6 Things to Know

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet U.S. President Donald Trump sometime in February or March, according to Leonid Slutsky, chairman of Russia’s State Duma’s¹ International Affairs Committee. The preparations for the summit are at an “advanced stage,” according to Slutsky, and Russia is reportedly considering Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as potential locations for the meeting. On Feb. 2, Trump said that members of his administration are already in talks with Russian authorities about ending Moscow’s war on Ukraine. “We are having very serious discussions about that war. We’re trying to get it ended,” the U.S. president said. On Feb. 7 Trump said he plans to host Zelensky next week and also have a conversation with Putin on that subject. Last month, Putin said that he was ready to meet with Trump to discuss the Ukraine war and other “areas of interest to both the U.S. and Russia,” and his spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed this week that Russian officials have been in contact with members of the Trump administration
2. This week has seen Russia and Ukraine indicate readiness to engage in peace talks, but Moscow has sent conflicting signals on whether it will drop its insistence that Vladimir Putin won’t negotiate with Volodymyr Zelenskyy because, in the Russian leadership’s view, the Ukrainian leader’s original term expired and because he himself banned Ukrainian officials from direct negotiations with Russia. On the one hand, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reportedly told reporters on Feb. 5 that “Mr. Zelenskyy has big problems de jure in terms of his legitimacy, but even so, the Russian side remains open to negotiations.” At the same time, however, Peskov was reported to have dismissed Zelenskyy’s recently expressed willingness to negotiate peace directly with Putin. “Readiness needs to be based on something … It can’t be based on a legal ban preventing Zelenskyy from holding such talks,” Peskov said on Feb.5.
3. Both Russia and Ukraine will have to make concessions to make the war end for good, with Kyiv being asked to hold presidential elections after a ceasefire, according to Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy "has already indicated he will soften his position on land," Kellogg told Fox News, adding that Vladimir Putin "is going to have to soften his positions as well." In separate remarks to Reuters this week, Kellogg asserted, to the dismay of at least some in Zelenskyy’s team, that elections in Ukraine "need to be done” if a ceasefire is achieved. In his remarks this week, Kellogg didn’t specify what concessions Russia would have to make,² but he did warn in an interview with NYP that the U.S. will be prepared to increase sanctions on Moscow, which, according to the U.S. envoy,  are presently only at a three on a pain scale of 1–10. Asked by Fox News how long it might take to end the war, Kellogg said, "I would like to say it's months, but it's not years." Both Kellogg and Zelenskyy are to attend the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on Feb. 14–16 before meeting again when Kellogg visits Kyiv on Feb. 20. Harvard’s Graham Allison believes a ceasefire can be reached within six months.³*
4. Russia gained 130 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (nearly 6 Manhattan islands) in the past month, according to the Feb. 5, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week, Russian forces were estimated to have penetrated the city limits of the vital logistics hub of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to the card. In the meantime Ukrainian forces were estimated to have advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Oblast after conducting attacks there on Feb. 6, according to ISW. One of Russia’s leading pro-war Telegram channels, Rybar, which is run by a former Russian MoD press officer, confirmed that Ukrainian armed forces did launch repeated attacks in the area of the Kursk region’s settlements of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Ulanok on Feb. 6. As a result of these attacks, the Ukrainian forces “managed to penetrate our defenses to a depth of up to 5 kilometers,” according to Rybar’s Feb. 7 estimate.
5. The meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels on Feb. 12 will become the first such gathering to be chaired by the U.K. rather than the U.S., albeit America’s newly confirmed secretary of defense Pete Hegseth will still be attending. This was reported by Politico after Reuters revealed that U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine were briefly paused in recent days before resuming over the weekend. Speaking on Feb. 5, Donald Trump stated he wanted a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earths resources in exchange for continued aid to Kyiv, a statement which was welcomed in Kyiv.
6. Syria is open to letting Russia keep its air and naval bases along the Mediterranean coast as long as any agreement with the Kremlin serves the country’s interests, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra told WP. Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged lawmakers to approve the completion of two additional generators at a nuclear power plant in the west of Ukraine. He discussed the plan with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi in Kyiv on Feb. 4. The project is “key to energy independence and energy stability,” Zelenskyy said in his daily statement. (Bloomberg, 02.04.25)
• On Feb. 4, Grossi visited Kyiv and inspected an electricity distribution substation, warning that attacks on Ukraine's power grid could pose a risk of a nuclear accident by disrupting supply. (Reuters, 02.04.25)
• On Feb. 7, Grossi said the number of attacks on the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine had increased. Grossi was speaking after holding talks in Moscow with Alexei Likhachev, head of Russian nuclear corporation Rosatom. Rosatom said in a statement after the Grossi-Likhachev talks that Ukraine was constantly carrying out attacks on Energodar, the closest town to the nuclear plant. (Reuters, 02.07.25)
• Ukrainian investigators have announced that they suspect a Russian general looting of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) during its occupation by Russian forces. The National Police revealed that employees of Russia's state nuclear agency, Rosatom, removed unique radiological laboratories, sources of ionizing radiation, around 700 computers, 344 service vehicles and dosimeters from the plant. The total estimated damage amounts to nearly one billion hryvnias. The suspect, a deputy chief of Russia’s radiation, chemical and biological defense troops, was tasked with overseeing ChNPP staff and studying the plant's technical documentation. (Korrespondent.net, 02.07.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• In 2024, more than 7,800 North Koreans entered Russia, citing "study" as their purpose, according to data from the Russian Border Guard Service. This marks the highest number since 2019, with over 3,700 arrivals recorded in the fourth quarter alone. The influx coincides with reports of North Korean soldiers being deployed to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. (iStories, 02.04.25)
  • On Feb. 7, Zelenskyy said that Russia has again brought North Korean soldiers into the Kursk region. "There were new assaults in the areas of the Kursk operation: the Russian army has brought North Korean soldiers in again,” he said, according to Korrespondent. Earlier, WSJ and AFP reported that North Korean troops appear to have been pulled back from the front lines in Russia’s Kursk region.⁴ (RM, 02.07.25)
• North Korea appears to be using its alliance with Russia to leverage the war in Ukraine as a testing ground to refine its missile technology and broader military capabilities. Reuters, citing two Ukrainian military-affiliated sources, reported on Feb. 6 that North Korean ballistic missiles fired by Russian forces since December 2024 have shown significantly improved accuracy. (ISW, 02.06.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The United Nations warned that Russian troops have been increasingly killing captured Ukrainian soldiers over recent months. The U.N. monitoring mission in Ukraine said that, since the end of August, it had "recorded 79 such executions in 24 separate incidents" committed by Russian soldiers. (MT/AFP, 02.03.25, RFE/RL, 02.06.25)
• Russia and Ukraine each said on Feb. 5 that 150 of their captured soldiers had been released in the latest prisoner-of-war exchange. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• On Feb. 6, Ukraine said it was ready to work with Moscow in opening a humanitarian corridor for Russian civilians stranded in border areas captured by its army. More than 1,500 civilians are estimated to be still living in areas of Russia's southwestern Kursk region that Ukraine's army seized in a shock cross-border offensive launched in August. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Children's Issues Daria Herasymchuk reported on Feb. 2 that Russia has illegally deported at least 20,000 Ukrainian children since 2022 and that Ukraine has repatriated 1,189 children with support from humanitarian organizations and Qatar, South Africa and the Vatican. (ISW, 02.02.25)
• There are more 200,000 Ukrainians who have arrived in the U.K. since war broke out on emergency three-year visa schemes that will begin to run out in the coming months. In a scheme that opened in the U.K. on Feb. 4, Ukrainians already living in the U.K. can apply for an extension four weeks before their documents expire, granting them a further 18 months. This has prompted many of the hundreds of thousands of people who have grown used to life in the U.K. to weigh up their future and the question of whether to return to Ukraine. (FT, 02.05.25)
• The end of Russia’s war against Ukraine could lead to an explosion of international organized crime, Poland’s president has warned, saying Kyiv would need “massive support” to ensure its security. In an interview with FT, Andrzej Duda said he was worried that when the fighting stopped crime would spill over the border from Ukraine into Poland, also affecting western Europe and the U.S. He likened the situation to Russia in the early 1990s when gangsterism and gun violence spiraled among veterans of the decade-long Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. (FT, 02.03.25)
• The Council of Europe plans to establish a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine in the spring of 2025. (Meduza, 02.05.25)
• Russian missile attacks on state-owned natural gas assets in Ukraine have forced the country to buy expensive replacement fuel from the European Union, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Airstrikes have curbed output from key producer Naftogaz Group by as much as a third, and the nation will need to import about 1 billion cubic meters of gas, said the people, who asked not to be identified. While that is less than 1% of Europe’s annual demand, it comes as benchmark futures trade near their highest in two years amid worries over supplies. (Bloomberg, 02.07.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:⁵

