4 Things to Know

1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may be edging toward painful compromise over control of Donbas, with two of his advisers telling Simon Shuster of The Atlantic that Kyiv may be ready to accept giving up control of land in that eastern region as part of a U.S.-brokered peace. Shuster reports that, to legitimize any deal involving territorial loss, Zelenskyy is weighing a spring referendum,¹ possibly coupled with long-delayed presidential elections to renew his mandate. At the same time, Shuster notes, Zelenskyy insists he will not accept a “bad deal” and would rather keep fighting if that is what’s required for a durable settlement. According to The Atlantic, Zelenskyy is appealing directly to Donald Trump’s self‑interest, arguing that ending Europe’s deadliest war in generations would secure Trump’s legacy and boost Republicans in the midterm elections. On Feb. 11 Financial Times reported that under U.S. pressure, Zelenskyy had planned to announce on Feb. 24 a plan for wartime presidential elections and a referendum on a peace deal with the latter to be finalized in June. Later on Feb. 11, however, Zelenskyy’s office denied the FT report, according to Telegraph. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are to participate in a new round of U.S.-led peace talks in Geneva on February 17–18.
2. Russia Matters’ analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 13–Feb. 10, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 182 square miles (area roughly equivalent to 2 Nantucket Islands) of Ukraine’s territory during that period. This constitutes an increase over the 79 square miles Russia gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 16, 2025–Jan. 13, 2026), according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Further down the road, Russia is reportedly preparing a Summer 2026 offensive likely starting as early as late April and focused on the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and/or Orikhiv–Zaporizhzhia City axes, according to ISW.
3. Russian armed forces are delivering the progress, which Putin demands, at a slower pace and higher cost than at any point in the war, according to Financial Times. These advances have come at a rate of just 15 to 70 meters a day in Russia’s most prominent offensives since it gained the upper hand on the battlefield in 2024—slower than in almost any war in the past 100 years, according to a January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cited by FT.² In some areas Russia’s grueling offensive operations have ground to a pace slower than the Battle of the Somme, some analysts told FT. And, at least 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict, according to the CSIS report. While it is true that UK and French forces at the Somme advanced faster than Russian forces along some areas of the frontline today, it is important to note that the FT omitted additional figures from the CSIS study which indicated that Russian forces are advancing far quicker than UK/French forces along other areas of the front. For example, Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia are advancing at a rate of 297 meters per day, which is much faster than the British/French advance of 80 meters per day at the Somme. Man-for-man, Russia can outlast Ukraine even if they lose two soldiers for every Ukrainian they kill. Russia reportedly recruited 425,000 soldiers in 2025, more than enough to make up for casualties. Various estimates for Russian desertions/AWOL range from 50–75 thousand. However, 235,000 Ukrainians have reportedly gone AWOL with another 54,000 deserting. More importantly these numbers rose by 175,000 and 24,000 respectively between September 2024 and 2025 alone.
4. When U.S. Vice President JD Vance came to the Munich Security Conference last year, he stunned his hosts by telling them that suppression of free speech in EU was a bigger security risk than Russian military aggression, RFE/RL reminds us. This year, with the U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Europeans may hope for an easier ride, according to Ray Furlong of RFE/RL. As he travelled to Europe for the conference, Rubio has spoken of a "new era” and called ending Russia’s war on Ukraine a priority driven by the “unimaginable suffering” from Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system. Rubio, who is to speak MSC on Feb. 14, expects to meet Zelenskyy on the conference’s sidelines even though he has reportedly skipped a planned “Berlin Format” meeting with leaders from Germany, Poland, Finland, and EC on Ukraine. Speaking at MSC-2026 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Europe should negotiate only once Russia is “economically, politically and militarily exhausted.”³ Prior to MSC-2026 a bipartisan group of eight former U.S. ambassadors to NATO and eight former supreme allied commanders in Europe issued a joint letter calling the alliance a “force‑multiplier” for U.S. power. For information on MSC events, including panels with participation of Belfer Center experts, please follow the link to MSC-2026 agenda.⁴

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The International Atomic Energy Agency has expanded its Ukraine mission to two additional high‑voltage substations critical for nuclear plants, bringing the total number of IAEA team visits to such facilities to 12. The move follows Russia’s Feb. 7 mass strike on the grid, which forced all but one Ukrainian reactor to reduce output and temporarily disconnected several lines. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said agency staff already stationed across Ukraine are providing “first‑hand” data on how these attacks affect nuclear safety; one team visiting a western substation had to evacuate during an air raid, while teams at Khmelnytskyi and Rivne NPPs were ordered to shelter. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26)
• Russian scientists, aboard the research vessel Akademik Ioffe, have precisely located two long‑known Soviet-era radioactive waste sites off Novaya Zemlya and identified a previously uncharted dump near Techeniye Bay. Archival data indicate the area contains 146 containers of solid radioactive waste from nuclear submarines and icebreakers plus a barge with reactor compartments from submarine K‑22. Measurements around these wrecks and the sunken K‑27 submarine found no cesium‑137 contamination in the water column, consistent with earlier Bellona assessments. (Bellona, 02.12.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is “the main guarantee of prosperity in the modern world,” pledging that Moscow will block any new UN Security Council sanctions on Pyongyang even while admitting Russia will struggle to roll back existing measures. (NK News, 02.12.26)
• South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers that around 10,000 North Korean combat troops and 1,000 engineer troops are currently deployed in Russia’s front‑line Kursk region, with an estimated 6,000 killed or wounded, but Pyongyang still sees value in the deployment for gaining modern combat tactics, battlefield data and Russian technical help to upgrade its weapons systems and drones. The NIS also said Kim Jong Un’s daughter Ju‑ae has moved from “training” to the stage of formal successor designation. (Yonhap/RFE, 02.12.26)
• Ukrainian intelligence says North Korean troops fighting for Russia have shifted from “suicidal” infantry waves in 2024 to more advanced roles, including operating surveillance drones, demining and conducting artillery and MLRS strikes from southern Russia into Ukraine. Around 3,000 of roughly 15,000 deployed soldiers have returned home to serve as instructors, while North Korean deminers reportedly cleared over 1.5 million explosives in Kursk amid rising DPRK weapons shipments to support Russia’s winter offensive. (Wall Street Journal, 02.06.26)
• Russian citizens made 9,985 trips to North Korea in 2025, the highest annual figure since FSB border data began in 2010; 5,075 were listed as tourism, 3,080 for vehicle maintenance, 1,156 for business and 666 for personal reasons, up from just 73 trips in 2022 and 6,469 in 2024, amid deepening wartime ties and North Korean weapons and troop support for Russia. (Meduza, 02.10.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. and European officials told allies that Iran has supplied short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, giving Moscow another powerful weapon for its intensified strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure despite Western warnings not to provide such arms. (Wall Street Journal, 09.06.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• From early October through mid‑January Ukraine’s intelligence service logged 256 drone and missile strikes on energy facilities by Russia: 11 on hydroelectric plants, 94 on thermal plants, and 151 on substations. Ukraine’s energy minister Denys Shmyhal told parliament on Jan. 16 that “there is not a single power plant in Ukraine that the enemy has not attacked” and that “thousands of megawatts of generation have been knocked out. DTEK, the country’s largest private energy company, has “lost more than two‑thirds of its generation capacity,” and some Kyiv districts have endured weeks‑long outages, with one Jan. 24 strike cutting heating to “nearly half of the city’s 12,000 apartment buildings.” Since the full‑scale invasion began, at least 160 energy workers have been killed and more than 300 wounded on the job. Of Ukraine’s four nuclear plants, three remain in Ukrainian hands and active; New Yorker cites energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko’s estimate that they now produce “more than 60%” of the country’s electricity (New Yorker, 02.05.26)

Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026

• Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories has turned the Mokrany–Domanove Belarus–Ukraine crossing into a de facto humanitarian corridor, with 30–40 people a day—mainly women, children and elderly but also draft‑age men—fleeing a system where courts, pensions, tax and property registers are folded into Russia’s digital bureaucracy and a July 1 deadline threatens unregistered Ukrainian homeowners with expropriation. (The Economist, 02.08.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• Conflict Intelligence Team data cited by ISW show 2025 was the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since the full‑scale invasion: at least 2,919 killed and 17,775 injured (up 12% and 25% vs. 2024), with drones alone causing 1,376 deaths and 10,089 injuries—nearly three times 2024’s drone toll—and Russian strikes accounting for 97% of all 2025 civilian casualties. (ISW, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• Germany’s Interior Ministry says over 471,000 people who arrived from Ukraine since 2022 have left Germany, while 1.157 million Ukrainians held temporary protection there as of Feb. 7, 2026. Of those registered, about 484,000 are men and 672,000 women, including some 305,000 minors and 85,266 men aged 18–26. Berlin does not expect a “significant decrease” in arrivals soon given ongoing Russian attacks. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.26)
• Ukraine has recovered five more illegally deported children aged 4–15, according to Bring Kids Back UA and Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Three of them—aged 4, 6 and 7—were residents of the Kherson Regional Children’s Home and were taken by Russian forces during the 2022 occupation despite staff attempts to hide them. They were later forcibly transferred to occupied Crimea and placed in the Simferopol children’s home “Yolochka.” (Ukrainska Pravda via RBC.ua, 02.13.26)
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the IOC’s decision to disqualify Ukrainian skeleton racer Vladyslav Heraskevych from the Milan‑Cortina Games for wearing a “memory helmet” depicting athletes killed in Russia’s war, saying sport “shouldn’t mean amnesia” and must not “play into the hands of aggressors.” (Financial Times, 02.13.26)
• In Kyiv, an exceptionally harsh winter is compounding the impact of Russia’s repeated strikes on Ukraine’s power grid: about 45% of the city’s schools are closed due to lack of central heating, and roughly 2,600 buildings are currently without electricity or heat, forcing residents to endure freezing conditions with only sporadic power and water. (The Guardian, 02.13.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In early 2022 when the White House was warning Zelenskyy of an imminent invasion, and President Biden, during a call with Western leaders, predicted that it would begin on Feb. 16. Zelenskyy refused to believe it. Instead of mobilizing his military or calling on people to evacuate, he urged all Ukrainians to hang flags in their windows and sing the national anthem at 10 that morning. “We are told that Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack,” Zelenskyy declared in a defiant speech. “We will make it the day of unity.” (Atlantic, 02.12.26)
• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Jan. 13–Feb. 10, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 182 square miles (area roughly equivalent to 2 Nantucket Islands) of Ukraine’s territory during that period, an increase over the 79 square miles Russia gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 16, 2025–Jan. 13, 2026), according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 02.11.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• On Friday, Feb. 6, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zatyshok and Nove Shakhove. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• ISW assesses Russia has likely seized Hulyaipole (pre‑war population ~13,000) after three months of fighting, but that further rapid advances are unlikely because gains there required committing elements of at least three combined arms armies and deprioritizing other sectors, highlighting Russia’s persistent inability to generate large reserves. (ISW, 02.06.26)
• Despite months of strikes on Ukrainian supply lines, Russian forces remain roughly 23 km from Slovyansk after taking Siversk in December 2025 and about 35 km from Orikhiv from the Hulyaipole axis, with only small‑group infiltration gains around Lyman, Kostyantynivka, Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk. (ISW, 02.06.26)

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• On Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampil, Bondarne and Stepanivka. (RM, 02.13.26)    
• Russia unleashed one of its largest air assaults yet on Ukraine’s power system overnight Feb. 6–7, firing over 400 drones and about 40 missiles, including Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, at high-voltage lines, plants, and substations nationwide. Ukrainian air defenses shot down most of the incoming weapons, but at least 13 missiles and 21 drones hit 19 sites, knocking out key 750 kV and 330 kV substations and forcing emergency power cuts and extended outages across much of the country. Around 600,000 customers in Lviv region alone lost electricity, with hundreds of thousands more affected amid subzero temperatures. All nuclear power plants under Kyiv’s control were forced to reduce output, creating a significant power deficit. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine requested emergency electricity supplies from Poland after strikes on the Burshtynska and Dobrotvirska plants. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy condemned Russia’s “massive attack” on critical energy infrastructure. (MT/AFP, 02.07.26, Bloomberg, 02.07.26, ISW, 02.07.26,⁵ New York Times, 02.07.26, Washington Post, 02.07.26)

Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026

• On Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Tykhe, Pryvillia, in Vasyukivka, Nykyforivka and Pokrovsk. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• Russia launched fresh attacks on Ukraine overnight, including a large-scale drone strike on energy facilities in the central Poltava region, hitting sites operated by state-owned Naftogaz Group, the company said. The assault damaged assets and equipment but caused no reported injuries. In eastern Ukraine, a Russian airstrike on a residential neighborhood in Kramatorsk killed one person and wounded two others, igniting a fire in a nine-story apartment building. Another strike targeted additional energy infrastructure in Poltava region, underscoring Moscow’s continued focus on Ukraine’s critical facilities (Bloomberg, 02.08.26, Washington Post, 02.08.26) 
• Ukraine’s new defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov has set a goal of killing 50,000 Russian soldiers a month (up from 35,000 in December), but frontline officers and analysts say Kyiv must shift from a 12‑mile “kill zone” toward Russian‑style depth warfare using 20–120 mile strike systems against drone operators and command posts, as estimates put cumulative losses near 1.2 million Russians and 500,000–600,000 Ukrainians. (Wall Street Journal, 02.08.26)
• Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed that January 2026 missile strikes using domestically produced long-range weapons, including FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missiles, damaged multiple facilities at Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast, including an IRBM technical facility, assembly building and logistics warehouse used for Oreshnik missile launches. (ISW, 02.08.26)
• An F-16 fighter jet operated by the Ukrainian air force shot down a Russian Geran long-range strike drone with its M61 Vulcan 20mm auto cannon. (Status-6 X Account, 02.08.26)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) says 65-year-old Russian citizen Lyubomir Korba was detained in Dubai and handed over to Russia on suspicion of shooting GRU first deputy chief Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, 64, in a Moscow apartment building. Authorities say Korba and 66-year-old Russian citizen Viktor Vasin have been arrested, and a third suspect, 54-year-old neighbor Zinaida Serebritskaya, has been named; officials claim she fled to Ukraine. Ukraine has denied any involvement in the attack. Also Vasin’s son has been arrested (Washington Post, 02.08.26, IStories, 02.09.26, Meduza, 02.09.26)
  • Russia’s Investigative Committee reclassified charges against four suspects in the shooting of Alexeyev as terrorism under Article 205 (parts 2a, 2v), carrying 12–20 years in prison; Russian citizens Lyubomir Korba, Viktor Vasin and his son Pavel Vasin are in custody, while alleged accomplice Zinaida Serebritskaya is charged in absentia after reportedly fleeing to Ukraine. (Meduza, 02.13.26)

Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

• On Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Zakitne and near Huliaipole. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• Around 100,000 customers in the city of Belgorod were without running water early Feb 9 after power surges caused by Ukrainian airstrikes on the local power grid forced two pumping stations to go into emergency shutdown. (MT/AFP, 02.09.26)
• Russia is preparing a Summer 2026 offensive likely starting as early as late April and focused on the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and/or Orikhiv–Zaporizhzhia City axes, but that the military command faces a dilemma over when to commit its limited strategic reserves, which it has tried to build up since fall 2025 while struggling to replace losses and meet preparatory objectives on time. (ISW, 02.09.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• On Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Bondarne and advanced in Nykyforivka. Russian infiltration in Prymorske and Lukianivske was eliminated. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• Russian troops are close to completing the capture of three key Ukrainian urban areas—Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk—after a year of grinding assaults, gaining under 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory since 2024 while suffering an estimated 1.2 million battlefield casualties to Ukraine’s roughly half that; if these towns fall, Russia would gain crucial logistics hubs and urban cover for drones, strengthen its hand in U.S.‑mediated peace talks, and obtain a springboard toward Kostyantynivka and Ukraine’s last major defensive belt in Donetsk. (New York Times, 02.10.26)
• Drones are currently responsible for 70 to 80% of killed and wounded on both sides, according to a report by Latvia’s foreign intelligence service last month. (Financial Times, 02.10.26).
• Russia has no intention of ending its war in Ukraine, according to assessments by eastern NATO member states Poland and Estonia that offer a warning to Washington that Vladimir Putin is likely buying time in peace talks. The Kremlin is exploiting negotiations as a “tool for manipulation” as it aims to restore relations with the U.S., Estonian foreign intelligence said on Tuesday. (Bloomberg, 02.10.26)
• Russian armed forces are delivering the progress Putin demands at a slower pace and higher cost than at any point in the war. Those advances have come at a rate of just 15 to 70 meters a day in Russia’s most prominent offensives since it gained the upper hand on the battlefield in 2024—slower than in almost any war in the past 100 years, according to a January report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. (Financial Times, 02.10.26)
• Not enough Russians are being induced to fight in Ukraine by the enormous payouts on offer, forcing Moscow’s army to recruit a higher share of accused criminals, pressure conscripts into signing contracts once their mandatory service ends and redeploy wounded soldiers. Desertion rates are at their highest point in the nearly four-year war, according to Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight. Though Russia is meeting its enlistment targets of about 35,000 per month, as many as 90% of new recruits in 2025 were deployed to replace battlefield casualties, according to Oleksandr Syrsky, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces. (Financial Times, 02.10.26)
• Russian regions spent at least Rbs500bn on enlistment bonuses last year, according to Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. All signing-on bonuses alone, which are drawn variously from federal, regional, municipal, and some corporate budgets, account for about 0.5% of Russian GDP, Kluge said. (Financial Times, 02.10.26)
• Kenya repatriated 27 of its citizens recruited to fight for Russia against Ukraine, the government said, as the families of 17 South African men fighting in that conflict demanded that President Cyril Ramaphosa intervene to bring them home. (Bloomberg, 02.10.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• On Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk and near Robotyne. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• A Russian Geran‑2 (Shahed‑type) drone strike on Bohodukhiv in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region killed a 34‑year‑old father and his three children (twin boys aged 2 and a 1‑year‑old girl) and critically injured their 35‑weeks‑pregnant mother, as Russia’s intensified air campaign helped make 2025 the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured. (Washington Post, 02.11.26)
• Russia produced over 7mn artillery shells, mortar rounds and rockets in 2025, up from 4.5mn in 2024 and about 17 times pre‑war output, while also using North Korean imports for as much as half the ammunition it has fired in Ukraine over the past six months, Estonia’s intelligence service said, warning Moscow is “in effect, preparing for its next war.” (Financial Times, 02.11.26)
• One million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to a February 2026 estimate by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. (RM, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• On Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Chasiv Yar. (RM, 02.13.26)       
• Russia launched 219 long-range drones, 24 ballistic missiles and a guided aircraft missile overnight on Feb. 12 in a nationwide strike on major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odesa. Ukrainian air defense said most of the 24 missiles and 219 drones were intercepted, but two people were killed in eastern Ukraine, civilians were injured, residential buildings were damaged, and about 2,600 buildings in Kyiv lost heating. In Odesa, some 300,000 residents were left without running water, and a key power facility in the region was seriously damaged, with operator DTEK warning repairs will take significant time. Ukraine said a domestically produced drone hit Russia’s Ukhta refinery 1,750 kilometers away, and Flamingo missiles struck arms and oil sites in Volgograd and Tambov. (Washington Post, 02.12.26, RFE/RL, 02.12.26, Bloomberg, 02.12.26)
• Russian forces’ “Vostok” contingent, which has already taken Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka and Huliaipole, is pushing west from new bridgeheads over the Haichur River toward Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia while a second major offensive gathers pace around Pokrovsk–Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka, and Siversk–Lyman; Meduza notes that without fresh reserves, Ukraine may only be able to slow, not stop, Russian advances, risking Russian troops reaching the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk urban area as early as this summer. (Meduza, 02.12.26)
• Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces are conducting localized counterattacks around the Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhzhia border near Hulyaipole (Dobropillia, Varvarivka), likely reconnecting bypassed positions and exploiting degraded Russian comms. (ISW, 02.12.26)
• Ukrainian long-range drones struck Lukoil’s Ukhta refinery in Russia’s Komi region, around 1,550 km from Moscow, igniting fires at the primary unit and a visbreaker, days after a separate drone attack hit Lukoil’s major Volgograd refinery⁶ (design capacity ~300,000 bpd). (Bloomberg, 02.12.26)
• “Ukraine is not losing,” Zelenskyy insisted emphatically when I asked him to assess his position on the battlefield. The invaders have spent nearly two years trying to seize the mining town of Pokrovsk, a railroad junction with a prewar population of only about 60,000 people, and they have still failed to secure all of it. By Ukrainian estimates, every square kilometer that Russia occupies costs its military more than 100 soldiers, either dead or gravely wounded, while its average monthly casualties add up to as many as 35,000 troops. (Atlantic, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• Russia launched a massive overnight strike on Feb. 13, targeting energy infrastructure in six Ukrainian regions—Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Donetsk—leaving consumers without power and forcing emergency repairs where security allows. Ukrenergo said cumulative damage has imposed industrial load limits nationwide and scheduled hourly outages for households, with emergency blackouts in some areas, though electricity consumption fell 3.9% amid warmer weather. Ukraine’s Air Force reported Russia fired one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 154 attack UAVs (about 100 Shaheds and other types), of which air defenses shot down or suppressed 111; one missile and 22 drones struck 18 locations, with debris hitting two more. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.26)
  • The Feb. 13 Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odesa, injured civilians and left 2,600 additional buildings in Kyiv without heat (on top of 1,100 already affected), nearly 300,000 Odesa residents without running water, and some 10,000 people in Dnipro without central heating. (Washington Post/AP, 02.13.26)
• Ukrainian military intelligence said the bodies of two Nigerians, Hamzat Kazeen Kolawole and Mbah Stephen Udoka, who signed contracts with Russia’s 423rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment in late 2025 without prior training, were found in Luhansk after they were killed by a Ukrainian drone strike during a failed assault on Ukrainian positions. (Washington Post/AP, 02.13.26)
• A Razumkov Center poll for the Kyiv Security Forum found 83.9% of Ukrainians now believe in victory over Russia (51.8% “yes” and 32.1% “rather yes”), up sharply from 73.9% in September 2025. Only 8.7% do not believe in victory. Views on timelines are mixed: 35.9% expect the war to end in 2–3 years, 17.7% by end‑2026, and 16.9% within five years, while 10% think it will last longer or not end in the foreseeable future. About half rate current peace talks with the U.S., EU and Russia as unsuccessful. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26)
• Russian forces have been ordered to kill civilians in the area of the village of Zelenyi Hai in the Donetsk region, according to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR). Ukrainian intelligence released an intercepted conversation showing Russian soldiers preparing to clear a building with civilians inside. A Russian commander gives his subordinates explicit instructions to leave no one alive. "Where there are civilians—kill them all. This big building," says a soldier in the recording. HUR specialists have identified the unit that received this criminal order: a detachment of former prisoners called Shtorm, part of the Russian 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. (RBC.ua, 02.13.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• Japanese media report, citing NATO officials, that Japan may join NATO’s PURL mechanism to fund non‑lethal equipment for Ukraine such as radar and body armor; Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara publicly denied Japan would join PURL but reaffirmed economic and humanitarian support, reflecting the legal limits imposed by Article 9 of Japan’s pacifist constitution. (ISW)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said the PURL mechanism, which finances NATO purchases of U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine, has raised $4.5 billion from 21 NATO allies plus Australia and New Zealand since mid‑2025, with Norway, the Netherlands and Germany among the largest contributors and further pledges expected at the Feb. 12 NATO ministerial. (ISW, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• The UK is set to deliver an additional 1,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles, manufactured in Belfast, that will be critical to defending Ukrainian infrastructure and cities from Russia’s escalating drone and missile attacks. The UK is ironclad in our commitment to Ukraine. (UK MOD X Account, 02.12.26)
• The UK announced a new ~£540m ($735m) package including £150m into the PURL fund for U.S. weapons and £390m for 1,000 UK‑made Lightweight Multirole Missiles to counter drones and missiles, while the Netherlands will send F‑16 simulators to speed Ukrainian pilot training—steps ISW says are vital to building a layered air‑defense umbrella. (ISW, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Ukraine will “in the coming days” receive 35 Patriot PAC‑3 interceptor missiles: 30 pledged collectively by other members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and 5 additional missiles from Germany. He reiterated that Ukraine needs at least $50 billion in 2026 for self‑defense and welcomed allies’ promise of $35 billion in military aid this year, alongside new PURL contributions for U.S.-made air defense systems. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.26)
• Germany has launched production lines to manufacture Ukrainian-designed combat drones for Kyiv’s army at the new joint venture Quantum Frontline Industries near Munich, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said. The systems, equipped with AI and already tested on the front, will deliver an initial 10,000 drones to Ukraine this year, making it the first serial production of Ukrainian UAVs in Europe. Zelenskyy and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also signed deals on joint ventures and integrating Ukrainian instructors into German army training centers. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26)
• NATO officials say donors have so far pledged only €1.4bn of the €5.1bn needed this year for the Czech‑led initiative to buy artillery shells for Ukraine, even though the alliance plans to spend €5bn on ammunition in 2026; the scheme raised €4.8bn last year. (Reuters via Strana.ua, 02.13.26, Strana.ua)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026

