6 Things to Know

1. Vladimir Putin hosted Steve Witkoff to discuss Ukraine and, possibly, Iran, but so far details of the meeting, which was not announced in advance and which was not followed by any media opportunities, have been scarce in the public domain. Putin hosted Wiktoff in St. Petersburg on April 11 in what became their third meeting to explore ways Russia and the U.S. could move toward putting an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as well as, possibly, the Iran issue, but as of 4:00 p.m. (UTC−05:00), no details were reported on either what exactly the two discussed or whether and what the outcomes of the four-hour meeting may have produced. Prior to the meeting, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned reporters that it was unlikely to produce “decisive results.”¹ At the beginning of the meeting, Peskov said “the negotiation process itself is a closed process,” making clear that the sides were not going to reveal details to the public. Indeed, after the meeting was over, neither Putin nor Wiktoff made any public comments, with Trump’s envoy leaving the venue. Commenting on the contents of the talks after the meeting was over, Peskov only said that the talks focused on “aspects of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.” According to pro-Kremlin Russian political expert Sergei Markov, however, Putin and Wiktoff also discussed Iran’s nuclear program, which is something that Witkoff is to discuss during the next leg of his trip on April 12 in Oman. Unlike Putin’s previous two meetings with Witkoff in Moscow,² Russian TV showed the beginning of the meeting, which took place in the Boris Yeltsin presidential library. The footage featured Putin and Wiktoff approaching each other in one of the library’s halls, smiling and shaking hands, with Wiktoff also placing his right hands on his heart. Prior to the meeting with Putin, in which Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov and his foreign investment envoy Kiril Dmitriev also participated,³ Witkoff held a separate meeting on April 11 with Dmitriev. The two have earlier met for talks in Saudi Arabia and then in the U.S.⁴ After the April 4 talks in Washington, Dmitriev was asked to take a message back to Putin that the U.S. “needs to know whether you’re serious about peace,” according to Marco Rubio as Trump grew impatient with Putin over the lack of momentum on negotiations toward a ceasefire.⁵ In his latest comments on the need to end the war, Trump wrote on TruthSocial on April 11: “Russia has to get moving.”
2. U.S. and Russian delegations led by Russia’s new ambassador to the United States, Alexander Darchiyev and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe Sonata Coulter, respectively, claimed progress after meeting in Istanbul on April 10 for a second round of talks aimed at normalizing the operations of their diplomatic missions. At the meeting the U.S. delegation reiterated concerns about the current Russian policy prohibiting the U.S. Embassy in Moscow from employing local staff. In his turn, Darchiyev stated that the United States and Russia discussed and agreed to measures to facilitate the movement of diplomats and accelerate the granting of diplomatic visas, according to ISW. He also stated that the Russian delegation prioritized discussions about the return of confiscated Russian diplomatic property. While the talks were supposed to be focused on diplomatic missions only, the Russian delegation was also to ask the U.S. to lift sanctions against its flagship airline Aeroflot to resume direct flights with America, according to Reuters.
3. Russia gained 113 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Nantucket island) in the past month, though its overall pace of advance declined this week, according to the April 9, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Last week's gain of 47 square miles (March 25–April 1) was followed April 2–8 by a gain of only 29 square miles, according to the card. This week, Ukraine again continued its fighting withdrawal from Kursk, giving up control of only a single square mile of territory there. At the same time, both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian forces were operating in the neighboring Belgorod region of Russia this week, according to the card. The deceleration of the Russian army’s pace of weekly gains in Ukraine contrasts with Putin’s recent claim that the Russian armed forces are “set to finish them [Ukrainian forces] off.” Putin made this claim even though, as RM staff estimated in a recent news digest, it would take the Russian forces 15 years or more at their recent rate just to capture the entire regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, if the Russian forces were to focus only on these four regions. The gap between Putin’s claim and actual progress on the battlefield may have several causes. One may be that Russia was consolidating its forces in preparation for a major renewed offensive. Another, which may have been overlooked, is Putin’s desire to repeat his success in misleading Trump⁶ on the situation on key parts of the Russian-Ukrainian frontline. If key members of the Trump team take Putin’s most recent claims of imminent victory as fact, that would logically change the administration’s bargaining position in ceasefire or peace negotiations, and it would represent a smart, cheap, low-risk strategy to gain more from a favorable shift in the U.S. position through disinformation than through military achievements on the battlefield.*
4. Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is stepping down following increasing policy disagreements with Donald Trump’s administration, people familiar with her decision told FT. Her departure also comes amid a deterioration in her working relationship with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the people said. Ukrainian officials said they saw Brink as being too critical of them, particularly of the country’s efforts to root out entrenched corruption, according to FT.
5. The price for Brent fell to a four-year low of below $60 a barrel this week after China and the U.S. escalated their tariff war⁷ and the OPEC+ group pledged to boost output next month, according to Bloomberg. However, the plunge won’t be a game changer for Russia’s ability to finance its war machine as rising revenue from non-energy sectors and rainy-day reserves help offset losses, this news agency estimated. While Russia’s National Wealth Fund has slimmed down since the start of the invasion, it’s still sufficient to make up any shortfall in oil revenue for the next 18–24 months should Russia’s crude cost around $50 a barrel, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics.
6. The share price of JPMorgan’s EMEA Securities Trust, formerly JPMorgan Russian Securities, trades at five times its net asset value (NAV), having nearly tripled in the last six months, according to investment writer Max King’s estimate published by British weekly investment magazine MoneyWeek.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• For Ukrainians, perpetual Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is a worst-case scenario. It means Ukraine will continue to lose energy the plant once provided, while spending its limited reserves of electricity to keep the reactors cool and avoid a catastrophic nuclear disaster. (WP, 04.07.25)
• Recent announcements by Russian nuclear officials that they will extend the runtimes of several Chernobyl-style RBMK nuclear reactors shed light on the difficulties Moscow is experiencing while trying to bring newer reactors online. With supply lines tripped up by sanctions and Moscow’s economy oriented toward its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, progress to replace these dinosaurs of the civilian nuclear age is plodding. But continued reliance on aging technology made infamous by the world’s worst nuclear accident is also making Russia’s neighbors nervous. (Bellona, April 2024)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The North Koreans now have sustained around 5,000 casualties, with a third of those killed in action, according to one Western official. North Korean soldiers have been among the most valuable on the battlefield, as better integration with Russian forces and superior tactics combined with their endurance, Ukrainian soldiers and analysts said. (WSJ, 04.08.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran has sent a “generous and wise” proposal for indirect talks with the U.S. about its nuclear program that could involve Oman as a mediator, Iranian officials said. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants direct discussions with the Islamic Republic over a new nuclear deal to replace the one that he abandoned during his first term. (Bloomberg, 04.07.25)
  • Top Iranian officials pressed the country’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, arguing that the risk of war with the United States and the worsening economic crisis could topple the regime. Iran’s powerful allies, Russia and China, have also encouraged Iran to resolve its nuclear standoff with the United States through negotiations. The three countries have held two meetings in Beijing and Moscow recently to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. (NYT, 04.11.25)
• Lawmakers in Russia’s lower-house State Duma on April 8 ratified a 20-year strategic partnership treaty with Iran, deepening military and political ties between the two countries. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25) The treaty does not include a clause for mutual military aid in case of aggression.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media that U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had arrived on April 11 in St. Petersburg on his way to high-level talks with Tehran over Iran's nuclear program scheduled for April 12 in Oman. Peskov did not say whether Iran or other topics were on the table. (RFE/RL, 04.11.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the U.S. for its muted reaction to a Russian missile strike that killed at least 18, including nine children last week. In a social-media post April 5, Zelenskyy listed the children killed by the ballistic missile strike April 4 in the central Ukrainian city of Kryviy Rih, from a three-year-old called Tymofiy to 17-year-old Nikita. “Unfortunately, the reaction of the U.S. Embassy was an unpleasant surprise,” Zelenskyy wrote. “Such a powerful country, such a powerful nation—and such a weak reaction. They are afraid even to say the word ‘Russia,’ speaking about a missile that killed children.” The United Nations said it was the largest verified loss of children's lives in a single incident since Russia's invasion in February 2022. (WSJ, 04.09.25, WSJ, 04.05.25)
• A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported on April 8 that Russian sources published footage of two soldiers of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division executing a wounded Ukrainian soldier near Katerynivka (northeast of Lyman) recently on an unspecified date. (ISW, 04.10.25)
• Ukrainian soldiers clambered from a ruined house at gunpoint—one with arms raised in surrender to the Russian troops—and lay face-down in the early spring grass. Two drones—one Ukrainian and one Russian—recorded the scene from high above the southern Ukrainian village of Piatykhatky. The Ukrainian drone video, which AP obtained from European military officials, shows soldiers with Russian uniform markings raising their weapons and shooting each of the four Ukrainians in the back with such ferocity that one man was left without a head. (AP, 04.10.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities on April 10 accused Ukrainian troops of killing nine civilians in a Kursk region village that was under Ukrainian occupation until last month. “It was established that Ukrainian servicemen purposefully shelled residential buildings in the village of Makhnovka in the Sudzhansky district no later than March 2025,” Russia’s Investigative Committee said. It was not immediately possible to verify the Investigative Committee’s claims. (MT/AFP, 04.10.25)
• Oleg Orlov, co-founder of the Russian rights group Memorial, says advocates know at least 1,672 Ukrainian civilians are in Moscow’s custody. (AP, 04.06.25.)
• The Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia is home to some 150,000 people who have been displaced from other parts of the country, and these residents comprise nearly a quarter of the city's population. (RFE/RL, 04.08.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials will not face prosecution while in office under a future Western tribunal for the war in Ukraine, Euronews reported April 10, citing anonymous EU officials. The special court, which is expected to be based in The Hague, aims to try Russia’s leadership for the crime of aggression but will not hold trials in absentia—seen as a compromise among the countries involved. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• On April 10, Harry, the younger son of British King Charles III, made an unannounced visit to the city of Lviv in western Ukraine, where he toured a rehabilitation facility for military and civilian victims of the conflict. He spoke with patients and staff members. (NYT, 04.11.25)
• A survey conducted by the research project OutRush that surveyed some 8,500 Russian émigrés in more than 100 countries from July to November, before cease-fire talks began, showed that only a small share planned to move back to Russia if the war ended. While the survey is not representative of all Russian émigrés, it showed that about 40% of poll respondents said they would consider returning if they saw democratic changes in Russia.  (NYT, 04.06.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russian gained 113 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Nantucket island) in the past month, though its overall pace of advance declined this week, according to the April 9, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Last week's gain of 47 square miles (March 25–April 1) was followed April 2–8 by a gain of only 29 square miles, according to the card. This week Ukraine again continued its fighting withdrawal from Kursk, giving up control of only a single square mile of territory there. At the same time, both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian forces were operating in the neighboring Belgorod region of Russia this week, according to the card.(RM, 04.09.25)⁸
• As of April 10, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,545 square kilometers (43,454 square miles), which constituted 18.64% of Ukraine’s territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map.
  • The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has been steadily declining since November 2024, in part due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks in eastern Ukraine. The U.K. Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported April 5 that Russian forces advanced 143 square kilometers in Ukraine in March 2025 as Ukrainian forces conducted successful tactical counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction. The U.K. MoD reported that the rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has decreased each month since November 2024, as Russian forces seized roughly 730 square kilometers in November 2024, 393 square kilometers in December 2024, 326 square kilometers in January 2025, and 195 square kilometers in February 2025. (ISW, 04.05.25)⁹
• Russia has launched a daily average of 24.3 missiles and drones at Ukraine since the beginning of their full-scale invasion in 2022. This is more than 25,000 in total. (RFE/RL, 04.10.25)

