8 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump is “running out of patience” with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine ceasefire, FT reported, citing Finland’s president Alexander Stubb, who spent seven hours with Trump on March 30.¹ In fact, Trump himself said on that day that he was so “pissed off” at Putin over his call for a temporary U.N. administration in Ukraine that he was considering secondary 25%–50% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. Trump—who has been advised by his staff not to talk to Putin until he commits to the broad ceasefire—was echoed by Marco Rubio, who insists that the White House needs to “begin to see real progress” from the Kremlin soon, asserting that “we will know soon enough—in a matter of weeks, not months—whether Russia is serious about peace or not.” To increase the Trump administration’s leverage vis-à-vis the Kremlin on this issue, some 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a bill that would slap a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations or breaches an eventual agreement, according to Bloomberg. However, these thinly veiled threats appeared to have produced no immediate impact, at least publicly. While a Kremlin spokesman declared on March 31 that Putin remains open to talks with Trump, Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov asserted on April 1 that Moscow cannot accept U.S. proposals for a ceasefire without addressing what Russian leaders describe as the “root causes” of the war.² Nor did Kirill Dmitriev indicate any radical change in Russia’s position on conditions for the ceasefire when this week he became the most senior Russian official to visit Washington since the start of the Ukraine war. The U.S. is now waiting for Dmitriev, who met with Steve Witkoff and other senior U.S. officials, to report to Putin before the two sides move forward with any next steps, according to Bloomberg.³ Meanwhile, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced Beijing's readiness to mediate in the Ukraine conflict during talks in Moscow with Sergei Lavrov, according to AFP.
2. Import tariffs, which Trump slapped on about 90 countries, had some surprise omissions, and one of them is Russia. That Russia was spared made many wonder why, prompting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to claim that Russia was spared because the sanctions imposed on the country after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine mean that U.S.-Russian trade had effectively stopped. Yet, low levels of trade didn’t prevent Trump from slapping tariffs on other countries. For instance, the U.S. exported $526 million worth of goods and services to Russia in 2024, while importing $3,007 million, with America’s deficit in this bilateral trade totaling $2,481 million that year. In comparison, the volume of Angola’s trade with the U.S. ($2.6 billion in goods last year) was lower than America’s trade with Russia, as was the deficit ($1,000 million), but this African country still found itself with a 32% import tariff. So, low levels of trade don’t quite explain why Russia was spared. Perhaps the structure of U.S. imports does? As NYT’s Anatoly Kurmanaev has reminded us, Russia is a Top 3 supplier of fertilizer to the United States. However, Russia’s share in U.S. imports of this commodity has not exactly been game-changing; Russia accounted for 16% of $9.97 billion worth of fertilizer that the U.S. imported in 2023. Perhaps there has been another factor in the confluence of drivers of Trump’s decision to spare Russia from the tariffs. It could be that Trump continues to harbor hopes that, despite having stalled so far in the negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Putin may eventually agree to implement Trump’s vision of first embracing a temporary but full ceasefire, and then using that halt to negotiate a permanent cessation of hostilities.
3. Ukraine is holding strong defensively and improving its ability to reinforce its positions, though a full Ukrainian victory is unlikely, as is a collapse, according to NATO SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli’s testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 3. Cavoli warned that U.S. aid to Ukraine is vital, especially for missile interception and intelligence. "It would obviously have a rapid and deleterious effect on their ability to fight," the general said when asked what would happen if the Trump administration were to refuse to provide military aid to Kyiv. Cavoli also acknowledged that Russia’s defense industry is outproducing the U.S. in categories such as tanks and shells. Russia is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles (as well as 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles) this year, while the U.S. produces only 135 tanks per year and no Bradley’s, DefenseScoop quoted Cavoli as telling U.S. senators. “Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined,” Cavoli said. Thus, while the Russian military is estimated to have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and over 400 air defense systems in Ukraine in the past year, Moscow is on pace to replace those losses, according to Cavoli.
4. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reoriented the U.S. military to prioritize deterring China, while leaving it to Europe to defend itself from potential Russian aggression, according to a secret internal Pentagon guidance memo signed by Hegseth earlier this month. “Hegseth’s guidance acknowledges that the U.S. is unlikely to provide substantial, if any, support to Europe in the case of Russian military advances, noting that Washington intends to push NATO allies to take primary defense of the region,” WP’s Alex Horton and Hannah Natanson reported March 29. The U.S. will support Europe with nuclear deterrence against Russia, and NATO should only count on U.S. forces that are not required for homeland defense or China deterrence missions, according to the two journalists’ description of the memo.⁴
5. As if to punctuate the Russian president’s disinterest in a peace deal, Putin this week moved to expand the size of his military, issuing a spring call-up for 160,000 men ages 30 and younger from April to July—the highest number of conscripts since 2011, according to WP’s April 4 editorial. The Kremlin and Defense Ministry insist conscripts are not sent into combat and that the draft is unrelated to the war in Ukraine. However, Ukraine has repeatedly claimed to have captured Russian conscripts, according to AFP. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has depleted Russia’s military personnel so much that the Kremlin has been relying on prison inmates and North Korean soldiers, according to the WP editorial. Importantly, while the bulk of conscripted soldiers are not sent into combat while serving for 12 months unless they agree to sign contracts to become professional soldiers for several years, their conscription frees up more professional soldiers in units inside Russia to be sent into combat.
6. Russia gained 99 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Nantucket island) in the past month, and overall picked up the pace of its advance. Last week’s gain of 47 square miles by Russian forces is a threefold increase over the previous week’s gains, according to the April 2, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As of April 3, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,487 square kilometers (43,431 square miles), which constituted 18.63% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map.
7. A New York Times investigation has revealed that the United States’ involvement in the Ukraine war was far deeper than previously understood. Here are the newspaper’s five takeaways from the investigation led by its journalist, Adam Entous.
   1. A U.S. base in Wiesbaden, Germany, supplied the Ukrainians with the coordinates of Russian forces on their soil.
   2. U.S. intelligence and artillery helped Ukraine quickly turn the tide against the Russian invasion.
   3. The Biden administration kept moving its red lines.
      1. In October 2022, U.S. intelligence overheard Russia’s then Ukraine commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, talking about indeed doing something desperate: using tactical nuclear weapons to prevent the Ukrainians from crossing the Dnipro and making a beeline to Crimea. Until that moment, U.S. intelligence agencies had estimated the chance of Russia’s using nuclear weapons in Ukraine at 5 to 10%. Now, they said, if the Russian lines in the south collapsed, the probability was 50%.
   4. Ultimately, the U.S. military and CIA were allowed to help with strikes into Russia.
   5. Political disagreements in Ukraine contributed to the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive’s collapse.
8. A new study by BOFIT has revealed that the level of Russians’ satisfaction with their household and personal circumstances has hit its highest in a decade. In more good news for the Russian workers, real wages in their country grew by a solid 6.5% year-on-year in January, according to preliminary Rosstat data cited by BNE. Some of their richest employers have also been enjoying an increase in income. The number of Russian billionaires grew from 110 in 2024 to a record high of 125, despite Russia’s enduring status as the most sanctioned country in the world, according to Forbes’s Russian edition. The sanctions must have played a role, however, in the fact that 24 former "Russian" billionaires in Forbes' updated ranking are now listed as citizens or residents of other countries, according to MT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Namibia’s President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah held talks with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev seeking to boost cooperation on nuclear energy in Africa’s biggest uranium producer. (Bloomberg, 04.02.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs has unanimously recommended ratifying the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Russia and Iran, the Vedomosti newspaper reported April 2. (BNE, 04.02.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On a Monday morning last fall, Ukrainian drone pilots watched what had become a familiar scene unfold on a drone’s live feed: Russian soldiers pointed their guns at two Ukrainians, who seemingly surrendered. Then, the footage showed, the Russians shot them point blank. It appeared to show the Ukrainian prisoners executed near the village of Novoivanovka in the Kursk region of Russia. (NYT, 04.04.25)
• Ukraine is mounting an extensive legal effort to seek justice for ecological harm, in Ukrainian courts and the International Criminal Court. Prosecutors are pursuing 247 cases of environmental war crimes against Russia. Prosecutors classify 14 of the 247 cases as ecocide under Ukraine’s criminal code because of the specifics of the damage, such as mass destruction of flora and fauna. Ukrainian officials put the total environmental cost at more than $85 billion. (NYT, 04.02.25)
• The Ukrainian Media Initiative for Human Rights (MIHR) presented a report on March 31 that analyzed nearly 600 trials in occupied Ukraine and in Russia and found that Russia is systematically violating the right to a fair trial of up to 6,000 Ukrainian citizens. (ISW, 04.03.25)
• The State Department has preserved information on Ukrainian children abducted by the Russian government during its war in Ukraine that lawmakers feared had been deleted, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. (NYT, 03.29.25)
• A Russian military court has sentenced Col. Yevgeny Malyshko and Senior Sgt. Roman Timonin to 20 and 18 years in prison, respectively, on charges of murder, torture and desecration of the bodies of seven fellow servicemen. The Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne first wrote about the case in August 2024, saying that Marat Ospanov, commander of the Russian Army’s 6th Motorized Rifle Division, had ordered his subordinates to punish soldiers who violated military discipline or disobeyed orders. (Meduza, 04.02.25)
• According to Russia’s Labor Ministry, at least 54% of soldiers who have disabilities after fighting in Ukraine are amputees. (MT/AFP, 03.31.25)
• Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage, a joint investigation by RFE/RL, Frontelligence Insight and a group of volunteers reveals. (RFE/RL, 03.29.25)
• The widow of Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski has filed a £9 million ($11.6 million) lawsuit in the U.K., alleging the network failed to provide adequate security, armored vehicles or proper insurance before her husband's 2022 death near Kyiv. (The Washington Post, 03.27.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• A New York Times investigation reveals that the United States’ involvement in the war was far deeper than previously understood.  Here are five takeaways from the investigation.
• A U.S. base in Wiesbaden, Germany, supplied the Ukrainians with the coordinates of Russian forces on their soil.
• U.S. intelligence and artillery helped Ukraine quickly turn the tide against the Russian invasion.
• The Biden administration kept moving its red lines. ... Ultimately, the U.S. military and CIA were allowed to help with strikes into Russia.
• Political disagreements in Ukraine contributed to the 2023 counteroffensive’s collapse. The 2023 counteroffensive was meant to build momentum after the first year’s triumphs. But after the partners held war games in Wiesbaden and agreed on a strategy, the plan ran headlong into Ukrainian politics. The Ukrainian armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, embraced the plan, whose centerpiece was an assault in the direction of the southern city of Melitopol that would cut off Russian supply lines. But his rival and subordinate, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, had his own plan—to impale Russian forces in the occupied eastern city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sided with him and divided up the ammunition and forces between two main fronts instead of one. The Ukrainians never did reclaim Bakhmut, and within months, the counteroffensive ended in failure. Russia now had the upper hand. (NYT, 03.30.25)
• Russian gained 99 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Nantucket island) in the past month, and overall picked up the pace of its advance. Last week’s gain of 47 square miles is a threefold increase over the previous week’s gains, according to the April 2, 202 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As of April 3, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,487 square kilometers (43,431 square miles), which constituted 18.63% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 04.04.25)

