5 Things to Know

1. In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 232 square miles in Ukraine, which is an area equivalent to the city of Atlanta, Ga., according to data collected by the Institute for the Study of War and analyzed by RM for the latest issue of its Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In one of the latest reported developments on the ground, Russian forces were found to be less than 2 miles away from the key city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province on Dec. 12, according to Kyiv’s DeepState OSINT group. Pokrovsk sits astride a key road linking several cities that form a defensive arc protecting the part of the eastern Donetsk region that Ukraine still holds. Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Dec. 12 that “unconventional decisions” would have to be made to bolster Ukrainian defense in the east, according to NYT. Meanwhile, the state of Ukrainian fortifications in parts of the east was described by a Ukrainian corruption-fighter as “demoralizing” this week. Syrskyi’s call for “unconventional decisions” reminds one of a similar observation by Valerii Zaluzhnyi (one of Syrskyi’s predecessors) that for the Ukrainian army to succeed, it would need something “new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented.”*
2. Having previously responded to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles against mainland Russia on Nov. 19–20 by launching an Oreshnik MRBM at Ukraine’s Soviet-era ICBM maker in Dnipro, the Russian command chose on Dec. 13 to launch a total of about 300 shorter-range aerial attack vehicles in revenge for Kyiv’s Dec. 11 use of ATACMS against a military facility in Russia’s Taganrog. Ukrainian defenses reportedly shot down 81 out of 94 missiles and 80 out of the 193 drones launched by Russia against various parts of Ukrainian energy infrastructure early on Dec. 13, according to Kyiv. The salvo, which marked the 12th massive attack on Ukraine's energy sector, according to RBC.ua, caused five of Ukraine's nine operating nuclear power units to reduce output, according to the IAEA. More than 40% of Ukraine’s generating capacity had already been destroyed and occupied by Russia prior to late November, and it will take three to four years to rebuild the generating capacity, Ukrainian officials told NYT. That shorter-range and previously-used missiles were employed in Russia’s Dec. 13 retaliatory attack may indicate that, for now, the Kremlin has chosen to escalate its aerial offensive quantitatively rather than qualitatively.  
3. Russia fired more than 6,000 explosive drones and missiles against Ukraine over September, October and November, according to a WSJ analysis of daily data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command. That was over three times the number it fired over the previous three months, and more than four times the number fired during the same fall months in 2023, according to this newspaper. At the same time Ukraine’s ability to intercept missiles has improved after deteriorating earlier this year, according to the WSJ data. In October, 93% of all Russian drones were intercepted or lost, compared with just over 8% of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, according to WSJ. This assessment of the surge in Russia’s use of aerial attack vehicles, based on data from the Ukrainian military, contrasts with predictions made by Ukrainian military intelligence, as well as Western officials and experts as early in the war as the second half of 2022, that Russia would soon run out of missiles.
4. The outlines of President-elect Donald Trump’s initial efforts to end the war in Ukraine are starting to emerge for the first time, according to WSJ. While Trump has not selected any specific Ukraine plan yet, he does want Europe to shoulder most of the burden of supporting Kyiv, with European troops to oversee a ceasefire, according to this newspaper. No U.S. troops would be involved, according to Trump’s vision. During a meeting with Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris on Dec. 7, Trump also pushed the Europeans to do more to get the Chinese to press the Kremlin to end the conflict. The trio discussed using tariffs on China as a bargaining chip if Beijing doesn’t agree to do so, according to WSJ’s account of the meeting. Writing after the meeting, Trump declared: “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!” 
   1. Judging from Xi Jinping’s Dec. 12 comments at a meeting with Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, the Chinese leader may have heard the Dec. 8 call by Trump, who has unsuccessfully invited Xi to his inauguration. "In regard to the Ukrainian crisis, China has consistently emphasized its commitment to three key principles: keeping the conflict area from expanding, preventing any escalation and discouraging the parties involved from fanning the flames. China will stick to its consistent position and continue its joint work with the international community to create conditions that foster a political settlement of the crisis," Xi was quoted by Chinese TV as saying at the meeting with Medvedev in Beijing. In his account of the meeting, Medvedev confirmed that his host—who released a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine last year—"outlined China’s ideas of a possible settlement.” He welcomed Xi’s peace ideas, saying “we favor these proposals.” Moreover, it transpired later this week that Russia may also welcome at least one of Trump’s potential peace measures. When asked about the idea of sending a European contingent to Ukraine after a ceasefire is concluded to ensure its observance, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “All of this can be discussed during the negotiations, it should be discussed," according to Korrespondent.net
5. Russian officials have spent this week trying to mitigate the fallout for Moscow from the surprisingly rapid fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria. While Putin was reportedly demanding to know why Russia’s intelligence service didn’t spot the growing threat to Bashar al-Assad’s rule until it was too late, his officials met with representatives of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to try to convince them to let Russia keep its naval base and air force on territories in southwestern Syria, which this former al-Qaeda affiliate has come to control, according to Bloomberg. Putin made several public appearances this week, but chose not to comment on Syria at any of them, even though it was his personal decision to grant asylum to Assad after earlier telling him that no Russian cavalry would be coming to save his rule. Trump was nowhere as restrained in his take on why Putin chose not to try save Assad’s rule. On Dec. 8, the U.S. president elect wrote on Truth Social: “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• On Dec. 12, U.S. and European diplomats said at the IAEA that Russian attacks against Ukraine’s damaged power grid have increased the probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The agency’s 35-nation board of governors gathered in Vienna after Ukraine requested an extraordinary meeting following Kremlin strikes against electrical infrastructure. Two rounds of drone and missile attacks against power lines last month forced Kyiv to reduce output at the nine reactors still under its operational control. They provide the majority of the country’s remaining generation capacity. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, the IAEA had made a renewed call for Russia to stop targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: The agency’s board of governors signed a resolution addressing the threats that the attacks pose to nuclear safety. “The international community must increase pressure on Russia for its deliberate attempts to create a radiation disaster on the continent,” the resolution said. (NYT, 12.13.24)
• The missiles and drones Russia launched on Dec. 13 amounted to of the most massive combined strikes on Ukraine's energy sector. Five of Ukraine's nine operating power units reduced output, according to the IAEA, because of Russia’s “renewed attacks on energy infrastructure.” (NYT, 12.13.24, RBC.ua, 12.13.24) See more on this Dec. 13 attack in the section on military aspects of the conflict below.