Friday, April 4, 2025

• On April 4, a missile strike on a residential neighborhood in the city of Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine killed 19 people, including nine children, and wounded 74 others. It damaged the courtyard of an apartment block, and emergency medical workers found some of the wounded in a playground, videos released by Ukraine’s emergency services showed. Russia’s ministry of defense said the missile hit a gathering of Ukrainian and foreign military personnel. (NYT, 04.06.25)

Sunday, April 6, 2025

• Russian forces conducted the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine in nearly a month on the night of April 5 and 6. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that preliminary data states that Russian forces launched nine Kh-101/Kh-55SM cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft from the airspace over Saratov Oblast; eight Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea; six Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Bryansk Oblast; and 109 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed six Kh-101/Kh-55SM cruise missiles, six Kalibr missiles, one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 40 Shahed drones and that 53 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy and Mykolaiv oblasts and that five Iskander-M ballistic missiles struck Kyiv Oblast. (ISW, 04.05.25)
• Russia's defense ministry April 6 claimed the capture of a village in Ukraine's Sumy region in a rare cross-border advance. "A unit of the North group of forces during offensive actions liberated the village of Basovka in Sumy region," the ministry said in a statement, using the Russian name for the village of Basivka close to the border with Russia's Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 04.06.25)

Monday, April 7, 2025

• Ukrainian officials reported no Russian long-range strikes on April 6-7, breaking a daily pattern since December 2024. (ISW, 04.07.25)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

• Russia's military said April 8 that its forces regained control over one of the last villages in the Kursk region still held by Ukrainian troops. Russia's Defense Ministry said its troops retook control of the village of Guyevo, located near the Ukrainian border and south of the regional hub of Sudzha. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• Zelenskyy said for the first time April 7 that Ukrainian forces are operating in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region. Belgorod borders Ukraine. In his daily address, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s commander in chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, had reported on “our presence in the Kursk region and our presence in the Belgorod region.” (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
  • A number of Russian sources, including pro-war Telegram channels WarGonzo and Severny Veter confirmed the presence of Ukrainian forces in that western Russian region as of April 9, 2025. (RM, 04.09.25)
• Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian troops captured two Chinese citizens fighting for Russia, the first time its nationals were taken prisoner in the three-year war. He accused Russia of dragging China into the war and alleged that Beijing knew dozens of its citizens had been recruited to fight for Moscow. He said he’d instructed Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to immediately reach out to his counterpart in Beijing about the incident. (Bloomberg, 04.08.25, MT/AFP, 04.10.25)
  • At least 51 Chinese citizens enlisted in Russia’s military via a Moscow recruitment center between June 2023 and May 2024, per iStories’ data. Analysts suggest economic motives drive volunteers, not official policy. The findings highlight foreign fighters’ role in Russia’s Ukraine campaign amid Beijing’s neutral stance. (iStories, 04.11.25)
  • There is no proof that the Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in Ukraine are state-supported. It is no surprise, however, that they are there. Chinese fighters on both sides in Ukraine have been posting videos of their exploits on social media throughout the war. Those who fight for Russia have said they go seeking thrills and cash. (The Economist, 04.11.25)
  • China denied any military involvement in Ukraine, after Kyiv said it had captured two Chinese men in the country's east. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said April 9 China was still trying to confirm with Ukraine details of the capture of the two Chinese citizens who Ukrainian authorities said were fighting for the Russian military. But he denied Zelenskyy's assertion that more Chinese have joined the Russian force. (WSJ, 04.09.25, MT/AFP, 04.09.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Kyiv's claims that the Ukrainian army had allegedly captured several Chinese citizens in the special military operation zone. (TASS, 04.09.25)
• Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, has confirmed the existence of a joint U.S.-Ukrainian command center in Wiesbaden, Germany, where Kyiv’s military operations were planned in coordination with Western allies. “There was a lot of talk about Wiesbaden last week,” Zaluzhnyi wrote in a Facebook post. “This command center truly became our secret weapon with our partners for planning operations and identifying the resources needed to carry them out. And I’ll lift the veil a bit on how it came to be.” According to Zaluzhnyi, the center was originally established in April 2022 in Stuttgart to coordinate the rapidly growing flow of military assistance to Ukraine. It later moved to Wiesbaden, where its role evolved. (Meduza, 04.08.25)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