• Russia gained 130 square miles of Ukrainian territory (nearly 6 Manhattan islands) in the past month, according to the Feb. 5, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As of Feb. 8, Russia controlled 19.2% of Ukraine, according to the Economist. (RM, 02.05.25)
• In Jan. 2025, Russia's territorial advances in Ukraine slowed as they took approximately 320 square kilometers as compared with approximately 400 square kilometers in Dec. 2024, according to the U.K. MoD’s estimate. (RM, 02.07.25)
• Since September 2022, Russia has launched 17,883 drones, 341 ballistic missiles and 3,294 cruise missiles at Ukraine, according to the Feb. 5, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.05.25)
• On the night of Jan. 31 to Feb. 1, Russian forces launched seven Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast and occupied Crimea; seven Iskander-K cruise missiles from occupied Crimea and Donetsk Oblast; eight Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 aircraft; eight Kh-101/55 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers; 10 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from tactical aircraft over Voronezh Oblast; two Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles from the Black Sea; and 123 Shahed and decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk and Oryol oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 56 Shahed and decoy drones and that 61 drones were "lost.” (ISW, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 1, Russia said it had captured a village flanking the eastern flashpoint city of Toretsk in Ukraine as Kyiv said four people had died in overnight Russian strikes. The Russian Defense Ministry said its troops seized the village of Krymske in the northeastern suburbs of Toretsk, located in the eastern Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 1, the U.N. condemned a Russian missile attack on the city of Odesa in southern Ukraine that wounded at least seven people and damaged historic buildings. The Black Sea port, known for its picturesque streets of 19th-century buildings, is regularly targeted by Russian strikes. (MT/AFP, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 1, the Russian MoD reported that Russia's Black Sea Fleet used a drone to destroy a Ukrainian naval drone in the Black Sea. (ISW, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 2, Kyiv and Moscow traded blame for a strike on a school in a Ukrainian-occupied town in Russia's Kursk region, while Kyiv said weekend missile and drone attacks killed at least 15 people in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.02.25)
• On Feb. 2, at least 14 people were killed in Poltava, Ukrainian officials said, blaming Russia.  (NYT, 02.02.25)
• On Feb. 3, Ukrainian drones were reported to have struck more Russian oil and gas facilities, the latest in a near-daily series of attacks meant to hurt Moscow’s war effort. The drones hit Lukoil PJSC’s Volgograd refinery, which was last targeted on Jan. 31, regional governor Andrey Bocharov said, according to the Telegram account of his administration. (Bloomberg, 02.03.25)
• On Feb. 3, Russian forces were reported to occupy key dominant heights around the Pokrovsk region, which allows them to use drones up to 30 kilometers (18 miles) deep into Ukrainian front lines. (AP, 02.03.25)
• On Feb. 3, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukraine has started implementing organizational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a "corps structure." (ISW, 02.03.25)
  • Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said that Russian forces switched tactics in recent weeks, attacking their flanks instead of going head-on to form a pincer movement around the city. With Russians in control of dominant heights, Ukrainian supply routes are now within their range. Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders say they do not have enough reserves to sustain defense lines and that new infantry units are failing to execute operations. (AP, 02.03.25)
• On Feb. 4, at least five people were killed and 55 injured after Russian forces struck the center of Izyum, a city in Ukraine’s Kharkiv. (Meduza, 02.04.25)
• On Feb. 5, Zelenskyy revealed that 45,100 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action and 390,000 wounded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The figures, which include service members wounded multiple times, highlight the severe toll of the conflict. Zelenskyy’s disclosure comes amid ongoing debates about Ukraine’s casualty numbers, with independent estimates often exceeding official counts. (bne IntelliNews, 02.05.25)
• On Feb. 5, Russia's Defense Ministry said that its forces captured the village of Novomlynsk in the northeastern Kharkiv region and Baranivka, north of the town of Ocheretyne, an area where Moscow's troops have been advancing for months. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• On Feb. 5, a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region ignited a fire at an oil depot. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• In the night of Feb. 5 to 6, Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base in the Krasnodar Krai, causing an explosion and resulting in a fire at the facility. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces use the Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base to store, prepare and launch Shahed drones against Ukraine and to conduct maintenance for aircraft operating over occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. (ISW, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its forces repelled a Ukrainian assault on two villages in the partially occupied Kursk region in southwestern Russia. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, two teenage girls and a man were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia's southwestern Belgorod region. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Ukraine said that its armed forces had captured nearly 1,000 Russian soldiers in the southwestern Kursk region since it launched a surprise incursion into the border region in August. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised elite Russian VDV and naval infantry formations defending in Kursk Oblast on Feb. 5, highlighting the fact that the Ukrainian incursion has pinned about a combined arms army’s worth of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast since Aug. 6, 2024. (ISW, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on that day. ISW’s report, based on geolocated footage, confirms that Ukrainian troops have taken control of the small hamlet of Kolmakov, while also making advances near the settlements of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka. Pro-Russian military bloggers acknowledged Ukrainian tactical gains, stating that Kyiv's forces had penetrated Russian defensive lines by up to 5 kilometers. On Feb. 6, Ukraine marked six months since it launched an incursion into the Russian region of Kursk. (RFE/RL, 02.07.25, ISW, 02.06.25, RFE/RL, 02.07.25)
  • One of Russia’s leading pro-war Telegram channels, Rybar, which is run by a former Russian MoD press officer, reported on Febr. 7 that on the previous day the “Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) launched repeated attacks in the area of the Kursk region’s settlements of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Ulanok.” As a result of these attacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) “managed to penetrate our defenses to a depth of up to 5 km but have not yet achieved their main objective,” Rybar claimed. (RM, 02.07.25)
• In the night of Feb. 6-7, Russian strikes on Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region killed three people, Ukrainian law enforcement officials said Feb. 7. Prosecutors said the Russian military attacked the village of Miropillia shortly before midnight, which lies just across the border from Russia and regularly faces deadly air bombardments. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• Zelenskyy estimates that Russian forces have suffered roughly 300,000 to 350,000 killed in action (KIA) and roughly 600,000 to 700,000 wounded in action (WIA) since the February 2022 start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (ISW, 02.05.25)
• ISW reported a Feb. 3 claim by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties—over three Russian motorized rifle divisions worth of personnel—in January 2025, making January the second-highest month of losses since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. (RM, 02.04.25)
  • Vice-Governor of Primorsky Krai Sergei Efremov died in the war with Ukraine. Efremov has been in charge of domestic policy in the Primorsky Krai government since February 2024. He went to fight in the Kursk Oblast in August last year after the Ukrainian army invaded the border region. (Media Zone, 02.02.25)
• Russian investigative outlet "Important Stories" estimates that over 30,000 prisoners may have been recruited into "Storm Z" assault detachments. By analyzing social media posts from relatives searching for missing soldiers, journalists identified a pattern in the serial numbers of personal tokens issued to recruited prisoners between April and September 2023. This analysis suggests a high density of token issuance within a specific serial number range, leading to the estimated figure of approximately 29,000. This investigation sheds light on the scale of Russia's recruitment of prisoners for the war in Ukraine. (Meduza, 02.06.25)
• The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has appointed two new deputy heads of the Ministry of Defense. The positions were given to Yevhen Moysiuk and Valeriy Churkin. Moysiuk will be responsible for the development and generation of the Defense Forces, including mobilization processes and training of soldiers. Churkin is the head of the Center for Scaling Technological Solutions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 02.07.25)
• As Ukraine faces a desperate shortage of troops at the front line, there has been a wave of bombings against the recruitment centers meant to replenish the ranks, which law enforcement officials are calling a Russian-orchestrated campaign. In just the past week, explosions have gone off at three draft offices across the country. In two of the blasts, those placing the bombs were also killed, while 12 others were injured, including servicemen. Ukraine's domestic security service, the SBU, said that Russian special services are recruiting young men to carry out the attacks in exchange for money. (WP, 02.07.25)
• Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said Feb. 7 that it arrested four women who were allegedly acting as agents for Ukrainian special services and planning attacks against energy sites and military officers. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• A Russian state-run poll suggests that the Russian public maintains a high level of support for the war in Ukraine despite mounting challenges. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) released results on Feb. 6 of a survey of 1,600 Russians conducted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 2, showing that 67% of the people polled support Russia’s war in Ukraine and that 65% believe that the war is "going well" for Russia. (ISW, 02.06.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey will lead a Feb. 12 meeting of Kyiv’s allies under the Ukraine Defense Contact Group format, taking over from the U.S. for the first time, the British Ministry of Defense said. The meeting is scheduled ahead of a summit of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, but the Ukraine grouping, also known as the Ramstein Format, is far bigger, including more than 50 allies. New U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is traveling to Europe next week, plans to attend the Ukraine meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, according to one U.S. defense official and four people familiar with the plan. (Politico, 02.06.25)
