I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• An international meeting of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) took place in New Delhi, India this week. The meeting was aimed at preventing weapons of mass destruction and related materials from falling into the hands of terrorists. Ratification of international treaties relevant to nuclear security and radioactive source security were among the key issues discussed. “Nuclear security will be a continuing concern, especially as terrorist groups and non-state actors strike deeper roots and explore different avenues to spread terror,” India’s Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the meeting. Japan, which has actively engaged in discussions on the technical aspects of nuclear forensics and on improving security in the transport of nuclear materials, will in June host the GICNT's annual plenary, co-chaired by the United States and Russia. (Press Trust of India, 02.10.17, Kyodo News, 02.08.17, Indian Express, 02.08.17)
• The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) needs to do a better job tracking the results of its research and development projects, which make "vital contributions to national security," the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found in a new report. GAO auditors found that the NNSA was not able to track the advanced, transitioned or deployed status of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation research and development, as well as nonproliferation and arms control projects. (Inside Defense, 02.09.17, ExecutiveGov, 02.07.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• The Trump administration is exploring ways to break Russia's military and diplomatic alliance with Iran in a bid to both end the Syrian conflict and bolster the fight against Islamic State, said senior administration, European and Arab officials involved in the policy discussions. "If there's a wedge to be driven between Russia and Iran, we're willing to explore that," a senior U.S. administration official said. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.17)
• The Kremlin said on Feb. 6 it did not agree with U.S. President Donald Trump's assessment of Iran as "the number one terrorist state" and wanted to deepen what it described as already good ties with Tehran. However, Sergei Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to Washington, was quoted by RIA Novosti on Feb. 10 as saying that Russia does not have substantial differences with the United States over the Iran nuclear deal. (Reuters, 02.06.17, Reuters, 02.10.17)
• In a report released Feb. 3, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, cautioned that even if Moscow were to distance itself from Tehran, it wouldn't contain the enormous influence that Iran wields over Syria's economic, military and political institutions. "Any U.S. effort to subvert Iran's posture in Syria through Russia will undoubtedly end in failure," the assessment said. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.17)
• In their first meeting, the European Union's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson spoke "at length" about terrorism, Russia, the Iran nuclear deal and Ukraine, the EU said in a statement. (Reuters, 02.09.17)
• The morning that the Iran sanctions were announced in Washington, National Security Adviser Michael Flynn said he personally notified counterparts in Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, Israel and Saudi Arabia. (The Washington Post, 02.08.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to meet the leaders of NATO at a summit in late May. Trump said the United States "strongly" backs NATO, but that members of the military alliance must earmark more money for defense spending. (AP, 02.06.17, RFE/RL, 02.06.17)
• More than 1,000 NATO soldiers being stationed in Lithuania sends a clear signal that the alliance stands “strong and united” in the Baltics in the face of Russian aggression, the Lithuanian president said Feb. 7. (AP, 02.07.17)
• Montenegro’s main opposition party said Feb. 6 that it would organize a referendum on the country’s membership in NATO—with the support of Russia—if the ruling pro-Western majority keeps insisting the decision should be made in parliament. (AP, 02.06.17)
• The Baltic States will press the United States and NATO to take additional security measures in the region ahead of a large Russian military exercise planned for September, Lithuania's president said on Feb. 9. Russia announced last September its plans to stage the Zapad 2017 exercise near its western borders, but has not said how many troops will take part. (Reuters, 02.09.17)

Missile defense:

• The U.S. has activated a land-based missile defense station in Romania which will form part of a larger and controversial European shield. Senior U.S. and NATO officials attended the ceremony in Deveselu in southern Romania. The U.S. says the Aegis system is a shield to protect NATO countries from short and medium-range missiles, particularly from the Middle East. But Russia sees it as a security threat. Russian Foreign Ministry official Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko says Moscow views Romania as a NATO outpost and a "clear threat" because it hosts part of a U.S. missile shield in Europe. (RFE/RL, 02.09.17, BBC, 02.09.17)
• Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak told Russian media in Washington that he sees little chance for a compromise on missile defense, as Moscow believes the U.S. wants to develop the shield against Russia despite assurances that it’s directed against other threats. (AP, 02.09.17)
• House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry told reporters at a press briefing Feb. 6 the United States should expand its missile defense capabilities and build up its nuclear arsenal because of missile threats posed by Iran and North Korea. (Daily Caller, 02.06.17)
• The Missile Defense Agency recently announced the completion of the first intercept test for the Aegis SM-3 Block IIA interceptor. The test was designated SFTM-1 (SM-3 Cooperative Development (SCD) Project Flight Test Standard Missile).  In two previous flight tests, no intercept was attempted. The test took place at about 10:30 pm Hawaii Standard Time on Feb. 3. (Mostlymissiledefense, 02.07.17)

Nuclear arms control:

• In his first call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin since the inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump denounced the New START treaty, according to two U.S. officials and one former U.S. official with knowledge of the call. When Putin raised the possibility of extending the 2010 treaty, Trump paused to ask his aides in an aside what the treaty was and then told Putin the treaty was one of several bad deals negotiated by the Obama administration, saying that New START favored Russia. White House spokesman Sean Spicer said Trump knew what the New START treaty is, but had turned to his aides for an opinion during the call with Putin. He said the notes from the call would not have conveyed that. Trump did not receive a briefing from Russia experts with the National Security Council and intelligence agencies before the Putin call. The platform of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Republican Party had promised to “abandon arms control treaties that benefit our adversaries without improving our national security” and called for the development of “a multi-layered missile defense system.” (AP, 02.09.17, Reuters, 02.09.17)
• The possibility of extending a pivotal Russia-U.S. arms control pact, the New START treaty, is to be discussed in prospective talks with Washington. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, wouldn’t say whether the Kremlin favors extending the 2010 pact. (AP, 02.09.17)
• The White House is probing ongoing leaks of U.S. President Donald Trump’s private conversations with foreign leaders, including a Feb. 9 report that he criticized the New START treaty during last month’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The Washington Post, 02.09.17)

Counter-terrorism:

• “I say it’s better to get along with Russia than not, and if Russia helps us in the fight against ISIS—which is a major fight—and the Islamic terrorism all over the world, that’s a good thing,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News host Bill O’Reilly. “Will I get along with him? I have no idea.” (The Moscow Times, 02.06.17)
• German authorities have arrested a Russian national accused of undergoing military training in Syria with the Islamic State group. Federal prosecutors said the 19-year-old man, identified only as Suleym K. in keeping with German privacy rules, was arrested in the Cologne area on Feb. 7. He is accused of membership in a terrorist organization. (AP, 02.08.17)

Conflict in Syria:

• Turkey and Russia have pledged to boost cooperation in Syria after the deaths of three Turkish soldiers by Russian friendly fire. A Russian warplane struck Turkish positions near al-Bab in northern Syria the morning of Feb. 9, killing three men and injuring 11 more. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin called Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan shortly after the event to apologize for the “tragic accident” and to express his condolences. The strike was launched based on coordinates provided by the Turkish military to Russia, Peskov said. However, the Turkish military insisted the troops had been at the building for 10 days and that Russia had been advised of their position on Feb. 8. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.17, Reuters, 02.10.17, BBC, 02.10.17)
• At least 30 people died in air strikes on the rebel-held Syrian city of Idlib on Feb. 7, in some of the heaviest raids there in months, witnesses and rescue workers said. Around eight attacks were carried out by what witnesses believed to be Russian jets. Russia's Defense Ministry later said media reports that its planes had bombed Idlib were not true, Interfax news agency reported. (Reuters, 02.07.17)
• The Syrian civil war’s January toll—some 2,000 dead, about a third of them civilians, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group—is the lowest it has been in four years. (AP, 02.09.17)
• Thousands of people have been hanged at a Syrian prison in a secret crackdown on dissent by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a report by Amnesty International alleges. The human rights group says as many as 13,000 people have been executed at Saydnaya prison, north of the capital Damascus in a "hidden" campaign authorized by senior regime figures. (CNN, 02.07.17)
• The Russian Embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus was shelled on Feb. 2 to Feb. 3, but no one was hurt, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (RFE/RL, 02.04.17)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry denied media reports of five servicemen being killed in Syria. The Al Jazeera television channel’s report on the death of Russian military in Syria is false, and all Russian servicemen in Syria are well, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said on Feb. 5. (TASS, 02.05.17)
• Russia intervened to halt a clash between Syrian government forces and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels in northern Syria, sources on both sides said on Feb. 10, the first confrontation between them as both sides fight Islamic State in the area. (Reuters, 02.10.17)
• The Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier’s deployment to the Mediterranean Sea off the shores of Syria has cost Russia more than $125 million, according to Russia’s RBC news agency. (Russia Matters, 02.08.17)
• Russia has just sent Syria the largest shipment of missiles between the two countries to date. This is the latest delivery between the two allies that could further change the stakes in the Middle East, U.S. officials told Fox News on Feb. 8. The SS-21 missile, which comes in different types, has a range of roughly 100 miles. (Fox News, 02.08.17)
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that U.S-Russian cooperation in stepping up the fight against the militants would have positive repercussions. He also said that U.S. President Donald Trump prioritizing the fight against jihadists led by Islamic State was promising, although it was too early to expect any practical steps. He also said his family did not "own" the country they have run for 46 years, saying he would step aside if the Syrian people choose another leader in an election. In separate comments made on Feb. 10, Assad said the United States is welcome to join the battle against “terrorists” in Syria—as long as it is in cooperation with his government and respects the country’s sovereignty. (Reuters, 02.07.17, Reuters, 02.08.17, AP, 02.10.17)
• Russia said on Feb. 5 that it supports the continuation of Syria peace talks under United Nations auspices. The long-running negotiations had been thrown into doubt by separate, Moscow-backed peace talks launched last month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that Russian and U.S. diplomats continue to meet to discuss Syria in Switzerland’s Geneva. (Reuters, 02.05.17, TASS, 02.07.17)

Cyber security:

• The United States government wants to hold a meeting with high-ranking representatives of the Russian government on cyber issues, Michele G. Markoff Deputy Coordinator for Cyber Issues at the U.S. Department of States told RIA Novosti. (Russia Matters, 02.07.17)
• Russian cyber security experts have scaled back cooperation with Western contacts after one of their number was arrested in Moscow on treason charges, making it harder to fight global online crime, U.S. law-enforcement and industry sources say. “This sends a shiver down everybody’s spine,” said a senior U.S. law enforcement official. “We were getting some headway over there,” with arrests last year of suspects accused of using sophisticated software programs to steal from bank accounts in multiple countries, the official said. (Reuters, 02.08.17)
• Estonia has teamed up with the U.S. Secret Service ahead of its first European Union presidency to train local officials to handle cyber threats—the greatest of which comes from Russia, according to the nation’s foreign intelligence service. (AP, 02.08.17)
• “I’m no friend of the Russians,” said Michael Schmitt, chairman of the U.S. Naval War College’s International Law Department and director of a project that analyzes how international law applies to cyber operations—especially in peacetime. But Moscow’s hacking and dumping of Democratic emails to WikiLeaks “is not an initiation of armed conflict. It’s not a violation of the U.N. Charter’s prohibition on the use of force. It’s not a situation that would allow the U.S. to respond in self-defense militarily.” (The Washington Post, 02.07.17)
• Britain's defense minister Michael Fallon said Kremlin-backed media, including RT and Sputnik, are now spreading "Soviet-style misinformation," while NATO estimates that "threatening cyberattacks" against the military alliance's digital infrastructure increased 60% last year over 2015. (RFE/RL, 02.04.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

