Analysts continue to debate what confluence of factors has shaped Vladimir Putin’s decision to  order the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Some heavyweights in the world of policy analysis, such as Robert Gates, have even begun to wonder whether Putin has lost his mind. But a closer look at the Russian leader’s changing views on Ukraine—highlights below—suggests that his recent behavior fits with his changing views on a broader topic: how to harness changes in the global order and Russia’s relations with the West, East and post-Soviet neighborhood to advance his country’s national interests as he saw them.

Early into his first term as an elected president in 2000-2004, Putin radiated optimism about what he believed would be a Euro-centric, or even an Atlantic-centric, future for Russia and some of its post-Soviet neighbors. It might be difficult to fathom today, but, in the early 2000s, Putin discussed Russia’s possible accession to NATO with Lord Robertson and reportedly Bill Clinton, and pursued a partnership with the alliance. Around the same time, Putin continued his predecessor’s policy of harmonizing Russia’s laws and regulations with the EU’s—even viewing Ukraine’s would-be membership in the bloc as a “positive factor.” “Of course, Russia is a very diverse country, but we are part of Western European culture,” Putin said in 2000. “No matter where our people live, in the Far East or in the south, we are Europeans.”

But, as historian Andrei Zorin recently observed, “every turn toward isolationism in Russia has happened, at least in the 20th century, after yet another failed attempt at ‘Europeanization.’” Putin, at the very start of his presidency 22 years ago, seemed to foresee such a prospect, sending an implicit warning to the West: “If they push us away, then we will be forced to find allies and reinforce ourselves. What else can we do?”

Indeed, as the years passed, and color revolutions and NATO expansion scrambled Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, Putin’s optimism dimmed. Hope for a fruitful, multipolar future on terms sought by Moscow gave way to frustration with what he saw as Western vilification of Russia, fears of sabotage and worries over Russia’s diminishing role on the global stage. This gradual hardening can be seen in many facets of Putin’s public speech but is perhaps most vividly illustrated by his views of NATO. In May 2002 he said Ukraine was entitled to decide on its own whether to join NATO and that he did not see such a decision as one that would “cloud” Russian-Ukrainian relations. But by late 2004—the year Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO, and when Ukraine’s Orange Revolution had hoisted to power the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko—Putin’s mood had changed: “If Ukraine were to join the EU this would be a positive factor that, unlike NATO expansion, would help strengthen the system of international relations,” the Kremlin paraphrased him as saying.

Since then, Putin has grown increasingly convinced that NATO expansion undermines Russian security while delivering no meaningful security benefit for the alliance—particularly after Ukraine had begun to lobby in earnest for a NATO membership action plan during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko. By 2014, discussing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Putin linked it directly to his concerns about NATO expansion. “We wanted to support the residents of Crimea, but we also followed a certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: ‘This doesn’t concern you,’ and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory. … If NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area.” In 2021, Putin expressed concern about the “deployment of NATO infrastructure” on Ukrainian territory. By February 2022, days before ordering his troops to invade Ukraine, Putin said the threat of Ukraine being accepted into NATO was ultimately a threat against Russia.

Another common theme of Putin’s Ukraine rhetoric over the years has been its shared history with Russia. This has served shifting purposes in projecting Russian power—from early inspiration for increased cooperation between sovereign neighbors to Putin’s contention that Ukraine and Russia are “one people” and “one nation.” Accordingly, Putin’s views of Russia’s role vis-à-vis Ukraine also appear to have shifted—from the fraternal (in his early presidency), to the paternalistic. Increasingly, claims that the West is threatening what the Kremlin viewed as a special relationship between Russia and Ukraine began cropping up in Putin’s remarks. In 2020, he contended that an unidentified “they” will “do anything to pull us apart.” In 2021 he wrote that it is important for Russia to know that Ukraine “is defending its national interests but not serving someone else's.” In the same commentary, he described Kyiv as “indulging neo-Nazis and militarizing the country” and, worse still, falling under “direct external control,” with “foreign advisers,” presumably Western, supervising “Ukrainian authorities, security services and armed forces.”

What becomes apparent from our review of 22 years of official statements is that, typically, Putin has publicly signaled shifts in his views on Ukraine before translating them into actual policies. Some of these, such as the ongoing aggression toward Ukraine, may reflect Putin’s failure to accurately anticipate the costs and benefits of implementation. However, such failures, as Mark Cancian and others have argued, do not mean Putin is irrational.