• Russian forces launched an offensive into northeastern Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions several days ago, Ukraine’s commander in chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky claimed in an interview published April 9. Speaking on the same day, however, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko, said: "The Russians have indeed been active in the direction of Sumy and Kharkiv regions for quite some time now. But it is definitely impossible to talk about an offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv. These are completely different things,” NV.ua  reported. (RM, 04.09.25)
  • Syrskyi stated that there are currently 623,000 Russian military personnel fighting against Ukraine. Syrskyi stated that Russian forces are "increasing the number" of personnel in Ukraine by 8,000 to 9,000 new personnel per month through contract recruitment and that the Russian force grouping fighting against Ukraine increased from about 603,000 on Jan. 1, 2025, to 623,000 just over three months later. (ISW, 04.09.25)
  • Russian forces continue to marginally advance in the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border area, but the Russian force grouping in the area will likely be unable to launch a major offensive operation against Sumy City in the near term without receiving significant reinforcements. The Russian military command is likely attempting to form a buffer zone along the international border in Sumy Oblast, although Russian commanders may intend to press further into Sumy Oblast and towards Sumy City in the future. (ISW, 04.09.25)
• Syrskyi spoke about Ukraine's efforts to further develop its tactical and long-range drone capabilities. Syrskyi stated that Ukraine has developed long-range strike drones with ranges of over 1,700 kilometers and noted that a Ukrainian drone recently struck a Russian Tu-22M3 long range bomber worth $100 million as it landed at a Russian airbase after a combat operation. Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have also developed tactical fiber-optic strike drones with a range of up to 20 kilometers (ISW, 04.09.25)
• A Russian drone attack on the Ukrainian cities of Dnipro, Kharkiv and Kramatorsk late on April 8 wounded more than two dozen people and damaged multiple residential buildings, local officials said. (RFE/RL, 04.09.25)
• Russia’s military said April 9 that its air defense systems destroyed 158 Ukrainian drones across nearly a dozen regions and the Black Sea overnight. Authorities in at least three regions, including one not mentioned in the Russian Defense Ministry’s morning briefing, said Ukrainian drones targeted military sites or nearby locations. (MT/AFP, 04.09.25)
• Russian military leaders fear mass troop departures post-war, enforcing indefinite contracts under Putin’s 2022 mobilization decree. Analysts predict 80% could leave if fighting stops, citing burnout and distrust. (iStories, 04.09.25)
• Bohdan Krotevych, who quit as the chief of staff of the Azov brigade in February partly so he could speak out, said he believed that Syrskyi “must go” and Ukraine’s military leadership must be shaken up. The veteran complained in an interview that Syrskyi and the existing leadership were engaged in “manual micro-management of the whole army” and highlighted orders given to soldiers and units forcing them to rest and base too close to the front. (The Guardian, 04.09.25)

Thursday, April 10, 2025

• Ukraine’s Air Force reported that air defenses shot down 85 of the 145 Russian drones launched across the country overnight. Another 49 crashed without causing damage. (Meduza, 04.10.25)
• On April 10, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Oleksandropil in the Donetsk region, north east of Pokrovsk (RM, 04.11.25)
  • Pavlo Palisa, a deputy head of Zelenskyy's office said he expected Russia to step up its assaults later this month and in May. The official said he thought Russia would focus its offensive push on the eastern city of Pokrovsk, but could also push around the eastern fronts near Kupiansk and Lyman as well as the southeastern fronts of Zaporizhzhia and Novopavlivka. "The absolute priority, in my opinion, will now be on the Pokrovsk direction," he said. (Reuters, 04.10.25)
• Since 2022, the number of Ukrainian drone manufacturers has risen from four to more than 500 with capacity to produce 5mn units a year, according to Tskhakaia. With sufficient funding that could rise to 10mn, he says. (FT, 04.10.25)

Friday, April 11, 2025

• Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on a civilian infrastructure facility in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, according to Serhiy Lysak, head of the regional military administration. A 42-year-old man was killed, and eight others were wounded, Lysak reported. (Meduza, 04.11.25)
• Lt. Gen. Ivan Havryliuk has resigned as the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine under Rustem Umerov’s leadership. Announcing his decision, Havryliuk did not provide specific reasons or further details about his departure. Appointed May 17, 2024, he was instrumental in coordinating defense procurement initiatives. The resignation comes just a month after the Ukrainian government appointed Havryliuk and Stanislav Haider to the Supervisory Board of the Defense Procurement Agency. Haider previously focused on institutional development and anti-corruption efforts within the ministry while Havirlyuk coordinated procurement. (Ukrainska Pravda, 04.11.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, April 5, 2025

• Ukraine's European partners continued preliminary technical discussions about a possible future peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. Delegations from the British and French general staffs met with Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military leaders April 4 and 5 in Kyiv to discuss details about how the first contingent of partner state forces could deploy to Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated that the meetings resulted in "tangible details" about this possible deployment, established Ukraine's needs and identified geographical vulnerabilities that may require support. (ISW, 04.05.25)

Sunday, April 6, 2025

• Zelenskyy hailed "tangible progress" on a potential peacekeeping force after meeting with French and British military chiefs, shortly after he called out Washington for what he termed a "weak" response to the latest Russian air strike that killed nine children. "There is tangible progress and the first details on how the security contingent of partners can be deployed," Zelenskyy said. (RFE/RL, 04.06.25)
• Crews from two Ukrainian Navy minehunting vessels are training with the Royal Navy in Britain in preparation of a future mission to clear explosives from the Black Sea. (RFE/RL, 04.06.25)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

• Britain’s defense minister on April 10 urged military leaders from around 30 countries to press ahead with plans to deploy troops to Ukraine to police any future peace agreement with Russia. The meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels was the first between defense ministers representing the so-called coalition of the willing. John Healey, Britain’s defense minister, opening the meeting said, “We must put more pressure on [Russia’s] President Putin to end his war.” He said 200 military planners from 30 countries were working to develop plans for deepening European involvement in Ukraine. (WP, 04.10.25)
  • The “coalition of the willing” led by the U.K. and France to help secure Ukraine following a possible ceasefire is stalling after failing to obtain any firm commitments from the White House on providing security guarantees, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 04.09.25)

Thursday, April 10, 2025

• Zelenskyy stated April 9 that Ukraine recently proposed to the United States that Ukraine purchase "30 to 50 billion" (likely USD) worth of air defense and weapons systems from the United States and that Ukraine is prepared to purchase these systems itself—either through direct payment to the United States or through the fund established by the potential U.S.-Ukrainian minerals deal. Zelenskyy stated that he recently told Trump that Ukraine wants to buy at least 10 air defense systems to "help [Ukraine] after the end of the war" and that Ukraine will consider the provision of these air defense and weapons systems as a "security guarantee." (ISW, 04.10.25)
• European defense ministers held fresh talks April 10 on the potential deployment of troops to secure any Ukraine ceasefire, but there were more questions than answers as U.S. peace efforts with Russia stall. Britain and France are spearheading discussions among a "coalition of the willing" of 30 countries looking to shore up any deal Trump might strike. (AFP, 04.11.25)
  • "What is the potential mission, what is going to be the goal?" asked Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans. "What is the mandate? What would do we do in the different scenarios, for example, if there would be any escalation regarding Russia?" he added. (AFP, 04.11.25)
• The U.K., Germany and Norway will help fund the delivery of hundreds of thousands of drones to Ukraine. Britain and Norway unveiled a joint £450 million ($580 million) package from existing funding pots at a gathering of Ukraine’s supporters chaired by Britain and Germany in Brussels, according to a statement from Britain’s Ministry of Defense. (Bloomberg, 04.10.25)