• U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine were briefly paused in recent days before resuming over the weekend as the Trump administration debated its policy toward Kyiv, according to sources familiar with the matter. The shipments restarted after the White House reconsidered its initial assessment to halt all aid, two sources said. Internal divisions within the administration persist over the extent of U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort, with some officials advocating for continued military assistance. (Reuters, 02.03.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 3 said he wanted a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earths resources in exchange for continued military and economic aid to Kyiv as it struggles to halt Russia’s invasion. “We’re looking to do a deal where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things,” he said of Ukraine. “We’re putting in hundreds of billions of dollars,” said Trump. “They have great rare earth. And I want security of the rare earth, and they’re willing to do it.” (FT, 02.04.25)
  • Probably of particular interest to Trump are Ukraine's prospective deposits of lithium — used for high-tech components, such as those used in microchips and electric cars. Russia is also interested in Ukraine's natural resources, and one major lithium reserve is within 10 miles of the front line in the Donetsk region. (WP, 02.04.25)
  • A person close to Zelenskyy told the FT that Trump’s remarks “seem to align with the ‘victory plan’ presented to him in the fall.” The person said Ukraine had offered Trump “special terms” for co-operation on key resources, stressing the need to protect them from Russia and Iran. (FT, 02.04.25)
  • A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Feb. 4 that Zelenskyy's administration is "ready to sign documents about joint agreements" and that "having a strategic U.S. interest in Ukraine is a key component to our security in the future." (WP, 02.04.25)
• During his interview with Newsmax, Special U.S. Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg was asked to comment on Zelenskyy's statement that Ukraine received $76.5 billion in military and financial aid from the United States, although the American authorities allocated $177 billion for this. "We are also thinking about this. The United States of America, the American people, ordinary citizens have provided Ukraine with more than $174 billion. And we, in turn, have placed inspectors general in Ukraine on the ground and here to track where this money is going. So, we know for sure where it is going," Kellogg assured. (Korrespondent.net, 02.07.25)
• Ukraine is sending its largest-ever delegation to a gathering of politically influential Christian leaders in Washington this week, seeking to lay out an argument that protecting religious freedom is a strong reason for continuing U.S. aid to resist Russian aggression. (NYT, 02.06.25)
• American-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles have played a key role in slowing Russia's advances around Pokrovsk, say Ukrainian crews. Hundreds of A2 Bradleys have been used extensively throughout the war to knock out Russian vehicles and tanks, they say, praising the vehicle's intense firepower, high-tech target-finding abilities, and tough shell. (RFE/RL, 02.01.25)
• More than a week after it began, a standoff between Ukraine's defense minister Rustem Umerov and Maryna Bezrukova, the official overseeing weapons procurement remains unresolved and is beginning to disrupt arms contracts. Ukraine's arms industry trade group has said that more than 80 defense companies, accounting for about a third of last year's supplies to the army, ''are unable to receive payment for completed orders and sign new contracts.'' (NYT, 02.04.25)
• "The Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received a long-awaited reinforcement - the first French fighters Mirage 2000 and F-16s from the Kingdom of the Netherlands," Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said. (RFE/RL, 02.06.25)
• For Ukraine’s European allies especially, Ukraine’s main weapons procurement agency was largely viewed as a reliable partner through which to support Ukraine’s burgeoning defense industry. Approximately $1 billion was expected this year from European countries to flow through the agency, which would choose with the partners what weapons contracts to sign and then receive the funds for them. (WP, 02.01.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Trump is prepared to increase U.S. sanctions for Russia to bring about an end to its war on Ukraine, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to the conflict, exclusively told The Post this week — but he knows both Kyiv and Moscow will have to make concessions to end the “industrial-sized” killing in Europe’s largest country. Sanctions enforcement on Russia are “only about a 3” on a scale of 1 to 10 on how painful the economic pressure can be, Kellogg said. The U.S. sanctions themselves — such as those targeting Russia’s lucrative energy sector — are nominally twice as high, but there is still room to ratchet them up. “You could really increase the sanctions — especially the latest sanctions [targeting oil production and exports,]” he said. “It’s opened the aperture way high to do something. (NYP, 02.06.25)
• The U.S. Justice Department disbanded two key task forces focused on enforcing sanctions against Russian oligarchs and investigating foreign influence, Reuters reported Feb. 6, citing a memo that newly appointed Attorney General Pam Bondi sent to staff. The memo, issued on Feb. 5, said the department would shut down Task Force KleptoCapture, which was created under the Biden administration in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Bondi also ordered the closure of the Foreign Influence Task Force, which investigated violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• A few months after invading Ukraine, Russia sent a series of huge payments to Turkey. In short order, it transferred more than $5 billion with the promise of more to come. To the outside world, the money was to pay for Turkey’s first nuclear-power plant.  The investigators found that Russia and Turkey used the nuclear project in 2022 to dance around U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank. (WSJ, 02.02.25)
• Vienna-based Raiffeisen Bank International AG has been making money from firms supplying Putin’s military, according to documents seen by Bloomberg, as the Russian army grinds forward in Ukraine. Raiffeisen’s Russian unit received more than 62 million rubles ($620,000) in fees for its services from one Russian chemical company last year, bank statements and other documents show. That firm supplied a sanctioned company with ingredients needed for producing military systems, according to the statements. (Bloomberg, 02.03.25)
  • Raiffeisen Bank International said its net loss was 926 million euros ($957.9 million), compared with 272 million euros in profit a year prior. (WSJ, 02.04.25)
• Czech President Petr Pavel has signed the Lex Ukraine law, which effectively prohibits granting Czech citizenship to Russian citizens. (Meduza, 02.06.25) 
• Finland is moving ahead with its plan to stop property purchases by some foreign nationals after security concerns surfaced over such deals with links to neighboring Russia. (Bloomberg, 02.06.25)
• Finland’s government on Feb. 6 proposed a ban on property purchases by nationals of countries that wage wars of aggression, a move that would effectively restrict real estate transactions by Russian citizens. The proposal would bar individuals from nations “waging a war of aggression and posing a potential threat to Finland’s national security” from buying property in the country, the government said. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will disconnect from the Russian power grid Feb. 8, severing Soviet-era energy ties with their neighbor to the east. No trade of electricity has taken place since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but the link was critical to balancing regional consumption and production. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25, FT, 02.07.25)
• A Moscow court has ruled in favor of the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office in its lawsuit against the British logistics company Raven Russia, ordering the transfer of 16 warehouse complexes to the Federal Property Management Agency. (Meduza, 02.03.25)
• A luxury villa owned by Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov has been put up for sale in Bavaria for €25 million, according to Munich-based publication Merkur. The sale comes as part of efforts to recover debts linked to Usmanov, who has been under Western sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (iStories, 02.03.25)
• Sanctioned Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven have sold their stakes in Alfa-Bank and Alfa Strakhovanie, Russia’s largest private lender and its insurance arm, for approximately $2.5 billion. The stakes were sold to their longtime business partner Andrei Kosogov in a deal struck in 2023. (FT, 02.06.25)
• A sanctioned Russian billionaire has filed a bankruptcy petition in London against a former associate over legal costs stemming from a dispute about a stake worth hundreds of millions of dollars in one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers. Andrey Guryev has brought the bankruptcy action against Alexander Gorbachev, who unsuccessfully sued Guryev last year over claims that he reneged on a verbal promise — made partly in a sauna and on the street outside a pub — to grant him a substantial interest in PhosAgro. (FT, 02.02.25)
• Russian company “Pallada” linked to grain purchases in occupied Ukrainian territories delivered over 20,000 tons of wheat to Egypt in December 2024. The shipment, initially destined for Syria, was redirected to Egypt amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The transaction raises concerns about the exploitation of Ukrainian resources and the complicity of international buyers. (iStories, 02.05.25)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry has revoked the accreditation of Benjamin Quenelle, the French newspaper Le Monde's sole correspondent in Moscow. This follows a four-month suspension of his journalistic accreditation. (Meduza, 02.06.25)
• Russian authorities on Feb. 7 designated the Norwegian online news publication The Barents Observer as an “undesirable” organization, a day after Europe’s top human rights court ruled against its ban inside Russia. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• A company reportedly linked to the son of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is exporting coal from Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine to Turkey and other countries, according to an investigation by the exiled news outlet IStories. Oleksandr Yanukovych oversaw large-scale coal, gas and property development projects before his father was ousted in 2014 and the family fled to Russia. (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• On Jan. 30, Trump gathered his “whole confirmed team” of advisers and cabinet members focused on national security—from Vice President JD Vance to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—in the Oval Office, where Kellogg said they discussed how to use all elements of national power to end the war. The goal is to end the violence before negotiating such peace settlement intricacies, because “you can’t kill your way out of this war,” given Russia’s lack of interest in preventing massive losses of its own troops. “I go back to Teddy Roosevelt and the Treaty of Portsmouth [that ended the Russo-Japanese War in 1905,]” he said. “The czar of Russia and the Japanese were ready to walk out the door [during negotiations] and Roosevelt basically got them together and said, ‘Both of you got to give a little’ and they did.” (NYP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 1, Trump’s Ukraine and Russia envoy Keith Kellogg said Trump has a “solid” strategy to end the war in Ukraine within months. (RFE/RL, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 1, Zelenskyy said that excluding his country from talks between the U.S. and Russia about the war in Ukraine would be “very dangerous” and asked for more discussions between Kyiv and Washington to develop a plan for a ceasefire. (AP, 02.01.25)