Friday, March 28, 2025

• A Russian drone attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro late on March 28 killed four people and sparked a large fire in a hotel and restaurant complex as well as multiple private homes, the regional governor said. (RFE/RL, 03.29.25)

Saturday, March 29, 2025

• Russia claimed the capture of two villages in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. The defense ministry said Moscow's forces captured the village of Shchebraki in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and Panteleimonivka in the eastern Donetsk region. Zelenskyy meanwhile said Russia had launched more than 170 drones into Ukraine overnight, striking targets in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi regions. He said four people were killed in Dnipro. (MT/AFP, 03.29.25)
• Journalists from Mediazona and BBC News Russia, working with a team of volunteers, have identified the names of 100,001 Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine using open-source data. (Media Zone, 03.29.25)

Sunday, March 30, 2025

• Russian forces have captured a village just seven kilometers from the border of Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region in their latest battlefield advance, Moscow said March 30. The village of Zaporizhzhia, which shares the same name as the southern Ukrainian region, had a population of around 200 people before the conflict. (MT/AFP, 03.30.25)

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

• The Russian government has filed complaints with the U.N. and the U.S., accusing Ukraine of violating a moratorium on strikes against its energy infrastructure, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. On April 1, Moscow and Kyiv again traded accusations that the other attacked its energy facilities. (Meduza, 04.01.25)

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

• Kyiv’s hopes for swapping territory with Moscow shrank this spring after its forces were pushed out of the roughly 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk region they seized last year. They now hold a mere 69 square kilometers, according to Ukrainian military analysis group DeepState. (FT, 04.02.25)
• A Russian ballistic missile strike killed at least four people and wounded nine others in Zelenskyy's home city of Kryvyi Rih on April 2, authorities said. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)
• Russian drone strikes killed at least one person and injured 10 in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, officials said April 2. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• A Russian drone attack late April 3 on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, killed five civilians and dramatized the diplomatic insistence on a ceasefire. Emergency crews carried black body bags from a burning apartment building as onlookers wept and hugged in the dark. Some of the 32 injured, bloodied and in shock, limped out into the street or were carried on stretchers as flames shot from the windows of their homes. (WP,
• In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said: "There's nothing inevitable in war, and the Ukrainians are in very strong defensive positions right now and are improving weekly their ability to generate force and to reinforce those positions. It is hard sitting here right now to envision a major Ukrainian offensive that clears everybody, you know, out of every square inch of Ukraine, but likewise it's very hard to envision Ukraine collapsing and losing that conflict. I do not think there's an inevitability to a Ukrainian loss.” (RBC.ua, 04.04.25 NTD, 04.04.25)
  • In his testimony Cavoli:
    • Said at the start of the full-scale war in February 2022, Russia had about 13,000 tanks on active status and in storage. “They’re starting to approach near the end of … the useful tanks in storage. So, depending on how much more they lose, that will really determine how quickly they can regenerate,” he told lawmakers. Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and over 400 air defense systems in the past year—but is on pace to replace them all,” according to Cavoli. (ISW, 04.04.25, Business Insider, 04.04.25, Defense Scoop, 04.03.25)
    • Said Ukraine has managed to solve the problem of a shortage of soldiers for defense against Russia. (RBC.ua, 04.03.25)
• The Ukrainian military command is monitoring the preparation of the Russian army for the intensification of fighting on several fronts, states Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa, according to Suspilne. According to him, this year the Russian army plans to increase its forces by 150,000 troops. This is equivalent to approximately 15 motorized infantry divisions. (RBC, 04.03.25)

Friday, April 4, 2025

• A NATO official said Russia had pushed back the Ukrainian forces who last summer launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. He added that Russia will likely eject the remaining Ukrainian troops from that area. Russia has 620,000 troops in the conflict zone, he said. Russia is also drafting 160,000 conscripts, which is more than last year, indicating that Moscow’s military aims haven’t changed. (WSJ, 04.04.25)
• Russian forces launched a large-scale drone attack on Ukraine overnight on April 3–4, killing at least four people and injuring dozens. The majority of the strikes targeted the Kharkiv and Kyiv regions. (Meduza, 04.04.25)
• Russia’s FSB said that its agents arrested a soldier who was allegedly working with the Ukrainian military to plan a suicide bomb attack on a military academy. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• During Biden’s presidency The White House prohibited sharing intelligence on the locations of “strategic” Russian leaders, like the armed forces chief, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. “Imagine how that would be for us if we knew that the Russians helped some other country assassinate our chairman,” another senior U.S. official said. “Like, we’d go to war.” Similarly, Task Force Dragon couldn’t share intelligence that identified the locations of individual Russians. (NYT, 03.20.25)

