5 Things to Know

1. After a pause in America’s arms deliveries to Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump announced July 7 the resumption of supplies, citing intensified Russian attacks and Ukraine’s urgent air defense needs. Trump said he had authorized primarily “defensive weapons,” which may include interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems. Trump's team will also identify arms from U.S. stockpiles to send to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), sources told Reuters, with one saying the supplies could be worth $300 million. This is the first use of the PDA in the second presidency of Trump—who has this week begun to use sharp language to express his displeasure with Putin’s refusal to stop fighting, and who promised to make a "major statement" on Russia next week. In addition, Trump is “very strongly” considering supporting a Senate bill that would slap a 500% “bone-crushing” tariff on those countries that trade with the U.S. that also purchase Russian oil and uranium. Per Trump’s insistence, the current draft of the bill, which its co-sponsors expect to pass this month, allows the president to waive the tariff, according to Politico.
2. The past week saw Russia set two records in the number of aerial attack vehicles launched in single barrages at Ukraine. First, Russia launched a record of 550 such vehicles on July 4, including a record total of 539 Iran-designed drones as well as 11 cruise and ballistic missiles, according to Financial Times. Then on July 9, Russia launched 741 aerial attack vehicles, including 728 drones and 13 missiles, according to AFP.As Russia’s defense industry continues to ramp up, military analysts expect Russia to routinely launch more than 1,000 drones per volley by autumn, according to The New York Times.
3. In the past month (June 10–July 8, 2025), Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukrainian territory (an area slightly less than two Nantucket islands). That represents a slight decrease from the previous month’s (May 13–June 10, 2025) total of 223 square miles, according to the July 9, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. 
4. Of Ukrainian officials, current Ambassador to the U.K. and former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is the most trusted by Ukrainians, according to a poll conducted by Ukraine’s Rating Group on July 4-5. The poll, which allowed multiple answers, found that Zaluzhnyi—who enjoys the trust of 73% of Ukrainians—is followed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (67%) and the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov (56%), according to Ukrainska Pravda.
5. The EU is urgently exploring ways to cover a shortfall of up to $19 billion in Ukraine’s budget next year, according to Financial Times. This budget hole looms as one of Ukraine's main funding vehicles—a $50 billion loan from the U.S. and EU, backed by the interest from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets—is to run out by the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg Economics.

6 Ideas to Explore

1. “As the war grinds on ..., it's worth questioning the conventional wisdom that neither side can win on the battlefield. Which is to say, Ukraine can lose,” Lee Hockstader writes in his July 4 column in The Washington Post. Hockstader argues that “the chances of that outcome have risen considerably in recent days” due, in part, to the Trump administration’s decision to suspend delivery of certain arms to Ukraine, including interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems. “One has to wonder how many more such blows [like halting U.S. arms supplies] Ukraine—badly outmanned, struggling with personnel shortages and lacking Russia’s strategic depth—can withstand,” he warns.
2. “Russia now controls more than two-thirds of Donetsk. But to seize the rest of the region, it must take urban centers still under Ukraine’s control and vital to its army logistics,” Constant Méheut, Olha Konovalova and David Guttenfelder write in The New York Times. Russian strikes around this region’s city of Kostiantynivka, which is a primary target for Russian forces, have already become so constant that “Ukrainian troops avoid leaving their underground shelters altogether,” the three authors report. Still, the battle for this city could “take months to play out,” they predict.
3. “If you want to defend the U.S., you have to make sure that three things are secure. You need a secure Arctic … You need a secure Atlantic … And you need a secure Europe, because Russia’s here, and Russia is reconstituting itself at an incredible pace—not to attack Norway, but to attack ultimately the U.S.,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte claimed in an interview with The New York Times. It is difficult to see how Russia would initiate an attack on the U.S., given that both possess enormous nuclear arsenals.
4. China does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, according to South China Morning Post.
5. Ukraine’s political infighting has escalated, with Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov charged with corruption, a cabinet reshuffle imminent and a failed (for now) attempt to oust military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, according to the Economist. Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, is seen as driving these moves, though Zelenskyy retains final authority, according to this U.K. media outlet. According to the Economist, an opaque co-dependency has emerged between Zelenskyy and Yermak as Ukraine navigates war and internal power struggles. Referring to these circumstances, one Ukrainian official told the Economist: “The Russians are slow-roasting us over a low flame while we are playing at idiotism with very serious consequences.”
6. Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 27 gigawatts (GW) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW to the combination of Russia’s occupation and strikes,  Romina Bandura and Alexander Romanishyn write in a report for CSIS. The two authors argue that a strategy of survival through energy decentralization should be adopted to mitigate these losses, warning that the “next two years are critical for Ukraine’s energy security.”

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

July 8 update: Russian territorial gains in Ukraine over the last week slowed to 18 square miles—Russia’s lowest weekly rate since the week of April 22–29, 2025, when it gained 14 square miles. The past week saw Russia set at least two records in the number of drones and missiles launched in single barrages (550 on July 4 and 741 on July 9) despite Trump expressing dismay with Putin for “killing too many people” and threatening the Russian leader (again) with more sanctions.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of July 8, 2025)