3 Things to Know

1. The draft U.S.–Russia peace proposal for Ukraine, which was leaked in its entirety this week, calls for sweeping concessions from Ukraine, setting off alarms both in Ukraine and in European countries allied with Kyiv.¹ The plan calls for Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to be recognized as ‘de facto Russian,’ including by the U.S., according to Axios. In addition, Kyiv’s forces would withdraw from parts of Donetsk that Russia doesn’t occupy, and that area would become a “neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation,” according to the plan. The plan, which has been reportedly developed by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and delivered to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, also calls for freezing control lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. According to the plan, Ukraine would permanently renounce NATO membership and NATO would not station troops on Ukrainian soil. The proposal also caps Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000, mandates elections within 100 days of peace and grants full wartime amnesty. Russia would also gain staged sanctions relief, a path back to the G-8 and expanded U.S.–Russia economic cooperation, including in energy, AI and Arctic mining. In return, Ukraine would receive access to reconstruction financing, preferential EU-market entry, use of $100 billion in frozen Russian assets and, last but not least, a U.S. security assurance. It remains unclear, however, what this guarantee would entail. According to Axios, it would be a “security assurance modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, adapted to the circumstances of this conflict and the interests of the United States and its European partners,” in what one U.S. official described as a “big win” for Zelenskyy. According to the Wall Street Journal, however, in addition to the 28-point plan, a separate draft U.S. document, which lays out security guarantees, doesn’t commit the U.S. to provide direct military assistance. The Trump administration expects Zelenskyy to sign off on the plan by Thanksgiving on Nov. 27, reportedly threatening to cut intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries to Ukraine if Kyiv does not meet the deadline, which Trump described on Nov. 21 as “appropriate.” (It remains unclear how firm the deadline is, given that Witkoff apparently assured Germany’s top diplomat Johann Wadephul that "If people don't like certain parts of the plan, they should let us know and we will try to find a compromise.")
   1. Keeping U.S. leverage in mind and having learned from his confrontation with Trump and JD Vance in the White House earlier this year, Zelenskyy didn’t reject the plan outright, but promised Driscoll to work on its points, having agreed with this U.S. defense official on an “aggressive timetable” for signing the plan. However, it is rather unlikely that Zelenskyy will actually endorse the plan less than a week from now, given that the plan has been viewed as a “capitulation” both in Ukraine and in Europe.* This view could be one reason why top European allies lined up with Zelenskyy on Nov. 21 in rejecting some of the key elements of the proposal, according to Bloomberg. The leaders of France, Germany and the U.K. agreed with Zelenskyy on a call today that Ukraine’s armed forces must remain capable of defending its sovereignty and that the current line of contact should be the starting point for any peace talks, this news agency reported. As for the Russian reaction, Vladimir Putin weighed in on the plan on Nov. 21, saying it could become “the basis for a final peace settlement,” threatening further advances into Ukraine if its leadership refuses to discuss Trump’s peace proposal.

2. Russian forces have continued pushing into the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk in the past week, according to combat maps by DeepState. ISW estimates that Moscow is prioritizing the capture of Pokrovsk over completing a wider encirclement. The New York Times reports Ukrainian lines around Pokrovsk are thinning, with gaps as wide as 600 yards, with “most analysts expecting the city to fall soon.” 

3. In the past four weeks (Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025), Russia forces gained 169 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 128 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), according to the Nov. 19, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past week, Nov. 11–18, 2025, Russia has gained 37 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, a decrease from the previous week’s gain of 59 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 169 square miles, according to the card. The past week has seen Russia launch over 1,000 drones at Ukraine, killing 25 people in Ternopil alone.

