Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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CIA Chief: Putin Is Betting on Attrition in Ukraine But Will Lose His Bet (Again)

RM Staff July 22, 2022 RM Exclusives
William Burns—whose track record for understanding how the Russian president is thinking may be the best in Washington—shares insights on how Putin sees Ukraine and other Russia-related topics.
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China’s Long Game in Russia: Violating Sanctions? No. Ensuring Russia’s Survival? Yes.

Lizzi C. Lee June 30, 2022 RM Exclusives
A floundering Russia and reinvigorated NATO would cut against China's core security interests by giving Washington a stronger hand in its Thucydidian rivalry with Beijing.
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Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Will Be New in the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept?

Rose Gottemoeller June 27, 2022 Partner Posts
The alliance will likely emphasize resilience but also maintain its dual-track approach toward Russia, combining deterrence and defense with détente and dialogue.
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How Silent Assent Made Bucha Possible

Andrei Kolesnikov April 07, 2022 Recommended Reads
Those who approve or stay silent bear, at the very least, collective responsibility for what is happening in their own country and what the state is doing.
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Opportunity for Diplomacy: No Russian Attack Before Feb. 20

Graham Allison February 04, 2022 Recommended Reads
Most of the American foreign policy community has still not come to grips with the relationship that has developed between Russia and China in the decade since Xi Jinping became president.
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Non-Aggressors With Benefits: Russia-China Alignment Won’t Be Game-Changed by Ukraine or Much Else

Paul Saunders February 03, 2022 RM Exclusives
The relationship rests on a mutual commitment to not threatening one another’s important interests, allowing each government to focus on its strategic aims.
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Putin Has Off-Ramps: Let’s Not Block Them

Henry Hale and Adam Lenton February 02, 2022 Recommended Reads
Accounts claiming Putin has passed the point of no return overlook key sources of Putin’s domestic appeal, which is based much more on pragmatically providing stability, security, and prosperity than on aggressiveness.
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Be Careful What You Wish For: Russia, China and Afghanistan after the Withdrawal

Jeffrey Mankoff July 29, 2021 RM Exclusives
Do Beijing and Moscow have sufficient influence to oversee a managed transition, contain any spillover of violence, and provide reassurance to anxious Afghanistan neighbors? The whole region is about to find out.
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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Development Hampered by Internal Conflicts

Lucie Messy October 29, 2020 RM Exclusives
While the capabilities of individual SCO members, such as China and Russia, pose a challenge to Western countries’ interests, due to internal challenges and a loose organizational structure, the organization itself does not.
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US Should Keep an Eye on Rising Chinese Investment in the South Caucasus

Daniel Shapiro October 01, 2020 RM Exclusives
The recent flare-up of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan has turned global attention to the South Caucasus, but increased Chinese presence in this strategically sensitive region means U.S. policymakers shouldn't look away when tensions ease.
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Why Russia’s Alliance With China is Improbable, But Not Impossible

Simon Saradzhyan September 21, 2020 Partner Posts
The relationship between China and Russia is getting stronger by the hour. While some might say that Russia and China are in a de facto non-aggression pact, a deeper alliance is still unlikely, though not impossible.
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Russia and Collective Security: Why CSTO Is No Match for Warsaw Pact

Dmitry Gorenburg May 27, 2020 RM Exclusives
The CSTO is too organizationally weak and insufficiently integrated to serve as a capability multiplier for its members, and the weakness of other member states' military forces make them of limited value to Russia as military allies.
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