Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • “We sometimes used to make the point that if someone wanted to smuggle in a dangerous weapon—even a nuclear weapon—into America, how would they do it? And the suggestion was made, ‘Well, we'll simply hide it in a bale of marijuana,’” Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) told CNN. (The Washington Post, 02.22.17)
  • A so-called Red Team from the U.S. federal agency charged with evaluating domestic capabilities to defend against dirty bomb and weapons of mass destruction attacks found gaping holes in domestic nuclear detection and defense capabilities and massive failures during covert testing. That’s according to the most recent annual report by the Department of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office. The Red Team report, dated July 2016 and reviewed by The Daily Beast, summarizes a year’s worth of covert and overt testing of nuclear and radiological detection and response capabilities. (Daily Beast, 02.21.17)
  • A ‘nuclear sniffer’ plane has been sent to monitor radioactivity levels in Europe following the detection of mysterious spikes of radiation across the continent. A station in Svanhovd in northern Norway near the Russian border first measured small amounts of radioactive iodine 131 in the atmosphere in January. Finland, Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, France and Spain subsequently reported detecting it as well. Monitoring stations in Russia have yet to release formal figures, but the spokespeople at the Kola Nuclear Power Plant and Atomflot told Bellona in a phone interview that the iodine 131 didn’t come from them. (The Independent, 02.22.17, Bellona, 02.21.17)
  • Sandia National Laboratory’s computer scientists Tam Le and Todd Noel have adapted augmented reality headsets—originally designed for gaming—as part of the physical security training curriculum Sandia provides in partnership with the International Atomic Energy Agency and National Nuclear Security Administration’s International Nuclear Security programs. (RDMag, 02.17.17)
  • The Virtual Heroes Division of Applied Research Associates has released a free download of Virtual Nuclear Security, a 3D game set in a nuclear power plant and designed as a training tool for the International Atomic Energy Agency. Players become safeguards inspectors, following fuel bundles through seven stages of a Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) nuclear facility. (Globe Newswire, 02.20.17)
  • The U.S.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Moscow-based Center for Energy and Security Studies have launched a new joint report on the future of U.S.-Russian nuclear cooperation. It includes 51 recommendations for mutually beneficial cooperation in different fields, including nuclear science, nuclear energy, nuclear safety, nuclear security and nuclear environmental remediation. (Russia Direct, 02.23.17)
  • Matthew Bunn of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and Scott D. Sagan of the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University have edited a new volume, Insider Threats, which takes on a challenge all high-security organizations face: how to protect themselves from betrayal from within. From Edward Snowden to nuclear thieves, the threat from insiders in high-security organizations is rarely far from the front page or the top of the policy agenda, according to the editors of the volume that has been published by Cornell University Press. (Belfer Center/Russia Matters, 02.24.17)
  • The non-profit Center for Public Integrity claims the Department of Energy is withholding nuclear security employee evaluations and records about payments made to contractors at nuclear weapons sites. (Courthouse News, 02.17.17)
  • Russia’s contract with Iran for the supply of S-300 air defense systems was for nearly $1 billion, the chief of the Rostec corporation, Sergey Chemezov, told the media. (TASS, 02.20.17)
  • Iran said it would begin selling 100,000 barrels of oil a day to Russia within the next 15 days and receive payment half in cash and half in goods and services, Iranian news media reported on Feb. 21. (RFE/RL, 02.22.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • "Remember the first time I talked about NATO, I said they all owe money? … They’re paying. They’re paying big league. ... They owe a lot of money,” U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Feb. 23. (Reuters, 02.24.17)
  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Feb. 18 conveyed a message to America’s NATO partners that the Trump administration will “hold Russia accountable” and maintain steadfast support for NATO, a military alliance the American commander in chief once dismissed as “obsolete.” “Know this: The United States will continue to hold Russia accountable, even as we search for new common ground, which as you know President Trump believes can be found,” Pence told the Munich Security Conference. He also promised that the U.S. would continue to support its contribution to the NATO deterrent force in Poland and the Baltic states, and said that the Trump administration would boost its military spending to strengthen its forces and better protect NATO allies. On Feb. 20, Pence vowed to stand with the European Union and the NATO military alliance and said that Trump would demand that Russia honor its commitments to end the fighting in Ukraine. (AP, 02.19.17, AP, 02.20.17, The Los Angeles Times, 02.18.17)