2000

December

• “They [Russian-Ukrainian relations] have improved dramatically … [since] my meeting with the Ukrainian president in Sochi [in Oct. 2000, when the leaders agreed on a restructuring plan for Ukraine’s gas debts]. They improved dramatically because there we agreed in principle that in the interests of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples we would resolve the outstanding problems built up over 10 years. These are above all economic problems, which gave grounds for saying that our Ukrainian partners have not always behaved properly with regard to some aspects of the gas issue. … It makes Ukraine an absolutely civilized partner not only for us but also for the European Community.” (Transcript of interview with Russian media, Kremlin.ru, 12.25.00)

2001 

August

• “We share the pain of irretrievable losses suffered by the fraternal people of Ukraine.” (Condolences to Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma after a deadly mining accident in the Donetsk Region, Kremlin.ru, 08.20.01)

December

• “Our roots are in Kievan Rus. Our brotherhood is not a legend but a historical fact. That is why the common future of Russia and Ukraine is the future of two European states that are very close and interconnected. Today Russian-Ukrainian relations are becoming stable and predictable. Our strategic partnership augurs well not only for the two peoples, but also for the whole Commonwealth [of Independent States], for the united Europe and the world. Russia has a vital stake in a stable, successful and economically powerful Ukraine: Our country needs and values such a neighbor.” (Speech at reception marking the 10th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, Kremlin.ru, 08.23.01)

2002

May

• “I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. At the end of the day the decision [on Ukraine joining NATO] is to be made by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners.” (Press statement/answers to questions at joint news conference with Kuchma, Kremlin.ru, 05.17.02) 
• “On the topic of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, the Russian president said that it was entitled to make the decision independently. He does not see it as something that could cloud the relations between Russia and Ukraine.” (Remarks paraphrased by Kremlin press service after a joint press conference following a Russia-NATO summit, Kremlin.ru, 05.28.02)

2003

May

• “The relations between Russia and Ukraine are unique. We have a shared history. Most Ukrainian citizens link their destinies with Russia and many Russian citizens link their personal fates with Ukraine where they have close relatives. This is a fact. Therefore we should build our relations by non-standard means and in non-standard ways.” (Joint press conference with Kuchma after second round of bilateral talks, Kremlin.ru, 05.04.03)
• “Our entire historical experience shows that a country like Russia can live and develop within its existing borders only if it is a strong nation. All of the periods during which Russia has been weakened, whether politically or economically, have always and inexorably brought to the fore the threat of the country’s collapse.” (Annual address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 05.16.03)

2004

January

• “We must remember the lessons of our shared history. The main lesson is that a strategic partnership between Russia and Ukraine always made us both stronger and helped us rise to challenges and reach achievements for all our people. There is no doubt that we still have a lot to do together. This task is not easy, but it is necessary and noble and meets the sincere hopes of the citizens of both our countries.” (Speech marking end of the Year of Russia in Ukraine and the 350th anniversary of the Pereyaslavl Rada, Kremlin.ru, 01.23.04)

July

• “By getting closer [via the Common Economic Space, a Eurasian trade bloc] we are increasing our competitiveness. And this is understood not only by us, but by serious people, our partners abroad. Their agents, both inside our countries and outside, are trying everything possible to compromise the integration between Russia and Ukraine.” (Putin to Kuchma in July 2004 meeting, quoted in “Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?” by Karen Daisha, p. 348)

November

• “Putin appealed to the international community not to push Ukraine toward mass unrest. The president said he firmly believed that it would be unacceptable to allow settling such disputes through unrest in the streets to become a normal part of international life. Disputes of this sort should be settled through constitutional means. The Ukrainian presidential election does not depend on recognition from outside but is the affair of the Ukrainian people themselves, Mr. Putin noted.” (Russia-EU summit press release from Kremlin press service, Kremlin.ru, 11.25.04)

