“When the nation’s intelligence chiefs go before Congress ... to provide their first public ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment’ of President Trump’s second term, ... do they stick with their long-running conclusion about President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, that his goal is to crush the Ukrainian government and ‘undermine the United States and the West?’ Or do they cast Mr. Putin in the terms Mr. Trump and his top negotiator with Russia are describing him with these days: as a trustworthy future business partner who simply wants to end a nasty war, get control of parts of Ukraine that are rightly his and resume a regular relationship with the United States?” That was the central question that NYT’s David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes asked in their March 24 preview of WTA-2025, entitled “Is Russia an Adversary or a Future Partner?”
The release of WTA-2025 on March 25 answered their question. “Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions ... Growing cooperation between and among these adversaries is increasing their fortitude against the United States, the potential for hostilities with any one of them to draw in another and pressure on other global actors to choose sides,” according to the assessment. The document, presented by director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and CIA director John Ratcliffe to the Senate’s intelligence committee, also had a section entitled “Adversarial Cooperation,” which opened with the proposition that “cooperation among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea has been ... reinforcing threats from each of them individually while also posing new challenges to U.S. strength and power globally,” and which described Russia as a “catalyst for the evolving ties” between this quartet.