World leaders assemble at conference on nuclear security.

The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment of Nuclear Terrorism

June 06, 2011
Matthew Bunn, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Simon Saradzhyan, William H. Tobey, Yuri Morozov, Viktor I. Yesin, Pavel S. Zolotarev

This is an abstract of a report originally published by the Belfer Center. 

Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat. Given the potentially catastrophic consequences, even a small probability of terrorists getting and detonating a nuclear bomb is enough to justify urgent action to reduce the risk. Al-Qaeda and North Caucasus terrorist groups have both made statements indicating that they seek nuclear weapons and have attempted to acquire them; these groups are presented together as a case study to assess nuclear terrorism as a present and future threat. (The only other terrorist group known to have systematically sought to get nuclear weapons was the Japanese cult group Aum Shinrikyo.) This study makes the case that it is plausible that a technically sophisticated group could make, deliver, and detonate a crude nuclear bomb if it could obtain sufficient fissile material. The study offers recommendations for actions to reduce this danger.

JointThreatAssessment.pdf
Author

Matthew Bunn

Matthew Bunn is the co-principal investigator at the Project on Managing the Atom and a professor of practice of public policy at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government.

Author

Valentin Kuznetsov

Valentin Kuznetsov is a retired vice admiral of the Russian navy. He is also a senior research fellow at the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Author

Martin Malin

Martin Mali is the executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom.

Author

Yuri Morozov

Yuri Morozov is a retired colonel of the Russian Armed Forces. He is also a professor at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and a senior research fellow at the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Author

Simon Sardzhyan

Simon Saradzhyan is a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Author

William Tobey

William Tobey is a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism.

Author

Viktor Yesin

Viktor Yesin is a retired colonel general of the Russian Armed Forces. He is a leading research fellow at the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia.

Author

Pavel Zolotarev

Pavel Zolotarev is a retired major general of the Russian Armed Forces. He is also deputy director of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences and former head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense.