7 Things to Know

1. Russia and Ukraine are in a war of attrition, which “will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow,” according to the U.S. intelligence community’s annual Worldwide Threat Assessment presented this week. The document, which as its predecessor, refers to Russia as America’s adversary, predicts that Vladimir Putin “will be unable to achieve … total victory” in spite of having sacrificed 750,000+ in killed and wounded Russian soldiers, but acknowledges that “Russia in the past year has seized the upper hand in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is on a path to accrue greater leverage to press Kyiv and its Western backers to negotiate an end to the war that grants Moscow concessions it seeks.” It also follows from WTA-2025 that both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin “for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement.” For a more detailed review of WTA-2025’s Russia-related propositions, see this blog post.
2. “Our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line. Only recently, I said that we would squeeze them into a corner, but now we have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off,” Putin claimed while visiting the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine on March 27. During the visit to this Project 885M Yasen-M vessel, Putin claimed that the Russian armed forces had captured 99% of the Luhansk region and over 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Putin’s estimate regarding the four provinces is close to a March 23 estimate provided by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War to RM. According to the ISW estimate, Russian forces have captured 73.6% of Kherson Oblast; 73.3% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast; 70.2% of Donetsk Oblast; and 99.3% of Luhansk Oblast. It also follows from the interactive map maintained by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT team that Russian forces had captured 46 square miles (118 square kilometers) in the 30 day period from Feb. 21, 2025, to March 23, 2025. It follows then that if Russia were to focus only on these four regions, advancing at this rate of 46 square miles per 30 days (or some 1.5 miles per day), then it would take Russian forces more than 15 years to “finish off” the takeover of these four regions, ceteris paribus.
3. In the past month (Feb. 25–March 25, 2025), Russia gained 73 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, an area roughly equivalent to about 3 Manhattan islands, according to the March 26, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Meanwhile, in Russia’s Kursk oblast, Ukraine currently controls just 32 square miles, or 4%, of the 470 square miles it controlled in early autumn 2024, according to the card.  

4. The separate talks U.S.officials held first with Ukrainian officials, then with Russian officials, then with Ukrainian officials again, in Saudi Arabia on March 23–25, failed to either usher in a ceasefire in the Black Sea or prevent violations of an earlier moratorium on Russian and Ukrainian attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. The three sides produced competing accounts of the outcomes of the talks, from which it could be inferred that the biggest obstacles to the Black Sea ceasefire are the conditions Russia has added to its account of the talks. The Kremlin said the agreement can enter into force only after Western sanctions impacting its agricultural exports are lifted, which the EU has rejected. That Russian-U.S. talks, which lasted for 12 hours on March 24, failed to produce any breakthrough was stated openly by one of the Russian negotiators on March 28. One of Russia’s negotiators and former deputy foreign minister Grigory Karasin said U.S. proposals at the talks were “unacceptable” and predicted that negotiations may drag on into next year. While keen to refrain from antagonizing Trump, who has invested political capital into the effort to end the war, the Kremlin didn’t expect a breakthrough at the talks in Saudi Arabia. This follows from Putin’s choice of Karasin and Sergei Beseda, who had lost high-ranking posts in the MFA in 2019 and FSB in 2024, respectively, some time ago, and whom Russian commentator Georgii Bovt described as “elderly retirees,” as the two lead negotiators for the March 24^th talks. If that signal was not strong enough, then Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s preview of the talks, in which he said, “we are only at the beginning of this path,” was.

5. This week has seen U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reject the notion of setting any deadlines for the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, even though his president has earlier promised to end the war in a day, or in 100 days. When asked on March 28 how long he anticipated the negotiations would take, Rubio responded: “We’re committed to trying to achieve peace as long as it takes. That doesn’t mean that I can guarantee you that there’s going to be an agreement in a week or a month. I just can’t put a timeframe on it because it doesn’t depend on us. It depends on the Russians, and it depends on the Ukrainians. It also depends on our partners in Europe who have sanctions that will have to be taken into account, I believe, as part of any final deal.” During his campaign for presidency last year, Trump claimed he could end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours of taking office. Upon beginning his term on Jan. 20, however, Trump designated retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Russia and Ukraine and tasked him with ending the war within 100 days, which put the deadline by or on April 30, 2025. More recently, “people familiar with the planning” of the Trump administration’s Ukraine peace efforts told Bloomberg they hope a broad ceasefire in Russia’s war in Ukraine can be reached by April 20, which this year is Easter in both the Western and Orthodox churches. That Rubio now refuses to offer a deadline for completing talks might be an indication that his evaluation of prospects of success at the negotiating table in the near future has evolved.
6. Even as European leaders rejected this week the possibility of easing sanctions on Russia per its demands as a precondition for implementing the Russian-Ukrainian Black Sea ceasefire, some European majors have begun to eye returning to Russia. Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor are all weighing when to re-enter Russia’s markets, according to FT. In addition to these European oil traders, South Korea’s Samsung, LG Electronics and Hyundai are weighing whether to re-expand their presence in Russia, according to Korea Times. This week has also seen Putin welcome a Western consumer flagship, Italy’s Ariston, back by canceling the temporary nationalization of its Russian unit, according to AFP. Last week saw Putin tell the Russian Cabinet of Ministers to create a procedure for Western businesses to return to Russia. It has also been reported by Reuters earlier this month that the Trump administration is working on a plan that would ease sanctions against Russia, which is under more sanctions than the next six targets combined, according to The Economist. More recently, Rubio said on March 26 the United States will evaluate Russia’s aforementioned demands for easing sanctions.
7. Ending the war in Ukraine will be on Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s agenda  when he holds talks with Russian leaders during his visit to Russia on March 31–April 2. Meanwhile, North Korea, which has reportedly sent an additional 3,000 troops this year to fight against Ukrainian forces, is already in talks with Russia on potential visits by Kim Jong Un to Moscow and by Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced March 25 that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is a Russian facility and cannot be transferred to Ukraine or any other country. The ministry also ruled out the possibility of joint operation, arguing that ensuring the plant’s physical and nuclear safety would be impossible. During a recent phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the United States could help operate and possibly own Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. (Kyiv Independent, 03.25.25)
• A $1.7 billion steel shield protecting Chernobyl’s damaged Reactor No. 4—the world’s largest movable structure—has been severely compromised by a Russian drone strike in February, raising fears of prolonged radiation risks. The attack, which Ukrainian officials blame on Moscow, burned through a critical waterproof membrane and damaged nearly half of the structure, delaying plans to dismantle the reactor safely. The Kremlin has denied responsibility. (NYT, 03.25.25)
• Shortly before the war, Westinghouse, an American nuclear technology company, signed a deal with Energoatom, Ukraine's state-owned nuclear company, to build five reactors. After Russia attacked, the number was increased to nine and the two companies agreed to further cooperate to deploy smaller plants in Ukraine. For Westinghouse, it was a breakthrough after years of struggling to enter a Ukrainian nuclear market long dominated by Rosatom, the Russian nuclear power giant. (NYT, 03.23.25)
• Russia presented its seventh national report to the IAEA on nuclear safety commitments under the Joint Convention, highlighting progress in spent fuel and radioactive waste management. Rosatom and regulator Rostekhnadzor showcased completed projects including a spent fuel reprocessing center in Zheleznogorsk and fast-neutron reactor operations at Beloyarsk NPP. Officials emphasized Russia's full compliance with international standards while outlining new disposal facilities under construction in Seversk and Ozersk. (Rosatom, 03.24.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has deployed an additional 3,000 troops to Russia this year and continues to supply missiles, artillery and ammunition to support the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, South Korea’s military said March 27. (MT/AFP, 03.27.25)
• As of March 2025, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) forces had highly likely sustained over 5,000 casualties in offensive combat operations against Ukrainian forces in the Russian oblast of Kursk, with approximately a third of the casualties killed in action. The total casualties amount to close to half of the approximately 11,000 DPRK troops initially deployed to the Kursk region. (UKMOD X account, 03.28.25)
• Russia and North Korea are negotiating a potential visit by Kim Jong Un to Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko confirmed, following discussions during his recent trip to Pyongyang. The Kremlin reaffirmed its standing invitation to the North Korean leader, though no date has been set, while unconfirmed reports suggest Kim may attend Moscow's WWII victory celebrations in May. Such a visit would mark Kim's first official trip to the Russian capital, having previously visited only the Far East region in 2019 and 2023. Rudenko added that discussions are also underway regarding a possible visit by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang to continue what he called a “strategic dialogue with our Korean friends.” (Meduza, 03.27.25, Meduza, 03.27.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia is also increasing military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, which will continue to help its war effort and enhance U.S. adversary cooperation and collective capacity.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25) For a more detailed review of WTA’s Russia-related propositions, see this blog post.
• Two-thirds of Russians (65%) support the use of private military contractors to conduct combat operations on behalf of Russia’s interests abroad, and a smaller majority (56%) support using North Korean forces to conduct combat, according to a February 2025 Chicago Council-Levada Center survey. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 03.26.25)
• Also see section “China-Russia: Allied or aligned?”

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “In the past year, Iran has focused extensively on deepening ties with Russia—including through military cooperation for its war in Ukraine—and has relied on China as a key political and economic partner to help it mitigate economic and diplomatic pressure.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• The United Nations nuclear watchdog said its latest talks with a senior Iranian official failed to yield a breakthrough in its years-long atomic probe, underscoring the urgent need for a diplomatic solution to a tense standoff between the Islamic Republic and the U.S. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said March 25 he may be “returning soon” to Tehran to continue talks with Iranian representatives. (Bloomberg, 03.25.25)
• Also see section “China-Russia: Allied or aligned?”