Friday, March 28, 2025

• Ukraine has secured enhanced intelligence-sharing agreements with European allies, Zelenskyy announced. The deals, set to be formalized at an April 11 meeting in Germany, will expand Ukraine's access to satellite data and defense technologies. (FT, 03.28.25)

Monday, March 31, 2025

• The Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced March 30 that the Netherlands is allocating 500 million euros (roughly $541 million) for Ukraine's Drone Line project that aims to integrate drone and ground operations in the Ukrainian military. Sweden announced on March 31 its largest military aid package to Ukraine to date, worth roughly 16 billion Swedish kronor (roughly $1.6 billion) to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, artillery, satellite communications and naval capabilities. (ISW, 03.31.25)

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Cavoli was asked about the consequences if Washington refuses to provide Kyiv with more military and intelligence assistance, as was done by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Cavoli responded as follows: "It would obviously have a rapid and deleterious effect on their ability to fight," said the NATO general. He also noted that Kyiv's forces rely on U.S. aid in intercepting missiles, as well as intelligence data that helps target Russian command posts and logistical areas. (RBC.ua, 04.04.25, NTD, 04.04.25)
  • Ukraine will receive additional F-16 fighter jets from its partners. The aircraft are already being prepared for transfer, according to Cavoli. (RBC, 04.03.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Sunday, March 30, 2025

• European leaders are resisting Russian demands to lift sanctions in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire, asserting their role in U.S.-Russia negotiations over Ukraine. While France and Britain prepare plans for a European postwar force, others are hesitant without U.S. guarantees. Europe controls key sanctions, and Macron insists it’s not time to ease them. Talks continue amid divisions over troop commitments and Washington’s unclear stance. (WP, 03.30.25)
• Germany should discuss easing sanctions on Moscow, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democrats has said, arguing that punitive measures were hurting Europe even more than Vladimir Putin. Michael Kretschmer, the CDU premier in the east German state of Saxony, became the latest in a series of politicians from Europe’s largest nation to float the idea of resuming ties with Russia — a stance that prompted harsh criticism from supporters of Ukraine.  Kretschmer said that the insistence by leaders in Germany and Europe on maintaining punitive measures against Moscow was “completely out of date and does not fit at all with what the Americans are doing right now.” (FT, 03.30.25)
• In a phone call on March 30 evening, U.K. PM Keir Starmer updated U.S. President Donald Trump on discussions between more than 30 nations supporting Kyiv in Paris this week. “The leaders agreed on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin,” said a Downing Street spokesperson. Trump and Starmer also discussed negotiations on an economic deal between the two nations. (FT, 03.30.25)

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

• A group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package to hit Russia and countries that buy its oil if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement. The punishments would include a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium, according to a draft of the bill seen by Bloomberg News. Other sanctions would also prohibit U.S. citizens from buying Russian sovereign debt, according to the draft. The congressional effort, if it passes, would give Trump additional leverage in his quest for a ceasefire. Over the weekend, he told NBC News that he was “pissed off” at Putin and threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if the Russian leader refused a ceasefire with Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 04.01.24)

• Six EU nations—Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain and the U.K.—announced readiness to intensify pressure on Russia through new sanctions following a Madrid meeting of foreign ministers. The joint statement, published by Germany's Foreign Ministry, signals coordinated action with EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell. (Meduza, 04.01.25)

• The U.K. put Russia in the top tier of its new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, meaning anyone working for the Russian state in Britain will need to declare their activity or face jail. (Bloomberg, 04.01.25)

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

• Russian officials have not received any applications from foreign businesses seeking to return to the country, a senior Russian Finance Ministry official said April 2. “We haven’t received any specific applications on this issue yet,” Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov told the business news outlet RBC, adding that many foreign companies remaining in Russia still plan to exit the market. According to Chebeskov, four companies finalized plans to leave Russia in just the past week alone. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)
• Putin authorized Armenian-owned Balchug Capital to acquire shares of Gazprom, Rosneft and other major Russian companies from Goldman Sachs through a presidential decree. The Yerevan-based investment firm, managed by brothers Vardan and David Amaryan, will take over assets including Inter RAO and Lukoil. This follows January's approval for Balchug to buy Goldman's Russian subsidiary. The Amaryans previously worked with Ruben Vardanyan, now facing life imprisonment in Azerbaijan after leaving Russia for Nagorno-Karabakh. (iStories, 04.02.25)
• The U.S. Treasury removed sanctions from Karina Rotenberg, wife of Putin ally Boris Rotenberg ($1.3 billion fortune), while imposing new sanctions on Russian sailors and businessmen allegedly involved in grain shipments from Ukraine to Yemen's Houthis. (iStories, 04.02.25)

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• FIFA president Gianni Infantino said he is hopeful Russia can be introduced back into the football fold “soon.” (NYT, 04.03.25)

Friday, April 4, 2025

• The head of Russia’s Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), a major business lobby, said April 4 that he does not expect quick sanctions relief despite optimism over a possible U.S.-Russian deal on ending the war in Ukraine. “Despite our optimism about possible agreements on Ukraine with the U.S., we understand there will be no rapid decrease in sanctions pressure,” RSPP President Alexander Shokhin was quoted as saying by the state-run news agency TASS. “We assume that 2025 will be a rather difficult year with internal and external challenges,” Shokhin said. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)

See tables below.

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• At the Pentagon in the second half of 2022, officials worried about their ability to supply enough weapons for the counteroffensive; perhaps the Ukrainians, in their strongest possible position, should consider cutting a deal. When the Joint Chiefs chairman, Gen. Mark Milley, floated that idea in a speech, many of Ukraine’s supporters (including congressional Republicans, then overwhelmingly supportive of the war) cried appeasement. (NYT, 03.30.25)

Saturday, March 29, 2025:

• Ukraine will ask for changes to a sweeping new economic deal proposed by Trump, including a pledge for more U.S. investment, according to a person familiar with the matter. A draft proposal would grant Washington control over all major future infrastructure and mineral investments in the war-torn country — and with no time limit attached. Kyiv is concerned that the deal may not only undermine its bid to join the European Union, but would require it to repay all U.S. military and economic support provided since the start of the war. (Bloomberg, 03.29.25)

Sunday, March 30, 2025

• On March 30, Trump has said he is “pissed off” with Putin for foot-dragging in talks over a ceasefire with Ukraine and has threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if no deal is done. The U.S. president chided Putin for attacking Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Kyiv’s leader. “If we’re in the midst of a negotiation, you could say that I was very angry, pissed off . . . when Putin started getting into Zelenskyy’s credibility,” Trump told NBC News. “That’s not going in the right location, you understand?” Trump said that he will impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on all Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. He said “anybody buying oil from Russia will not be able to sell their product, any product, not just oil, into the United States,” but also said there would be a “25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.” (FT, 03.30.25,  FT, 03.31.25, RFE/RL, 03.30.25, Axios, 03.31.25)
  • Later on March 30, Trump stated that there is a psychological deadline for Putin to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire, warning he would not tolerate delays. “It’s a psychological deadline,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. He went on to criticize Zelenskyy, suggesting he was wavering over a deal to grant the U.S. access to Ukraine’s mineral supply. “We made a deal on rare earth and now he’s saying, well, you know, I want to renegotiate the deal. He wants to be a member of NATO. Well, he was never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that. So if he’s looking to renegotiate the deal, he’s got big problems.” (The Hill, 03.31.25)
  • Finland’s president Alexander Stubb, who spent seven hours with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort on March 30 told FT the U.S. president was “running out of patience” with Putin over the ceasefire. “I think we’re moving in the right direction,” said Stubb. Stubb said he had proposed setting a deadline of April 20—which marks three months since Trump returned to the White House—to accept a 30-day unconditional truce on land, sea and in the air. Both western and eastern Christian churches will celebrate Easter on April 20 this year, a rare calendar alignment. (FT, 03.31.25)
• On March 30, a Russian diplomat provided additional details following Putin's recent thinly veiled demand for regime change in Ukraine by having external parties establish a “temporary international administration” in Ukraine under the auspices of the U.N. Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union Kirill Logvinov argued that the U.N. should reach an agreement between the parties to the conflict following the implementation of a ceasefire, either directly or indirectly through intermediaries, on the appropriate transfer of power to the U.N. Logvinov suggested that one of the parties, mediators or the U.N. Secretary General should submit an official appeal that the U.N. establish a temporary internal administration in Ukraine. (ISW, 03.30.25)

Monday, March 31, 2025

• The Kremlin stated Putin remains open to talks with Trump despite the U.S. president's recent criticism of stalled Ukraine ceasefire efforts. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed no call is currently scheduled but emphasized readiness for prompt contact. The announcement follows Trump's expressed frustration with both Putin and Zelenskyy, including threats of oil tariffs against Russia. Negotiations continue on bilateral relations and Ukraine, though Peskov described progress as slow due to the conflict's complexity. (MT, 03.31.25)

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

• Russia rejected U.S. ceasefire proposals for Ukraine, with Deputy FM Ryabkov stating Moscow cannot accept them without addressing the conflict's root causes. The declaration follows stalled negotiations between Washington, Kyiv and Moscow, despite Trump's push for a swift resolution. Putin previously dismissed a 30-day truce plan and suggested Zelenskyy's removal as a peace condition. Ryabkov claimed April 1 that the Trump administration is attempting "some kind of scheme" to first achieve a ceasefire and then move to "other models and schemes" to end the war. (The Moscow Times, 04.01.25, ISW, 04.02.25)
• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced Beijing's readiness to mediate in the Ukraine conflict during talks in Moscow with Lavrov, praising strengthened bilateral ties. "China is ready, taking into account the aspirations of the parties involved, to play a constructive role in the settlement" of the war, Wang said. At the start of his talks with Lavrov April 1, Wang said that China would work together with Russia "to make new contributions to the cause of peace and development for humanity." (MT, 04.01.25)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, in Kyiv on a surprise visit, has warned against falling for Russia's stalling tactics in peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.01.25)

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

• Trump believes that the Russian authorities are deliberately “slow-rolling comprehensive ceasefire talks,” according to Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich, who cited a source familiar with the talks. The source told her that Trump is “frustrated” with Putin. According to Heinrich, the White House is considering “aggressive sanctions enforcement” targeting Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—tankers used to export oil in defiance of Western restrictions. “I’m told sanctions enforcement is currently low—informally measured at about a ‘level 3 out of 10,’” she wrote. (Meduza, 04.02.25)
• At a briefing April 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is “frustrated” with both Putin and Zelenskyy. “He wants this war to end. There are men that are dying on both sides, and it’s been going on for far too long. Our team continues to be engaged with the Russians, as we are with the Ukrainians,” she said. (Meduza, 04.02.25)
• European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says there have been “no positive signs from Russia” in ongoing cease-fire negotiations over Ukraine, and that Moscow is “just playing games.” (RFE/RL, 04.02.25)

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• The White House’s aim was for a truce agreement by April 20, a goal that now seems unlikely, and talk of a possible summit soon between Trump and Putin has faded recently. (Bloomberg, 04.03.25)
• Russia is still counting on Trump to deliver an acceptable peace deal in Ukraine, though it’s prepared to continue the war if talks fail, according to people in Moscow familiar with the matter. The Kremlin is unconcerned by Trump’s threat to slap punitive secondary sanctions on Russian oil over the lack of progress toward a ceasefire, the people said. Still, Putin realizes that Trump represents his best chance of bringing the war to an end and wants to continue diplomacy, they said. (Bloomberg, 04.03.25)
• Russia would “prefer to continue certain mutual efforts to search for a settlement,” which requires time and effort to achieve, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, in response to a request for comment. “Everyone would prefer not to fight, but to talk, and not only to talk but to be heard, this is what we have with the current American administration.” (Bloomberg, 04.03.25)
• U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and a Russian negotiator met April 2 and April 3 in Washington. The U.S. is now waiting for Kirill Dmitriev, the most senior Russian official to visit Washington since the start of the Ukraine war, to report back to Putin before the two sides move forward with any next steps, according to a person familiar with the talks. (Bloomberg, 04.04.25, MT/AFP, 04.04.25)
  • Reuters reported that Dmitriev had been invited to the White House by Witkoff. The U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Dmitriev to enable the visit. (FT, 04.03.25)
  • “Steve has been really focused on solutions,” Dmitriev said in an interview with CNN April 3 after the meetings. “I think there is an understanding for how we can move to finalize the agreement, and there have been lots of discussion in that realm.” (Bloomberg, 04.04.25)
  • NBC reported that Dmitriev met with Trump administration officials and Republican lawmakers at the White House on April 3 night. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)
  • In a video briefing with Russian journalists, Dmitriev said the two sides "discussed possible cooperation in the Arctic, in rare earth metals, in various other sectors where we can build constructive and positive relations." (MT/AFP, 04.04.25) For more news on Dmitriev’s visit to the U.S., see section “Other U.S.-Russian economic issues.”
• Critics contend that the U.S. negotiation team is no match for the hardened ex-Soviet officials with decades of negotiating experience and knowledge of Ukraine. The Russian team includes Lavrov, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, former diplomat Grigory Karasin and Sergey Beseda, former head of the FSB’s Fifth Service, which oversees operations in Ukraine and the former Soviet territories. The U.S. team is not made up of experienced Russia experts, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, while Trump’s main Russia envoy, Stevev Witkoff, is a property developer and friend of the president. (WP, 04.04.25)
  • Russia’s moves have left the American side exposed multiple times throughout the process: Before meeting Witkoff last month in Moscow, for example, Putin floated an unconfirmed story that a large group of Ukrainian soldiers was surrounded as Russian forces retook territory in the Kursk region. Trump repeated the story uncritically and asked Putin to show mercy. (WP, 04.04.25)
• A senior official with NATO said Russia wasn’t observing a partial cease-fire on strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and didn’t appear to be planning to suspend its military operations. (WSJ, 04.04.25)
• The Levada Center’s latest poll shows that a majority of Russians continued to support the launch of peace negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war in March (58%). These results are not very different from the results of recent polling of Ukrainians, which showed that the share of those who favor direct negotiations with Russia climbed from 38% in January to 64% in February, according to Ukraine’s Reiting pollster. The 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which Trump has proposed, reveals a divided Russian public: 50% of Russians support the temporary truce while 41% oppose the ceasefire. In contrast to Russians, a considerably greater share of Ukrainians support a ceasefire. As many as 77% of respondents to a March poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) said they have a positive attitude toward the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. (RM, 04.03.25)

Friday, April 4, 2025

• White House officials have advised Trump not to speak with Putin until the Kremlin commits to a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, NBC News reported April 4, citing two administration sources familiar with the matter. Trump and Putin have held at least two phone calls since February. The U.S. president said March 30 that he planned to speak with Putin again this week as part of his push for warmer relations with Russia and a possible in-person meeting. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said April 4 that the administration needs to “begin to see real progress” from Russia soon, “or we’ll have conclude that they’re not interested in peace.” Rubio said Trump does not want to be “drawn into the trap of endless negotiations” with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine. “We will know soon enough—in a matter of weeks, not months—whether Russia is serious about peace or not.” (WP, 04.04.25, MT/AFP, 04.04.25, RBC.ua, 04.04.25)
• Britain and France on April 4 accused Putin of dragging his feet in ceasefire talks aimed at halting his country’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded a swift response from Moscow after weeks of U.S. efforts to secure a truce. “Now, I think it is obvious who wants peace and who wants war,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said at a NATO meeting in Brussels, referring to Russia’s strike on Kharkiv. “We must get Russia serious about peace. We must pressure Russia into peace.” Our judgment is that Putin continues to obfuscate, continues to drag his feet,” British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told reporters at NATO headquarters, standing alongside his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot in a symbolic show of unity.  Speaking to reporters with his U.K. counterpart on April 4, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot accused Russia of “flip-flopping” by continuing strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite an agreement reached last month to halt such attacks. (Bloomberg, 04.04.25, WP, 04.04.25)
• The group of Russian negotiators who met with American officials in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18 clashed over who would have a seat at the negotiating table. The dispute involved the official Russian delegation—which included Lavrov and presidential aide Yury Ushakov—and Putin’s unofficial envoy, Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) head Kirill Dmitriev. Before the meeting, Putin had told Lavrov that the delegation would include only himself and Ushakov. But in a separate meeting, Putin granted Dmitriev’s request to participate in the talks—without informing Lavrov, the source said. (MT, 04.04.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:⁵