  • In a statement at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated Russian accusations that NATO's expansion has created tension in Europe. But he called for the resumption of military cooperation between Russia and NATO, saying that political meetings were pointless without it. He said Russia wanted relations with the United States that are "pragmatic" and marked by mutual respect and acknowledgement of a shared responsibility for global stability. In separate remarks, Lavrov also said the military neutrality of Sweden and Finland is fundamental to the security of the Baltic region. (RFE/RL, 02.21.17, RFE/RL, 02.18.17) 
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the Munich Security Conference that Western states must protect the principle of territorial integrity, and NATO needs to strengthen its eastern flank following Russia's interference in Ukraine. Merkel said that territorial integrity is a crucial foundation of the post-World War II order. (RFE/RL, 02.18.17)  
  • “The Russians are building a number of stealthy hybrid diesel-electric submarines and deploying them around the theatre,” said Vice Adm. James G. Foggo III, commander of the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet. (The National Interest, 02.17.17)
  • Montenegrin Foreign Minister Srdjan Darmanovic has said he expects his country to become a full member of NATO at a summit in late May. Last week, officials in the Montenegrin capital of Podgorica said they had evidence Russian government entities had been involved in an alleged plot to overthrow the government on Election Day in October. Russia has denied the accusations. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • Gen. Petr Pavel, who heads NATO's military committee, said contact between NATO's top commanders and their Russian counterparts could restart in the next few weeks via a telephone call with the chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, which might lead to a face-to-face meeting. Pavel also claimed that Russia was behind a false report of a rape by German soldiers in Lithuania, warning Europe to expect more of this "fake news." (Reuters, 02.18.17)
  • A recent multi-nation WIN/Gallup International poll showed that four members of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Turkey—would want Russia fighting on their side if attacked. (Bloomberg, 02.17.17)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • "We've fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity. … It would be wonderful, a dream would be that no country would have nukes, but if countries are going to have nukes, we’re going to be at the top of the pack,” U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Feb. 23. (Reuters, 02.24.17)
  • “To me, it’s a big deal … If I meet [Putin], if and when we meet, I would bring it up. It’s a big deal. Because it’s a violation of an agreement that we have,” U.S. President Donald Trump said when commenting on allegations that Russia has violated the INF treaty. (Reuters, 02.24.17)
  • The New START treaty is "a one-sided deal like all other deals we make. It’s a one-sided deal. It gave them things that we should have never allowed. … Just another bad deal that the country made, whether it’s START, whether it’s the Iran deal, which is one of the bad deals ever made. Our country only made bad deals, we don’t make good deals. So we’re going to start making good deals,” U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Feb. 23. (Reuters, 02.24.17)
    • Russia is “categorically opposed” to the termination of the New START nuclear arms control treaty, the head of the Federation Council’s defense committee, Viktor Ozerov, said in response to Trump’s remarks. Russia will push for an extension of the treaty, Ozerov said, adding that it was “fundamental to global security.” (The Moscow Times, 02.24.17)
  • In February 2017, the Congressional Budget Office released a biennial report on the projected costs of U.S. nuclear forces for the next 10 years. This year’s report estimates that nuclear forces will cost $400 billion dollars from 2017 to 2026, a 15% increase over CBO’s previous estimate (for 2015 to 2024). (Nukes of Hazard, 02.21.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Feb. 18 said Europe's ties with Russia remained challenging, but it was important to work with Russia in the fight against Islamist terrorism. (Reuters, 02.18.17)
  • A military court in Russia has sentenced Azerbaijani citizen Ramil Mirzamov to eight years in prison on charges of recruiting young people for the Islamic State in Syria. (RFE/RL, 02.20.17)

Conflict in Syria:                                                                                                    

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is voicing hope for the success of a political settlement in Syria, saying it will help defeat the “terrorist malaise.” Putin said Feb. 23 at a meeting with Russian naval officers that Moscow’s goal in Syria is to help stabilize the legitimate government and fight international terrorism. Putin also told the officers of Russia’s Northern Fleet that it was his idea to send a group of warships, including the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, to participate in the country’s military campaign in Syria. He also said Russian security services estimate that there are up to 4,000 militants from Russia and about 5,000 from former Soviet republics fighting in Syria, according to the Kremlin’s site. (Russia Matters, 02.23.17, AP, 02.23.17)
  • Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, on Feb. 22 hailed the military’s performance in Syria, saying new Russian weapons have proven their worth in the conflict. Shoigu told the Russian parliament that the military has tested 162 types of weapons in Syria, and only 10 of them have failed to meet expectations. He also said that Russia and the United States might launch joint operations against Islamic State militants in the Syrian city of Raqqa. (TASS, 02.21.17, AP, 02.22.17)