December

• Speaking about a week and a half into Ukraine’s Orange Revolution: “Russia is not indifferent to what is happening in Ukraine, for every second Ukrainian family, if not more, has family and personal ties with Russia. … The parties to the dispute should meet at the negotiating table and work out a compromise solution. Russia is ready to act as mediator in settling the dispute, but neither Russia, the European community nor international organizations can settle all the issues. It is the Ukrainian people who must have the final word.” (Kremlin press release, Kremlin.ru, 12.02.04)
• “Russia is creating the Single Economic Space in a large part of the former Soviet Union while at the same time building a common economic space with the European Union. Russia believes that building this common economic space with the EU is in the interests of both Russia and the EU countries and that this will harmonize economic ties. These projects are not in contradiction with the possibility of new members joining the EU, including Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin said he considers that if Ukraine were to join the EU this would be a positive factor that, unlike NATO expansion, would help strengthen the system of international relations.” (Kremlin press release, Kremlin.ru, 12.10.04)

2005

April

• “Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century” (sic). [Here we have used the Kremlin’s translation. English-language media and authors often quote Putin as calling the Soviet collapse “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” However, in Russian, which lacks the articles “a” and “the,” Putin’s statement is ambiguous—either “the greatest” or “one of the greatest.” The fact that the Kremlin chose to use the indefinite article “a” in its translation suggests that the intended meaning was “…the collapse of the Soviet Union was among the greatest geopolitical catastrophes of the century.”] (Annual address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 04.25.05)  
• “Our objectives on the international stage are very clear—to ensure the security of our borders and create favorable external conditions for the resolution of our domestic problems. We are not inventing anything new and we seek to make use of all that European civilization and world history have accumulated. Also certain is that Russia should continue its civilizing mission on the Eurasian continent. This mission consists of ensuring that democratic values, combined with national interests, enrich and strengthen our historic community. We consider international support for the respect of the rights of Russians abroad an issue of major importance, one that cannot be the subject of political and diplomatic bargaining.” (Annual address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 04.25.05)  
• “We hope that the new members of NATO and the European Union in the post-Soviet area will show their respect for human rights, including the rights of ethnic minorities, through their actions. Countries that do not respect and cannot guarantee human rights themselves do not have the right to demand that others respect these same rights.” (Annual address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 04.25.05)

May

• “We think that simple expansion of NATO is a technical process that does not bring greater security to the world. There are modern threats we are all aware of—threats such as terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. I do not really understand exactly how a purely technical move such as the expansion of NATO to take in our Baltic neighbors can bring greater security. If other former Soviet republics want to join NATO, our attitude will remain the same. But I want to stress that we will respect their choice because it is their sovereign right to decide their own defense policy and this will not worsen relations between our countries.” (France 3 interview, Kremlin.ru, 05.07.05)  
• "For the moment … our relations with NATO are at a level that would not make it possible for us to maintain certain defense production activities and keep certain sensitive technologies in a NATO country, in Ukraine, for example, should it join this organization… We have to talk about all these issues in good time, talk with each other frankly, honestly and openly. That is what we are doing.” (France 3 interview transcript, Kremlin.ru, 05.07.05)

2006

September

• “Our European and American partners decided to support the Orange Revolution even against the Constitution. … First of all, the political result was very problematic and we see how the situation is developing in Ukraine. Second, if you already provided support and want to continue to provide support, then pay the bill. But you want to have political gains and want us to pay for them. … [The West wants] neither to pay nor to look at things as they are in reality.” (Valdai Discussion Club transcript, Kremlin.ru, 09.09.06)

2007

February

• “Last year Ukraine received energy and gas for $95 and this year for $135 despite the fact that well-known, significant political changes took place in Ukraine. But our relations with Ukraine did not deteriorate because of this—they became better, stronger and more reliable both for us and for Ukraine. We are always ready to help the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian president if they ask for our help.” (Press interview transcript, Kremlin.ru, 02.01.07)
• “I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation to the modernization of the alliance itself or to ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.” (Speech and discussion at the Munich Security Conference, Kremlin.ru, 02.10.07)

2008

April

• “You don’t understand, George, Ukraine is not even a state. What is Ukraine? Part of its territories is Eastern Europe, but the greater part is a gift from us.” (Putin to then-U.S. President George W. Bush on sidelines of April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, quoted in “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin” by Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy, p. 360)

