8 Things to Know

1. Russia’s winter campaign of missile and drone strikes has narrowed to Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipro, with volleys roughly every two weeks aimed at isolating the cities from Ukraine’s grid and then destroying local plants with barrages coming amid lows of -18°C (-0.4°F). For instance, on Jan. 9, strikes on transformer substations around Kyiv severed it from the national network and hit all three of the capital’s gas- and coal-fired plants, cutting internal heat and power. By Jan. 13, Kyiv, which typically draws about 2,000 megawatts, was surviving on less than a tenth of that. While Kyiv remains on emergency blackouts of roughly three hours on and ten off many of Ukraine’s regions see 8–10.5 hours without power daily with some families have endured 50–55 hours straight without power. According to Ukraine’s Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal, “not a single power plant” has escaped damage from Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, which totaled 612 last year.¹
2. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 16, 2025–Jan. 13, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 79 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 215 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Nov. 18–Dec. 16, 2025), according to the Jan. 14 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Russia gained a monthly average of 171 square miles in 2025, according to the card. Worryingly for Ukraine, Russia’s “slow but steady advance in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast now threatens villages just 7 kilometers” from the limits of the 670,000‑strong capital of this southeastern Ukrainian province, according to The Economist.
3. The number of drones launched by Russia into Ukraine in December 2025 (5,649) was triple the number of drones launched in December 2024 (1,881), according to the Jan. 14 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. But, while the number of drones launched tripled, Ukraine was more successful at intercepting them, managing to intercept 4,659 drones (82.5%) compared to just 1,018 drones in December 2024 (54.1%), according to the card.
4. The total civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 reached at least 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured, which is a 31% increase compared to 2024 (2,088 killed; 9,138 injured) and a 70% increase compared to 2023 (1,974 killed; 6,651 injured), according to the UN. The vast majority of casualties verified by HRMMU in 2025 occurred in government-controlled territory from attacks launched by Russian armed forces (97%; 2,395 killed and 11,751 injured), according to the UN.
5. Ukraine’s new defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov says some 2 million Ukrainians are wanted for draft evasion and around 200,000 soldiers are absent without leave, leaving many regular brigades guarding positions for years with thinning ranks as assault units receive priority for replacements, armor and drones, according to Financial Times.
6. President Donald Trump said on Jan.14 that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now “the main impediment” to ending the four‑year war, insisting Vladimir Putin is “ready to make a deal” and arguing “we have to get President Zelenskyy to go along with it.” The Kremlin quickly endorsed that framing, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Moscow “can agree” that Kyiv is slowing talks. As Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner seek another trip to Moscow to push a 20‑point peace plan, Zelenskyy said a Ukrainian delegation is en route to the United States to meet Trump’s team on Jan. 17 and try to finalize parallel security and $800 billion reconstruction packages.²
7. As Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests entered a third week, declining, the Kremlin has adopted a low-key but supportive posture toward Tehran while positioning itself as a mediator between Iran and Israel. On Jan. 16, Vladimir Putin held his first public calls on the crisis with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, offering Russia’s services as a regional go between. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow is “ready to continue” mediation, which Israel and Iran reportedly used in late December, to private assurances via Russia that neither would launch preemptive strikes against the other.³ Having lost such allies as Syria’s Assad and Venezuela’s Maduro, Putin can ill afford further shrinking of Russia’s already rather shallow pool of allies. Thus, we are likely to continue to observe Putin’s efforts vis-à-vis the ruling regime in Iran, against which Trump has threatened to use force.
8. Speaking at a Kremlin ceremony for newly arrived foreign ambassadors, Vladimir Putin lamented that Russia’s official, business and diplomatic contacts with European states had sharply declined and that engagement on key foreign‑policy issues was “frozen,” according to AFP. Addressing envoys, including those representing Slovenia, France, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Italy, he said bilateral ties “leave much to be desired” but expressed hope relations would eventually return to “normal, constructive dialogue” based on respect for national interests and security concerns. Putin reiterated that Russia has repeatedly proposed a “reliable and fair” European and global security architecture and urged a renewed substantive discussion to create conditions for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. This looks like an overture to Europe, with the timing shaped likely by several setbacks and opportunities. Russia’s already thin circle of allies has shrunk with Maduro’s capture in Venezuela, and mounting pressure on Iran, another key partner, may have made Putin more concerned about the number of baskets in which Russia keeps its eggs. At the same time, the transatlantic rift over Greenland may make parts of Europe more open—at least tactically—to testing a separate channel with Moscow. Some EU states, notably Germany, France and Italy, have signaled support for renewed direct dialogue with Putin on Ukraine, suggesting there is space, however limited, for him to move towards normalizations of relations with Europe.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Economist reports that a Russian drone strike in February 2025 punched a hole in Chernobyl’s “new safe confinement” dome, igniting a fire and forcing firefighters to cut some 300 openings in the structure, damaging its airtight seal. Engineers warn that, without costly repairs running into the hundreds of millions of dollars, corrosion could eventually cause parts of the original sarcophagus to collapse and release radioactive dust. (The Economist, 01.08.26)

• Russian security services in Moscow have detained Mikhail Shcherbakov, former deputy head of the closed nuclear city of Sarov and now director for capital construction at Rosatom’s Atomstroyexport, on suspicion of financing Ukraine’s armed forces. (Istories, 01.16.26)
• Rosatom says its generating assets produced more than 233 billion kWh of electricity in 2025, including over 220 billion kWh from zero‑CO₂ sources (nuclear and wind) and more than 14 billion kWh from its thermal plants. The top‑producing nuclear stations were Balakovo (35.5+ billion kWh), Rostov (34+ billion) and Kalinin (33+ billion). Figures may be refined during preparation of official reports. (Rosatom, 01.12.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• As Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests entered a third week, the Kremlin has adopted a low‑key but supportive posture toward Tehran while positioning itself as a mediator. On Jan. 16, Vladimir Putin held his first public calls on the crisis with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian⁴ and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,⁵ offering Russia’s services as a regional go‑between. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow is “ready to continue” mediation, while Russia’s UN envoy accused Washington of “stirring up hysteria” and depicting the unrest as a Western‑backed “color revolution,” even as Iran remains a key arms supplier for Russia’s war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 01.16.26, Moscow Times, 01.16.26)
  • The Washington Post reports that in late December Israel and Iran exchanged private assurances via Russia that neither would launch preemptive strikes against the other, according to diplomats and regional officials. (Washington Post, 01.15.26)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov doubled down on Russia’s ties with Iran and Venezuela condemning recent U.S. military operations in Venezuela and saying no third party can alter the “fundamental nature” of Russia’s relations with Tehran. ISW notes Moscow is heavily reliant on Iranian weapons and technology—especially drones—for its long‑range strike campaign against Ukraine, and has signed strategic partnership deals with both countries. (ISW, 01.14.26)
• Iran has sold nearly $3 billion worth of missiles to Russia to aid President Vladimir Putin’s nearly four-year-long war in Ukraine, according to an assessment from a Western security official. Contracts with Moscow starting from October 2021—before the war began—for ballistic and surface-to-air missiles amount to roughly $2.7 billion, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The purchases have included hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, nearly 500 other short-range ballistic missiles and approximately 200 surface-to-air missiles associated with anti-aircraft defense systems. (Bloomberg, 01.12.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The total civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 reached at least 2,514 killed and 12,142 injured, which is a 31% increase compared to 2024 (2,088 killed; 9,138 injured) and a 70% increase compared to 2023 (1,974 killed; 6,651 injured), according to the UN. The vast majority of casualties verified by HRMMU in 2025 occurred in government-controlled territory from attacks launched by Russian armed forces (97%; 2,395 killed and 11,751 injured), according to the UN. (RM, January 2026)

