6 Things to Know

1. A war of words erupted between Trump and Zelenskyy this week, reportedly bringing the U.S. leader to the verge of withdrawing American military support from Ukraine, according to Axios. It started in earnest with Zelenskyy rejecting on Feb. 15 the initial draft of the Trump team’s proposal for America’s access to Ukrainian mineral rights,¹ according to Axios. Zelenskyy then criticized the negotiations Trump’s top advisers held with their Russian counterparts on Feb. 18 in Saudi Arabia. Trump responded to this criticism by lashing out against Zelenskyy, but the latter chose to escalate even further, declaring on Feb. 19 that Trump "lives in a disinformation space.” The U.S. leader fired back, warning his Ukrainian counterpart to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country, while also describing Zelenskyy as a "dictator without elections,” whose approval rating supposedly has fallen to “four percent.”² Trump also claimed that Kyiv was to blame for the war while his envoys at a G-7 summit this week opposed calling Russia the aggressor in a joint statement. However, rather than “tone in down,” as suggested by Trump’s NSA Waltz, Zelenskyy fired back. Pointing to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which in February found that 57% of Ukrainians trusted their president, a defiant Zelenskyy said on Feb, 19: “So if anyone wants to replace me right now, that will not work.”³ The spat didn’t prevent Trump’s team from revising and resubmitting the minerals deal to Zelenskyy on Feb. 21, which Ukrainian officials were described as “working on” that same day. Various reports estimate that Ukraine has mineral deposits worth $10-$11 trillion, according to Bloomberg and British economist Adam Tooze. It is unclear, however, how realistic these estimates are, given that the total value of all mineral reserves in much larger Russia⁴ was estimated to be about $1.44 trillion, according to a February 2023 report by the U.S. Geological Survey.* 
2. Senior American and Russian officials agreed on Feb. 18 to establish high-level teams to work toward ending the war in Ukraine and finding a path toward normalizing relations, in the most extensive bilateral negotiations in more than three years, according to NYT. After the 4.5 hours of talks, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio described a three-step plan for what the U.S. and Russia planned to do next, NYT reported. First, Rubio said, both countries would negotiate how to remove restrictions placed on each other’s embassies in Moscow and Washington. In addition, he said, the U.S. would engage with Russia about “parameters of what an end” to the Ukraine war would look like. “There’s going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others,” Rubio was quoted by NYT as saying. And finally, he said, Russia and the U.S. would explore new “historic” partnerships, both in geopolitics and in business. On Feb. 19, Putin praised the past talks, describing them as “the first step to resume work across a variety of areas of mutual interest, including the Middle East.” “We also have other matters to consider such as the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets.” “We, for example, [also] have the renewal of START-3 on the table,” he said. Both Moscow and Washington said this week that Trump and Putin may meet later this month.
3. The U.S. signaled that sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table in talks over the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Feb. 20 that the U.S. is prepared to either ramp up or take down penalties based on the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. Meanwhile, Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of Western companies, according to FT. He also referred to “the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets” when describing on Feb. 19 the agenda of his interactions with Trump. A handful of U.S. companies have expressed tentative interest in resuming their Russian operations, and France’s Renault would not rule out a return to Russia either, according to FT.
4. Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands) in the past month, according to the Feb. 19, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The monthly rate of the Russian advance may have slowed down recently, but it is still nearly five times higher this winter than last, according to the card. Moreover, Russian troops are now less than three miles from the borders of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, “marking the fifth region to face partial Russian occupation and expanding Moscow’s control over the war-torn country,” according to NYT. As of the afternoon of Feb. 21, the DeepState map showed Russian forces approaching the Donetsk region’s Udachne settlement, which is less than 3 miles on a straight line from this region’s border with the Dnipropetrovsk region.
5. Ukraine and Russia are likely to reach a ceasefire in 2025, according to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence.
6. Russia, which has seen its air base in Syria attacked by UAVs this week, will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, according to Bloomberg.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• NNSA has dismissed dozens of employees after the Trump administration denied a request for a national security exemption to stop the layoffs. Former NNSA administrator Jill Hruby, who led the organization from July 2021 through her Jan. 20 resignation, said the cuts originally impacted "over 300" of NNSA’s approximately 1,900 federal employees before the agency began reversing layoffs. (USA Today, 02.14.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• South Korea said it’s willing to accept any North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine who express a desire to defect to the South, an idea that emerges amid reports of thousands of North Korean soldiers sustaining casualties in support of Russian troops. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Last month, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 25 prisoners of war each, the first of two exchanges this year so far and one of dozens since the war began. (RFE/RL, 02.19.25)
• A Financial Times investigative documentary has found evidence that Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war are not isolated incidents but are likely to be part of a broader pattern that points to a systematic policy. Ukraine’s national police have initiated more than 125,000 war crimes proceedings for a range of different offences since the start of the full-scale invasion. Prosecutors said execution cases rose dramatically last year: in 2024, they launched investigations into 43 incidents involving 133 suspected deaths. (FT, 02.20.25)
• Emergency power outages have been introduced across Ukraine following Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, state energy company Ukrenergo reported on Feb. 17. Industrial enterprises and businesses were the first to be affected, though some residential consumers have also lost electricity. Earlier, Ukrainian energy company DTEK announced that emergency blackouts had begun in the capital, as well as in the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. (Meduza, 02.17.25)
• The Trump administration has suspended the processing of all immigration applications submitted by migrants from Ukraine and Latin America who were allowed entry into the United States under specific programs during Joe Biden’s presidency. (Meduza, 02.19.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 190 square miles in Ukraine (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands), according to the Feb. 19, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.(RM, 02.19.25)
• On Feb. 15, an oil refinery in Volgograd, Russia, was attacked, less than a week after it resumed partial operations following earlier drone strikes by Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.15.25)
• On Feb. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Sribne and advanced near Dachne, Novosilka, Figolivka and in Ulakly. (RM, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 17, Ukrainian drones struck a key pumping station on a major international pipeline in southern Russia, disrupting oil supplies from Kazakhstan, the pipeline operator said Feb. 17. Seven explosive-laden drones struck a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which carries Kazakh oil across southern Russia for export via the Black Sea, including to Western Europe. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
  • Kazakhstan is seeking discussions with Ukraine after the attack. An oil pumping station on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium link, which ships about 80% of Kazakh oil production, has been halted after the attack, possibly reducing flows by about 30% during about two months of repairs. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• On Feb. 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Malynivka. The Russian forces occupied Dachne, Zelenivka, and advanced near Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Klishchiyivka, Baranivka, Novoocheretuvate, Andriivka and Pishchane. (RM, 02.21.25)
• On the night of Feb. 18 to 19, Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft Syzran Oil Refinery in Syzran, Samara Oblast. (ISW, 02.19.25)
• Emergency power outages have been introduced across Ukraine following Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, state energy company Ukrenergo reported on Feb. 17. Industrial enterprises and businesses were the first affected, though some residential consumers have also lost electricity. (Meduza, 02.17.25)
• On Feb. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces regained the position in Lysivka, while the Russian forces occupied Sverdlikove and advanced near Dachne, Zelenyi Pole and Burlatske. (RM, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 19, Putin said his troops had crossed into Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region—a first ground attack there since 2022—but Kyiv swiftly denied the claim. (Kyiv Post, 02.19.25)
• On Feb. 19, Russia hit Ukraine’s southern port city of Odesa with a massive drone strike overnight. The attack injured at least four people and left 160,000 without power and heating with temperatures dropping well below freezing, local authorities said. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• On Feb. 20, Col. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's main operational directorate, claimed Russia's army has retaken control of 64% of Kursk region territory initially captured by Ukrainian forces. According to this general, Russian forces have taken back more than 800 square kilometers (309 square miles) of territory from Ukraine in the Kursk region. In contrast, last week, Ukraine's top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces controlled around 500 square kilometers (193 square miles) in Kursk. Rudskoi claimed Russia now controlled 75% of Ukraine's Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and more than 99% of the Luhansk region. (Reuters, 02.20.24, MT, 02.20.25) Ukraine still controls about 172 square miles (roughly equivalent to 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands) in the Kursk Oblast, according to the Feb. 19, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
• On Feb. 21, Russia launched 160 drones at Ukraine overnight. Russia launched 160 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs from five directions: Oryol, Bryansk, Kursk, Millerovo and Shatalovo. Furthermore, the enemy struck the Odesa region with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Crimea. The Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed 87 drones. Another 70 enemy decoy UAVs were lost from radar tracking (without negative consequences). Air defense units operated in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions. (RBC.ua, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, Russia's military claimed that it captured two villages in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, pushing closer to the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces seized the village of Nadezhdynka, located around 10 kilometers (six miles) east of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk regional border. It also claimed control of Novosilka, a village further south. Moscow intends to gain full control of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, it was reported that Moscow is pressing its advantage on the battlefield by closing in on Dnipropetrovsk, one of Ukraine’s largest regions and one with a major industrial base. Russian troops are now less than three miles from the region’s border, and they have been pushing forward in recent days. Should the Russian Army cross from the eastern Donetsk region into Dnipropetrovsk, it would deal a big blow to morale in Ukraine—marking the fifth region to face partial Russian occupation and expanding Moscow’s control over the war-torn country. It could also complicate Kyiv’s position in territorial negotiations that might arise during peace talks. (NYT, 02.21.25)
• More than half of the 7,300 tanks Russia had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, only 500 can be reconditioned quickly. (The Economist, 02.18.25)
• At least 25 Russian conscripts have died in the six months since Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border incursion into Russia’s southwestern Kursk region, the investigative outlet Vyorstka reported. (MT/AFP, 02.20.25)
• Russian soldiers are reportedly paying bribes ranging from 700,000 to 3 million rubles to avoid frontline combat, according to an investigation by iStories. The practice highlights systemic corruption within the Russian military, with some soldiers even securing medical exemptions or transfers to safer positions through illicit payments. (iStories, 02.17.25)
• Russian military commanders are “forcing” men mobilized in 2022 to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, according to independent Russian media outlet Verstka. (UKMOD X account, 02.14.25)
• Ukraine’s defense intelligence unit (GUR) rigged a batch of drone pilot goggles with explosives, targeting Russian forces on the battlefield. The operation, inspired by Israel’s Mossad tactics, has been confirmed as ongoing by a GUR official. (FT, 02.21.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• In an unsubstantiated claim in his post Feb. 19, U.S. President Donald Trump said: “Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is ‘MISSING’.” “A modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle,” Trump wrote. In separate remarks Trump said he’s open to allowing Europe to buy U.S.-made weapons to give to Ukraine. (FT, 02.19.25, MT/AFP, 02.19.25, Bloomberg, 02.16.25)
  • According to a U.S. State Department report from January, Ukraine has received $65.9 billion in American military aid since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Another $69.2 billion in military assistance was sent in the period after Moscow first backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. (MT/AFP, 02.19.25)
  • The most authoritative numbers on aid to Ukraine are compiled regularly by the Kiel Institute. Its latest report, published on Feb. 14, shows that European contributions outstrip America’s aid. Start with the grand total countries worldwide have allocated €267bn ($280bn) in aid to Ukraine, or roughly €80bn per year. America remains the single most important donor by a wide margin but European countries, including the EU, have collectively surpassed its efforts, with €132bn in allocated aid compared with America’s €114bn. (The Economist,  02.18.25)
• Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker in the U.S. House of Representatives, said there was “no appetite” for another funding bill for Ukraine in Congress, adding the conflict had to be brought to an end. (FT, 02.20.25)
• European leaders held an urgently arranged meeting on Feb. 17 in part to discuss the potential deployment of their troops to Ukraine under a ceasefire deal, as contacts accelerate between the United States and Russia over halting the war. The latest iteration under discussion envisions a “reassurance” or “deterrence” force of a few brigades, possibly 25,000 to 30,000 troops, who would not be stationed along the contact line but would stand ready as a show of force if Russian forces tried to restart the war, they said. The troops could be backstopped by more forces outside Ukraine in case they need to ramp up and move quickly. (WP, 02.17.25)
  • While Washington has ruled out U.S. troops in Ukraine, European officials say the Trump team has not excluded the prospect of supporting a European force and has asked what kind of U.S. backing might be necessary. The U.S. has asked European capitals to provide detailed proposals on the weaponry, peacekeeping troops and security arrangements they could provide Ukraine with as part of any security guarantees to end its war with Russia. The European requests to the U.S. include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, and potential air cover or some help with air defenses to protect the force, four officials briefed on the discussions said. (WP, 02.17.25, FT, 02.15.25)
  • British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that he was ready to deploy British boots in Ukraine as part of a deal “if necessary,” which could pressure other European leaders to make similar pledges. Starmer urged Trump to offer Ukraine security guarantees alongside Europe as part of a potential peace deal, following the meeting of European leaders in Paris. (Bloomberg, 02.17.25, WP, 02.17.25)
  • Voters in Denmark are in favor of sending peacekeepers to the country once the war is over, according to an opinion poll. About 53% of respondents said Denmark should take part in any future deployment of soldiers, according to the poll published by Ritzau on Feb. 21. (Bloomberg, 02.21.25)
  • Populist leaders in Bulgaria and Slovakia dismissed the option of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.18.25)
• The European Union is working on an initiative to provide Ukraine with additional military support as soon as possible this year, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News. The aim is to deliver at least 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition, air defense systems, deep-precision strike missiles and drones, as well as support to train and equip brigades and bolster ties between the defense industries of the EU and Ukraine. EU countries are preparing a military aid package worth at least €6 billion for Ukraine as it seeks to shore up Kyiv's strategic position at the outset of U.S.-led talks with Russia, according to three EU diplomats. (Politico, 02.19.25, Bloomberg, 02.18.25)
• The U.K. government is considering deploying Typhoon fighter jets to Ukraine as a security guarantee for a potential ceasefire agreement instead of sending ground troops, The Times reported Feb. 18. (Meduza, 02.19.25)
• Ukrainian pilot Oleksiy Mes, call sign “Moonfish,” was killed when his F-16 jet exploded during a mission on Aug. 26, 2024, shortly after returning from training in Denmark. While the cause of the crash is under investigation, sources suggest friendly fire may have been involved, as the U.S. withheld technology that helps distinguish between friendly and enemy aircraft. Mes had shot down two Russian cruise missiles and a drone earlier that day. (WSJ, 02.15.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The U.S. signaled that sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table in talks over the war in Ukraine as Trump rushes toward a deal to end the three-year conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Feb. 20 that the U.S. is prepared to either ramp up or take down penalties based on the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. “That’d be a very good characterization,” he said in response to a question about the potential for adjustments in either direction, in an interview on Bloomberg Television Feb. 20. (Bloomberg, 02.20.25, Bloomberg, 02.20.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies that the U.S. will keep sanctions on Russia in place at least until a deal to end the Ukraine conflict is reached. Rubio gave the assurance that sanctions won’t be lifted sooner to a group of European counterparts on a call Feb. 18. The conversation took place after Rubio joined other U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia Feb. 18 in the highest-level face-to-face meeting with Russian counterparts since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• The United States has appropriated just over $174 billion in U.S. funds in response to Russia's war against Ukraine, the Congressional Research Service said in a report issued last month. The federal Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group keeps detailed track of the funds. More than $100 billion, some of it humanitarian rather than military support, has directly aided the Ukrainian government, according to an analysis of Congressional Budget Office figures published last year by the Council on Foreign Relations. (WP, 02.21.25)
• G-7 foreign ministers have agreed to continuing working together to get a strong peace deal for Ukraine with robust security guarantees and linked future sanctions on Russia to good-faith negotiations by Moscow. "Any new, additional sanctions after February should be linked to whether the Russian Federation enters into real, good-faith efforts to bring an enduring end to the war against Ukraine that provides Ukraine with long-term security and stability as a sovereign, independent country," the statement, which includes U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said after a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. (Reuters/VOA, 02.15.25) For RM accounts of some of the Belfer Center staff’s activities at MSC, including one panel, see here and here.
  • The U.S. is opposed to calling Russia the aggressor in a G-7 statement on the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, threatening to derail a traditional show of unity, according to Western officials. U.S. envoys are objecting to the phrase “Russian aggression” and similar words that have been used by G-7 leaders since 2022 to describe the war in Ukraine. (FT, 02.20.25)
  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has opted out of a G-7 call to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as she seeks to avoid angering Trump while he is locked in a bitter row with Kyiv. (FT, 02.21.25)
• EU capitals have agreed a fresh sanctions package against Russia. The new penalties include a gradual ban on aluminum imports, restrictions on dozens of vessels in Moscow’s shadow fleet of tankers and prohibiting about a dozen more banks from accessing the SWIFT international payments system, according to two people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25, FT, 02.19.25)
• Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, three sources told Reuters. After Putin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022, the United States and its allies prohibited transactions with Russia's central bank and finance ministry, blocking $300-$350 billion of sovereign Russian assets, mostly European, U.S. and British government bonds held in a European securities depository. One source with knowledge of the discussions in Moscow said that Russia could accept up to two-thirds of the reserves going to the restoration of Ukraine under a peace deal, provided there were accountability guarantees. (Reuters, 02.21.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of Western companies, a sign of a potential corporate renaissance from the unfolding U.S.-Russia rapprochement. Russia’s president said on Feb. 21 he wanted Russian companies to have “certain advantages” over “those that return to our market” as payback for Western sanctions. Since the beginning of the war, 472 foreign companies have left the Russian market, with another 1,360 scaling back their presence in the country, according to data compiled by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute. (FT, 02.21.25)
• A handful of U.S. companies have expressed tentative interest in resuming their Russian operations, according to people familiar with the matter, although none have yet taken any active steps to return. Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian sovereign wealth fund head who helped broker the talks, claims U.S. companies lost $324bn from pulling out of the country and has said he expects some of them to return this year. The KSE institute says U.S. companies only had $52bn in assets in Russia, while U.S. companies that left generated just $36bn from 2021 to 2023. (FT, 02.21.25)
• Dmitriev, the Russian government’s top investment manager, who has Harvard and McKinsey credentials, brought a simple printout to the Feb. 18 talks with the Trump administration in Saudi Arabia. Its message: “Losses of U.S. companies by industry,” read the document, which Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, showed to a New York Times reporter. “Total losses,” one of the columns said. The sum at the bottom: $324 billion. (NYT, 02.19.25)
• Renault’s chief executive said the company would not rule out a return to Russia. Asked about returning to Russia, Renault chief executive Luca de Meo said: “I’d rather focus on building the future than catching up on the past . . . but we’re business people. When we see a business opportunity, we’ll try to grasp it.” The company made a tenth of its revenues in Russia before the war and employed 45,000 people, far more than many other multinationals who exited the country in 2022. (FT, 02.20.25)
• A leading Norwegian automotive supplier has exported millions of dollars in truck parts that ended up feeding Russia’s war machine via a Turkish intermediary, which resold them in circumvention of EU sanctions, an investigation by Schemes. Kongsberg Automotive, based in Kongsberg in southern Norway, is a major supplier of parts to leading car brands. It says it halted all direct exports to Russia in 2022 on its own initiative, calling sales to an “aggressor” state “immoral and reprehensible.” (RFE/RL, 02.20.25)
• An organization representing hundreds of shopping malls in Russia has called on international fashion retailers Uniqlo, H&M and Inditex to return to the country, citing struggles faced by their local replacements, state media reported Feb. 17. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
• Russians have taken to injecting themselves with cheap copycat Ozempic after Novo Nordisk’s withdrawal of its blockbuster drug prompted local pharma companies to flood the market with alternatives. (FT, 02.19.25)
• The EU wants to replace at least some of the fertilizer it imports from Russia with products processed from “homegrown” animal dung and urine to reduce revenues going to Moscow’s war machine. (FT, 02.21.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