August

• Asked by CNN while prime minister, “Can you guarantee to us that Russia will never again use its military forces against the neighboring state?”: “I am categorically opposed to the way this question is formulated. It is not we who should guarantee that we will not attack anybody. We have not attacked anyone. It is we who are demanding guarantees from others that they will not attack us anymore and will not kill our citizens. And yet there are attempts to portray us as the aggressor.” (Interview transcript, Government.ru, 08.28.08)

December

• “As regards Ukraine, we have a complex ongoing dialogue. It is true that our Ukrainian partners have outstanding debts, over $2.5 billion, which is quite a big amount for Gazprom and for the country as a whole. ... We had reached such agreements with Ukraine in earlier years and I hope that they will duly abide by these agreements. But if our partners fail to honor these agreements or, as it has happened in the past, siphon off our resources from the transit pipeline illegally, we will have to reduce the feeding of gas. What else can we do? We have no other option.” (“Conversation with Vladimir Putin,” Government.ru, 12.4.08)

2009 

March

• “It seems to me the document about which we are talking [an EU-Ukraine gas deal] aimed at assisting Ukraine with its debt in exchange for increased reliability of gas transit] is, at a minimum, ill-considered and unprofessional because to discuss such issues without the basic supplier is simply not serious. … If the interests of Russia are ignored then we will have to start re-examining the principles of relations with our partners.” (“Putin Slams Europe Over Gas Deal With Ukraine,” DW, 03.23.09)

2010

December

• "Undoubtedly, when we were all together, we represented a much greater force. … Today the situation is different. Today Ukraine, Belarus and other former Soviet republics are independent. So we need to proceed from reality. Nevertheless, we can, and need to, facilitate economic integration for the sake of our peoples and we are doing this.” (Press conference transcript, Government.ru, 12.16.10)
• “Naturally, our Ukrainian counterparts understand the economic benefits of joining these integration processes and if Ukraine does join them, one way or another, this will certainly deliver important and strong momentum that will help preserve entire industries in Ukraine and will boost the competitiveness of many of our companies. But this is up to the sovereign Ukrainian people and the country’s leadership to decide." (Press conference transcript, Government.ru, 12.16.10)

2011 

December

• Asked about the white ribbons worn by opposition activists during large-scale protests in 2011: "We know about the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Certain members of the Russian opposition went to Ukraine back then and served as official advisors to President Yushchenko. Naturally, they are bringing these practices back here to Russia." (Press conference transcript, Government.ru, 12.15.11)

2012

July

• "[Russian-Ukrainian] cooperation is very extensive—our trade is over $50 billion (the president of Ukraine already mentioned this), and we have every opportunity to increase it manifold in the coming years.” (Press conference after meeting of bilateral Interstate Commission, Kremlin.ru, 07.12.12)
• “We all want cooperation with Europe. Russia wants it, Ukraine wants it, and so do the other post-Soviet region countries.” (Press conference after meeting of bilateral Interstate Commission, Kremlin.ru, 07.12.12)

December

• “In order to revive national consciousness, we need to link historical eras and get back to understanding the simple truth that Russia did not begin in 1917, or even in 1991, but rather that we have a common, continuous history spanning over 1,000 years, and we must rely on it to find inner strength and purpose in our national development. … I recall one of my meetings with [WWII] veterans. There were representatives of several ethnicities: Tatars, Ukrainians, Georgians, and ethnic Russians of course. One of the veterans, who was not an ethnic Russian, said, “As far as the entire world is concerned, we are one people, we are Russians.” That was true during the war, and it has always been true.” (Address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 12.12.12)

2013

July

• “We all know what happened after the Soviet Union’s collapse. I will not pass any political judgments on those events. We live in different countries today, but this fact in no way crosses out the common historic past that we share, and that is our asset and the foundation upon which we can build new integration ties.” (Conference on “Orthodox-Slavic Values: The Foundation of Ukraine’s Civilizational Choice,” Kremlin.ru, 07.27.13)

December

• “We are now entering a crucial stage in preparing the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty. We expect to have agreed on the treaty’s text by May 1, 2014, and to have submitted it to the Russian, Belarusian and Kazakhstani parliaments by that time. … I am sure that the real achievements of Eurasian integration will only enhance our other neighbors’ interest in it, including that of our Ukrainian partners.” (Address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 12.12.13)