Friday, April 11, 2025

• The Ukraine Defense Contact Group pledged a record €21 billion ($22.5 billion) in military aid during its 27th meeting in Brussels. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey announced the commitment. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended virtually, as did Zelenskyy and several other ministers. It was the 27th meeting of the group. (The Guardian, 04.11.25, NYT, 04.11.25)
  • The U.K. and Norway added a £450 million ($588 million) package. U.K. defense secretary John Healey said the total of £4.5bn to be spent on military support for Ukraine by U.K. this year, while Germany supplied 30 Patriot missiles. Germany revealed long-term plans at the meeting to support Kyiv with more than 1,100 ground surveillance radars and additional IRIS-T air defense missile systems. In addition to long-term pledges, Ukraine will receive four more IRIS-T systems plus 300 guided missiles and 100 ground surveillance radars this year, Pistorius said.¹⁰ (The Guardian, 04.11.25, Korrespondent.net, 04.11.25, DPA, 04.11.25) We could not immediately find information on the duration of this aid.
  • Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized Europe’s role in arming Ukraine, citing the €21 billion military aid pledge from EU partners. He noted Europe’s increased responsibility in defense support while positioning the U.S. as Kyiv’s key ally focused on peace efforts. Umerov praised the United States as Ukraine’s “prime partner” and said that Hegseth’s participation “means that U.S. is continuing its security assistance and is beside us.” (NYT, 04.11.25, Korrespondent.net, 04.11.25)
• Umerov announced a new Electronic Warfare (EW) coalition during the Ramstein meeting, joined by 11 nations including Ukraine. The coalition will focus on procuring EW equipment, training specialists, and developing doctrines to counter Russian electronic threats. The initiative aims to strengthen NATO-Ukraine collaboration in neutralizing adversarial jamming and surveillance systems. (RBC Ukraine, 04.11.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios. (Axios, 04.11.25)
• The European Union hasn’t spoken with the Trump administration about any sanctions relief for Russia as part of a ceasefire deal, according to the bloc’s top envoy on the topic. “We have not yet had any discussion with the Americans about the issue of sanctions,” David O’Sullivan, the EU’s top sanctions official, said. (Bloomberg, 04.07.25)
• The Russian government is developing criteria under which foreign companies that exited the country after the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be allowed to return. Officials are drafting baseline requirements for reentry, including: the company continued paying salaries to employees prior to its exit from the Russian market; it has no outstanding debts related to wages, taxes, or other mandatory payments; neither the company nor any affiliated entities provided financial support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so-called “foreign agents,” “undesirable” organizations or similar groups. Companies would also need to receive approval from a government subcommission. (Meduza, 04.10.25)
  • Putin on April 7 signed a law banning advertising through organizations designated as “undesirable” or “extremist,” a move that will likely steer businesses away from promoting their products and services on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
  • Russia’s Central Bank has not received any requests from Western businesses to return to the Russian market, despite media speculation of renewed interest in the country, Elvira Nabiullina said April 8. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• Russian authorities have asked Washington to lift sanctions against its flagship airline Aeroflot to resume direct flights with the United States but have not yet received an answer, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said April 11. “We made this offer at the meeting in [Saudi Arabia] more than a month ago,” Lavrov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• A sanctioned ex-Russian governor of a city in Crimea was found guilty of flouting the financial restrictions by a London jury, becoming the first person criminally convicted for breaching the U.K.’s Russia sanction regime. A jury found Dmitrii Ovsiannikov, the Governor of Sevastopol between 2016 and 2019 guilty on April 9, according to the National Crime Agency. He stood trial along with his wife and brother. They were accused of buying a Mercedes Benz and paying thousands of pounds for his children’s private school fees while under sanctions. They all denied the charges. (Bloomberg, 04.10.25)
• Sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has petitioned London’s High Court to force CT Group’s intelligence unit to reveal the source of an allegedly forged document used in litigation against ex-Russian deputy finance minister Vladimir Chernukhin. A 2023 court ruling called the valuation report a deliberate forgery harming Deripaska. The case underscores sanctioned individuals’ access to U.K. courts, with CT Group—implicated in prior document disputes but not found liable—denying misconduct. Deripaska’s legal team operates under U.K. sanctions exemptions. (FT, 04.05.25)
• Finland’s parliament unanimously banned Russian citizens from real estate purchases, citing national security risks and potential hostile influence. (Korrespondent.net, 04.11.25)
• A good number of Asian companies continue to conduct business in Russia, maintaining operations despite sustained international sanctions. Japan Tobacco, which is 33% owned by the Japanese government, is still active in Russia, according to a list maintained by Yale CELI. Chinese firms have also deepened their presence in Russia, according to a list maintained by the Kyiv School of Economics. One prominent example is Great Wall Motor Co., which doubled its revenue in Russia in 2023. Haier, another Chinese manufacturer, already operates at least three factories in Russia and in mid-2022, announced plans to build a fourth in Naberezhnye Chelny. Haier’s revenue jumped more than 50% in 2023. Indian companies like Bajaj Auto and Dr. Reddy’s Labs, which are household names, also continue to operate in Russia. (BNE/MT, 04.11.25)
• For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Less than 48 hours after the April 2 meeting in Washington, Wiktoff told Trump that the fastest way to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine was to support a strategy that would give Russia ownership of four eastern Ukrainian regions it attempted to annex illegally in 2022, according to Reuters. In the meeting with Trump, Gen. Keith Kellogg, the president’s Ukraine envoy, pushed back against Witkoff, Reuters reported. The meeting ended without Trump making a decision to change the U.S. strategy, according to Reuters. (RM, 04.11.25)
  • Trump administration officials are increasingly at odds over how to break the deadlock between Ukraine and Russia, with Witkoff and Kellogg—who favors more direct support for Ukraine—disagreeing on the best course forward, according to the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter and four Western diplomats who are in touch with administration officials. (Reuters, 04.11.25)

Friday, April 4, 2025

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had told a top Kremlin envoy visiting the U.S. that Russia needs to clarify whether it is committed to peace in Ukraine and that the White House expects an answer soon. The Kremlin envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, completed two days of talks with Trump’s Russia negotiator at the White House on April 10, the first high-level bilateral meeting in the U.S. since before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Rubio said that Dmitriev was given a message to take back to Putin that the U.S. “needs to know whether you’re serious about peace.” “Ultimately, Putin will have to make that decision,” Rubio told reporters at a NATO conference in Brussels April 4. “We will know from their answers very soon whether they are serious about proceeding with real peace or whether it’s a delay tactic.” (WSJ, 04.04.25)  
• Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence believes that Kremlin investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev’s main reason for traveling to Washington last week was to lobby the Trump administration to assist with unfreezing Russian assets. (Meduza, 04.04.25)

Saturday, April 5, 2025

• Fresh talks between Russia and the U.S. toward a ceasefire in Ukraine are expected as soon as this week, the Kremlin’s negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said on Russia’s Channel 1. (Bloomberg, 04.05.25)

Monday, April 7, 2025

• Trump on April 7 voiced frustration over ongoing violence in Ukraine as his administration continues to pursue a deal to end the three-year war. “I’m not happy about what’s going on” in Ukraine, Trump told reporters at the White House, saying that “they’re bombing like crazy right now,” even as he claimed the parties were “sort of close” to a deal. Trump did not single out Russia specifically in his comments, but the Russian military has launched a number of deadly strikes against Ukraine over the past week, including an April 4 strike on Kryvyi Rih that killed 14 people. Describing the situation as “not good,” Trump said: “We’re meeting with Russia, we’re meeting with Ukraine and we’re getting sort of close, but I’m not happy with all the bombing that’s gone on in the last week or so.” “It’s horrible. It’s a horrible thing,” he added. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• The Kremlin said April 7 that Putin still supports the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but many unanswered questions remain about how such a truce would be implemented. "Putin does support the idea that a ceasefire is needed, but before that, a whole range of questions has to be answered," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters April 7. "These questions are hanging in the air — so far, no one has answered them," Peskov added, blaming the lack of progress on what he called "the Kyiv regime's uncontrollability." Trump has expressed growing frustration with the slow pace of peace negotiations, telling NBC News last month that he was "pissed off" with Putin. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
• The Kremlin continues to delegitimize Ukraine’s government, with Dmitry Peskov claiming it cannot control alleged “extremist units” driving militarization—a rebrand of Putin’s March 28 false narrative about neo-Nazi control. These assertions support demands for Ukrainian regime change and demilitarization. Russia paused such claims after Trump’s Feb. 12 call but resumed them weeks later. Trump recently criticized Putin’s attacks on Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, threatening sanctions if negotiations fail. The rhetoric aims to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty while framing Moscow’s maximalist war goals as preconditions for peace. (ISW, 04.07.25)

Thursday, April 10, 2025

• "We are making progress. We hope that we are getting relatively close to getting a deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the fighting," Trump said on April 10 during a Cabinet meeting. (Axios, 04.11.25)
• Ukraine has told the U.S. that accepting curbs on the size of its armed forces or on its military's overall readiness would be a red line, a senior Ukrainian official said, as Trump strives to negotiate an end to the war with Russia. "This is a principled position of Ukraine—no one, and certainly not the aggressor country Russia, will dictate to Ukraine what kind of armed forces Ukraine should have," the senior official, Pavlo Palisa, said. Palisa is a deputy head of Zelenskyy's office. (Reuters, 04.10.25)