On Sunday, Feb. 16:

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on Feb. 16 to "open a channel of communication" for future talks about the war in Ukraine. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that Rubio spoke with Lavrov as a follow up to Trump's recent call with Putin and that Rubio reaffirmed Trump's commitment to ending the war in Ukraine. (ISW, 02.16.25)
• In a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers at Munich, Rubio was much less forthcoming with his views on Ukraine, said three people briefed on the discussions. Two said he noted that the talks with Lavrov would focus on logistics and planning for a Putin-Trump meeting. Rubio told CBS Feb. 16 that Putin’s call with Trump had gone well but that “the next few weeks and days will determine whether it’s serious or not . . . there’s a lot of work to be done.” (FT, 02.16.25)
• "Right now there is no process," Rubio told "Face the Nation" host Margaret Brennan, but "if there is a process," Europe and Ukraine will have to be part of it. (WP, 02.16.25)
• One senior European official said there was “95% agreement” with Keith Kellogg, the 80-year-old retired general appointed as Trump’s Ukraine envoy, who has called Russia “the enemy.” But the official cautioned that the views of Kellogg, who was not named as a member of Trump’s four-man negotiating team, did not necessarily chime with those of Rubio, “who might not see it the same way.” (FT, 02.16.25)
• Asked if Putin was capable of negotiating in good faith, Zelenskyy told NBC Feb. 16: "He's a liar. He doesn't want any peace." Neither Zelenskyy nor his top aide, Andriy Yermak, plans to attend the meeting in Saudi Arabia. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would “never” accept a peace deal struck by the United States and Russia if Ukraine did not have a seat at the negotiating table. (NYT, 02.16.25, WP, 02.16.25)
• The Kremlin officially reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, setting conditions for Moscow to claim that Ukraine has no standing to negotiate with Russia or that any agreements reached with Ukraine in the future are invalid. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on Feb. 16 that Russia has adjusted its approach to potential talks with Ukraine because Ukraine allegedly has a "deficit" of sovereignty. (ISW, 02.16.25)

On Monday, Feb. 17:

• On Feb. 17, Kellogg said that he would not tell Ukraine to accept whatever deal is negotiated by Trump to end Russia's war, ahead of a visit to Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
• French President Emmanual Macron convened an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris on Feb. 17 to discuss concerns over Trump’s push for an agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Participants included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. (Meduza, 02.18.25)
• The EU must be involved in negotiations with Russia over the end of the Ukraine war in order to map out Europe’s future security architecture, the European Council president António Costa said. (FT, 02.17.25)
  • Russia dismissed European efforts to carve out a place at the peace talks and possibly send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. “Their desire to be part of the Ukraine negotiating process has been satisfied more than once,” Lavrov said, referring to the failed Minsk process, led by France and Germany, that brokered a fragile ceasefire following Russia’s initial invasion in 2014. (FT, 02.17.25)
  • Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president’s spokesperson, said it was “difficult to talk about” a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine because it would involve NATO members and “NATO troops will be deployed on Ukrainian territory.” (FT, 02.17.25)
• Lavrov said Feb. 17 that he saw no reason for European leaders to take part in negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine and accused Brussels of wanting to prolong the conflict. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)

On Tuesday, Feb. 18:

• Senior American and Russian officials agreed on Feb. 18 to establish high-level teams to work toward ending the war in Ukraine and finding a path toward normalizing relations, in the most extensive bilateral negotiations in more than three years, according to NYT. After the 4.5 hours of talks, Rubio described a three-step plan for what the U.S. and Russia planned to do next, NYT reported. First, he said, both countries would negotiate how to remove restrictions placed on each other’s embassies in Moscow and Washington. In addition, he said, the U.S. would engage with Russia about “parameters of what an end” to the Ukraine war would look like. “There’s going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others,” Rubio was quoted by NYT as saying. And finally, he said, Russia and the U.S. would explore new “historic” partnerships, both in geopolitics and in business.[5] 
  • After meeting with Russian negotiators, Rubio signaled a dramatic reset in relations with the Kremlin, trumpeting “the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians.” Hours later, though, Rubio sought to reassure nervous European allies that the talks did not represent an abrupt departure from American policies, as many feared. Rather, the talks this week in Riyadh were meant as a first step in a process, a test of whether the Kremlin was serious about making a deal, Rubio said in a call with several European diplomats. (NYT, 02.20.25)
  • After the talks, Trump’s national security adviser Waltz suggested Ukraine's government would have a say, calling it "common sense" that "if you're going to bring both sides together, you have to talk to both sides,” according to CBS. "We are absolutely talking to both sides," Waltz said.
  • After the talks, Trump’s envoy Witkoff said the U.S has consulted Zelenskyy and Macron, and that the EU was “going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.” But the Russian foreign ministry ruled out a role for Europe in the Ukraine talks and demanded NATO rescind an open-ended 2008 invitation to Kyiv, as it said Moscow was “categorically opposed” to a European peacekeeping deployment, NYT reported.
  • After the talks Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said the discussions were “not bad,” NYT reported. Ushakov said the exact date of the meeting between Putin and Trump has not yet been determined, but it is unlikely to be next week, according to TASS.
  • Lavrov stated that the parties "not only listened, but heard each other,” according to Republic.ru. Lavrov also announced that Russia-U.S. consultations on Ukraine would now be held regularly. Lavrov also said that he was unaware of a reported U.S. peace proposal for Ukraine that includes agreeing to a ceasefire, holding elections and signing a final peace deal. The so-called “three-stage peace plan” was allegedly proposed by both the United States and Russia, Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich reported, citing unnamed foreign diplomatic sources.
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry said: “agreements were reached on establishing a dialogue to agree on ways to resume cooperation in the economy, including energy, space and other areas of mutual interest.” “The parties agreed to resume communication channels on other international issues, taking into account the special responsibility of Russia and the United States in matters of peace and security as nuclear powers,” the ministry said.
  • Russian deputy foreign minister Grushko said the Kremlin was “categorically opposed” to European troops deploying to Ukraine “no matter what their role is.” He added that such a move would be “a step toward escalation,” according to FT.
  • Kremlin spokesman Peskov said any deal should “take into account the possibility of disputing Zelenskyy’s legitimacy” after the Ukrainian president’s term expired last year, according to FT. A long-term settlement in Ukraine is "impossible" without addressing wider issues of European security, he said, according to AFP.
• Shortly after the United States' opening meeting with Russian officials, Zelenskyy lashed out at the Trump administration's negotiating tactics in his harshest terms yet for excluding Ukrainians from talks on their own country's fate. ''Decisions on how to end the war in Ukraine cannot be made without Ukraine, nor can any conditions be imposed,'' Zelenskyy said from Turkey, where he had traveled as part of a planned tour of the Middle East. ''We were not invited to this Russian-American meeting in Saudi Arabia. It was a surprise for us, I think for many others as well.'' ''I don't know who will stay, who will leave or who is planning to go where. To be honest, I don't care,'' he said. ''I don't want coincidences, and that's why I will not go to Saudi Arabia.'' (NYT, 02.18.25)
• Trump appeared to blame Ukraine for the war with Russia and signaled Kyiv should hold elections, hours after the U.S. held high-level talks with Moscow in Riyadh. Trump falsely claimed Kyiv had started the conflict, and added he was “very disappointed” that Ukraine was “upset about not having a seat” at the talks. “Today I heard: ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited,’” the U.S. president said. “Well, you’ve been there for three years . . . you should have never started it. You could have made a deal.” Asked if a meeting with the Russian leader would take place before the end of the month, Trump said, “probably,” without elaborating. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25, FT, 02.19.25)
• The European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, and the foreign ministers of Britain, Germany, France and Italy spoke to Rubio about the talks. "Russia will try to divide us. Let's not walk into their traps," Kallas said on X late Feb. 18, advocating cooperation with the U.S. for "a just and lasting peace—on Ukraine's terms." (WSJ, 02.19.25)
  • European nations have been left at the kids’ table in talks over the future of Ukraine because of decades of under-investment in defense, the chief of Germany’s largest defense contractor has warned. Armin Papperger, chief executive of Rheinmetall, said Europe had itself to blame for being sidelined from Trump’s negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. (FT, 02.18.25)