• Argus Media told Russia’s finance ministry that its price benchmarks are used to calculate up to 25% of Russia’s budget revenues from energy and warned a new law banning most foreign commodity market research would end its “full‑scope” operations. Argus Rus revenues hit a record £17.1mn in the year to June 2024 (up 75% vs 2021), with profits of £8.8mn and 82% of regional revenue coming from Russia. (Financial Times, 02.08.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• Internal procurement documents analyzed by Frontelligence Insight indicate Russia has acquired at least 22 foreign-made precision machine tools (from Taiwan, the UK, Germany and Italy) to modernize Uralmash Plant No. 9, historically constrained to about 50 artillery barrels per year as of October 2024, potentially allowing a significant increase in tank and howitzer barrel production despite sanctions. (ISW, 02.10.26)
• The European Commission has proposed banning all cryptocurrency transactions with Russia and any Russia‑established crypto platforms, alongside a ban on transactions using the digital ruble and sanctions on 20 more banks, to curb sanctions evasion. Brussels also wants its first anti‑circumvention export ban on select dual‑use goods to Kyrgyzstan, where imports of high‑priority EU items are up 800% since the war and exports to Russia up 1,200%. (Financial Times, 02.10.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• Public concern in Russia about Western political and economic sanctions rose to 35% in January 2026 (up 9 points since February 2025), but 63% say sanctions do not worry them, and 87% report no serious personal or family problems from them. In a nationwide Levada Center survey conducted Jan. 15–23, 2026, 73% said Russia should continue its current policy despite sanctions (down 5 points since May 2024), while 18% now favor seeking compromises to lift them (up 4 points). (Levada, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• Russia has effectively erased WhatsApp from its internet by removing the Meta-owned app—used by an estimated 100 million people—from Roskomnadzor’s online directory, in what officials and analysts see as a move to push users onto the unencrypted, state‑controlled Max messenger and deepen surveillance, alongside broader throttling of Telegram and degradation of Facebook, Instagram and possibly YouTube. (Financial Times, 02.12.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• When Ukrainian forces evicted the Russians from the southern city of Kherson, Zelenskyy received an urgent plea from one of his closest Western allies: Begin peace talks now from a position of strength, and use the leverage to secure a favorable deal. “Seize the moment,” General Mark Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a speech in November 2022. No one can say whether such talks could have ended the war. But looking back, that was the high-water mark for Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield. The war then devolved afterward into a series of demoralizing setbacks for Ukraine, starting with a failed counteroffensive in 2023, when most of the front line settled into a stalemate. (Atlantic, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow’s insistence on the April 2022 Istanbul draft as the basis for any settlement, a document that would treat Russia as a “guarantor state,” give Russia and China veto power over responses to future aggression, and impose strict neutrality and force limits on Ukraine. (ISW, 02.06.26)

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the United States is pressing Kyiv and Moscow to reach a peace deal by June, before President Donald Trump turns his focus to U.S. midterm elections. He described recent Abu Dhabi talks mediated by U.S. envoys as more “concrete,” citing discussions on ceasefire monitoring mechanisms and a U.S. proposal to create an economic zone in the Donbas region. Zelenskyy stressed that any ceasefire must lock in current positions: “We stand where we stand.” (Financial Times, 02.07.26) (Axios, 02.07.26) 

Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the United States of sabotaging efforts to improve relations and undermining negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, saying the Trump administration has not rolled back “punitive” laws adopted under Joe Biden and is instead imposing new sanctions and “waging war against tankers on the high seas” in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In parallel, Lavrov reiterated Russia’s maximalist conditions for any Ukraine settlement, demanding effective control over Kyiv’s postwar government, limits on the size and armament of its military, a ban on Western weapons systems “that threaten Russia” on Ukrainian territory, the “elimination” of Ukraine’s alleged “Nazi roots,” and recognition of Russian claims over a broader “Novorossiya” region. (MT/AFP, 02.09.26, ISW, 02.09.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc is drafting a “sustainable peace plan” listing conditions Russia must meet for any long‑term Ukraine settlement, including returning abducted Ukrainian children and imposing limits on the size of Russia’s postwar armed forces, while the EU also moves toward a ban on servicing ships carrying Russian oil and prepares to circulate the draft to members before Feb. 23. (Washington Post, 02.10.26)
• The Kremlin confirmed Tuesday that France and Russia have resumed “technical-level” dialogue as French President Emmanuel Macron continued to call on European leaders not to allow themselves be sidelined by the United States in Ukraine peace talks. “Yes, there have indeed been contacts, and we can confirm that,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 02.10.26)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again blamed the U.S. for lack of progress in Ukraine talks and explicitly cited the 2022 Istanbul draft, which would treat Russia as a “guarantor state,” give Russia and China veto power over future security responses in Ukraine, and force Ukrainian neutrality and strict force limits, as the basis for any settlement. (ISW, 02.10.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed U.S. security guarantees, Ukrainian and western officials and others familiar with the matter claimed, according to FT. The reported move comes amid intense pressure on Kyiv by the White House to wrap up peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the spring. The plan aligns with a U.S. push to have all documents signed to bring Europe’s largest conflict since the second world war to an end by June. “They say that they want to do everything by June… so that the war ends,” Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy said, citing the White House’s desire to shift its focus to the U.S. midterm elections in November. “And they want a clear schedule. According to Ukrainian and European officials involved in the planning as well as others briefed on the matter, Zelenskyy intends to announce the plan for presidential elections and a referendum on Feb. 24. (Financial Times, 02.11.26)
  • Zelenskyy is weighing plans for wartime presidential elections and a referendum on a prospective peace deal with Russia by mid‑May under U.S. pressure, but has ruled out announcing the timetable on Feb. 24 and insists no vote can occur without a ceasefire and firm security guarantees. His office publicly denied a fixed schedule, saying “as long as there is no security, there will be no announcements,” while territorial concessions over Donbas remain the core obstacle. (Telegraph, 02.11.26)
• The U.S. has invited Ukraine and Russia to another trilateral round of talks in the U.S. on Feb. 17–18; Zelenskyy says Kyiv has accepted but Moscow is “hesitating” and may insist on Abu Dhabi, while key issues include a U.S.-backed “free economic zone” in Donbas and a renewed moratorium on energy‑infrastructure strikes, which Russia has not yet accepted. (ISW, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• Two of Zelenskyy’s advisers told Atlantic’s Simon Shuster that Ukraine may be ready to accept the hardest concession of all: giving up control of land in the eastern Donetsk region. To legitimize such a compromise, they have considered holding a referendum on the peace plan this spring, allowing Ukrainians to vote on a deal that includes the loss of territory. They could couple it with a presidential election, in the hopes of giving Zelenskyy a fresh mandate for the first time since 2019. Zelenskyy said he would be fine with that approach because it would help increase turnout and make the results more difficult for the Russians to question. But again, he told me, it had to be the right deal. “I don’t think we should put a bad deal up for a referendum,” he said. (Atlantic, 02.12.26)
  • Zelenskyy entertained the idea of turning parts of the Donetsk region into a “free economic zone” that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces would control. “We weren’t thrilled about that,” Zelenskyy said. But he went along with the American proposals, doing his best to demonstrate that Russia, not Ukraine, remains the obstacle to peace. “Sometimes I get the impression that it’s like: What else can we offer the Ukrainians just to see if they’ll refuse?” he said with a smile. “We’re not afraid of anything. Are we ready for elections? We’re ready. Are we ready for a referendum? We’re ready.” (Atlantic, 02.12.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making a pitch to Donald Trump in terms the American president can understand: If Trump wants to cement his legacy as a peacemaker and improve his chances of winning the midterm elections, he should seize this moment to end the war in Ukraine, already the deadliest Europe has seen in generations. “I think there is no greater victory for Trump than to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine,” Zelenskyy told me yesterday, in his office in Kyiv.” (Atlantic, 02.12.26)
• Some members of Zelenskyy’s inner circle are growing anxious that his window to cut a deal is closing, and that Ukraine will suffer through years of continued fighting if an end to the war isn’t negotiated this spring. But Zelenskyy told me that he would rather take no deal at all than force his people to accept a bad one. Even after four years of intense warfare, he says he is prepared to fight on if that’s what it takes to secure a dignified and lasting peace. (Atlantic, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine have confirmed they will join new U.S.-led peace talks in Geneva on Feb. 17–18, following rounds in Abu Dhabi. Security Council secretary Rustem Umerov will lead Kyiv’s delegation, joined by military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, General Andriy Hnatov, lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia, UN ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsia, and intelligence officer Vadym Skibitskyi, reflecting military, political, and diplomatic priorities. The Kremlin says presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky will head Russia’s team, a downgrade from GRU chief Igor Kostyukov, as Moscow continues to demand parts of Donetsk and Washington tests a “free economic zone” plus security guarantees for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 02.13.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26, RBC.ua, 02.13.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending the MSC conference, said the “most significant” goal is a “dignified peace” with firm security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe.
  • Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and other European leaders stressed that Russia, as the aggressor, could end the war “any day” and called for sustained pressure and support to secure a just ceasefire.  
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz used the opening of the Munich Security Conference to warn that Russia’s war on Ukraine is the clearest sign that the old, rules‑based order “no longer exists,” urging a renewed transatlantic partnership to confront Moscow and support Kyiv. Merz told the Munich Security Conference that Europe should not enter negotiations with Moscow until Russia shows genuine willingness to seek a peaceful settlement and is “economically, politically and militarily exhausted.” Merz said current U.S.-led talks show Russia “still doesn’t want to talk seriously,” and argued the war will end only when Russia no longer sees any sense in continuing it—a goal that must be pursued jointly by the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.13.26, RFE/RL, 02.13.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26)
• Ukrainian officials say the Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Kyiv to make concessions to Russia—including over Donbas territory and holding elections by May 15—as Washington pushes to end the war by June ahead of U.S. midterms. Zelenskyy insists any deal must first include robust Western security guarantees and rejects Putin’s demand to “give me all of Donbas” as the price for peace, noting neither side likes a U.S. idea to turn remaining Ukrainian‑held Donbas into a “free economic zone.” Analysts in Kyiv argue Russia is still preparing spring offensives and will only consider a freeze when its economic and military advantages erode. (New York Times, 02.13.26)
• A U.S. State Department official said that western Europe’s view of Russia as an “existential threat” makes it “very difficult to come to a diplomatic conclusion” in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 02.13.26) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte estimates Russia’s weapons factories are producing ammunition at roughly four times the rate NATO can manage. (Financial Times, 02.07.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• Spain’s defense ministry said EF‑18M Hornet jets scrambled under NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission intercepted a Russian Su‑30SM2 fighter over the Baltic Sea near NATO airspace on Jan. 28, another incident ISW sees as part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” effort to unsettle Europe and test alliance cohesion ahead of any potential future confrontation. (ISW, 02.10.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year, this service’s director Kaupo Rosin wrote in the Foreword to the service’s annual “International Security and Estonia 2026” report. (RM, 02.11.26)
• NATO is launching “Arctic Sentry,” a new mission to boost its Arctic presence with about 25,000 troops in exercises starting mid‑March, expanded patrols in the Norwegian Sea and GIUK Gap, and a doubling of British troops in Norway’s Arctic to 2,000, responding to at least 33 documented Russian Arctic maneuvers since January 2025 and growing concern over nuclear‑armed submarines based on the Kola Peninsula. (New York Times, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• NATO has launched “Arctic Sentry” and stepped up anti‑submarine drills such as Norway’s Arctic Dolphin exercise, where 10 allies’ ships, aircraft and two submarines practiced hunting Russian boats along key routes from the Kola Peninsula toward the Atlantic and the GIUK Gap. Commanders say the goal is to rebuild Cold War–era sub‑hunting skills and coordinate forces so they can “operate as a single navy” against growing Russian undersea activity. (Wall Street Journal, 02.12.26)
• European allies at NATO downplayed the absence of U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from a Brussels ministerial, even as Washington’s role visibly shrinks and U.S. arms for Ukraine have dried up under Trump. Under Secretary Elbridge Colby urged a “NATO 3.0” in which Europe fields most conventional forces, while the alliance announced “Arctic Sentry” to coordinate existing northern drills and reassure Washington amid Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. (Washington Post, 02.12.26)
• When U.S. Vice President JD Vance came to the Munich Security Conference last year, he stunned his hosts by telling them that suppression of free speech by Washington's European allies was a bigger security risk than Russian military aggression. This year, with the U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Europeans may hope for an easier ride -- while Russia and China watch closely for new signs of fractures in the Western alliance. . (RFE/RL, 02.12.26)
• A bipartisan group of eight former U.S. ambassadors to NATO and eight former supreme allied commanders in Europe issued a joint letter calling NATO “the cornerstone of United States national security” and a “force‑multiplier” for U.S. power, warning that abandoning or weakening the alliance would raise costs and erode American influence. The statement, timed to the Munich Security Conference, counters Trump-era doubts as Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby urges Europeans to assume primary responsibility for conventional defense. (New York Times, 02.12.26)  