• ISW, citing European government and UN data, says Russian strikes killed roughly 2,400–2,512 Ukrainian civilians and injured about 12,000 in 2025—about 30–31% more deaths than in 2024 and 70% more than in 2023, with 97% of casualties caused by Russian attacks on Ukrainian‑controlled areas. Over 2,000 civilians were killed after Trump and Putin agreed in March 2025 to explore a ceasefire, and some 15,000 civilians have died since February 2022. (ISW, 01.13.26)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• European governments’ report put total Ukrainian civilian deaths since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 at around 15,000, with more than 40,000 injured. It said there had been 758 Ukrainian children had been killed and a further 2,445 injured. (Bloomberg, 01.12.26)
• Istories reports that 43‑year‑old Colonel Sergei Karasev, former commander of Russia’s 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, has been appointed deputy mayor of Samara, despite being charged by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General in 2023 with war crimes in occupied Irpin—allegedly shooting an unidentified male civilian on a playground and beating a 1949‑born woman with a rifle butt, knocking out her teeth and ripping out her hair. (Istories, 01.12.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• The Boston Globe reports a sharp rise in trauma‑induced speech disorders among Ukrainian children after nearly four years of war, including sudden mutism, selective mutism, and severe stuttering. UNICEF estimates 1.5 million Ukrainian children are at risk of depression, anxiety, PTSD and related mental‑health issues, and at least one in five has lost a close loved one since the invasion began. (Boston Globe, 01.12.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• The International Committee of the Red Cross warned that recent strikes on power and critical infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia have left “millions” in places such as Kyiv, Dnipro, Donetsk and Belgorod with little or no electricity, water or heating amid extreme cold. Ariane Bauer, ICRC regional director for Europe and Central Asia, said the cumulative impact is “psychologically exhausting and life-threatening” for the most vulnerable and stressed that attacks causing disproportionate civilian harm by depriving access to essential services like electricity and heat “are prohibited.” (ICRC on X, 01.14.26)
  • Ukrainska Pravda reports that Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry summoned the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross delegation in Kyiv after the ICRC condemned recent strikes on “critical infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia,” listing Kyiv, Dnipro, Donetsk and Russia’s Belgorod. Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called the statement “shameful.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.15.26)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has held a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the energy situation in Ukraine. Rutte said the call focused on Ukraine's energy situation, where Russian attacks are causing "terrible human suffering," and pledged to help ensure Kyiv receives the assistance it needs." (European Pravda, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Zelenskyy said the electricity consumption in Ukraine was 18 GW, while the system's capacity was only 11 GW. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.16.26)
• Korrespondent.net reports that Zelenskyy said Kyiv expects an “energy Ramstein” meeting of donors to accelerate deliveries for Ukraine’s battered grid, noting partners have ample air‑defense missiles “on their warehouses” but legal hurdles slow transfers. The online meeting’s date is still being set; Ukraine will be represented by the prime minister and energy minister, as the country operates under an officially declared energy emergency amid daily Russian strikes and sub‑zero temperatures. (Korrespondent.net, 01.16.26)
• Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers approved changes that allow regions to introduce flexible curfew rules during an energy emergency. (RBC.ua, 01.16.26)
• For reports on military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia’s winter campaign of missile and drone strikes has narrowed to Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipro, with volleys roughly every two weeks aimed at isolating the cities from Ukraine’s grid and then destroying local plants. On Jan. 9, strikes on transformer substations around Kyiv severed it from the national network and hit all three of the capital’s gas‑ and coal‑fired plants, cutting internal heat and power. By Jan. 13, Kyiv, which typically draws about 2,000 megawatts, was surviving on less than a tenth of that. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told parliament Russia carried out 612 attacks on energy infrastructure in 2025 and that “not a single power plant” has escaped damage, with barrages coming amid lows of -18°C. Ukrenergo has imposed hourly outage schedules nationwide; many oblasts see 8–10.5 hours without power daily, while Kyiv remains on emergency blackouts of roughly three hours on and ten off. RFE/RL reports many residents get as little as three hours of electricity in 12, apartments hover around 15°C or lower, and some families have endured 50–55 hours straight without power, as experts describe a deliberate “weaponization of winter.” (New York Times, 01.15.26, Washington Post, 01.16.26, RBC.ua, 01.16.26, RFE/RL, 01.16.26)
• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Dec. 16, 2025–Jan. 13, 2026) indicates that Russian forces gained 79 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, a decrease over the 215 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Nov. 18–Dec. 16, 2025), according to the Jan. 14 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Russia gained a monthly average of 171 square miles in 2025, based on RM’s analysis of ISW data. Notably, the number of drones launched by Russia in December 2025 (5,649) was triple the number of drones launched in December 2024 (1,881)), according to the card But, while the number of drones launched tripled, Ukraine was more successful at intercepting them, managing to intercept 4,659 drones (82.5%) compared to just 1,018 drones in December 2024 (54.1%). (RM, 01.16.26)

Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

• On Friday, Jan. 9, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Markove and Kleban-Byk. (RM, 01.16.25)
• ISW says geolocated footage and Ukrainian and Russian reporting indicate Russia’s Jan. 8–9 Oreshnik intermediate‑range ballistic missile strike hit a defense industrial facility in southwestern Lviv City—likely the Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant—rather than the Stryi underground gas storage site. (ISW, 01.10.26)
• The U.N. said Russia’s Friday attacks caused “significant civilian casualties” and deprived “millions” of electricity, heat and water. Four people were killed in Kyiv. (Washington Post, 01.10.26)

Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026

• On Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vovchansk, Pokrovsk and near Vilcha. (RM, 01.16.25)
• Ukraine attacked with long‑range drones that set fire to the Zhutovskaya oil depot in Russia’s Volgograd region, which Kyiv says fuels Russian forces. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 94 Russian drones, while Moscow claims it “neutralized” 59 Ukrainian drones over Russia and occupied Crimea. (Washington Post, 01.10.26)
• The Insider calculates that Russia has lost at least 19 generals since launching its full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (The Insider, 01.09.26)

Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026

• On Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Shakhove and near Nove Shakhove. (RM, 01.16.25)
• In Kyiv, 30,000 people remained without power and roughly half of the city’s 12,000 apartment blocks briefly lost heat after Russia’s recent massive missile‑and‑drone barrage. (Washington Post, 01.11.26)
• A Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s city of Voronezh killed one woman and wounded three, damaging more than 10 apartment buildings, private houses and a high school; local authorities say air defenses shot down 17 drones over the city of just over 1 million, 250 km from Ukraine. (Washington Post, 01.11.26)
• The Wall Street Journal reports from inside Fire Point, the Ukrainian company developing the FP‑5 “Flamingo” cruise missile, a domestically produced long‑range weapon designed to hit deep targets in Russia. The Flamingo is over a bus-length long, weighs nearly 7 tons, carries a 2,500‑pound warhead, and is designed for a range of more than 1,800 miles—far beyond ATACMS or Storm Shadow and comparable to Russia’s Kalibr and Kh‑101. (Wall Street Journal, 01.11.26)
• Ukraine continued its long‑range campaign against Russian energy infrastructure overnight Jan. 10–11, with drones striking Lukoil drilling platforms at the Filanovsky, Graifer and Korchagin fields in the Caspian Sea. (ISW, 01.11.26)
• Russia is fielding a new long‑range strike drone, the Geran‑5, derived from Iran’s Karrar interceptor design. Ukrainian intelligence says Geran‑5 carries a ~90 kg warhead, has a range of about 1,000 km, and shares components with other Geran/Shahed drones. (ISW, 01.11.26)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• On Monday, Jan. 12, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Shandryholove and Svyato-Pokrovske. (RM, 01.16.25)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• On Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Lozova, Stepnohirsk and directly in the settlement. (RM, 01.16.25)

• The Economist reports that Russia’s slow but steady advance in Zaporizhzhia oblast now threatens villages just 7 kilometers from the city limits and has already led to the evacuation of children from nearby Kushuhum, while FPV drone strikes and long‑range Shaheds increasingly hit the city’s civilian infrastructure and power grid. Local officials say three‑quarters of the region, including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, are already occupied; Kyiv fears Moscow’s goal is less to capture the 670,000‑strong city than to terrorize residents into fleeing and force Ukraine toward a disadvantageous peace. (The Economist, 01.13.26)

•  On the night of Jan. 12–13, Russia launched a major strike on Ukraine’s power system, firing 293 Shahed/Gerbera‑type drones and 18 missiles (including Iskander M/S‑300 ballistic and Iskander‑K cruise missiles). Ukrainian air defenses shot down 240 drones and seven missiles (two ballistic, five cruise), but the remaining munitions hit 24 sites, causing extensive damage to energy infrastructure and substations in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Sumy, Kharkiv and Donetsk. One DTEK thermal plant was struck for the eighth time since October. After Russia’s overnight Jan. 13 strike, most districts of Kyiv are experiencing power outages, with at least 500 apartment buildings without electricity and some neighborhoods warned outages could last all day (Financial Times, 01.13.26, Financial Times, 01.13.26, ISW, 01.13.26, Istories, 01.13.26, Washington Post, 01.13.26)
• Ukraine stepped up long‑range drone attacks—most recently claiming a hit on the Atlant Aero drone plant in Taganrog, Russia—while the U.N. says 2,514 civilians were killed and 12,142 injured in Ukraine in 2025, 31% more than in 2024. (Washington Post, 01.13.26)
  • Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that the Jan. 13 missile strike on Russia’s Atlant Aero plant in Taganrog damaged the final Molniya drone assembly shop, two production workshops and the administrative building. (RBC.ua, 01.16.26)