• A secret Pentagon memo signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth prioritizes deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and defending the U.S. homeland, while reducing focus on Europe and the Middle East. Hegseth’s guidance acknowledges that the U.S. is unlikely to provide substantial, if any, support to Europe in the case of Russian military advances, noting that Washington intends to push NATO allies to take primary defense of the region. The U.S. will support Europe with nuclear deterrence of Russia, and NATO should only count on U.S. forces not required for homeland defense or China deterrence missions, the document says. (WP, 03.30.25)
  • The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee criticized Pentagon “mid-level” leadership for what he said Thursday was a misguided plan to reduce the number of U.S. troops based in Europe. The Defense Department, however, has not made public any proposal to cut force levels there. “There are some who believe now is the time to reduce drastically our military footprint in Europe,” Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said at a hearing with U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command military leadership. “I’m troubled at those deeply misguided and dangerous views held by some mid-level bureaucrats within the Defense Department.” (WP, 04.04.25)
  • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said European militaries should “step up” as the U.S. tilts away from the region to focus more on threats from Asia. Asked about a media report of potential U.S. war planning with China, Rutte acknowledged a U.S. pivot toward the Indo-Pacific region even as he reiterated that Washington has no plans to withdraw from Europe.” (Bloomberg, 04.02.25)
• Defense ministers from Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia cautioned that a potential Ukraine ceasefire would allow Russia to rapidly redeploy troops to NATO’s northeastern flank, significantly increasing security risks for the Baltics. (FT, 03.30.25)
• At a meeting of NATO's governing council last Wednesday, the U.S. prodded other members to agree to 5% of GDP as their new goal, according to people briefed on the conversation. (WSJ, 04.01.25)
• Germany activated its first permanent foreign troop deployment since WWII, stationing a 5,000-soldier armored brigade in Lithuania to reinforce NATO's eastern flank. (Politico, 04.01.25)
• A French naval patrol over the Baltic Sea, part of NATO’s Baltic Sentry operation, monitored Russian military activity and undersea infrastructure after suspected sabotage incidents. Despite limited enforcement capabilities in international waters, Baltic Sentry showcases NATO's renewed unity and vigilance in the face of growing maritime threats. (NYT, 04.01.25)
• The UK has circulated plans for European countries to establish a “supranational institution” that jointly purchases military equipment, stockpiles weapons and helps to finance large-scale rearmament across the continent. (FT, 04.02.25)
• Lithuania’s political and religious leaders joined thousands of people on Thursday to bid farewell to four American soldiers who died during a training exercise in the Baltic nation. (AP, 04.02.25)
• U.S. European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli stated on April 3 that Russia is preparing either to continue offensive operations in Ukraine or to launch a future campaign against a NATO member state. Cavoli assessed that Russia will be able to replace the significant personnel losses incurred in Ukraine ahead of a future conflict in Europe but noted that Russia's ability to replace materiel losses is contingent on Ukraine's ability to inflict greater losses. (ISW, 04.04.25)
• On April 3–4, NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels for their regular spring meeting. Much like at the defense ministerial in February, all eyes will be on the American representative. Then, it was Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; this time, it's Secretary of State Marco Rubio. (RFE/RL, 04.02.25)
  • Rubio offered a message of reassurance to his NATO counterparts on Thursday, but also a warning: President Donald Trump remains committed to the alliance, but only if Europe shoulders the burden of its own defense as America turns elsewhere. “He’s against a NATO that does not have the capabilities that it needs to fulfill the obligations that the treaty imposes upon each and every member state,” Rubio said. “… This is a hard truth, but it is a basic one that needs to be said now.” (WP, 04.04.25)
  • Rubio said the United States was "as active as it has ever been" in the alliance as he sought to allay concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump is undercutting transatlantic relations. "President Trump's made clear he supports NATO. We're going to remain in NATO," Rubio said. (RFE/RL, 04.03.25)

    • Several European countries are convinced that U.S. troops and equipment will be withdrawn, and they want to find out from Rubio how many and when so they can fill any security gaps. “We need to preempt a rapid retreat, but we’ve had nothing precise from the U.S. yet,” a senior NATO diplomat said before the meeting, briefing reporters on his country’s expectations on condition that he not be named. (WP, 04.03.25)

• In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe,
  • addressed Russian and Chinese threats beyond Ukraine. (Defense.gov, 04.03.25)
  • highlighted Russia's Arctic expansion, with new airfields enabling strikes across the polar cap—the shortest path to U.S. territory—and the Northern Fleet's attempts to penetrate the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap with submarine-launched cruise missiles threatening the Atlantic. (Defense.gov, 04.03.25)
  • said he expects Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells monthly. "Which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined," read Cavoli's statement to the committee.
  • said Russia would likely make 1,500 tanks every year, while the U.S. makes 135 tanks a year. (ISW, 04.04.25, Business Insider, 04.04.25)
  • said that Russia has expanded its capability to produce shells, cruise missiles, and first-person view (FPV) drones. (ISW, 04.04.25, Business Insider, 04.04.25, Defense Scoop, 04.03.25)
• After the ministerial meeting of NATO, Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters that despite all political statements, the decision to join the Alliance as part of the truce talks with Russia remains unchanged. “We decided in Washington that the path of Ukraine into NATO is irreversible. We are building the bridge by everything we're doing with Ukraine, getting Ukraine as interoperable as possible with NATO. But it was never promised to Ukraine that NATO membership would be part of a peace deal. I mean, that is also true,” he said. (RBC.ua, 04.04.25)
• Rutte stated Trump’s tariffs on EU and Canada don’t violate alliance rules under Article 2. The provision encourages economic collaboration but doesn’t prohibit unilateral trade measures. Rutte’s comments follow Trump’s new import duties targeting European steel and Canadian aluminum. NATO officials confirmed no formal disputes have arisen over the tariffs. Rutte stressed maintaining transatlantic security unity despite trade tensions. Analysts view the stance as preventing trade issues from fracturing military cohesion. The U.S. maintains the tariffs address national security concerns. (FT, 04.04.25)
• The Soviets had stolen NATO's secret war plans in the 1980s and discovered they were, in fact, defensive. After the Cold War, U.S. officials asked why the Soviets kept calling NATO aggressive when they knew from exquisite intel, it was not. One former Soviet official explained: "I want to address the issue of why we did not trust NATO and the fact that it was not just a defensive bloc without any plans of aggression. I think that it was due to the fact that NATO possessed more economic potential and power than the Warsaw Pact. It was hard to believe that this organization, which was much more powerful in terms of its potential, had only defensive plans. We simply did not believe that." (Status-6 X-account, 04.03.25) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A St. Petersburg court has ordered businessman Alexander Voeyvodkin to be held in pre-trial detention on charges of confidential cooperation with China (Article 275.1 of the Criminal Code). Initially placed under house arrest by a district court, the city court upgraded the restriction to detention. According to court officials, Voeyvodkin is accused of seeking confidential cooperation with China, though case details remain undisclosed. His lawyer declined to comment. The case highlights Russia's increasing crackdown on alleged foreign collaboration. (Zona.Media, 03.31.25)
• See section on Ukraine-related negotiations.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, described his dual roles and detailed a streamlined command process in which he controls nuclear forces in Europe and, if ordered, deploys them under NATO's consensus, ensuring a rapid, lethal response. "We would want those under the command of a U.S. officer," he said, stressing the importance of American leadership in preserving this deterrent. (Defense.gov, 04.03.25)
• Russia’s space-based early-warning system is reportedly down to just three operational Tundra satellites—Cosmos-2541, -2552, and -2563—after Cosmos-2546 ceased functioning in late 2024. These satellites, deployed in highly-elliptical orbits, may still provide partial coverage of northern hemisphere missile launch zones, but not reliably. The full system is meant to include ten satellites. Despite this shortfall, experts note that Russia has previously operated without such satellites for years without alarm. (RussianForces.org, 03.30.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• The Kremlin is capitalizing on Syria’s energy crisis in an effort to keep its military bases in the country, even as it refuses to hand over fugitive former dictator Bashar al-Assad to the new government. Moscow has already begun oil and gas shipments to Syria in an effort to maintain its military presence there, three sources familiar with the Kremlin’s foreign policy told The Moscow Times, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. The deliveries were launched in February at President Vladimir Putin’s instruction,. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• The director and the No. 2 official at the U.S. National Security Agency were ousted from their positions today, according to a defense official and three sources with knowledge of the matter. It was not immediately clear why Air Force Gen. Timothy Haugh and his deputy Wendy Noble were dismissed, the sources said. (nbcnews.com, 04.04.25) 

