Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Feb. 18 update: Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands) in the past month, and in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 1 square mile.  The rate of the Russian advance may have slowed down over the past few weeks, but it is still nearly five times higher this winter than last. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian negotiators discussed steps toward ending the war as Trump and Zelenskyy engaged in a war of words.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of Feb. 18, 2025)¹

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory.

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +27,089 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. states of Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire combined).²
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +43,714 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Virginia.)
• In past month (Jan. 15–Feb. 18, 2025): Russia gained 190 square miles. Area roughly equivalent to about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands.³ Our analysis of ISW’s data indicates that in the current winter (2024–25), Russia’s monthly rate of advance declined from November 2024 (259 square miles) to December 2024 (110 square miles) before rebounding modestly in January 2025 (132 square miles). Overall, this winter, Russian armed forces still advanced nearly five times faster on average than in the winter of 2023–24.
• In past week: Russia gained 39 square miles, the equivalent of 1½ Manhattan islands. 
  • Ukraine lost 1 square mile in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–January 2025. (Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties

• Russia: More than 700,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.⁴ 48,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.⁵ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 388 killed.
• Ukraine: 12,500 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁶

• Russia: 20,382 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 11,819
  • Aircraft: 305
  • Naval vessels: 22⁷
• Ukraine: 7,853 lost. 
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 3,933
  • Aircraft: 183
  • Naval vessels: 35⁸

Citizens displaced

• Russia: 800,000 emigrated for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
• Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
  • Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
  • International refugees: 6.5 million.

Economic impact⁹

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.6% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01093 U.S. dollars. -8% since invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 17.42%¹⁰
• Ukraine’s negative economic growth: -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia:  0.02409 U.S. dollars. -27% since invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.7%

Infrastructure

• Russia: A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
• Ukraine: 64%, or 36 out of 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied, Ukraine relies for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls.

Popular support

• Russia: 61% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. This map includes the front line as of May 24, 2024, to illustrate changes to the frontline since Russia's summer 2024 offensive. 
2. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of Feb. 18, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,248 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,339 square miles), which constituted 18.6% of Ukrainian territory, and which is roughly equivalent in area to the U.S. state of Virginia. 
3. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 461 square kilometers (178 square miles) in Ukraine, the equivalent of about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands, according to a Feb. 18, 2025 estimate by the Economist.
4. According to Donald Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed.
5. According to Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.
6. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. 
7. Not being updated as of 2025.
8. Not being updated as of 2025.
9. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Investing.com, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
10. Not being updated as of 2024.

*This card is being produced by RM staff.