  • Russia is open for dialogue with the United States on safe zones in Syria, but believes that any such initiative needs to be coordinated with the Syrian government, Moscow’s top diplomat said Feb. 22. “Having described our understanding of what we can talk about, we are waiting for clarifications from Washington,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “We are also ready to discuss other proposals concerning our cooperation in Syria.” (AP, 02.22.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s developing plan to defeat the Islamic State may lead to significant alterations in the Syria strategy, including a reduction or elimination of both long-standing U.S. support for moderate opposition forces fighting against the Syrian government and the use of Syrian Kurdish fighters as the main U.S. proxy force against the militants. In addition to calling for “new coalition partners,” possibly to include operational coordination with Russia, Trump also ordered recommendations to change any existing military rules of engagement that are more stringent than what is required by international law. (The Washington Post, 02.22.17)
    • Senior U.S. military officials want to elevate talks with Russia about air operations over Iraq and Syria, an effort that is meant to protect pilots from collisions. “Our perspective has been that there needs to be another layer that allows us to have a more senior-level discussion, and we’ve got to work through where that layer is,” Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, the top Air Force commander in the Middle East, said this week, suggesting that adding a U.S. general with somewhere between one and three stars and a Russian counterpart would be helpful. U.S. military officials also have advocated for upgrading the technology used to communicate with the Russians, which up until now has consisted of “little more than a commercial phone line,” said Air Force Col. John Thomas. (The Washington Post, 02.24.17)
    • The ascent of the al-Qaeda-linked extremists in the northwestern province of Idlib coincides with a suspension of aid to moderate rebel groups by their international allies The Syrian government and its ally, Russia, will now be able to justify intensifying airstrikes against the area, perhaps in alliance with the United States, which is already carrying out its own strikes against al-Qaeda targets in Idlib, analysts say. (The Washington Post, 02.23.17)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said the United States will not agree to cooperate with Russia's military in Syria until Moscow recognizes that not all Syrian opposition groups are terrorists, European allies say. (RFE/RL, 02.18.17)
  • U.N.-brokered Syrian peace talks have resumed in the Swiss city of Geneva on Feb. 23, although the U.N. envoy to the talks said he was not expecting a “breakthrough.” U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura opened the Feb. 23 round of talks with separate meetings with the Syrian government delegation and the opposition delegation. Mistura said that Russia has asked Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime to halt bombings during peace talks this week in Geneva. Syria's ambassador to the United Nations said Feb. 24 his delegation is considering the details of an unspecified "paper" presented by Mistura. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17, RFE/RL, 02.23.17, McClatchyDC, 02.24.17)
  • Russia is pressing world powers to provide Syria with billions of dollars for reconstruction to bolster its faltering efforts to resolve the Arab state’s six-year conflict. (Financial Times, 02.23.17)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry said on Feb. 17 that long-range bombers had fired a series of cruise missiles at Islamic State targets around the Syrian city of Raqqa. (Reuters, 02.17.17)
  • Four Russian military advisors in Syria have been killed by a radio-controlled roadside bomb, the Russian Defense Ministry announced Feb. 20. The military advisors were killed in their car after leaving Tiyas Airport en route to the city of Homs. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)
  • Syrian rebel forces backed by Turkey have seized nearly total control of the city of Al-Bab from militants of the Islamic State extremist group, Turkish officials said. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • Syria's state grain buyer has signed contracts with local traders for 1.2 million tons of Russian wheat, a government source said, the country's second attempt at a huge wheat deal since October as it tries to secure supplies of the food staple. (Reuters, 02.23.17)

Cyber security:

  • France’s foreign minister has blamed Moscow for a series of election-related cyberattacks, saying that such actions were “unacceptable.” APT 28 has already compromised the computers of political parties in both France and Germany, which have national elections this year, says one senior industry analyst who declined to be named. Officials in the U.S., U.K., Israel and Germany have all told the Financial Times that they believe APT 28 is run by Russia’s sprawling military intelligence arm, the GRU. Moscow has consistently denied any connection to APT 28. (Financial Times, 02.23.17, RFE/RL, 02.19.17)
