Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
interview

Fiona Hill: Putin’s Running Out of Time

Foreign Policy July 14, 2022 Recommended Reads
In this interview, the former White House Russia adviser says Putin wants the Ukraine conflict over with.
Clues from Russian Views

Sanctions Trap. Which Sanctions Work, Which Do Not and Which Are More Dangerous for Russia Than They Seem

Sergey Aleksashenko, Oleg Buklemishev, Oleg Vyugin, Kirill Rogov and Yulia Starostina July 12, 2022
In this analysis for The Bell, experts discuss which Western sanctions work, which don’t and how they impact the Russian economy.
article

The Russian Military’s People Problem

Dara Massicot May 18, 2022 Recommended Reads
The culture of indifference to its personnel fundamentally compromises the Russian military’s efficacy, no matter how extensively it has been modernized.
Clues from Russian Views

Could Russia Use the Nuclear Option?

Pyotr Topychkanov May 16, 2022
The threat of a nuclear strike on Ukraine is being hotly discussed in the media and social networks. But there are reasons to be both skeptical and wary of this threat.
article

Putin’s Invasion Was Immoral but Not Irrational

Mark F. Cancian May 10, 2022 Recommended Reads
Evaluating Putin’s decision requires capturing what was known at the time, not what became evident later.
article

Putin’s Perilous Imperial Dream

Cristina Florea May 10, 2022 Recommended Reads
Underpinning Putin’s righteous battle for Russians in Ukraine is an organic vision of Russian nationhood defined by blood and cultural and spiritual traits rather than by political contract or choice.
article

How Silent Assent Made Bucha Possible

Andrei Kolesnikov April 07, 2022 Recommended Reads
Those who approve or stay silent bear, at the very least, collective responsibility for what is happening in their own country and what the state is doing.
article

Decoding Putin’s Speeches: The Three Ideological Lines of Russia’s Military Intervention in Ukraine

Marlene Laruelle and Ivan Grek February 25, 2022 RM Exclusives
Putin's Feb. 21 and Feb. 24 speeches have confirmed the construction of a narrative legitimizing the military intervention in Ukraine along three key ideological lines: a historical one, an ethnic one and a political one.
article

Parsing the Evidence: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

RM Staff January 27, 2022 RM Exclusives
With reams of analysis written to answer this question, we summarize a handful of experts who have backed their assertions with abundant research.
article

The HMS Defender Incident: What Happened and What Are the Political Ramifications?

Dmitry Gorenburg July 01, 2021 RM Exclusives
Inadvertent escalation poses the greatest risk of a political confrontation between Russia and NATO resulting in armed conflict, and as long as one or both sides believe that it is beneficial to use their military forces to make political points, we should expect more incidents of this type to take place.
article

Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)?

Simon Saradzhyan April 14, 2021 Recommended Reads
Not a day goes by without dire warnings of an imminent Russian military invasion of Ukraine, but Putin is unlikely to order an offensive against Ukraine unless Zelensky makes the first military move on the Donbass chessboard.
explainer

The ‘Who, What, When’ of Russia Sanctions: A Cheat Sheet for Laymen

Alexey Eremenko September 26, 2018 RM Exclusives
This explainer spells out the major sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and EU since 2014: who has been targeted; what behaviors are to be punished or deterred; what activities have been restricted; and for how long.
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