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Analysis | Jun 22, 2016

Russia's Medium-Term Economic Prospects

Without major policy changes, the Russian economy will grow slowly in the medium term, even if world market prices for oil rebound sharply by the end of the decade. However, there is much that the Russian government could do internally to accelerate growth.
Analysis | Jun 20, 2016

Back From the Brink: Toward Restraint and Dialogue Between Russia and the West

In its report, the Deep Cuts Commission provides recommendations aimed at preventing any potential catastrophic military escalation between Russia and the West.
Analysis | Jun 16, 2016

Prisoners of the Caucasus: Resolving the Karabakh Security Dilemma

Renewed fighting in Nagorny Karabakh in April 2016 raised the stakes for international actors. The main choice is between serious peace talks and the risk of dangerous spillover.
Analysis | Jun 09, 2016

False Alarms, True Dangers?: Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S.-Russian Nuclear War

Because the U.S. does not a have a consistent method of risk assessment for inadvertent nuclear war, misinterpretations could lead to a nuclear strike, either by U.S. or Russian forces.
Analysis | May 27, 2016

Quite Possibly the Dumbest Military Concept Ever: A 'Limited' Nuclear War

Thinking we can use nuclear weapons in a “limited” way without inviting nuclear catastrophe is a dangerous fantasy.
Analysis | May 25, 2016

Revitalizing Our Vital Interests

The United States has stretched itself too thin with a laundry list of national interests of widely varying importance. It must refocus on those interests which are most vital, including protecting global trade and preventing the spread of war.
Analysis | May 17, 2016

Twilight of the Petrostate

Only those countries that embrace modernization and carry it further than they did in the previous oil downcycle can hope not be relegated to a historical footnote. Now is the time for petrostates to awaken from their long oil dream and choose between the first and the third worlds.
Analysis | May 15, 2016

Why Putin Tolerates Corruption

Unlike for Xi Jinping, there is little incentive for Putin to begin an effective anti-corruption campaign, and compelling reasons not to.
Analysis | May 05, 2016

Deal or No Deal: The End of the Cold War and the US Offer to Limit NATO Expansion

New archival materials show that U.S. officials did indeed offer the Soviets informal assurances of NATO's non-expansion in 1990, while keeping open the possibility of expansion and seeking to maximize U.S. power in post-Cold War Europe.
Analysis | May 05, 2016

How Western aid enables graft addiction in Ukraine

Can Western aid actually support the cause of reform in Ukraine? Or is Western assistance enabling an entrenched elite to continue stealing and avoid building a functioning state?
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