  • The Framingham, Massachusetts-based Internet security firm CyberX said it has spotted a new weapon in the ongoing cyberwar between Russia and Ukraine—a program called BugDrop that is being used to steal vast amounts of sensitive data from Ukrainian businesses and institutions. (The Boston Globe, 02.17.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest crude oil producer in December. Russia pumped 10.49 million barrels a day in December, while Saudi Arabia’s output declined to 10.46 million barrels. (Bloomberg, 02.20.17)
  • Ex-Soviet Azerbaijan is on track to send gas to Western Europe by the end of the decade, but is having to import supplies to use at home, compounding economic hardship that prompted protests last year. (Reuters, 02.24.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • Ford has become the first major foreign carmaker in Russia to see sales grow after three bad years. Since 2011, its joint venture with Sollers, a Russian partner, has ploughed $1.5 billion into making cars locally to local specifications. Now Ford's sales have turned a corner and rose 10% last year. (Reuters, 02.20.17)

Other bilateral issues:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump has tapped Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, a prominent military strategist known as a creative thinker, as his new national security adviser, replacing the ousted Michael Flynn. Last year, McMaster was reported to have been overseeing a high-level U.S. government panel intended to figure out how the U.S. Army should adapt to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Russian ability to shut down Ukrainian networks has “been a real wakeup call,” McMaster said at the time. McMaster also said last year that the conflict in Ukraine had revealed that the Russians have superior artillery firepower, better combat vehicles and have learned sophisticated use of UAVs for tactical effect. Should U.S. forces find themselves in a land war with Russia, he said, they would be in for a rude, cold awakening. (Chicago Tribune, 02.20. 17, Politico, April 2016, Defense One, 05.19.16, Breaking Defense, 02.06.16)
    • H.R. McMaster is considering a proposal that would restore the director of national intelligence and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to full membership in a cabinet-level committee. (New York Times, 02.22.17)
    • The Kremlin refrained from comment on the appointment of the new U.S. national security adviser, but one lawmaker said H.R McMaster was likely to take a hawkish stance toward Russia. Frants Klintsevich, a deputy head of the defense and security affairs committee in the upper house of parliament, described McMaster as a “100% hawk” who represents a threat. (AP, 02.21.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at the FBI over “leakers” on Feb. 24, as his top aides sought to debunk reports of White House requests made to the law enforcement agency. CNN reported Feb. 23 that White House officials had asked the FBI to counteract media stories about links between Trump’s campaign and Russian officials. The FBI refused the request. (Bloomberg, 02.24.17)
  • The White House chief of staff has denied that advisers to U.S. President Donald Trump were in contact with Russian intelligence during the election campaign. (RFE/RL, 02.19.17)
  • The Senate Intelligence Committee has sent formal requests to more than a dozen organizations, agencies and individuals, asking them to preserve all materials related to the committee’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and related issues, according to a congressional aide. (AP, 02.19.17)
  • U.S. Sen. Susan Collins said on Feb. 22 she’s open to using a subpoena to investigate U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax returns for potential connections to Russia. (AP, 02.22.17)
  • Russia is making an early debut on the 2018 campaign trail as a Democratic group targets Republican Sens. Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona, who are up for reelection for their stance on investigating President Trump’s alleged ties to the Kremlin. (The Washington Post, 02.23.17)
  • "The United States thinks it's possible to have a better relationship with Russia," said U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley. "But greater cooperation with Russia cannot come at the expense of the security of our European friends and allies." (Wall Street Journal, 02.21.17)
  • Moscow and Washington are not currently holding talks on possible dates for a first meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Feb. 22. (Reuters, 02.22.17)
  • Russia intends to stick to international climate commitments, though it may not argue with U.S. President Donald Trump if he decides to weaken U.S. adherence to the Paris accord, according to senior Russian lawmaker Alexei Pushkov. (Bloomberg, 02.18.17)
  • The Kremlin never commissioned any dossiers on the psychological makeup of U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. NBC News earlier reported that "a dossier on Donald Trump’s psychological makeup is being prepared for Russian President Vladimir Putin." (TASS, 02.22.17)
  • The percentage of Americans who view Putin in a positive light increased most significantly among Republicans, going from 12% in 2015 to 32% today, according to a Gallup poll. The overall percentage of Americans with a favorable opinion about Russia has also improved slightly since 2015, when it reached an all-time low at 24%. Now, 28% view the country positively, while 70% view it negatively. (RBTH, 02.23.17)
  • Los Angeles drivers spend more time in traffic than in any other city in the world, with an estimated 104 hours stuck in traffic over the course of the year. The next most-congested city was Moscow, Russia with 91 hours. (Boston Globe, 12.23.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • The Kremlin is planning record voter turnout for the country’s presidential elections in 2018. Officials have been instructed to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin takes his fourth term in office with at least 63% of the vote, equaling his landslide win in 2012. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)