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading the American delegation to the Munich Security Conference, calling it a “defining moment” in a rapidly changing world and urging a reexamination of transatlantic roles. Rubio, who will speak on Feb. 14, said ending Russia’s war on Ukraine is a priority and that continued peace efforts are driven by “unimaginable suffering” from Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter. He expects to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha in Munich, and said Washington will also hold talks with Hungary and Slovakia on phasing out Russian energy imports. (RFE/RL, 02.13.26, CNN, 02.12.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.26)
  • European officials said trust in U.S. engagement on Ukraine was further shaken after Secretary of State Marco Rubio abruptly skipped a planned “Berlin Format” meeting on Ukraine with leaders from Germany, Poland, Finland and the European Commission in Munich, citing scheduling conflicts. One European official called the cancellation “insane,” saying the session “lacked substance” without U.S. participation, as the Trump administration pushes Kyiv toward a settlement with Russia while distancing itself from European allies. (Financial Times, 02.13.26)
• Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has strategically lost and that Ukraine will win the war, Bild reports. "I won’t give you advice, but I believe you will win this war, and I say this because Putin has strategically lost," Stubb said in response to a question from a Ukrainian journalist. He explained that Putin wanted to make Ukraine Russian, but "it became European." He tried to prevent NATO expansion, yet Finland and Sweden have now joined. Stubb also noted that Putin aimed to keep Russia’s defense spending low, but now it is rising to five percent. "Russia is losing militarily: at the start of the war, Russia occupied 12 percent of Ukrainian territory. Over the last two years, that fell to eight percent, and by December it was one percent. Additionally, Ukraine has killed 34,000 Russian soldiers, whom they were unable to replace," the Finnish President said. (RBC.ua, 02.13.26)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted that the EU, despite economic opportunities, is not many times stronger than Russia. His words are quoted by Bild. "The GDP of the European Union is almost ten times higher. And yet today Europe is not ten times stronger than Russia," he said at the Munich Security Conference. The politician said that European countries do not use their full military, political and technological potential. To fix it, it is necessary to "switch consciousness," Merz is sure. The Chancellor also noted that he does not object to the dialogue with Russia on the Ukrainian settlement, but at the same time believes that Moscow is not yet ready for substantive negotiations. (Gazeta.ru, 02.13.26) Machine translated.
• Germany’s top military officer Gen. Carsten Breuer is racing to make the Bundeswehr “kriegstüchtig” (war‑ready) within a three‑year window that German intelligence says Russia needs to rebuild forces for a wider war. Defense spending is rising, a new law will subject all 18‑year‑old men to fitness exams to spur enlistment (with conscription possible if recruitment lags), and Germany is permanently stationing a 5,000‑strong armored brigade in Lithuania. Breuer is also rapidly expanding drone and counter‑drone capabilities as Europe braces for a less reliable U.S. security guarantee. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China is accelerating plans for a “Polar Silk Road,” developing a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet, Arctic research bases and use of Russia’s Northern Sea Route to create a “China‑Europe Arctic Express” that can cut voyage distances by 30–40% versus Suez, while investing in mining and ports in Russia’s north—moves that worry Western and Nordic officials, who see dual‑use military potential despite Beijing’s civilian framing. (Financial Times, 02.12.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

• Russian and U.S. negotiators discussed the expiration of the New START and agreed on the need to quickly launch new arms control talks, the Kremlin said on Feb. 6, 2026. “There is an understanding, and they talked about it in Abu Dhabi, that both parties will take responsible positions and both parties realize the need to start talks on the issue as soon as possible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to AP. According to a  Feb. 5, 2026 post in X by Barak Ravid of Axios, “A source with knowledge said the practical implications were that both U.S. and Russia would agree to observe the [New START] deal's terms for at least six months, during which time negotiations on a potential new deal would take place.” (Axios, AP, 02.05.26)

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• The U.S. accused China of secretly conducting a low‑yield nuclear explosive test at Lop Nur on June 22, 2020, and said Beijing is preparing further tests “with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” while its warhead stockpile has grown to just over 600 and is on track to reach 1,000 by 2030; Russia and the U.S. hold about 4,300 and 3,700 warheads respectively. (Washington Post, 02.06.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• Russia will continue to observe New START’s limits of 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers as long as the U.S. does so, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told lawmakers, despite the treaty’s Feb. 5 expiration; he said Moscow believes Washington is “in no hurry” to exceed the caps and confirmed both sides discussed future nuclear arms control during Abu Dhabi talks alongside Ukraine peace negotiations. (Washington Post, 02.11.26)
• A satellite image obtained by RFE/RL suggests Russia may be deploying its nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile system at a rapidly expanding military site on the grounds of the former Krychev-6 airfield near Krychau in eastern Belarus. (RFE/RL, 02.11.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby told NATO defense ministers that Washington will continue to provide an “extended nuclear deterrent” to European allies, but can no longer remain Europe’s primary provider of conventional defense while bearing “decisive” burdens elsewhere. He said the U.S. will still contribute conventional forces in a “more limited and focused” way, urging Europeans to assume greater responsibility and calling the shift a candid, realistic basis for alliance “friendship.” (Ukrainska Pravda/European Pravda, 02.13.26)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in Munich he has begun confidential talks with Emmanuel Macron on “European nuclear deterrence,” while France is preparing a speech offering to extend its nuclear umbrella. Experts note France and the UK together field about 400 warheads and already spend ~$12 billion annually to maintain them, but developing a broader European deterrent would be hugely costly, politically fraught, and unlikely to replace the U.S. “nuclear umbrella” in the near term. (Bloomberg, 02.13.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ex-CEO of Google Eric Schmidt writes: “Ukraine is building the necessary systems to stay at the cutting edge, through intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones, an expansive radar network and AI-enabled systems to collect, integrate and analyze data about battlefield events and incoming threats. I have been a longtime investor in defense technology companies, including in Ukraine. This infrastructure means Ukraine is ready for the next stage of warfare, with swarms of drones operated remotely and increasingly automated with AI targeting.” (Financial Times, 02.13.26)
• Russian milbloggers report that SpaceX’s Feb. 5 block on unregistered Starlink IStories reports that after SpaceX and Ukraine activated a “whitelist” system on Feb. 5 and imposed a 75–90 km/h speed cap, many Russian Starlink terminals across the front went dark, forcing units to fall back on more vulnerable wired, Wi‑Fi‑bridge and Russian satellite links, while Russian channels seek Ukrainians willing to register Russian terminals for up to 10,000 hryvnias each. (IStories, 02.11.26)
  • SpaceX’s shutdown of unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russian forces has sharply reduced drone attacks and disrupted frontline communications, Ukrainian soldiers say, blunting a new Russian tactic in which cheap Molniya drones with smuggled Starlinks turned the Pavlohrad–Pokrovsk supply road into a deadly gauntlet. After Kyiv worked with SpaceX to whitelist only Ukrainian‑registered terminals, one Ukrainian unit reported drone strikes in the south dropping by up to 15%, while Russia scrambles to find inferior satellite or relay‑drone alternatives. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.26)
• Russia-linked hackers nearly caused a blackout in Poland on December 29 by breaching operational technology at 30 energy facilities—including combined heat-and-power plants and wind/solar distribution systems—damaging equipment “beyond repair” and threatening power for almost 500,000 people in a country where renewables supply 29% of electricity. (The Economist, 02.09.26)
• Russia’s decision to throttle Telegram is provoking backlash from pro-war milbloggers and raising concerns about frontline communications. Roskomnadzor began nationwide slowing of the platform around Feb. 9–10, in what analysts call a major escalation in the Kremlin’s three-year drive to reassert information control. Milbloggers warn the move will “profoundly” degrade command-and-control, coming after SpaceX’s Feb. 1 shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals in Ukraine and earlier Discord blocks that had already pushed units back onto domestic fiber and radio networks. Telegram CEO Pavel Durov accused Moscow of trying to force users onto the Kremlin-backed Max app “built for surveillance and political censorship,” vowing to resist and comparing the tactic to Iran’s failed attempts to curb Telegram. Roskomnadzor, which had initially denied throttling, now cites Telegram’s alleged failures on fraud, extremism, and data protection as justification for continued restrictions. (Meduza, 02.11.26, ISW, 02.10.26, Bloomberg, 02.10.26, MT/AFP, 02.10.26)
• In Russia, the website of the I Want to Return project (Hochu Vernut), which publishes data on killed and wounded Russian soldiers, has been blocked. This is part of the Kremlin’s attempt to hide the true losses of its army in the war against Ukraine, according to the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War. I Want to Return project, run by the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, publishes lists with the names, ID numbers, and medical diagnoses of Russian military personnel. The database currently contains information on over 156,000 killed and 96,000 wounded soldiers. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War emphasized that the blocking of the resource by Roskomnadzor shows the Russian leadership’s fear of its own population. (RBC.ua, 02.13.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026

• The IEA’s “Electricity 2026” report projects global electricity demand will grow about 3.4% annually through 2026, with low‑emissions generation (renewables + nuclear) rising from 39% of global power in 2023 to 50% by 2026; annual grid investment must increase by over 50% to nearly $600bn by 2030, while sub‑Saharan Africa remains the only region where 2026 demand is still below pre‑pandemic levels. (bne IntelliNews, 02.08.26)

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

• Russia’s crude output declined for a second straight month in January as the world’s third largest oil producer faces difficulty in marketing its barrels because of U.S. sanctions. The nation pumped an average of 9.28 million barrels a day of crude oil last month, according to people with knowledge of the data, who asked not to be identified discussing classified information. The figure—which doesn’t include output of condensate—is 46,000 barrels a day below an already-reduced level in December, and almost 300,000 barrels a day lower than what Russia is allowed to produce under an agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. (Bloomberg, 02.09.26)
• Greece and Malta have emerged as the main obstacle to a European Union proposal to replace a Russian oil price cap with a ban on the services needed to ship the fuel. The two southern European countries raised concerns about the move at an EU ambassadors’ meeting on Monday where the bloc’s latest sanctions package was presented, according to people familiar with the matter. They expressed fears that the switch may affect Europe’s shipping industry and energy prices, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. (Bloomberg, 02.10.26)
• Analysts doubt Trump’s claim that India has “committed” to stop importing Russian oil, noting that flows have fallen—from about 2 million barrels per day in mid‑2025 to roughly 1.2 million bpd last month—but are more likely a tactical reduction and diversification than a full phase‑out, as India balances U.S. pressure against cheap Russian supply. (Axios, 02.09.26)
• U.S. forces seized the tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean after a monthlong pursuit from the Caribbean, their eighth ship capture since Trump began direct interdictions of sanctioned oil shipments near Venezuela. The vessel, which had loaded nearly 1 million barrels of crude at Venezuela’s Jose terminal on Dec. 6 and was broadcasting false location data, had been sanctioned by both the U.S. and U.K. for transporting Russian oil. (Wall Street Journal, 02.10.26)
• Russia’s crude shipments are holding steady in the face of mounting pressures on its critical oil trade, but the steeper discounts that are keeping the barrels flowing have hammered the Kremlin’s revenues. Volumes averaged 3.33 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 8, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That nudged up from the revised figure for the period to Feb. 1, but was down by about 540,000 barrels a day from the pre-Christmas peak. The stable flows haven’t prevented a collapse in Moscow’s oil revenues, which fell to the lowest in more than five years in January. (Bloomberg, 02.10.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the forthcoming EU ban on Russian LNG imports may force the company to halt all exports from the Yamal project, not only to Europe but “maybe beyond Europe,” because of legal ambiguities over whether EU firms can do any business with Russian LNG. Yamal supplied 15mn tons of LNG in 2025 (about 14% of EU LNG imports), and Total holds a 20% stake plus long‑term offtake contracts for ~4mn tons a year until 2032. (Financial Times, 02.11.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• Russia’s oil sector is under mounting pressure as Urals crude trades near $45 a barrel—about $27 below Brent and well under the ~$59 needed to balance the 2026 budget—while some 143 million barrels sit unsold at sea. India’s purchases have fallen to their lowest since 2022, Chinese state refiners are cautious, and U.S.-EU seizures of “shadow fleet” tankers are raising operational risks, threatening revenues that fund both the war and the wider economy. (Wall Street Journal, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• A bipartisan group in Congress introduced the Decreasing Russian Oil Profits (DROP) Act of 2026, aiming to choke off what they call the Kremlin’s “lifeblood” by mandating sanctions on anyone purchasing or facilitating Russian crude and oil products above the price cap. House sponsors say it will “drain this primary source of revenue,” “cut off a key funding for Putin’s war machine,” and “tighten the screws” on buyers of Russian oil. A companion bill in the Senate is backed by Republicans Dave McCormick (Pennsylvania) and Jon Husted (Ohio) and Democrats Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) and Chris Coons (Delaware), (RFE/RL, 02.12.26)
  • In a statement, ranking member of Senate Foreign Relations committee Jeanne Shaheen said she would use the trip to the Munich Security Conference "strengthen support for Ukraine and urge her Congressional colleagues to pass bipartisan sanctions legislation to hold Russia and its enablers accountable." (RFE/RL, 02.13.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy said U.S. and Russian officials are discussing a “Dmitriev package” of bilateral economic agreements worth about $12 trillion that may include provisions affecting Ukraine, while Washington is pushing to end the war by June as Russia intensifies pressure with mass strikes—29 missiles and 408 attack drones hitting energy facilities in eight regions and causing nationwide power outages. (Washington Post, 02.09.26)
  • Russia is considering reversing years of de‑dollarisation by re‑entering the U.S. dollar settlement system as part of a proposed “Dmitriev package” of Trump–Putin economic deals reportedly worth about $12 trillion, centered on joint projects in fossil fuels, natural gas and critical minerals.  An internal Kremlin memo seen by Bloomberg frames renewed dollar use and U.S. business cooperation as leverage in wider Ukraine peace talks and as a way for Moscow to reduce growing dependence on China, even though 60–67% of intra‑BRICS trade now already bypasses the dollar. (bne IntelliNews, 02.12.26, Bloomberg, 02.12.26) 