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The Trump administration reversed its decision to terminate a U.S. initiative that documented alleged Russian war crimes on March 27 following reporting by The Washington Post and other media outlets, WP reported March 27, citing U.S. officials and congressional aides familiar with the matter. However, when asked on March 28 whether the Ukrainian children program was “back on,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “No, no, the program we’re not—the program is not funded.” (RM, 03.28.25)
• Since January 2024, the Russians have fired 30 missiles, some 17,000 drones and nearly 1,200 glide bombs across Kherson region, according to Ukrainian statistics. Nevertheless, about one-fourth of the residents of the city of Kherson have remained. (WSJ, 03.27.25)
• A correspondent for the Russian state-controlled newspaper Izvestia and three members of a filming crew from the Russian Defense Ministry’s TV channel Zvezda were killed in a Ukrainian attack in the self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s Republic,” the Russian Investigative Committee reported on March 24. According to occupation administration head Leonid Pasechnik, the artillery strike killed six people, including Izvestia correspondent Alexander Fedorchak, Zvezda cameraman Andrey Panov and driver Alexander Sirkeli. Pasechnik also stated that a 14-year-old boy was injured and hospitalized. (Meduza, 03.25.25)
• Anna Prokofieva, a military correspondent for Russia's state-run Channel One, was killed by a mine explosion near the Ukrainian border. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• Ukraine estimates total damages from Russian aggression since 2014 may reach $1 trillion, with the figure growing daily due to ongoing attacks, according to Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Iryna Mudra. (Korrespondent.net, 03.28.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In past month (Feb. 25–March 25, 2025) Russia gained 73 square miles, an area roughly equivalent to about 3 Manhattan islands, according to the March 26, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Meanwhile, in Russia’s Kursk oblast, Ukraine controls just 32 square miles, or 4%, of the 470 square miles it controlled in early autumn 2024, according to the card. (RM, 03.26.25)¹

Friday, March 21, 2025

• On March 21, a Russian drone strike in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region killed three — a 41-year-old man, his 38-year-old wife and their 17-year-old daughter — on March 28, ratcheting tension over whether a limited ceasefire is being honored. (WP, 03.22.25)
• Overnight into March 28, part of a major Russian energy facility in Sudzha near the Ukrainian border that once pumped natural gas to western Europe was set ablaze in an attack that each country accused the other of launching. (NYT, 03.23.25)

Saturday, March 22, 2025

• A wave of at least 179 Shahed-type attack drones from Russia struck four regions in Ukraine overnight on March 21-22, killing a family of three in Zaporizhzhia, and wounding at least 12 people. (RFE/RL, 03.22.25)

Sunday, March 23, 2025

• On March 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Nadiya. (RM, 03.28.25)
• Multiple explosions shook Kyiv overnight as air defense units fired at incoming drones. The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia had launched nearly 150 drones across the country, and that it had shot down approximately 100. The assertion could not be independently verified. (NYT, 03.23.25)
• Czech President Petr Pavel had been visiting Odesa and boarded a train to Kyiv just 20 minutes before the March 21 Russian drone attack. (FT, 03.23.25)

Monday, March 24, 2025

• A Russian missile strike on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy on March 24 wounded 65 people, including 14 children, the regional prosecutor's office said. (MT/AFP, 03.24.25)
• A 2007-born Russian soldier, Alexander Petlinsky, has been confirmed killed in Ukraine, becoming the first known casualty from his birth year. (Mediazona, 03.24.25)

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

• Moscow launched a missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy, injuring over 100 civilians. The attack hit a residential area, damaging a school and apartment buildings, with 23 children among the wounded. (Meduza, 03.25.25)
• Alexander Fedorchak, a war correspondent for Russia's main pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia was killed in Ukraine on March 24. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)
• A Russian Defense Ministry journal reveals Ukrainian drones account for three-quarters of injuries sustained by Russian troops in positional warfare, based on interviews with 6,000 wounded soldiers. Artillery caused 20% of injuries, while small arms fire accounted for just 4%. The study notes drone attacks have tripled evacuation times to 14.5 hours. This follows a 2024 report showing 94% of assault-phase injuries were from shrapnel/blast wounds (including drone strikes). The conflict marks the first large-scale war with such extensive UAV use, with Kyiv attributing 70-80% of Russian casualties to drones. (iStories, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia in the past year has seized the upper hand in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is on a path to accrue greater leverage to press Kyiv and its Western backers to negotiate an end to the war that grants Moscow concessions it seeks. Continuing the Russia-Ukraine war perpetuates strategic risks to the United States of unintended escalation to large-scale war, the potential use of nuclear weapons.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Even though Russian President Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages. This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.” The WTA also said: “Russia’s military has suffered more casualties in Ukraine than in all of its other wars since World War II (750,000-plus dead and wounded).” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

• At least 11 people were injured in overnight drone strikes on the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Dnipro March 26, causing extensive damage. Officials reported that Russians launched at least 86 Shahed drones, hitting civilian buildings and vehicles. Three of those injured were in Dnipro, where more than a dozen high-rise buildings were hit. (RFE/RL, 03.27.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry March 26 accused Ukraine of violating a 30-day pause on attacks against energy infrastructure. Russia’s military claimed Ukrainian drone strikes over the past 24 hours caused power outages for thousands of residents in the border regions of Kursk and Bryansk. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)

Thursday, March 27, 2025

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said while visiting the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine on March 27, 2025: “Overall, we can clearly see what is happening right now [in the war]. Our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line. Only recently, I said that we would squeeze them into a corner, but now we have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off. I think that people in Ukraine need to realize what is going on. Our Armed Forces have been gathering momentum and acting increasingly effectively,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
• On March 27, the Ukrainian air force reported downing and jamming most of 86 explosive-laden drones and decoys fired by Russia in the barrage. But those that evaded air defenses did some serious damage in Ukraine’s second- and third-largest cities of Kharkiv and Dnipro respectively. Putin’s forces targeted Kharkiv, situated close to the Russian border, with drones late March 26, injuring 11 people in the city and at least seven in the nearby town of Zolochiv, regional governor Oleh Synehubov said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 03.27.25)
• Putin is trying to buy time as Russian forces prepare for a new offensive in Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, Zelenskyy said following the “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Paris March 27. (Meduza, 03.28.25)

