3 Things to Know

1. Data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group indicates that in the past four weeks (May 12–June 9, 2026), Russian forces endured a net loss of 1 square mile. In comparison, the previous four-week period (April 14–May 12, 2026) saw Russia make a net gain of 41 square miles, according to the June 10 issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week (June 2–9), Russian armed forces made a net gain of 6 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to DeepState, an increase over the reported loss of 10 square miles the previous week (May 26–June 2, 2026). In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (May 12–June 9, 2026) assesses that Russia lost a net of 91 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, and during the past week (June 2–9, 2026), lost 10 square miles of Ukrainian territory. Speaking in the Kremlin before Russian participants in the Russian-Ukrainian war on June 12, Vladimir Putin said: “We are making progress; perhaps not as quickly as we would like, but we are moving forward every day.”
2. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now lasted more than 1,568 days, longer than WWI, according to reports by NYT and Meduza, which underscore that the conflict has become a grinding industrial war of attrition rather than a short, maneuver-centric campaign. “This is World War I, but with drones,” Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian who has recently explored similarities and differences between the two wars, told NYT.
3. NATO’s top U.S. commander, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, said intelligence shows that Russia is not looking for a conflict with the alliance. “I’ve watched the intelligence very closely,” the Supreme Allied Commander Europe said at an event in Berlin this week, according to FT. “Russia is not looking for a conflict… They do understand the term ‘defensive alliance,’ and they do understand that we have a number of asymmetric advantages.” The United States plans to reduce the number of its F‑16/F‑15E fighters in Europe from about 150 to 100 and maritime patrol aircraft from 26 to 15, also removing all 8 aerial refueling tankers. Washington will also withdraw one aircraft carrier strike group carrier, according to NYT, FT and WP.

NB: Next week’s Russia in Review will appear on Thursday, June 18, instead of Friday, June 19, because of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday.

5 Ideas to Explore

1. A new report by CSIS calls for a “two-war planning construct” to “deter and defeat two major powers simultaneously: China in the Indo-Pacific and Russia in Europe,” prioritizing “the Indo-Pacific first and Europe second.” The CSIS authors urge a new offset strategy built around “air-sea battle in the Indo-Pacific and air-land battle in Europe” that mixes “advanced and lower-cost unmanned systems with long-range precision strike and nuclear modernization.” The new strategy would prioritize “the Indo-Pacific first and Europe second, as well as deterring and, if necessary, defeating two major powers simultaneously with significant allied and partner involvement,” according to the report.
2. Given that the current stalemate at the front is costly for both Moscow and Kyiv, this may be “the best possible opportunity for peace” the war in Ukraine has yet offered, Michael Froman of CFR argues in a commentary entitled “A Turning Point in Ukraine.” Froman is echoed by Fareed Zakaria, who argues in WP that “in recent months, the tide has turned… in ways that make peace finally possible.” Zakaria explains how Ukraine is not “close to an easy victory,” while “Putin’s twin theories of victory… that Ukraine was weak and that the West would tire... have collapsed.” Given that and America’s leverage vis-à-vis the warring sides, “this is Trump’s opportunity” to co-broker a peace deal jointly with Europe that “deserves to be called historic,” according to Zakaria. In contrast, Angela Stent of the American Enterprise Institute does not presently appear to share Froman’s optimism. “We really haven't gotten any further in toward a negotiation,” she told PBS on June 5. Stent believes that Vladimir Putin’s decision to reject Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent call for direct peace talks—which the Ukrainian leader made in a letter to his Russian counterpart—is a signal that Putin “believes that Russia can still prevail.” Stent’s view of Putin’s vision for where the conflict is headed is close to Tatyana Stanovaya’s. In Putin’s view, as described by Stanovaya of CEIP and R. Politik, “The West is decaying, the United States is losing hegemony, Ukraine is falling apart, its army is disintegrating, Europe is in chaos, Russia is advancing on all fronts, victory is inevitable, the economy will hold out, the people will support [the government],” she writes in a commentary for CEIP.
3. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb argues that “Europe should talk to Putin,” proposing a phased diplomatic process. “We have to do this together with the Americans, but at the same time ask ourselves whether American foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine is currently in Europe’s interest. If not—and in certain aspects it is not—then we must get involved. But in a coordinated way. Ideally, the first step would come from the European Union, and if that fails, from the E3, that is France, Germany, Great Britain, and if that too fails, we would have to find another format,” Stubb said in an interview with NZZ.
4. The mobilization of 300,000–500,000 troops in Russia could become a turning point in the war, Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko warns in an interview with project "Zhovti Kedi with Yulia Borisko.” The war could also reach a turning point if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons at the front, Kostenko claims, adding that such a scenario “cannot be ruled out.” The MP—who is the secretary of the parliament’s security, defense and intelligence committee and a member of Rada’s Holos faction—claims that Russia might employ tactical nukes “to break through the forward edge of defense.” While credible sources, such as former director of the CIA William Burns, assessed that there was a "genuine risk" that Russia might use nuclear weapons during the Russian forces’ Fall 2022 large-scale retreat, no such large-scale retreat has been recorded so far this year.*
5. Russia’s recent dispute over Internet shutdowns was not an existential crisis, but a clash between bureaucratic groups defending their interests, according to Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Endowment. The security establishment ultimately prevailed in the clash, with online restrictions “normalized” as Putin instructed the Federal Security Service and the federal government to keep key online services operating, Prokopenko writes in a commentary entitled “Russia’s Elite Conflict Over Internet Restrictions Does Not Herald Regime Collapse.” Prokopenko describes how the recent Internet blackouts angered presidential administration officials and the propaganda bloc under Alexei Gromov, who rely on the Internet and Telegram to prepare for September elections to the Russian parliament. They pushed back through leaks and by weaponizing “Putin’s own approval rating,” as government-linked pollsters abruptly reported sharp drops in that approval, Prokopenko explains.  

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

June 9, 2026, update:¹ 

Data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group indicates that in the past four weeks (May 12–June 9, 2026) Russian forces endured a net loss of 1 square mile. In comparison, the previous four-week period (April 14–May 12, 2026) saw Russia make a net gain of 41 square miles. In the past week (June 2–9), Russian armed forces made a net gain of 6 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to DeepState, an increase over the reported loss of 10 square miles the previous week (May 26–June 2, 2026). In addition, DeepState reported in its daily map updates that Russian armed forces advanced near or in eight settlements during the June 2–9, 2026, period, while Ukrainian forces were not reported by DS to have made advances in that time.² In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (May 12–June 9, 2026) indicates that Russia lost a net of 91 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, and during the past week (June 2–9, 2026), lost 10 square miles of Ukrainian territory.³

Territorial Control (figures as of June 9, 2026)⁴