• In what would be a first for a country under assault, Ukraine now aims to install more nuclear reactors. Initial construction has begun. At Khmelnitsky, a plant in western Ukraine with two existing reactors, connections are being built to a “shovel ready” area where four more reactors are planned, says Elias Gedeon of Westinghouse, an American partner on the project. Westinghouse is to provide two reactors. The other two, of Russian design, are to be purchased for $600m or so from Bulgaria. Nearly 60% of Ukraine’s electricity production is currently nuclear. (The Economist, 12.13.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia intends to supply North Korea with fighter jets amid growing military partnership between the two countries. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander Adm. Samuel Paparo revealed on Dec. 10 that Russia and North Korea struck a deal in which Russia agreed to send MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to Pyongyang in exchange for North Korea deploying troops to Russia to support Russia's war in Ukraine. (ISW, 12.10.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On Dec. 9, Russia’s presidential human rights commissioner said that Russia has returned the bodies of Ukrainian prisoners of war who died in a plane crash en route to a prisoner swap. Russia’s defense ministry accused Ukraine of firing missiles at the Il-76 transport aircraft in January, killing 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, three personnel escorting them and six crew members on board. (MT/AFP, 12.09.24)
• Russian forces in Ukraine are increasingly relying on civilian taxis to evacuate wounded soldiers from the front lines in the occupied Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• One and a half million more Ukrainians might flee abroad this winter. (The Economist, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 10, the U.S. said it has loaned Ukraine $20 billion backed by the interest earned on frozen Russian assets, part of a $50 billion G-7 support package agreed to this summer. (RFE/RL, 12.10.24)
• The United States will soon provide a total of more than $440 million to support agriculture, reconstruction and economic activity in Ukraine, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma said during a speech at CSIS. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.12.24)
• The National Bank of Ukraine expects $8.5 billion in international aid by the end of the year.  (RBC.ua, 12.12.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 232 square miles in Ukraine, which is an area equivalent to the city of Atlanta, Ga. according to data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War and published in the Dec. 11, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card (RM, 12.11.24)
  • The Economist estimated that as of Dec. 13 Russia gained 565 square kilometers (218 square miles, which is roughly equivalent of the total area of Columbus, Ohio) in the past 30 days. (RM, 12.13.24)
  • Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said that from September to November, Russia had seized more than 600 square miles of Ukrainian territory, roughly twice the size of New York City, almost all of it in the Donetsk region. “The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses,” he wrote. (NYT, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Vidrodzhennia, Shevchenko, Novotroitske, Pushkino, Storozheve and in Toretsk. (RM, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 7, Russian forced were reported have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town. Russian forces were likely attempting to flank Pokrovsk from the west and force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to minimize Russia's need to conduct frontal assaults on the towns’ eastern and southern approaches. (ISW, 12.07.24)
  • Pokrovsk, which had a prewar population of about 60,000, sits on a key road linking several cities that form a defensive arc protecting the part of Donetsk that Ukraine still holds. (NYT, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced in Trudove, Kurakhove, near Shevchenko, Vidrodzhennia and Pushkine. (RM, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 8, Zelenskyy claimed that fatalities among Ukraine’s soldiers since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 have reached 43,000. The toll was revealed by Zelenskyy hours after Trump claimed that Ukraine’s had “lost” 400,000 soldiers. The Ukrainian leader’s tally could not be verified independently, and it differs sharply from estimates by U.S. officials and military analysts, who have put the number of dead much higher. U.S. officials said in August 2023 that close to 70,000 soldiers had been killed, a figure that has probably increased significantly since then. (Bloomberg, 12.08.24, NYT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Russian forces were reported to have advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Ukrainka (southwest of Pokrovsk) and southeast of Dachenske (southeast of Pokrovsk). (ISW, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 9, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Novooleynivka, Voznesenka, Plekhovo, Oleksandriya, Hrodivka, Vidrodzhennia, Petrivka, in Sontsivka, Novotroitske and Shevchenko. (RM, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 9, a car bomb in Ukraine's Russian-occupied eastern region of Donetsk reportedly killed the head of a prison where dozens of Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russian forces were killed in 2022. According to unconfirmed social media reports, Sergei Yevsyukov was killed and his wife seriously injured when their car exploded in the Russian-occupied town of Olenivka. (RFE/RL, 12.09.24)
• On Dec. 10, a Russian strike killed three people and wounded 11 others in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, it was reported that in the eastern Donetsk region, Russian bombardment over the past day left two people dead and at least six injured. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, Ukraine rejected reports of a Russian breakthrough into the northeastern region of Sumy, characterizing them as part of Moscow's disinformation campaign while Russia again struck civilian areas in the northeast and south. (RFE/RL, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, Ukraine attacked Russian border regions with missiles and drones, sparking a fire at an oil depot and damaging an “industrial facility,” officials said. Two separate attacks targeted Russia's southern Rostov region and western Bryansk region. Kyiv said it struck an oil depot being used to "supply the Russian occupation army" in the Bryansk region, while the governor of Russia's Rostov region said a Ukrainian missile attack damaged an "industrial enterprise" in the port city of Taganrog. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
• On Dec. 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces downed 14 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast. (ISW, 12.11.24)
• On Dec. 11, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attack against a Russian air base involving six ATACMS missiles. (NYT, 12.12.24)
  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whom Time has designated the Person of the Year, criticized Kyiv for launching U.S.-made missiles into Russian territory last month. “I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia. Why are we doing that?” he says. “We’re just escalating this war and making it worse.” (Time, 12.12.24)
    • Some Trump advisers have privately welcomed the recent Biden administration decision to give Ukraine weapons that can reach deeper into Russia, believing it will give the incoming administration leverage to prod Russia into talks. (WSJ, 12.12.24) 
  • On Dec. 11, Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon spokeswoman, said it was possible that Russia could fire another Oreshnik missile “in the coming days.” But she said such missiles were “not going to be a game changer on the battlefield,” because Russia’s stock of them was limited and because they carry a smaller nonnuclear warhead than other missiles Moscow has deployed against Ukraine. (NYT, 12.12.24)
  • On Dec. 12, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia would respond to the ATACMS strike on a military airfield in the southern city of Taganrog, in the Rostov region. Putin has previously threatened to launch Russia’s new hypersonic ballistic missile, named Oreshnik, at the center of Kyiv if Ukraine does not halt its attacks on Russian territory with U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. On Dec. 13, Peskov said that Trump's opposition to Ukraine firing U.S.-supplied weapons deep into Russia "fully aligned" with Moscow's position. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24, MT/AFP, 12.13.24) See more on what RF MoD described as a response to the ATACMS attack further down in this section.
  • When asked, “We have the ATACMS missiles being used by the Americans. We have Russia now using its new hypersonic missiles. We have lots of nuclear talk. How dangerous is this moment?” Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister said: “Well, I cannot speculate about the policies which the Trump administration would eventually formulate. There are many rumors, many testing ground statements. As regards the danger, it is dangerous. And I hope you can at some point interview somebody from the American – Biden administration, because everything they do indicates that they persuade Europeans not to believe in Russian red lines. They push them farther and farther, providing an example like ATACMS to make the French and the British with their Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles more aggressively involved.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.07.24)
• On Dec. 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, Rozlyv, Pushkino, Cherkaska Konopelka, Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Sontsovka, and were pushed back from Kostiantynopolske. (RM, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 11, Nazar Voloshyn, Ukraine’s military spokesman for the eastern front, said on Ukrainian television that three army positions near Pokrovsk had been lost to Russian forces. He added that Moscow’s troops had entered Shevchenko, the final village on the southern approach to Pokrovsk. On Dec. 12, Russian forces were reported to have advanced within four miles of this strategic city for Ukraine’s army with important rail and road connections in a rapid capturing of ground in the Donetsk region.Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Dec. 12 that his troops were facing “extremely fierce” fighting as Russian forces advanced toward Pokrovsk, and that “unconventional decisions” would have to be made to bolster Ukrainian defenses. (NYT, 12.12.24)