• In the Black Sea, unidentified drones struck two oil tankers—the Kazakh‑chartered Matilda and Greek‑managed Delta Harmony—en route to the CPC terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk, causing explosions and minor damage but no casualties. Kazakhstan’s Kazmunaygas confirmed one Kazakh‑chartered tanker was hit but reported no serious damage and did not attribute responsibility. (ISW, 01.13.26, ISW, 01.13.26, MT/AFP, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• On Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zaliznyanske, Yablunivka and Stepnohirsk. (RM, 01.16.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday accused Ukraine of launching drones that struck a Greek-owned oil tanker off the Black Sea coast a day earlier, the latest in a string of maritime attacks in the region. On Tuesday, Greek authorities said drones hit two Greek-owned oil tankers, the Matilda and the Delta Harmony, one of which was due to load Kazakh oil near Russia’s coast. (MT/AFP, 01.14.26)

• A recent Ukrainian strike on Belgorod’s power and heating plants left about 600,000 residents without electricity and 200,000 without water, giving the Russian border city a “taste” of the blackouts Moscow has long inflicted on Ukraine. Days later, power was only partially restored amid -11°C temperatures; Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov called the situation “practically catastrophic,” urged families to be ready to evacuate. (Washington Post, 01.14.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• On Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Krasnohirske and advanced in Huliaipole, near Pryvilne and Zaliznyanske. (RM, 01.16.25)
• Despite Kremlin claims that Ukraine is “collapsing,” ISW notes that at Russia’s high‑water mark in March 2022 it held 26.16% of Ukraine, but that fell to 19.32% by end‑2025—just ~1.5 percentage points gained in three years. (ISW, 01.15.26)
• Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov claimed Russia seized “more than 300 km²” in the first two weeks of January 2026 and is advancing “in virtually all directions,” but ISW’s mapping shows only 73.82 km² of new Russian presence between Dec. 31 and Jan. 13—about one‑quarter of his figure—mostly small moves, such as limited cross‑border incursions capturing two tiny villages (Hrabovske and, allegedly, Komarivka) in Sumy oblast. (ISW, 01.15.26)
• Ukraine’s ability to plug gaps along the 1,000-kilometer front is being stretched as a shrinking pool of experienced troops is concentrated at crisis points. The FT reports that elite “firefighter” units helped push Russian forces back from Kupiansk, while 250 kilometers to the south, undermanned territorial brigades around Huliaipole allowed Moscow to advance nearly 15 kilometers in two months and reach within 15 kilometers of Zaporizhzhia city. (Financial Times, 01.15.26)
• New defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov says some 2 million Ukrainians are wanted for draft evasion and around 200,000 soldiers are absent without leave, leaving many regular brigades guarding positions for years with thinning ranks as assault units receive priority for replacements, armor and drones. (Financial Times, 01.15.26)
• Russia’s latest strikes have produced Kyiv’s worst heating and power crisis of the war, with the city consuming under 200 megawatts of electricity on Tuesday—less than one-tenth of its normal 2,000‑MW demand, according to Ukrainian energy analysts. City authorities say about 500 apartment buildings have no heat at all after missiles and drones knocked out all three of Kyiv’s gas‑ and coal‑fired plants plus key transformer substations, briefly isolating the capital from the national grid. With temperatures around 12°F (-11°C), officials are routing scarce power only to critical infrastructure such as water pumps and the metro, leaving most residential areas dark and cold for days on end and forcing some families to evacuate to relatives outside the city. (New York Times, 01.15.26)
• RBC‑Ukraine reports that after repeated Russian strikes, all of Kyiv is on emergency blackouts: on the right bank power is being supplied roughly 5 hours on, 5 hours off, while on the left bank residents are getting only 3–4 hours with electricity followed by 9–10 hours without. As of Jan. 14, about 287 of the ~6,000 high‑rise buildings that lost heat after the Jan. 9 attack were still not reconnected. (RBC.ua, 01.15.26)
• Ukrainska Pravda publishes a column noting that the widely cited figure of 200,000 cases of “self‑authorized absence from unit” in Ukraine’s armed forces is largely misleading because the statistic counts events, not unique soldiers, and multiple absences by the same person are tallied separately and never removed when a soldier returns. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• On Friday, Jan. 16, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Sofiyivka. (RM, 01.16.26)
• “Russia launched around 55,000 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against targets in Ukraine in 2025, an approximate five-fold increase on the number launched in 2024, according to UK MoD. (UK MOD X Account, 01.16.26)
• Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said that about 100 apartment buildings remained without heating out of the 6,000 buildings affected after Russia’s Jan. 9 mass strike on the capital. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.16.26)
• In Ryazan, about 185 km southeast of Moscow, regional authorities say two people were lightly injured and the facades of two high‑rise blocks damaged when at least one Ukrainian drone slammed into a 26‑story building. Russia’s Defense Ministry claims air defenses downed 22 drones over Ryazan and 106 over nine Russian regions plus occupied Crimea overnight. (Moscow Times, 01.16.26)
• Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy asserted that Ukrainian forces liberated about 300 square kilometers of territory in 2025 (Korrespondent.net, 01.16.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026

• ISW reports the U.K. will start producing Ukrainian‑designed “Octopus” interceptor drones—each costing under 10% of a Russian Shahed—aiming to manufacture thousands per month from January 2025. These drones can intercept Shahed‑type systems, and London plans design upgrades every six weeks to keep pace with Russian adaptations such as camera‑equipped, radio‑controlled Shaheds and thermobaric or MANPADS‑armed variants. ISW argues scaling such interceptor drones is crucial for shoring up Ukraine’s and Europe’s air defenses against Russia’s escalating long‑range strike campaign. (ISW, 01.10.25)
• The U.K. is preparing for possible troop deployments to post‑war Ukraine, announcing £200 million (about $268 million) to ready British forces for a future multinational assurance force as part of security guarantees in a peace deal. ISW says the funds will upgrade vehicles, communications, counter‑drone defenses and force‑protection gear, while Moscow reiterates that any Western troops in Ukraine would be “legitimate” targets and that such guarantees are “unacceptable.” (ISW, 01.10.26)

Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026

• Ukraine overnight targeted three drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Russian oil major Lukoil in the latest move to weaken Russia’s economic capacity to fund its war effort. The platforms, V. Filanovsky, Yuri Korchagin, and Valery Grayfe, sustained direct hits, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on its Telegram channel. The extent of the damage is being assessed, it added. (Bloomberg, 01.11.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• Ukraine’s partners are adding new capabilities: Rheinmetall says the first five Lynx KF41 IFVs from a December 2025 contract will arrive in early 2026, and the UK is developing the “Nightfall” short‑range ballistic missile (range 500+ km, 200 kg warhead), planning to produce 10 missiles a month at up to £800,000 each and to award three design/production contracts by March 2026. Zelenskyy said his top priority in talks with Ground Forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is securing more air‑defense missiles via mechanisms such as the PURL initiative. (ISW, 01.12.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• Poland plans to transfer up to nine additional MiG‑29 fighter jets to Ukraine under a deal that would see Warsaw receive Ukrainian drone technologies in exchange. Deputy defense minister Paweł Zalewski said the government decision is made and that Kyiv has “accepted” in principle, with initial deliveries of “less than ten” aircraft pending agreement on logistics and maintenance. Poland has already supplied 10 MiG‑29s since 2023 and has 14 left in its own fleet. (Korrespondent.net, 01.15.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• The European Union will direct Ukraine to purchase mostly European armaments with a new €90 billion ($105 billion) loan unless there is an “urgent need” and no local option available. The guidelines were part of a proposal that the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, unveiled on Wednesday to keep Ukraine afloat as Russia’s full-scale war enters its fifth year. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)
• The EU will devote €60 billion of a new €90 billion ($105 billion) loan package for 2026–27 to Ukraine’s military needs and €30 billion to budget support, with repayment contingent on Russia ending the war and paying reparations. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the aim is to keep Ukraine “in a position of strength” and further integrate it into Europe’s defense industrial base; the plan still needs approval from member states and the European Parliament and is meant to complement IMF lending and contributions from partners such as the U.K., Canada, Japan and Norway, while being tied to rule‑of‑law and anti‑corruption reforms in Kyiv. (Washington Post, 01.15.26)
• Several air defense systems in Ukraine had been left without missiles, but a major package arrived on the morning of Jan. 16, 2026, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a press conference in Kyiv with Czech President Petr Pavel. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.15.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• Finnish police said Monday that they lifted the seizure of a cargo ship suspected of damaging an undersea cable in the Gulf of Finland on New Year’s Eve after it departed from a port in Russia. (MT/AFP, 01.12.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• the EU will channel most of a new €90 billion ($105 billion) loan program to Ukraine’s military needs in 2026–27, with about €60 billion earmarked for defense and €30 billion for budget support. Kyiv will only start repaying once Russia ends the war and pays reparations; von der Leyen stressed the funds are conditional on rule‑of‑law and anti‑corruption reforms. (Washington Post, 01.14.26)