• On Feb. 1, Kellogg brought a simmering, sensitive issue in Ukrainian politics to the fore as U.S. efforts to start peace talks mount and as the Kremlin seeks to discredit Zelenskyy by claiming he is illegitimate. In an interview with Reuters, Kellogg said elections in Ukraine "need to be done" and could be held following a cease-fire deal, something he has said could be achieved within months. "Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Kellogg told Reuters. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running." (RFE/RL, 02.05.25)
  • An aide to Zelenskyy said the U.S. call for Ukraine to hold an election after agreeing a ceasefire with Russia looked like a "failed plan" if that is all it consists of, though more details were needed. (Reuters, 02.02.25)
• On Feb. 2, Trump said members of his administration are already in talks with Russian authorities about ending Moscow’s war on Ukraine. “We will be speaking, and I think we’ll perhaps do something that’ll be significant,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We want to end that war,” he said. When asked whether he had personally spoken to Putin over the phone, Trump told reporters: “I don’t want to say that.” “We are having very serious discussions about that war. We’re trying to get it ended,” the U.S. president said. (MT/AFP, 02.03.25)
• On Feb. 2, Trump's Ukraine envoy said that both Kyiv and Moscow would have to make concessions if they are to successfully negotiate a solution to the ongoing war. "I think both sides will give a little bit," Kellogg said. Zelenskyy "has already indicated he will soften his position on land," said Kellogg, adding that Putin "is going to have to soften his positions as well." (MT/AFP, 02.02.25)
• On Feb. 3, Russia was reported to be considering Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as potential locations for a possible meeting between Putin and Trump. (Meduza, 02.03.25)
• On Feb. 4, Zelenskyy said he would agree to direct talks with Putin to end almost three years of war, but he would do so if that is the only way to bring peace to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.04.25)
• On Feb. 5, the Kremlin confirmed that Russian officials have been in contact with members of the Trump administration but did not say whether the discussions focused on ending the war in Ukraine. “There are indeed contacts between certain agencies, and they have intensified recently,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “I can’t share any further details.” (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• On Feb. 5, Peskov said: “Mr. Zelenskyy has big problems de jure in terms of his legitimacy, but even so, the Russian side remains open to negotiations.” At the same time he dismissed Zelenskyy’s recently expressed willingness to negotiate peace directly with Putin. “Readiness needs to be based on something ... It can’t be based on a legal ban preventing Zelenskyy from holding such talks,” Peskov said, referring to the Ukrainian leader’s announcement in 2022 that he would not hold peace talks with Moscow while Putin was president. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25, MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Leonid Slutsky, chairman of Russia’s State Duma’s International Affairs Committee, told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin could meet with U.S. President Donald Trump sometime in February or March. He said preparations for the summit were at an “advanced stage.” “Whether it’s February or March, let’s not speculate — let the leaders competently and comprehensively prepare for it,” Slutsky said, adding that more details on the meeting would “appear soon.” The Kremlin confirmed on Feb. 5 that Russian officials had recently “intensified” contacts with members of Trump’s administration. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, Kellogg denied report by Bloomberg that he would present Trump’s plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war at the Munich Security Conference. Kellogg stated that Trump himself would present the plan at a later date, adding that he would discuss the matter with European leaders before reporting back to the U.S. president. The envoy emphasized that his team would base its next steps on the outcome of these discussions. (Meduza, 02.06.25)
• On Feb. 6, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States held what she said was a “thorough discussion” with Kellogg. The meeting on Feb. 6 between Oksana Markarova and Kellogg took place after Kellogg rejected a report that he would present a peace plan for Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference next week. (RFE/RL, 02.07.25)
• On Feb. 7, Trump said: “I will probably be meeting with President Zelenskyy next week, and I will probably be talking to President [Vladimir] Putin. I'd like to see the war end.” Trump also said he is going to discuss protection of Ukraine’s natural resources. In an interview with Reuters on Feb. 7, Zelenskyy said it is "very important" that he and Trump meet before Trump meets with Putin, stating that "otherwise it will look like a dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine." (Kyiv Independent, 02.07.25, RFE/RL, 02.07.25, Korrespondent.net, 02.07.25)
• On Feb. 7, Ukraine’s Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak was reported to have had a conversation with Kellogg. They discussed Kellogg's visit to Ukraine, which is expected to take place on Feb. 20. (RBC.ua, 02.07.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Things in the Arctic have never been hotter. In the past year, Russian nuclear submarines have practiced firing cruise missiles near NATO members Norway, Finland and Sweden. That drill followed Arctic wargames by NATO that included amphibious assaults in the frigid seas. (WSJ, 02.03.25)
• Norwegian intelligence services claimed Feb. 5 that Russia would "likely" launch sabotage attacks against the country sometime this year, potentially targeting energy infrastructure or aid sent to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• Authorities in northern Norway released a vessel that was suspected of the latest data cable breach in the Baltic Sea, saying no evidence had been found linking it to the incident. The vessel Silver Dania, en route between the Russian ports of St. Petersburg and Murmansk, was detained on Feb. 6 on suspicion that it had damaged a cable between Sweden and Latvia on Sunday. (Bloomberg, 02.01.25)
• Denmark will ramp up inspections of ships transporting Russian oil through its narrow straits, in an effort to protect the environment and maritime safety from older vessels in Moscow’s shadow fleet. (Bloomberg, 02.05.25)
• Swedish prosecutors on Feb. 3 ruled out sabotage in the case of a damaged undersea cable and said they were releasing a Bulgarian ship seized in connection with the incident, determining the damage was accidental. Sweden detained the Malta-flagged Vezhen after discovering damage to a fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia on Jan. 26. (MT/AFP, 02.03.25)
• Jens Stoltenberg has rejected accusations that Norway was a “war profiteer” for selling record quantities of oil and gas to Europe after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The former NATO secretary-general, who took over as Norwegian finance minister earlier this week, told the Financial Times that he disagreed with academics and media suggesting his country had made huge profits since 2022 and insisted Oslo provided essential alternative energy supplies for Europe in a time of crisis. (FT, 02.07.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• U.S. Presidential Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has rejected the possibility of providing Kyiv with nuclear weapons as a guarantee of security for the country. “The probability that they will get their nuclear weapons back is somewhere between minimal and zero. Let’s be honest, we both know that’s not going to happen,” he said in an interview with Fox News. Zelenskyy said in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan on Feb. 4 that nuclear weapons could be a sufficient guarantee of security if Ukraine is not accepted into NATO. This is how the president responded to the question of what he considers as security guarantees against a new attack by Putin. (Meduza, 02.06.25)
  • The Kremlin has condemned Zelenskyy’s suggestion that Ukraine might seek nuclear weapons as an alternative to NATO membership, calling it "madness." Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized the dangers of such discussions and expressed hope that the West recognizes the “absurdity and potential danger” of providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine. He also criticized the current generation of European politicians, suggesting they lack the necessary understanding of the nuclear threat. (Meduza, 02.05.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria is open to letting Russia keep its air and naval bases along the Mediterranean coast as long as any agreement with the Kremlin serves the country’s interests, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said in an interview this week, underscoring the pragmatic approach taken by his government as it charts new alliances and reassesses old ones forged under the previous regime. Until recently, rebel fighters like Abu Qasra, a key leader in Syria’s insurgency, were under constant bombardment by Russian warplanes. But “in politics, there are no permanent enemies,” he said of Moscow, once Assad’s most powerful ally. Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.” (WP, 02.07.25)
• A significant number of Russian vessels that had been at the Port of Tartus in recent weeks may have left Syria for Russia as Russian-Syrian negotiations about Russia's continued access to its bases in Syria reportedly continue. Ukrainian naval drone strikes have likely forced Russia to dramatically alter Russian ships' routes between Russia and Syria. (ISW, 02.04.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian military personnel in occupied Ukraine have reported widespread disruptions to Starlink satellite communication terminals, according to pro-invasion bloggers. The outages, which began on Feb. 4, affected approximately 10% of terminals across the front lines. Starlink, provided to Ukraine by SpaceX, has been a critical tool for Ukrainian forces, while Russian troops have reportedly acquired the devices on the black market. The cause of the disruptions remains unclear. (Meduza, 02.05.25)
• European prosecutors are investigating the involvement of Atos Russia, a subsidiary of French IT group Atos, in building the EU's new electronic border system (EES). The system, once operational, will store biometric and personal data on all non-EU visitors. The investigation centers around Atos's use of its Moscow office, which operated under a license potentially granting Russia's FSB access to its work, to purchase software for the project in 2021. This raises concerns about potential security vulnerabilities, given the sensitive nature of the data the EES will handle. While Atos claims to have divested from its Russian business in 2022, the investigation highlights potential security risks linked to the involvement of Russian personnel in developing sensitive EU infrastructure. (Financial Times, 02.06.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s flagship crude oil has dropped back below a price cap of $60 a barrel for the first time since December, one of several indicators that fresh U.S. sanctions on Moscow may be biting. Sellers of Urals, the nation’s key export grade, are having to swallow discounts of as much as $16 a barrel, according to data from Argus Media. (Bloomberg, 02.06.25)
• The cost of finding a tanker to carry Russia’s flagship Urals oil to Asia has already jumped by almost 50% since the latest U.S. measures were introduced, according to data from Argus Media. The gap between prices when the barrels leave Russia and arrive in Asia, a proxy for delivery costs, have also soared. (Bloomberg, 02.07.25)
• Russia’s Gazprom PJSC started sending gas to Slovakia through the TurkStream pipeline, easing some supply concerns a month after flows via Ukraine were cut off. (Bloomberg, 02.06.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump’s decree halting American aid to foreign countries and suspending the work of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) hits exiled Russian media and NGOs hard. According to The Moscow Times, citing a source in Washington, up to 90 organizations have already lost their funding. (Bell, 02.05.25)
