In the Thick of It

A blog on the U.S.-Russia relationship
Tefft (right) and former Secretary of State John Kerry
On the eve of his departure as U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Tefft (pictured above, right) sat down for a lengthy interview with the Russian daily Kommersant. Needless to say, the changing of the guard at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow—Tefft’s successor, Jon Huntsman, presented his credentials to President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 3—comes at a low-point in U.S.-Russian diplomatic relations.

Among the topics broached in Tefft’s interview were Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria and the retaliatory expulsions of diplomats that has left the Moscow embassy short-staffed—severely so, in Tefft’s view. Still, the outgoing ambassador suggested that he saw promise for U.S.-Russian cooperation on several fronts, including Syria and North Korea, and he was receptive to a Russian plan to deploy U.N. peacekeepers in Ukraine—with some big caveats. At the same time, Tefft bluntly insisted that Russia needed to acknowledge meddling in the election and to restore Ukraine’s “territorial integrity.”
One topic that was notably absent from Tefft’s interview was arms control, even as differences between Moscow and Washington threaten to kill the INF Treaty and hobble the Treaty on Open Skies. What follows are highlights of the interview, back-translated from Kommersant. (We presume the interview was in English, but no transcript was publicly available at the time of publication.)
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New START warheads
The U.S. State Department released new figures on compliance with the New START Treaty on Oct. 1. The numbers of U.S. and Russian warheads and delivery systems have continued to decline, undermining earlier speculation that Russia may fail to meet the treaty’s central requirements by the Feb. 5, 2018, deadline. We remain confident that Russia will meet the requirements on time. To do so, it must simply retire some more Soviet-era MIRV’ed ICBMs. As noted by Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, Russia “is now only 11 warheads above the New START treaty limit of 1,550 warheads … [and] is already below the treaty limit on deployed launchers as well as deployed and non-deployed launchers.” The latest data on systems covered by the treaty can be found in our Facts section, while Dr. Kristensen’s detailed explainer on Russia’s nuclear modernization can be found at this link.
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Russian servicemen in Aleppo
Two years ago this month, Russia launched its military intervention in Syria. This step was almost instantly criticized by the Obama administration, with the U.S. president warning that Vladimir Putin is dragging his country into a quagmire. The Russian military operations in Syria have proved at times to be brutal and indiscriminate, causing many civilian deaths—nearly 4,000 in the first year of its campaign alone, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which continues to blame Russia for scores of civilian deaths with grim regularity. But has Russia gotten stuck in a quagmire or has it achieved any of its goals? Take a look at this presentation that Russia Matters director Simon Saradzhyan gave on Moscow’s objectives and interests in Syria shortly after Russian warplanes launched their first strikes and decide for yourself.
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Mikhail Gorbachev in front of Berlin Wall sculpture in Fulton, Missouri

With all the talk lately of a “new Cold War” between the U.S. and Russia, historian Odd Arne Westad’s latest book is a timely one. “The Cold War: A World History” examines the conflict from its ideological roots in the late 19th century through the collapse of the Soviet Union. In it, Westad offers keen insights into how the Cold War and its dénouement have given rise to the current conflict between Russia and the West, as well as the ascendance of China and the emergence of a multipolar world order. Westad, who teaches at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, recently discussed these topics in a book talk and in an essay called “The Cold War and America’s Delusion of Victory in the New York Times. What follow are key points from the talk and the essay, some paraphrased and some directly quoted.