• The Wall Street Journal says Citigroup’s fourth‑quarter profit fell 13% to $2.47 billion despite a 2% rise in revenue to $19.87 billion, largely because the bank booked a ~$1.2 billion loss—about $0.62 per share—on the sale of its remaining operations in Russia, where it has been unwinding business since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Trading revenue slipped 1% to $4.54 billion, while investment‑banking fees jumped 35% to $1.29 billion; for the full year, Citi’s profit still rose 13% to $14.31 billion. (Wall Street Journal, 01.14.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• Russia’s FSB security service on Thursday accused an employee of the British Embassy in Moscow of being an undercover spy and ordered him to leave the country within two weeks. According to the FSB, the employee, identified as 45-year-old Gareth Samuel Davies, was sent to Russia under the diplomatic cover of second secretary of the administrative section at the British Embassy in Moscow. Since 2024, Russia has expelled at least nine British diplomats accused of espionage. The British government has dismissed the allegations against its diplomatic staff in each instance and vowed to “respond appropriately.” (MT/AFP, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• A Moscow arbitration court has begun a closed‑door case brought by Russia’s Central Bank against Belgian clearing house Euroclear over frozen Russian reserves. The Central Bank is seeking about $232 billion (18.2 trillion rubles) in damages, alleging Euroclear acted illegally by blocking its funds and securities under EU sanctions and claiming lost returns. The EU has frozen roughly €210 billion ($244 billion) in Russian assets since 2022, of which about €193 billion is held at Euroclear. The lawsuit comes as Brussels advances an EU‑backed loan for Ukraine funded by windfall profits on these assets, while Moscow denounces any use of them for Kyiv as a violation of sovereign immunity. (Moscow Times, 01.16.26, Washington Post, 01.16.26)
• U.S. fund Noble Capital RSD has sued Russia in U.S. federal court for more than $225 billion over Imperial‑era sovereign bonds issued in 1916 that were repudiated after the 1917 revolution, and has asked to satisfy the claim by seizing frozen Russian sovereign assets. Legal experts quoted by RBC and The Moscow Times say the case is unlikely to succeed but could influence debates in Washington over using immobilized Russian reserves to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. (Moscow Times, 01.16.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• The Financial Times reports that G7 leaders from Italy, Germany, France, Canada and the UK, plus European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, plan to meet President Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Davos next week to secure Trump’s personal backing for U.S.–designed security guarantees for a post‑ceasefire Ukraine. Europeans see U.S. commitment as essential—especially to planned UK‑French troop deployments—but remain uneasy after Trump’s past pro‑Russian remarks; his envoys say the security protocols are “largely finished” and “as strong as anyone has ever seen.” (Financial Times, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• On Wednesday Trump, who has struggled throughout his presidency to end Russia's war in Ukraine despite campaign boasts that he could end it in a day, said Zelenskyy is the main impediment to resolving the four-year-old war. Trump said Putin was "ready to make a deal." Asked what the holdup is, Trump said simply: "Zelenskyy." “We have to get President Zelenskyy to go along with it," he said. (Reuters, 01.14.26)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov endorsed President Trump’s claim that Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, not Russia, are slowing peace talks, saying Moscow “can agree” and that Russia’s position is “well known” to U.S. negotiators and Kyiv. He argued that conditions for Ukraine are “worsening day by day” and that it is “long past time” for Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s demands, while confirming that channels remain open with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and that Moscow hopes their next visit will be scheduled soon. (Korrespondent.net, 01.15.26)

• Bloomberg reports that Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are seeking a trip to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin this month to push a 20‑point Ukraine peace plan that U.S. and Ukrainian officials say is about 90% complete. Sticking points include Russia’s demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from remaining parts of Donbas, opposition to any NATO troop presence, recognition of occupied territory as Russian, control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and the fate of roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)

• Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled that Russia’s war aims extend beyond the territory discussed in current peace plans, invoking “Novorossiya” to imply claims over all of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts in addition to Crimea and the four annexed regions—demands that exceed the U.S. 28‑point plan, which only contemplated Russian control of Crimea, all of Luhansk/Donetsk, and occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. (ISW, 01.14.26)
• State Duma deputies reiterated that any foreign troops deployed to post‑war Ukraine as security guarantors would be “legitimate” targets, underscoring Moscow’s insistence that the U.S., Europe and Kyiv accept Russia’s maximalist terms. (ISW, 01.14.26)
• A KIIS survey (Jan. 9–14) finds that 54% of Ukrainians categorically reject transferring the entire Donbas to Russia in exchange for U.S. and European security guarantees, while 39% would accept such a concession (most reluctantly) and 5% were undecided. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.16.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• RBC‑Ukraine reports that U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said peace talks on ending the Russia‑Ukraine war are “as close as they’ve ever been” to a deal, describing negotiations as being in the “last yard in the red zone” of American football and calling this final stage the hardest. (RBC.ua, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Russia welcomed signs that several major EU states want to reopen direct talks with Moscow over Ukraine, calling it a “significant shift” in Europe’s stance. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that recent comments by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about restarting dialogue or “rebalancing” ties were “in line with how Russia believes things should evolve.” He contrasted their position with Britain’s “radical stance,” after Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said London saw no evidence Moscow wants peace. Peskov added that, while Russia is in ongoing contact with the United States on a possible deal, “no such dialogue currently exists” with European governments. (Reuters, 01.16.26)
• Volodymyr Zelensky says a U.S.–Ukraine peace package being negotiated with President Donald Trump could be signed as soon as next week on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, if remaining terms are agreed. A Ukrainian delegation is traveling to the United States for talks on bilateral security guarantees and a multiyear “prosperity package” tied to a ceasefire. Zelensky said Kyiv will also seek clarity on Moscow’s stance, noting Russia has not shifted from its maximalist demands; the trip follows Trump’s claim that Putin is “ready to make a deal” and that Zelensky is holding it up. (Independent, 01.16.26)
• Zelenskyy said a Ukrainian delegation is en route to the U.S. for meetings with Trump’s team in the coming days to clarify outstanding issues in the nearly finalized security‑guarantees and reconstruction packages, expressing hope that, if remaining points are resolved, he and Trump could sign an agreement at next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos tied to a 10‑year, $800 billion “prosperity plan” for Ukraine. RBC‑Ukraine reports that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations will open a new round of talks in Miami on January 17 focused on two key issues: a bilateral security guarantees pact and Ukraine’s long‑term economic development. Ambassador to the U.S. Olha Stefanishyna said consultations on the “future security architecture” and “long‑term economic prosperity” are continuing, and that the Miami talks will include National Security and Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov, Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov, and ruling Servant of the People faction leader David Arakhamia on the Ukrainian side (European Pravda, 01.16.26, RBC.ua, 01.16.26)
• Czech President Petr Pavel said Ukraine will have to make “a number of painful concessions” for peace and is “ready to do so” if it truly ends the war, stressing that the U.S. plays a “key role” in any settlement and Europe “cannot stand aside.” His comments come as Zelenskyy says a 20‑point peace plan is about 90% agreed but territorial issues remain unresolved. (RBC.ua, 01.16.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

• President Trump said Venezuela’s interim government “seems to be an ally” and that the U.S. “doesn’t want to have Russia there. We don’t want to have China there,” linking his Venezuela policy to his push to acquire Greenland by warning that if Washington “doesn’t take Greenland,” Russia or China would end up “as your next-door neighbor.” (Financial Times, 01.09.26)

Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026

• Pope Leo XIV again indirectly criticized President Trump’s Venezuela intervention and broader foreign policy, warning in his annual address against “a diplomacy based on force” and a “zeal for war” He has also cautioned that Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is “trying to break apart” the long‑standing U.S.-Europe alliance and backed U.S. bishops’ criticism of the administration’s mass deportation policies, insisting migrants must be treated “humanely” and with “dignity.” (Axios, 01.10.26)

Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026

• Nordic diplomats and Norway’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide flatly rejected President Trump’s claim that waters around Greenland are “covered with Russian and Chinese ships,” saying NATO intelligence shows “no ships, no submarines” from Russia or China near the island in recent years. Greenlandic and Danish officials add that Chinese activity has been “next to nothing” since a 2018 airport deal was blocked, and Greenland’s parties reiterated: “We do not want to be Americans, we do not want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders.” (Financial Times, 01.11.26)
• NATO’s failure to issue any public statement defending Denmark and Greenland’s territorial integrity in the face of Trump’s threats to seize the island has “rattled” European allies. Leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and Denmark released a joint declaration vowing they “will not stop defending” sovereignty and the inviolability of borders, while Danish PM Mette Frederiksen warned that if the U.S. attacked another NATO state “everything stops. Including our NATO.” Some Danish lawmakers are now calling for an Article 4 consultation, and EU officials are floating ideas such as a “Greenland Sentry” mission modelled on Baltic Sentry. (Financial Times, 01.11.26)
• Britain is consulting NATO allies on boosting Western military presence in the Arctic to counter President Trump’s threats to “take over” Greenland and to reassure the U.S. that allies can help secure the region without annexation. A UK official said London is “working with Nato allies to… bolster Arctic deterrence and defense,” noting that 1,500 Royal Marines will deploy this year for Exercise Cold Response across Norway, Finland and Sweden. EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen meanwhile proposed doubling EU funding for Greenland to about €530 million in the next budget as part of wider Arctic security efforts. (Financial Times, 01.11.26)
• South Africa, already at odds with the Trump administration, has begun joint naval exercises with warships from Iran, Russia and China, billed by Pretoria as drills to improve maritime safety, trade and interoperability but seen by analysts as likely to provoke Washington further. (Wall Street Journal, 01.11.26)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that the Arctic and Northern Europe have become a “front line for strategic competition” as Russia and China increase joint naval patrols north of Russia, Alaska and Canada and conduct “bathymetric surveys” aimed at countering NATO forces rather than “studying the seals and the polar bears.” He said NATO has consolidated all Arctic activities under Joint Force Command Norfolk, is expanding Arctic ISR and infrastructure, and will rely on Arctic‑capable forces from seven of the eight Arctic states (all but Russia) to strengthen deterrence, even though he sees no immediate attack threat while Russia’s military remains tied down in Ukraine. (Defense News, 01.12.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• Greenland’s government said it will intensify efforts to ensure the island’s defenses are managed within the NATO military alliance, pushing back on renewed threats from the U.S. about taking over the territory. “All NATO member states, including the United States, share a common interest in the defense of Greenland,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement issued late Monday. “The Government coalition in Greenland will therefore, in cooperation with Denmark, work to ensure that dialogue and further development of Greenland’s defense take place within the NATO framework.” The message comes ahead of a high-stakes meeting of Danish and Greenland foreign ministers with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Wednesday, according to media reports. (Bloomberg, 01.13.26)
• Greenland’s coalition government, led by Premier Jens‑Frederik Nielsen, has formally called for its defense to be handled “within the NATO framework” amid President Trump’s threats to seize the island from Denmark. (Financial Times, 01.13.26)
• UK Chief of the Defense Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton told MPs the armed forces are “not as ready as we need to be for the kind of full-scale conflict that we might face,” citing an in-year budget shortfall that means he cannot fund both existing programs and the government’s new Strategic Defense Review. With defense spending only set to rise from about 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and no money yet allocated for a promised 3.5% by 2035, Knighton said “we can’t do everything” in the SDR without cuts, while the long-delayed Defense Investment Plan may not appear until March. (Financial Times, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• Denmark said a “fundamental disagreement” remained after a high-stakes meeting with the U.S. over Greenland as several countries including Germany said they’d send military personnel to the Arctic island. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)
• Axios, citing new Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov polling, says only 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, including 40% of Republicans, and just 4% overall (8% of Republicans) think using military force to take it is a good idea. By contrast, a slim majority of Americans view Venezuela as unfriendly or an enemy (51%), versus only 9% for Greenland, helping explain why support for Trump’s Venezuelan raid is higher than for his deeply unpopular Greenland gambit. (Axios, 01.14.26)
• Germany will take the lead of European nations sending military personnel to Greenland after Denmark said its meeting with top U.S. officials intent on controlling the world’s biggest island revealed that a “fundamental disagreement” remains. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)