  • On Dec. 12, Ukraine’s biggest steelmaker, Metinvest BV, halted operations at its coal production site near Pokrovsk. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Zorya and advanced in Novotroitske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka and near Veselyi Hai. (RM, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 12, Russian forces were reported to have come as close as three kilometers (less than two miles) from the southern part of Pokrovsk. (RFE/RL, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Russian forces were reported to have recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced up to the east bank of the Psel River northwest of Plekhovo and southeast of Kurilovka (both south of Sudzha) and recaptured Plekhovo. (ISW, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, a Russian court in its western Kursk region sentenced a Russian-Ukrainian man to 22 years in prison for trying to blow up a political office and handing information to Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Ukrainian drones targeted a police barracks overnight in the republic of Chechnya, in Russia’s North Caucasus, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said. It was the second attack on the site this month. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Mikhail Shatsky, deputy general designer and head of software at the Mars Design Bureau — which develops missiles used by the Russian military — was reported to have been shot dead in the Moscow region on Dec. 6, according to Ukrainian outlets, including Suspilne, RBC Ukraine and UNIAN. Ukrainska Pravda wrote that Shatsky was killed as part of a “special operation by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate.” (Meduza, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, the Defense Forces of Ukraine found themselves in operational encirclement in the Annivka area in the Kurakhiv direction. This was reported by the DeepState project on its Telegram channel Dec. 12. (Korrespondent, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 13, Russia launched 93 missiles and about 200 drones at Ukraine.¹ The Russian Defense Ministry called this attack a response to the Dec. 11 strikes of six ATACMS missiles on a military airfield in Taganrog. The ministry said that the target was critical energy facilities operating for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Western and southwestern Ukraine appeared to have borne the brunt of the attack. Critical infrastructure facilities were hit in the Transcarpathian region of Ivano-Frankivsk. The Ukrainian military managed to destroy 81 of 93 missiles, and 11 cruise missiles were intercepted by F-16 fighters, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. According to the Ukrainian air force, however, there were 94 rather than 93 missiles launched. (Istories, 12.13.24, NYT, 12.13.24, RFE/RL, 12.13.24, Kyiv Independent, 12.13.24)
  • Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the largest strikes” on his country’s power facilities. Ukraine's biggest private power company DTEK confirmed significant equipment damage to its thermal power plants. This attack marked the 12th massive attack on Ukraine's energy sector and the 9th on DTEK facilities this year. "This is Putin's so-called 'peace plan' — to destroy everything. This is how he seeks 'negotiations' — by terrorizing millions of people," Zelenskyy wrote. (WP, 12.13.24, RBC.ua, 12.13.24)
  • The full extent of the damage was not immediately clear. But Ivano-Frankivsk regional governor Svitlana Onyshchuk wrote on Telegram that the western Carpathian region suffered missile strikes during what she described as “the most massive attack” on the area of the war. (FT, 12.13.24)
    • More than 40 % of Ukraine’s generating capacity had already been destroyed and occupied before Russia’s Nov. 27 attacks, according to Stanislav Ignatiev of Ukraine’s Institute of Sustainable Development, a nongovernmental organization. “Unfortunately, we have to state that in the near future, we will be limited in generating capacity for at least three to four years until we build new ones,” Oleksandr Kharchenko, a director of the Energy Industry Research Center, an independent institute, said this week. (NYT, 11.28.24)
    • Russian missiles have knocked out roughly half of Ukraine’s pre-war electricity-generation capacity. (The Economist, 12.13.24)
• Russia fired more than 6,000 explosive drones and missiles against Ukraine over September, October and November, according to a WSJ analysis of daily data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command. That was over three times the number it fired over the previous three months, and more than four times the number fired during the same fall months in 2023. Ukraine’s ability to intercept missiles has improved after deteriorating earlier this year, according to the data. In October, 93% of all drones were intercepted or lost, compared with just over 8% of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. (WSJ, 12.09.24)
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a coordinated effort in August 2024 to create a centralized separate branch for unmanned systems, likely to reorganize informal specialized drone detachments and centralize procurement of unmanned systems. The Russian MoD is mainly trying to centralize the state’s control over Russian drone operators and developers, some of whom had enjoyed relative semi-independence from the Russian military bureaucracy. The Russian MoD is also likely trying to free up more manpower by disbanding informal drone detachments to generate assault troops in order to maintain the offensive tempo in Ukraine. (ISW, 12.12.24)
• Three weeks ago, Russia shocked the world by launching a nuclear-capable intermediate ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro after Ukraine fired shorter-range U.S.-supplied missiles at targets inside Russia. It was seen as a warning to Ukraine and the West about Moscow's readiness to use its nuclear-armed missile arsenal. Hours later, in a strike that drew less attention, Ukrainian drones hit the Kapustin Yar base near the Caspian Sea, from where the Russian missile was fired, according to Ukrainian officials. The attack showed Ukrainian capacity to quickly strike back at a target more than 400 miles away—much farther than the range of any U.S.-supplied munitions. (WP, 12.11.24)
• Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander in chief who called on Zelenskyy to mobilize more troops, is among those against conscripting 18-year-olds. "We need Ukraine to exist in 20 or 30 years," said Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's current ambassador to Britain, while addressing students in London. "That future lies with them—those who are 18 now. They are a completely different generation who will save this country." (WP, 12.08.24)
• Ukraine is racing to finish multiple lines of defense that could halt Russia’s swift advances, but efforts have so far been marred by delays and lack of coordination, according to Ukrainian officials and commanders. (FT, 12.10.24)
  • A communications adviser to Zelenskyy said Ukraine "will not compensate for the lack of weapons, aviation or long-range capabilities with the youth of our men, and it is unfair to demand this from Ukraine. Unfortunately, we've always had fewer weapons than needed and are far from matching Russia's advantages in aviation, bombs and missiles," Dmytro Lytvyn said in a statement. (WP, 12.08.24) 
• “The situation with fortifications is another factor demoralizing troops,” said Dmytro Razumkov, a former ally of Zelenskyy who is now on the parliamentary committee investigating delays and alleged corruption in the effort to build defenses. “Funds are scattered among all the regions and everyone is building their own thing. There is no one person who is responsible for the quality, for planning, for how these positions will be transferred and to whom, and who will supervise them,” he said. Most of the defensive lines in Donetsk region were completed in late October, but there were still gaps putting the Dnipropetrovsk region at risk, they said, between Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove as well as Kurakhove and Pokrovsk — where a second line of fortifications is still being built and a third has not yet broken ground. (FT, 12.10.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The Biden administration has announced a $500 million package of “urgently needed weapons and equipment” for Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. The package includes ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems, munitions to counter drone attacks, 105mm and 155mm artillery shells, HARM anti-radiation missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, multipurpose vehicles, grenades, explosives and protective gear against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. This is the third aid package for Ukraine from the Biden administration this month. On Dec. 2, the U.S. allocated $725 million in aid, followed by $988 million on Dec. 7. (Meduza, 12.13.24)
• The U.S. House of Representatives has approved the FY 2025 NDAA bill without a provision to extend the lend-lease program for Ukraine, Ukrainian Ambassador to U.S. Oksana Markarova announced on Facebook on Dec. 12. The NDAA does include a Congressional order to the heads of the National Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the CIA to prepare a report on Russian Federation sponsorship of acts of international terrorism, and an assessment of the likely course of war in Ukraine. It also provides for facilitating collaboration among the Department of Defense and foreign partners, including Ukraine, to identify and promulgate best practices, safety guidelines, standards and benchmarks. (Meduza, 12.12.24, Istories, 12.12.24)
• Outgoing Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell doesn’t know if the U.S. will spend more on Ukraine military aid but “the goal here is for the Russians not to win.” Of Ukraine and Israel, he says, “We’ve got two democratic allies fighting for their lives. I don’t think we ought to micromanage what they think is necessary to win.” (FT, 12.11.24)
• An additional 10 or 12 U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems could help Ukraine secure its skies and change the balance of power in Russia’s war on the country, Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 12.10.24)