2014

March

• Regarding Ukraine’s Maidan revolution: “There can only be one assessment: This was an anti-constitutional takeover, an armed seizure of power.” (Answering journalists’ questions, Kremlin.ru, 03.04.14)
• “We have always considered Ukraine not only a neighbor but a brotherly neighboring republic, and will continue to do so. Our armed forces are comrades in arms, friends, many of whom know each other personally. I am certain, and I stress, I am certain that the Ukrainian military and the Russian military will not be facing each other, they will be on the same side in a fight.” (Answering journalists’ questions, Kremlin.ru, 03.04.14)
• “Everything in Crimea speaks of our shared history and pride.” (Presidential address, Kremlin.ru, 03.18.22)

April

• “Russia had never intended to annex any territories, or planned any military operations there [in Ukraine], never. Quite to the contrary, we were going to build our relations with Ukraine based on current geopolitical realities. But we also thought, and have always hoped, that all native Russians, the Russian-speaking people living in Ukraine, would live in a comfortable political environment, that they would not be threatened or oppressed. But when this situation changed, and Russians in Crimea were facing exactly that, when they began raising the issue of self-determination—that’s when we sat down to decide what to do.” (Transcript of annual call-in show, Kremlin.ru, 04.17.14)
• “We wanted to support the residents of Crimea, but we also followed a certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: ‘This doesn’t concern you,’ and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory. … If NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area. We’d be left with just a small coastline of 450 or 600 kilometers, and that’s it! In this way, Russia may be really ousted from this region that is extremely important for us, a region for which so many Russians gave up their lives during all the previous centuries.” (Transcript of annual call-in show, Kremlin.ru, 04.17.14)
• “Russia has always been close to Ukraine and will always remain closely related to it. I’m not talking about the assistance that Russia has been providing to Ukraine for many long years, and I’m sure that we’ll get back to that issue. This assistance adds up to hundreds of billions of dollars. But this is not the point. The point is that we have extensive common interests. If we want to succeed, we must cooperate and join efforts. I’m confident that we will understand this despite all the emotional complications we’re seeing today.” (Transcript of annual call-in show, Kremlin.ru, 04.17.14)

May

• “One of the essential conditions for getting dialogue underway is an unconditional end to the use of force, whether with the help of the armed forces, which is completely unacceptable in the modern world, or through the use of illegal armed radical groups.” (Press statements and replies to journalists’ questions, Kremlin.ru, 05.07.22)
• “As for whether proposed measures suit Russia or not, we are not a party to this conflict; the parties to the conflict are in Ukraine itself.” (Press statements and replies to journalists’ questions, Kremlin.ru, 05.07.22)

June

• “What actually happened there [in Ukraine]? There was a conflict and that conflict arose because the former Ukrainian president refused to sign an association agreement with the EU. Russia had a certain stance on this issue. We believed it was indeed unreasonable to sign that agreement because it would have a grave impact on the economy, including the Russian economy. We have 390 economic agreements with Ukraine and Ukraine is a member of the free trade zone within the CIS. And we wouldn’t be able to continue this economic relationship with Ukraine as a member of the free trade zone. We discussed this with our European partners. Instead of continuing the debates by legitimate and diplomatic means, our European friends and our friends from the United States supported the anti-constitutional armed coup. This is what happened.” (Transcript of interview with Radio Europe 1 and TF1 TV channel, Kremlin.ru, 06.04.14)

October

•  “It is vitally important to instill lofty patriotic values in the younger generation and to actively resist any attempts at reviving the Nazi ideology, fomenting inter-ethnic strife and falsifying our shared history.” (“Vladimir Putin congratulated veterans of the Great Patriotic War and the people of Ukraine on the 70th anniversary of Ukraine’s liberation from Nazi occupation,” Kremlin.ru, 10.28.14)

December

• “Every nation has an inalienable sovereign right to determine its own development path, choose allies and political regimes, create an economy and ensure its security. Russia has always respected these rights and always will. This fully applies to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. It is true that we condemned the government coup and the forceful takeover of power in Kiev [sic] in February of this year. The developments we are currently witnessing in Ukraine and the tragedy unfolding in the country’s southeast prove that we were right to take such a stand.” (Address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 12.4.14)

2015

September

• “Ukraine is a separate and major issue for us. It is our closest neighbor. We've always said that this is our sister country. It's not only a Slavic people. We have a common history, common culture, common religion, and many things in common. What I believe is absolutely unacceptable is the resolution of internal political issues in the former USSR republics, through ‘color revolutions,’ through coup d'états, through unconstitutional removal of power.” (Charlie Rose interview with Putin, CBS News, 09.27.15)