NB: Next week’s Russia in Review will appear on Tuesday, Nov. 25, instead of Friday, Nov. 28, because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine’s three functioning nuclear power plants were forced to reduce output after Russian drone and missile attacks damaged nearby energy infrastructure and transmission lines; four of nine reactors lowered production, further destabilizing Ukraine’s power system. (Korrespondent.net, 11.20.25)
• Russia has delivered key testing equipment for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) in southern France—a major milestone for this global fusion project. The equipment will facilitate critical vacuum, thermal, and functional tests of core diagnostic components, with Russia responsible for building all four such test stands, reflecting its technological expertise in the initiative. (Rosatom, 11.17.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi marked the installation of the first reactor at Egypt’s Russian-built El Dabaa nuclear power plant, a major joint project expected to provide 10% of Egypt’s electricity when completed. The $30 billion Rosatom-led plant will have four reactors totaling 4.8 GW capacity, with over half of construction handled by Egyptian firms and more than 100 Egyptian students receiving specialized nuclear training. The plant is projected to produce up to 37 billion kWh of electricity annually once operational. (Moscow Times, 11.19.25)
• Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom and Egypt’s Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy have signed a comprehensive cooperation program, aimed at strengthening strategic partnership and expanding economic and technical collaboration. The agreement, signed by Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev and Egyptian energy minister Mahmoud Esmat in the presence of Egypt’s prime minister, focuses on experience sharing, scientific-technical cooperation, and long-term joint projects in Egypt’s key economic sectors. (Rosatom, 11.20.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia is increasingly relying on North Korean labor and military personnel to offset shortages, with plans for 12,000 North Korean workers to join drone factories in Tatarstan and thousands of North Korean troops already deployed to Russia for support roles, demining and security duties. (ISW, 11.14.25)
• North Korea continues to ship artillery shells to Russia, although at reduced levels in 2025, and is now reportedly mass producing FPV and strike drones, possibly for Russian use. Up to 12,000 North Korean workers are set to join drone factories in Russia's Tatarstan region. (ISW, 11.15.25)
• A joint investigation by Istories, OCCRP and the Open Source Centre found that in 2024, Russia covertly supplied North Korea with over 1.5 million barrels of petroleum products—triple the annual U.N. quota for Pyongyang. The oil was shipped via Russia’s Far East port of Vostochny using secret payment channels set up by Moscow and Pyongyang. These shipments ramped up after Russia vetoed a U.N. panel monitoring North Korea sanctions in March 2024. Moscow officially claims to comply with sanctions, but evidence points to large-scale illicit deliveries. (Istories, 11.20.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian scientists and nuclear experts made a second covert visit to Russia last year, in what the U.S. claims has been a push to obtain sensitive technologies with potential nuclear weapons applications. Jim Lamson, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a former CIA analyst, said the evidence suggested Tehran’s defense-linked scientists had last year been “seeking laser technology and expertise that could help them validate a nuclear weapon design without conducting a nuclear explosive test.” (Financial Times, 11.19.25)
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told The Economist that, amid deteriorating relations with the West and recent military setbacks, Iran is developing its “strategic partnership” with Russia. (Economist, 11.21.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia has handed over to Ukraine the bodies of 1,000 people it claims are Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war, according to Ukraine’s coordination center on POW affairs. Ukrainian authorities, with help from the Red Cross, will conduct forensic tests to identify the remains. Such exchanges have occurred repeatedly in recent months, but Ukraine says some bodies are deliberately damaged, complicating identification. (Meduza, 11.20.25)Top of Form
• Russian paramilitary group Rusich publicly admitted to executing three Ukrainian POWs near Pokrovsk. ISW assesses these war crimes are part of a pattern of explicit or tacit endorsement by the Russian military command. (ISW, 11.15.25)
• Russian military commanders continue to order Russian forces to commit war crimes on the battlefield. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported on Nov. 18 that elements of the Russian 1st Motorized Battalion of the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) used two adults and one child as human shields during an assault on the northeastern outskirts of Pokrovsk on Nov. 10. (ISW, 11.18.25)
• Pope Leo XIV met with a Ukrainian delegation, including officials and victims of Russia’s war, to discuss repatriation of Ukrainian children and other civilians held in Russia. Ukraine asked the Vatican to formalize its role as an intermediary with Moscow to help secure returns, highlighting that only about 1,600 children have been repatriated since 2022. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar also participated in the talks, urging stronger Vatican action. (Washington Post, 11.21.25)
• Ukrainians are bracing for an especially harsh winter as Russian strikes have reduced power generation to less than half of prewar levels. Many in eastern and northern Ukraine are preparing for heating and electricity outages, with families in Kyiv struggling to afford emergency power amid soaring costs and scarce resources. (RFE/RL, 11.16.25)
• Ukraine signed a key deal with Greece for winter gas imports after Russian strikes disabled up to 60% of domestic production. Greek energy firm DEPA will supply U.S. LNG to Ukraine via the “vertical corridor” route through Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova. The agreement aims to bolster Ukraine’s energy security as the country faces rolling blackouts and heating shortages. (Financial Times, 11.16.25)
• The U.S. and Russia have held discussions about a new prisoner exchange, according to Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev and confirmed by a U.S. official, though no agreement is imminent. A swap could help improve relations despite ongoing tensions over Ukraine and is seen as a Trump administration priority, with at least eight Americans still imprisoned in Russia. No specific names were disclosed, but recent swaps have included high-profile detainees such as journalist Evan Gershkovich and basketball player Brittney Griner. (Axios, 11.18.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past four weeks (Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025), Russia forces gained 169 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 128 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025). In the past week, Nov. 11–18, 2025, Russia has gained 37 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, a decrease from the previous week’s gain of 59 square miles according to the Nov. 19, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 169 square miles. (RM, 11.21.25)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