Friday, March 28, 2025

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged drone strikes overnight, as Russian forces increased the intensity of attacks on the ground. In a statement, the Ukrainian Air Force said that, on the night of March 28, Russia launched 163 drones of various types. Of the 163 drones launched overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down 89 of them. According to the air force, 51 failed to hit their targets, most likely as a result of electronic warfare countermeasures. Over the past 24 hours, Russian troops have carried out massive shelling and air strikes on the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson and dozens of settlements in the region, said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the regional military administration, on March 28. (RFE/RL, 03.28.25)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry on March 28 accused Ukraine of firing rockets and more than a dozen drones at its energy infrastructure, violating a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between the two warring sides. "Over the past 24 hours, the Kyiv regime continued its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure using various types of drones and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers," the military said. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25)
• In recent days, Ukrainian forces have conducted a limited incursion into Russia's Belgorod region, according to Ukrainian officials and open-source analysts, marking Kyiv's second cross-border operation after last summer's Kursk offensive. While smaller in scale than the previous push, the move appears aimed at diverting Russian troops from other fronts and strengthening Ukraine's negotiating position ahead of planned U.S.-brokered peace talks. Russian military bloggers reported Chechen units being deployed to counter the advance, though neither government has officially acknowledged the operation. (NYT, 03.28.25)
• The commander of a detachment from the Russian National Guard’s 607th Special Purpose Center, Mayor Marat Tibilov, has been killed in combat on the Kursk front. Just a month ago, Tibilov was presented with the "Hero of Russia" award by Putin. (Status-6 X-account, 03.28.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Putin would violate any peace agreement in Ukraine without robust security arrangements. While welcoming Trump's mediation, Starmer is organizing a European "coalition of the willing"—with U.K. and French troops committed—to deter future Russian aggression. The PM emphasized maintaining Britain's "special relationship" with the U.S., noting his productive rapport with Trump despite policy differences. Starmer also highlighted the diplomatic value of the royal family, including King Charles' recent engagement with world leaders. (NYT, 03.23.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron has said that a so-called reassurance force of European troops in post-conflict Ukraine would take shape over the next month, with France and Britain sending military officials to Kyiv soon. “I think that within three to four weeks, we’ll have those two questions settled: the structure of the Ukrainian army, the reassurance forces, and a fairly precise action plan with the needs, as well as the contributors,” Macron said March 27 after hosting Zelenskyy and more than 30 countries, including Britain, that are part of a “coalition of the willing” backing Kyiv. French and British military officials “will go there so the Ukrainians can tell us exactly what they need and what sites they want them to be deployed,” said Macron. “Nothing is off the table, so maritime, air and ground” capabilities are being mulled, while the Ukrainians would also say how many soldiers they would need. (FT, 03.27.25)
• On March 26, Macron said Russia cannot set conditions on European support to Ukraine as part of U.S.-led negotiations over a possible ceasefire. “Russia can’t have a say in the support we give and will give Ukraine,” he said. “Russia can’t dictate the conditions of durable peace.” Macron was speaking alongside Zelenskyy ahead of a summit meeting March 27 with more than 30 European leaders to discuss support for Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 03.26.25)
• On March 27, European leaders convened in Paris in the latest meeting of the “coalition of the willing,” the countries who could help Ukraine fight Russia despite wavering American commitment and who could help safeguard an eventual peace. Who is willing to do what in the coalition remains unclear, especially when low growth and high debt are complicating the equation for European countries trying to spend more on their militaries. The biggest question surrounds the idea of a potential “reassurance force” of European troops stationed in Ukraine once the conflict ends to prevent Russia from repeating its 2022 invasion. Britain and France floated the idea, but so far no other country has committed troops to such a force. (NYT, 03.27.25)
  • Macron reiterated March 26 that any European force would not be on the front lines of the conflict and would not be tasked with monitoring or enforcing a ceasefire—a job that he suggested could fall to United Nations peacekeepers. Instead, he said, European troops would be based farther from the front lines, to deter Russia, and would help train and support Ukrainian forces. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, called the idea ''simplistic'' and ''a posture and a pose.” (NYT, 03.27.25)
  • On March 27, Maria Zakharova, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, called such a mission “military intervention in Ukraine under the guise of a peacekeeping mission.” “It could lead to a direct military clash between Russia and NATO,” Zakharova added. (NYT, 03.27.25)
  • Starmer’s office said that over 200 military planners had gathered at the British military operational headquarters this week to discuss the “structure of any future force to ensure Ukraine can defend itself from future Russian aggression.” (NYT, 03.27.25)
  • European leaders agreed at a summit in Paris on March 27 to tighten sanctions on Russia rather than ease them, as Britain and France outlined plans to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.27.25)
• In Europe, there is an inevitable gap between talk and action on Ukraine, and unity is fracturing already, especially when it comes to spending and borrowing money in a period of low growth and high debt. The Dutch and others are not fans of raising collective debt for defense. Keeping Hungary on board is ever more difficult. And when the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced a plan for billions more for the military, called ''ReArm Europe,'' two of the bloc's largest countries, Italy and Spain, thought that was all a bit aggressive. So now the plan has been rebranded as ''Readiness 2030.'' (NYT, 03.27.25)
• The plan by Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia who is now the chief foreign and security official for the European Union, to provide up to 40 billion euros (more than $43 billion) to Ukraine through a small, fixed percentage levy on each country's national income has gone nowhere. Her backup proposal, for an added €5 billion as a first step toward providing Ukraine two million artillery shells this year, was also rejected by Italy, Slovakia and even France. (NYT, 03.27.25)
• NATO officials want to set a new spending goal at the summit in June, but one closer to 3.5% of GDP, up from 2% now. (NYT, 03.27.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• A coalition of European leaders rejected the possibility of easing sanctions on Russia, one of Putin’s demands to agree to a partial ceasefire with Ukraine. “Now is not the time for lifting of sanctions,” said Starmer March 27 alongside Zelenskyy following a meeting of about 30 leaders in Paris hosted by Macron. “Quite the contrary, what we discussed is how we can increase sanctions to support the U.S. initiative to bring Russia to the table through further pressure from these group of countries.” Europe’s determination to maintain sanctions on Russia risks becoming a major point of tension with the U.S. as Trump pushes for a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.27.25)
• On March 21, Trump declined to say whether he would impose sanctions he has threatened against Russia for attacks on Ukraine. He also avoided acknowledging that Russia had invaded Ukraine. (NYT, 03.23.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said with regard to lifting sanctions on Russia: "It’s a host of sanctions, including sanctions that are not American. They’ve raised potentially a couple – my readout of it – they’re not even American sanctions, so we couldn’t lift them if we wanted to. We’re going to sort of analyze what our team came back with. We’ll present those options to the President. The President will make those decision." (State.gov, 03.28.25)
• A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has urged the Trump administration to consider using Russia’s frozen Central Bank assets to increase pressure on Moscow. “How does the Administration view using all financial tools at its disposal to increase pressure on Russia to end the war?” the senators asked in the letter. “Specifically, does the Administration believe that U.S. and EU-held assets should be used as leverage in negotiations with Russia to bring an end to the war? If so, how?” The letter also asks whether the White House plans to develop a strategy to encourage the EU, G-7 and other allies to make use of frozen Russian assets. The letter, dated March 21, was signed by four senators: Republicans Todd Young and Lindsey Graham, and Democrats Richard Blumenthal and Tim Kaine. (Meduza, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia has shown it can navigate substantial economic challenges resulting from the ongoing drains of the war, Western cost imposition, and high inflation and interest rates, for at least the near term by using financial and import substitution workarounds, maintaining low debt, and continuing investments in the defense-industrial base. Russia’s economy remains the fourth largest in the world (based on GDP at purchasing power parity).” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• There are more Western sanctions on Russia than the next six targets combined. America alone has imposed nearly 6,500 penalties since February 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Relief from American sanctions looks unlikely to transform Russia’s economy. Ending American sanctions could revive the goods trade between the two countries, which shrank by 90% from 2021 to 2024. Even before the invasion, however, such trade was worth a relatively meagre $35bn. Any rebound would be equally modest. By contrast, Russia’s pre-war trade with the EU was worth €258bn ($305bn). If Europe stayed the course, that would not come back. (The Economist, 03.24.25)
• Putin on March 26 reversed the temporary nationalization of Italian appliance maker Ariston's Russian unit, a move welcomed by Italy, which had been outraged by its seizure a year ago. Ariston said in a statement that a decree signed by Putin "restored ownership and full management" of the Russian subsidiary to Ariston's parent company. The Italian Foreign Ministry hailed the decision, which it said was "the fruit of lengthy work by the ministry and the Italian embassy in Moscow," as well as "several" Italian and European business groups active in Russia. There was no comment from Putin or Russian authorities about why the decision was taken. In April 2024, Moscow transferred 100% control of Ariston Thermo Rus, a company specializing in heating and hot water production equipment, to Gazprom Household Systems. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• Major South Korean companies are taking steps to resume business in Russia as Ukraine ceasefire negotiations raise the possibility of sanctions relief. LG Electronics recently restarted operations at its plant near Moscow, which had been suspended since August 2022. Samsung Electronics, LG’s main rival, has increased its marketing spending in Russia, with expenses between January and February up 30% from the same period last year. Also Hyundai participate in Electro 2025 (Russia’s largest electrical exhibition) via a local distributor. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25, Korea Times, 03.28.25, FT, 03.28.25)
• Raiffeisen Bank International AG received a better credit rating outlook, marking a rare improvement ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago cast doubt over the Austrian bank’s most profitable unit. S&P Global Ratings raised Raiffeisen’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative March 27, citing reduced risk related to the Russia operations the key reason. (Bloomberg, 03.28.25)
• Russia is scheduled to receive deliveries of chemical ingredients critical to the manufacture of explosives, ordered from fertilizer companies that have largely escaped international sanctions, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 03.26.25)
• For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, March 21, 2025

• Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said that Putin had personally selected negotiators for the peace talks. The Russian delegation will be led by Grigory Karasin, a senior Russian diplomat and lawmaker; and Sergey Beseda, an adviser to the head of the FSB, the country’s domestic intelligence agency. While Karasin has been involved in sensitive foreign policy talks before, Beseda’s choice came as a surprise to some. (NYT, 03.23.25)
• Steve Witkoff, the U.S. president’s special envoy for Russia, on March 28 said Washington’s goal in peace talks was to secure a “30-day ceasefire, during which time we discuss a permanent ceasefire.” "We're going to want everybody in some respect satisfied," Witkoff told Tucker Carlson in an interview, adding that he wanted the Europeans, Ukrainians and Russians to feel "that we came out of this thing with a deal that everybody can live with." (FT, 03.23.25, WP, 03.23.25)
  • In the interview, Witkoff falsely described Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine as wanting to join Russia and dismissed European postwar security efforts as “a posture and a pose.” Witkoff uncritically amplified a number of Russian demands, claims and justifications regarding the war in Ukraine during the March 21 interview. Witkoff told Carlson that Russia "100 percent" does not want to invade Europe and that Russia "does not need to absorb Ukraine." Witkoff stated that Russia "reclaimed" five regions in Ukraine—Crimea and Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts—and that Russia "has gotten what [it] wants" and will not want more. (ISW, 03.22.25, FT, 03.23.25)

Saturday, March 22, 2025

• Moscow hopes to make “some progress” at upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia, a Russian negotiator told state media Saturday. “We hope to achieve at least some progress,” Grigory Karasin told Zvezda TV, a channel run by Russia’s Defense Ministry. Karasin, who will represent Russia alongside FSB adviser Sergey Beseda, described his mood as both “combative and constructive” ahead of the talks. (MT/AFP, 03.22.25)

Sunday, March 23, 2025

• Trump said efforts to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine from escalating further are “under control.” Trump cited his “good” relationships with Putin and Zelenskyy as key to negotiating an end to the war. (Bloomberg, 03.23.25)
• The U.S. is still hoping a broad ceasefire in Russia’s war in Ukraine can be reached within weeks, even as Moscow increases strikes on Ukrainian cities and gives off signals that it’s in no hurry to reach a deal. The White House aims for a truce agreement by April 20, which this year is Easter in both the Western and Orthodox churches, but recognizes that timeline may slip given the large gaps between the positions of the two sides, according to people familiar with the planning. (Bloomberg, 03.23.25)
• Ukrainian and U.S. officials held talks in Riyadh. The discussion on March 23 in Saudi Arabia was “productive and focused,” and “addressed key points including energy,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said. House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said earlier March 23 that the latest talks among “technical teams” would focus on a potential Black Sea maritime ceasefire. He suggested that would lead into discussions about “the line of control, which is the actual front lines” of the conflict, which started when Kremlin forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022. (Bloomberg, 03.23.25)
• The Kremlin on March 23 downplayed expectations for a rapid resolution to the war in Ukraine, saying talks were just beginning and that “difficult negotiations” were ahead. Delegations from Russia and Ukraine are set to hold separate talks with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia over the next 48 hours as Trump pushes for a rapid end to more than three years of intense fighting. “We are only at the beginning of this path,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov told Russian state TV. He said there were many outstanding “questions” and “nuances” on how a potential ceasefire might be implemented. (MT/AFP, 03.23.25)