2016

January

• “Lenin said the state, the Soviet Union should be formed on the basis of full equality with the possibility of seceding from the union—I may have gotten the exact words wrong, but that was the idea. That was the time bomb that was planted under the structure of our statehood. Not only did they set the borders for ethnic groups of a multinational, essentially unitarian state; the borders were also established arbitrarily, without much reason. Thus, why did they make Donbas part of Ukraine? The reason was to raise the share of the proletariat there to ensure greater social support. Pure nonsense, as you may see. And this is not the only example, there are many others.” (Remarks at Russian Popular Front forum, Kremlin.ru, 01.25.16)

2017

February

• “We … see the recent serious flare-up in southeast Ukraine. This escalation pursues the clear aim of preventing the Minsk Agreements from going ahead. The current Ukrainian authorities are obviously not seeking a peaceful solution to this very complex problem and have decided to opt for the use of force instead. What is more, they speak openly about organizing sabotage and terrorism, particularly in Russia. Obviously, this is a matter of great concern. The events and circumstances I have mentioned require our security and intelligence services, especially the Federal Security Service, to concentrate their utmost attention and effort on the paramount task of fighting terrorism.” (Federal Security Service board meeting, Kremlin.ru, 02.16.17)

June

• In response to a Ukrainian man who asked why Russia had “abandoned” Ukraine: "We are cautious about giving you excessive public support, which could actually harm you. We try not to interfere in Ukraine’s domestic affairs." (Transcript of annual call-in show, Kremlin.ru, 06.15.2017)

2018

March

• “Why did you [the United States] encourage the government coup in Ukraine? Why did you do that? The U.S. directly acknowledged spending billions of dollars to this end. This was openly acknowledged by U.S. officials. Why do they support government coups and armed fighting in other countries? Why has the U.S. deployed missile systems along our borders? Listen, Russia and the U.S. should sit down and talk it over in order to get things straight.” (Transcript of NBC interview, Kremlin.ru, 03.10.18)

2019

May

• “It is our duty to safeguard the truth about the landmark episodes from our shared past, and counter all attempts to sow inter-ethnic strife or revive fascist ideology. I strongly believe that the peoples of Russia and Ukraine should cherish and be mindful of the traditions of brotherly friendship and mutual assistance inherited from our fathers and grandfathers. These values paved the way to the glorious Victory.” (“Congratulations to Great Patriotic War veterans and the people of Ukraine,” Kremlin.ru, 05.08.19) 

July

“I believe that Russians and Ukrainians are actually one people. … One nation, in fact. When these lands that are now the core of Ukraine joined Russia … nobody thought themselves to be anything but Russians, because it was all based on religious affiliation. They were all Orthodox and they considered themselves Russians. …  I understand very well that over time the identity of this part of Russia crystallized, and people have the right to determine their identity. But later this factor was used to throw into imbalance the Russian Empire. But in fact, this is the same world sharing the same history, same religion, traditions and a wide range of ties, close family ties among them.” (Transcript of interview with Oliver Stone, Kremlin.ru, 07.19.19)

• “Today the Ukrainian economy is completely destroyed because it has lost the Russian market and, most importantly, cooperation in industry. Nobody needs Ukrainian industrial goods on Western markets, and that goes for agriculture too: Very few goods are purchased.” (Transcript of interview with Oliver Stone, Kremlin.ru, 07.19.19)

2020

February

• “As I have repeatedly said I believe that we [Russians and Ukrainians] are one and the same people. … To talk about today or tomorrow we need to know history, need to know who we are, where do we come from, what unites us.” (Interview with TASS, Kremlin.ru, 02.21.20)
• “The Ukrainian leaders or those who got power pursued their self-interests. And what were they? It was not even to earn more by robbing the Ukrainian people but to retain what has been plundered before. This was the main objective. … Where is the money? In foreign banks. What do they need to do for this? Show that they serve those who have this money. Hence, the only thing they sell is Russophobia. Because some like dividing Ukraine and Russia, they believe it's a very important mission. Because any integration of Russia and Ukraine, along with their capacities and competitive advantages, would lead to the emergence of a rival, a global rival for Europe and the world. No one wants it. That's why they'll do anything to pull us apart.” (Interview with TASS, Kremlin.ru, 02.21.20)