  • On Feb. 6 Russia welcomed the new U.S. administration's decision to shutter USAID as an independent agency, calling the humanitarian body a "machine for interfering" in global affairs. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's controversial pick to serve as director of national intelligence, cleared a procedural vote Feb. 4, paving the way toward a wider Senate vote on her confirmation. (WP, 02.05.25)
  • Gabbard conducted a trip to Italy in 2024 that had implications on her status as a traveler. Gabbard flew to Rome in July to attend a meeting in Vatican City organized by a European businessman who runs a foundation. That businessman, according to the two senior U.S. officials, appeared on a watch list maintained by the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center. The businessman has described himself as a private equity investor who had previously invested in Russia. In 2015, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, a nonprofit organization, published what it said was a social media post in which the European businessman appeared to pose with, and praise, Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who helped Moscow annex Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. The businessman said that the social media post in question was fake and that he had no relationship with Girkin. Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman who served as the acting White House chief of staff and the director of the Office of Management and Budget during Trump’s first term in office, said he invited Gabbard—who by then was no longer in Congress and was supporting Trump’s campaign—to attend the July meeting in Vatican City. (NYT, 01.28.25)
• Billionaire Elon Musk and U.S. first son Donald Trump Jr. have both shared a video on X that was originally posted by Russia’s Matryoshka disinformation network, according to the independent outlets Agentstvo and Holod, and the tracking project Bot Blocker. (Meduza, 02.06.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told Putin during a Feb. 7 meeting that Russia’s GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024, which he said, was 0.2 percentage points more than earlier estimated. Mishustin also claimed the revised data shows Russia’s GDP also grew by 4.1%  in 2023. (RM, 02.07.25)
• Russia's services sector saw its fastest growth in a year in January, buoyed by a sharp increase in new business, a survey showed on Feb. 5. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for Russian services rose to 54.6 in January from 51.2 in December. (Reuters, 02.05.25)
• Russians bought a record amount of gold last year as they sought to protect their savings amid sanctions, obtaining the equivalent of about a fourth of the country’s annual output. Consumers purchased 75.6 metric tons (2.7 million ounces) of the yellow metal in bullion, coins and jewelry in 2024; the fifth biggest figure among all nations, according to World Gold Council data published Feb. 5. That’s an increase of 6% on the previous year and more than 60% since Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine almost three years ago. (Bloomberg, 02.05.25)
• The Russian Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates to their highest level in two decades has so far failed to slow rising inflation, the regulator acknowledged in a bulletin published Feb. 5. The Central Bank raised its key rate to a record-high 21% in October 2024 as inflation, sanctions pressure, and record defense spending for the war in Ukraine put the economy at risk of overheating. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
  • On Feb. 7, Putin acknowledged that inflation remains a major “challenge” for the country’s economy and ordered the government to work on lowering it in 2025. Consumer prices in Russia rose by 9.5% in 2024 and have climbed further to 9.9% year-on-year this month, Putin said during a televised meeting at the Kremlin with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin who, in his turn, told the Russian president that the economy grew by 4.1% in 2024. That was the same as the pace of growth in 2023, he said, revising up the previous figure of 3.6% growth for that year. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
  • As of January, the Russian economy has crossed the threshold of double-digit inflation, with price growth reaching 10% by the end of the month. Adjusted for seasonal factors, December's inflation translates to an annualized rate of 14%, while January's stands at 13%. Surveys indicate that the public also expects inflation to reach 14% for the year, while businesses are incorporating an average price increase of 11% into their financial plans. (Re: Russia, 01.31.25)
  • Depositing money in high-yielding bank accounts is back as Russians’ favorite place to store wealth to protect their life savings against the ravages of high inflation rates. Total deposits were up by 70% in 2024 as the population (and companies) took advantage of the Central Bank’s historically high interest rates, currently at 21%, and the extraordinary spread of 11% of real interest rates—as inflation, albeit high, is still only around 10%. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
  • The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting—which has deep connections to Defense Minister Andrei Belousov—has predicted a wave of bankruptcies if high interest rates stay in place. (Bell, 02.06.25)
  • According to Levada's newly-released poll, the most pressing problem of Russian society in January 2025 was rising prices. Almost two-thirds of respondents said so. Also among the troubling problems named were: (1) a special military operation, conflict with the West, sanctions (35%), housing problems—emergency condition, inaccessibility, expensive mortgages—(30%), corruption, bribery (29%), an influx of newcomers, migrants (26%), an increase in the retirement age, pension reform (26%). (RM, 06.07.25)
• Only 10% of relocators who left Russia in 2022–2023 returned back, according to research from the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the RANEPA, Vedomosti reports. Scientists conducted an online sociological survey among 3,459 people who left Russia in 2022–2023 "after the start of the special operation" and were abroad for at least three months in a row. More than a quarter of respondents who returned to Russia (26.7% of respondents) moved to other countries during their emigration. Almost half of them (46.8%) did so two or more times. (Istories, 02.07.25)
• Three years into the war with Ukraine, Russia’s wealthiest are increasingly bringing their money home. The influx of cash is helping Moscow buck a slowdown hitting other real estate markets from London to Hong Kong. Luxury apartment sales priced at 1.95 million rubles ($19,813) a square meter and upwards in Moscow gained almost 40% last year, according to NF Group, formerly known as Knight Frank Russia. And prices increased 21%, pushing the Russian capitol squarely into the same price tier as Paris and London. Overall, demand among wealthy Russians for foreign real estate fell 24% last year compared with 2023, according to Intermark. (Bloomberg, 02.03.25)
• Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, around 200 companies in Russia have faced the threat of nationalization, with only a few avoiding state takeover. Recent cases include the freezing of assets belonging to billionaire Dmitry Kamenshchik, owner of Domodedovo Airport, and the transfer of Raven Russia’s assets to the state. Prosecutors have used various legal arguments to justify the seizures, often targeting businesses with ties to foreign entities. (Meduza, 02.05.25)
• The Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation has filed a lawsuit against the oilfield services company Borets, according to the case file on the website of the Arbitration Court of the Kaliningrad Region. Prosecutors allege that the company is controlled by self-exiled businessman Leonid Nevzlin. (Meduza, 02.06.25)
• A well-known St. Petersburg musician fell to his death from the window of his 10th-floor apartment during police searches over his alleged donations to the Ukrainian military, media reported Feb. 6. Vadim Stroykin faced up to 20 years in prison if charged and convicted of participating in a terrorist organization for his alleged support of the Ukrainian army. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• A Russian court sentenced six more people to prison over their participation in mass protests in the republic of Bashkortostan last year, the rights group OVD-Info said Feb. 7, citing one of the defendant’s lawyers. Nearly 80 people have been convicted or are currently facing trial for protests in the town of Baymak in January 2024, against the jailing of Fail Alsynov, a prominent local activist. (MT/AFP, 02.07.25)
• Russian scientists have detected dangerously high levels of a carcinogen in soil samples taken from beaches contaminated by the Black Sea oil spill, with one expert comparing the pollution to the U.S. military’s use of Agent Orange during the Vietnam War (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) may soon gain regulatory authority over international scientific cooperation under newly proposed legislation. (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)
• In a Feb. 6 survey of Russian public opinion on the question of ‘the possibility of social and economic upheavals in 2025,’ Russians’ expectations for the coming year are not very optimistic. Four out of ten respondents (42%) believe that an economic crisis is possible in 2025 (up 10% from this time last year). Every third admits the possibility of armed conflict with the United States/NATO countries (34%); mass clashes/outbreaks of violence on national soil (33%); [and] mass unrest and protests of the population (30%). These last three measures remain virtually unchanged from this time last year. (Levada Center, 02.06.25). Machine translated.
• Russia had 1,990 adult stores in January, a 7.8% decrease from the same month last year. At least 12 of the country’s 16 cities with populations over 1 million saw notable sex shop closures, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Yury Borisov as the head of Roscosmos, the country's space agency. A presidential decree announced the decision, with Dmitry Bakanov, former Deputy Minister of Transport, appointed as Borisov's replacement. Borisov had assumed leadership of Roscosmos in July 2022, succeeding Dmitry Rogozin. Putin appointed Deputy Minister of Transport Dmitry Bakanov to replace Borisov (Meduza, 02.06.25, ISW, 02.06.25)
• Military recruitment in Moscow has dropped fivefold since its peak in mid-2024, forcing Russian authorities to rely increasingly on foreign mercenaries, criminals and debtors to bolster troop numbers, the independent news outlet Vyorstka has reported. (MT/AFP, 02.03.25)
• The Russian Defense Ministry is seeking to make it more difficult for conscripts to secure medical exemptions from military service, including those diagnosed with syphilis, high blood pressure, and severe mental disorders. (RFE/RL, 02.07.25)
• Russian courts received a record 20,040 petitions to declare individuals missing or dead last year, the independent news website Mediazona reported Feb. 3, citing court documents. The figure is more than double the approximate 8,600 court filings in 2023, which Mediazona said was in line with annual numbers before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Some court rulings reviewed by Mediazona suggest army commanders sought to declare soldiers missing or dead in order to remove them from unit rosters and accelerate recruitment. (MT/AFP, 02.03.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• An explosion that ripped through a residential complex lobby in northeastern Moscow early on Feb. 3 killed a pro-Kremlin paramilitary leader from eastern Ukraine, state media reported, citing medical and law enforcement authorities. Armen Sarkisyan, founder of the irregular Arbat Battalion, died after being hospitalized in critical condition, The explosion may have been a suicide attack, (MT/AFP, 02.03.25, MT/AFP, 02.04.25)