• No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

• A newly-released report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) forecasts that Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 90% between 2016 and 2050, if measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) in constant 2016 dollars. However, the cumulative rate of growth of Russia’s GDP in 2016-2050 (90%) will lag behind the world GDP’s rate of the growth (148%) in 2016-2050. Therefore, Russia’s share in the world’s GDP will decline in that period. According to PWC, China will remain the world's largest economy in terms of PPP in 2050, while the U.S. will go down in the ranking of the world's largest economies from second to third place, with India forecast to come in second. (Russia Matters, 02.07.17)

Other bilateral issues:

• In an interview with Fox News host Bill O’Reilly, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he respects Russian President Vladimir Putin. O’Reilly challenged Trump's characterization, calling Putin a killer. The president appeared unperturbed by the remarks, replying, "There are a lot of killers. We've got a lot of killers. What do you think, our country's so innocent?" (The Moscow Times, 02.06.17)
  • Trump’s statement that the U.S. is no more “innocent” than Putin’s Russia drew howls from Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Feb. 5, while U.S. Vice President Mike Pence rejected the notion that Trump had been attempting to make a moral equivalence. “What you’re hearing there is a determination by the president of the United States to not let semantics or the arguments of the past get in the way of exploring the ability to work together with Russia,” Pence said. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell labeled Putin “a thug.”  Republican Sen. Marco Rubio also hit back. (Bloomberg, 02.05.17)
  • The Kremlin has demanded an apology from O’Reilly for calling Putin “a killer.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the outburst “unacceptable and offensive.” (The Moscow Times, 02.06.17)
• U.S. President Donald Trump says it's no fair "the haters" tie him to Russian President Vladimir Putin when former U.S. President Barack Obama was the one who struck a deal with Iran. Trump tweeted Feb. 6: "I don't know Putin, have no deals in Russia and the haters are going crazy—yet Obama can make a deal with Iran, #1 in terror, no problem!" (AP, 02.07.17)
• In his first call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin since the inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump talked about his own popularity. (Reuters, 02.09.17)
• Current and former U.S. officials said that national security adviser Michael Flynn privately discussed U.S. sanctions against Russia with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., Sergei Kislyak, during the month before U.S. President Donald Trump took office, contrary to public assertions by Trump officials. Flynn on Feb. 8 denied that he had discussed sanctions with Kislyak. Asked in an interview whether he had ever done so, he twice said, “No.” On Feb. 9, Flynn, through his spokesman, backed away from the denial. (The Washington Post, 02.09.17)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied a report by the Washington Post claiming that retired general Michael Flynn, now U.S. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, had discussed a possible review of anti-Russian sanctions with the Russian ambassador to Washington in December. Peskov said Ambassador Sergei Kislyak did talk to Flynn, but the rest of the report was wrong. (AP, 02.09.17)
• U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said U.S. President Donald Trump's national security advisor, Michael Flynn, should be fired if he warned Russian officials about the details of U.S. sanctions against the country related to their attempts to influence the 2016 election. (Los Angeles Times, 02.10.17)
• A senior U.S. administration official said the White House doesn't have any illusions about Russia or see Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "choir boy," despite further conciliatory statements from U.S. President Donald Trump about the Russian leader over the weekend. But the official said that the administration doesn't view Russia as the same existential threat that the Soviet Union posed to the U.S. during the Cold War. (Wall Street Journal, 02.05.17)
• An adviser to U.S. national security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Foreign Policy that U.S. President Donald Trump’s top advisers, notably White House strategist Steve Bannon and national security advisor Michael Flynn, see Russia as a potential partner. It’s “not that they’re Russia lovers. They have a view that in the scheme of things, Russia is not the real problem. We need to rethink how we work with Russia, and in the end Russia can actually be—at times—a partner to deal with real problems like China and radical Islam,” the official said. (Foreign Policy, 02.08.17)
• While U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend a G7 summit in Italy in May, one of the key things to watch for is how Mike Pence describes the U.S.-Russia relationship when he attends the Munich security conference next week. (Financial Times, 02.09.17)