  • Russia is likely to adopt limits on cash transactions in the future, though how fast they will be imposed is not yet certain, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Feb. 21 in the clearest high-level support in recent years for the idea. (Bloomberg, 02.21.17)
  • New York City medical examiners who performed an autopsy on Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations said Feb. 21 that more tests are needed to determine how and why he fell ill in his office and later died. Vitaly Churkin, who died Feb. 20 at a hospital at age 64, had been Russia’s envoy at the U.N. since 2006. Funeral services for Churkin were held in Moscow on Feb. 24. Churkin’s death brought condolences from diplomats and leaders around the world, with U.S. President Donald Trump calling him “an accomplished diplomat.” Moscow has appointed Russian diplomat Pyotr Ilyichev acting head of its mission to the United Nations. (AP, 02.21.17, RFE/RL, 02.23.17, The Moscow Times, 02.24.17, RFE/RL, 02.24.17)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia has created a new military force to conduct “information operations” against Russia's foes. “Propaganda should be smart, competent and effective,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said, announcing the new force. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.17)
  • Russia will continue to see the development of its nuclear forces as a top priority, but the military will rely increasingly on conventional weapons to deter any aggression, the Russian Defense Minister said Feb. 21. (AP, 02.21.17)
  • Japan has sent a note of protest to Russia over the country’s recently announced plans to deploy troops to the disputed Kuril Islands. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia "should deploy a division" there this year. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.17)
  • The fifth regiment armed with the S-400 Triumph missile systems has been put on combat duty in the Moscow region, the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. (TASS, 02.21.17)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Feb. 22 the deployment of a cutting-edge Bastion coastal defense battalion to Russia's Kamchatka province. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.17)
  • The United States and Russia were the top arms exporters over the past five years, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says. The United States accounted for 33% of global arms exports in 2012-16, with its value of exports rising 21% from the 2007-11 period. Russia accounted for 23% of global exports during the period, with 70% of its sales going to four countries: India, Vietnam, China and Algeria. (RFE/RL, 02.20.17)
  • Russia and the United Arab Emirates will get down to joint work on a future light fifth-generation jet on the basis of MiG-29 as of 2018, the chief of Russia’s Rostec corporation, Sergey Chemezov, told the media on Feb. 20. (TASS, 02.20.17)
  • German officials are criticizing plans by the Russian military to build a replica of Berlin’s Parliament building as a target for Russian teenagers to attack at a patriotic theme park near Moscow. (AP, 02.24.17)
  • The Russian space agency Roscosmos retired a Soviet legend on Feb. 22 with the final launch of a Soyuz-U rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to the International Space Station. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.17)
  • Russia’s largest private airline, S7, has been given a license to begin operations in outer space. The Novosibirsk-based holding company plans its first-ever rocket launch from Kazakhstan sometime this year. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • A lawyer for Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr., the Russian opposition political activist, has filed a request that prosecutors open a criminal case on suspicion of attempted murder. (RFE/RL, 02.22.17)
  • Russia's Supreme Court has released jailed opposition activist Ildar Dadin. Dadin was the first Russian to be convicted under controversial new anti-protest laws in November 2015. Judges ruled on Feb. 22 that while the law was legal under the Russian constitution, it should only be used against protesters who "posed a threat" to Russian society. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry has drafted new sanctions against North Korea, officially halting the sale of Russian ships and helicopters to Pyongyang. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)
  • Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) nudged past Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc for the first time in more than a decade according to a poll released Feb. 24. SPD leader Martin Schulz, like Angela Merkel, opposes easing economic sanctions against Russia until Russian President Vladimir Putin fully complies with a 2015 peace accord for eastern Ukraine. That contrasts with other senior Social Democrats, who have suggested lifting sanctions step-by-step in response to Russian concessions. (AP, 02.24.17, Bloomberg, 02.24.17)
  • Frauke Petry, the head of Germany’s new AfD (Alternative for Germany) party, just spent a few days in Moscow to build connections with Russian politicians. While the right-wing AfD is not as well established as France’s National Front party—which is leading in some polls for the forthcoming French presidential election—it has representatives in 10 of 16 German states. (The Washington Post, 02.23.17)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Feb. 18 she would like to discuss cyber-attacks and fake news with Russia, but it was questionable whether the problem of fake news could be successfully addressed before European elections this year. (Reuters, 02.18.17)