Friday, April 11, 2025

• Vladimir Putin hosted Steve Witkoff to discuss Ukraine and, possibly, Iran, but so far, details of the meeting, which was not announced in advance and which was not followed by any media opportunities, have been scarce in the public domain. Putin hosted Wiktoff in St. Petersburg on April 11 in what became their third meeting to explore ways Russia and the U.S. could move toward putting an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the Iran issue, but as of 4:00 pm (UTC−05:00), no details were reported on either what exactly the two discussed or whether and what outcomes the four-hour meeting may have produced. Prior to the meeting, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned reporters that it was unlikely to produce “decisive results.” Asked also prior to the meeting if discussions could include setting up a date for Putin and Trump to meet, Peskov said: "Let's see. It depends on what Witkoff has come with." At the beginning of the meeting, Peskov said “the negotiation process itself is a closed process,” making clear that the sides were not going to reveal details to the public. Indeed, after the meeting was over, neither of the two made any public comments, with Wiktoff leaving the venue. Commenting on the contents of talks after the meeting, Peskov only said that the talks focused on “aspects of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.” According to pro-Kremlin Russian political expert Sergei Markov, however, Putin and Wiktoff also discussed Iran’s nuclear program, which is something that Witkoff is to discuss during the next part of his trip on April 12 in Oman. Unlike Putin’s previous two meetings with Witkoff in Moscow, Russian TV showed the beginning of the meeting, which took place in the Boris Yelstin presidential library in St. Petersburg. The footage featured Putin and Wiktoff approaching each other in one of the halls and then shaking hands and smiling, with Wiktoff also placing one hand on his heart. Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov and his foreign investment envoy Kiril Dmitriev participated in the talks. Prior to meeting Putin, Witkoff held a separate meeting April 11 with Dmitriev, with whom Witkoff has previously met for talks in Saudi Arabia and then in the U.S. After the April 4 talks in Washington, Dmitriev was asked to take back a message to Putin that the U.S. “needs to know whether you’re serious about peace,” according to Marco Rubio as Trump grew impatient with Putin over the lack of momentum on negotiations toward a ceasefire. In his latest comments on the need to end the war, Trump wrote on TruthSocial on April 11: “Russia has to get moving.” (RM, 04.11.25)
• The U.K. and France are planning to present Trump with a comprehensive plan for a post-war “reassurance force” in Ukraine that they hope will persuade the U.S. president to commit to security guarantees for Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 04.11.25)
• Speaking about the current situation at the Ramstein group meeting, German defense minister Pistorius – who is expected to retain his job in the next coalition government – says that: “Given Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, we must concede peace in Ukraine appears to be out of reach in the immediate future.” (The Guardian, 04.11.25)
• Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur hinted that Russia could try to secure a more comprehensive deal with the U.S. in the buildup to the Russian Victory Day on May 9. “Exactly this is why we need to speed up the deliveries as quickly as we can,” he said. “I’m reading the signs. … Putin has always been [keen on important] dates,” he said. (The Guardian, 04.11.25)

Great Power Rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• European officials accuse Russia’s GRU of a hybrid warfare campaign using parcel bombs disguised as cosmetics, sex toys, and massage pillows containing homemade explosives (magnesium/nitromethane), triggered by modified tracking devices. Codenamed “Mary” and linked to operative “Warrior,” the plot allegedly tested methods for midair cargo attacks. Devices caused warehouse fires in the UK, Germany, and Poland last summer, with no injuries. The Kremlin dismissed claims as “blind Russophobia,” denying involvement. 19, 20 and 21 in the British city Birmingham, Leipzig in Germany and near the Polish capital Warsaw. (Reuters, 04.05.25)
• Donald Trump risks making a “historical mistake” if his negotiations to end the war in Ukraine result in the U.S. recognizing Russia’s claims to Crimea and other occupied territory, says the Polish government’s adviser on Ukraine. Paweł Kowal, who advises Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Ukraine and heads the Polish parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said in an interview that a “red line” would be crossed for Poland and the rest of central Europe if expanded Russian borders were legally recognized as a result of the invasion of a neighboring country. (FT, 04.06.25)
• The British military has found Russian sensors in seas around the country that it believes were attempting to spy on its nuclear submarines, the Sunday Times reported. The Royal Navy found some devices planted on the sea bed while several washed ashore, the newspaper reported. Military and intelligence chiefs believe they were planted to gather intelligence on Britain's four submarines that carry nuclear missiles." The government also had "credible intelligence" that Russian oligarch-owned superyachts may have been used to conduct underwater reconnaissance, said the report. (MT/AFP, 04.06.25)
• Trump has announced he will seek a $1 trillion budget for the Pentagon, a record-setting number that would mark the highest level of U.S. defense spending since World War II. (Democracynow.org, 04.09.25)
• European allies are urging the U.S. to coordinate on any plans to reduce its military presence on the continent to avoid destabilizing NATO defenses, according to people familiar with the matter. European officials have accepted that Trump’s administration will almost certainly withdraw some of the roughly 80,000 U.S. troops deployed in Europe, including in some of the eastern countries most exposed to the threat from Russia, the people said. (Bloomberg, 04.09.25)
  • General Christopher Donahue, the commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, has announced the relocation of American troops and equipment from a temporary base in Jasionka, Poland, about 30 miles from the Ukrainian border. He said the move was driven by budgetary concerns. Established in 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion, the base has served as a key hub for the delivery of military assistance to Ukraine. (Meduza, 04.09.25)
• The Pentagon believes that growing military-technical cooperation between Russia, China and North Korea complicates the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and threatens U.S. security, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) chief Samuel Paparo said. Paparo also said that "Russia has significantly modernized its Pacific Fleet since 2021 with particular growth of its submarine fleet." (TASS, 04.10.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia is no longer the top export destination for Chinese cars after the nation hiked taxes that affect auto imports and vehicle sales slowed as consumers, perhaps hopeful the conflict in Ukraine may draw to an end, await the return of foreign brands. China’s automobile exports to Russia fell by nearly half year-on-year to 57,592 vehicles in January and February, trailing Mexico, which received 85,997 and the United Arab Emirates at 71,418, data released Wednesday by the China Passenger Car Association show. (Bloomberg, 04.09.25)
• Top European Union officials are making plans to visit China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa have agreed to the summit in Beijing this July. (Bloomberg, 04.10.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin told a meeting on the Strategy for the Development of the Navy on April 11: “Of course, one of the priority tasks is to strengthen the domestic fleet in its key segment of strategic nuclear forces, which serve as the most important guarantee of Russia's security and the maintenance of the global balance. In this regard, of course, I want to note that now the share of modern weapons and equipment in the naval strategic nuclear forces in Russia is already 100 percent. And I emphasize - this figure must be maintained in the future ... I have already mentioned the Perm [submarine], which was launched on March 27 this year, a multipurpose submarine. It became the first submarine armed with hypersonic cruise missiles ‘Zircon.’ This already reminds us that some elements are even appearing in strategic nuclear forces.” (Kremlin.ru, 04.11.25)
• Dmitry Medvedev wrote in his Telegram account “15 years ago, the START III [New START] Treaty was signed in Prague. Unfortunately, it did not reduce the risk of nuclear war. The position of the United States and its allies is to blame. At some point, they decided that it was possible to formally maintain nuclear parity with Russia and at the same time wage an undeclared war against us using unlimited sanctions, and then their own weapons and specialists. This put the world at risk of World War III. Despite the fact that the Biden Administration, a senile man, insisted that there was no risk of a nuclear conflict. This was a cynical lie: the threat had reached its highest level. The Trump Administration at least verbally acknowledges this… The European[s]… do not. On the contrary, they began to shake their meager strategic potentials again. The situation is such that even with a complete cessation of the conflict around the so-called “Ukraine,” nuclear disarmament in the coming decades is impossible. The world will create new, more destructive types of weapons, and more and more countries will acquire nuclear arsenals. How this will end has long been known.” (Medvedev’s Telegram account, 04.08.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Islamic State is regaining strength in Syria, threatening regional stability as experts warn of potential prison breaks freeing 9,000–10,000 fighters and 40,000 family members. U.S. troops doubled to 2,000 in 2024 to counter attacks, which rose from 121 (2023) to 294 (2024). The new Syrian government, led by ex-Al Qaeda affiliate HTS, struggles with sectarian violence and controlling forces. Kurdish-led guards face Turkish-backed militia assaults, risking prison security. Analysts fear ISIS could exploit chaos to revive operations, leveraging propaganda and regional instability. (NYT, 04.09.25)
• Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa has family ties to Russia through his brother and top cabinet appointee, who is married to a Russian businesswoman, the investigative news outlet Agentstvo reported Monday. al-Sharaa appointed his brother, Maher al-Sharaa, as secretary-general to the presidency. Maher al-Sharaa is married to dual Russian-Syrian citizen Tatiana Zakirova. Maher al-Sharaa graduated from the Burdenko Voronezh State Medical University in 2000 and started working in Voronezh in 2013. He reportedly moved to Izmir, Turkey, in July 2022 and served as a health consultant in northern Syria between 2022 and 2023. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• A steady flow of Syrian refugees has started to settle in Russia's Perm region following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad late last year, Russian officials have confirmed. Approximately 150 refugees have arrived in the Perm region from Syria since February, according to local authorities. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• The price for Brent fell to a four-year low of below $60 a barrel this week after China and the U.S. escalated their tit-for-tat trade war and the OPEC+ group pledged to boost output next month. The plunge won’t be a game changer for Russia’s ability to finance its war machine as rising revenue from non-energy sectors and rainy-day reserves help offset losses. While Russia’s National Wealth Fund has slimmed down since the start of the invasion, it’s still sufficient enough to make up any shortfall in oil revenue for the next 18–24 months should Russia’s crude cost around $50 a barrel, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. (Bloomberg, 04.11.24)
  • According to NYT, however, the falling oil prices threaten Russia’s ability to fund its Ukraine war. But the war spending would be the last area to face cuts in Russia’s spending, according to Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian central bank and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. (NYT, WP, 04.10.25)
  • Russia's oil exporting netback, or the price excluding transportation and other costs, for delivery to the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk from Western Siberia this week hit the lowest since June 2023 following a fall on global oil markets. According to Reuters calculations, the netback for West Siberian oil declined on April 8 to 32,759 rubles ($392) per metric ton. (Reuters, 04.11.25)
• Estonia has detained a Russia-linked tanker, marking the Baltic country’s first maritime operation targeting the so-called “shadow fleet” transporting Russian oil in violation of Western sanctions, the Postimees news outlet reported. The tanker, identified as the Kiwala, was reportedly operating under the flag of Djibouti, according to vessel-tracking service MarineTraffic. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• In a development that signals both economic failure and a recalibration of foreign ambitions, Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas giant, has officially exited the Azero gas exploration project in Bolivia. (MT/AFP, 04.10.25)

