August 22 update: Territorial stalemate. Zelensky toured Europe for support, including F-16s, while Putin addressed BRICS, decrying sanctions and promising Russian grain supply. Net territorial change in the past month: No significant change.
In the Thick of It
A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationship
"Russia becomes Europe’s biggest economy.” That’s the headline that Kremlin-funded RT’s editors put on a story they ran Aug. 4. The story went on to trumpet that “Russia was among the world’s five largest economies and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) as of the end of 2022, despite Western sanctions, the latest World Economics report has revealed.” Three days later, analytical resource bne IntelliNews, which is focused on emerging markets, published an article repeating these two claims. “In these terms Russia has just overtaken Germany to become the fifth wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe, worth $5.3 trillion,” the report said, without citation.
But are these claims accurate? We consulted the World Bank’s and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) databases, which both offer the following methodologically different approaches toward measuring countries’ GDP in terms of purchasing power parity: (1) absolute value of GDP, PPP, measured in current dollars, (2) absolute value of GDP, PPP, measured in constant 2017 international dollars, and (3) countries’ shares in world GDP, PPP, also measured in constant dollars. Only the first of these three approaches (GDP, PPP, in current dollars) supports the dual claim that Russia has become Europe’s largest and the world’s fifth largest economy in 2022 (see Table 1). The other two methods (GDP, PPP, in constant dollars and share of world’s GDP, PPP, in constant dollars) ran counter to these two claims, showing that Russia was Europe’s second largest economy after Germany, as well as the world’s sixth largest economy in 2022 (see Tables 2 and 3).
August 15 update: No significant territorial changes. Russia fired warning shots, boarded, and searched a Palau-flagged cargo ship heading to Ukraine in Black Sea international waters. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +10 square miles.
August 8 update: Territorial stalemate. Saudi Arabia hosted talks on Ukraine’s peace plan attended by 40 countries including China, which said it was open to attending further talks. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +25 square miles.
Aug. 1 update: No significant territorial changes. Ukraine began a new push in their counteroffensive, according to US and Russian officials. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +14 square miles.
July 25 update: No significant territorial changes. Russia struck a Ukrainian port on the Danube, while drones hit two buildings in Moscow. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +12 square miles.
July 18 update: Continued territorial stalemate. A drone attack damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea, and Russia launched a retaliatory strike on Odesa. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +35 square miles.
July 12 update: No major territorial changes. NATO said Ukraine will eventually become a member, waiving the membership action plan and offering support, but gave no timeline. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +37 square miles.
In the aftermath of PMC Wagner's rebellion, poll results reveal the shifting views of Russians toward Prigozhin, Putin and more.
July 5 update: No significant territorial change. Ukraine and Russia accused each other of planning to attach the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +143 square miles.