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia's budget revenues from oil and gas fell 17% year-over-year to 1.08 trillion rubles ($12.8 billion) in March, the Finance Ministry reported Thursday. The government collected approximately 230 billion rubles ($2.7 billion) less in levies, which account for one-third of its total revenue, compared to March 2024. Forced discounts on Russian oil, exacerbated by tougher U.S. sanctions and a sharp appreciation of the ruble, have significantly dented the country's budget revenues from raw materials. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)
• The co-head of Germany’s Social Democrats party and frontrunner to become the next finance minister Lars Klingbeil dismissed swirling speculation over reviving pipeline gas deliveries from Russia after a potential peace deal for Ukraine. Germany largely weaned itself off Russian energy supplies after the invasion of Ukraine three years ago and “this path must be followed consistently,” Klingbeil told public broadcaster ARD in an interview. He sees no way back “at all” and added that Germany is far from potentially normalizing relations with Russia due to the ongoing war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.31.25)
• Slovakia will receive a substantially larger portion of Gazprom PJSC gas deliveries via Turkey and Hungary through the TurkStream pipeline, easing supply concerns after flows via Ukraine were cut off. (Bloomberg, 03.31.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

Impact of Trump’s tariffs and response to them

• On April 2, Trump imposed import tariffs on about 90 countries—but notably spared Russia, raising questions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NYT that sanctions since Russia’s 2022 invasion had already halted trade. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed this to Axios, saying sanctions "preclude any meaningful trade." But this rationale is debatable—U.S.-Russia trade in 2023 totaled over $3.5 billion, more than with Angola, which was hit with a 32% tariff. It has also been argued that U.S. imports of fertilizers from Russia may have played a role, but Russia provides only 16% of fertilizers that U.S. import. It might be that Russia has been spared because Trump hopes Putin will accept a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire plan. The imposition of tariffs on many of America’s allies has sparked gloating from Russian elites. Still, not all Russians rejoiced as it is clear from our compilation of Russians reactions to the imposition below in alphabetical order. (RM, 04.03.25)

  • Sergei Markov, pro-Kremlin Russian analyst, said: “Russia sincerely wishes success to both America and Europe in their trade struggle with each other. Let Europe and America fight each other as hard as possible. We need to be tougher, tougher! EU, hit Trump! Trump, hit the EU! And even tougher!” (Markov’s Telegram account, 04.03.25, Telegram, 04.03.25)

  • Dmitry Medvedev, ex-Russian president, wrote: “Trump has severely bent the global trading system, introducing tariffs against almost the entire world. The consequences will be global. Counter tariffs will be imposed on U.S. goods. Old trade chains will be broken, but new ones will emerge. And what about us? Russia already hardly trades with America, as well as with the EU: almost all turnover is sanctioned. But we are still developing—and at a fairly decent pace: in the first quarter of 2025, growth was about 3%. Therefore, there is no need to fuss. Following the immortal advice of Lao Tzu, it is worth sitting on the shore and waiting for the corpse of the enemy to float past us. The decomposing corpse of the EU economy.” (Medvedev’s Telegram account, 04.03.25)

  • Maxim Medvedkov, former chief negotiator for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, said: “[T]hird-country supplies to Russia may increase, that is, imports that compete with domestic suppliers. It probably won't be the biggest problem if Russia imports more Harley-Davidson or American bourbon, which the European Union plans to stop buying. Consumers will be happy, and there are few domestic competing manufacturers. But if passenger cars, metals or chemicals start coming to us in increasing volumes, the problems could be significant.” (Kommersant, 04.03.25)

  • Kirill Shcherbakov, a senior lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory and Behavioral Economics at Synergy University, said: “For Russia, the new tariffs could create additional difficulties. Despite the sanctions, the U.S. remains an important economic partner for the Russian Federation, and any reduction in global demand could hit Russian exports. Russia traditionally exports such goods as metal, fertilizers and energy to the U.S…. The main blow could fall on the oil sector.” “A reduction in social spending, a weakening ruble and an increase in inflation—this is what this could lead to,” he warned. Shcherbakov and other Russian economists stressed that the fall in oil prices due to new U.S. tariffs will entail the threat of a reduction in Russian budget revenues and a deterioration in the dynamics of economic growth in the Russian Federation. (Gazeta.ru, 04.03.25)

  • Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of Russia’s Sovcombank, sees benefits for Russia in the deterioration of relations between China and the United States. "The deterioration of U.S.-China relations may lead to some improvement in Russia-U.S. and Russia-China relations. Warming relations with the U.S. may strengthen Russia's negotiating positions with China and other countries (India, etc.). Discounts on Russian raw materials may begin to decrease, which will have a positive effect on Russian exports and the ruble. And the weakening of control over compliance with sanctions by the U.S. may improve external payments and logistics in the trade of Russian goods, which is a positive factor for the ruble and a factor in slowing down inflation," the expert concluded. (Gazeta.ru, 04.03.25)

Other U.S.-Russian economic issues:

• Russia and the U.S. have begun discussions about rare earth metals projects, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said. “Unlike the Biden administration, they listen to the position of Russia, understand the worries of Russia,” he said during his visit to U.S.. He said that there is “big interest” among U.S. companies to return to Russia, after departing the country en masse in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (WSJ, 04.04.25, Meduza, 03.31.25)
• As U.S.-Russia relations thaw under President Trump, Moscow is leveraging its Arctic resources to court American investment and seek sanctions relief. The Arctic’s vast energy and mineral wealth, including LNG and rare earth metals, aligns with Trump’s business priorities and interest in countering China’s growing polar presence. Russia hopes for joint ventures and technological cooperation, though legal uncertainties, past sanctions, and Europe’s reluctance to reengage remain obstacles. The Kremlin also aims to diversify partnerships beyond China, with the Arctic serving as diplomatic terrain for renewed U.S. ties. (WP, 03.31.25)
• A number of U.S. companies have shown interest in attending Russia’s flagship St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF) this summer, its organizer said Thursday. “Although the presence of American companies at the forum has declined since 2021, representatives of the U.S. business community continue to take part, and several companies are expected to attend in 2025,” the state-run Roscongress Foundation said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump said the first presidential trip of his second term would likely include visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar as well as additional stops. “It could be next month, maybe a little bit later,” Trump said Monday in the Oval Office. Trump notably did not mention the Saudi role in hosting negotiations over a possible summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt the fighting in Ukraine. The U.S. president has previously indicated the pair could hold talks there. (Bloomberg, 03.31.25)
  • The Kremlin said Wednesday that Putin has no plans to travel to Saudi Arabia. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)
• The head of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said on Thursday that the U.S. government had switched off a satellite that transmitted its Russian-language program into Russia. "We came into work today and saw that satellite services that reach into Russia had been turned off by USAGM," RFE/RL chief executive Stephen Capus told AFP. The decision affects the 24-hour Russian-language Current Time channel's broadcasts to Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, eastern Europe and other regions. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)
• A British judge ordered President Trump to pay $820,000 in legal costs to Orbis Business Intelligence after losing a defamation lawsuit over the unverified Steele dossier’s claims of his alleged 2016 Russia activities. (Washington Post, 04.03.25)
• The Trump administration denied parole to a Russian scientist working at Harvard University, saying she is a threat to U.S. security. Kseniia Petrova was stopped by Customs and Border Patrol on Feb. 16 at Boston’s Logan Airport after a trip to France because she had failed to declare frog embryos she brought into the country as part of her research. She was previously arrested in Russia in 2022 for protesting the war in Ukraine, according to the Harvard Crimson. (Bloomberg, 04.03.25)
  • Ukrainian activists in Massachusetts are fearful that the detainment of Petrova will lead to further actions to stifle opposition to the three-year-old war. (Boston Globe, 03.31.25)[6]