• Ukraine has enough resources and weapons to resist Russia throughout the first half of 2025, even if Washington halts aid to Kyiv, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais published Dec. 11. (Meduza, 12.11.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Proceeds from Russian exports are accumulating abroad due to increasing delays in international trade settlements caused by U.S. pressure on financial institutions in countries that remain friendly to the Kremlin. Foreign financial assets increased by almost $60 billion in the first 11 months of 2024 compared with $43 billion in the same period the previous year, according to Bank of Russia data published Dec. 12. In November, they increased for the third month in a row. The central bank has pointed to an increased lag in foreign trade payments as the cause for the buildup in Russian companies’ accounts receivable. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• The Biden administration is weighing new, harsher sanctions against Russia’s lucrative oil trade, seeking to tighten the squeeze on the Kremlin’s war machine just weeks before Trump returns to the White House. Details of the possible new measures were still being worked out, but President Joe Biden’s team was considering restrictions that might target some Russian oil exports, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. That step was something Biden had long resisted over fears it could trigger a spike in energy costs, especially in the run-up to last month’s presidential election. But with prices for oil slipping amid forecasts of a global surplus in 2025 and fears growing that Trump may seek to force Ukraine into a quick deal with Russia to end its nearly three-year-old war, the Biden administration is now open to more aggressive action, the people said. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• The European Union gave preliminary backing to a 15th package of sanctions against Russia that includes an extension of an exemption for Slovakia to trade petroleum products derived from Russian oil through early June. The bloc is trying to phase out Russian energy imports, but this exemption will allow Mol-Slovnaft to export motor fuels made out of Russian oil to the Czech Republic, according to people familiar with the matter. EU envoys on Dec. 11 backed the broader sanctions package, which penalizes several Chinese firms that the bloc claims are helping Russian companies develop attack drones for use against Ukraine. The package still needs to be formally adopted by the bloc. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• The Belgian-based clearinghouse that’s holding the bulk of frozen assets from Russia’s central bank said that it shouldn’t be held liable if the European Union decides to confiscate the assets to help Ukraine. Valerie Urbain, the chief executive officer of Euroclear Ltd., told Bloomberg in an interview that any plan to seize the underlying assets should also transfer all the liabilities. (Bloomberg, 12.10.24)
• A former Chechen official is now the sole owner of Danone’s Russian business after the French yogurt maker finalized its exit, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported Dec. 9, citing corporate data. Danone announced its intention to leave Russia after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin placed its Russian unit under temporary state management in July 2023, and Ruslan Alisultanov was named its chairman of the board. Alisultanov previously served as deputy mayor of the Chechen capital of Grozny and Chechnya’s deputy agriculture minister. (MT/AFP, 12.09.24)
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a softer global oil market might create an opportunity for further action against Russia’s energy sector, as the U.S. continues its efforts to impair Moscow’s ability wage war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• Russia has manufactured seven passenger aircraft in the nearly three years since its aviation sector was paralyzed by Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, BBC Russia reported Dec. 12, citing unofficial data. The production figures for 2022, 2023 and 2024 contrast with the pre-war years. Russia manufactured 11 commercial aircraft in 2019, 12 in 2020 and 13 in 2021. It also falls short of the government’s sanctions-busting plans to manufacture 14 passenger aircraft in 2022, 25 in 2023 and 69 in 2024. An anonymous industry source told BBC Russia the plan to build more than 1,000 aircraft by 2030 was an “imitation of activity” designed to “calm government nerves.” An anonymous aviation sector expert said military aircraft manufacturing uses up the resources that would otherwise go to civil aircraft production, according to BBC Russia. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12 Finland stepped in to block two real estate purchases by Russian buyers in the latest move to prevent such deals from turning into threats to its national security. The decision by Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen announced on Dec. 12 comes just months after Finland stopped six property transactions by foreign buyers on national security grounds. It has also intervened in a number of other similar deals over the past two years. The blocked sales concerned one property in Parainen and five in Kokemaki, both in the southwestern part of the country, according to a statement, which also cited their potential to hinder the organization of national defenses. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• Escalating trade hostilities between China and the United States are putting drone supplies critical to Ukraine’s war effort in the crosshairs. U.S. media reports suggest Chinese manufacturers are limiting the sale of vital drone components to companies in the United States and the European Union that supply the parts to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 12.11.24)
• The Dutch government accused a former ASML Holding NV employee of selling the chip equipment manufacturer’s trade secrets to Russian companies. The 43-year-old Russian is alleged to have violated sanctions law by selling ASML’s documents to Moscow from November 2015 onward, the public prosecutor said at a hearing in Rotterdam on Dec. 9. (Bloomberg, 12.09.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• The outlines of Trump’s initial efforts to end the war in Ukraine from his visit to Europe last week are starting to emerge for the first time. The main takeaway: Europe would have to shoulder most of the burden of supporting Kyiv with troops to oversee a cease-fire and weapons to deter Russia. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
  • Trump said that Europe should play the main role in defending and supporting Ukraine and that he wanted European troops present in Ukraine to monitor a cease-fire, according to the officials. He hasn’t ruled out U.S. support for the arrangement, although no U.S. troops would be involved, the officials said. Any European troops on the ground would be part of a specific peacekeeping or cease-fire monitoring force and wouldn’t be a NATO operation, officials said. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
  • Trump also pushed the Europeans to do more to get the Chinese to press the Kremlin to end the conflict, according to a person briefed on the meeting. They discussed using tariffs on China as a bargaining chip, if Beijing doesn’t agree to do so. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
• Trump isn’t wedded to any specific Ukraine plan yet, aides say, and hasn’t thought deeply about the issue as he prepares to take power. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 7 in Paris, Zelenskyy used his first meeting with Trump since the U.S. election to explain Ukraine's need for security guarantees in any negotiated end to the war with Russia, sources familiar with the discussions said. Zelenskyy, Trump and Macron, who talked for 35 minutes without advisers in the Elysee's Golden Room, did not discuss specific details of any vision for peace, but Trump repeated that he wanted an immediate ceasefire and negotiations to end the war quickly, the sources said. (Reuters, 12.11.24)
  • During the Dec. 7 meeting, Macron told Trump: "There is no scenario in which Ukraine loses and America wins.” Several officials close to Trump have said he has geared his meetings to building a personal rapport, which is key to how he conducts diplomacy, and that he will ultimately make the call on how to proceed. Macron and Zelenskyy were on the same page at the Paris meeting, but were careful not to seem like they were cornering Trump, one official said. Another official said Macron and Zelenskyy explained to Trump that Putin in 2024 was not the same as he was in 2017. (Reuters, 12.11.24, Axios, 12.08.24)
  • On Dec. 8, Zelenskyy said he told Trump that Kyiv needed an "enduring" peace that Russia will not "destroy" in the future. Zelenskyy said the meeting was "good and productive" and added they discussed the situation on the ground and "a just peace" and agreed to continue working together and keep in contact. "President Trump is, as always, resolute...we all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. Peace through strength is possible,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. "Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else. Russia brought war to our land, and it is Russia that most seeks to disrupt the possibility of peace," he said. (MT, 12.09.24, Reuters, 12.11.24, Axios, 12.08.24)
  • On Dec. 9, Zelenskyy said he would consider the temporary deployment of foreign military forces on Ukrainian soil until full NATO membership as a way of securing his country as part of peace settlement with Russia. (RFE/RL, 12.09.24)
    • On Dec. 10, Zelenskyy said he raised the risk of a frozen conflict with Russia and pressed for security guarantees in talks with Trump and Macron. Zelenskyy said he sought to drive home his position that Ukraine can only enter into ceasefire talks from a position of strength and that that Putin doesn’t want to end the war. “Nobody wants to end the war more than us,” Zelenskyy said. “We need to force him — one can force him only if Ukraine is strong,” he said, meaning a robust military and the capability to launch long-range attacks. (Bloomberg, 12.09.24)
    • Before the Dec. 7 meeting, Zelenskyy had already spoken with Trump three times this year. (NYT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Trump wrote on his Truth Social network: “Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!” (Truth Social, 12.08.24)
  • Responding to Trump’s argument that “this is [Putin’s] time to act,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow’s “position on Ukraine is well known.” Commenting on Trump’s claimed loss figures in the war, Peskov said the numbers “present the Ukrainian interpretation and reflect Ukraine’s official position.” The actual casualty figures are “completely different,” insisted Putin’s press secretary, adding that Ukrainian losses “significantly exceed those on the Russian side.” (Meduza, 12.08.24)
  • On Dec. 12, Trump said he would use U.S. support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia to negotiate an end to the war, in an interview with Time Magazine. Trump, a longtime skeptic of continued assistance for Ukraine in its fight to repel Russia’s invasion, was pressed in the interview — published on Dec. 12 — on whether he would continue providing assistance for Kyiv. “I want to reach an agreement,” Trump said, according to Time. “And the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon.” (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