Climate change:

• Arctic sea ice hit a record low for the end of the region’s winter last month, in a stark sign of how climate change is opening up the North Pole to a geopolitical race for military and energy exploration. March was the fourth consecutive month in which sea ice reached a record low for that calendar period, based on a 47-year satellite record, EU earth observation agency Copernicus reported on Tuesday. Military and commercial vessels, particularly from Russia, are stepping up activity in the region, some of which is expected to be ice-free during summer within a decade, said Rebecca Pincus, former director of the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute. (FT, 04.07.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC News on April 6 that U.S. President Donald Trump did not impose tariffs on Russia because of ongoing negotiations between Moscow and Washington to end the war in Ukraine. "Obviously there are negotiations going on with Russia and Ukraine, and I think the president has made a decision not to conflate the two issues. That doesn't mean that Russia is going to be treated completely differently than any other country," Hassett said. (Meduza, 04.06.25) 
  • Russia’s stock market has suffered its worst week in more than two years in response to Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. The market capitalization of companies listed on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) fell by 2 trillion rubles ($23.7 billion) over just two days, sliding from 55.04 trillion rubles ($651.8 billion) at Wednesday’s close to 53.02 trillion ($627.9 billion) by the end of trading Friday, according to exchange data. The MOEX Russia Index, which tracks 43 of Russia’s largest publicly traded companies, lost 8.05% over the week—its worst performance since late September 2022, when markets were rattled by the Kremlin’s announcement of mass mobilization for the war in Ukraine (MT/AFP, 04.05.25)
  • Central Bank head Nabiullina acknowledged risks. “If this tariff war escalates, as we’re now seeing, it typically leads to a slowdown in global trade and the world economy—and possibly a drop in demand for our energy exports,” Nabiullina said on April 8, as quoted by state media. “That creates risks for us.” (NYT, WP, 04.10.25, (Meduza, 04.09.25)
  • A leaked Central Bank report shows that OPEC’s spare capacity is equal to Russia’s current exports—meaning Russia would have to slash prices to stay competitive. Covering the revenue shortfall would mean dipping into the national rainy-day fund—what’s left of it. It could run dry as early as this year. To rebuild it at lower oil prices, the breakeven oil price in the budget would need to fall to $40 a barrel by 2027. That would mean lower base oil and gas revenues, and likely budget cuts. Under this scenario, Russia’s GDP could shrink by 3–4% this year, followed by another 1–2% drop in 2026. (Meduza, 04.09.25)
  • The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration “demonstrates that Washington no longer considers itself bound by the norms of international trade law,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a televised briefing in Moscow. (MT/AFP, 04.09.25)
• Investment Writer Max King wrote: “The share price of JPMorgan’s EMEA Securities Trust, formerly JPMorgan Russian Securities, trades at five times its net asset value (NAV), having nearly trebled in the last six months. Its Russian investments were written down to zero three years ago, but investors clearly believe that value will return. What do they think they know? Probably more than the armchair pundits.” (MoneyWeek, 04.08.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. and Russian delegations met Thursday in Istanbul for a second round of talks aimed at normalizing the operations of their diplomatic missions. Russia’s new ambassador to the United States, Alexander Darchiyev, and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe Sonata Coulter participated in the talks. The U.S. State Department emphasized this week that the discussions in Istanbul are focused solely on the functioning of diplomatic missions and not on broader political or security issues. (MT/AFP, 04.10.25)
  • The United States and Russia both said that they had made progress toward normalizing the work of their diplomatic missions. (Reuters, 04.11.25)
  • The U.S. Department of State (DoS) stated that the U.S. delegation reiterated concerns about the current Russian policy prohibiting the U.S. Embassy in Moscow from employing local staff. (ISW, 04.10.25)
  • Darchiev stated on April 10 that the United States and Russia agreed to measures to facilitate the movement of diplomats and accelerate the granting of diplomatic visas. Darchiev also stated that the Russian delegation prioritized discussions about the return of confiscated Russian diplomatic property in the United States. (ISW, 04.10.25)
  • Reuters reported on 04.09.25 that at the talks Russia was also to raise the issue of the resumption of direct flights with the U.S. The move would, Darchiev said: "stimulate business and make life easier for ordinary people on both sides of the ocean." (RM, 04.09.25)
• Russian-American citizen Ksenia Karelina, who was imprisoned in Russia for donating $51 to a U.S.-based Ukrainian aid charity, has arrived back in the United States after a prisoner swap for Arthur Petrov, a dual German-Russian citizen who allegedly exported sensitive microelectronics. (RFE/RL, 04.11.25)
  • Witkoff told Putin last month to release Karelina as a sign of good will between the countries, an official said. After the Russians agreed in principle, the official said the CIA began negotiating the deal with Russian intelligence services. The Russians gave the U.S. a list of prisoners they want released and eventually picked Petrov, the U.S. official said. Earlier this month, the director of the CIA John Ratcliffe engaged directly with his Russian intelligence counterpart and they agreed on the exchange, a CIA official said. (Axios, 04.10.25)
  • Officials in Moscow will pursue further prisoner swap talks with the United States following an exchange earlier this week, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) told state media Friday. “Dialogue with the new U.S. administration will certainly continue in various areas, including the issue you mentioned,” SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin told reporters when asked about the possibility of future exchanges. MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
  • The U.S. government is calling on Moscow to release American citizen Stephen Hubbard, who was imprisoned in Russia last year, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said during a press briefing on Thursday. (Meduza, 04.11.25)
• The Trump administration has denied parole to Kseniia Petrova, a Harvard Medical School researcher from Russia who was detained at Boston Logan Airport last week after failing to declare frog embryo samples on her customs form. According to Bloomberg, U.S. authorities claimed Petrova poses a threat to national security. After she was detained, Petrova was sent to an immigration detention center. Her colleagues warn that she is at risk of deportation and fears persecution in Russia due to her opposition to the war in Ukraine. (Meduza, 04.04.25)
• A U.S. citizen awaiting trial in Moscow has been forcibly admitted to a psychiatric hospital, Russian state media reported Sunday. Joseph Tater, 46, was arrested in August 2024 after being accused of assaulting a police officer during a confrontation with staff at an upmarket hotel in the Russian capital. A Moscow court agreed to admit Tater to a psychiatric hospital non-voluntarily after a medical evaluation on March 15, Russian state news agency TASS reported. (AP/WP, 04.06.25)
• A court in northwestern Russia’s Pskov region ordered a U.S. citizen to be jailed for 14 days after he was accused of writing pro-Ukrainian messages on his phone, regional media reported Monday. Alexander Antonov, who also holds Russian and Ukrainian citizenship, was alleged to have written the phrase Slava Ukraini (“Glory to Ukraine”) somewhere on his phone, according to the exiled news outlet Pskovskaya Gubernia. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
• A Russian court has reduced the prison sentence of U.S. Army Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, who was convicted of threatening to kill his girlfriend and stealing from her, state media reported Monday. Black was sentenced in June 2024 to three years and nine months by a court in Vladivostok, but an appeals court cut the sentence to three years and two months,. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
• The Trump administration has failed to disburse congressionally approved funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the news network originally set up to counter Soviet propaganda during the Cold War, despite a judge's order to keep it operating, according to court filings and officials at the news organization. (NYT, 04.07.25)