• House Speaker Paul Ryan believes U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to mend relations with Russia is understandable yet doomed to fail. "What the President is trying to do is not unlike what the past two presidents did with Russia. I just don't think it's going to work," Ryan told PBS in an interview aired Feb. 8. (CNN, 02.08.17)
• Moscow is preparing to replace its ambassador to the U.S., and according to media reports, the Kremlin is considering a diplomat specializing in military affairs for the post. Anatoly Antonov, a career diplomat who until December served for five years as a deputy defense minister, is widely believed to be the main candidate for the post. (RBTH/Kommersant, 02.06.17)
• Russia has reiterated its opposition to the use of sanctions in international affairs, saying they are "rather destructive and harmful to both sides.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the comment on Feb. 9, after a group of U.S. senators introduced legislation that would make it harder for U.S. President Donald Trump to lift sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in Ukraine, if he seeks to do so. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) says the Russia Sanctions Review Act gives Congress the opportunity to act if it disagrees with Trump’s Russia policies. However, the new bill may never make it to the floor. Two key Republicans are noticeably absent from its list of supporters: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) (RFE/RL, 02.09.17, AP, 02.08.17, The Washington Post, 02.08.17)
• "It is no secret that on a whole range of questions of international and regional policy, the positions of Moscow and Washington are diametrically different," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Feb. 6, Russian news agencies reported. "But that can't and shouldn't be a hindrance for establishing normal communications and pragmatic mutual relations between Russia and the U.S." (Wall Street Journal, 02.06.17)
• Russian tech executive Aleksey Gubarev, whose name appeared in an unsubstantiated intelligence dossier on U.S. President Donald Trump, has filed defamation lawsuits against BuzzFeed, which published the dossier online, and the former British intelligence officer who is believed to have compiled it. (Wall Street Journal, 02.03.17)
• U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty launched a new 24-hour Russian-language channel on Feb. 7 to offer Russian speakers living at home and abroad a new alternative to government-run media. (Reuters, 02.07.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• Citing sources close to the presidential administration, Russian media group RBK reports that the Kremlin has given up on the idea of looking for a “fresh face” to represent the opposition in the 2018 elections. Instead, it will rely on members of the old guard: Gennady Zyuganov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Sergei Mironov, who are leaders of the parliamentary opposition. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.17)
• The Kremlin is launching a major political reshuffle among the country's top regional officials, Russian media reports. Five regional governors are expected leave their posts in the bid to strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin's position before the 2018 presidential elections. Putin has already accepted the resignation of Viktor Basargin as Governor of the Perm Territory, and Maxim Reshetnikov has been appointed acting head of the region. On Feb. 7, Head of the Republic of Buryatia Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn told journalists that he would not qualify for a third term and will soon appeal to Putin with a request for early resignation. (The Moscow Times, 02.03.17, TASS, 02.06.17, En.crimerussia.com, 02.10.17)
• Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny has been given a five-year suspended prison sentence after being found guilty of embezzlement. The decision jeopardizes his hopes of running for the Russian presidency in 2018, when Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to seek his fourth term in office. The European Union has criticized the trial of Navalny for being politically motivated. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.17, The Moscow Times, 02.09.17)
• Independent Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy faces closure within five days if it doesn’t comply with demands from Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor to provide documents proving its compliance with Russian ownership laws. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.17)
• Russia saw a net capital outflow of $2.2 billion in the first month of 2017, Russia’s central bank said on Feb. 9. (Reuters, 02.09.17)
• A third of the 15 best-performing funds in the world in 2016 were specialist funds investing in Russia equities, according to data provider Morningstar. In emerging market funds that hold Russian stocks, allocations to the country have jumped from 6.91% at the end of 2014 to 9.61% in December 2016, according to data from Morningstar. (Financial Times, 02.05.17)
• Russia's Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has named the state the biggest threat to healthy competition in the Russian economy. The agency is now asking Russian President Vladimir Putin to sign a presidential decree reducing the government's role in key economic sectors over the next two years, the Vedomosti newspaper reported Feb. 8. (The Moscow Times, 02.08.17)