2021

April

• “You can think whatever you like of, say, Ukrainian President [Viktor] Yanukovych or [Nicolas] Maduro in Venezuela. I repeat, you can like or dislike them, including Yanukovych who almost got killed, too, and removed from power via an armed coup. You can have your own opinion of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko’s policy. But the practice of staging coups d’état and planning political assassinations, including those of high-ranking officials — well, this goes too far. (Address to Federal Assembly, Kremlin.ru, 04.21.21)

July

• “This is what is actually happening. First of all, we are facing the creation of a climate of fear in Ukrainian society, aggressive rhetoric, indulging neo-Nazis and militarizing the country. Along with that we are witnessing not just complete dependence but direct external control, including the supervision of the Ukrainian authorities, security services and armed forces by foreign advisers, military ‘development’ of the territory of Ukraine and deployment of NATO infrastructure.” (Article by Putin “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” Kremlin.ru, 07.12.21)
• “Russia is open to dialogue with Ukraine and ready to discuss the most complex issues. But it is important for us to understand that our partner is defending its national interests but not serving someone else's, and is not a tool in someone else's hands to fight against us. ..... Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.” (Article by Putin “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” Kremlin.ru, 07.12.21)

2022

February

• “[Kyiv] is not complying with the Minsk Agreements and, in particular, is strongly opposed to a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk. … Human rights are massively and systematically violated in Ukraine, and discrimination against the Russian-speaking population is being fixed [i.e., codified] at the legislative level.” (News conference following Russian-Belarusian talks, Kremlin.ru, 02.18.22)
• “As I have said many times before, if Russia faces the threat of Ukraine being accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO, the threat against our country will increase because of Article 5 … [which] clearly states that all countries in the alliance must fight on the side of their co-member in the event of an aggression against it. But since nobody recognizes the will expressed by the people of Crimea and Sevastopol, and Ukraine continues to insist that it is Ukrainian territory, there is a real threat that they will try to take back the territory they believe is theirs using military force. And they do say this in their documents, obviously. Then the entire North Atlantic Alliance will have to get involved.” (Security Council meeting, Kremlin.ru, 02.21.22)
• Referring to unverified claims of genocide against Russian speakers in southeastern Ukraine: “The so-called civilized world, which our Western colleagues proclaimed themselves the only representatives of, prefers not to see this, as if this horror and genocide, which almost 4 million people are facing, do not exist. But they do exist and only because these people did not agree with the West-supported coup in Ukraine in 2014 and opposed the transition toward the Neanderthal and aggressive nationalism and neo-Nazism that have been elevated in Ukraine to the rank of national policy.” (Presidential address, Kremlin.ru, 02.21.22)
• “Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia—by separating, severing what is historically Russian land. Nobody asked the millions of people living there what they thought.” (Presidential address, Kremlin.ru, 02.21.22)
• "Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us… It is the red line which we have spoken about on numerous occasions. They have crossed it. … Russia cannot feel safe, develop and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today’s Ukraine." (Presidential address, Kremlin.ru, 02.24.22)
• “We will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation. It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force.” (Presidential address, Kremlin.ru, 02.24.22)

March

• “I will never abandon my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation, even though some people in Ukraine have been intimidated, many have been duped by nationalist Nazi propaganda, and some have consciously decided to become followers of Bandera and other Nazi accomplices, who fought on Hitler’s side during the Great Patriotic War.” (Russian Security Council meeting, Kremlin.ru, 03.03.22)
• “[As for] the expression of their will by the residents of Crimea and Sevastopol, they acted in practically the same way as the people living in Kosovo—they made a decision on independence and then turned to us with a request to join the Russian Federation. The only difference between the two cases was that in Kosovo this decision on sovereignty was adopted by parliament whereas Crimea and Sevastopol made it at a nationwide referendum." (Conversation with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Kremlin.ru, 04.26.22)

This item is part of Russia Matters’ “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.

All photos shared under a Creative Commons license: main photo, Kremlin.ru; 2001 photo, Kremlin.ru; 2009 photo, Premier.gov.ru; 2010 photo, Premier.gov.ru.