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Real wages in Russia grew by a solid 6.5% year-on-year in January, according to preliminary Rosstat data. Rosstat reported that the average monthly nominal wage was 88,981 rubles ($1,056), marking a 17.1% rise in nominal terms compared to the same period of the previous year. The real wage growth of 6.5% means the purchasing power of Russian workers has improved after accounting for inflation, albeit at a more modest rate. At the same time, the economy is clearly slowing. Russia’s annual GDP growth in February stood at 0.8%, down from 3% in January. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)
• Despite being hit with unprecedented Western sanctions, the war with Ukraine has been accompanied by a noticeable increase in the well-being of Russians. A new study has revealed the extent of the domestic feel-good factor, with economists at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economics (BOFIT) finding the level of Russians’ satisfaction with their household and personal circumstances has hit its highest in a decade. By several measures, 2023 was the best year for Russians in the past decade. the total volume of household savings doubled between 2021 and 2022. (Bell, 04.02.25, BOFIT, April 2025)
• In 2024, Forbes recorded a new high: the number of Russian billionaires on its global list rose from 110 to 125—the highest ever at the time. But that record stood for only a year. In 2025, the number of Russian billionaires climbed again, reaching a new peak of 146. The top spot remains unchanged, with Lukoil shareholder Vagit Alekperov still leading the list. Another record was also broken in 2025: the combined wealth of Russian billionaires reached $625.5 billion. The previous high of $606.2 billion was recorded in 2021, before the start of what the Kremlin calls the “special military operation”* in Ukraine. (Forbes, 04.01.25) Never mind the Western sanctions.
  • 24 former "Russian" billionaires in Forbes' updated ranking are now listed as citizens or residents of other countries. They include Alexey Kuzmichev ($7.5 billion)—co-founder of Alfa Group, now listed as a citizen of France; Petr Aven ($4.7 billion)—former president of Alfa-Bank, now represents Latvia’ and Leonid Fedun ($10.4 billion)—former vice president of Lukoil, associated with Monaco. Their combined net worth is estimated at $110 billion. The changes were likely made at the request of the businessmen themselves—a standard practice for Forbes. (MT, 04.02.25)
• At least 40% of its economic growth last year was directly driven by war-related production, not including the spillover effects of increased consumption resulting from higher salaries and war-related payouts, Heli Simola, senior economist at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, estimates. (WSJ, 03.29.25)
• As new research by OutRush shows, the number of Russians that have actually returned since summer 2023 is no more than 8%. In July 2024 The Bell calculated that since 2022 the most modest estimate for the number of people that had left Russia and not returned stood at around 650,000. (Bell, 04.03.25)
• Russia’s recent oil spill off the Black Sea coast has caused an estimated 84.9 billion rubles ($1 billion) in environmental damage, the government environmental watchdog Rosprirodnadzor said Friday. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)
• The Kremlin is reportedly exploring ways to "normalize" Russian society in case of a Ukraine ceasefire, including potentially removing some names from the "foreign agents" list and reinstating popular TV host Ivan Urgant, according to Verstka's sources. However, officials remain divided over whether such measures signal genuine intent or are merely tactical maneuvers, with some doubting Russia can ever return to pre-war normalcy. (Meduza, 03.28.25)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma voted Thursday to strip lawmaker Yury Napso of his seat after he failed to attend parliamentary sessions for two years while still collecting his official salary. Napso, a member of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) and a State Duma deputy since 2007, has been on sick leave since April 2023, according to lawmakers. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)
• Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev's family owns real estate worth an estimated 7.5 billion rubles across Russia, UAE, and Europe, according to an Anti-Corruption Foundation investigation. (Zona.Media, 04.01.25)
• A Moscow court sentenced investigative journalists Roman Anin and Yekaterina Fomina to eight and a half years in prison each in absentia for spreading “fake news” about the Russian military’s actions in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.31.25)
• A Russian court declared former presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin bankrupt over past campaign debt, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Thursday. Nadezhdin, 61, sought to challenge President Vladimir Putin in the March 2024 presidential race on an anti-war platform but was barred from running. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• As if to punctuate the Russian president’s disinterest in a peace deal, Putin this week moved to expand the size of his military, issuing a spring call-up for 160,000 men ages 30 and younger from April to July—the highest number of conscripts since 2011, according to WP’s April 4 editorial. The Kremlin and Defense Ministry insist conscripts are not sent into combat and that the draft is unrelated to the war in Ukraine. However, Ukraine has repeatedly claimed to have captured Russian conscripts, according to AFP. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has depleted Russia’s military personnel so much that the Kremlin has been relying on prison inmates and North Korean soldiers, according to the WP editorial.   (RM, 04.04.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Vladimir Putin’s distrust of Russia’s military has led to growing dominance of the FSB over the armed forces, following the stalled Ukraine invasion. FSB adviser Sergei Beseda’s role in ceasefire talks signals the agency’s rehabilitation despite early intelligence failures. The FSB’s counter-intelligence unit, now Russia’s largest, purges dissenters and monitors generals, evoking Soviet-era tactics. After Prigozhin’s 2023 mutiny exposed army discontent, arrests of commanders like Ivan Popov and Vadim Shamarin intensified. Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, appointed post-Shoigu, operates under tight Kremlin control, reflecting Putin’s prioritization of loyalty over military efficacy. (The Economist, 04.03.25)
• Putin ordered sweeping measures against phone and internet scams, including a ban on government and bank employees from using foreign messaging apps. Employees of government agencies, credit institutions and telecom operators will be barred from communicating via foreign messaging apps in an official capacity, according to Putin’s order. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)
• Putin ordered the creation of a service within Russia’s Interior Ministry tasked with overseeing citizenship and the registration of foreigners. (MT/AFP, 04.02.25)
• Russia's security agencies face severe staffing shortages, with Interior Minister Kolokoltsev reporting 172,000 vacancies (18.8% deficit) and prison service head Gostev citing 54,000 missing staff (23% deficit). Courts lack 6,500 judges (20% shortfall). The shortages appear driven by higher military wages during wartime, drawing personnel from law enforcement to combat roles. The deficit persists despite similar reports in late 2024, suggesting structural workforce challenges beyond temporary mobilization effects. (iStories, 04.02.25)
• Argentine authorities detained 14 people, including Russian sect leader Konstantin Rudnev, in a human trafficking case in San Carlos de Bariloche. Most suspects are Russian nationals. The investigation began after a pregnant Russian woman with visible injuries sought hospital help while being guarded by two women. Six female suspects (five Russians, one Mexican) monitoring her were released despite signs of severe malnutrition. Rudnev, convicted in Russia in 2013, led the "Ashram Shambhala" sect accused of exploitation. (Zona.Media, 03.31.25)
• A Russian court sentenced five men to 8–9.5 years in prison for their roles in the 2023 anti-Jewish riot at Makhachkala airport. The defendants—Imam Selimkhanov, Rustam Salavov, Jabrail Kairbekov, Magomedali Shanavazov, and Abusupiyan Dzhanayev—were convicted of mass disorder and transport security violations. Prosecutors said the October 29, 2023 violence targeted Israeli citizens, involving property destruction and assaults. The riot occurred when over 1,500 people stormed the airport searching for Jewish passengers arriving from Tel Aviv. (Zona.Media, 03.31.25)