• Russia's top children's goods retailer held the first major initial public offering in the country since the annexation of Crimea, the owners of Russia’s PAO Detsky Mir raised $355 million in the sale on Feb. 8. (Wall Street Journal, 02.08.17)
• Russia has increased government spending on the 2018 World Cup by 19.1 billion rubles ($325 million) without explanation. (AP, 02.06.17)
• Fifty-four percent of Russians between the ages of 25 and 64 have university degrees, according to Russia’s Institute of Education of the Higher School of Economics. (RBTH, 02.08.17)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia will soon fill in gaps in its Arctic radar coverage by deploying state-of-the-art over-the-horizon radars, Konteiner and Podsolnukh, Gazeta.ru reports. These systems will establish a radar field 900 to 1,200 miles beyond the country’s borders, providing protection against surprise aerial and sea-surface attacks. (RBTH, 02.10.17)
• The Russian military has deployed its S-300 and S-400 air defense systems around Moscow as part of massive drills to practice response to an air attack. Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin told foreign military attaches that the maneuvers launched Feb. 7 involve 45,000 troops, about 150 aircraft and 200 air defense missile systems. (AP, 02.08.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The wife of Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr., who was hospitalized last week after a sudden illness, said on Feb. 7 her husband was poisoned. Kara-Murza’s lawyer Vadim Prokhorov said in a Facebook post later on Feb. 7 that the police had confirmed the diagnosis as poisoning by an unidentified substance. Kara-Murza suffered similar symptoms in 2015 and later said he had been poisoned. Following that incident, a French laboratory found elevated levels of heavy metals in his blood, but was unable to pinpoint any specific poison. (New York Times, 02.06.17, Bloomberg, 02.07.17)
• Every year some five percent of Russians fall victim to crimes, but the police force “refuses to recognize” and therefore fails to investigate roughly half of the 3 to 4 million crimes committed in the country annually, Russian researcher Kirill Titayev told Novaya Gazeta. (Russia Matters, 02.07.17)
• A man has been fined 70,000 rubles ($1,180) by a Russian court after failing to tell police that his friend had joined a terrorist group. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China in May for a summit, and also plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Jinping also plans to visit Moscow in midyear, Russian Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov said Feb. 9. (Reuters, 02.08.17, TASS, 02.09.17)
• France’s spy agency believes Russia intends to try to influence France’s upcoming elections in favor of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. On Feb. 8, Le Canard Enchaîné said that France’s Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) believes that Russia will help Le Pen by way of bots that will flood the internet with millions of positive posts about Le Pen—and by publishing her opponents’ confidential emails. (Foreign Policy, 02.08.17)
• A year-long investigation found no direct proof that Russian media outlets were running a deliberate disinformation campaign in Germany, an unnamed source told Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. The source maintained that while officials still hadn’t “found the smoking gun,” they had found certain warning signs. “We would have liked to have raised the yellow card,” the source said. (The Moscow Times, 02.07.17)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met Volkswagen Chief Executive Matthias Mueller in Moscow and said he was ready to help the German car giant develop its business in Russia. Volkswagen said in a statement it was committed to the Russian market, where it said it provided 6,800 direct and 50,000 indirect jobs. (Reuters, 02.08.17)
• Witold Waszczykowski, Poland’s foreign minister, said Feb. 9 that it is a priority for his country to strengthen cooperation between the U.S. and Europe in the area of security and that he is concerned about the “aggressive policies of Russia in Eastern Europe.” (AP, 02.09.17)
• Gen. John Nicholson, top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, says Moscow has been publicly legitimizing the Taliban by asserting its militants are fighting Islamic terrorists while the Afghan government is not. The general says this is a “false narrative.” (AP, 02.09.17)
• Moscow is ready to renew cooperation with the United States and other NATO powers to reach mutual goals in Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, a Russian Foreign Ministry official, said in an interview with the state TASS agency published on Feb. 9. (Reuters, 02.09.17)
• European diplomats are attempting a last-ditch effort to dissuade Russia from helping the renegade military strongman Khalifa Haftar seize overall military power in Libya. (The Guardian, 02.09.17)
• Seven Russian sailors and a Ukrainian have been kidnapped from a cargo ship in Nigerian waters, the Russian embassy in the West African nation said Feb. 8. (AP, 02.08.17)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry has accused Western journalists of lying about the censorship and harassment they reportedly face from Russian authorities. (The Moscow Times, 02.03.17)