Monday, March 24, 2025

• Witkoff told Fox News on March 23 that he expected "some real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries. And from that, you'll naturally gravitate into a full-on shooting ceasefire." (WP, 03.24.25)
• U.S. and Russian negotiators met for daylong talks in Saudi Arabia on March 24, with Trump's envoys hoping to build on the energy cease-fire deal. They emerged the next day with what appeared to be a tangible accomplishment: an agreement to "eliminate the use of force" in the Black Sea. Ukraine, whose negotiators met separately with the U.S. team, agreed to the same language. But then Moscow threw a wrench in the works by stating that it expected certain conditions to be fulfilled in order for the Black Sea truce to take effect. These included restoring the access of some of Russia's largest banks to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, a global payment network for banks. The Russian banks' exclusion from Swift is an element of Western sanctions that has proved particularly painful for Moscow. "They've got five or six conditions, we're looking at all of them," Trump said March 25. It is unclear whether the return of the Russian banks to Swift will even happen, since the payment network is based in Belgium and subject to the jurisdiction of the European Union, which hasn't shown any willingness so far to ease sanctions. (WSJ, 03.26.25)
• Ukraine unconditionally supports the idea of a full ceasefire with Russia that goes beyond the one-month energy infrastructure truce currently under discussion, the nation’s envoy to the U.S. said. “We embrace it wholeheartedly,” Ambassador Oksana Markarova said. (Bloomberg, 03.24.25)
• U.S.-Russia Black Sea ceasefire talks in Riyadh have raised concerns among European coastal states about potential concessions to Moscow's naval interests. While U.S. officials describe the discussions as technical, EU members Romania and Bulgaria fear any deal expanding Russian naval access could undermine regional security. (FT, 03.24.25)
• Ukrainians remain deeply skeptical of potential cease-fire agreements with Russia, citing Moscow's history of violating past truces to gain military advantages. With 87% of Ukrainians believing Russia seeks further territorial conquest, officials warn any new cease-fire could simply allow Moscow to regroup before launching fresh attacks. (WSJ, 03.24.25)

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

• After separate talks with Ukrainian and Russian delegations over three days in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. said it had reached agreements with Ukraine and Russia for a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The United States also announced separate agreements with Kyiv and Moscow on barring the use of force in the Black Sea. The pair of White House statements—one covering the March 23 and 25 talks with Ukraine, the other the March 24 meeting with Russia—came hours after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the content of the U.S.-Russia talks “will definitely not be publicized." Both statements said that “the United States will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides to achieve a peaceful resolution” of the war, now in its fourth year. The White House said March 25 that Kyiv and Moscow had agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” But it remained unclear when the deal would be implemented as Russia unveiled additional demands for such implementation. While Kyiv said it would comply immediately, Moscow said it would first need to secure the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russian banks involved in the production and trade of agricultural goods. The Kremlin is also seeking to readmit those banks to the Swift messaging system, a move that would require EU approval. (RFE/RL, 03.25.25, RM, 03.26.25, FT, 03.26.25) See the U.S., Ukrainian and Russian readouts of the March 23-25 talks below.

• Russian negotiator Grigory Karasin said March 25 that Russia will continue talks with the United States over the war in Ukraine and hopes to involve the United Nations and other countries. Karasin, a senator in Russia’s upper-house Federation Council, added that Moscow would push to expand the talks to include the broader international community, “above all the United Nations and certain countries.” On March 28, Karasin said the talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia earlier this week failed to produce any major breakthroughs in Ukraine peace negotiations and may drag on into next year. Karasin said that March 24’s 12-hour discussions in Riyadh “haven’t led to any radical breakthrough yet, but the opportunities are there.” The discussions covered safe navigation in the Black Sea and potential restoration of access for some Russian banks to the SWIFT international payments system, he added. U.S. negotiators, including senior National Security Council director Andrew Peek and State Department policy planning chief Michael Anton, initially presented “proposals that are unacceptable to Russia,” Karasin claimed. (Bloomberg, 03.25.25, MT/AFP, 03.25.25, MT/AFP, 03.28.25) Karasin disclosed these details even though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed on March 25 that the content of the U.S.-Russia talks held on March 24 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, will not be made public.
  • U.S. and Russian delegations discussed the possible resumption of the Black Sea grain deal during their 12-hour meeting in Riyadh on March 24, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told state media. (Meduza, 03.25.25)
  • Trump suggested that Russia may be intentionally delaying peace negotiations with Ukraine: "I think that Russia wants to see an end to it, but it could be they're dragging their feet." The president, speaking from the White House Roosevelt Room, described the war's brutal toll - approximately 2,500 weekly casualties - while maintaining both sides desire resolution. Trump's comments come amid ongoing U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks, though he acknowledged uncertainty about Moscow's true intentions. (Newsmax, 03.25.25)
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said March 26 that the United States will examine Russia's requested conditions for agreements with Ukraine, but cautioned that a peace deal would take time. "It won't be simple. It'll take some time, but at least we're on that road and we're talking about these things," Rubio told a news conference in Jamaica. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
  • On March 26, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated SWIFT access depends on Russia's next moves, noting Trump would leverage sanctions for negotiating advantage. “It will be determined by Russian leadership’s next moves, whether the sanctions go up or down,” he said. “And President Trump, I think, would not hesitate to raise sanctions if it gives him a negotiating advantage.” (Meduza, 03.27.25)
  • The European Union said March 26 that it would not lift or amend sanctions on Russia unless Moscow agrees to unconditionally withdraw its forces from Ukraine. Russia is seeking sanctions relief as part of a Black Sea ceasefire deal discussed with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia this week. The Kremlin says the agreement can enter into force only after Western sanctions impacting its agricultural exports are lifted. In particular, Russia wants restrictions removed from the state-owned agricultural lender Rosselkhozbank, which was sanctioned by the EU in 2022 and disconnected from the SWIFT international banking system. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• The Kremlin published a list of energy infrastructure covered under the partial Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiated by U.S. and Russia earlier this week. The list includes:
  • oil refineries;
  • oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities, including pumping stations;
  • electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, including power plants, substations, transformers and distribution units;
  • nuclear power plants;
  • hydroelectric dam facilities. (Meduza, 03.25.25)
    • Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that the Russian Federation reserves the right not to implement the moratorium on strikes on energy facilities, which Kyiv constantly violates. (Status-6 X-account, 03.28.25)
• Zelenskyy reiterated March 26 that discussions are ongoing about the details of the temporary ceasefire agreements on energy infrastructure strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea. Zelenskyy stated March 26 that Ukraine, the United States and Russia must still resolve unspecified "technical" issues related to the temporary ceasefire agreements on energy infrastructure strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea but did reach agreements on these ceasefires during talks in Saudi Arabia on March 24 and 25. (ISW, 03.27.25)
• Zelenskyy said March 25 that the U.S. had proposed a new critical minerals deal to Kyiv that goes well beyond an initial framework accord hammered out last month, as part of Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Zelenskyy told reporters he had not yet reviewed the proposal in full, but said it did not include increased U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s nuclear power sector, which Trump suggested last week. The Ukrainian president described the latest U.S. proposal as a “large, comprehensive agreement.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Ukrainian government is reviewing the new economic partnership proposal from the U.S. and hopes the agreement could be signed by the two parties as soon as next week. (FT, 03.25.25, Bloomberg, 03.26.25)
  • Senior Ukrainian officials said the revised proposal could undermine their nation’s sovereignty, route profits abroad and deepen its dependence on Washington. The draft deal marks a dramatic escalation of the Trump administration’s efforts to seize control of Ukraine’s lucrative natural resources as it presses to bring the conflict to an end. It would apply to all mineral resources, including oil and gas, and major energy assets across the entire Ukrainian territory. Washington is demanding that Ukraine and the U.S. set up a supervisory board to oversee a joint investment fund to split the income from Ukraine’s oil, gas and mineral projects between the two countries. The U.S. would appoint three of the five board members, giving Washington full veto power over the fund. The draft also says that “the contributions of the United States following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022” would be “deemed as contributions to the partnership.” (FT, 03.27.25)
  • The revised U.S. proposal would require Ukraine to repay $123 billion in non-refundable aid as an "initial contribution" to a joint investment fund, according to European Pravda. The deal grants Washington control over Ukraine’s natural resource projects—including oil and gas—while mandating 50% revenue sharing plus 4% annual returns until the debt is repaid. Kyiv, calling the terms "unacceptable," plans to counter with its own proposal, though Zelenskyy stressed Ukraine remains committed to U.S. cooperation. (iStories, 03.28.25)
  • Trump’s administration is demanding the “right of first offer” on investments in all infrastructure and natural resources projects under a revised partnership deal with Ukraine. It would represent an unprecedented expansion of U.S. economic influence in Europe’s largest country by area just at the time when it’s attempting to align with the EU. (Bloomberg, 03.27.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ... for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement. For Russia, positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks over a ceasefire in the Black Sea were still exploratory—and that the U.S. wasn't able to fulfill some of the Russian demands. "Some of those conditions include sanctions that are not ours—they belong to the European Union," he said. Rubio said that in the coming days the Trump administration would go through the proposals and try to more fully understand what the Russian position is. Then, he said, the Russian asks will be brought to Trump, "who will ultimately make a decision about what the next step is here." (WSJ, 03.26.25)
• The details of the ceasefire agreements on energy strikes and maritime operations in the Black Sea that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials reached on March 24 and 25 remained unclear as of March 26. Russia and Ukraine appear to agree that a ceasefire against strikes on energy infrastructure is active as of March 25, but U.S. and Ukrainian statements continue to make clear that technical negotiations are ongoing. (ISW, 03.26.25)
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations of strikes and ceasefire violations, although the ceasefire terms remain unclear. (ISW, 03.26.25)
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukrainian forces of attempting to strike energy infrastructure in Kursk Oblast on March 25, gas infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight on March 25 to 26 and electrical infrastructure in Bryansk Oblast on March 26. (ISW, 03.26.25)
  • Ukrainian Presidential Communications Advisor Dmytro Lytvyn stated on March 25 that Russian forces have conducted eight strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities since March 18. Ukrainian officials have reported that Russian overnight strike series have damaged civilian infrastructure across Ukraine almost every night since March 18 but have not specified which strikes specifically damaged energy infrastructure. (ISW, 03.26.25)
• Macron and Zelenskyy say Russia should accept a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with no preconditions. (RFE/RL, 03.26.25)