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

• Jeffrey Epstein’s newly released 2019 trust agreement shows he planned to leave $100 million, 48 diamonds, a diamond ring, and multiple properties (including his New York and Paris apartments, New Mexico ranch, and Little St. James island) to Belarusian dentist Karyna Shulyak, designated as his primary heir and intended wife, but payouts are on hold while at least $170 million has been paid to victims. (Meduza, 02.07.26)
•  Newly released Justice Department files show Jeffrey Epstein exchanged hundreds of emails and Skype messages between 2017 and 2019 with Russian-born tech investor Masha Drokova (now Bucher), who appears more than 1,000 times in the documents and introduced him to Kremlin‑linked investor Serguei Beloussov (Serg Bell); U.S. intelligence later barred Bell’s company Acronis from intelligence contracts and sanctioned the Russian Quantum Center he helped found. (Washington Post, 02.07.26)

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

• Newly released Justice Department files show Jeffrey Epstein spent years cultivating Russian officials and elites, raising fresh questions about potential Russian intelligence interest in his network. The records depict Epstein befriending then–deputy economy minister Sergei Belyakov, an FSB academy graduate, who helped him secure a three‑year multiple‑entry visa, explore investments and even seek help in a blackmail case involving Leon Black. Epstein also regularly met Russia’s UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin, scheduled talks with Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak and a deputy at the Russian central bank, and sought introductions via Norwegian and Slovak diplomats and former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak to meet Vladimir Putin or Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The files further detail Epstein’s financial and personal support for Belarusian heir and dentist Karyna Shuliak and Russian Olympian Maria Prusakova, who allegedly helped recruit other young women, deepening concerns over the nature and purpose of his Russian and Belarusian ties. (New York Times, 02.11.26)
• A Russian couple, Nikita and Oksana, who fled Russia with their three children seeking safety in the U.S., have spent four months confined at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in Texas amid Trump’s immigration crackdown. They describe inhumane conditions for hundreds of detained families, including worms in food, guards yelling and confiscating children’s toys, constant fluorescent lighting that never fully dims, and long waits for basic medical pills. (NBC News, 02.13.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026

Russia estimates the economy needs 11 million more laborers by the end of the decade. (Bloomberg, 02.07.26)

Sunday, Feb. 8, 2026

• Russia is moving to grant the Federal Security Service (FSB) with sweeping authority over the country's communications networks. On Jan. 27, 2026, the State Duma advanced government-backed amendments that would allow the FSB to shut down mobile internet, fixed-line internet, telephone services, and "any other means of communication" in response to vaguely defined "security threats…” (UK MOD X Account, 02.08.26)

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

• Russia’s economy will continue to slow in the first half of 2026 but still has “room for monetary policy easing,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said, as markets debate whether the central bank will hold its key rate at 16% on Friday or cut it by 50 basis points to 15.5%. (Reuters, 02.12.26)