  • “The Cold War: A World History” is “not an attempt to say, ‘If we only understand how the Cold War ideological divide works, we will understand everything about the 20th century,’” Westad said at the talk. “But I would probably argue the opposite: If we want to understand the Cold War, we have to understand how it fits into the 20th century.”
  • Westad examines the Cold War through three significant turning points:
    • The split between social democrats in Europe and communists, which allowed the former to continue to develop without being labeled communist.
    • The Korean War, the first hot war of the conflict, which led to the militarization of the two superpowers on a global scale.
    • And the 1970s—a decade typically seen as a moment of American weakness, but in fact a time when the globalization of capital allowed the U.S. to buy into markets in Asia, while the U.S.S.R. remained isolated.
  • As China increasingly embraced the free market, the space for the Soviet Union to operate narrowed—which would prove to be a major factor in its collapse. Westad takes issue with the idea that Ronald Reagan’s hardline stance toward the Soviet Union was the main reason for its demise. While this may have contributed to Moscow’s isolation, Westad notes that Reagan was a willing negotiator on everything from nuclear weapons to regional conflicts.
  • The flawed belief that the Cold War had been won by the West would have lasting consequences. The West bought into two versions of post-Cold War triumphalism, Westad writes in his essay: “First was the Clinton version, which promoted a prosperity agenda of market values on a global scale. Its lack of purpose in international affairs was striking, but its domestic political instincts were probably right: Americans were tired of foreign entanglements and wanted to enjoy ‘the peace dividend.’ As a result, the 1990s was a lost opportunity for international cooperation, particularly to combat disease, poverty and inequality. The second was the Bush version. Where President Bill Clinton emphasized prosperity, President George W. Bush emphasized predominance.”
  • U.S. actions in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East can be directly traced to this flawed understanding: “As America entered a new century, its main aim should have been to bring other nations into the fold of international norms and the rule of law, especially as its own power diminishes. Instead, the United States did what declining superpowers often do: engage in futile, needless wars far from its borders, in which short-term security is mistaken for long-term strategic goals,” Westad writes.
  • There were also lost opportunities in the 1990s for greater cooperation with Russia. More should have been done to “link Russia in” with the European Union, especially through security cooperation. “Both the West and Russia would have been considerably more secure today if the chance for Russia to join the European Union, and possibly even NATO, had at least been kept open in the 1990s,” Westad writes. (In remarks made last year, Westad noted that, in hindsight, the biggest problem in the 1990s with regard to Eastern Europe was the lack of will to build structures in which Russia could participate, especially in terms of economic integration.)
  • As a result of this flawed approach, America is “less prepared than it could have been to deal with the big challenges of the future: the rise of China and India, the transfer of economic power from West to East, and systemic challenges like climate change and disease epidemics,” Westad writes.
  • On the Russian side, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a disaster and the “ultimate tragedy,” as Westad noted in his talk. The U.S.S.R. had gone from a superpower to nearly irrelevant in the span of years, naturally leading to feelings of discontent among Russians, who had been under repression for decades and now faced dire economic woes and a complete collapse of familiar institutions. “The collapse left Russians feeling déclassé and usurped,” Westad writes. Meanwhile, the West applauded the economic reforms under Boris Yeltsin, which were disastrous for Russia. In this context, the rise of Vladimir Putin and his promise to restore Russia’s lost glory is understandable.
  • The prime beneficiary of the end of the Cold War is China, which is now well integrated into the world economy and is directly challenging U.S. hegemony. “Russia and China, unlike the Soviet Union, are not likely to seek isolation or global confrontation,” Westad writes. “They will attempt to nibble away at American interests and dominate their regions. But neither China nor Russia is willing or able to mount a global ideological challenge backed by military power. Rivalries may lead to conflicts, or even local wars, but not of the systemic Cold War kind.”
  • Westad cautions against a false romanticism of the Cold War period. His book is meant in part to show younger generations that it was in fact “a dismal epoch” in history, he said. There was little sense of security and balance; rather, it was an incredibly dangerous time, with the superpowers often poised on the brink of war.

Kevin Dolye is a masters-degree candidate at Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and a student associate at Russia Matters.

Photo courtesy of the Missouri State Archives.

The opinions expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author.