• A Soyuz spacecraft carrying an American astronaut and two Russian cosmonauts lifted off Tuesday from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan en route to the International Space Station. Onboard are Russian cosmonauts Sergey Ryzhikov and Alexey Zubritsky, as well as NASA astronaut Jonny Kim. Roscosmos said the crew will conduct 50 scientific experiments before returning to Earth on Dec. 9. Roscosmos said about 2,500 tourists watched the launch in person—a record for the site. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• President Vladimir Putin on Monday congratulated Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin for breaking the NHL’s all-time goals record, calling the achievement a source of celebration in Russia. Ovechkin, 39, scored his 895th career goal on Sunday, surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s long-standing record that had gone unchallenged for 26 years. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia is reaping the benefit of a pre-war gold-buying spree that’s helped offset roughly a third of the frozen assets in its rainy-day fund. The value of Russia’s gold reserves has surged by 72%, or $96 billion, since the beginning of 2022, according to central bank data. The physical amount of gold in the Bank of Russia’s coffers hasn’t changed significantly over the last three years, remaining at around 75 million ounces, data shows. (Bloomberg, 04.07.25) See the section on exports of energy from CIS for estimates of how the decline in oil prices, provoked by Trump’s tariffs, could affect Russia’s spending.
• A string of nationalizations have accelerated since Vladimir Putin started his full-scale war in Ukraine, even as he is also making overtures to western companies lured by the prospect of Donald Trump rekindling economic ties with Russia. Since the beginning of the war, Russia’s prosecutor-general has opened cases against more than 85 Russian businesses. Through this process, the prosecutor-general claims it has already returned 2,400 billion rubles ($27.9 billion) to the state. Arkady Rotenberg and his brother Boris, Putin’s childhood friends, have been among some of the prime beneficiaries of the prosecutor-general’s seizures. A representative for the Rotenbergs pointed to a statement from Arkady Rotenberg in January that he was not interested in Domodedovo [airport] and declined to comment further. (FT, 04.10.25)
  • A court in Russia’s Leningrad region has approved a request from the Prosecutor General’s Office to transfer 55% of shares in the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal to the state, according to reports from Interfax, RBC, and Kommersant. The lawsuit was filed in January. Its other defendants included three offshore companies registered in Cyprus—Almont Holdings, Novomor, and Tujunga Enterprises—which are owned by the children of Dmitry Skigin, the late former owner of the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal. The claim was based on the fact that the beneficiaries are foreign nationals, who are barred from owning strategically important companies in Russia. (Meduza, 04.08.25)
  • Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has filed a lawsuit seeking to transfer the assets of Sayanskkhimplast—the country’s largest producer of PVC—to state ownership, Kommersant reported. The lawsuit names Viktor Kruglov, the company’s de facto owner and a former lawmaker from the Irkutsk region, along with his wife, Irina; their children, Anna and Alexander; and Nikolai Melnik, a former deputy governor of the region and one-time CEO of the company. Prosecutors accuse Kruglov of using his position to divert state assets for personal use. (Meduza, 04.07.25)
• Russian authorities banned cryptocurrency mining in the southern part of Siberia’s Irkutsk region until 2031, under a decree signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and published Monday. (MT/AFP, 04.08.25)
• The number of employees at Russia’s largest banks grew by 5.5% in 2024, according to an analysis by Kommersant based on data from financial institutions. At Sberbank, staffing rose by a modest 3.9%. However, other major institutions—including Gazprombank, T-Bank, DOM.RF Bank, and MTS Bank—reported increases of between eight and 10%. (Meduza, 04.07.25)
• Russia’s sole domestic television manufacturer Kvant has discontinued production due to low demand and high costs, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Wednesday, citing the CEO’s letter to shareholders. (MT/AFP, 04.09.25)
• President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed a law banning advertising through organizations designated as “undesirable” or “extremist,” a move that will likely steer businesses away from promoting their products and services on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
• A court in Far East Russia has denied a request to transfer anti-Putin shaman Alexander Gabyshev from a high-security psychiatric facility to a general hospital for the third time in two years, his lawyer said Friday. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• The messaging app Telegram is facing censorship accusations after reportedly removing a popular Russian news channel whose alleged owners face criminal prosecution inside Russia. VChK-OGPU, an anonymously run channel claiming to share insider information from Russia’s security and law enforcement agencies, had 1.1 million subscribers when it was taken down overnight Monday. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)
• Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the graves of soldiers who died fighting for Russia have been regularly vandalized—set on fire, defaced with swastikas, and stripped of military flags. Over the past three years, journalists from Sever.Realii, a division of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, have documented at least 55 such cases. In a new report, they examine what’s happening at the gravesites of those killed in Ukraine. Meduza shares a translation of their investigation. (Meduza, 04.11.25)
• Four out of ten respondents [in Levada Center’s recent survey of Russian public opinion of Russia’s political and economic system] consider the current political system to be the best among political systems, the share of such respondents has increased by 23 percentage points since August 2021. At the same time, the number of those who believe that the best political system was in our country before the 90s (a decrease of 13 percentage points. since August 2021 (peak values)) decreased to a third of the respondents (37%). The share of those who consider democracy to be the best political system, following the model of Western countries, has also decreased (a decrease of 12 percentage points since January 2017), the maximum values for this indicator were recorded in December 1997. (Levada Center, 04.10.25)Machine translated.
• [In a recent Levada Center survey of Russian public opinion on the USSR’s last Secretary General, Mikhail Gorbachev, and the 40^th anniversary of one of his chief political reforms, perestroika], it seems to most respondents that perestroika has brought more harm to Russia (59%), every fifth (20%) holds the opposite opinion.
  • Two-thirds of the respondents (68%) believe that compared to what it was before "perestroika," it has now become easier to freely solve the issues of their religious life, more than half believe that it is now easier to say everything you think freely than before "perestroika" (57%), freely decide whether to participate or not in political life (57%) and join any organizations (56%). Opinion on these issues has changed little in recent years, the peak of ideas that compared to pre-perestroika time in these areas has become easier and freer, fell at the beginning of the [2000s]. Since then, this share has decreased.
  • More often, respondents talk about their negative (45%) or neutral (41%) attitude towards Mikhail Gorbachev. This ratio has changed little since the beginning of measurements. (Levada Center, 04.08.25) Machine translated.

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin told a meeting on the Navy Development Strategy on April 11: “In recent years, we have been implementing a large-scale Navy modernization program. Russian shipyards - from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok - are serially building surface ships and new missile submarines, including the latest Borei-A and Yasen-M projects. Significant funds have been allocated for these purposes. Over the past five years, 49 ships of various classes have been built, and from 2020 to 2024, to this day, four Borei-A strategic submarines and four Yasen-M multipurpose submarines have been commissioned into the Navy. At the same time, it is obvious that the dynamics of the changing situation in the world, the emergence of new challenges, threats, including in maritime areas, and finally, the rapid technological, digital revolution, robotics and the widespread introduction of unmanned systems - all this requires the formation of a new image of the Navy ... I will note that in the coming decade, 8 trillion 400 billion rubles are allocated for the construction of new ships and vessels of the Navy, and these funds must be taken into account when forming the state program for armament.” (Kremlin.ru, 04.11.25)
• See section “Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts” above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian law enforcement agencies have stepped up their targeting of Rusnano, a state company that invested in promising tech projects. For the first time, Anatoly Chubais, one of the architects of Moscow’s 1990s economic reforms and long-time Rusnano chief, is himself coming under direct threat. Until recently, Chubais—who left Russia at the start of the invasion—was seen as untouchable. A Moscow court seized property worth 5.6 billion rubles (about $67 million) belonging to Chubais and seven of his subordinates in a case relating to a company called Plastic Logic and the planned production of flexible tablets back in the late 2000s and early 2010s. (Bell, 04.10.25)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has ordered law enforcement authorities to expel the family of a local man accused of organizing a knife attack on police earlier this week, Russian-language media reported Wednesday. The alleged assailant was shot and killed after injuring two traffic officers on patrol in the Chechen town of Achkhoy-Martan on Monday. The assailant had previously quarreled with one of the officers. (MT/AFP, 04.09.25, Kavkazky Uzel, 04.11.25)