  • German exports to Russia will probably rise at least 5% this year, their first increase in years, Germany's Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations said on Feb. 24. (Reuters, 02.24.17)
  • The Kremlin has confirmed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Moscow on March 9-10 for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other bilateral meetings. The talks would include a meeting of the high-level bilateral cooperation council that will include negotiations on the possible purchase by Turkey of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. Talks between Turkey and Russia for Ankara to procure S-400 missiles have "progressed significantly," Turkey's Defense Minister Fikri Isik said on Feb. 22. Isik also said that Turkey's preference was to originally buy a NATO system, but that wasn't possible. (RFE/RL, 02.24.17, Reuters, 02.22.17)
  • Libyan Prime Minister Fayez Seraj of the U.N.-backed government in Tripoli said on Feb. 19 he would like Russia to help overcome deadlock in the country, which is struggling with divisions among militias and an Islamist militant threat. (Reuters, 02.19.17)
  • The Russian government has launched a “fake news-busting” website to put an end to what it sees as hostile and inaccurate foreign coverage. The new project is hosted on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry. (The Moscow Times, 02.22.17)

Ukraine:

  • A purported cyber hack of the daughter of political consultant Paul Manafort suggests that he was the victim of a blackmail attempt while he was serving as Donald Trump’s presidential campaign chairman last summer. The undated communications, which are allegedly from the iPhone of Manafort’s daughter, include a text that appears to come from a Ukrainian parliamentarian named Serhiy Leshchenko, seeking to reach her father, in which he claims to have politically damaging information about both Manafort and Trump. Leshchenko disavowed the texts. (Politico, 02.23.17)
  • A week before Michael Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way to lift sanctions against Russia. The peace plan for Ukraine and Russia was pushed by Michael Cohen, U.S. President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, who delivered the document; Felix Sater, a business associate who helped Trump scout deals in Russia; and Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Artemenko. Essentially, the plan would require the withdrawal of all Russian forces from eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian voters would decide in a referendum whether Crimea, the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in 2014, would be leased to Russia for a term of 50 or 100 years. (New York Times, 02.19.17)
    • U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen has denied acting as a go-between in a back-channel scheme to broker a secret Ukrainian peace deal. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)
    • The Kremlin said Feb. 20 that the Russian government does not know anything about a Ukraine peace plan crafted by an opposition Ukrainian lawmaker and two of U.S. President Donald Trump’s associates. The draft plan, first reported by The New York Times, calls for all Russian forces to withdraw from eastern Ukraine. It also calls for a referendum to let Ukrainian voters decide whether the Crimea, which was seized by Russia, should be leased to Moscow for 50 or 100 years. Russia isn’t going “to rent its own region,” Peskov said. (AP, 02.20.17)
    • Ukraine's top prosecutor says his office is investigating Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Artemenko on suspicion of treason after he presented associates of U.S. President Donald Trump with a controversial peace plan for Ukraine and Russia. (RFE/RL, 02.21.17)
    • Ukraine's former president Viktor Yanukovych sent U.S. President Donald Trump a peace plan for ending the conflict in Ukraine, in the newest freelance effort by a Ukrainian politician to reach out to the White House. (Wall Street Journal, 02.23.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an order recognizing passports issued by separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. (ABC News, 02.19.17)
    • Ukraine’s president on Feb. 21 called for new sanctions against Russia over its decision to recognize passports issued by separatist authorities in the east, while the Kremlin accused Ukrainian authorities of denying vital documents to people in the rebel regions. (AP, 02.21.17)
    • The United States says it is disturbed by Russia’s decision to recognize passports and other documents issued by rebel authorities in eastern Ukraine. (AP, 02.19.17)
    • The Kremlin on Feb. 20 defended its decision to recognize passports issued by separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine, saying it came as a response to Ukraine’s blockade of rebel regions. (AP, 02.20.17)
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to temporarily recognize passports issued by rebels in Ukraine violates the Minsk peace agreement, a German government spokesman said on Feb. 20. (Reuters, 02.20.17)
    • Russia's decision to recognize identification documents issued by separatists in eastern Ukraine will hurt the chances for a cease-fire to take hold, the head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe told RFE/RL on Feb. 19. (RFE/RL, 02.19.17)