• Chechen leader Kadyrov appointed his 17-year-old son Adam as oversight curator for the regional Interior Ministry, state media reported. (iStories, 04.01.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia's Prosecutor General has requested the Supreme Court to lift the ban on Taliban activities in the country. (Meduza, 03.31.25)
• The Kremlin on Monday criticized a French court’s decision to bar far-right leader Marine Le Pen from running for office for five years, calling it a politically motivated attack on democratic norms. (MT/AFP, 03.31.25)
• CDU foreign minister candidate Johann Wadephul warned many Germans remain in denial about Russia's threat, calling Putin's regime Europe's most acute danger. The Merz ally cited persistent pro-Russia sentiments in eastern Germany and business circles advocating renewed energy ties. (FT, 04.02.25)
• Bulgaria’s center-right government survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote (150-54) initiated by the pro-Russia Vazrazhdane party, which opposed its pro-Western policies, Ukraine support, and sanctions on Moscow. (WP, 04.03.25)
• Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik met with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a surprise visit to Moscow. Dodik, who left Bosnia even though he's the target of an international arrest warrant over accusations that he flouted the Balkan country's constitution, posted a video of himself on social media on April 1 in front of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier along the wall of the Kremlin." (RFE/RL, 04.01.25)
• Russia deployed more than 120 rescuers, medics and sniffer dogs to Myanmar following a devastating earthquake that struck the Southeast Asian country on Friday, the Emergency Situations Ministry announced over the weekend. (MT/AFP, 03.31.25)
• Russia has agreed to provide arms and military training to a newly formed joint force between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The Kremlin will use military instructors already present in the three West African nations, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Moscow on Thursday. “Russia is ready to contribute to the Alliance of Sahel States’s joint force,” he said. “This is a necessary step to equip the trilateral armed force,” Lavrov told a joint press conference with his three counterparts. (Bloomberg, 04.03.25)
• Russian authorities on Thursday designated the Elton John AIDS Foundation (EJAF) as an “undesirable” organization, outlawing the HIV treatment and prevention group’s activities in the country. (MT/AFP, 04.03.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine's parliamentary faction leader Davyd Arakhamia denied reports of election preparations, stating no such meetings occurred and elections would only follow martial law's end. His remarks contradict The Economist's claim that Zelensky had instructed staff to plan for a post-ceasefire vote. Ukrainian law mandates at least 60 days of campaigning, with officials noting voter list updates could take three months. All major parties reportedly agree elections should occur six months after wartime restrictions lift. (Meduza, 04.01.25, The Economist, 03.30.25.)
• Ukraine’s dollar bonds fell to the lowest level in four months after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, dampening expectations for a quick ceasefire agreement. Ukraine’s bonds were worst performers in emerging market fixed-income indexes on Monday amid a risk-off day for global financial markets. The price of the sovereign’s dollar note due in 2034 tumbled nearly 2 cents to below 53 cents on the dollar. (Bloomberg, 03.31.25)
• Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has accused five people of the alleged involvement in a large-scale scheme to embezzle state funds for military procurement at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The suspects were allegedly involved in embezzlement of 733 million hryvnia ($17.7 million) between August and December 2022, and the attempted embezzlement of 788 million hryvnia ($19 million), according to a statement. (OCCRP, 04.04.25, The Straits Times, 04.02.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia on Friday expelled three Moldovan diplomats in a tit-for-tat move after Chisinau kicked out Russian embassy officials accused of helping a pro-Moscow lawmaker flee the country. (MT/AFP, 04.04.25)
• The European Union and Central Asian countries have kicked off their first-ever high-level summit as the bloc eyes new trade and infrastructure investments while aiming to significantly elevate Brussels' ties with the region, according to a draft document for the meeting seen by RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 04.03.25)
• Latvia’s parliament has passed a new law requiring citizens of countries outside the E.U., NATO, and the OECD to provide detailed information about the purpose of their visit before each entry into the country. (Meduza, 04.04.25)
• For reactions in the other post-Soviet republics to Trump’s tariffs follow this link.

IV. Quotable and notable

• Kurt M. Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state and now chairman of the Asia Group, said: “When Chinese and Russian leaders meet, one of the foremost topics on the agenda is anticipating how the U.S. will seek to split them.” (WP, 04.03.25)
• “So you could imagine Trump taking a similar move—already he’s using all of these wartime statutes for deportations, revoking visas, national security exceptions on tariffs, et cetera—you can see the line of travel there justifying this,” Fiona Hill, former White House Russia adviser and member of Harvard’s board of overseers said, in reference to Putin’s decision to step aside so that he could honor a constitutional provision limiting presidents to a maximum of two terms, but then come back. (LA Times, 04.03.25)
• Celeste Wallander, then the assistant defense secretary for international security affairs, recalled, “Milley would always say, ‘You’ve got a little Russian army fighting a big Russian army, and they’re fighting the same way, and the Ukrainians will never win.’” (NYT, 03.30.25)
• One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his NATO counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said. (NYT, 03.20.25)
• “The Ukrainians sometimes saw the Americans as overbearing and controlling—the prototypical patronizing Americans. The Americans sometimes couldn’t understand why the Ukrainians didn’t simply accept good advice. Where the Americans focused on measured, achievable objectives, they saw the Ukrainians as constantly grasping for the big win, the bright, shining prize. The Ukrainians, for their part, often saw the Americans as holding them back.” (NYT, 03.20.25)
• Mark Burton and Kate Sullivan: “Trump’s fixation with Ukraine’s commodities has raised questions about what the nation actually has to offer. While the U.S. president refers to the proposed agreement as a “rare earths” deal, Ukraine has no major rare-earth reserves that are internationally recognized as economically viable. It is, however, an established producer of coal, iron ore, uranium, titanium, and magnesium, and expanding those sectors could be profitable for the U.S.” (Bloomberg, 03.24.25)

Useful data:

"Which of the following opinions about the return of Western companies to Russia do you mostly agree with?"(Levada, % of Russian respondents, March 2025)

"Are there any brands, companies, or trademarks that left Russia, which you miss and would like to see return?"
(Levada, Open-ended question, % of Russian respondents, March 2025)

Footnotes

1. Stubb said he had proposed setting a deadline of April 20—which marks three months since Trump returned to the White House—to accept a 30-day unconditional truce on land, sea and in the air, according to FT.
2. For Putin’s description of the root causes, see his speech at RF MFA in June 2024.
3. NBC reported that Dmitriev met with Trump administration officials and Republican lawmakers at the White House on April 3 night. In a video briefing with Russian journalists, Dmitriev said he and his U.S. counterparts also "discussed possible cooperation in the Arctic, in rare earth metals, in various other sectors where we can build constructive and positive relations,” according to MT/AFP.
4. During NATO’s April 3-4 ministerial in Brussels, Rubio offered a message of reassurance to his NATO counterparts, but also a warning: Trump remains committed to the alliance, but only if Europe shoulders the burden of its own defense as America turns elsewhere, according to WP.
5. For an estimate of how many divisions Europe has, visit this link: https://voxeurop.eu/en/europe-defense-capabilities/
6. For Axios’ tracking of such detentions and deportations from the U.S., visit this link: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/20/tourists-us-residents-detained-arrested-deported-ice-immigration-trump
7. Sources: RM research, News.am, and Telegram account of pro-Kremlin Russian analyst Sergei Markov.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am Eastern Standard Time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Seth Wenig.