Thursday, March 27, 2025

• The promised ceasefire on energy infrastructure has shown little evidence of taking hold in the war as of March 27. Russia and Ukraine have continued striking each others' territory daily, while accusing each other of violating the truce, WSJ reported March 27. However, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated March 27 that neither Ukraine nor Russia struck each other's energy facilities since March 25, although the Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire agreement on the nights of March 25 to 26 and 26 to 27, according to ISW. (RM, 03.27.25)
• Rubio said March 27 that it would be premature to expect higher-level talks between Russian and U.S. officials as Washington assesses Moscow's response to its efforts to end the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25)
• On March 27, Zelenskyy said he isn’t afraid of direct talks with Putin, though he also compared Russia’s leadership to “dinosaurs.” “You see, they just want to eat us. And we have to defend ourselves and fight for our rights,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 03.27.25)
• During an inspection of Russia's Northern Fleet nuclear submarines, Putin suggested establishing a U.N.-supervised "temporary administration" in Ukraine to organize elections and form a "competent government" before peace talks. Citing precedents like East Timor (1999) and the Balkans, he framed the idea as part of Russia's security needs while leaving room for "other options,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. “In principle, it would indeed be possible to discuss, under U.N. auspices with the United States and even European countries—and certainly with our partners and allies—the possibility of establishing a temporary administration in Ukraine. To what end? To conduct democratic elections, to bring to power a competent government that enjoys public trust, and only then to begin negotiations on a peace treaty and sign legitimate agreements that would be recognized worldwide as consistent and reliable,” he said. (RM, 03.27.25)
  • “Any step taken to achieve this objective will be welcomed by us, and we will work with any partners who strive towards this goal. This includes not only the United States but also the People’s Republic of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, all BRICS nations and many others, such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, with which we have a signed treaty,” Putin said, according to Kremlin’s transcript. (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
• A Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats — who spoke on the condition of anonymity — said that a solution would not be found quickly and will require "long negotiations." It was unclear "how such a solution can be sold to the Ukrainian side," they said, noting that Trump "would like to do this all as fast as possible. And Putin does not have such motivations." (WP, 03.27.25)

Friday, March 28, 2025

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected on March 28 the notion of setting any deadlines for Ukraine-Russia peace talks even though his president has earlier promised to end the war in a day, or in 100 days. When asked on March 28 “How long do you anticipate these negotiations to continue?” Rubio responded: “We’re going to – we’re trying to achieve peace.  We’re committed to trying to achieve peace as long as it takes.  That doesn’t mean that I can guarantee you that there’s going to be an agreement in a week or a month.  I just can’t put a timeframe on it because it doesn’t depend on us.  It depends on the Russians and it depends on the Ukrainians.  It also depends on our partners in Europe who have sanctions that will have to be taken into account, I believe, as part of any final deal.” (RM, 03.28.25)
• On March 28, Rubio said with regard to testing Russia’s good faith: "I’m not prepared to pass judgment on it. They’re meeting with us. They’re talking to us. They’re making proposals. … I think you have to make more progress on a technical level at this point, but we’ll see." (State.gov, 03.28.25)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Putin that cooperation between their two countries is crucial for resolving regional conflicts, his office said March 28. "Cooperation between Turkey and Russia is of key importance in resolving regional issues," Erdogan said after discussions that covered the Ukraine war and the situation in Syria. The two leaders also spoke about security in the Black Sea, with Erdogan pledging that Ankara would take steps to ensure "the safety of commercial navigation," which he said would contribute to broader peace efforts. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25)
• NATO Military Committee Chair Adm. Rob Bauer warned that freezing the war in Ukraine would be the worst possible scenario. "Of course, we all strive for a complete cessation of hostilities across all of Ukraine's territory and for a just and lasting peace. But as I've said before, a bad peace may be worse than no peace at all. A frozen conflict is the worst possible scenario. That's why we must now focus on achieving a real, lasting peace,” he said. (RBC.ua, 03.28.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO’s top commander, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli of the United States, said that Russia intends to triple the size of its military after the war in Ukraine ends. It also plans to build up its military presence on NATO borders, particularly those with Finland and the Baltic states. (NYT, 03.28.25)
• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala has identified France and the UK as Europe's hard power leaders, citing their nuclear capabilities and response to Russian threats. Speaking to the FT, Fiala emphasized their crucial role in discussions about post-conflict security for Ukraine amid U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks. He praised UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's support for Kyiv and viewed Britain's deeper European security involvement as an opportunity for closer cooperation. (FT, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia’s interest in Greenland is focused mainly on its proximity to strategically important naval routes between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans—including for nuclear-armed submarines—and the fact that Greenland hosts a key U.S. military base.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• Recent polling suggests younger Britons are, indeed, less willing to enlist. Only 11% ages 18 to 27 say they would fight for Britain if called upon—half as many as in the same survey 20 years ago. (WP, 03.26.25)
• Sweden will increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030—up from 2.4%—in what Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called 'the biggest rearmament since the Cold War.' The boost, funded largely through borrowing, comes in response to Russia's war in Ukraine and uncertainties about U.S. commitments. The plan has been agreed with all four parties supporting Sweden's center-right government. (FT, 03.25.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said that competition in the Arctic between various nations is growing, as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to annex Greenland and NATO increases its activities in the region. Moscow will respond to new challenges by increasing its military presence in the region, Putin said. Putin also said at "The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue International Forum” on March 27, 2025, that that the U.S. has sought to annex Greenland since the 1860s, citing historical attempts including a failed 1910 land swap deal and postwar purchase offers. He compared it to the initially mocked but now strategic 1867 Alaska purchase, framing current U.S. Arctic activities as part of a long-term expansionist pattern, according to Kremlin.ru’s transcript. (RM, 03.27.25, Bloomberg, 03.27.25)
• The British government on Wednesday laid out plans for higher military spending and cuts to social benefits, as it sought to keep the nation's finances on track in what it called a ''more uncertain world.'' Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer, said the government would spend 2.2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) more on defense in the fiscal year that begins next month. (NYT, 03.27.25)
• A new report from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and Bundeswehr indicates that Russia is preparing for a potential large-scale war with NATO by the end of the decade. While Moscow currently lacks the capacity for a full-scale invasion of the alliance, it may test NATO’s resolve with a limited military operation against a member state. (BILD, 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China's Foreign Minister will visit Russia next week for talks on issues including efforts to end the war in Ukraine, both countries announced Friday. "At the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov… Foreign Minister Wang Yi will pay an official visit to Russia from March 31 to April 2," a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said. During the visit, Wang will meet with Russian leaders and hold talks with Lavrov, Beijing said. Lavrov will hold talks with Wang Yi, in Moscow on April 1 to discuss resolving the situation around Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25, TASS, 03.28.25)
• Moscow must balance its ties with both Beijing and Washington, a top Russian official said, highlighting the emergence of a new geopolitical dynamic between President Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. “As to the relationship between Russia, China and the United States, we should not develop a relationship with one other country at the expense of another and vice versa,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told an audience Friday at the Boao Forum in the southern Chinese province of Hainan. (Bloomberg, 03.28.25)
• Beijing may want to play a role in maintaining the peace in Ukraine. The German newspaper Die Welt quoted anonymous European Union diplomats on March 22 as saying that their Chinese counterparts have reached out to explore whether their peacekeepers could work as part of the broader force being considered in European capitals. The idea was raised earlier this year at the World Economic Forum and Munich Security Conference. The EU diplomats told the German newspaper that Chinese participation in such a mission “could potentially increase Russia's acceptance of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.” But Beijing rebuffed that claim, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun calling the report false on March 24. (RFE/RL, 03.26.25)
• The People’s Liberation Army of China is ready to develop its cooperation with the Russian and Iranian militaries, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, Senior Colonel Wu Qian said, commenting on the Maritime Security Belt 2025 naval exercise.
• "Starting from 2019, China, Iran and Russia have successfully held five joint maritime exercises," he said. "China is ready to actively cooperate with each of the sides in the maritime security domain, making its own contribution to peace and stability on the global and regional level." (TASS, 03.28.25)
• Moscow and Beijing consider the military activity of Washington and its allies to be the main cause of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following consultations between Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko and Chinese Government Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs Liu Xiaoming. (TASS, 03.28.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea has been growing more rapidly in recent years, reinforcing threats from each of them individually… They seek to challenge the United States and other countries through deliberate campaigns to gain an advantage, while also trying to avoid direct war. Growing cooperation between and among these adversaries is increasing their fortitude against the United States, the potential for hostilities with any one of them to draw in another, and pressure on other global actors to choose sides.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “China is using its increased cooperation with Russia to attain a stronger presence in the Arctic and legitimize its influence there. One area of cooperation is China’s production of icebreaker ships that enable safe passage through Arctic waters.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• In an interview with Russia’s Channel One Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated the need to restore strategic stability dialogue with the United States, which was suspended by the American side in February 2022. He said: "The Russian-American dialogue on strategic stability must be restored." At the same time, he emphasized that this must be done "exclusively on the basis of returning to the principles underlying the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty and reflected in its preamble, including the interconnection between strategic offensive and defensive weapons, mutual respect, and the agreement to conduct affairs solely on the basis of equality." Lavrov added: "As long as we are, in essence, doctrinally considered an enemy by the U.S., what kind of stability can we even talk about?" (Kommersant, 03.26.25)
• The United States wants to engage China in talks with Russia on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons, but the decision is up to Beijing, and Moscow will respect China’s choice, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Channel One in an interview. "U.S. President Donald Trump—and his predecessor Joe Biden—says that China needs to be involved in these talks. Our stance is as follows: first and foremost, this matter is for Beijing to decide. We will treat their choice with total respect," he said. (TASS, 03.26.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said:” “Russia has the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile that, along with its deployed ground-, air- and sea-based delivery systems, could inflict catastrophic damage to the Homeland. Russia has developed a more modernized, mobile, and survivable strategic nuclear force that is intended to circumvent or neutralize future augmented U.S. missile defense and ensure deterrence through reliable retaliatory strike potential… Russia’s nuclear and counterspace forces continue to provide it with strategic deterrence capability.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “The resulting [from the Russian-Ukrainian war] heightened and prolonged political-military tensions between Moscow and Washington, coupled with Russia’s growing confidence in its battlefield superiority and defense industrial base and increased risk of nuclear war, create both urgency and complications for U.S. efforts to bring the war to an acceptable close.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• Putin said while attending the launch of the Perm nuclear submarine, the fifth nuclear submarine of the Yasen-M project: “I would especially like to note that the missile submarines of the Yasen-M project are equipped with modern navigation, communication, and sonar systems. They carry high-precision weaponry and robotic systems. Perm has become the first multipurpose submarine to be armed with Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. “We have been, and will continue to be, strengthening the Navy, including its strategic component,” he said. “We will continue to do everything necessary to reliably defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Russia, and to reinforce its standing as one of the world’s leading naval powers,” Putin said. (RM, 03.28.25)
• Putin said while visiting the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine on March 27, 2025: “We saw another submarine of this kind today and took part in its launch. It is quite similar, while adding the capability to carry and launch the Zircon missiles, which is something we can be proud of. After all, to some extent, the Zircon missiles can be viewed as strategic weapons… It is our belief that the Navy is one of the main guarantees of Russia’s state security and global strategic stability, because there is a certain strategic balance between Russia and the United States, and we will treat this balance with the utmost care,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. During his visit to the Arkhangelsk Putin also shared his assessment is that the Russian armed forces have captured 99% of the Luhansk region  and over 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (RM, 03.28.25)
• Trump envoy Richard Grenell sparked controversy by claiming Ukraine's nuclear weapons surrendered under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum "weren't Ukraine's" but rather Russia's, drawing a sharp rebuke. (Meduza, 03.26.25)
• RFE/RL has uncovered new evidence pointing to Belarus’s 1,405th ammunition base as a likely storage site for Russian nuclear warheads, including a radiation monitor in a military photo and iodine prophylaxis stockpiles—measures typically reserved for nuclear facilities. Satellite images show ongoing construction of rail links and fortified storage at the Asipovichy garrison, where Belarusian leader Lukashenko previously claimed to have deployed warheads. Analysts suggest the upgrades, including anti-air defenses, signal preparations for housing nuclear-capable Iskander missiles. (RFE/RL, 03.27.25)

