Military & Security
Calculating defense spending can be anything but straightforward. We have chosen to use SIPRI’s estimates because they have been generally better systematized than some of the others, but even these should be taken with a grain of salt. If you’d like to know more about the pitfalls of calculating military expenditure, especially across multiple countries, we recommend this helpful explainer by Olga Oliker of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as this cautionary tale by CNA’s Michael Kofman.
The number of Russia's deployed warheads plunged in the second half of 2017, leaving the country with just 11 warheads more than the limit set by the New START Treaty. The U.S. is now below New START ceilings for all three categories covered by the treaty, while Russia is below them for deployed delivery systems and total launchers, deployed and non-deployed. As noted by eminent nuclear expert Hans Kristensen, the fact "that Russia currently deploys more nuclear warheads on its strategic launchers than New START allows ... results from an overlap in new systems coming online and old systems getting decommissioned." The deadline for meeting the treaty’s central requirements is Feb. 5, 2018, and Russia can easily fulfill them by then just by retiring or adjusting some Soviet-era MIRV'ed ICBMs. A detailed analysis by Mr. Kristensen, explaining Russia's nuclear modernization, appeared on this website in September 2017.
Source: U.S. State Department. Data current as of Oct. 1, 2017.