• German prosecutors have charged two Ukrainian men, Daniil B. and Vladyslav T., with espionage over an alleged Russian‑directed plot to use parcel bombs against postal and freight depots in Germany and along routes to Ukraine, after they first mailed GPS‑equipped packages to map logistics hubs. A third Ukrainian, Yevhen B., extradited from Switzerland, is expected to be charged soon. (Financial Times, 01.14.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• France, Germany, Sweden and Norway have deployed troops to Greenland at Denmark’s request for a Jan. 15–17 mission to “study measures” to strengthen the island’s security amid U.S. claims on the territory. Units from the Netherlands and Canada will also take part in the drills. European soldiers have already begun arriving near Nuuk, as Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said “fundamental disagreements” with Washington remain after White House talks, with Trump reiterating that the U.S. still wants to acquire Greenland for national security reasons. (Istories, 01.15.26)
• Denmark plans to make NATO’s presence in Greenland “more permanent,” with more Danish troops based on the island and small rotational deployments from allies including France, Germany, the UK, Finland and the Netherlands. Officials say the modest forces are meant to signal that NATO is stepping up on Arctic security rather than to counter a U.S. invasion, as European leaders work with Washington in a new high‑level group while still facing “fundamental disagreement” with Trump over his push to take control of Greenland. (Financial Times, 01.15.26)
• Russian officials and pro-Kremlin figures have accused the West of “militarizing” the Arctic and ridiculed what they described as Europe’s inability to defend Greenland as U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to take control of the mineral-rich Arctic island. (MT/AFP, 01.15.26)
• A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers will introduce new legislation Thursday to establish a $2.5 billion "Strategic Resilience Reserve" (SRR) for critical minerals, Axios has learned. President Trump is bringing his prospector's pick to nearly every corner of the globe—including Ukraine, Venezuela and Greenland—in a push to boost the U.S. supply of minerals that are critical to the tech industry's growth. (Axios, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Denmark’s top Arctic commander said his focus in Greenland is on deterring Russia, not preparing for any U.S. threat, despite President Donald Trump’s hints he might use force to seize the island. Maj. Gen. Søren Andersen told Reuters there are currently no Russian or Chinese ships near Greenland—only a Russian research vessel 310 nautical miles away—but he expects Russian activity to increase and is boosting NATO training and presence. Denmark has earmarked 42 billion kroner ($6.5 billion) for Arctic defense and has invited the U.S. to join this year’s Arctic Endurance exercise after excluding it from similar drills in September. (Reuters, 01.16.26)
• U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, visiting Copenhagen with a congressional delegation, warned that Trump’s talk of seizing Greenland by force “erodes decades of hard won confidence among allies” and “plays right into the hands of our greatest adversaries, Russia and China,” arguing Putin would welcome any NATO fracture or diversion from Ukraine. (bne IntelliNews, 01.16.26)
• Speaking at a Kremlin ceremony for newly arrived foreign ambassadors, Vladimir Putin lamented that Russia’s official, business and diplomatic contacts with European states had sharply declined and that engagement on key foreign‑policy issues was “frozen.” Addressing envoys, including those representing Slovenia, France, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Italy, he said bilateral ties “leave much to be desired” but expressed hope relations would eventually return to “normal, constructive dialogue” based on respect for national interests and security concerns. Putin reiterated that Russia has repeatedly proposed a “reliable and fair” European and global security architecture and urged a renewed substantive discussion to create conditions for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 01.16.26, Kremlin.ru, 01.15.25.)
• Speaking at a Kremlin ceremony for newly arrived foreign ambassadors, Vladimir Putin said, “The Russian-Cuban alliance has withstood the test of time and is rooted in the sincere mutual goodwill of our peoples.” “I would also like to underscore that Russia has long maintained close, constructive relations with many countries of Latin America, treating the states of the region with the utmost respect as equal, sovereign partners. This fully applies to the countries represented here today: Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 01.15.25.)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The flow of trade between Russia and China contracted for the first time in five years in 2025 amid falling demand for Chinese car imports in Russia and a drop in the value of Russian crude oil exported to China, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing official data. The value of imports and exports between the two countries last year totaled $228.1 billion, marking a 6.9% decrease from the record-high $244.8 billion in 2024, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. That decline ended four years of consecutive growth in bilateral trade. Chinese exports to Russia dropped by 9.9% year-on-year, Reuters reported, attributing most of the decline to a 46% fall in vehicle exports between January and November 2025. The value of imports from China, meanwhile, fell by 3.4%. According to Reuters, the decline was largely driven by falling oil prices. (MT/AFP, 01.14.26)
  • China has fully halted electricity imports from Russia since Jan. 1, 2026, including the minimum contracted volume of about 12 MW, according to Kommersant sources. The cutoff was driven by export prices rising above domestic Chinese prices, making imports uneconomical. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.15.26)
• Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said China continues to exert military pressure on regional states despite a recent push for “stability” in U.S.–China relations after the Trump-Xi summit, citing ongoing PLA assertiveness toward ASEAN countries, especially the Philippines near Scarborough Shoal, and increased activity around Japan’s Senkaku Islands. Paparo stressed alliance cohesion, while former Pentagon official Ely Ratner warned that prioritizing U.S.-China “stability” over alliances risks enabling Beijing’s strategy. (Financial Times, 01.13.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is still waiting for a U.S. response to Vladimir Putin’s proposal to informally extend the New START treaty’s provisions for one year ahead of its expiry in three weeks. New START, signed in 2010, caps each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and no more than 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and nuclear‑capable bombers. Trump has told the New York Times that “if it expires, it expires,” preferring a broader pact that includes China; Moscow says any future framework should also factor in British and French nuclear forces. (Reuters, 01.15.26)
  • Sergey Karaganov, who heads Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, told Tucker Carlson that should Russia come close to losing the war, Vladimir Putin 'would use nuclear weapons and Europe would be finished physically. (Inkl.com, 01.16.26)
• Arms Control Today reports that the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed Dec. 18, authorizes $901 billion in discretionary defense spending plus $118 billion in mandatory funds and adds more than $2 billion above President Trump’s request for nuclear modernization and strategic missile defense. (Arms Control Today, January 2026)
• At a U.N. Security Council meeting requested by Kyiv, U.S. deputy ambassador Tammy Bruce accused Russia of a “dangerous and inexplicable escalation” for firing a nuclear‑capable Oreshnik ballistic missile near Poland and intensifying strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid just as U.S.‑led peace talks advance. (Washington Post, 01.13.26)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Monday that it hit an aviation repair plant in Ukraine’s western Lviv region last week with an Oreshnik ballistic missile, marking the first time either side has publicly named the alleged target of the strike. The military said it fired the Oreshnik in response to an alleged drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence last month. (MT/AFP, 01.12.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Polish officials revealed that Russia carried out the largest cyberattack in years on Poland’s energy grid in late December 2025, targeting a thermal power plant and several renewable sites and risking a national blackout. ISW assesses the operation as part of Moscow’s broader “Phase Zero” campaign—using cyber and hybrid tools to set political, informational and psychological conditions for a potential future conflict with NATO. (ISW, 01.14.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. forces have now seized five shadow‑fleet tankers under Trump’s Venezuelan oil blockade, including Bella 1/Marinera and Olina, despite a surge of reflagging to Russia: Lloyd’s List says more than 15 tankers involved in sanctioned shipments switched to the Russian flag in just two weeks, while S&P Global counts 25 reflagged to Russia in the last quarter of 2025, 18 of them in December and 16 already under U.S. or UK sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 01.11.26)
• Trump’s bid to rehabilitate and control Venezuela’s oil sector—potentially adding up to 2 million barrels a day within 1–3 years, on top of today’s sub‑1 million—is a major new headache for OPEC. With Brent already near $63 and U.S. crude around $59, extra Venezuelan output under U.S. sway could deepen the glut and erode the cartel’s clout. JPMorgan estimates that U.S.-aligned reserves in Venezuela, Guyana and the U.S. could give Washington influence over about 30% of global oil reserves, further shifting market power away from OPEC. (Wall Street Journal, 01.11.26)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• ISW, citing Lloyd’s List and S&P data, reports that more than 15 shadow‑fleet tankers shipping sanctioned oil re‑flagged to Russia in the past two weeks alone, and 25 did so between October and December 2025 (18 in December; 16 already under U.S./UK sanctions). The moves—meant to deter interdictions—come as the UK identifies legal tools to board illegitimately flagged tankers and Ukraine welcomes tougher action against the sanctions‑evading fleet off Venezuela. (ISW, 01.12.26)
• Having some measure of control over Venezuelan oil exports could indeed provide Mr. Trump with additional international leverage. Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School, said one result could be a decrease in the influence of the OPEC oil cartel and of “U.S. adversaries that might seek to influence oil markets.” (New York Times, 01.12.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• The dark fleet of tankers shipping illicit oil around the world is rushing to seek the perceived protection of the Russian flag after the U.S. started seizing vessels involved in the Venezuelan trade. At least 26 ships have switched registration to Russia since the beginning of last month, with the bulk of those happening after the U.S. snatched the Skipper supertanker off the coast of Venezuela on Dec. 10, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence data. (Bloomberg, 01.13.26)
• Tankers hauling Russia’s crude are piling up at sea with nowhere to go, as Moscow struggles to revive the Indian market that saved its oil trade when European buyers turned away after the Ukraine invasion. The country shipped 3.42 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 11, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s down by about 450,000 barrels a day from a pre-Christmas peak, though just 30,000 barrels a day lower than the period to Jan. 4 and above the average level for the whole of last year. A 15th straight drop in prices combined with another small decline in flows sent the value of shipments to a new low for the period since the invasion. (Bloomberg, 01.13.26)
• Microsoft president Brad Smith warned Chinese AI firms are overtaking U.S. rivals in the global “open model” market, especially in the global south, thanks to heavy state subsidies and low-cost, open-source systems like DeepSeek’s R1. Microsoft’s internal usage data suggest DeepSeek has about an 18% share in Ethiopia and 17% in Zimbabwe, while U.S. companies focus on proprietary, subscription-based models. (Financial Times, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• An oil tanker sailing under the flag of Russia arrived in UK territorial waters—days after it was seized in the Atlantic Ocean by U.S. forces. “The Bella 1 entered UK waters to be replenished with essential supplies - including food and water for the crew - yesterday before it continues its onward journey,” the country’s Department for Transport said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• U.S. forces seized a sixth tanker, the Veronica (recently renamed Galileo and reflagged to Russia), in a pre‑dawn raid launched from the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford near Venezuela, as part of Trump’s blockade on “dark fleet” vessels moving sanctioned Venezuelan crude. The crackdown has cut January crude loadings to about half normal levels, with roughly 15.5 million barrels stranded on 17 tankers off Venezuela and most remaining exports limited to U.S.-bound or domestic refinery shipments. (Wall Street Journal, 01.15.26)
• Hungarian energy company Mol Nyrt. is closing in on the takeover of Serbia’s sole refinery as U.S. sanctions force Russia’s Gazprom Neft PJSC to sell its majority stake. (Bloomberg, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• European gas benchmark futures have jumped more than 30% this week—the biggest weekly gain since the October 2023 Israel‑Hamas shock—as a “perfect storm” of deep cold, short‑covering and geopolitical risk hits the market. (Bloomberg, 01.16.26)
• An opaque Aframax tanker calling itself Arcusat abruptly U‑turned while heading toward German waters in the Baltic and is now sailing north toward Russia’s Arctic coast. (Bloomberg, 01.16.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

