Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

March 17, 2026, update: RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Feb. 17–March 17, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area roughly equivalent to one and a half Manhattan Islands) during that period. That’s in contrast to the estimated 127 square miles they gained during the previous four-week period (Jan. 20–Feb. 17, 2026). According to ISW data, this past week (March 10–17, 2026), Russia notched a positive gain of 5 square miles, returning to the total estimated control of 45,783 square miles of Ukrainian territory it last achieved on Feb. 24, 2026.¹ According to Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community in 2026, “During the past year, Russia has maintained the upper hand in its war against Ukraine and sees little reason to stop fighting so long as its forces continue to gain ground.”

Territorial Control (figures as of March 17, 2026)²

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +29,158 square miles. 13% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the U.S. state of Illinois).
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, that Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +45,783 square miles. About 20% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.)³
• In the period of Feb. 17–March 17, 2026: Russian forces lost 33 square miles of Ukrainian territory (area of about one and a half Manhattan Islands), according to ISW data. During the previous four-week period of Jan. 20–Feb. 17, 2026, Russian forces gained 127 square miles, according to ISW data.
• In the past week (March 10–17, 2026): Russia gained 5 square miles of Ukrainian territory, according to ISW data. During the previous week of March 3–10, 2026, Russian forces lost 30 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to ISW data.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions was 4 square miles over the past week (March 10–17, 2026), according to ISW data, the same as the previous week (March 3–10, 2026). 
• According to RM’s measurements using ISW data, from March 18, 2025, to March 17, 2026, Russia captured 1,977 square miles (about half the size of Hawaii’s Big Island)—about 0.8% of Ukraine’s total territory of 233,062 square miles at the time of its independence in 1991.
• Russia’s average monthly gains for the past 12 months were 170 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–February 2026 (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

• 1,000,000 Russian military casualties (killed and wounded), according to a late February 2026 estimate that a highly-informed former high-ranking Western official shared with RM.⁴
• 250,000-300,000 Ukrainian military casualties (killed and wounded), according to a late February 2026 estimate that a highly-informed former high-ranking Western official shared with RM.⁵

Civilian fatalities⁶

• Russia: 8,000 killed, according to RF government.
• Ukraine: 15,954 killed, according to U.N.

Military vehicles and equipment⁷

• Russia: 24,268 lost. 
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,931.
  • Aircraft: 361.⁸
  • Naval vessels: 29.
• Ukraine: 11,626 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,669.
  • Aircraft: 194.
  • Naval vessels: 42.

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • Internally displaced: 23,000 as of February 2026.
  • 1,000,000 (0.7% of Russia’s 2022 population) left Russia for economic or political reasons in the first year of the full-scale war. Between 15% and 45% of those who had left have returned since then, so, between 550,000 and 850,000 people have not returned to Russia.
• Ukraine: 10,600,000 displaced Ukrainians, 24% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44,000,000, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3,700,000.  
  • International refugees: 6,900,000.

Economic impact⁹

• Russia’s cumulative economic growth in 2022–2025: 8%.
  • 0.9% GDP growth estimate for 2025.
  • Budget deficit for 2025: 2.6% of GDP.
  • Russian ruble:  0.01231 U.S. dollars. 5% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 15.2%.
• Ukraine’s cumulative economic growth (negative) in 2022-2025: -21.2%
  • 2% GDP growth estimate for 2025.
  • Budget deficit estimate for 2025: 18.5% of GDP.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02269 U.S. dollars. -32% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 22.5%.

Infrastructure

Check out RM’s timeline of infrastructure damage here.

• Russia estimates: 
  • An investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
  • As of October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to the Russian energy market data. According to Reuters’ November 2025, estimate, however, Russia's oil processing has actually fallen just 3% this year despite Ukraine's drone attacks.
  • In January 2026, Russia’s western border regions, such as the Belgorod Oblast, saw weeks‑long outages caused by Ukrainian strikes, with heating at only 50% capacity and thousands without power as of early February 2026.
  • Around 100,000 customers in the western Russian city of Belgorod were without running water on Feb. 9 after power surges caused by Ukrainian airstrikes, MT reported on Feb. 9.
• Ukraine estimates: 
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Some 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation was destroyed as of May 2025.
  • Some 50% of all of Ukraine’s hydropower installations were damaged and 40% destroyed as of May 2025.
  • Ukraine's energy infrastructure was operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
  • In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of the winter of 2025–2026. 
  • Ukraine's overall electricity consumption has fallen by around 30% since the launch of the Russian invasion, according to an October 2025 estimate.
  • ISW estimated in December 2025 that Russia’s strike campaign was close to splitting Ukraine’s power grid east–west, with eastern regions “at the brink” of blackout and Kyiv also at risk while Washington Post reported that Kyiv residents were facing up to 16 hours a day without power.
  • As a result of the Russian attacks, Ukraine’s available generating capacity has fallen from 33.7 GW at the start of the full‑scale invasion to about 14 GW as of January 2026, according to The Economist. The resulting outages have produced blackouts of several days in parts of Ukraine, The Economist wrote in January 2026.¹⁰
  • Russian attacks on Ukraine’s rail network “have caused $5.8 billion in damages since the start of the invasion,” according to a December 2025 report by WSJ.
  • Ukrainian energy provider DTEK’s CEO said in late January 2026 Ukraine has lost about 70% of its generation capacity and many civilians get only 3–4 hours of electricity daily, driving roughly 600,000 people to leave Kyiv, according to a Jan. 29, 2026, report by Istories. DTEK then said Russia’s Feb. 3 assault “dealt the most powerful blow to the energy sector since the beginning of the year,” WP reported.
  • From early October 2025 through mid‑January 2026, Ukraine’s intelligence service logged 256 drone and missile strikes on energy facilities: 11 on hydroelectric plants, 94 on thermal plants and 151 on substations. Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal said on Jan. 16 that “there is not a single power plant in Ukraine that the enemy has not attacked” and that “thousands of megawatts of generation have been knocked out,” according to The New Yorker.
  • Every power plant in Ukraine has been damaged by Russian attacks, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s February 2026 estimate.
  • At one point, about half of Kyiv’s 12,000 apartment buildings lost heating because of the Russian attacks over the last week, according to a February 2026 estimate reported by Financial Times.
  • At least two-thirds of Ukraine’s energy production capacity has been destroyed, damaged or occupied by Russia since the fall of 2024, according to an estimate by Western military officials reported by Times of London in late February 2026.
  • Ukraine has restored 3.5 gigawatts of generating capacity at thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, and hydropower plants out of more than 9 gigawatts damaged by Russian strikes, First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Ukrainian parliament in mid-March 2026, according to a Korrespondent.net report.  

