Analysis

This listing contains all the analytical materials posted on the Russia Matters website. These include: RM Exclusives, commissioned by Russia Matters exclusively for this website; Recommended Reads, deemed particularly noteworthy by our editorial team; Partner Posts, originally published by our partners elsewhere; and Future Policy Leaders, pieces by promising young scholars and policy thinkers. Content can be filtered by genre and subject-specific criteria and is updated often. Gradually we will be adding older Recommended Reads and Partner Posts dating back as far as 2011.
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Why the Wagner Group Cannot Be Easily Absorbed by the Russian Military—and What That Means for the West

Kimberly Marten September 01, 2023 RM Exclusives
In one shape or another, the Wagner Group is likely to continue operating in the interests of Putin’s regime outside Russia, regardless of whether it comes under MoD command and the costs of doing so.
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Despite Russian Reliance on Iranian Drones, Tehran’s Leverage Over Moscow Is Limited

Mark N. Katz December 01, 2022 RM Exclusives
Russia's desire to maintain good relations with America's traditional allies in the region will serve to limit what Moscow is willing to do for Tehran.
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Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports Would be Futile; West Should Opt for Tariff Instead

Daniel P. Ahn July 14, 2022 RM Exclusives
Fundamentally, to depress Russian oil revenue Western leaders have only two sets of policies under their control: to increase Western oil supply and to decrease Western oil demand.
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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment

World Bank May 01, 2022 Recommended Reads
The war has direct effects on the firms operating in Russia and Ukraine and on firms relying on suppliers from those markets. But the shock caused by the war goes well beyond these two countries, as geopolitical risks have increased globally.
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Macron Will Win Time for Diplomacy With Russia, Not Go Rogue

Emre Peker, Mujtaba Rahman and Alex Brideau February 11, 2022 Recommended Reads
The Elysee’s engagement with the Kremlin was driven by Macron’s immediate desire to win time for diplomacy and avert war, which he managed.
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Russia Has Been Warning About Ukraine for Decades. The West Should Have Listened.

Anatol Lieven January 25, 2022 Recommended Reads
While the terms of any compromise with Russia over Ukraine would involve some tough negotiation, we can seek such a compromise without fearing that this will open the way for further Russian moves to destroy NATO and subjugate eastern Europe.
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Five Years After Russia Declared Victory in Syria: What Has Been Won?

Thomas Schaffner March 18, 2021 RM Exclusives
Has the intervention paid off or has Obama’s 2015 prediction that the operation would end in a “quagmire” for Russia come true? An assessment of some key costs and benefits generated by Russia’s intervention in Syria.
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Alternative History: Would Russia in NATO and EU Be Game Changer in West’s Rivalry With China?

Simon Saradzhyan November 20, 2019 RM Exclusives
Quantitative measurements show that while Russia’s decision to align with the West rather than with China might not have been a game changer, it would have diminished the latter’s might vis-à-vis the West.
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Measuring National Power: Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline?

Simon Saradzhyan and Nabi Abdullaev May 04, 2018 RM Exclusives
Russia’s standing in the world—both real and perceived—has a profound impact on U.S. security and policies, as well as on Moscow's actions. This report offers a unique quantitative stocktaking of Russia’s national power.
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NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard

Svetlana Savranskaya and Tom Blanton December 12, 2017 Recommended Reads
Newly declassified documents lend credence to claims that Western leaders repeatedly reassured their Soviet counterparts in the early 1990s that NATO would not budge "one inch eastward."
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Russian-Saudi Rapprochement? Iran and Economic Strain Will Make It Tough

Mark N. Katz September 28, 2017 RM Exclusives
Ties between Moscow and Riyadh remain fragile. Saudi Arabia’s main concern is Iran, while Russia wants both investment and sway in the Middle East. Balancing their geopolitical and economic interests will not be easy.
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