• Asked whether the U.S. might mount a Venezuela-style raid to capture Vladimir Putin, Trump told reporters, “I don’t think it’s going to be necessary,” stressing that he has “always had a great relationship” with Russia. He was responding to Zelenskyy’s remark that if the U.S. can seize dictators like Maduro, it “knows what to do next.” (Financial Times, 01.09.26)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• The U.S. Soccer Federation has denied reports that it is in talks with its Russian counterpart about organizing football matches between the Russian and U.S. national teams. (MT/AFP, 01.12.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• Meduza and Fox News report that the U.S. State Department will indefinitely pause immigrant visa processing from 75 countries starting Jan. 21—including Russia, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Thailand and others—while it reassesses screening under “public charge” rules; consular officers are instructed to refuse visas under existing law during the review, part of a broader Trump‑era crackdown following high‑profile fraud cases. (Meduza, Fox News, 01.14.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• Sales of Russia’s flagship car brand Lada fell by nearly 25% in 2025, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Tuesday, citing data compiled by market research firm Avtostat. Lada sales fell 24.4% year-on-year to 329,890 vehicles. That further cut the brand’s market share to 24.88% from 27.76% in 2024. The overall market for new passenger cars shrank by 15.6%, totaling 1.3 million vehicles sold in 2025. (MT/AFP, 01.13.26)
• Around 45% of more than 1,000 executive decrees signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2025 were never made public, according to an analysis by the exiled investigative outlet Vyorstka published Tuesday. MT/AFP, 01.13.26)
• Russia is preparing a new economics textbook for university students that aims to challenge what its authors call a “myth” that democracy drives economic growth and to revive the socialist economic theories of Soviet leader Josef Stalin, the head of a Kremlin-linked advisory body said. (MT/AFP, 01.13.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• The Moscow Times reports that Russian annual inflation fell to about 5.6% in 2025, down sharply from 9.5% in 2024 and below Central Bank forecasts, after nearly two years of key rates kept close to 20%. Growth, however, has stalled: Rosstat says Q3 2025 GDP was “close to zero,” while SIPRI estimates defense spending rose another 3% last year to roughly 7% of GDP, even as sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and a VAT hike are expected to push inflation back up in early 2026. (Moscow Times, 01.16.26)
• Russia’s State Duma Committee on Information Policy confirmed the slowdown of Telegram. Roskomnadzor slowed down Telegram due to insufficient response to demands to block illegal content, as announced by Andrey Svintsov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy. (Kommersant.ru, 01.16.26)
• A new Levada Center survey finds 73% of Russians say they feel like “free people” in Russian society, down from a record 80% in July 2024 but still near long‑term highs; 25% say they do not feel free, up 5 percentage points over the same period. Since the early 2000s, a majority has consistently reported feeling free, with dips around 2013 and 2021 before rebounding, suggesting that self‑perceived personal freedom remains high despite wartime crackdowns, censorship laws, and the “foreign agent” and “undesirable organization” designations increasingly used against independent media and civil society. (Levada Center, 01.16.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

• The New York Times, citing U.S. officials and visual evidence, reports that Venezuela’s Russian‑supplied air defenses—S‑300s, Buk‑M2s and some 5,000 SA‑24 Manpads—were largely inoperable or still in storage when the U.S. launched Operation Absolute Resolve to seize Nicolás Maduro. Radars were not activated, Buk launchers were destroyed in warehouses at La Guaira, Catia La Mar, La Carlota and Higuerote, and only a single Manpads launch is clearly documented, quickly suppressed by heavy U.S. counterfire—exposing years of corruption, poor maintenance and limited Russian sustainment. (New York Times, 01.12.26)
• The Kremlin published a meeting in which First Deputy PM Denis Manturov told Putin Russia’s manufacturing sector grew about 3% in 2025, with investment in manufacturing up 23% (roughly 5 trillion rubles) over three quarters and exports of “competitive products” rising 18% in the first 10 months, driven largely by defense‑industry output and sales to “friendly” countries, which now account for 80% of exports (vs. ~60% before 2022). He said the defense sector employs 3.8 million people—up 800,000 in three years—has tested over 1,000 new or modernized weapons at the front in 2025, and now has a record $70 billion arms‑export order book (up from a pre‑2022 peak of $55 billion). Manturov also claimed civilian goods now exceed 30% of output at defense plants, and that Russia’s satellite constellation grew from 288 to 300 spacecraft last year, with 17 space launches including an Angara‑A5 flight from Plesetsk. (Kremlin.ru, 01.12.26)
• Relatives of Russian servicemen in the Far East Primorye region have appealed to military prosecutors over alleged sexualized violence and extortion at a local army unit, the news outlet Ostorozhno Novosti reported on Monday. (MT/AFP, 01.12.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• ISW reports Russia is rapidly scaling production and sophistication of cheap strike drones, particularly the Molniya‑2 FPV platform, some variants of which now carry Starlink terminals. Ukrainian analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets says claims of 900,000 Molniya‑2s produced for $1+ billion in eight months are exaggerated but notes the drone’s strong price‑performance, EW resistance and, with Starlink, an extended range beyond 230 km—key to a growing Russian battlefield air‑interdiction campaign against Ukrainian roads, rail lines and bridges. (ISW, 01.13.26)

• Russian milbloggers report that the Defense Ministry has dismissed Lt. Gen. Sukhrab Akhmedov as deputy commander for coastal and ground forces of the Navy, blaming him for disastrous mechanized assaults near Dobropillya in December 2025 and earlier heavy losses by the 155th and 55th Naval Infantry and 810th Brigade in Vuhledar, Kreminna and northern Sumy. Akhmedov was previously removed from command of the 20th Combined Arms Army in 2024 after repeated high‑casualty failures. (ISW, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• Authorities in at least five Russian regions have sharply raised sign-on bonuses for contract soldiers after cutting them to the 400,000-ruble federal minimum in October due to budget strain, exiled outlet 7x7 reported. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on high salaries and bonuses to attract volunteers. In January, Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Mari El, and the Samara and Orenburg regions increased payments again, in some cases to several times the minimum. Chuvashia and Tatarstan now each offer 2.5 million rubles total. (MT/AFP, 01.14.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Dmitry Medvedev said 422,704 people signed military contracts in 2025, down about 6% from the ~450,000 recruited in 2024. New contractors are lured with minimum bonuses of $5,000—often several times higher in some regions—and high salaries and benefits, as the Kremlin seeks to avoid another unpopular mobilization while keeping roughly 700,000 troops at the front and replacing casualties that independent counts put at least 160,000 killed since 2022. (Moscow Times, 01.16.26)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian investigators have launched a criminal probe into the deaths of nine newborns at a maternity hospital in the Siberian city of Novokuznetsk, officials said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 01.13.26)
• Meduza reports that the Russian Embassy employee found dead in Nicosia on Jan. 8 was not a regular “diplomat” but Anton Panov, a 47‑year‑old cryptographer linked to Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). Panov had extensive high‑level contacts before his Cyprus posting. Phone billing data allegedly show calls with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, deputies Mikhail Bogdanov and adviser Bakhtiyar Hakimov, senior MFA finance‑department officials often linked to SVR/GRU cover, ambassadors to Moldova and Hungary, and ex‑Crimean senator Sergei Tsekov, wanted by Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, as well as a Lugansk informant known as “Sasha Sniper.” (The Insider, 01.15.26, Meduza / Istories, 01.14.26)
• In Cyprus, the body of the former head of the company “Uralkali” Vladislav Baumgartner was found. According to Fontanka and Greek media Philenews and Protagon, the final identification is expected. The body was found on the island’s southern shore, sources say. Baumgartner disappeared on Jan. 8. According to Philenews, the businessman was actively rock climbing and allegedly attempting to tackle another difficult route when strong winds were blowing on the island. (Mezha.net, 01.14.26)

• Russian captain of a vessel Vladimir Motin is on trial at London’s Old Bailey for gross negligence manslaughter over the death of Filipino seaman Mark Angelo Pernia after the container ship Solong collided at about 16 knots with the anchored tanker Stena Immaculate in the North Sea on March 10, 2025. Prosecutors say Motin had disabled the bridge alarm months earlier, failed to alter course despite radar showing the tanker 36 minutes in advance, and raised no warnings before impact, later WhatsApping his wife that he would be “guilty.” (Financial Times, 01.14.26)

• The former governor of the central Ryazan region has been charged with taking millions of rubles in bribes, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee told state media Wednesday. Nikolai Lyubimov, a prominent member of the ruling United Russia party, served as governor from 2017 to 2022. (MT/AFP, 01.14.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026

• Cyprus says an 8½‑minute online video accusing President Nikos Christodoulides and his circle of exceeding a €1 million campaign cap and trading EU sanctions relief for Russian oligarch money “bears all the hallmarks” of a Russian disinformation, or “kompromat,” operation. A Cyprus Security Services analysis likened it to a 2021 Russia‑linked campaign against France, Germany, the U.S. and Israel, noting the clip offers no tangible evidence but arrives four months before parliamentary elections and days after Cyprus assumed the EU presidency. (Washington Post, 01.10.26)