Counterterrorism:

• Hundreds of Russians placed flowers at Crocus City Hall in the Moscow suburb of Krasnogorsk March 22, paying homage to the 145 victims of the terrorist attack, one year on. (MT/AFP, 03.23.25)
  • Central Asian migrants in Russia have met with increased harassment and violence since four Tajik men were arrested for the deadly terror attack on Moscow's Crocus City Hall on March 22, 2024. (RFE/RL, 03.22.25)
  • Russian authorities appear to have quietly lost interest in pushing the idea that Ukraine was somehow connected to the worst terrorist attack in Russia of the last two decades. On the first anniversary of the Crocus City Hall massacre, officials barely mentioned the alleged Ukrainian link. (Bell, 03.28.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “ISIS-K in South Asia is the group’s branch most capable of carrying out external terrorist attacks and maintains the intent to conduct attacks in South and Central Asia, and globally, although its capabilities vary. ISIS-K’s mass casualty attacks in Russia and Iran in 2024, as well as arrests of ISIS-K supporters in Europe and the United States, highlight the group’s expanding capability beyond South Asia and ability to inspire individuals to conduct attacks abroad.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia’s advanced cyber capabilities, its repeated success compromising sensitive targets for intelligence collection, and its past attempts to pre-position access on U.S. critical infrastructure make it a persistent counterintelligence and cyber attack threat. Moscow’s unique strength is the practical experience it has gained integrating cyber attacks and operations with wartime military action, almost certainly amplifying its potential to focus combined impact on U.S. targets in time of conflict.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• Trump dismissed the disclosure of Houthi attack plans in a Signal chat as a “glitch” with no impact on national security. Intelligence experts argue that it gave foreign adversaries priceless insight into U.S. spycraft far beyond the obvious. (Bloomberg, 03.28.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• European oil traders are weighing when to re-enter Russia’s markets with some predicting Moscow will seek to maintain increased control of its oil exports even if western sanctions are lifted. The chief executives of Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said they would probably return to trading Russian crude if sanctions were lifted, but cautioned that this could be some time away. However, due to the large numbers of European citizens working at Trafigura, both the U.K. and EU sanctions would also need to be lifted before the company changed its position. (FT, 03.27.25)
  • “Most people [in Vitol] are based in Europe and sitting under European sanctions and beginning to think, OK, how could this break down?” Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy told the FT summit. (FT, 03.27.25)
  • Russia’s oil producers would probably want to maintain that network even if western sanctions were eased allowing European traders to return, said Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive and founder of Geneva-based Gunvor. The prediction from Gunvor, one of the biggest shippers of Russian oil before the war, raises the possibility of a renewed battle for Moscow’s markets between Europe’s trading giants and the groups, mainly in Dubai and Hong Kong, that have served the country since the full-scale invasion in 2022. (FT, 03.27.25)
    • Before the war, oil producers such as Rosneft sold oil to European traders on a free-on-board basis, meaning the traders would organize the shipping from Russian ports to foreign customers, capturing profits along the way. In the future, Rosneft and other Russian producers might seek to sell more oil on a delivered basis, using the trading networks they had built over the past three years to ship directly to customers and keep a greater portion of the profits, Törnqvist said. (FT, 03.27.25)
• The heads of some of the world’s top energy traders said they would be open to returning to Russia for business if sanctions were fully lifted, although some expressed caution about the prospect happening any time soon. (Bloomberg, 03.25.25)
  • “If sanctions are eased in a way that we can go back in, why wouldn’t we? It’s our job,” Gunvor Group CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist said in an interview. “We don’t do anything today because we think even though there are some gray zones, we just don’t do it. But if these are removed, why wouldn’t we?” (Bloomberg, 03.25.25)
  • “I think if the sanctions are lifted we would go back to Russia and see if we have a role to play in the commodities sector,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. CEO Marco Dunand said. “As a company we are bit more shy when it comes to sanctions, but if sanctions were lifted we would absolutely consider if we could bring value and go back.” (Bloomberg, 03.25.25)
• Moscow and Washington are currently discussing the possibility of restarting gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russia’s state-run Channel One on Wednesday. "Now, of course, there are disagreements. But is it only in the interests of Russia and the United States to restore normal energy supply to Europe? The Nord Stream pipelines are being discussed," Lavrov said. "It will be interesting if the Americans use their influence on Europe and force it not to reject the Russian gas. That would be surreal," he continued. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• This year, Russia’s total gas deliveries to Europe and Turkey are expected to shrink more than fivefold from 2019 levels, falling to 47 billion cubic meters and 34 billion cubic meters in 2034. Cash flow will remain negative, amounting to a deficit of 15 trillion rubles by 2034, according to a 42-page Gazprom presentation. Meanwhile deputy CEO of Gazprom Elena Ilyukhina proposed the largest staff reduction ever at the company’s headquarters. After two decades of expansion, 1,600 jobs there. Gazprom employs about 500,000 people. (FT, 03.26.25)
• Russia is suing Shell for 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) over allegedly unpaid gas supplies to the state energy giant Gazprom in 2022, the British-Dutch company said in its annual report published Tuesday. Shell announced in early 2022 that it would sever ties with Gazprom, halt Russian crude oil purchases and withdraw from Russian energy markets in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)
• Hungary plans to expand energy cooperation with Russia, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced during a live broadcast from Moscow's Red Square following talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Szijjártó praised Hungarian oil company MOL's "highly successful" operations in Russia and stated their energy partnership has endured through challenging times, signaling continued collaboration despite EU sanctions. (bne IntelliNews, 03.26.25)
• Ukraine is set to import record levels of gas from Europe as Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the rapid depletion of fuel buffers have pushed up demand. “We believe that Ukraine will need up to 5 billion cubic meters in the season from April 2025 to April 2026,” said Dmitriy Sakharuk, Chief Executive Officer of D.Trading, the trading arm of DTEK. (Bloomberg, 03.25.25)
• Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, reported a 26.5% drop in net profit for 2024, citing asset impairment losses and increased deferred taxes. Lukoil posted a net profit of 848.5 billion rubles ($10.1 billion) last year, down from 1.1 trillion rubles ($13.7 billion) in 2023. Revenue, however, rose nearly 9% to 8.6 trillion rubles ($102.1 billion) from 7.9 trillion rubles ($93.9 billion) the previous year. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• Panama has deregistered 128 vessels—including at least 70 tankers—as part of a global effort to disrupt sanctions-evading "shadow fleets" transporting Russian and Iranian oil. The move by the Panama Maritime Authority intensifies pressure on illicit energy exports funding Moscow’s war effort and Tehran’s regional activities. (bne IntelliNews, 03.28.25)
• Russia's coal industry faces a wave of bankruptcies due to Western sanctions and Asian export challenges, with 27 mines (9% of national output) already near insolvency and 62 more (29% of output) reporting above-average losses, according to Energy Ministry data obtained by Vedomosti. The sector saw 50% of companies operate at a loss in 2024, with total revenue dropping 19% to 1.8 trillion rubles ($19.4bn) amid declining exports to key markets. (iStories, 03.27.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• American businessman Michael Calvey is done with Russia. Although under Russian law his conviction was nullified after his five-year probation period ended a year ago, last week a Moscow court changed the probationary sentence given to a French defendant in the case to a prison term in absentia. Mr. Calvey expects some American businesses to return, although he considers Russia too risky for long-term investments. (NYT, 03.23.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In a wide-ranging interview with Tucker Carlson, Steve Witkoff, the U.S. president’s special envoy for Russia, made several claims that implied proximity to Russia’s positions on the conflict. For instance, he noted that all the Ukrainian regions, which Moscow now claims to be part of Russia, held referenda to join Russia, with “the overwhelming majority of the people… indicat[ing] that they want to be under Russian rule.”² “The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is: Will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?” Witkoff asked. “Can [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy survive politically if he acknowledges this? This is the central issue in the conflict.” Witkoff also described these regions as “Russian-speaking.”³ Witkoff also repeated a Russian narrative about Ukraine’s statehood, even though he didn’t explicitly endorse it. “There’s a sensibility in Russia that Ukraine is a false country, that they just patch together in this sort of mosaic, these regions. And that’s the root cause, in my opinion, of this war, that Russia regards those five regions as rightfully theirs,” Witkoff said. (RM, 03.25.25)
• CIA Director John Ratcliffe has selected a veteran CIA operations officer who has expressed strong support for Ukraine's defensive war against Russia to head the spy agency's clandestine operations. Ralph Goff, a six-time CIA station chief who left the agency in October 2023, has accepted Ratcliffe's offer to be deputy director for operations, responsible for running human espionage and covert action programs, the people said. (WP, 03.22.25)
• Russia's new ambassador to the United States was to present his credentials to the Trump administration on March 27, the U.S. State Department said. Aleksandr Darchiyev, who was recently named as Russian ambassador to the United States, will present his credentials at 2:15 p.m. local time. (RFE/RL, 03.27.25)
• Across Massachusetts, federal immigration agents conducted an intense six-day operation in what Immigration and Customs Enforcement said was a targeted effort “focusing on transnational organized crime, gangs, and egregious illegal alien offenders. Those arrested hailed from Brazil, Chile, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, and Russia, among other countries, officials said. (The Boston Globe, 03.25.25)
• U.S. immigration authorities detained and revoked the visa of a Russian scientist who opposes the war in Ukraine and had been conducting genetic research at Harvard Medical School, her friends and colleagues said this week. Ksenia Petrova was stopped at Boston Logan International Airport on Feb. 16 after returning from a personal trip in France. U.S. officials revoked her research visa for failing to properly declare frog embryos she had brought with her, according to The Harvard Crimson. Petrova’s Harvard Medical School supervisor, Leon Peshkin, told The Guardian that he had “made a huge mistake” in asking Petrova to bring the frog embryo samples from French colleagues. (MT/AFP, 03.28.25)
• U.S. lawmakers are renewing efforts to scrutinize foreign funding at American colleges, warning of the risk that countries such as China are using academic partnerships to potentially access sensitive research on artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. The legislation, passed by the House on Thursday with Republican backing and some Democratic support, would lower the threshold for disclosing foreign donations and contracts. It would also require colleges to report any amount of money coming from countries considered national security threats, including China and Russia. (Bloomberg, 03.27.25)
• A federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked President Trump’s push to close down Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a federally funded news organization that was born out of the American efforts to counter Soviet propaganda during the Cold War. The judge, Royce C. Lamberth of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, issued a temporary restraining order, saying that the Trump administration cannot unilaterally shut down RFE/RL, even if the president has ordered the closure. (NYT, 03.27.25)
   