  • When pressed on whether or not he would abandon Ukraine, Trump said he would use U.S. support for Ukraine as leverage against Russia in negotiating an end to the war. “I want to reach an agreement,” he says, “and the only way you’re going to reach an agreement is not to abandon.” (Time, 12.12.24)
• European officials have said that in postelection conversations, Trump has mainly asked questions and sought out views on the conflict, and that they don’t think he has formed a clear plan on what to do. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, several European foreign ministers met in Berlin for discussions on security guarantees. NATO chief Mark Rutte invited the leaders of the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and Poland, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to meet with Zelenskyy in Brussels to discuss the security guarantees, according to two officials familiar with the plans. (WSJ, 12.12.24) 
  • Ukraine must receive strong and long-term security guarantees, stated German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Dec. 12. “This includes long-term military and financial support for Ukraine, which is fighting against Russian invasion," Baerbock noted during a conference dedicated to supporting Kyiv. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.24)
• Zelenskyy has repeatedly said that the only reliable security guarantee for Ukraine is NATO membership, but he has long accepted that this wouldn’t come before the end of the war. However, in recent weeks, with Trump pressing for a swift end to the fighting, Zelenskyy has started to shift his position, indicating he would be open to negotiations with Russia on the back of a NATO invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance in future. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 11, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called Putin following a meeting with Trump. Orban discussed ways of resolving the conflict with Putin in the phone conversation, the Kremlin said in a statement. At the same time, Orban didn’t deliver any messages from Trump to Putin during their phone call, the Kremlin said. There are no preparations for a call between Putin and Trump as the American side hasn’t initiated one, Peskov added. On Dec. 12, Peskov said Orban proposed a Ukraine Christmas truce to Putin. Orban claimed Dec. 11 that Ukraine had rejected the proposal, but Kyiv said it had not discussed the initiative. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24, MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
  • Ukrainian officials denied Orban's claim that Ukraine rejected his offer to mediate a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner of war exchange with Russia. (ISW, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, French President Emmanuel and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Warsaw to hold talks on the deployment of European troops along the future demarcation line after a potential freeze in the war in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Tusk said that his country's troops will not be sent to Ukraine even if there is a ceasefire. Previously, the proposal to send troops was also rejected by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. (Istories, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Andriy Yermak said Ukraine is not yet ready for negotiations with Russia. “To start them, our country must be strong enough to talk to the aggressor on equal terms,” he said. (Korrespondent.net, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Scholz said he is willing to speak with Putin again despite “frustrating” talks with him last month, according to German broadcaster RTL. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council and Chairman of the United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev told a reporter that Russia is ready to resume talks with Ukraine, but only if Kyiv recognizes the realities on the ground and Putin’s proposals.  (TASS, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 13, Peskov said Russia does not need a ceasefire with Ukraine, but peace that will come after all of Moscow's conditions are met. Journalists then asked him about the idea of sending a European contingent to Ukraine after the ceasefire is concluded to ensure its observance. "All of this can be discussed during the negotiations, it should be discussed," Peskov said, adding that there is no need to get ahead of ourselves. (Korrespondent.net, 12.13.24)
• Putin isn’t ready to negotiate an end to his war on Ukraine, so the U.S. and allies need to maintain the flow of weapons to Kyiv to pressure him into talks, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said Dec. 12. “Putin thinks that he’s winning the war, but he’s not winning the war,” Braže said. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• Also see section Conflict in Syria below.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• At a meeting in Paris on Dec. 7, Trump told Zelenskyy and Macron that he doesn’t support Ukrainian membership in NATO, but that he wanted to see a strong, well-armed Ukraine emerge from any cessation of fighting, according to officials briefed on the meeting. (WSJ, 12.12.24)
• NATO plans to assign new concrete targets for how many more tanks, planes and other weapon systems member countries need to produce, which may require raising the alliance’s defense spending goal to as much as 3% of gross domestic product, according to officials familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• Europe will need the U.S. to project strength to halt more aggressive moves from Russia, the Czech Republic’s prime minister Petr Fiala said, as he warned allies against “appeasement” in any process to end the war on Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 12.09.24)
• Gen. Christopher Donahue, whose military career has been marked by long stints as a special operator, took charge Dec. 10 of the U.S. Army’s mission in Europe during a change of command ceremony in Wiesbaden, Germany. (Stripes.com, 12.10.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and Chairman of the United Russia Party Dmitry Medvedev visited China on Dec. 11–12 at the invitation of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, meeting Xi among other officials.
  • It is necessary to promote diffusion of the of the situation in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Dec. 12 at a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev. "On the Ukrainian issue, China has repeatedly emphasized that it is necessary to firmly adhere to the three principles of preventing the spread of the conflict, preventing the escalation of military actions, and preventing the parties from adding fuel to the fire," Xi Jinping said, as quoted by China Central Television. China will keep up with its international efforts to find a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict, Xi told Medvedev. China will stick to its consistent position and continue its joint work with the international community to create conditions that foster a political settlement of the crisis," China Central Television quoted him as saying. China and Russia should maintain close cooperation within international organizations such as the United Nations, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to jointly safeguard global strategic stability. Xi said. (RIA Novosti, TASS, 12.12.24)
  • "The visit to China by Mr. Medvedev… is an important high-level exchange between China and Russia," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a press conference. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
  • Medvedev said that the topics of Ukraine and Syria were raised during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. "Of course, we also discussed how to further develop our relations, taking into account the changes in international politics. We touched upon the most significant events on the international agenda, including some recent developments, such as the Syrian crisis," the deputy chairman said. "Of course, we also discussed the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the ongoing conflict," he added. According to Medvedev, Xi "outlined China’s ideas of a possible settlement." "As you know, we favor these proposals," he added. "But there were other issues of mutual interest to our countries and to our parties," the politician concluded. (TASS, 12.12.24)
• The crises around Ukraine and Taiwan have been artificially provoked by the destructive forces in the United States and the EU, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said in his article "On national identity and political choice: the experience of Russia and China." (TASS, 12.13.24)
• The trade turnover between Russia and China will reach approximately $240 billion by the end of 2024, Dmitry Medvedev told reporters. (International Affairs, 12.12.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko said that “several dozen" Russian nuclear warheads are now deployed in his country and that about 30 sites are being considered as potential locations for Oreshnik missile systems, which were recently combat-tested in a massive strike on Ukraine. Lukashenko made the comments on Dec. 10 when visiting the Belarusian city of Barysau. They come four days after Putin said Oreshnik missile systems would be deployed in Belarus in parallel with their introduction into Russia's Strategic Missile Forces. Putin said the deployment of Oreshniks in Belarus could happen as soon as the second half of 2025. "Many have said, 'It's a joke, no one has deployed anything.' Yet we did. Saying it's a joke means they have missed it. They didn't even notice how we brought them here," the state-run news agency BelTA quoted Lukashenko as saying about Russian tactical nuclear warheads inside Belarus. (RFE/RL, 12.10.24)
• Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister said: “Once Mr. Kirby, who is a National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House, was asked whether the U.S. is concerned about possible escalation. He said, yes, we are, because if nuclear weapons are used, Europe would suffer. Mentally he cannot even think about the fact that the U.S. can suffer. With this mentality, it's very reckless for the current administration to push and push and push Europeans to the brink… So I hope reason would prevail. There are wise people in the United States, and we hope that they would be taking the final decision and not those who play with fire.” (RF MFA, 12.07.24)
• Knyaz Pozharsky submarine of the Project 955A/Borey-A class will be accepted for service in June 2025. The construction of the submarine began in 2016. It was rolled out of the construction hall in February 2024. It was said to be undergoing state trials in October 2024, but it is yet to conduct a launch of its Bulava missile. (Pavel Podvig’s Russian Forces, 12.04.24.)