• On Nov. 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, near Zlahoda, Zelenyi Hai and Petropavlivka. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Russia launched a major missile and drone barrage on Kyiv, killing six and injuring at least 35, including a pregnant woman. The overnight attack involved at least 430 drones and 18 missiles, hitting apartment buildings and causing fires. The strike, the largest in weeks, also targeted Kharkiv and Odesa and continued Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. (Wall Street Journal, 11.14.25)
• The Russian military is currently prioritizing the capture of Pokrovsk itself over trying to fully encircle the larger Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Slow progress by Russian units from the north, ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, and continued Ukrainian presence in Pokrovsk are complicating Russian efforts. ISW notes Russia could shift focus back to encirclement at any time. (ISW, 11.14.25)
• Ukraine is ramping up domestic production of “Octopus” interceptor drones and has begun receiving the AI-driven “drone wall” defense system from Europe, which can autonomously intercept Russian drones and offers valuable lessons for NATO air defense innovation. (ISW, 11.14.25)

Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025

• On Nov. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces drove the Russian forces back Shakhove. The Russian forces advanced in Volodymyrivka and near Sofiyivka. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Ukraine claimed responsibility for striking Rosneft’s Ryazan oil refinery—one of Russia’s largest—for the second time in a month, causing explosions and a fire as part of a campaign to hinder Russia’s air capabilities. Ukraine also reported attacks on Novorossiysk port and Saratov refinery, while shooting down 91 of 135 Russian drones and two of three Kinzhal missiles overnight. (Bloomberg, 11.15.25)
• After years of targeting Ukraine’s power grid, Russia is now attacking gas infrastructure—Ukraine’s main source of heat for 80% of households—threatening to leave millions in the cold this winter. Strikes have destroyed up to 60% of production capacity at times, forcing Ukraine to urgently boost gas imports and warn residents to conserve. Officials fear that if these attacks persist, even stored gas can't be effectively distributed, raising the risk of severe heating shortages as winter deepens. (New York Times, 11.15.25)
• Russian forces exploited poor weather and used pontoon bridges to advance near Novopavlivka, entering the village several times with armored vehicles and infantry under heavy fog. Ukrainian defenses responded with tank and IFV strikes but faced delays in detection. (ISW, 11.15.25)
• Russia is ramping up large-scale production of glide bombs (up to 120,000 in 2025) and Shahed-type drones (up to 30,000), enabling daily massive air interdiction campaigns across several fronts and placing significant strain on Ukraine's air defenses. (ISW, 11.15.25)

Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025

• On Nov. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampil, Novomarkove, Rivnopil and Novouspenske. (RM, 11.21.25)
• The Russian military claimed to have captured Rivnopillia and Mala Tokmachka in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, making slow but steady gains against outnumbered Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are also pressing around Pokrovsk in the east. (Moscow Times/AFP, 11.16.25)
• Ukraine claimed a drone strike on Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region, part of an ongoing campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea oil port resumed operations after a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian cruise missile attack. Ukraine also reported new damage to the major Ryazan refinery from earlier strikes. (Bloomberg, 11.16.25)
• Russian forces are actively trying to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by severing vital ground lines of communication north of Pokrovsk. Recent Russian infiltration efforts have shifted from larger mechanized assaults to small fireteam operations, but heavy Ukrainian resistance and losses make it unclear if these tactics have gained a foothold. (ISW, 11.16.25)
• The situation around Hulyaipole remains critical, as Russian advances from the northeast threaten to isolate the town by targeting major Ukrainian supply routes. Geolocated evidence confirms Russian forces have seized Rivnopillya and advanced near Zatyshshya, coming within 4–8 km of Hulyaipole, with Russian infiltration groups now able to penetrate up to 5 km past Ukrainian front lines. (ISW, 11.16.25)
• Ukrainian forces report success in holding and defending Kupyansk, having allegedly cut off Russian troops in the town’s north from logistics. Russian official claims of controlling half the city or encircling Ukrainian battalions are considered exaggerated, and Ukraine appears to be pushing Russian advances back for the first time at this scale in recent years. (ISW, 11.16.25)

Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

• On Nov. 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampil, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Volodymyrivka and Sofiyivka. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Russian forces are attempting to both fix Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk and encircle the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket from the west, but their efforts are hampered by split objectives and difficulty concentrating forces. Elements of the 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies are trying to close the encirclement from multiple directions, with the 51st CAA stretched between attacks north of Pokrovsk and reducing the pocket, while also countering Ukrainian attacks near Dobropillya. This multi-directional focus is slowing Russian advances and limiting operational gains. (ISW, 11.17.25)
• Ukraine claimed a strike on Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara region—part of its ongoing campaign against Russian oil infrastructure—while Russia’s Novorossiysk Black Sea oil port resumed operations after a two-day suspension caused by a Ukrainian cruise missile attack. Ukraine also reported more damage from a previous strike on the Ryazan refinery. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)
• About half a million people in Russian-occupied Donetsk lost power after overnight Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the regional electrical grid, leaving Donetsk, Makiivka, Horlivka and Yasynuvata without electricity. Emergency crews have since restored service to parts of the region, while Russian authorities report downing 36 Ukrainian drones overnight. (Moscow Times/AFP, 11.17.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

• On Nov. 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Novospaske, Shcherbynivka, near Vesele, Vysoke and Zatyshche. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Ukrainian strikes for a second consecutive night have left nearly two-thirds of customers in occupied Donetsk without electricity, according to Kremlin-backed officials, who report the attacks targeted Zuivska and Starovesheve power stations and forced water and heating facilities offline. Over 376,000 customers, 14 healthcare facilities, and nearly 50 schools have been affected, with rolling blackouts and heating shortages reported as temperatures drop. Ukraine has not commented on the attacks. (Moscow Times, 11.18.25)
• Geolocated footage published on Nov. 18 and reportedly filmed on Nov. 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within northeastern Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Airborne Assault Forces reported on Nov. 18 that Russian forces are increasingly attempting to infiltrate into Myrnohrad from the side of Krasnyi Lyman (north of Myrnohrad) — indicating that Russian forces operating north of Myrnohrad are not focused on advancing westward to close the encirclement but are attempting to attack southward directly into Myrnohrad. (ISW, 11.18.25)
• Russian forces are trying to employ their new offensive template in the Siversk and Slovyansk-Lyman directions to set conditions for an advance on Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the northeast and east. Russian forces have been employing a new operational template that relies on a combination of a prolonged battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, tactical interdiction efforts, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults. (ISW, 11.18.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

• On Nov. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Vesele and advanced near Zatyshya and Borivska Andriivka. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Russian drone and missile strikes on the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil killed at least 25 people, including three children, and injured at least 73 more overnight, with emergency services warning that others may still be trapped under the rubble of two heavily damaged apartment buildings. The attack also caused a spike in air pollution levels in the city, while other regions including Lviv and Kharkiv came under overnight strikes, with more than 40 people injured in Kharkiv. (Meduza, 11.19.25)
• Russian missile and drone strikes on the night of Nov. 18–19 killed at least 26 civilians and wounded at least 139 across Ukraine, with the heaviest toll in Ternopil, where a Kh-101 cruise missile hit a residential building. Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting most of the 40 cruise missiles and 476 drones launched, but several still struck civilian and energy infrastructure in multiple regions, causing emergency blackouts. At least 26 people remain missing in Ternopil. (ISW, 11.19.25)
• Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 20 people in Ternopil and hit infrastructure across Ukraine as Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey aiming to restart stalled peace talks. The attacks—including a barrage of 470 drones and 48 missiles—come amid Ukrainian battlefield setbacks and a political scandal at home. (New York Times, 11.19.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed that Ukraine launched its first ATACMS long-range missile attack on the city of Voronezh on Nov. 18, firing four U.S.-supplied missiles, all of which Russia claims were intercepted. Debris from the interception reportedly damaged the roofs of a gerontology center, an orphanage, and a private home, but there were no civilian casualties. The ministry also claimed to have located and destroyed two Ukrainian MLRS launchers and their crews in Kharkiv region following the strike. (Meduza, 11.19.25)
• Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, one of Russia’s largest, suspended crude processing after a Ukrainian drone strike on Nov. 15, shutting down its main distillation unit (48% of capacity) and halting all product sales until at least December. The facility, which processed 13.1 million tons of crude in 2024 (4.9% of Russia’s total), has faced repeated attacks this year amid Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. (Reuters, 11.19.25)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