• Forest fires have swept several of Russia’s Siberian and Far East regions over the past week, setting off what is projected to be yet another devastating wildfire season. At least 52 wildfires spanning more than 41,675 hectares were active across Russia on Thursday, the country's Aerial Forest Protection Service reported. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that it was expelling Romania’s military attaché and his deputy in a retaliatory move against the country. In March, Bucharest said it would expel two Russian diplomats over allegations of “interference” in the country’s politics amid tensions over an annulled presidential election. (MT/AFP, 04.09.25)
• A French researcher sentenced by Russia to three years in prison has been transferred to a transit penal colony, his family told AFP on Thursday. Laurent Vinatier, who works for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO, was arrested last summer amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West over the war in Ukraine. He was convicted in October of violating Russia’s “foreign agent” law. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• French border authorities detained an employee of the Russian Foreign Ministry and confiscated her computer and phone, RBC reported Wednesday, citing ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. “Following these demarches, our colleague was eventually allowed to enter France, but she was forced to spend 24 hours in the airport’s border control zone.” The French authorities have not disclosed the reasons for the employee’s detention. The Russian Foreign Ministry warned France of “consequences” over the incident. (Meduza, 04.09.25)
• A court in the North African country of Tunisia has ruled to release 11 Russian citizens who were detained in November on allegations of “terrorism,” Russian state media reported Friday. (MT/AFP, 04.11.25)
• The Japanese Foreign Ministry said in its 2024 annual report that despite strained relations with Russia, it remains committed to signing a peace treaty in hopes of reclaiming the southern Kuril Islands. (Meduza, 04.08.25)
• Russian authorities on Monday designated Japan’s Northern Territories Issue Association as an “undesirable organization,” accusing it of promoting revanchist ideas and undermining Russian sovereignty. (MT/AFP, 04.07.25)

Ukraine:

• Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is stepping down following increasing policy disagreements with President Donald Trump’s administration, according to people familiar with her decision. Her departure also comes amid a deterioration in her working relationship with Zelenskyy, although this was not the reason for her relinquishing the role, the people said. Ukrainian officials said they saw Brink as being too critical of them, particularly on the country’s efforts to root out entrenched corruption. Brink is a career diplomat who was appointed by Trump during his first term to serve as U.S. ambassador to Slovakia. She was later appointed as ambassador to Ukraine by President Joe Biden. (FT, 04.10.25)
• Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said any minerals agreement with the U.S. can’t hurt his country’s aspirations to join the European Union as Kyiv dispatches a team to Washington for talks this week. “Ukraine will send a special technical working group to Washington “no later than tomorrow,” Shmyhal said, for talks on a deal governing post-war plans to exploit the country’s mineral deposits and rebuild its infrastructure. Kyiv seeks a larger U.S. investment as part of any agreement amid concerns that giving Washington vast privileges could complicate its bid to join the EU. (Bloomberg, 04.10.25)
  • Ukraine will send a team to Washington next week to begin negotiations on a new draft of a deal that would give the U.S. access to Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources, Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko told The Associated Press. (WP, 04.06.25)
• Grigory Didenko, Chairman of the Odessa Regional Council, is suspected of illegal enrichment and entering inaccurate data into the income declaration. During a search in his bank safe… in the Bank Vostok, significant amounts of cash, gold, jewelry, expensive watches and keys to a Mercedes car were found. This is stated in the decision of the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC). The search was carried out as part of the investigation into the case of illegal enrichment and declaration of inaccurate information under Part 2 of Article 366-2 and Art. 368-5 UCU. Didenko's wife Yulia and other relatives also appear in the case. (Korrespondent.net, 04.10.25)
• Ukraine’s biggest steelmaker, Metinvest BV, received the first batch of imported coking coal from its U.S. subsidiary after Russian offensives forced it to shut a local mine. The steelmaker has unloaded 80,000 tons of coal from United Coal Company LLC, the Appalachian-based producer that Metinvest acquired in 2009.” (Bloomberg, 04.08.25)

• Ukrainian lawmakers are almost certain to extend martial law again before it expires on May 9, the parliamentary speaker has said, determined to uphold democracy even as the United States and Russia pressure Kyiv to hold a new vote. (Reuters, 04.11.25)

• Ukraine has established diplomatic relations with Somalia as Kyiv continues efforts to expand relations with African nations. (Bloomberg, 04.11.25)
• Forty-eight individuals accused in corruption cases have joined Ukraine’s Armed Forces to avoid punishment, the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office said in a Facebook statement on April 10. According to the agency, military enlistment has become one of the most common ways for suspects in cases investigated by SAPO and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine to evade criminal responsibility. Officials clarified that in all 48 cases, the individuals enlisted voluntarily after their indictments had been sent to court. As a result, court proceedings have been suspended, the statutes of limitations are running out, and the risk of suspects avoiding accountability has grown. (New Voice of Ukraine, 04.10.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• On April 9, European Union ambassadors will green-light the bloc's biggest-ever lethal military aid package to Moldova, worth 20 million euros. (RFE/RL, 04.08.25)
• Estonia’s parliament passed a law forcing the local affiliate of the Russian Orthodox Church to sever ties with its pro-Kremlin leadership in Moscow, in an escalating standoff with an institution widely seen as an instrument of Russian soft power. (Bloomberg, 04.10.25)
• Latvia’s parliament has passed a new law requiring citizens of countries outside the EU, NATO, and the OECD to provide detailed information about the purpose of their visit before each entry into the country. (Meduza, 04.04.25)
• Ukrainian teen Daniil Bardadim faces terrorism charges in Lithuania for allegedly torching an IKEA store in Vilnius as part of a Russian GRU-led sabotage campaign. (NYT, 04.10.25)
• The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the key rate at 16.5% on Friday, and Governor Timur Suleimenov said there was a high probability that it would be left at that level at coming meetings. (Bloomberg, 04.11.25)
• The BRICS countries may eventually establish their own alternative currency to the dollar, according to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who was speaking in an interview with the international television and radio broadcaster Mir. (TASS, 04.11.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Asked also prior to the meeting if discussions could include setting up a date for Putin and Trump to meet, Peskov said: "Let's see. It depends on what Witkoff has come with."
2. During their previous, second meeting, which took place in Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow, Putin told Wiktoff: "You haven’t been to my St. Petersburg yet! You haven’t seen the synagogue!" according to Kommersant. This could have been part of Putin’s charm offensive. That Putin refrained from nuclear saber rattling when addressing a meeting on the development of the Russian Navy, including the naval component of the Russian strategic nuclear triad before meeting Witkoff later that day, could also be an effort to refrain from causing discontent in Trump’s team.
3. RM staff could not find any reports on whether Sergei Lavrov attended the meeting.
4. Less than 48 hours after that April 2 meeting in DC Wiktoff told Trump that the fastest way to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine was to support a strategy that would give Russia ownership of four eastern Ukrainian regions it attempted to annex illegally in 2022, according to Reuters.
5. If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.  (Axios, 04.11.25)
6. Before meeting Witkoff last month in Moscow, for example, Putin floated an unconfirmed story that a large group of Ukrainian soldiers was surrounded as Russian forces retook territory in the Kursk region. Trump repeated the story uncritically and asked Putin to show mercy. (WP, 04.04.25, cited in RM’s 04.04.25 digest)
7. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC News  on April 6 that US President Donald Trump did not impose tariffs on Russia because of ongoing negotiations between Moscow and Washington to end the war in Ukraine. (Meduza, 04.06.25) 
8. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 216 square kilometers (83 square miles), according to a April 8, 2025, estimate by the Economist. (RM, 04.09.25
9. For the U.K.’s Telegraph’s maps comparing changes in territorial control in March 2025 compared to November 2024, see this link.
10. In 2024, Germany volunteered to find Patriot systems for Ukraine all over the world. For context, the U.S. currently has 60 Patriot batteries in service, Germany has 10 and Patriot systems are also present in some Asian countries. (RBC.ua, 04.11.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.