    • European diplomats see the Kremlin’s move to recognize identification documents issued by separatists in eastern Ukraine as a warning to Ukraine and the West, amid disappointment in Moscow that the new U.S. administration has failed to side with Russia in the conflict. (Financial Times, 02.19.17)
  • Germany's foreign minister says there are no plans to add the U.S. to the group of countries that have been meeting in efforts to help reduce tensions in eastern Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel met his French, Russian and Ukrainian counterparts on Feb. 18 at the Munich Security Conference. (AP, 02.19.17)
  • The Netherlands' lower house of parliament has voted for the ratification of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, leaving a vote in the upper house—the Dutch Senate—as a final hurdle before the deal, which was signed in March 2014, finally can enter into force. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • EU ambassadors are expected to agree to extend asset freezes imposed against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and 15 of his associates for another year, according to EU sources. (RFE/RL, 02.21.17)
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he received a "very strong message supporting Ukraine" in a meeting with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence and recent talks with other top U.S. officials. "At the moment, I am happy how we are building bridges, and how our dialogue is working out for the best with the U.S. administration," he said. (RFE/RL, 02.18.17, RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • While in Kiev Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) called on the United States to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine so it can better defend itself against Russia-back separatists in the east of the country. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will expand its mission to Ukraine by increasing the number of monitors and broadening the scope of their work, OSCE Chairman Sebastian Kurz has said. Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of OSCE, said on Feb. 21 that a ceasefire in Ukraine was not looking "too good" and confirmation of the agreed removal of heavy artillery would have to wait until at least Feb. 22. (The Moscow Times, 02.23.17, Reuters, 02.21.17)
  • Ukraine has called for reform of the United Nations Security Council's structure to prevent Russia from using its veto power on the council to obstruct actions involving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.22.17)
  • There has been a hitch in the extradition of a Ukrainian business tycoon to Chicago. Dmitry Firtash, who has been indicted in a Chicago racketeering case, reportedly has ties to both U.S. President Donald Trump and the Kremlin. According to justice officials in Austria, Firtash's extradition to Chicago is on hold because Firtash is facing new organized crime charges in Spain. (WLS, 02.23.17)
  • Hundreds of people gathered in central Kiev on Feb. 20 to commemorate the third anniversary of the bloodiest day of protests that led to the ouster of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. (RFE/RL, 02.20.17)
  • A few thousand Ukrainians rallied on Feb. 22 to demand a change of political leadership in a demonstration that coincided with the third anniversary of the ousting of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych amid mass street protests. (Reuters, 02.22.17)
  • In an unexpected twist, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko now says his reported kidnapping was actually a sting operation designed to trap an organized crime group. Honcharenko on Feb. 23 told state news agency Ukrinform that he was "bait" to nab a group that was planning a series of crimes. (RFE/RL, 02.23.17)
  • Ukraine remains the top buyer of Russian beer and is now the leading buyer of Russian meat, pushing Kazakhstan to second place, reported Vedomosti in Russia, citing the Federal Customs Service. (RBTH, 02.23.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on Feb. 27-28, a presidential aide has said. (RFE/RL, 02.22.17)
  • European Union ambassadors have agreed to endorse visa liberalization for Georgia, a key step toward visa-free travel for Georgians to the Schengen zone. It is now expected that ministers from all 28 EU member states will rubber-stamp the item, most likely on Feb. 27. (RFE/RL, 02.22.17)
  • The unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic adopted a new constitution in a referendum on Feb. 20. From now on, the unrecognized republic will have a fully presidential system, and the word “Artsakh” will be added to its name. The referendum saw a voter turnout of 76%. The new constitution gained the support of 88% of those who cast their ballots. (Interfax, 02.22.17)
  • Azerbaijan's State Security Service (DTX) said on Feb. 24 that it had arrested two Azerbaijani nationals on suspicion of high treason. (RFE/RL, 02.24.17)
  • The president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has named his wife as the country’s second-in-command. (The Moscow Times, 02.21.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • "Responsible leaders should make a choice; I hope that the choice will be done in favor a creating a democratic and just world order. If you want, you can call it a post-West world order when each country, based on its sovereignty within the rules of international law, will strive to find a balance between its own national interests and the national interests of partners,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Munich Security Conference. (DW, 02.18.17)