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

• Russia’s central bank cut its key rate for the sixth straight meeting, to 15.5% from 16%, after last year’s hikes to 21% choked growth, but signaled policy will stay tight, with rates averaging 13.5–14.5% in 2026 to cool demand outside the war economy. Inflation has eased to 6.3%, still above the 4% target, while GDP growth slowed to 1% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024—a “man-made” slowdown, President Vladimir Putin said, to curb prices. Fiscal strains are mounting as Urals crude trades near $45 a barrel, far below the level needed to balance the 2026 budget. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.26, MTAFP, 02.13.26)
• Russia’s external government debt reached $61.97 billion as of Feb. 1, its highest level since 2006, while total public and private external debt rose 10.4% in 2025 to $319.8 billion, driven by new borrowing and a stronger ruble. Domestic consolidated debt hit 34.81 trillion rubles ($498 billion) amid heavy OFZ issuance to cover a 5.7 trillion‑ruble 2025 deficit, even as January’s 2026 shortfall already approached half the annual target. (MTAFP, 02.13.26)
• Russia’s Justice Ministry added Agentura.ru, a site that reports on Russian security services, to its “foreign agents” registry, along with journalists Maria Latsinskaya, Marina Okhrimovskaya and Galina Sidorova, Chuvash independence activist Mikhail (Mishshi) Oreshnikov, and the rights project “Open Space,” while removing businessman Andrei Pavlov and a dissolved philanthropy fund from the list. (Meduza, 02.13.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz‑2.1b with a Fregat upper stage from Plesetsk on Feb. 5, placing nine military satellites into orbit likely to be designated Cosmos‑2600 to Cosmos‑2608 (NORAD 67674–67682); Cosmos‑2600 is in a ~325 km sun‑synchronous orbit, while the other eight are in two groups around 500 km, with their missions still unclear. (RussianForces.org, 02.05.26)
• Russian army signing‑on bonuses can reach about $50,000—roughly a lifetime’s salary for many recruits—but soldiers reportedly lose 50–70% of their income to bribes and self‑funded equipment. (Financial Times, 02.07.26) 
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin has signed a decree making the General Staff the primary command body for Rosgvardia, giving Valery Gerasimov authority over its planning, training, mobilization readiness, intelligence and C2, while an insider claims the Security Council may also abolish the Emergency Situations Ministry and fold its ~50,000‑strong rescue corps and other specialists into Rosgvardia. (ISW, 02.11.26)
• Four Indian students were injured in a knife attack at a medical university dormitory in the republic of Bashkortostan this weekend, India’s Embassy in Moscow said Monday, coming after police reported that the 15-year-old assailant was arrested and hospitalized after sustaining self-inflicted wounds. (MT/AFP, 02.09.26)
• Authorities in the Chelyabinsk region said Thursday that law enforcement arrested a deputy governor following allegations that he accepted bribes during his time as mayor of the city of Kopeysk. (MT/AFP, 02.12.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Aeroflot announced that Rossiya’s regular flights between Russia and Cuba will be canceled from Feb. 24, with special repatriation flights from Varadero on Feb. 12, 14, 17, 19 and 21 and from Havana on Feb. 16; passengers on canceled Moscow–Cuba legs will receive full refunds. (Kommersant via Telegram, 02.13.26)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s 2025 state spending hit a record $131.4bn, with defense and security consuming 71% ($93.3bn), driving the overall budget deficit to $39.2bn as war costs outpaced revenues, KSE Institute reports. Social protection outlays fell 6.2% amid pension reforms and tighter eligibility rules. Budget revenues rose to $92bn (+18.3%), boosted by tax changes and external support, including $12.1bn in World Bank grants under the ERA mechanism and additional EU funds. (bne IntelliNews, 02.13.26)
• Only last fall, on the day investigators carried out a search of Yermak’s home as part of a corruption investigation, did the president agree to fire him. Yet Zelenskyy still refused to acknowledge in our interview that the corruption probe had pressured him to make that choice. “I had my reasons,” he growled, cutting off the line of questioning. (Atlantic,02.12.26)
• Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Ukraine 104th with a score of 36/100, up one point and one place from 2024, and notes that despite a “challenging year” of major procurement and defense‑sector scandals reaching close to the presidential office, anti‑corruption bodies are “making a difference” by exposing high‑level graft. The report links rare wartime protests against proposals to curb key anti‑graft agencies to a still‑vibrant civil society pushing for continued reforms. (Kyiv Post, 02.13.26)
•  Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and French prosecutors recovered about €4 million misappropriated via a scheme at state-owned Polygraph Plant “Ukraine,” marking the first case of funds of this scale being returned to Ukraine’s budget through EU cooperation. NABU chief Semen Kryvonos said the European Anti-Corruption Initiative and joint investigative teams with EU law-enforcement are now a “real tool” for asset recovery and directly strengthen Ukraine’s war‑time defense capacity. (Euromaidan Press, 02.13.26)
• NABU has placed former deputy head of the Presidential Office Rostyslav Shurma and his brother Oleh on Ukraine’s wanted list, on suspicion of large‑scale embezzlement (Article 191‑5) and money laundering (Article 209‑3) under a “green tariff” energy scheme. Both are listed as missing since February 12, 2026; Shurma was removed as deputy chief of staff in September 2024 and recently ousted from Naftogaz’s supervisory board. (Ukrinform, 02.13.26)
• Semen Kryvonos, director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), has said investigators in the high-profile Midas corruption case, which involves a close associate of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, are actively cooperating with approximately ten jurisdictions, including EU countries. Kryvonos stressed that NABU is not serving new notices of suspicion at this stage, but expects additional details in the case, which will be made public as soon as it becomes procedurally possible… Kryvonos also confirmed that extradition procedures are underway, particularly as regards certain individuals in Israel.. (Ukrainska Pravda, 02.10.26)
• Researchers studying 763 dogs across nine regions of Ukraine found that exposure to Russia’s invasion has rapidly pushed formerly domestic dogs toward traits typical of more wild populations. Data were collected via shelters, vets, volunteers in both safer and dangerous areas, and front-line sampling led by zoologist Ihor Dykyy, who served near Lyman and Kharkiv with the Ukrainian Armed Forces from 2022. (New York Times, 02.08.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance became the first sitting American vice president to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan, using the trip to advance a sweeping U.S. economic and security push in the South Caucasus. In Yerevan, Vance laid a wreath at the genocide memorial and briefly posted on X honoring victims of the “1915 Armenian Genocide” before the message was deleted and blamed on staff error, drawing outrage from Armenian American groups and accusations of appeasing Turkey. Vance signed a Section 123 civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Armenia, pledging up to $9 billion in potential U.S. nuclear investment—about $5 billion in initial exports and $4 billion in long-term fuel and maintenance—to replace the Soviet-era Metsamor plant and cut reliance on Russia. Armenian officials say total U.S.-led investment tied to the visit could exceed $13 billion. Vance also promoted the U.S.-backed “TRIPP” rail corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkey while bypassing Russia and Iran. Armenia is poised for more than $13 billion in potential U.S.-led investment—about half its $27 billion GDP—after Vice President JD Vance’s visit (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.26, Washington Post, 02.11.26, Bloomberg, 02.09.26, Bloomberg, 02.12.26, Bloomberg, 02.13.26)
• Russia’s “compatriots resettlement” program brought just 26,700 people in 2025, the lowest since 2011 and roughly one-third of the 2021 (pre‑full‑scale‑invasion) level; 75% came from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, while arrivals from many former USSR states have plunged sharply even as numbers from Germany rose from 110 in 2021 to 1,300 in 2025. (IStories, 02.10.26)
• Belarusian commentator Pavel Latushka’s channel argues that Alexander Lukashenko’s canceled trip to the U.S. and his absence from Trump’s Feb. 19 “World Council” summit reflect Kremlin pressure rather than “logistical difficulties,” while Dmitry Peskov confirmed Vladimir Putin will also skip the event as Moscow and Beijing signal they prefer the UN framework over Trump’s new forum. (Bolkunets and Bovt Telegram channels, 02.13.26)
• In the 2025–26 school year the number of pupils in Russian schools with citizenship of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan fell 27%, from 122,000 to 89,000, while the overall number of foreign-citizen schoolchildren dropped by a quarter to 129,000—the lowest in four years—amid tougher migration rules, Russian-language testing requirements for foreign children, and active checks of residence registration that have pushed many families to leave. (IStories, 02.12.26)
• Poland said radar detected balloon‑like objects violating its airspace overnight Feb. 8–9, the fifth such balloon incursion from the direction of Belarus since Jan. 27; ISW assesses Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and is using these low‑level airspace violations of NATO states as “Phase Zero” psychological shaping ahead of a possible future confrontation. (ISW, 02.09.26)
• Estonia deported a Russian man after he was accused of planning to gather intelligence on behalf of Moscow, authorities in the Baltic country said Thursday. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (ISS) said law enforcement detained a man identified as Andrei Zhuravlyov. (MT/AFP, 02.12.26)
• Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index assigned the following scores to countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Turkmenistan (17), Tajikistan (19) and Russia (22) are the region’s worst performers, reflecting repression and weak institutions, while Georgia (50) illustrates how democratic backsliding fuels corruption. By contrast, stronger civil society and oversight bodies in Ukraine (36) and Moldova (42) are driving more meaningful anti‑corruption reforms despite the war and political instability.. (Transparency International, 02.10.26)

Quotable and notable:

• Fiona Hill, who serves on the Harvard University Board of Overseers, said it is unclear what intelligence information Mr. Trump gets on Russia—or if he reads it… She suggested officials may be "selectively" looking for what they want to hear.” (The Mirror, 02.10.26, News4Jax, 02.10.26)

Footnotes

1. A Razumkov Center poll for the Kyiv Security Forum found 83.9% of Ukrainians now believe in victory over Russia (51.8% “yes” and 32.1% “rather yes”), up sharply from 73.9% in September 2025. (Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26)
2. For estimates of Russian and Ukrainian casualties, see endnotes of the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
3. Sources used for producing of this highlight include: BBC, 02.13.26, RFE/RL, 02.13.26, CNN, 02.12.26, Ukrainska Pravda, 02.13.26, New York Times, 02.12.26, RFE/RL, 02.13.26, RFE/RL, 02.13.26, Korrespondent.net, 02.13.26. Bloomberg, 02.13.26)

4. Also here are links to some of the MSC-2026 events with participation of the Belfer Center’s faculty and staff:

   “Rupture: (Re)thinking Middle Powers in a Fragmented World,” Meghan L. O'Sullivan, David E. Sanger, Ian Bremmer, Chrystia Freeland, Oliver Stuenkel, Ivan Krastev, A Belfer Center event, 02.13.26. Having broadcast this panel alive, MSC is yet to post a recording of it.

   “Mushrooming: Tackling Growing Nonproliferation Risks." Rafael Mariano Grossi, Natalia Pouzyreff, Graham Allison, Rose Gottemoeller, Meghan O'Sullivan, 02.13.26. Having broadcast this panel alive, MSC is yet to post a recording of it.

5. ISW says Russia used a brief Jan. 29–Feb. 1 moratorium on energy strikes to stockpile munitions, then launched two huge salvos—71 missiles and 450 drones on Feb. 2–3, and 408 drones plus 39 missiles on Feb. 6–7—while modifying Shahed drones with mines and cluster munitions, underscoring the need for more Western air defenses such as Patriot systems. (ISW, 02.07.26)
6. Ukraine used domestically produced FP‑5 Flamingo cruise missiles and long‑range drones on Feb. 11–12 to hit one of Russia’s largest GRAU ammunition depots near Kotluban in Volgograd Oblast (320 km from Ukraine), Lukoil’s Ukhta refinery in Komi (1,750 km from the border, 4.2m tons/year capacity), and the Michurinsk Progress defense plant in Tambov, causing major fires and secondary explosions. (ISW, 02.12.26)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI agents were used in production of this digest.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and others attend a meeting at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, Friday Feb. 13, 2026. (Kay Nietfeld/Pool via AP)