• A tabletop exercise, conducted by the Washington-based CSIS and a war gaming lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, suggested a build-up beyond America’s current nuclear weapons modernization plans would not strengthen nuclear deterrence in a conflict over Taiwan. (FT, 12.13.24)

Counterterrorism:

• International powers seeking a peaceful transition in Syria will have to consider lifting the “terrorist” designations applied to the Islamist movement that led the rebellion to topple Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, a senior U.N. official has suggested. Geir Pedersen, the U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, told the Financial Times there was “no way to exclude” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of a former al-Qaeda affiliate that moved into Damascus after spearheading the lightning offensive that ended the Assad family’s half-century of rule over the country. (FT, 12.10.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• On Dec. 3, OSINT analysts noticed that Russian warships were leaving the port of Tartus. In their opinion, this indicates the withdrawal of the fleet from Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry insist that the ships left for planned exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. (Istories, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 7, Lavrov said that Syria must not be allowed to fall into the hands of a "terrorist group" as Islamist-led rebels advance on President Bashar al-Assad's seat of power. (MT/AFP, 12.07.24)
  • Near the beginning of his show on Dec. 8, Russian television host Dmitry Kiselyov referred to HTS as a terrorist group and former al-Qaeda cell. But by the end of the broadcast, he was referring to the rebels as the "armed opposition." (CBC.ca, 12.09.24)
• On Dec. 7, Trump said: “There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid… In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, and the United States should have nothing to do with it,” he added. “This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.” Trump noted that Russia, a longtime ally of Syria, seemed incapable of stopping a “literal march through Syria” because they are “so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers.” (Daily Beast, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 7, Lavrov said: “Our country has been a very big backer, not only of Syria, but also of Iraq, of Libya, of Lebanon… We don't want them to follow the fate of Iraqis, of Libyans and of other nations who were disturbed by the people desiring to keep their domination… the Americans have been leaving Afghanistan even more hastily, I think.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.07.24)
• On Dec. 8, Assad and his family arrived in Moscow. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador in Vienna, said in a social media post late on Dec. 8 that "Assad and his family are in Moscow" after going through what he characterized as a "difficult situation." According to Russian media reports, Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Moscow. The Biden administration could not confirm the information but said it had no reason to doubt it. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad "decided to resign" after "negotiations" with a "number of participants in the armed conflict" and left office "giving instructions for a peaceful transfer of power." (RFE/RL, 12.08.24)
  • On Dec. 8, the Foreign Ministry of Russia said in a statement: “Following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully. Russia was not a party in those negotiations. However, we call on all the parties involved to renounce the use of violence and resolve all governance issues through political efforts. In this regard, the Russian Federation maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups. We urge all the parties to respect the opinions of all ethnic and religious groups in Syrian society… Additionally, Russia is taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of our citizens in Syria. Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is no serious threat to their security at the moment.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.08.24)
  • Hours before he escaped on a Russian plane for Moscow on Dec. 8, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defense ministry on Saturday that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out, according to a commander who was present and requested anonymity to speak about the briefing. Assad told his presidential office manager on Saturday when he finished work he was going home but instead headed to the airport, according to an aide in his inner circle. Assad didn't even inform his younger brother, Maher, commander of the Army's elite 4th Armored Division, about his exit plan, according to three aides. Maher flew a helicopter to Iraq and then to Russia, one of the people said. Three members of Assad's inner circle said he initially wanted to seek refuge in the United Arab Emirates. They said he was rebuffed by the Emiratis who feared an international backlash (Reuters, 12.13.24)
    • There would be no military rescue from Russia, whose intervention in 2015 had helped turn the tide of the civil war in favor of Assad, or from his other staunch ally Iran. This had been made clear to the Syrian leader in the days leading up to his exit, when he sought aid from various quarters in a desperate race to cling to power and secure his safety, according to the people interviewed by Reuters. (Reuters, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 8, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success.” (Truth Social, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, the Russian Foreign Ministry that “Russian military bases in Syria are on heightened combat readiness.” (MT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, a Kremlin source was quoted to have said that the rebels who ousted Assad in a lightning offensive “guaranteed the security of Russian army bases and diplomatic institutions on Syria’s territory.” (MT/AFP, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Konstantin Kosachev, Russian senator, said the main priority for Moscow is “to ensure the safety” of Russian citizens in Syria. “If the Syrian people continue to require our support, it will be provided. However, it is unlikely to extend to the conditions of a full-scale civil war. Syrians will have to handle that on their own,” Kosachev said. “For us, as Russians, the primary task is to ensure the safety of our compatriots and civilians, including diplomats and their families, as well as, of course, the military personnel who are there for the sake of Syria,” Kosachev said, also referring to personnel at Russian military bases in Syria. (MT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Russian troops were reported to have requested Turkey’s support for their safe exit from Syria following a lightning Islamist-led offensive that resulted in regime change, CNN Turk reported Sunday. The broadcaster said that Russia would withdraw ground troops, but that the request did not extend to its Tartus naval facility or Hmeimim airbase, according to anonymous sources. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Dec. 9 that Moscow views the security of the bases as “very important.” (MT/AFP, 12.09.24)
  • However, also on Dec. 8, the author of the Fighterbomber Telegram channel, Russian Aerospace Forces Captain Ilya Tumanov, claimed that the Russian Aerospace Forces were preparing equipment for withdrawal from the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. According to him, the personnel of the Hmeimim airbase began to be prepared for withdrawal only after the militants occupied Damascus. Fighterbomber also claimed that the Russian army command has reached an agreement with the pro-Turkish forces and that Russian fighters should be allowed to retreat without a fight. (Istories, 12.08.24, Istories, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Norbert Röttgen, a member of the opposition Christian Democrats, posted on X: “Russia’s armed forces are so stretched by the war in Ukraine that they can no longer provide sufficient support for Assad.” The “big winner” from the crisis was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who Röttgen said was likely to use Assad’s downfall to try to return the roughly 3 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. (FT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha says that Bashar al-Assad’s downfall is a consequence of the Syrian president’s alignment with Vladimir Putin. “This is how it has always been and will always be for dictators who bet on Putin,” Sybiha, whose country is locked in a war with Russia, wrote on X. “He always betrays those who rely on him.” (FT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, U.S. airstrikes hit dozens of Islamic State targets in central Syria as President Joe Biden cautioned that Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power could open the door to a resurgence of Islamic extremism. (Bloomberg, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 8, Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs said: "We continue to support the territorial integrity of Syria, an inclusive intra-state dialogue and democratic procedures for the transfer of power by peaceful means. ... Tonight, in fact, the government was overthrown using extremist forces. And this is certainly a new shock for the entire region, given the numerous factors of instability in the Middle East.” According to the head of the Duma committee, the bloodiest scenario has been avoided so far. (TASS, 12.08.24) 
• On Dec. 9, Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said: “The fact is that Syria itself is a country, as if woven from many ‘patches.’ And the fate of the Syrian people and Syria as a state will largely depend on whether the various forces represented in the opposition will be able to find agreement.” (TASS, 12.09.24)
• In comments on Dec. 8 and on Dec. 9, Peskov said that what happened in Syria "surprised the entire world" and the Kremlin "is no exception in this case." He said Syria is facing "a very difficult period associated with instability," but the Kremlin will maintain dialogue with all regional countries "on Syrian affairs." (Meduza, 12.09.24, MT, 12.08.24)
• On Dec. 9, Peskov stated that the Russian military is taking all necessary precautions to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria and that Russia is "doing everything possible" to establish contact with those who can ensure the safety of Russian military personnel in Syria. Peskov noted that the Kremlin will host "serious discussions" with the future Syrian authorities about Russia's military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus, but noted that it is currently too early to discuss maintaining these bases since such a discussion involves "those who will lead Syria." (ISW, 12..09.24)
• On Dec. 9, Kremlin newswire TASS reported, citing an unspecified source in Latakia Governorate, that Syrian opposition forces have full control over Latakia Governorate and Tartus City, but that Syrian opposition forces have not and do not intend to "invade" the Russian Hmeimim Air Base near Latakia City and the naval base at the Port of Tartus. (ISW, 12..09.24)
• On Dec 10, Russia was pulling back its forces from smaller outposts in Syria. There were no signs by Dec. 10 of a Russian withdrawal from the Tartus naval base or Hmeimim air base near Latakia, both on the west coast of Syria. (FT, 12.10.24)
