Ukraine: Four Scenarios
Join CSIS for a panel discussion on the future of the conflict in Ukraine, a key issue for U.S.-Russian relations. RSVP here.
The crisis in international dialogue with Russia is particularly acute when it comes to Ukraine, the main locus of the breakdown’s origins. Except for the relatively narrow focus on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, strategic dialogue about the crisis among Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans, and Russians is virtually nonexistent. This breakdown has the potential to be highly destabilizing as mistrust grows and misunderstandings multiply, creating the possibility for the conflict to escalate.
To help ameliorate this challenge on the Track II level, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung's Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe brought together a select, high-level group of Russians, Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians – a total of eight participants – to develop four long-term scenarios for Ukraine. The idea was to agree on a range of plausible outcomes of the crisis for Ukraine (in a ten-year time frame) as an analytical, rather than normative exercise.
Several of the authors will present the publication that resulted. Julia Gurganus, Visiting Scholar with the Russia and Eurasia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will provide comments. Olga Oliker, director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, will moderate.
Speakers:
Oleksandr Chalyi, President of Grant Thornton (Ukraine); Former First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine;
Reinhard Krumm, Head of Office, FES Vienna
Oleksiy Semeniy, Director, Institute for Global Transformations
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND
Julia Gurganus, Visiting Scholar, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Olga Oliker (Moderator), Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program