The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Dec. 3, 2025

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Dec. 2 update: RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 4–Dec. 2, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 247 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 154 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025). In the past week, Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, Russia has gained 23 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in a significant decrease from the previous week’s reported gain of 128 square miles.1 Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 41.5 square miles per week and 176 square miles per month. The recent territorial losses, which the Ukrainian side has acknowledged this week, include Kozatske, Balagan, Solodke and Zatyshche, according to the DeepState OSINT group. DeepState also acknowledged that the Russian side advanced in Pokrovsk this week, while Moscow insists this key town in the Donetsk region has already been captured by Russian forces. Territory remains a central sticking point, with Moscow demanding Kyiv cede all of Donbas, and Kyiv refusing to surrender land not yet conquered, according to WSJ.

Territorial Control (figures as of Dec. 2, 2025) 

Russian Advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia as of Dec. 2, 2025

 

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +28,885 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Illinois).
  • Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +45,510 square miles. About 20% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.)2
  • In the period of Nov. 4–Dec. 2, 2025: Russian forces gained 247 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase from the 154 square miles it gained in the previous four-week period of Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 176 square miles.
  • In past week (Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025): Russia gained 23 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about one Manhattan island)—a decrease from the previous week’s (Nov. 18–25, 2025) gain of 128 square miles.
  • In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions remained at 4 square miles this week (Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025), the same as last week.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–November 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

  • Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.3 84,568 missing.
  • Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a December 2024 estimate by Donald Trump.4 35,000 missing.5

Civilian fatalities

  • Russia: 7,175 killed.
  • Ukraine:  14,534, including 11,782 killed in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and 2,752 killed in Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia.

Military vehicles and equipment6

  • Russia: 23,551 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,665.  
    • Aircraft: 353.
    • Naval vessels: 22.7
  • Ukraine: 10,628 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,322.
    • Aircraft: 192.
    • Naval vessels: 35.8

Citizens displaced

  • Russia:
    • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
    • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • Ukraine: 9.5 million displaced Ukrainians, 22% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
    • Internally displaced: 3.8 million.
    • International refugees: 5.7 million.

Economic impact9

  • Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
    • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02357 U.S. dollars. -30% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 24.5%.

Infrastructure

  • Russia:  
    • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
    • As of early October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to Russian energy market data.
    • According to Reuters’ Nov. 13, 2025, estimate, however, Russia's oil processing has actually fallen just 3% this year despite Ukraine's drone attacks.
    • Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign targeting Russia's oil and gas production facilities has have cost Russia 10% of its refining capacity, according to industry experts cited by RFE/RL in November 2025.
  • Ukraine:  
    • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.10
    • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
    • Some 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation was destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Some 50% of all of Ukraine’s hydropower installations were damaged and 40% destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Ukraine's energy infrastructure was operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
    • In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter of 2025-2026.
    • Ukraine's overall electricity consumption has fallen by around 30% since the launch of the Russian invasion, according to an October 2025 estimate.

Popular support

  • Russia: 61% support peace negotiations.
  • Ukraine: 74% support negotiated peace (along the front line as of mid-September 2025 and backed by Western security guarantees).

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

  • Ammunition supply
  • Foreign military aid
  • Force generation
  • Military leadership
  • Training
  • Morale
  • Control of strategic locations
  • Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

 

Endnotes

  1. Russia’s gain of 128 square miles over the week of Nov. 18–25, 2025, as indicated by ISW data, appeared to be unusually high, representing the largest weekly gain for Russia since the 105 square miles it gained the week of July 22–29, 2025. ISW staff explained the change in a Nov. 26 e-mail to RM as caused by a recalibration of the existing frontline to more accurately match reports by Ukrainian military sources and local media, indicating that Russian forces have advanced further than what has been observed through open-source visual means. This recalibration may partially explain why RM’s measurements using ISW data showed that Russia’s gains over the past month (Oct. 28–Nov. 25, 2025) were 180 square miles, compared to 89 square miles over the previous four-week period. RM’s latest calculation—23 square miles gained from Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, returns closer to the baseline observed since Jan. 1, 2025: across the entire front, Russia has gained an average 41.5 square miles per week. In comparison, a website associated with Ukraine’s open-source intelligence group DeepState calculated total gains by Russia during the Nov. 18–25 period at 49 square miles (128 square kilometers), up from 39 square miles the previous week. Meanwhile, The Economist reported on Nov. 26, 2025, Russia’s gains over the past 30 days at 211 square miles (547 square kilometers), giving Russia control over 19.9% of Ukraine’s territory.
  2. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Dec. 2, 2025, Russian forces occupied 115,749 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,690 square miles), which constituted 19.17% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio.
  3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. Almost 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
    4. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
    5. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
    6. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
    7. Some 1 million in casualties, including 240,000 KIAs, according to British spy chief Richard Moore’s September 2025 estimate.
    8. Some 1,118,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense’s October 2025 estimate.
  4. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
    3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    4. 100,000 killed, according to Zelenskyy’s April 2025 estimate.
    5. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
  5. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, according to Ukrainian media.
  6. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.  
  7. Oryx is not updating losses of Russian warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
  8. Oryx is not updating losses of Ukrainian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. Thus, this number excludes the Ukrainian Navy's reconnaissance ship, Simferopol, which was sunken by a Russian naval drone strike in the Danube River estuary on Aug. 28, 2025.
  9. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
  10. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff.

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