Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
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Russia-Ukraine War Alert: What’s Behind It and What Lies Ahead?

Dmitri Trenin April 13, 2021 Recommended Reads
Going overkill in terms of military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border now may avoid the need to do terrible things at a later point.
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Is the “Resource Curse” Irreversible? Experiences of the Russian Regions

Delgerjargal Uvsh April 05, 2021 Partner Posts
The experiences of Russia’s oil- and gas-producing regions after the collapse of the Soviet Union suggests that political elites can make a difference in reversing the “resource curse” if their abundant revenues from natural resources decline.
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We Need to Have a Talk About Alexei Navalny

Terrell Jermaine Starr March 01, 2021 Recommended Reads
If Navalny is serious about challenging the current regime, Russians—and the outside world—have a right to know precisely whom we’re dealing with.
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Navalny’s Bravery Is Unlikely to Shift Putin’s Entrenched Power

Jeff Hawn January 25, 2021 Recommended Reads
While Alexei Navalny’s return to Russia following his poisoning with Novichok five months prior was a brave act, it has almost no chance of immediately deposing the current regime.
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The Curious Case of ‘Russian Lives Matter’

Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon July 11, 2020 Recommended Reads
In Moscow, the Kremlin attacks U.S. racism while the liberal opposition ignores it, or worse.
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Plots Against Russia

Sean's Russia Blog June 19, 2020 Partner Posts
In this episode of Sean's Russia Blog, host and Eurasia expert Sean Guillory speaks with Eliot Borenstein, professor of Russian and Slavic studies at New York University, about conspiratorial thinking at the Russian state level.
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Political Diary from Russia

Sean's Russia Blog March 13, 2020 Partner Posts
In this episode of Sean's Russia Blog, host and Eurasia expert Sean Guillory speaks with Ilya Budraitskis and Ilya Matveev, co-hosts of the podcast "Politicheskii dnevnik" on their podcast and on Russian domestic politics in general.
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5 Years Since Russia’s Intervention in Ukraine: Has Putin’s Gamble Paid Off?

Simon Saradzhyan March 14, 2019 RM Exclusives
The author analyzes the costs and benefits for Russia, finding that the intervention advanced one vital national interest and damaged several others. The costs have been manageable so far, but may eventually become prohibitive.
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In Helsinki, Trump Takes ‘Do No Harm’ Approach to Russia on 2 Issues: Syria and Energy

Nikolas K. Gvosdev July 17, 2018 RM Exclusives
For now, at least, the U.S. will not help its Middle Eastern and European allies pursue their own engagement with Moscow, but will not interfere with it a great deal either.
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Russian Military Buildup in the West: Fact Versus Fiction

Michael Kofman September 07, 2017 RM Exclusives
Until 2014 Russia was largely cutting the number of troops on NATO's borders to move them elsewhere. The war with Ukraine changed that, reawakening Moscow to the possibility of a large-scale war on its western front.
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Yes, Russian Generals Are Preparing for War. That Doesn’t Necessarily Mean the Kremlin Wants to Start One

Simon Saradzhyan August 30, 2017 RM Exclusives
Past experience suggests that two conditions must exist for Russia to use military exercises as a cover for foreign military interventions and neither one is in place today.
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