Ukraine:

• A week-long surge in violence in and around the government-held town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine appeared to be winding down early this week, as schools reopened and power and water supplies resumed following the worst clashes in months. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors said fighting in eastern Ukraine has abated, but the warring sides have kept heavy weapons near the front line. Over 40 people were killed in government- and separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine in last week's escalation of fighting, adding to the close to 10,000 killed since the conflict erupted in April 2014. (Reuters, 02.06.17, AP, 02.06.17)
• Russia warned against a further escalation of the situation in war-torn eastern Ukraine as the government in Kiev and separatists traded blame for the killing of a rebel commander. Mikhail Tolstykh, a Donetsk rebel commander known as “Givi,” was killed at his headquarters on the morning of Feb. 8 with a portable flamethrower. Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have also earlier said that one of their top commanders, Oleg Anashchenko, was killed when his car exploded early on Feb. 4. (Bloomberg, 02.08.17, RFE/RL, 02.04.17)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not take offense at the outbreak of a lethal bout of fighting in Ukraine that began within a day of his phone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, saying of the recent clashes, “we don’t really know exactly what that is.” “They’re pro-forces,” Trump said of the Ukrainian separatists in an interview that aired on Feb. 6 on “The O’Reilly Factor” on Fox News. “We don’t know, are they uncontrollable? Are they uncontrolled? That happens also. We’re going to find out; I would be surprised, but we’ll see.” (New York Times, 02.06.17).
• A telephone call that U.S. President Donald Trump held on Feb. 4 with President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine raised further questions about Trump’s position on the conflict and his administration’s commitment to maintaining sanctions against Russia for the annexation of Crimea. In an official account of the call, Trump had said he was willing to work with Kiev and Moscow to resolve the conflict. But the statement referred to restoring “peace along the border,” while the violence has been playing out inside eastern Ukraine: "We will work with Ukraine, Russia and all other parties involved to help them restore peace along the border." Poroshenko's office said the conversation with Trump paid particular attention to "settlement of the situation in the Donbas and achieving peace via political and diplomatic means." Trump has also discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine during a call with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. (New York Times, 02.06.17, Reuters, 02.05.17, RFE/RL,02.06.17)
• During an unusual private meeting on the sidelines of the Feb. 2 National Prayer Breakfast, U.S. President Donald Trump promised Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko that the United States wouldn’t lift sanctions on Russia until it pulls out of Ukraine, according to three people briefed on the meeting. Two operatives briefed on the reaction from within the Petro Poroshenko administration said the Ukrainian president’s allies, including his ambassador to the U.S., Valery Chaly, were apoplectic when they learned of Tymoshenko’s meeting. (Politico, 02.03.17)
• “We’re watching,” U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said, when asked on ABC’s “This Week” whether the White House plans to put Russia on notice, as it has Iran, over violating the cease-fire in Ukraine. “And very troubled by the increased hostilities over the past week in eastern Ukraine.” (The Washington Post, 02.05.17)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman is rejecting suggestions that the Kremlin and the Trump administration may try to negotiate a deal over the war in eastern Ukraine. The conflict “can hardly be a subject for some kind of deal,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (AP, 02.09.17)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Feb. 7 praised U.S. President Donald Trump's approach to the Ukraine crisis, saying it marked a big improvement from that of his predecessor Barack Obama, in comments likely to worry Kiev. "[Trump] said he wants to get to grips with everything in Ukraine and understand how to behave. This, I already believe, is a big and qualitative shift compared to the Obama's administration," the TASS news agency quoted Lavrov as saying. (Reuters, 02.07.17)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on Ukrainian troops and separatist rebels on Feb. 6 to cease fire in eastern Ukraine. In their first phone call since a flare-up in hostilities in the east, Putin and Merkel on Feb. 7 expressed concern over heavy fighting in Ukraine’s industrial heartland. The Kremlin said in a statement that Putin pointed out to Merkel remarks made by some Ukrainian officials indicating that it was Kiev who triggered last week’s escalation. (AP, 02.06.17).