• The European Court of Human Rights on Feb. 4 ruled that Russia violated the free speech rights of six nationals who operated websites supporting and advising LGBTQ people. (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• A deputy Russian foreign minister met Feb. 3 with a senior Hamas official in Moscow and urged Hamas to keep "promises" to release a Russian hostage, the ministry said. Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also President Vladimir Putin's special envoy on the Middle East, met with Musa Abu Marzuk, a senior member of Hamas' political bureau. (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)
• In Germany, individuals allegedly hired by Russia damaged more than 270 cars using construction foam, leaving stickers of the Green Party at the scenes. The campaign, aimed at sowing discord and discrediting the Greens, was reportedly orchestrated through messaging apps and social media. Similar operations have been documented in France and the U.K., with Russian-linked actors targeting European societies. (iStories, 02.05.25)
• Switzerland is returning CHF$14 million ($15.46 million) in frozen assets to three sanctioned Russian nationals implicated in a corruption case uncovered by the late tax advisor Sergei Magnitsky, Hermitage Capital Management has said. A Jan. 21 Swiss Supreme Court ruling withdrew Hermitage Capital's private claimant status in a money laundering case filed against Dmitry Klyuev, Vladlen Stepanov and Olga Stepanova, allowing their blocked assets to be unfrozen and accessed. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)