On Wednesday, Feb. 19:

• Zelenskyy appealed to the Trump administration to respect the truth and avoid disinformation in discussing the war that began with a Russian invasion of his country, in his first response to Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine had started the war. “I would like to have more truth with the Trump team,” Zelenskyy said in some of the most pointed criticism yet of Trump and the new American administration, which on Feb. 18 opened peace talks with Russia that excluded Ukraine. Zelenskyy said that the U.S. president was “living in a disinformation space” and in a “circle of disinformation.” (NYT, 02.19.25, (FT, 02.19.25)
  • Zelenskyy angered Trump so much during the peace talks with Russia that Trump was on the verge of withdrawing American military support from Ukraine, three U.S. officials familiar with the discussions tell Axios. (Axios, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 19, Putin commented on recent U.S.-Russia talks, expressing optimism about the negotiations and confirming plans to restore normal diplomatic operations. He praised Trump’s approach to Ukraine and expressed willingness. Putin said that Trump told him Ukraine would be part of any talks on ending the war and wouldn’t be left out. (Meduza, 02.19.25, Meduza, 02.19.25, MT/AFP, 02.19.25)  
• Putin said in his Feb. 19 remarks in St. Petersburg:
  • “The first thing I would like to say is that we have agreed to resume normal operation of our respective diplomatic missions. The unending expulsions of diplomats from Washington D.C. and Moscow do not do anything good to anyone.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.19.25)
  • “I believe we have made the first step to resume work across a variety of areas of mutual interest, including the Middle East in the broad sense of the word—I mean our presence in Syria, the Palestinian-Israeli settlement and so on. There are many issues there that involve both the United States and the Russian Federation, even though, of course, the situation in Ukraine is our priority. ... But we also have other matters to consider such as the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.19.25)
  • “The Europeans terminated contacts with Russia, and the Ukrainian side has self-imposed a ban on negotiations, withdrawing from the Istanbul process and publicly announcing that. ... We, for example, have the renewal of START-3 on the table. People may have forgotten, but this treaty will expire exactly one year from now in February 2026. Do they really want to sit at the negotiating table and mediate between Russia and the United States? Probably, not. But why throw tantrums? That is totally uncalled for.” (Kremlin.ru, 02.19.25)

On Thursday, Feb. 20:

• French President Emmanuel Macron said that he would meet Trump in Washington in the coming days to discuss Ukraine, adding he would tell the U.S. president to avoid being “weak” with Putin. The meeting will take place Feb. 24. Ahead of it Macron said he wants the European Union to boost its military autonomy and alleviate reliance on the U.S. over the next five to 10 years. (FT, 02.20.25, Bloomberg, 02.20.25)

On Friday, Feb. 21:

• Ukraine and Russia are likely to reach a ceasefire in 2025. However, the length and effectiveness of such an agreement remain open questions, Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence said. (RBC.ua, 02.21.25)
• China's top diplomat says that a "window for peace" is opening amid a quickening pace of U.S. diplomacy around ending the war in Ukraine and steps by Washington to normalize relations with Moscow. “China supports all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached by the United States and Russia,” and was willing to play a “constructive role” in peace talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told ministers at a Group of 20 summit in South Africa on Feb. 21, according to a statement. (RFE/RL, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, Trump said there was no need for Zelenskyy to take part in talks on ending the conflict with Russia, keeping up his attacks on the Ukrainian leader. “I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you,” Trump said. “When Zelenskyy said, oh, he wasn’t invited to a meeting, I mean, it wasn’t a priority because he did such a bad job in negotiating so far.” “I've been watching for years, and I've been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards. And you get sick of it. You just get sick of it. And I've had it,” Trump said. (Bloomberg, 02.21.25, Independent, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, Rubio pushed back against accusations that the Trump administration has given in to Russia even before talks on ending the Ukraine war begin, saying Washington first wants to see whether Moscow was "serious." (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East confirmed in a video that he met with Putin during a recent trip to Moscow, where he secured the release of an American prisoner. “I spent a lot of time with President Putin, talking, developing a friendship, a relationship with him,” Steve Witkoff said in a video from a Miami conference hosted by a Saudi Arabia-linked nonprofit. (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)
• Based on their public and private statements, Trump's team is expected to pressure Zelenskyy into giving up Crimea (which Putin seized in 2014), portions of eastern Ukraine and the Azov Coast (occupied in Russia's 2022 invasion). (Axios, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, it was reported that U.S. and Russian figures had held secret back-channel discussions on Ukraine in Switzerland since Trump’s election victory in November. The so-called “track two” talks, which involve unofficial expert dialogues rather than government negotiations, are aimed at “improving communication and floating ideas” rather than drafting concrete proposals, according to the report. (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• During U.S.-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow demanded the withdrawal of NATO forces from the alliance’s eastern flank, raising concerns in Europe that the Trump administration might concede to secure a deal. Cristian Diaconescu, the Romanian president’s chief of staff and adviser for defense and national security, said on Feb. 19 that the U.S. delegation had rejected Moscow’s demand, but that there were no guarantees that Washington would not eventually make this concession to Vladimir Putin. (FT, 02.21.25)
• The U.S. is likely to maintain its commitment to NATO, though it may reduce its troop presence in Europe as its priorities shift to the Indo-Pacific region, said Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, who took over as the chair of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Military Committee last month. (Bloomberg, 02.17.25)
• Denmark will boost its defense spending to more than 3% of economic output (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• Russia's spy services have a shadowy new unit taking aim at the West with covert attacks across Europe and elsewhere, Western intelligence officials say. Known as the Department of Special Tasks (SSD), it is based in the Russian military-intelligence headquarters, a sprawling glass-and-steel complex on the outskirts of Moscow known as the aquarium. Its operations, which haven't been previously reported, have included attempted killings, sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes. Hostile activities by the SSD peaked last summer, but have subsided recently, according to U.S. and European officials. The lull in activity could be aimed at creating diplomatic space for Moscow to negotiate with the new U.S. administration, according to the two European intelligence chiefs. (WSJ, 02.15.25
• Intelligence from the United States and close allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to control all of Ukraine, according to four Western intelligence officials and two U.S. congressional officials. “We have zero intelligence that Putin is interested in a real peace deal right now,” one of the congressional officials said. (NBC, 02.19.25)
• Swedish authorities said Feb. 21 that they were investigating suspected damage to an underwater cable in the Baltic Sea, following a series of incidents that some observers believe are acts of sabotage linked to Russia. Finnish operator Cinia reported "some disturbance" on its C-Lion 1 communications cable, which connects Finland and Germany. (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)
• The U.K. has kickstarted negotiations today on a major defense agreement with Norway in a move that will bolster security at home and on the European continent and help deter Russian aggression. (UKMOD, 02.20.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Germany should negotiate with France and Britain and use its nuclear weapons to defend Ukrainian territory amid a change in U.S. rhetoric, said Christian Democratic Union candidate Friedrich Merz. Merz is the favorite in the election race, with his party gaining around 28% in polls ahead of the vote Feb. 23. Merz thus has a high chance of heading the new coalition government of Germany. (Istories, 02.21.25)
•  For Putin’s expression of intention to negotiate a revival of New START, see the section on Ukraine-related negotiations.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, achieving a key objective for Putin after the downfall of the Assad regime he backed, according to people familiar with the matter. Moscow is close to a deal with the new Syrian government that would allow it to maintain some staff and equipment in the country, the people said. (Bloomberg, 02.17.25)
• On Feb. 18 night, an air raid alarm was declared at the Khmeimim Air Base of the Russian Aerospace Forces in western Syria, air defense systems repelled the drone attack, OSINT researcher SyrianOSINT reported, as well as the Sabereen News Telegram channel associated with the militants. Analysts on social networks note that the organizers of the attack are unknown. Pro-Russian military blogger Oleg Blokhin writes that the Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani) became the interim president of Syria after the overthrow of Kremlin-loyal Bashar al-Assad, is behind the attack. This is the first attack on Russian military facilities in the country in many months. (Istories, 02.18.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian state-aligned hackers have compromised accounts on the Signal messaging service by exploiting the app’s device-linking feature, according to Google’s Threat Intelligence Group. (Bloomberg, 02.21.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The Group of Seven is considering collectively tightening or adapting an oil price cap on Russian petroleum in an effort to reduce Moscow’s revenues as the war in Ukraine continues. A draft statement seen by Bloomberg News shows that G-7 nations could task their finance ministers to collectively redraw the price limit—currently set at $60 a barrel for crude oil—which was introduced to curb the Kremlin’s access to petrodollars. (Bloomberg, 02.18.25)
• The potential easing of Western sanctions on Russia is unlikely to significantly increase Moscow's oil flows, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders are closely monitoring talks between the U.S. and Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, as a peace deal could lead to the lifting of sanctions and resumption of some Russian exports to Europe. However, "Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9 million barrels a day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," analysts at the U.S. bank say. (WSJ, 02.19.25)
• The global energy market needs trilateral discussions between Russia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, said President Vladimir Putin. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• Russia’s exports of refined products dropped this month as the surge in diesel outflows observed in January has subsided. Shipments in the first 15 days of February dropped to 2.3 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s about 8% below the average flows in January. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• Privately-run terminals in China have taken deliveries from U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers, suggesting that a region that is home to the country’s largest buyers of Iranian and Russian crude is finding ways to circumvent the reluctance of larger port operators. (Bloomberg, 02.18.25)
• At least four oil tankers have been hit with explosions so far this year—all of them having visited Russia’s territorial waters in the weeks prior to the blasts happening. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the incidents, three of which have happened in the Mediterranean and one in the Baltic Sea. (Bloomberg, 02.20.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russian video streaming platforms are in talks with major Hollywood studios about restoring their film libraries for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 02.19.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The Kremlin extended an open invitation to Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow as part of efforts to posture Russia's strength and global power status. Peskov stated in response to a question about whether the Kremlin is considering hosting Trump at the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be "happy to welcome" any head of state to the parade. (ISW, 02.16.25)
  • A possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will depend on whether progress is made on ending the war in Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Feb. 20. (RFE/RL, 02.21.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Feb. 19 that a meeting between Putin and Trump before the end of February couldn’t be ruled out. The U.S.-Russia talks were an important first step in restoring bilateral relations though it’s impossible to resolve every issue in a day, he said. (Bloomberg, 02.19.25)
• According to Kommersant, Special Envoy for Libya Richard Norland may become the U.S. Ambassador to Moscow. (Media Zone, 02.18.25)
• Dozens of U.S. government employees who had been working to fight foreign interference in U.S. elections have been reassigned or forced out, according to current and former officials. The Trump administration is targeting government officials who had been flagging foreign interference in U.S. elections, despite ongoing concerns that adversaries are stoking political and social divisions by spreading propaganda and disinformation online, current and former government officials said. (NYT, 02.20.25)
• Russia has freed an American citizen who was arrested this month on drug smuggling charges. Kalob Byers, a 28-year-old from West Virginia, was released to U.S. authorities. (WP, 02.18.25)
• A joint survey by the Levada Center and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 70% of Russians believe their country should actively participate in global affairs, compared to 56% of Americans. Both Russians and Americans view military superiority as the most effective approach to achieving foreign policy goals, with 92% of Russians and 84% of Americans endorsing it. While Americans prioritize economic power (73%) over military strength (23%), Russians are nearly evenly split, with 55% emphasizing military power and 45% economic power. (Levada Center, 02.20.25)

For details of the Feb. 18 talks between U.S. and Russian negotiators in Saudi Arabia, see the section on Ukraine-related negotiations above.

