The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Jan. 28, 2026

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Jan. 27 update: RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 30, 2025–Jan. 27, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 106 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 117 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Dec. 2–Dec. 30, 2025). Russia launched at least 736 drones and 23 missiles against Ukraine in the period of Jan. 22–28, 2026, (which comprises the seven days that have passed since publication of the previous war card on Jan. 21, 2026), according to RM’s analysis of data it collected from Western, Ukrainian and Russian sources. Meanwhile, CSIS predicts that at current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026.

Territorial Control (figures as of Jan. 27, 2026)1

 

Russian Advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia as of Jan. 27, 2026

 

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +29,108 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Illinois).
  • Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +45,733 square miles. About 20% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.)2
  • In the period of Dec. 30, 2025–Jan. 27, 2026: Russian forces gained 106 square miles of Ukrainian territory. In 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains was 171 square miles.
  • In the past week (Jan. 20–27, 2026): Russia gained 44 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about the same as two of New York’s Manhattan Island).
  • In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions was 4 square miles over the past week (Jan. 20–27, 2026).
  • According to RM’s measurements, using ISW data, Russia captured 2,171 square miles—about 0.93% of Ukraine, including Crimea—in 2025.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–December 2025 (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

  • 1.2 million Russian military casualties (killed, wounded and missing) and as many as 325,000 killed between February 2022 and December 2025, according to CSIS’s January 2026 estimate.3
  • 500,000- 600,000 Ukrainian military casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, and between 100,000 and 140,000 fatalities between February 2022 and December 2025, according to CSIS’s January 2026 estimate.4 

Civilian fatalities5

  • Russia: 7,245 killed (7,175 in 2022–2025, 70 in 2026)
  • Ukraine: 15,954 killed.6 

Military vehicles and equipment7

  • Russia: 24,010 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,881.  
    • Aircraft: 361.
    • Naval vessels: 29.
  • Ukraine: 11,198 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,543.
    • Aircraft: 194.
    • Naval vessels: 42.

Citizens displaced

  • Russia:
    • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
    • 1,000,000 (0.7% of Russia’s 2022 population) left Russia for economic or political reasons in the first year of the full-scale war. Between 15% and 45% have returned since then, so, between 550,000 and 850,000 people have not returned to Russia.
  • Ukraine: 10.6 million displaced Ukrainians, 24% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:

Economic impact8

  • Russia’s cumulative economic growth in 2022–2025: 8%.
    • 0.9% GDP growth estimate for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2025: 2.6% of GDP.
    • Russian ruble: 0.01307 U.S.  dollars. 11% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 14.6 %.
  • Ukraine’s cumulative economic growth (negative) in 2022-2025: -21.2%
    • 2% GDP growth estimate for 2025.
    • Budget deficit estimate for 2025: 18.5% of GDP.
    • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02323 U.S. dollars. -31% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 21.9%.

Infrastructure

  • Russia:  
    • An investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
    • As of October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to the Russian energy market data. According to Reuters’ November 2025, estimate, however, Russia's oil processing has actually fallen just 3% this year despite Ukraine's drone attacks.
  • Ukraine:  
    • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
    • Some 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation was destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Some 50% of all of Ukraine’s hydropower installations were damaged and 40% destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Ukraine's energy infrastructure was operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
    • In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter of 2025–2026.
    • Ukraine's overall electricity consumption has fallen by around 30% since the launch of the Russian invasion, according to an October 2025 estimate.
    • ISW estimated in December 2025 that Russia’s strike campaign is close to splitting Ukraine’s power grid east–west, with eastern regions “at the brink” of blackout and Kyiv also at risk while Washington Post reported that Kyiv residents were facing up to 16 hours a day without power.
    • As a result of the Russian attacks, Ukraine’s available generating capacity has fallen from 33.7 GW at the start of the full‑scale invasion to about 14 GW as of January 2026, according to The Economist. The resulting outages have produced blackouts of several days in parts of Ukraine, The Economist wrote in January 2026.9
    • Russian attacks on Ukraine’s rail network “have caused $5.8 billion in damages since the start of the invasion,” according to a December 2025 report by WSJ.

Popular support

  • Russia: 61% support peace negotiations.
  • Ukraine: 26% “believe in the success of the [peace] negotiations [with Russia].”

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

  • Ammunition supply
  • Foreign military aid
  • Force generation
  • Military leadership
  • Training
  • Morale
  • Control of strategic locations
  • Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

 

Endnotes

  1. In this edition of War Report Card and going forward, RM relies on ISW’s regularly updated map layers to determine the frontline in Ukraine and in Russia (Kursk and Belgorod regions).
  2. RM’s methodology sums three ISW map layers to arrive at its totals each week rather than two (specifically, RM adds “Claimed Russian control over Ukrainian territory” to “Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory” and “Assessed Russian Advances in Ukraine”).
  3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. Almost 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
    4. More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli. 84,568 missing, according to an April 2025 estimate by the Ukrainian Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
    5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
    6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
    7. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
    8. Some 1 million in casualties, including 240,000 KIAs, according to British spy chief Richard Moore’s September 2025 estimate.
    9. Some 1,168,000 killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s December 2025 estimate.
    10. Russia: 1,100,000 casualties, according to ex-CIA director William Burns’ January 2026 interview in FT.
  4. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate. 35,000 missing.
    2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
    3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    4. 100,000 killed, according to Zelensky’s April 2025 estimate.
    5. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
    6. 73,000–140,000 killed, according to The Economist’s July 2025 estimate.
    7. 140,000 killed, according to BBC’s December 2025 estimate.
  5. RM cannot verify casualty figures.
  6. According to the U.N. Human Rights office of the high commissioner’s December 2025 report, the number of civilians killed since Feb. 24, 2022 in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government, reached 12,225. As for the number of civilians killed since Feb. 24, 2022 in Ukrainian territories controlled by the Russian government, it totaled 2,774.
  7. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.  
  8. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
  9. Earlier, a different estimate of Ukraine’s generating capacity and damage to it was provided by RM and CSIS: as of 2024, some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff.

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