Popular support

• Russia: A record high of 67% support peace negotiations.¹¹
• Ukraine: 25% believe the current negotiations will lead to lasting peace in Ukraine.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Drone supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Endnotes

1. In the period of March 10–17, 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the adversary near Berezove, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian OSINT group associated with the country’s MoD. The same period saw Russian forces advance near Bessalivka, Stupochky, Udachne, in Berestok, near Fedorivka Druha, Yablunivka, Horikhove, Pishchane, Makiivka, Zahirne, Myrne, near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Minkivka, in Vasyukivka, Fedorivka Druha and Kleban-Byk, according to DeepState. In addition, according to a Reuters report on March 16, chief of Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov has claimed this week that Russia has taken control of 12 settlements in Ukraine in ​the first two weeks of March as part of advances along the front line in eastern and ‌southern Ukraine. In contrast, Ukrainian leadership has claimed Ukrainian forces have recaptured 400 square kilometers (154 square miles) in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast in recent weeks, Reuters reported on March 16.
2. Production note. RM’s map graphics incorporate publicly shared map features from ISW, ESRI, AParrish1 (European countries) and collab2021_Fleming (Black Sea).
3. RM’s methodology sums three ISW map layers to arrive at its totals each week rather than two (specifically, RM adds “Claimed Russian control over Ukrainian territory” to “Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory” and “Assessed Russian Advances in Ukraine”). 
4. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. Almost 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli. 84,568 missing, according to an April 2025 estimate by the Ukrainian Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
   8. Some 1,000,000 in casualties, including 240,000 KIAs, according to then-British spy chief Richard Moore’s September 2025 estimate.
   9. Some 1,168,000 killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s December 2025 estimate.
   10. 1,100,000 casualties, according to ex-CIA director William Burns’ January 2026 interview in FT.
   11. 1,200,000 Russian military casualties (killed, wounded and missing) with as many as 325,000 killed between February 2022 and December 2025, according to CSIS’s January 2026 estimate.
   12. 1,000,000Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, according to a February 2026 estimate by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
   13. 1,200,000 casualties, including killed and wounded, according to a February 2026 estimate by Western officials reported by Bloomberg. The unnamed officials estimate that this casualty total includes 430,000 casualties in 2024 and 415,000 casualties in 2025.
   14. More than 200,000 identified as killed, according to a February 2026 estimate by Mediazona and BBC.
   15. 1,100,000-1,400,000 casualties including 230,000–430,000 dead, according to a February 2026 estimate by The Economist.
   16. 1,200,000 casualties, including 325,000 killed, according to a February 2026 estimate by Wall Street Journal.
5. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate. 35,000 missing.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 100,000 killed, according to Zelenskyy’s April 2025 estimate.
   5.  400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
   6. 73,000–140,000 killed, according to The Economist’s July 2025 estimate.
   7. 140,000 killed, according to BBC’s December 2025 estimate.
   8. 500,000–600,000 Ukrainian military casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025, according to CSIS’s January 2026 estimate 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, according to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s February 2026 estimate.
   9. 500,000–600,000 killed, wounded or missing, according to a February 2026 estimate by RFE/RL.
6. RM cannot verify military or civilian casualty figures or equipment losses estimated by various sources cited in this card.
7. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.  
8. Oryx has not updated tallies of either Russian or Ukrainian lost aircraft and naval vessels since Jan. 7, 2026.
9. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
10. Earlier, a different estimate of Ukraine’s generating capacity and damage to it was provided by RM and CSIS: as of 2024, some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.
11. In addition to the Levada Center’s survey, one should keep in mind that The Russian Field pollster surveyed Russians on the conflict in mid-February 2026 and found that 53% of respondents believe a transition to peace negotiations should be made while 38% favored the continuation of the military operation.

* This card was produced by RM staff.