October 17 update: Continued stalemate. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine’s first use of ATACMS missiles from US, against airfields in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +3 square miles.

October 10 update: No significant territorial change. Putin said Russia may withdraw from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +8 square miles.

October 3 update: Persistent stalemate. US short-term spending bill passed without Ukraine funding, but several months of short-term aid remains available. Net territorial change in the past month: Ukraine +7 square miles.

Speaking to BBC on Sept. 10, 2023, America’s outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Mark Milley predicted that the weather will continue to favor fighting in Ukraine until about Oct. 10-25. “There's still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days' worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren't done,” the general said. Milley, whose JCS role ends Oct. 1, could have a plausible weather forecast we do not have access to. Or he could be speaking from the experience of watching (and advising on one side) the Russian and Ukrainian forces as they battled each other last fall and winter. If so, does this very recent history (October 2022-February 2023) support the proposition that “Generals Mud and Frost” may force the Ukrainian and Russian forces to scale down combat and enter a seasonal stalemate? Here is what we have learned.

September 26 update: No significant territorial change. Zelensky said Ukraine's counteroffensive will not stop during winter and claimed Ukraine will liberate 3 more cities. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +15 square miles.

September 19 update: Continued stalemate. Zelensky and Biden appealed for support at the UN before Zelensky’s planned trip to Washington DC. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +19 square miles.

The Levada Center has just released the latest installment in its series of polls on which countries Russians consider to be “great” as well as on their general attitudes toward certain countries. The polls show that the share of Russians who view their own country as great has almost doubled in the past two decades from 43% in 2002 to 80% in 2023 (Table 1) in a clear reflection that both a recent streak of increases in Russia’s national power and the Kremlin’s consistent messaging on Russia’s “rise from its knees” during Vladimir Putin’s rule continue to have an impact on the Russian public.

In addition to increasingly seeing their own country as great, Russians also see a similar trend in China. In fact, the share of Levada respondents who view China as great has more than tripled, from 19% in 2002 to 63% in 2023, reflecting the steady strengthening of Moscow’s alignment with Beijing. The share of Russians who view India, with which Russia has enjoyed steadily positive relations, as great, has also nearly tripled, from 5% to 14% during the same period.  

September 12 update: No significant territorial change. Romania confirmed Russian parts fell into its territory on the border with Ukraine. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +12.

The results of the Levada Center’s latest installment in its series of polls on Russians’ attitudes’ toward Russia’s war in Ukraine indicate that the share of peaceniks exceed the share of war hawks among common Russians.

In fact, if adding the shares of those who definitely support and those who rather support the launch of peace negotiations (Option 1) with those who definitely support and those who rather support the continuation of the so-called special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine (Option 2), then total support for the launch of peace talks (Option 1) has exceeded total support for continued war (Option 2) in (almost) all monthly polls since September 2022,1 except for May 2023 (see Graph 1).

September 5 update: Ongoing territorial stalemate. Zelensky replaced Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov after several military recruitment and procurement scandals. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +12.