Chinese ship
As the Russian and Chinese navies hold joint war games for the second time this year, experts can’t help but wonder whether the growing size and geographic range of such exercises mean that Moscow and Beijing are moving closer to a military pact. “They are building a de facto alliance,” leading Russian military expert Vasily Kashin told the Wall Street Journal in reference to the second stage of Joint Sea-2017, which is set to begin this week. “They want to understand on a granular level how their two militaries can cooperate.”
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Capitol
This week, thanks to BuzzFeed, we learned that back in March Vladimir Putin thought he could strike a deal with Donald Trump to reset the bilateral relationship and had submitted an ambitious proposal calling for the “wholesale restoration of diplomatic, military and intelligence channels.” What does this say about the Russian leader’s understanding of American politics? Is he under the impression that a U.S. president can single-handedly reverse U.S. policy on a major international issue with no regard for opposition from official and unofficial branches of power, including Congress, the media and the public? That certainly seems to be the case.
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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met on sidelines of the G20 summit in Germany on July 7, 2017
Pew has just released a summary of its Spring 2017 survey of residents of 37 American, Asian, African and European countries who were asked to express their views on Russia, the United States and China – and the results are remarkable. A median of only 26 percent of those surveyed have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin to “do the right thing regarding world affairs,” while a median of 60 percent have no such confidence. This was still, however, sufficient for the Russian leader to beat out U.S. President Donald Trump. Respondents in as many as 22 out of 36 countries trust Putin more than Trump, according to the poll. (In Tanzania, an equal share of respondents trusted Putin and Trump.) It is quite astounding that in spite of having taken Crimea from Ukraine, stirred trouble in Donbass, and intervened militarily in Syria, Putin is still enjoying greater confidence than Trump in the majority of the countries polled.
Perhaps Trump would do well to reflect upon his foreign policy, given the fact that more people trust the leader of the country that NATO’s leadership has described as an adversary, including in such NATO countries as Germany, France, Greece and Italy, as well as Japan and South Korea. In addition to flaws in Trump’s policies, the results may also reflect the fact that not all residents of the surveyed countries necessarily share the West’s mistrust of Russia.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu relaxing shirtless on a boat in Siberia.
That Vladimir Putin went spearfishing the other day isn’t surprising. He’s reportedly done it before, as have Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Medvedev’s deputy Dmitry Rogozin and even Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. But never before this weekend’s Siberia trip has there been footage of the president actually shooting fish, as released by NTV, the Defense Ministry’s Zvezda channel and then RT.

Alas, while shots of Putin’s spearfishing expedition may impress those with no knowledge of the sport (likely the bulk of his voters), seasoned spearos in and out of Russia, who know about diving for fish “on breath hold,” will see little more than a novice—no matter how many times state-controlled TV channels tell them the Russian president “chased a giant pike for two hours before catching it with [his] bare hands.”
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Trump and Putin shaking hands

Donald Trump’s seeming admiration for Vladimir Putin—whether real or imagined, reciprocal or unilateral—has spawned much speculation. The story dates back at least to 2013, when, ahead of the Miss Universe pageant he had brought to Moscow, Trump wondered if the Russian president would show up and “become my new best friend.” As president, amid mounting talk of possible collusion between his campaign and Russia, Trump has tried to distance himself from Putin—backtracking on earlier claims that they’d spoken “directly” and had a “relationship”—but the two leaders’ much-longer-than-planned July meeting in Germany and the bonhomie that followed suggest that the U.S. president’s positive feelings for Putin have endured.

So how to explain this apparent affection? We submit eight hypotheses, with the caveat that no single explanation will likely suffice and that a combination of the factors outlined below might be at play. And we’re asking readers to weigh in: Which do you think is the most plausible? Or perhaps you have your own theory? If so, select “Other” and explain in the comments.