• The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) has reversed its decision to cut funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), notifying the broadcaster of resumed financial support while reserving the right to terminate the grant later if deemed appropriate. The announcement appears in court filings from RFE/RL's countersuit, marking a temporary reprieve for the U.S.-funded outlet that has faced repeated funding threats under the Trump administration. (Zona.Media, 03.27.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “President Vladimir Putin appears resolved and prepared to pay a very high price to prevail in what he sees as a defining time in Russia’s strategic competition with the United States, world history, and his personal legacy. Most Russian people continue to passively accept the war, and the emergence of an alternative to Putin probably is less likely now than at any point in his quarter-century rule.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• Putin said at "The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue International Forum” on March 27, 2025 that the Arctic Zone accounts for over a quarter of the Russian Federation’s territory. “Nearly two and a half million our citizens live and work here, making a significant contribution to the nation’s progress. Current estimates indicate that the Arctic generates 7% of Russia’s gross domestic product and approximately 11% of our exports.” (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
  • Putin said at "The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue International Forum” on March 27, 2025: “Over the past decade, cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route—spanning from the Kara Gates Strait to the Bering Strait—has substantially increased. In 2014, a mere four million tons of cargo were transported via this corridor. By last year, that figure had risen to nearly 38 million tons—five times the Soviet-era record. We anticipate, with confidence, that volumes will reach 70–100 million tons by 2030.” (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
• Unconfirmed reports suggest that there is tension between Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina and the Kremlin over Russia's high interest rate and wartime monetary policies. A Russian insider source claimed on March 23 that the Russian Federation Council Accounts Chamber (the Russian Federation’s highest audit body) recently initiated an audit of the Russian Central Bank to investigate its monetary policy from 2022 to 2024 and the impact of the interest rate on inflation, budget expenditures, and investment The source claimed that the investigation is "effectively" an attack on Nabiullina. The insider source claimed that a group of lobbyists from large Russian businesses seek interest rate reductions. ISW cannot independently verify this insider source's claim and has not observed other reporting about the alleged audit. (ISW, 03.23.25)
• Putin on March 26 appointed new acting governors for the Sverdlovsk and Orenburg regions ahead of gubernatorial elections later this year. Orenburg’s outgoing governor, Denis Pasler, replaced Yury Kuivashev as governor in Sverdlovsk, according to a Kremlin decree. Yevgeny Solntsev, the former prime minister of the pro-Moscow government in eastern Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk region, succeeded Pasler as acting governor of Orenburg. (MT/AFP, 03.27.25)
• Russian tech giant VK plans to unveil a “super-app” this spring in hopes of eventually combining the functionalities of China’s ubiquitous WeChat, the business newspaper Vedomosti reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)
• Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has halted the publication of regional life expectancy data, according to the "If We're Precise" project. The figures for 2024, which were due by March 20, remain unavailable—only the national average (72.84 years) has been released. Rosstat confirmed the decision to suspend regional data but did not clarify if it would be published later. Analysts suggest the move may conceal sharp declines in some regions, though they caution against attributing this solely to war-related casualties. This follows a broader trend of data restrictions since the Ukraine invasion, with nearly 400 datasets removed from public access. In late 2023, Rosstat and the Social Fund also stopped publishing disability statistics. (Zona.Media, 03.25.25)
• Russian citizenship grants to foreigners dropped to 209,000 in 2024—the lowest in five years—marking a significant decline from 378,000 in 2023 and 691,000 in 2022, according to Interior Ministry data reported by Kommersant. While officials attribute the earlier spikes to residents of annexed Ukrainian regions obtaining passports, the pre-war 2021 figure was higher still at 735,000. Concurrently, deportations of foreigners rose from 145,000 to 190,000 last year. (Meduza, 03.27.25)
• Central Russia’s Oryol region has reportedly become the country’s first to offer financial incentives to schoolgirls who give birth after its governor signed a decree introducing the measure. Oryol is among 40 Russian regions pledging to pay female university students at least 100,000 rubles ($1,200) for having children starting this year, the exiled news outlet 7x7 reported. (MT/AFP, 03.24.25)
• A survey by OutRush project reveals just 8% of Russians who fled after the Ukraine invasion returned between summer 2023–2024, with another 5% planning to return. The study of 8,500 emigrants across 100+ countries shows 34% returned due to job difficulties, 34% from homesickness, and 32% dissatisfied with host countries. IT professionals comprised 43% of emigrants, while 21% worked in arts/culture/education. Separate RANEPA data shows only 10% of 2022-2023 emigrants returned, suggesting stabilized migration patterns. (iStories, 03.25.25)
• A court in St. Petersburg has sentenced Alexander Skobov, a 66-year-old Soviet dissident and activist, to 16 years in jail on charges of justifying terrorism and joining a terrorist group. Skovov was first arrested more than four decades ago and Vladimir Putin was among the KGB officers who worked on his case. (Bell, 03.27.25)
• In May 2024, a Moscow court banned several online job postings seeking candidates “of Slavic appearance” as illegal under Russian anti-discrimination labor laws and anti-extremism statutes, calling their distribution “unlawful and criminally punishable.” (RFE/RL, 03.22.25)
• The ruling United Russia party is working to rein in excessive focus on the war in Ukraine as it prepares for celebrations marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Saturday, citing remarks made by party officials at a recent gathering. (MT/AFP, 03.24.25)
• Lawmakers in Russia’s lower-house State Duma on Tuesday passed a bill banning advertising through organizations designated as “undesirable” or “extremist,” a move likely to steer businesses away from promoting their services on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)
• Russian authorities issued an arrest warrant for exiled political analyst Yekaterina Schulmann, the news outlet Mediazona reported March 25. Schulmann, one of Russia’s most prominent analysts on legislative affairs, left for Germany in early 2022 to pursue academic work shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)
• Tensions between Vladimir Putin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have reportedly escalated due to Kadyrov's unauthorized diplomatic outreach to Middle Eastern countries, according to an iStories investigation citing FSB sources. The rift emerged after Kadyrov allegedly sought foreign assurances about his family's security and assets amid his worsening health, which has kept him increasingly out of public view despite his denials. The independent report builds on previous findings about Kadyrov's serious pancreatic and kidney conditions. (iStories, 03.27.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin said while visiting the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine on March 27, 2025: “In response to my instructions, a strategy for the development of the Navy is currently being drafted, along with a program for the construction of surface ships and submarines until 2050,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
• Putin said while visiting the Russian Northern Fleet’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine on March 27, 2025: “The General Staff of the Defense Ministry has approved a program to reorganize the Marine Infantry. We will gradually transition brigades into Marine Infantry divisions. This year, two divisions, including the 155th Brigade, will be established; next year, two more divisions; and the following year, another division,” according to the Kremlin’s transcript. (Kremlin.ru, 03.27.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said:” Russia’s sizable ground force losses in the war have done little to undermine the strategic pillars of its military power, to include its diverse and robust nuclear deterrent and asymmetric capabilities, particularly in counterspace and undersea warfare. Russia’s air and naval forces remain intact, with the former being more modern and capable than at the start of the invasion.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment-2025” said: “Russia continues to train its military space elements and field new antisatellite weapons to disrupt and degrade U.S. and allied space capabilities. It is expanding its arsenal of jamming systems, DEWs, on-orbit counterspace capabilities, and ASAT missiles designed to target U.S. and allied satellites.” (WTA-2025, 03.25.25)
• Also see section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian authorities have detained billionaire Vadim Moshkovich, the first time that such a high-profile Russian businessman has been held by authorities since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. Moshkovich, the founder of one of the country’s largest agricultural holdings Rusagro, was detained as part of an investigation into fraud and abuse of power, according to the state newswire TASS. Moshkovich, a billionaire from the top-100 of Russia’s Forbes list, is one of the most prominent Russian business figures to be detained since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago. Several high-profile Russian defense officials were also arrested last year following a shake up of the Russian defense ministry. Moshkovich’s fortune is estimated at $2.9 billion, according to Forbes. A Moscow court on Thursday placed Moshkovich in pre-trial detention for up to two months on fraud charges. (FT, 03.26.25, MT/AFP, 03.27.25)
• Former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov appeared in court Monday for the start of a high-profile embezzlement trial that could result in him spending years behind bars. Ivanov, 49, who oversaw Russian military construction projects, was arrested in April 2024 as part of a broader Kremlin crackdown on military officials suspected of corruption. Prosecutors accuse him of embezzling 3.2 billion rubles ($38.3 million) from Moscow-based bank Intercom Merz, which went under in 2016, and over 200 million rubles during the procurement of two ferries for Crimea. (MT/AFP, 03.24.25)
• A Russian military court on Wednesday sentenced 12 members of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion to prison terms ranging from 13 to 23 years on terrorism charges in the largest and highest-profile trial of Ukrainian prisoners of war since the full-scale invasion. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)