• On Dec 10, Kremlin said Assad personally opted to step down as president of Syria. “The process of ceasing to serve as head of state was Assad’s personal decision,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “We’ll leave the rest without comment,” Peskov added. On Dec. 9, he said similarly that the decision to grant asylum to Assad in Russia was Putin’s. Putin ordered the Russian military to intervene in Syria’s civil war in 2015, helping Assad crush the moderate opposition and the radical Islamic State group. Putin declared victory in Dec. 2017 and ordered the partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, a senior Biden administration official said Biden officials have had "constructive" conversations with the incoming team of President-elect Donald Trump on Syria. (WP, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, U.S. officials said they are sorting out how much equipment and weapons Russia, which long supported Assad and has several military bases in Syria, was able to take with it when its own forces withdrew from the HTS advance. Anything left behind could one day be turned on U.S. or allied troops, depending on whose hands it fell into, this person cautioned. (WP, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, Syria's interim prime minister took power with the support of the rebels who ousted Assad. In an address on recently captured state TV, Muhammad al-Bashir said he would lead Syria's interim authority through March 1 as the new rulers, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants, looked to solidify control after deposing Assad over the weekend. (RFE/RL, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 10, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Ryabkov, said that whoever ends up governing Syria, be it the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group, which led rebel forces as they stormed across Syria, or someone else, Russia “forcefully and strongly” believes that Syria “should be sovereign, unified and integral.” (NBC, 12.10.24)
• On Dec. 11, it was reported that the Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad. Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), (WP,12.11.24)
• On Dec. 11, Putin was reported to be demanding to know why Russia’s intelligence service didn’t spot the growing threat to Assad’s rule until it was too late. Russia persuaded Assad that he would lose the fight against armed groups led by the former al-Qaeda offshoot HTS and offered him and his family safe passage if he left immediately, according to three people with knowledge of the situation, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• On Dec. 11, the Kremlin condemned Israel's strikes on Syria and the creation of a “buffer zone” along the Israel-annexed Golan Heights, calling for rapid “stabilization” in the country that toppled its longtime ruler. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
• On Dec. 12, Trump said, “The Middle East is an easier problem to handle than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine… The numbers of dead young soldiers lying on fields all over the place are staggering. It’s crazy what’s taking place.” (Time, 12.12.24)
• On Dec. 12, Russia was nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to keep two vital military bases. Talks are taking place for Russian forces to remain at the naval port in Tartus and the air base at Khmeimim, according to people with knowledge of the matter in Moscow, Europe and the Middle East, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. The Defense Ministry in Moscow believes it has an informal understanding with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, the former al-Qaeda offshoot that led the offensive to oust Assad, that it can stay at the Syrian bases, the person in Russia said. The situation could still change amid the instability in Syria, the person cautioned. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
  • On Dec. 12, ISW stated that Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with select elements of the Syrian opposition about control over Russian military bases in Syria, but it remains unclear if the alleged agreement ensures the security of Russia's bases in Syria in the long-term. (ISW, 12.12.24)
• Prior to his ouster, Assad had squandered numerous opportunities to shore up his status externally and internally, with his stubborn refusal to make the kind of concessions that could have brought him international recognition and desperately needed economic relief. Russia, his chief ally, made strenuous efforts to bring about a peace settlement that would have been accepted by the West, but he refused to compromise when it came to his absolute hold on power. In the weeks before the rebel offensive, he rebuffed several fresh approaches from global powers that might have helped secure his rule. One, made indirectly from the United States through the United Arab Emirates, would have lifted crippling U.S. sanctions in return for Assad severing Iran’s ability to arm and sustain Hezbollah militants in Lebanon using land routes through Syria. (WP, 12.08.24)
• At least 543 Russian soldiers and mercenaries were killed during Russia’s almost decade-long military intervention in Syria’s civil war, according to a tally by BBC Russia. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• Lukashenko has publicly backed Assad as a long-standing ally. However, evidence suggests that he has also supported Assad's opponents. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, rebel forces likely indirectly received weapons from Belarus to fight against the regime: Weapons supplied by Belarus to Bulgaria in 2015 were subsequently transferred to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. (MT/AFP, 12.13.24)
• For more reactions of Russian officials and experts to Assad’s fall, click this link.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukrainian forces will reportedly receive increased access to Starshield, a more secure satellite network for Starlink terminals, which may give Ukrainian forces an advantage in the technological innovation arms race in which Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged. (ISW, 12.07.24)
• In recent months, Ukrainian officials have become more alarmed by the country’s dependence on Telegram, as worries that the app was used as a vector of disinformation and a spying tool for Russia have mushroomed. Ukraine is now trying to disentangle itself from Telegram. In September, authorities ordered the military, government officials and those working on critical infrastructure to limit their use of the app on work phones. More sensitive communications have been moved to encrypted apps like Signal. Some senior officials have proposed new restrictions for Telegram, including rules to disclose who is behind anonymously run channels with large followings. (NYT, 12.09.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft has agreed to the country’s biggest-ever energy deal with India. Rosneft has agreed to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Indian private refiner Reliance in the biggest ever energy deal between the two countries, three sources familiar with the deal said. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5% of global supply and is worth roughly $13 billion a year at today's prices. It would further cement energy relations between India and Russia, which is under heavy Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. (Reuters, 12.12.24, MT/AFP, 12.13.24)
• On Dec. 12, Ukraine identified 238 tankers it said belong to a shadow fleet of ships that Russia is using to keep its oil and fuels moving around the world—with a view to western authorities sanctioning the carriers. The Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said the list, published on its website, details an armada built up by Russia at a cost of about $10 billion. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• Gazprom said it set a new record for daily pipeline gas supplies to China on Dec. 7. Daily flows via the Power of Siberia gas link exceeded Russia’s maximum contractual obligations, Gazprom said in a statement, without providing a figure. On Dec. 1, Gazprom raised deliveries to the daily equivalent of 38 billion cubic meters per year, the design capacity of the Power of Siberia, it said. (Bloomberg, 12.08.24)
• Bulgaria said it may halt the transit of Russian natural gas to central Europe if Gazprom PJSC doesn’t find a payment solution amid U.S. sanctions. Bulgaria hosts a pipeline extending the so-called TurkStream network, allowing the transit of gas to Serbia and Hungary, with most of the capacity booked by Gazprom. However, the Russian gas giant uses Gazprombank—subject to U.S. sanctions—to pay state-grid operator Bulgartransgaz, raising questions about the reliability of supplies. (Bloomberg, 12.10.24)
• Hungary and Bulgaria discussed ways to ensure the continued transit of Russian natural gas after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, which until now received payments and transferred transit fees after the commodity. (Bloomberg, 12.13.24)

• The Austrian oil and gas company OMV has terminated its long-term gas supply contract with the Russian gas company Gazprom Export, a subsidiary of Gazprom, due to “multiple fundamental breaches,” according to press release from the company. (Meduza, 12.11.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia could be open to exchanging prisoners with the United States to improve relations under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. A potential exchange would be a “healthy step forward, especially at the beginning of the next administration,” Ryabkov said while clarifying that he did not “want to pre-empt anything.” (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
• “No, he hasn’t,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked if Trump had extended an invitation for Putin to attend the Jan. 20 transfer of power ceremony at the Capitol. A foreign leader has never attended a U.S. president’s inauguration, which is typically attended by ambassadors and other diplomats. CBS News reported Dec. 11 that Trump had invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to his inauguration. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• Russian citizens should avoid traveling to the United States where they could face arbitrary arrest, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Dec. 11. Maria Zakharova claimed U.S. intelligence services had recently begun “luring” Russian nationals abroad in order to press political charges against them which are not revealed to the public. She did not identify the nature of the charges or provide examples of any recent arrests. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia's rate of inflation ticked up in November as the value of the ruble plummeted to lows not seen since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, official data showed Dec. 11. Prices rose 8.9% on an annual basis last month, according to the Rosstat statistics agency, up from 8.5% in October and more than double the state's 4% target. The figure is a further signal the central bank is likely to hike its key rate when policymakers meet on Dec. 20, as it seeks to rein in runaway inflation and buttress the ruble. Borrowing costs are already at their highest levels in two decades. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
  • The ruble has recovered from a sudden devaluation last month, which was largely tied to liquidity problems in the wake of U.S. sanctions against dozens of Russian banks—chiefly Gazprombank. By the end of last week, the dollar rate climbed back above the symbolic 100-mark. The official exchange rate, which the central bank sets based on market trading patterns, was set at 99.4 rubles over the weekend. The rate for the euro, also based on interbank trading, was set at 106.3 rubles and the yuan was trading at 13.5 rubles. (BELL, 12.13.24)
• When Putin addressed an annual big-business gathering this month, he could not help but crow about how Western sanctions against the economy had failed. But despite the polite applause that greeted the Russian president, tension has been breaking out into the open among the Russian elite over the mounting cost of sanctions on the economy. Executives from major businesses have been warning in growing numbers that central bank interest rate of 21 %, hikes to combat rampant inflation—caused by sanctions and Putin's wartime spending spree—could bring the economy to a halt next year. There could be a rash of bankruptcies, including in Russia’s strategically sensitive military industry, where the boom in production fueling Russia’s war in Ukraine is forecast to slow next year, the executives have said. (WP, 12.10.24)