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• Warships from Iran and Russia have joined naval exercises being held off the coast of South Africa, risking a further deterioration of relations between Africa’s largest economy and the U.S.. Two ships from Iran—the destroyer Jamaran and the warship Mahdavai—have arrived at Cape Town, as has the Russian destroyer Stoikiy, the South African National Defence Force said in a statement late Friday. Ships from China, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates are also participating. The exercise comes as South Africa struggles to mend fences with the U.S., its second-biggest trading partner after China, amid criticism from the Trump administration about its close relations with Iran, Russia and China. (Bloomberg, 01.10.26)
• The Wall Street Journal says the World Bank now estimates the global economy grew 2.7% in 2025 (vs. 2.3% forecast in June) and will grow 2.6% in 2026, helped by stronger‑than‑expected U.S. growth (2.1% in 2025, 2.2% forecast for 2026) driven partly by “sharply higher investment in AI‑related equipment and structures.” China is seen at 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% this year, the eurozone at 1.4% in 2025, and India at 7.2%. But the Bank warns the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s, with many developing countries’ per‑capita incomes still below 2019 levels and 1.2 billion young people entering the workforce over the next decade. (Wall Street Journal, 01.13.26)
• The Washington Post reports that Charalambos Charalambous, director of the Cypriot presidential office and brother‑in‑law to President Nikos Christodoulides, resigned after an online video appeared to show him and others leveraging their access to the president to secure favors for investors in exchange for cash, including allegedly helping block EU sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Charalambous denies wrongdoing, calling the footage selectively edited, while Christodoulides said he accepted the resignation “with confidence” the allegations are false. (Washington Post, 01.13.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• The Russian government is advising its citizens to obtain new biometric passports as a growing number of countries within the European Union adopt the bloc’s digital entry system for non-EU citizens ahead of an implementation deadline set for this spring. (MT/AFP, 01.15.26)

Ukraine:

Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

• Russian, attacks on state energy company NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy are forcing it to buy more imported gas, prompting a warning from Fitch Ratings that it may need to restructure a note of about €690 million ($805 million). Billionaire Rinat Akhmetov’s business empire has also been hit, with strikes on a thermoelectric power plant and other facilities this week alone. DTEK Oil & Gas, which runs oil and gas fields near the front, held talks with investors last year on its ability to meet debts amid the conflict. Metinvest, Akhmetov’s steel and mining firm, lost its Pokrovske Coal unit to the Russian advance and is looking to extend the maturity on a $428 million bond coming due in April. (Bloomberg, 01.13.26)
• With around $3 billion of bonds coming due this year and Russian strikes on the nation’s infrastructure intensifying, Ukraine’s major corporate borrowers are increasingly looking to coupon delays and extensions to manage their debt loads. (Bloomberg, 01.13.26)
• The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project says Ukraine’s NABU and SAPO have completed their pretrial probe in the “Golden Mandarin” case, alleging a scheme that siphoned 54.179 million hryvnias (about $1.25 million) from the state budget via a manipulated case at the European Court of Human Rights. Investigators say the scam ran from 2013–2016, involved at least six suspects, and was organized by ex‑MP Heorhii Lohvynskyi, formally notified in July 2023 after his immunity ended. Zolotoy Mandarin Oil allegedly secured a “friendly settlement” on a claim that had already been paid, triggering a second state payout that was later laundered. (OCCRP, 01.13.26)

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• Former Ukrainian prime minister and Batkivshchyna party leader Yulia Tymoshenko has been served a notice of suspicion by Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which accuses her of orchestrating a systemic vote‑buying scheme in parliament. NABU says the “suspect” offered MPs regular cash payments in exchange for “loyal behaviour” on key votes, with video purportedly capturing her negotiating payments and coordinating via Signal; a raid on her party office showed stacks of $100 bills. Tymoshenko calls the case a “political” PR stunt and “categorically” rejects the charges. Kyiv court ordered former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to pay $760,000 bail to avoid detention on charges of offering bribes to lawmakers. If found guilty, she could face five to 10 years in prison (Financial Times, 01.14.26, RFE/RL, 01.,16.26)

• Ukraine’s parliament approved Mykhailo Fedorov, the former digital transformation minister, as defense minister and reassigned Denys Shmyhal to energy minister and first deputy prime minister. Zelenskyy said Fedorov will focus on fixing mobilization and recruitment, strengthening air defenses, auditing defense spending, and scaling up procurement of specialized drones to hit Russian forces deeper behind the front. (ISW, 01.14.26)

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

• Ukraine’s current account deficit has reached a record $30 billion over the 12 months to end‑November 2025, driven by a huge gap between imports and exports, National Bank governor Andriy Pyshnyy told Korrespondent.net. He said the imbalance would normally crush the currency, but is being covered by large-scale international financial aid, remittances and grants, allowing reserves to hit historic highs even as wartime spending, reconstruction and energy needs keep imports elevated. (Korrespondent.net, 01.15.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• The European Commission is drafting a radical “membership‑lite” overhaul of enlargement rules that would allow Ukraine to enter the EU rapidly—potentially as soon as 2027, as referenced in a draft U.S.-led 20‑point peace plan—but initially with limited voting rights and only gradual access to the single markets. (Financial Times, 01.16.26)
• Ukrainska Pravda says prosecutors and the SBU have charged the director of a Zaporizhzhia firm—now abroad—with embezzling nearly 60 million hryvnias by supplying over 40,000 substandard ballistic goggles and masks to the Armed Forces in 2024. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.16.26)
• Law enforcement officers exposed another scheme of theft of budget funds in defense procurement. According to the results of complex measures, the general director of the Zaporozhye company, who delivered a wholesale batch of defective equipment worth 60 million hryvnias to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was notified of suspicion in absentia. (Ukrainska Pravda, 01.16.26)
• The Odesa regional prosecutor’s office has confirmed the arrest of three district Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC) officials and one “representative of a public organization” acting as a “voluntary assistant” on bribery charges. Investigators say the four allegedly detained a forcibly mobilized man, drove him around Odesa in a minibus, and demanded $6,000 for his release before being caught. (Antikor, 01.16.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

• The United States said Wednesday it was suspending the processing of immigrant visas from 75 countries including Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan, President Donald Trump's latest move against foreigners seeking to come to America. 9 out of 15 former Soviet republics are on the list. Those not on the list include the Baltics (NATO members), Ukraine, but also Turkmenistan which already had issuance suspended. (RM, MT/AFP, 01.14.26)
• Armenia plans to extend the right to develop a regional transit corridor across its territory to the U.S. for 49 years as part of a process mediated by President Donald Trump to end years of conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan. (Bloomberg, 01.14.26)

Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

• Meduza says Moldovan President Maia Sandu told a British podcast she would vote for unification with Romania in any future referendum, arguing it is “increasingly difficult for a small country like Moldova to survive as a democracy” and resist Russia. Polls show only about one‑third of Moldovans back unification; a 2024 referendum on EU accession passed with 50.4% support, helped by diaspora votes, while Sandu’s party holds 55 of 101 parliamentary seats. (Meduza, 01.16.26)
• Prominent Russian dissident Leonid Volkov faces possible expulsion from Lithuania after a leaked private message in which he derided senior Ukrainian officials, including calling new presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov a “village spin doctor” and celebrating the (apparently faked) death of Russian neo‑Nazi fighter Denis Kapustin. Lithuanian leaders say his remarks “mirror the Kremlin’s narrative” and pose a national‑security concern, prompting a review of his residency and sending a chilling signal to other anti‑war Russians in the Baltics about how little ambiguity on Ukraine is tolerated. (New York Times, 01.16.26)

Quotable and notable:

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Sources: New York Times, 01.15.26, Washington Post, 01.16.26, RBC.ua, 01.16.26, RFE/RL, 01.16.26, New York Times, 01.15.26
2. Sources used: Reuters, 01.14.26, Korrespondent.net, 01.15.26, Bloomberg, 01.14.26, European Pravda, 01.16.26.
3. Sources for this item: RFE/RL, 01.16.26, Moscow Times, 01.16.26, Washington Post, 01.15.26, ISW, 01.14.26.
4. During a telephone conversation with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Masood Pezeshixian, Vladimir Putin informed about the Iranian leadership’s active efforts to normalize the situation in the country. It was noted that Russia and Iran consistently stand in solidarity in favor of the speedy de-escalation of tensions around Iran and in the region as a whole, for resolving emerging problems exclusively by political and diplomatic funds. The two presidents confirmed their intent to further strengthen the Russian-Iranian strategic partnerships and advance practical implementation of joint economic projects in various fields. (Kremlin.ru, 01.16.26)
5. Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They discussed the situation in the Middle East and the situation around Iran. Vladimir Putin presented fundamental approaches in favor of the intensification of political and diplomatic steps in the interest of stability and security in the region. He confirmed the readiness of the Russian side to continue to related mediation efforts, to promote constructive dialogue with the participation of all interested States. The two leaders agreed to the conditional continuation of contacts at various levels. (Kremlin.ru, 01.16.26)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI agents were used in production of this digest.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Lyudmila Kopal wearing warm clothes shines a flashlight as she stands by a Christmas tree during a blackout caused by Russia's regular air attacks against the country's energy in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. (AP Photo/Danyil Bashakov)