• The European Union’s top diplomats vowed Feb. 6 to uphold sanctions against Russia for destabilizing conflict-torn Ukraine, despite confusion over how U.S. President Donald Trump plans to manage his relations with Moscow. (AP, 02.06.17)
• "I think we should all hope there are agreements between Russia and the U.S., not to the detriment of Ukraine or to Europe, but if there is an easing of tensions between these two world powers, then that is good,” German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said. (Reuters, 02.05.17)
• In a gesture by the EU, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker promised to send 600 million euros ($638 million) to Kiev in the next few weeks after the Ukrainian government submitted a draft bill to lift a ban on Ukrainian wood exports. (Reuters, 02.10.17)
• Ukraine is the world’s third-most likely country to default on foreign debt and remains dependent on the International Monetary Fund’s four-year, $17.5 billion bailout plan, which requires energy-sector reform and the removal of utility subsidies. Kiev expects to reach a deal with the International Monetary Fund by the end of the month to allow the next tranche of aid, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said on Feb. 10. (Bloomberg, 02.06.17, Reuters, 02.10.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia is to start tracking all Belarusian food imports in a bid to crackdown on sanctioned European foodstuff sneaking across the border. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has earlier lashed out at Russia, accusing his powerful neighbor of violating treaties and using its role as an energy supplier to "grab us by the throat." (The Moscow Times, 02.09.17, RFE/RL, 02.03.17)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has canceled a meeting with the European Parliament president in Brussels, where he held talks with EU officials on issues including a new partnership agreement between Azerbaijan and the European Union. (RFE/RL, 02.06.17)
• Russian citizen Alexander Lapshin was extradited to Azerbaijani capital Baku from Minsk, the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s Office said Feb. 7. Lapshin, also a citizen of Israel, was detained in the Belorussian capital. Azerbaijani prosecutors launched a criminal case into "repeated public anti-state calls" and "illegal crossing of Azerbaijan’s state border" to visit the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. (TASS, 02.08.17)
• A senior Kazakh lawmaker has sharply criticized a Russian legislator who reportedly called for the return of what he said were "Russian territories temporarily taken by Kazakhstan." (RFE/RL, 02.06.17)
• Kazakhstan's powerful Deputy Prime Minister Imanghali Tasmaghambetov has been dismissed from his post. (RFE/RL, 02.03.17)
• Turkmenistan's gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.2% last year from 6.5% in 2015, state television reported on Feb. 8, citing final official data. (Reuters, 02.08.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s chief political strategist Steve Bannon, then the executive director of Breitbart.com, said in 2013: “I’m a Leninist … Lenin wanted to destroy the state, and that’s my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment.” (The Guardian, 02.06.17)
• “Trump said in his inaugural speech that we will not get involved in other countries’ domestic affairs, suggesting that we are backing off from regime change and democracy promotion. That is music to Putin’s ears,” says Angela Stent, a Russia expert at Georgetown University. “The hints … suggest that Trump acknowledges Russia’s ‘sphere of privileged interests’ in the post-Soviet space, as Putin likes to call it, and that the U.S. won’t interfere there.” (Financial Times, 02.09.17)
• “Donald Trump is the most pro-Russian U.S. president in a long time, raising the chances sanctions [imposed in 2014] will be lifted—a great boost for sentiment,” according to Colin Croft, manager of the Jupiter Emerging European Opportunities fund, who increased his allocation to Russia to 58%, up from 45% 18 months ago. (Financial Times, 02.09.17)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “The foundations of our nation lie upon such deep roots that our country's great and beautiful future is simply inevitable.” (The Moscow Times, 02.08.17)