Hypothesis 1: The Kissinger worldview. Trump’s affinity for Putin may be based on the pragmatic recognition that good relations with Russia are important to advancing a number of vital U.S. interests, not least of them counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and avoiding a nuclear war. Trump shares the viewpoint of Henry Kissinger, who has cast Russia as America’s “Siamese twin” in maintaining a semblance of world order. Here’s some direct evidence:

  • Trump has met with Kissinger on several occasions to seek advice; Putin regularly meets with Kissinger for informal discussions with a view to have his points relayed to policymakers in the U.S. (See our collection of Kissinger’s insights and recommendations on Russia.) In his public statements, Trump has suggested that good relations with Putin’s Russia are a matter of realpolitik:
    • “Folks, we have perhaps the second most powerful nuclear country in the world. If you don't have dialogue, you have to be fools,” he said. (CNN, 07.13.17, Reuters, 07.13.17)
    • “Wouldn't it be nice if we got along with the world, and maybe Russia could help us in our quest to get rid of ISIS?” (New York Times, 03.04.16)
    • U.S. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham—who consider Russia a major threat—“should focus their energies on ISIS, illegal immigration and border security instead of always looking to start World War III.” (Politico, 01.29.17)

Hypothesis 2: Admiration for strong leaders. Putin’s management style—that of an unrestricted, sole decision-maker—comes close to that of a powerful business executive, an approach Trump prides himself on bringing to the management of the country. Trump may have a predisposition for strong leaders who can make difficult decisions and execute them, overriding dissent and avoiding the continuous weighing of pros and cons, as exemplified, in Trump’s view, by former President Barack Obama. Here’s some direct evidence:

  • Trump has repeatedly praised Putin’s strong leadership, during and after his presidential campaign. (See our collection of Trump’s comments on Putin.) During a Republican presidential debate, Trump said: “I think Putin has been a very strong leader for Russia. I think he has been a lot stronger than our leader, that I can tell you. … I don’t say that in a good way or a bad way. I say it as a fact.” (CNN, 03.15.16)
  • Trump said of Putin during a town hall ahead of the election: “The man has very strong control over a country. Now, it's a very different system, and I don't happen to like the system. But certainly, in that system, he's been a leader, far more than our president has been a leader.” (Washington Post, 09.07.16)
  • Trump continued to draw a distinction between Putin and Obama after he took office. “For eight years Russia 'ran over' President Obama, got stronger and stronger, picked-off Crimea and added missiles. Weak!” Trump tweeted. (Twitter, 03.07.17)

Hypothesis 3: Respect for Russia’s history of resilience and strength. Trump might be admiring not just Putin personally but Russians’ role in history, as fighters against Napoleon, Hitler and Genghis Kahn. Trump respects Putin for his effort to rebuild the military strength of Russia and recapture some of the glory of the Russian Empire.

  • Direct evidence: Speaking about the historical reputation of the Russian military, Trump said: “The Russians have great fighters in the cold. They use the cold to their advantage. I mean, they’ve won five wars where the armies that went against them froze to death. … It’s pretty amazing.” (New York Times, 07.19.17)
  • Circumstantial evidence: Shortly after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, which drew international condemnation, Trump tweeted: “I believe Putin will continue to re-build the Russian Empire. He has zero respect for Obama or the U.S.!” (Twitter, 03.21.14)
  • Big “but”: At the same time, Trump is not known for his appreciation for or mastery of history. He reportedly has a short attention span and little interest in reading. He also stirred up a great deal of criticism from historians with comments he made this spring about the Civil War and Andrew Jackson. (CNN, 05.22.17)

Hypothesis 4: Cultural affinity for Russians. Trump might feel a cultural affinity for Russians in general. If true, this likely has less to do with Pushkin and Prokofiev than with certain common traits of Americans and Russians. Both share a kind of “W­ild West” mentality, having conquered large swaths of territory, and their citizens have a reputation for being resourceful, assertive or even brash, often too much so for the taste of Western Europeans. Here’s some circumstantial evidence:

  • In October 2013, Trump told “Late Show” host David Letterman: “I’ve done a lot of business with the Russians. They’re smart and they’re tough and they’re not looking so dumb right now… He’s a tough guy, Putin.” (YouTube, 10.22.13)
  • In February 2014, Trump said on “Fox and Friends”: “When I went to Russia with the Miss Universe pageant, [Putin] contacted me and was so nice. I mean, the Russian people were so fantastic to us… I’ll just say this, they are doing—they’re outsmarting us at many turns, as we all understand. I mean, their leaders are, whether you call them smarter or more cunning or whatever, but they’re outsmarting us.” (Archive.org, 02.014.17)
  • Anthony Scaramucci, a financier and ardent Trump backer who would briefly serve as the president’s communications director, said that Western sanctions against Russia had backfired “in some ways … because of Russian culture. I think the Russians would eat snow if they had to.” (Newsweek, 07.21.17)

Hypothesis 5: He’s a contrarian. Perhaps Trump, who has shown a willingness to buck conventional wisdom and court controversy for the sake of publicity, isn’t really enamored of Putin. Rather, he has expressed admiration for him precisely because others in the West lambasted him after the Ukrainian crisis erupted. He might have even changed his opinion of Putin, whatever it really was, but clung to his public views feeling some sort of pressure to remain consistent. Here’s some circumstantial evidence:

  • Trump has expressed other views related to Russia that are highly unorthodox, especially in Republican circles. In 2013, Trump sided with Putin after he took issue with then-President Obama’s use of the term “American exceptionalism”: “You think of the term as being fine, but all of sudden you say, what if you’re in Germany or Japan or any one of 100 different countries? You’re not going to like that term,” Trump told CNN. “It’s very insulting and Putin really put it to him [Obama] about that.” (BuzzFeed, 08.01.16)
  • In response to the claim that Putin is a “killer,” Trump said: “There are a lot of killers. Do you think our country is so innocent?” (CNN, 02.06.17)
  • Ahead of the vote in Congress in late July for a new set of sanctions against Russia, his then-communications director Anthony Scaramucci said that Trump “may sign the sanctions exactly the way they are, or he may veto the sanctions and negotiate an even tougher deal against the Russians.” He cited Trump’s “counterintuitive, counterpunching personality” to explain why the president is considering a veto. (AP, 07.27.17)

Hypothesis 6: Ideological affinity. Trump (or, rather, some of his advisors) might admire the conservative values that Putin has been championing and that the West has been gradually losing. Both leaders have stressed the importance of faith and cultivated ties with religious groups, the Russian Orthodox Church in Putin’s case and conservative Christian groups in Trump’s. Here’s some circumstantial evidence:

  • Trump hired as his chief advisor Steve Bannon, an outspoken critic of Western liberalism. Bannon has stated that the greatest mistake the baby boomers made was to reject the traditional “Judeo-Christian” values of their parents. In a 2014 talk at the Vatican, Bannon made it clear that Putin was “playing very strongly to U.S. social conservatives about his message about more traditional values.” As a recent Atlantic essay argued, Putin has realized that “large patches of the West despised feminism and the gay-rights movement,” and he has transformed himself into the “New World Leader of Conservatism,” whose traditionalism offers an alternative to the libertine West that has long shunned him. (The Atlantic, 03.27.17)
  • Trump has himself staked out such positions. In a July 2017 speech in Warsaw (which was believed to have been heavily influenced by Bannon), Trump declared: “The people of Poland, the people of America and the people of Europe still cry out ‘We want God.’” (New York Times, 07.11.17, The White House, 07.06.17)
  • While Trump signaled support for LGBT rights during his campaign, he recently announced, in a stark reversal from a policy instituted by former President Obama, that trans-gender people would be banned from the military. The move was one of several that antagonized gay-rights groups. (CNN, 06.13.16, New York Times, 07.27.17)

Hypothesis 7: Financial gain. Trump might view a good relationship with Putin as a way to further expand his business empire. In this way, Trump’s approach to Putin represents a continuation of efforts dating back to the late 1980s to build relationships with powerful Russian government and business leaders. Here’s some circumstantial evidence:

  • Trump wrote in his 1987 book “Art of the Deal” that he was interested in partnering with the Soviet government to build a luxury hotel in Moscow, and he planned to give then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev a tour of Trump Tower in 1988. (The Washington Post, 12.03.88)
  • The Trump family and its businesses have reportedly long pursued Russian investors and deals in Russia and former Soviet republics. In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. told a real estate conference that he had been averaging a trip to Russia about every three months for the past year and a half, but suggested that the Trump Organization, the family business, didn’t have the adequate connections to safeguard investments: “It is definitely not an issue of being able to find a deal—but an issue of ‘Will I ever see my money back out of that deal or can I actually trust the person I am doing the deal with?’ As much as we want to take our business over there, Russia is just a different world. … [I]t is a question of who knows who, whose brother is paying off who, etc.” He added: “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross section of a lot of our assets. … We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.” (New Republic, 07.13.17, New York Magazine, 07.11.17, McClatchy, 06.28.17, USA Today, 02.15.17, The Daily Beast, 01.11.17)
  • Unlike past presidents, Trump has refused to place his business holdings and investments into a blind trust; he has instead placed them in a “revocable trust,” controlled by his adult sons, and the president was able, as of April, “to withdraw profits and underlying assets from his trust at any time.” (CNBC, 06.12.17, BBC, 04.18.17, ProPublica, 04.04.17, Politico, 01.11.17)

Hypothesis 8: Russia has compromising materials on him. Trump may feel compelled to stay on Putin’s good side because the Russians might have kompromat—compromising materials—on him. The existence of kompromat was a central claim in the so-called Steele dossier, compiled by former British intelligence agent Christopher Steele as part of opposition research against Trump during the 2016 campaign. The document alleges that the Kremlin had been “cultivating, supporting and assisting” Trump for at least five years and amassed a file on him that includes videos of him engaged in lurid sexual activities. Here’s some speculative, uncorroborated evidence:

  • The Steele report alleges that there was an “extensive conspiracy” between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin that was “sanctioned at the highest levels.” If there were contacts between the campaign and Russian officials that have not been revealed, this may give the Kremlin some leverage over Trump. All sources in the Steele report are anonymous, and only a few of its claims have been independently confirmed since it surfaced publicly in early 2017. However, the FBI is investigating allegations of collusion under the oversight of an independent special counsel. The supposedly compromising materials against Hillary Clinton that were promised to Donald Trump Jr. ahead of his controversial June 2016 meeting with a Russian lawyer allegedly came from Russia’s prosecutor general, who has been described as a master of kompromat. (Steele report, Jan. 2017, New York Times, 07.17.17)
  • Citing three sources, the Steele report describes a specific sexual encounter involving Trump and multiple women in a suite at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in 2013. But like all sources in the report, these are anonymous, and there’s been no independent confirmation of the incident or other sexual allegations. Moreover, the negligible damage to Trump’s presidential aspirations done by the “Access Hollywood” scandal casts some doubt on the idea that such kompromat would give the Kremlin sway over him. (Steele report, Jan. 2017)
  • Media reports have said that Trump owes much of his wealth to “a flow of highly suspicious money from Russia,” including millions in illicitly gained funds. As the New Republic recently reported, “To date, no one has documented that Trump was even aware of any suspicious entanglements in his far-flung businesses, let alone that he was directly compromised by the Russian mafia or the corrupt oligarchs who are closely allied with the Kremlin. So far, when it comes to Trump’s ties to Russia, there is no smoking gun.” This, of course, raises the question: Might the Russian government have one?

What best explains Trumps seeming admiration for Putin?

Choices
Gloomy black and white Moscow, Russia.
Russia’s decision to expel hundreds of U.S. diplomats represents a dangerous turn in bilateral relations and could easily accelerate a dangerous escalatory spiral.
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