• Everyday Russians are counting the cost of an unnecessary war, as funding is drained from public services to fund Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s federal expenditure on defense is now 40% of the total. That’s a 68% rise over 2023 levels. Russia is now forced to spend approximately 7% of its GDP on defense. “That’s more than it spends on education and health care combined. That is an enormous drain on Russia as a country,” said chief of the U.K.’s Defense Staff, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin. (UKMOD, X account, 12.13.24)
• Chairman of Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin expects the meeting of major business representatives with the President to take place on Dec. 16. (Gazeta.ru, 12.12.24)
• Russia’s FSB’s Department for Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO) spearheads the largest internal repression since Stalin, targeting dissidents and foreign nationals, according to WSJ. It has arrested Americans like journalist Evan Gershkovich as leverage for prisoner swaps and conducts sabotage abroad. This shadowy unit, central to Putin’s regime, fuels espionage paranoia, purges officials, and cements Russia's authoritarian grip, according to the article, which Gershkovich co-authored. (12.13.24) 
• On Dec. 12, Russian lawmakers passed a bill that expands the grounds for adding individuals to the "terrorists and extremists" registry maintained by state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring. Current law allows the authorities to include individuals accused in criminal cases of extremist and terrorist activities. Under the new bill, the grounds for inclusion in the registry would extend to those who commit crimes motivated by political, religious, ideological, racial or national hatred. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)
• Russia’s State Duma has approved in the first reading a bill prohibiting migrant children who have not passed a Russian language proficiency test from being admitted to Russian schools, state media reported on Dec. 10. (Meduza, 12.10.24)
• At least 11 Russian regions will pay female students 100,000 rubles (under $1,000) starting next year in exchange for giving birth. The eligibility criteria vary by region, but they all require for would-be mothers to be full-time students and between the ages of 18-to-23 or 18-to-25 when they give birth. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• The number of military units loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has more than doubled during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the independent investigative outlet Proekt reported Dec. 11. Before 2022, Kadyrov had seven battalions, regiments, police and rapid response units under the formal command of Russia’s National Guard and the Interior Ministry. These military and paramilitary units are known colloquially as “the Kadyrovtsy.” Since then, Kadyrov has created 10 additional units, eight of which are under the formal command of Russia’s defense ministry and the other two under the National Guard. Separately, Proekt noted that Kadyrov also gained control of two other National Guard regiments by appointing commanders loyal to him at the height of the Ukraine war. It is not publicly known how many soldiers are in these units. (MT/AFP, 12.12.24)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Two courts in the southern Russian Stavropol region sentenced 10 men to more than eight years in prison on Dec. 11, each for an anti-Israeli riot at an airport in the southern republic of Dagestan, according to the Stavropol Regional Prosecutor’s Office. (MT/AFP, 12.11.24)
• Former deputy general director of the "Kursk Region Development Corporation" Igor Grabin has been placed in custody for two months. This was reported by the press service of the Kursk courts. The investigation accuses him of "unreasonable spending" of money allocated for the construction of fortifications in the Kursk region. (Istories, 12.09.24)
• Russia’s Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case against a military doctor accused of surgically implanting shrapnel to fake combat injuries in order to facilitate fraudulent claims for financial compensation, Alexander Bastrykin, the committee’s head, told RIA Novosti. (Meduza, 12.09.24)
• Plans to build “super prison” near Ulan-Ude, a city in Russia’s Far East, have been shelved, Buryatia Gov. Alexey Tsydenov announced during a press conference. For more than two years, Russia has been recruiting prisoners to fight in the war in Ukraine. The exact number of inmates recruited from prisons and detention centers remains unknown. However, in 2023, the number of inmates in Russian prisons decreased by more than 54,000 people. (Meduza, 12.09.24)

• Russia’s FSB said Dec. 9 it had raided a call center that defrauded 100,000 people in 50 countries, including the European Union. (MT/AFP, 12.09.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in Moscow on Dec. 10 as India continues efforts to balance military technical cooperation with Russia and maintain good relations with key Western allies. Singh announced the commissioning of a Russian-produced "Tushil" Project 1135 Burevestnik Krivak-class frigate into the Indian Navy at the Yantar Shipbuilding Plant in Kaliningrad Oblast on Dec. 9. (ISW, 12.10.24)
• The UAE finalized an economic agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union aimed at increasing non-oil bilateral trade through the reduction of tariffs and elimination of trade barriers. The agreement will encompass the five members of the EAEU bloc, made up of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, which the UAE has maintained a close relationship with post its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Bloomberg, 12.11.24)
• On Dec. 12, Romania's four pro-Western parties were reported to have agreed on forming a parliamentary majority to prevent far-right groups from joining the government amid political turmoil prompted by revelations about Russia's malign influence that led to the annulment of the first round of presidential elections won by a Moscow-friendly outsider. (RFE/RL, 12.11.24)
• Photographs of the fire caused by a suspected Russian incendiary device at a DHL facility in Birmingham in July have backed up intelligence assessments that the blast was strong enough to have brought down a cargo plane. (The Guardian, 12.11.24)
• A Russian spy cell operating in the U.K. planned to kidnap Roman Dobrokhotov, a Russian investigative journalist based in the U.K., the court has heard. Jurors heard about messages in August 2022 about getting Mr. Dobrokhotov out of the U.K. via boat. Roussev wrote: "I will brainstorm with Max [Dzhambazov] about Operation "Fishing Boat" for Roman Dobrokhotov end of week."(BBC, 12.11.24)
• Lithuanian prosecutors said Dec. 9 the Baltic state had arrested a member of the opposition Conservative party this year on charges of spying for Russia. The EU and NATO member state of 2.8 million people is one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters, and fears it could be in Russia's crosshairs next if Moscow were to win its war against Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 12.09.24)
• Russian police have arrested a German-Russian citizen for allegedly preparing to sabotage a rail line on orders from Kyiv, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Dec. 10, according to Russian media. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• A spy for Russia living in the U.K. discussed selling captured U.S.-made battlefield drones to a Chinese military contact, British prosecutors said on Dec. 9. Orlin Roussev, 46, told former Wirecard chief operating officer Jan Marsalek in June 2022 that their “Chinese friends” were “asking if we can sell them some captured in Ukraine American Switchblade Drones,” according to messages shown to jurors at the Old Bailey in London. (FT, 12.10.24)
• Putin secretly awarded the Order of Courage to two married sleeper agents who returned to Russia as part of a landmark prisoner exchange with the West, according to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service’s (SVR) “Spy” magazine. Artyom Dultsev and Anna Dultseva received a hero’s welcome, including by SVR chief Sergei Naryshkin and Putin himself when they stepped on Russian soil with their two Spanish-speaking children on Aug. 1. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)

Ukraine:

• On Dec. 12, Ukrainian policymakers unexpectedly raised borrowing costs for the first time in four meetings in an attempt to tame inflation that’s accelerated faster than forecast. The National Bank of Ukraine lifted the key rate to 13.5% from 13%, according to a statement. (Bloomberg, 12.12.24)
• Already 1.8 million adults and 520 thousand children have received a thousand hryvnias ($24) under the winter "eSupport" program from the Ukrainian government. Most often, the funds were spent on paying for utilities—64% of payments. 17% of citizens decided to pay for mobile communications out of a thousand, and donations to the army amounted to only 4%. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.13.24)
• According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, 11 members of the Verkhovna Rada of the IX convocation are currently wanted. Some of the wanted parliamentarians have already lost their mandates and are now living abroad. While four continue to remain people's deputies: Andriy Odarchenko, Artem Dmitruk, Yaroslav Dubnevych, Serhiy Shakhov. (Korrespondent, 12.12.24)
• The deputy head of a Ukrainian military unit in the Donetsk region forced his subordinates to work for his family and give away part of the illegally accrued combat payments. This was reported by the press service of the State Bureau of Investigation on Dec. 13. The damage allegedly caused by this official to the state is estimated at more than 3 million hryvnia ($72,000). (Korrespondent.net, 12.13.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• An energy crisis has gripped the Moscow-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia following opposition protests that helped bury a controversial Russian investment deal. Local authorities have begun enforcing rolling blackouts, suspended schools and cut off internet access to conserve power. Abkhazia’s authorities announced last week that Russia had suspended financial aid to the cash-strapped region, days after its leader resigned and lawmakers voted to scrap the controversial Russian investment deal. (MT/AFP, 12.10.24)
• Moldova’s parliament voted early Dec. 13 to declare a state of emergency in response to an expected cutoff of Russian energy supplies as Ukraine prepares to halt gas transit through its territory next month. (MT/AFP, 12.13.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine: “Because of Russian-Chinese collaboration, the war in Ukraine is longer and more brutal than it would otherwise be, the Indo-Pacific military balance of power has shifted away from the United States more quickly, and more countries dissatisfied with the constraints of Western-led world order are increasingly vocal and active in resisting it.” (CFR, 12.13.24)
• "The entire system of Russian presence in the Middle East, which was built over the past 10 years and in which very significant resources were invested, has in an instant turned into something from a political era that has faded into oblivion," mourned Mikhail Rostovsky, writing in the pro-Kremlin newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets about the fall of Assad’s regime. "This is a hurtful, unfortunate, even painful fact that cannot be denied or understated." (WP, 12.13.24)

Footnotes

1. Weapons used by Russia in the Dec. 13 attack included, according to RBC.ua:

• 4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles 
• 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
• 1 KN-23 ballistic missile
• 55 Kh-101, Kh-55SM cruise missiles
• 24 Kalibr cruise missiles
• 7 Iskander-K cruise missiles
• 1 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missile
• 193 Shahed attack drones

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP Photo.