• An arbitration court in Kaliningrad has ruled in the Prosecutor General’s favor and transferred 100% of the shares of the oilfield services group Borets to the state. According to the newspaper Kommersant, the court ordered the decision to be enforced immediately. Officials filed their lawsuit only last month, stating that the company was controlled by former Yukos shareholder Leonid Nevzlin and his business partners—British citizen Mark Shabad and Swedish citizen Gregory Shulberg. (Meduza, 03.27.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto is in Moscow today. He’s been to Russia at least 13 times since the war began more than three years ago. The frequency has raised eyebrows among some European government officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity and questioned their purpose. (Bloomberg, 03.26.25)
• Austrian intelligence officers investigating a Bulgarian for alleged espionage have uncovered a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at damaging Ukraine. The suspected spy allegedly led a large-scale effort in Austria and Germany to disseminate what looked like pro-Ukrainian messaging but with the use of nationalist and right-extremist language, seeking to create distrust in Kyiv’s leadership, the Interior Ministry in Vienna said in a statement Monday. (Bloomberg, 03.24.25)
• The Czech government has pledged to step in and support Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration cut funding to the broadcaster, which has been countering the propaganda of autocratic regimes such as Russia and Iran. The Prague-based media outlet is reliant on U.S. federal grants and was initially set up to communicate beyond the iron curtain during the cold war. The funding cuts were part of an effort by Trump to curtail foreign aid, and to shut down Voice of America, a federal broadcaster launched during the second world war. (FT, 03.22.25)
• Russian fertilizer exports hit a record 40 million tons last year and are expected to increase by up to 5% in 2025, according to the industry’s main trade association. (FT, 03.26.25)
• A March 2025 Levada Center poll reveals 74% of Russians believe the country is "on the right track," a 7-point increase since December 2024. President Vladimir Putin maintains an 87% approval rating, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's trust level surging to 22% (from 13% in October 2024) as ceasefire talks progress. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin follows at 19%, while other officials—including Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu—trail below 5%. (Levada Center, 03.27.25)
• Russians believe their government’s foreign policy decisions have improved the state of the defense forces (76%) and the country’s international influence (64%), according to a February 2025 Chicago Council-Levada Center survey. But they are more divided on their effects on the economy (49% improved, 36% worsened), according to the poll. The latter also indicates that pluralities think Russia’s foreign policy has worsened its international image (45%), standards of living (44%), and relationship with the United States (44%). Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen as having the most influence in Russia’s foreign policy (90%), followed by the Ministry of Defense (78%) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (74%), according to the poll. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 03.26.25)

Ukraine:

• Global leaders facing challenges from Donald Trump are seeing improved poll numbers, with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaching a 67% approval rating—his highest since December 2023—despite recent tensions with the U.S. president. Ukrainians have rallied around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the weeks since Trump assailed him in a bruising Oval Office encounter. “We may hate him. We may be harsh on him. But he’s our president,” said Olena Halushka of Kyiv-based non-profit International Centre for Ukrainian Victory. Zelenskyy’s overall approval rating has shot to 67% while his net approval is 38 per cent—the highest scores since December 2023—even as he seeks to mend relations by accepting Trump’s proposed minerals deal and partial 30-day truce. (FT, 03.25.25)
• Among the Ukrainians surveyed, 57% believe that corruption cannot be justified under any circumstances. In 2017, only a third of citizens held this opinion. At the same time, according to respondents, the level of corruption in the country is growing. This was shown by the results of annual research conducted by Info Sapiens at the request of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC). The survey was conducted from September to November 2024 among the population and enterprises. Among the population in 2024, corruption ranks second among social problems—79.4% of surveyed Ukrainians consider it very serious, which is 7.8% higher than the similar indicator in 2023. (Babel, 03.25.25)
• Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) have referred to court a case involving the misappropriation of over UAH 13.8 billion from Ukrnafta by seven individuals. According to NABU, in 2015, several LLCs were declared winners in Ukrnafta's crude oil auctions, signing sales contracts and receiving crude oil worth more than UAH 10.7 billion. However, these transactions violated a government regulation requiring crude oil deliveries only after full payment. The illegally obtained crude was then processed at the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, and the resulting petroleum products were sold at gas stations across the country. (Interfax.ukraine, 03.27.25)
• The Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) have urged the acting head of Naftogaz to take a responsible approach to prevent the loss of UAH 1.6 billion that could be recovered from abroad. NABU announced this via Facebook, Ukrinform reports. The anti-corruption agencies are committed to recovering assets and combating corruption schemes that threaten national interests. "There is now a real opportunity—unprecedented in Ukraine's history—to reclaim UAH 1.6 billion from abroad. For context, this sum could be used to purchase over 100,000 FPV drones," SAPO said. Completed investigations revealed over UAH 26 billion in damages, with UAH 6.8 billion in assets frozen and UAH 23 billion in civil lawsuits filed. So far, the state has recovered UAH 304 million. (Ukrinform.net, 03.21.25)
• Denys Komarnytskyi, a former Kyiv City Council member accused of orchestrating a large-scale land corruption scheme, fled Ukraine in an elaborate operation allegedly involving both police officers and security service personnel, Ukrainska Pravda reports. The escape has ignited a firestorm of controversy not only for the corruption allegations but particularly for the disturbing misuse of a military vehicle typically reserved for transporting fallen soldiers. The case has sparked intense public outrage across Ukraine, where martial law prohibits men aged 18-60 from leaving the country as they may be called to military service. Many Ukrainians are furious that wealthy, well-connected individuals like Komarnytskyi can apparently circumvent these restrictions with ease, despite facing serious criminal charges. The use of a vehicle meant for transporting war casualties has added a particularly painful dimension to the scandal. (Euromaidan Press, 03.27.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The head of Moldova’s semi-autonomous region of Gagauzia has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to pressure Moldovan authorities to release her from police custody after she was arrested earlier this week. Moldovan police detained Gagauz leader Evghenia Gutul at Chisinau International Airport late Tuesday, placing her in custody for 72 hours. A Moldovan court last year opened a trial against her on charges of funneling Russian funds to the now-banned pro-Russian Shor Party. (MT/AFP, 03.27.25)
• Estonian lawmakers voted Wednesday to ban the country's large Russian minority and other non-EU residents from voting in local elections, as the Baltic state warily eyes Moscow. (MT/AFP, 03.26.25)
• Armenia’s parliament took another step in the country’s westward march, approving a bill calling for the government to seek European Union membership. (RFE/RL, 03.26.25)
• In its routine update of the “foreign agents” registry on Friday, Russia’s Justice Ministry included two journalists from Abkhazia, the Georgian breakaway region recently rocked by protests against a controversial investment deal with Moscow. (MT/AFP, 03.25.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Graham Allison wrote: “In his 1952 campaign for the White House, Dwight David Eisenhower pledged to end [the] bloody war ....on the Korean Peninsula. Over the next six months, he actually did it... The key to Eisenhower’s success in fulfilling his promise will also be essential for Trump. Ike took the lead himself in a direct, focused effort to close the deal. If Trump can channel Eisenhower, using his authority to hammer out an agreement that neither Zelenskyy nor Putin will like but that will end the killing, prevent another outbreak of war, and allow Ukrainians to start rebuilding their country, he will be able to claim that he has achieved the peace “deal of the century.” (NI, 03.28.25)
• Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent pro-Kremlin foreign policy analyst, reflected the Kremlin's satisfaction over the Trump administration's handling of the talks, writing on Telegram that "everything is going according to the Russian scenario." (WP, 03.24.25)

Footnotes

1. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 189 square kilometers (73 square miles), according to a March 26, 2025, estimate by the Economist.
2. This claim ignores the fact that many residents of these provinces had fled their regions by the time the referenda were held in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in 2022, and that the supposed plebiscites were condemned as violations of international law. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the referendums a "violation of the U.N. Charter and international law” on Sept. 29, 2022. On Sept. 7, 2022, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia Bujar Osmani, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Pia Kauma and the Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Matteo Mecacci, condemned the Russian Federation’s holding of so-called “elections” in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories. EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell denounced the illegal referenda held in Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine on Sept. 28, 2022.
3. Witkoff did so even though Ukraine’s latest census in 2001 showed Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as predominantly Ukrainian-speaking.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade via AP.