Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
issue brief

The Durability of Russian Military Power: Moscow’s Prospects for Sustaining Direct Competition

Michael Kofman May 25, 2018 Recommended Reads
Russia's success in restoring its military power gives it greater leverage on the international stage, and Moscow is increasingly using this threat of force to underwrite its foreign policy.
explainer

The Collapsing Russian Defense Budget and Other Fairy Tales

Michael Kofman May 22, 2018 RM Exclusives
Recent reports claiming Russia slashed defense spending by 20 percent from 2016 to 2017 are wrong, the author argues. They stem from a government decision to pay down old debt, not actual cuts to spending.
explainer

Russia and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Laying Out the Publicly Available Evidence

David Filipov, Kevin Doyle and Natasha Yefimova-Trilling April 06, 2018 RM Exclusives
Americans’ opinions about allegations of “Russiagate” are often split along party lines—in part because the publicly available evidence has come in forms that leave room for doubt. Here we try to present it as systematically as possible. Newly updated!
research paper

Russian Strategists Debate Preemption as Defense Against NATO Surprise Attack

Alexander Velez-Green March 14, 2018 RM Exclusives
Russian leaders have long debated what to do in the face of a NATO surprise attack. One group of military strategists believes that, in the near future, defensive operations alone will not suffice.
issue brief

After the INF Treaty: An Objective Look at US and Russian Compliance, Plus a New Arms Control Regime

Kevin Ryan December 07, 2017 RM Exclusives
Russia, according to U.S. officials, has violated the INF Treaty. The U.S. is on the verge of violating, if it has not already done so. What’s needed now is a new treaty focusing on warheads instead of delivery systems.
report

Entanglement: Chinese and Russian Perspectives on Non-nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risks

James M. Acton, Alexey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin, Petr Topychkanov, Tong Zhao and Li Bin November 08, 2017 Recommended Reads
A new report offers Russian, Chinese and U.S. assessments of the growing risk of military conflicts going nuclear.
report

A Roadmap for US-Russia Relations

Edited by Andrey Kortunov and Olga Oliker August 01, 2017 Partner Posts
This report by the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the Russian International Affairs Council looks at the troubled state of the U.S.-Russia relationship and recommends areas of potential cooperation.
explainer

25 Years of Nuclear Security Cooperation by the US, Russia and Other Newly Independent States: A Timeline

Mariana Budjeryn, Simon Saradzhyan and William Tobey June 16, 2017 RM Exclusives
At a time when the U.S. and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union still saw each other as mortal enemies, they found the courage, creativity and capacity for trust to work together in the name of preventing nuclear catastrophe.
explainer

For Russia and America, Election Interference Is Nothing New: 25 Stories

Arjun Kapur and Simon Saradzhyan March 22, 2017 RM Exclusives
As headlines scream about Russia’s “unprecedented” interference in U.S. politics, it’s helpful to get some historical perspective on how often countries try to tinker with each other’s elections.
issue brief

Islamic State and the Bolsheviks: Plenty in Common and Lessons to Heed

Simon Saradzhyan and Monica Duffy Toft December 16, 2016 RM Exclusives
Some scholars say if IS is recognized or contained its “state” will “normalize” like the Bolsheviks’. But IS will not abandon its expansionist agenda or stop mass killings unless it is defeated outright.
report

The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model

Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews July 11, 2016 Partner Posts
The contemporary Russian propaganda model is high-volume, multichannel, rapid, continuous and repetitive. The very factors that make this model successful also make it difficult to counter. While traditional counterpropaganda approaches are likely to be inadequate, more effective solutions can be found in the same psychology literature that explains the surprising success of this phenomenon.
report

The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment of Nuclear Terrorism

Matthew Bunn, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Simon Saradzhyan, William H. Tobey, Yuri Morozov, Viktor I. Yesin, Pavel S. Zolotarev June 06, 2011 Recommended Reads
As it is entirely feasible for terror groups to produce a weapon of mass destruction given enough nuclear material, countries must take stronger steps towards prevention and security.
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