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia has posted its largest budget deficit in three years while depleting its rainy day fund by 57% since the start of the war. However, analysts say the Kremlin still has enough resources to cannibalize the civilian economy to support its war spending, at least for 2025. Russia posted a budget deficit of 3.49 trillion rubles ($34.4 billion) in 2024, a three-year high in nominal terms and an 8% increase over 2023. It was also the third year in a row in which Russia has run a deficit of over 3 trillion rubles. (MT/AFP, 02.18.25)
• While inflation has cooled almost everywhere, in Russia it is hotting up. Consumer prices rose by 9.5% year on year in December, up from 8.9% the previous month and uncomfortably above the central bank’s target of 4% (see chart). The prices of fruit and vegetables have risen by more than 20% on average in the past year. (The Economist 02.13.25.) 
• According to Mikhail Zadornov, a former finance minister, Russia’s liquid assets have shrunk from 7.4% of GDP to below 2%. (The Economist, 02.18.25)
• Russia’s currency has gained against the dollar amid a dramatic shift in U.S. policy toward Vladimir Putin in the early days of Donald Trump’s administration. The ruble has strengthened 13% versus the greenback since the beginning of the year, making it the best performing currency in the emerging market universe, data from the Bank of Russia and Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 02.20.25)
• Russia's stock market has climbed 17% since the start of 2025, with analysts at state-run lender Sberbank attributing the gains in part to "reduced geopolitical pressure." (MT/AFP, 02.20.25)
• Russia has hit a record low in the newly released 2024 Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International. It occupies the 154th place out of the 180, the lowest placement for the nation in the history of the index. Ukraine ranked 105th out of 180 countries that participated in the ranking (VOA,Babel.ua, 02.11.25)
• The natural population decline of Russia, excluding territories annexed after 2022, increased by 20.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 (596,200 people versus 495,200). This is stated in the Rosstat report on natural population movement. Natural decline is understood as the excess of deaths over births. In 2024, 3.4% fewer children were born in the country, and 3.3% more people died. Rosstat currently counts 146.028 million people in the country. According to Rosstat's forecast, by 2030, Russia's population could shrink by another 3 million people, to about 143 million. (Istories, 02.21.25)
• The first anniversary of Alexei Navalny's death in jail is a stark reminder that Moscow is holding "more than 2,000 political prisoners," the UN's expert on rights in Russia said Feb. 17. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
  • Hundreds of supporters and allies of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny gathered in a Berlin church for a memorial service marking the first anniversary of his death. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
  • Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Alexei Navalny, on Sunday urged supporters to fight for a "free, peaceful" Russia. (MT/AFP, 02.16.25)
  • The EU on Sunday said that Russia's President Vladimir Putin bore "ultimate responsibility" for the death of Alexei Navalny. (MT/AFP, 02.16.25)
• A court in Siberia handed down Russia’s first-ever prison sentence under the country’s ban on the so-called “international LGBT movement,” the independent news website Mediazona reported Feb. 19. On Jan. 30, the Yaysky District Court in the Kemerovo region convicted an unnamed individual of “LGBT extremism,” sentencing them to six years in a maximum-security prison, according to Mediazona. (MT/AFP, 02.19.25)
• Officials in St. Petersburg announced controversial plans to equip thousands of the city’s surveillance cameras with ethnicity recognition software, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Feb. 20. (MT/AFP, 02.20.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• At least 166,000 servicemen have been treated in Russian military hospitals in 2.5 years of the war. (Istories, 02.21.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Three Tajik migrants have been killed in a Russian security forces raid, relatives and friends said, after local authorities claimed they had uncovered a terrorist plot in Russia's western Pskov region. (RFE/RL, 02.20.25)
• Russian military courts sentenced more than 1,000 people on terrorist charges last year, President Vladimir Putin said Feb. 20, referring to a massive wave of prosecutions during the Ukraine war. (MT/AFP, 02.20.25)
• Russian courts handled 429 terrorism-related criminal cases in 2024, a 40% increase from the previous year, the country’s top investigative authority said Feb. 17. “The organizers of these crimes are usually located abroad, while young people, pensioners and others fall under their influence,” Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Feb. 19 that it charged exiled former lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov with attempting a coup and organizing a terrorist group. (MT/AFP, 02.19.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia has responded furiously after Italy's president equated its war in Ukraine to the aggression of Nazi Germany, fueling existing tensions between Rome and Moscow over the conflict. Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova late on Sunday warned that the comments by President Sergio Mattarella "cannot and will never be left without consequences." (MT/AFP, 02.17.25)
• Three hostages were released from captivity in Gaza and 369 Palestinians were freed from Israeli jails in a ceasefire swap that averted a collapse of the six-week truce deal between Israel and Hamas. The three men released in Gaza—including an American citizen and a Israeli-Russian national—were handed over to Israeli security forces in the Gaza Strip on Saturday morning. (Bloomberg, 02.15.25)

Ukraine:

• In a Feb. 18 post on his Truth Social platform Donald Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” and warned that he “better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.” Speaking at a press conference on Feb. 18, Donald Trump said his administration, not Russian negotiators, is pushing Ukraine to hold elections to test Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as president. “That’s not a Russia thing. That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries,” the U.S. president told reporters. Trump also claimed that Zelenskyy’s approval rating has fallen to “four percent.” (Meduza, 02.19.25, FT, 02.19.25, FT, 02.19.25)⁶
  • Zelenskyy shot back at Trump's claims that his ratings stood at 4%, calling it disinformation that "is coming from Russia." "If anyone wants to replace me right now, then it just isn't going to happen," he said at a news conference Feb. 19. "I wish Trump's team had more truth. Because none of this is having a positive effect on Ukraine." Pointing to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which in February found that 57% of Ukrainians trusted their president, Zelenskyy said: “So if anyone wants to replace me right now, that will not work.” (FT, 02.19.25, WP, 02.19.25)
    • According to a poll by Ukraine’s Socis, some 16% of Ukrainians would vote for Zelenskyy [as president] as of Feb. 2025. Leading the pack [of possible rivals] is former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Ex-president Poroshenko is third with 5.6%, according to Ukrainska Pravda. (RM, 02.21.25)
    • A survey published this week by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, or KIIS, a prominent Ukrainian polling organization, said some 57% of Ukrainians trust Zelenskyy, an increase of five percentage points from a survey in December. (WP, 02.19.25)
    • A survey of Ukrainians conducted in September and October by the non-profit International Republican Institute found that 60% of respondents opposed holding a presidential vote during the war. David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy’s ruling party in parliament, said this month that elections should not be held earlier than six months after the end of martial law. Putin’s spokesperson on Feb. 19 said a decision on Ukrainian elections “cannot be taken in Moscow or Washington.” (FT, 02.19.25)
  • The Kremlin said that it "absolutely" agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump on Ukraine after he criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for not holding elections last year and failing to push for a quick end to the war. "They [the Trump administration] talk about the need to establish peace as soon as possible and do it through negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 02.20.25)
• Zelenskyy has rejected a U.S. bid to take ownership of around 50% of the rights to his country’s rare earth minerals and is trying to negotiate a better deal, according to several people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Zelenskyy the deal during a visit to Kyiv last week. The deal only referenced the U.S. getting Ukrainian resources in exchange for past military assistance, and did not contain any proposals for similar future assistance, according to a person familiar with the document. On Feb. 19, Zelenskyy disputed Trump’s previous claims that Ukraine owed the U.S. $500 billion worth of rare minerals and other resources for past military assistance. (FT, 02.19.25, FT, 02.15.25)
  • The U.S. national security adviser, Mike Waltz, indicated the bid was at least partly for past support. The proposal would entitle the United States to half of Ukraine’s resource earnings. (NYT, 02.15.25)
  • Ukraine has large underground deposits worth up to $11.5 trillion of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as gallium, that are essential for an array of industries from defense to electric vehicles, according to British economist Adam Tooze. Various reports have claimed that Ukraine has mineral deposits worth upwards of $10 trillion. (Bloomberg, 02.18.25, RM, 02.21.25) $10–$11 trillion seems to be high, given that the total value of all mineral reserves in Russia was estimated to be about $1.44 trillion whereas the 2017 estimate was about $910 billion, according to a Feb. 2023 report by the U.S. Geological Survey. Also for context: the entire global trade in 2024 was 33 trillion USD.
  • Ukraine is believed to have deposits of at least 20 of the 50 minerals that the U.S. considers critical. These include lithium, graphite, titanium, uranium and rare earths, a collection of 17 elements that are essential for everything from cellphones to the defense industry. Before the full-scale war began in 2022, Ukraine produced 6% of the world's titanium, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Ukraine is also home to around 3% of the world's deposits of lithium, which is used in batteries and considered "critical to the U.S. economy and national security" by the U.S. Geological Survey. (WSJ, 02.21.25)
  • Ukraine already supplies 4–7% of the world’s titanium, used for paint dyes and aerospace manufacturing, and holds as much as 10–20% of global reserves. There are meanwhile four known deposits of lithium, critical for electric-vehicle battery production, within the territory Ukraine still controls. The most useful of these deposits, however, is located in Shevchenkivske in Donetsk province, just 5 kilometers from the current front line. Another sits in Berdiansk in Zaporizhia province, which is under Russian occupation. (The Economist, 02.16.25)
• On Feb. 20 The Trump administration doubled down on its criticism of Zelenskyy, with national security adviser Mike Waltz accusing Kyiv of hurling “unacceptable” insults at the U.S. president. Waltz said Trump was “very frustrated” with Zelenskyy over his perceived ingratitude for American support during the war and Kyiv’s rejection of a U.S. proposal to take rights to half of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. “Some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly—and insults to President Trump—were unacceptable,” he added. Waltz urged Kyiv to “tone it down” and finalize the agreement on mineral wealth. In a further snub, a planned news conference following talks between Zelenskyy and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, was cancelled after a U.S. request. (FT, 02.20.25, WSJ, 02.20.25)
• On Feb. 21 it was reported that The Trump administration has presented Ukraine with a revised draft agreement on mineral resources. The updated draft addresses “some concerns” raised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to the sources. In particular, certain provisions that had alarmed Ukrainian officials, such as placing the agreement under the jurisdiction of a New York court, have been removed. (Meduza, 02.21.25)
• On Feb. 21, U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz has said that Zelenskyy will sign a critical minerals deal with the U.S. in “the very short term” and that the war in Ukraine will end “soon,” although Kyiv says several key points must still be agreed. (FT, 02.21.25)
• European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced their visit to the Ukrainian capital on Monday, Feb. 24. Additionally, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that a delegation of European commissioners would also arrive in Kyiv on the anniversary. (RBC.ua, 02.21.25)
• In a new report, the Council of Europe’s anti-corruption group (GRECO) concludes that Ukraine has satisfactorily implemented 18 out of 31 recommendations on corruption prevention in respect of members of parliament, judges and prosecutors.. (GRECO, 02.20.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Western reporting suggests that the United States intends to ease sanctions on Belarus. Russia uses Belarus as a staging ground for its military against Ukraine and NATO and as a critical tool in its sanctions evasion schemes. U.S. Deputy Assistance Secretary of State Christopher Smith told CNN on Feb. 12 that he led a U.S. delegation to Minsk and met with "Belarusian counterparts" to secure the release of several political prisoners. (ISW, 02.16.25)
• Dozens of Nobel laureates on Feb. 17 urged U.S. President Donald Trump and EU leaders to help secure the release of more than 1,400 political prisoners held in Belarus. (MT/AFP, 02.18.25)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Feb. 21 accused the United States of trying to drive a wedge between Russia and China. (MT/AFP, 02.21.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Bernard-Henri Lévy, the prominent French commentator and philosopher, wrote this week: “Europe has no choice. The American president, the secretary of defense and the secretary of state have told us that we cannot depend indefinitely on the United States. We must unite or die. If we do not act, we will endure—in two, three or five years—a new Russian assault, but this time in a Baltic country, Poland or elsewhere.” (NYT, 02.20.25.)
• "What's happening is a serious challenge to the foundation of the post-World War II world order," said Chuck Hagel, the former Republican senator turned defense secretary in the Obama administration. "I've never felt so concerned about the future of this country and this world as I am now." (WSJ, 02.19.25)

Footnotes

1. The Trump administration initially proposed Ukraine provide the U.S. government with 50% of the revenue from some of its key resources, including minerals, oil, gas and ports a week ago, according to a draft document reviewed by ABC News and a Ukrainian official familiar with the matter.
2. In an unsubstantiated claim in his post Feb. 19, Trump said: “Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is ‘MISSING’.” “A modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle,” Trump wrote. (FT, 02.19.25, MT/AFP, 02.19.25, Bloomberg, 02.16.25) According to a U.S. State Department report from January, Ukraine has received $65.9 billion in American military aid since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Another $69.2 billion in military assistance was sent in the period after Moscow first backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. (MT/AFP, 02.19.25)
3. According to a poll by Ukraine’s Socis, some 16% of Ukrainians would vote for Zelenskyy if elections were held this month. Leading the pack of potential candidates is former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi with 27.2%, according to Socis.
4. Russia is about 28 times larger than Ukraine in terms of land area, and it also has much larger shelf areas and territorial waters.
5. Rubio and Lavrov had also agreed to ongoing cooperation toward economic and investment opportunities, according to CBS.
6. For a timeline of the disupute between Trump’s team and Zelenskyy’s team, see this Axios story.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo Official State Department photo by Freddie Everett.