Ukraine:

• Amid a military manpower shortage that is hampering Ukraine’s efforts to stave off Russia’s grinding invasion in the east, the country is also grappling with a critical lack of workers in vital industrial sectors, such as energy, defense, and construction. (RFE/RL, 02.02.25)
• Ukraine’s dollar bonds climbed for a fifth day, hitting new highs amid rising expectations that details of a war-ending deal will emerge next week. The country’s debt rallied across all maturities with 2034 notes topping 60 cents on the dollar—the strongest since they were issued last year. (Bloomberg, 02.06.25)
• The High Anti-Corruption Court has chosen a preventive measure for the deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration Petro Olenych. He was arrested with the possibility of posting bail in the amount of 15 million hryvnia. On Feb. 6, Ukrainian law-enforcers reported that they had exposed a corruption scheme in the Kyiv City Council. (RBC,ua, 02.07.25)
• A sociological survey, Corruption in Ukraine 2024: Understanding, Perception, Prevalence, conducted by Info Sapiens on behalf of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) revealed that 57.9% of respondents from the public and 58.8% from business expressed a negative attitude toward corrupt behavior. (Nazk.gov.ua, 03.02.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russian civil aviation authorities said Feb. 5 that they have not been granted access to the “foreign objects” that damaged an Azerbaijani jet before it crashed in Kazakhstan last month. Kazakhstan’s Transportation Ministry on Feb. 4 published preliminary findings of its investigation into the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. Investigators released photos of what they said were “foreign metal objects” recovered from the wreckage. (MT/AFP, 02.05.25)
• Azerbaijani authorities ordered the closure of the local branch of Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian state-funded cultural diplomacy agency. Baku also ordered the closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) on Feb. 6 due to “the lack of legal basis” for its operations in the country. (MT/AFP, 02.06.25)
• The EU will provide 250 million euros ($258 million) to Moldova this year to bolster energy security following Russia's decision to cut off gas supplies, officials said Feb. 4. (MT/AFP, 02.04.25)
• The Kremlin announced on Feb. 6 that it’s resuming aid to Abkhazia in numerous areas after presidential candidate Badra Gunba visited Moscow and pledged to revise an investment agreement with Russia that sparked a local political crisis last year. (Meduza, 02.07.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “I believe this terrible [Russian-Ukrainian] war will soon come to an end. In fact, I would bet that we will have a ceasefire within the next six months… with the help of a powerful partner: China.” Graham Allison told Der Spiegel. “[I foresee] an end to the war on the battlefield in the form of a pause in fighting and possibly even a formal armistice,” he said. (Der Spiegel, 02.04.25)⁶ 
• “Whether Vladimir Putin attacks Latvia, Poland, or Germany next isn’t really determined by how the war in Ukraine ends. What deters Putin is the deterrent posture of other states. Deterrence is the product of capability multiplied by credibility. If Europeans and Americans in NATO expand their military capabilities—and if the promise to respond to an attack on one state as if it were an attack on all is credible—then, in my opinion, the probability that Putin will invade a NATO country is nearly zero,” Graham Allison told Der Spiegel. (Der Spiegel, 02.04.25.) 
• “I think that both sides [Russia and the new government of Syria] benefit from delaying the negotiations on the fate of the bases,” said Anton Mardasov, a Russian military affairs expert focusing on Syria. “Moscow can thus preserve its image, since it has already managed to hold out as long as possible and not leave immediately after the fall of the Assad regime, and Damascus can for now negotiate the lifting of sanctions.” (NYT, 02.02.25)

