Though many Russian officials and pundits wonder whether the latest Pentagon leak was the product of a Western-Ukranian disinformation campaign, many others have kept mum on the issue, despite the fact that the contents of the leaks fall within their remit.

April 11 update: Russia and Ukraine remain locked in intense territorial stalemate. Leaked US documents, including information about Ukrainian air defense shortages, potentially complicate Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +21 square miles.

April 4 update: Continued territorial stalemate. Wagner Private Military Company leader Prigozhin said Wagner has suffered significant losses in Bakhmut battle against Ukraine. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +30 square miles.

March 28 update: No major changes—battlefield stalemate continues. Putin announced plans to deploy Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +40 square miles.

March 21 update: Stalemate, with continued intense fighting in Bakhmut. Putin met with Xi in Moscow, without visible progress towards peace. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +42 square miles.

March 14 Update: War remains essentially unchanged—stalemate. Russia and Ukraine remain locked in a slow, costly battle in Bakhmut. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +16 square miles.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has just released the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Unsurprisingly, one of the most notable changes in ATA-2023 compared to ATA-2022 is the addition of sections on various aspects of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact. In addition to Russia, the new assessment also details threats emanating from China, Iran, North Korea, climate change, environmental degradation and other transnational issues.  

The Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force has released this week's Report Card detailing various indicators of the war in Ukraine, including territorial control, military losses and economic and civilian costs.

This year’s Munich Security Conference focused heavily on the Russia-Ukraine war, which dominated both the public and private sessions. No Russian officials were invited, but several Russian opposition figures attended, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Milov, Zhanna Nemtsova, Yulia Navalnaya and 2022 Nobel Prize laureate Irina Shcherbakova. By contrast, Ukrainian officialdom and civil society were well represented. President Zelensky opened the conference virtually, thanking the United States, Europe and their Asian allies for their assistance, stressing the importance of the difficult next few months on the battlefield  and asking for more weapons, particularly fighter jets. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and speaker of the Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk spoke on panels with their U.S. and European counterparts, in Stefanchuk’s case with former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. There were other Rada members and veterans in attendance. Viktor Pinchuk’s harrowing photographic exhibit of Russian war crimes, which he had shown at the World Economic Forum in Davos, was on display in the conference hotel.

The Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force has released this week's Report Card detailing various indicators of the war in Ukraine, including territorial control, military losses and economic and civilian costs.