V. Useful tables and charts

Of all realms pre-selected by Levada for measurement of change its latest poll, Russians saw the greatest deterioration in Russia’s relations with the West, the greatest improvement in Russia’s position on the international stage and the least change in their ability to influence how they are being governed: 

Levada poll: How has the situation changed over the course of 2024?
(in % of respondents, January 2025)

Discussion: Levada has just released results of its Jan. 23–29 poll of Russians in which it asked how the situation changed over time in a number of realms in the course of 2024. 

When it comes to deterioration of the situation, it is Russia’s relations with West and NATO that Russians, predictably, found to be most dramatic. As many as 69% said these relations worsened in 2024. The second and third greatest deterioration occurred in the state of the environment (45%), and between people of different ethnic groups/nationalities (39%). 

Interestingly, in spite of the Russian official statistics showing that Russians’ real incomes grew by 8.5% in 2024, some 38% of respondents of the Levada poll said the living standards of the majority of Russia's population worsened in 2024 (the 4^th greatest deterioration on record), while only 18% thought it improved. Another 30% said the opportunity to earn a decent income worsened in Russia in 2024.

According to the poll, the domain in which Russians saw greatest improvement in 2024 was ‘Russia’s position on the international stage.’ That said, the gap between the share of Russians who thought Russia’s position on the international stage improved in 2024 (33%) and those who thought Russia’s position on the international stage worsened that year was rather slim: 4 percentage points. 

The second and third greatest improvements were registered in the domains of’ activities of mass media’ (25%) and ‘the opportunity to earn a good wage’ (23%). Interestingly, as stated above, more Russians thought the opportunity to earn a good wage deteriorated (30%) than improved (23%). 

It is also instructive to learn in which domain Russians saw the least change. As many as 59% thought the level of influence of ordinary people on government affairs did not change. 51% thought activities of television, radio, and print media did not change and 49% found that the ability to express opinions did not change.

Footnotes

1. The lower and more powerful chamber of the Russian parliament.
2. For Kellogg’s views on what will be required of Russia and Ukraine to end the war, see a 2024 report he co-authored and RM’s compilation of his views.
3. “I believe this terrible [Russian-Ukrainian] war will soon come to an end. In fact, I would bet that we will have a ceasefire within the next six months ... with the help of a powerful partner: China,” Graham Allison toldDer Spiegel.
4. This was also reported by NYT on 01.30.25.
5. For "Fighting the War in Ukraine on the Electromagnetic Spectrum,” see The Economist, 02.05.25. For "The Added Dangers of Fighting in Ukraine When Everything Is Visible," see The Economist, 02.06.25. 
6. In preparation for next week’s Munich Security Conference—the national security community’s equivalent of Davos—the German newspaper Der Spiegel interviewed Graham Allison about a number of the major issues that will be debated there. The interview has been translated from German by ChatGPT so that parts of it could be summarized by RM staff.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.