• On Nov. 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, Stepnohirsk, near Volodymyrivka and Shakhove. (RM, 11.21.25)
• Russian forces are advancing in small units into the partially surrounded city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, with analysts expecting the city to fall soon. Ukraine’s army is under strain and running short of soldiers, with gaps over 600 yards wide on some parts of the front. (New York Times, 11.20.25)
• Russian forces continued to advance in the Hulyaipole direction using a new offensive approach that combines prolonged air interdiction campaigns, infiltration, and massed small-group assaults, aiming to isolate and capture Hulyaipole. Geolocated footage indicates Russians recently seized Vesele (east of Hulyaipole), with elements of the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment credited for the gain. Russian troops are exploiting fog and terrain to avoid Ukrainian drones, launching attacks under conditions that limit Ukrainian reconnaissance and response. (ISW, 11.20.25)
• Russian invasion forces have broken through Ukraine’s long-held defensive line in Donetsk oblast, capturing the villages of Vyimka and Ivano-Darivka and entering Siversk from the south, reportedly seizing 20% of the town. It took Russian troops 40 months to advance these 9 kilometers. (Julian Röpcke on X, 11.20.25)
• Putin reportedly visited a command post of Russia’s “Zapad” military grouping, where he was briefed by Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov on ongoing fighting in Donetsk and claimed control over Kupiansk. Ukrainian officials say fighting continues around Kupiansk and the city has not been taken. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.20.25)
• Putin, at a “Zapad” military command post, claimed Russian forces are fighting inside Kostyantynivka (Donetsk) and have allegedly captured Kupiansk. Chief of Staff Gerasimov reported Russian troops control much of Volchansk, Krasnoarmiysk, and are advancing near Siversk. Russian command claimed they’ve blocked 15 Ukrainian battalions near Kupiansk and seized multiple settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, while criticizing Ukraine’s leadership as corrupt and urging Ukrainian soldiers to surrender. (Kommersant, 11.20.25)
• Despite intensified Russian attacks on rail infrastructure, Ukraine’s state railway continues to operate, adapting by shifting schedules, moving to diesel locomotives, and adding safety protocols for workers. However, increased strikes—over 400 since August—have forced temporary closure of routes to frontline cities like Kramatorsk, reflecting both system resilience and the westward retreat of the railway’s operational “end of the line.” (Financial Times, 11.20.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• Russian forces have advanced in the Pokrovsk area of Donetsk Oblast as well as near several other settlements, including Stepnohorske in Zaporizhzhia and close to Vladimirovka and Shakhmatne in Donetsk, according to the DeepState analytics project. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.21.25)
• Overnight, Russia launched 115 attack drones—including “Shahed,” “Gerbera” and other types—against Ukraine from various directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 95 drones, but 19 struck targets in 12 locations and debris from others fell on four more. Civilian infrastructure and homes, especially in Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Odesa regions, suffered the most. Additionally, a Russian bomb strike on Zaporizhzhia killed at least five people and caused widespread damage. (RBC.ua, 11.21.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Ukraine has signed a 10-year agreement with France to acquire 100 Rafale fighter jets, along with new air-defense systems, bombs, and drones, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris amid intensified Russian attacks. The deal—separate from current French military stocks—aims to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense as the war with Russia deepens. Meanwhile, the Kremlin indicated it is eager for a new summit between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss ending the conflict, following an unproductive meeting in Alaska in August; however, the U.S. remains skeptical that Russia is ready for a peace deal. (RFE/RL, 11.18.25)
• Ukraine continues to collaborate with its European partners on the joint production of interceptor drones. Ukrainian state-owned defense enterprise manager Ukroboronprom CEO Herman Smetanin announced on Nov. 18 that Ukroboronprom and Czech aviation parts supplier Air Team signed an agreement on the joint development and production of interceptor drones. (ISW, 11.18.25)
• The U.K. has identified which military units it would send to Ukraine after a series of reconnaissance visits in the country, ensuring it would be ready to swiftly deploy troops if the latest effort to revive peace talks succeeds. (Bloomberg, 11.20.25)
• Since the start of the full-scale war, the EU has spent more on Russian energy imports (€201 billion) than on aid to Ukraine (€187 billion), Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said. Including all Russian imports, the total reaches €312 billion—€124 billion more than total support for Ukraine. While EU reliance on Russian energy has declined, imports still exceeded aid as of 2024. Stenergard called for increasing support for Ukraine and using frozen Russian assets to help Kyiv. (Istories, 11.20.25)
• The U.K. has been preparing to deploy military units to Ukraine as part of a coalition of 30 countries, led by Britain and France, in support of a potential peace settlement. British plans include rapid deployment capability, training Ukrainian forces on Ukrainian soil, and positioning headquarters away from the front lines. The plan also involves coordinating with Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria to ensure secure Black Sea shipping and port demining. Over £100 million is allocated for initial deployment if a ceasefire agreement is reached. (RBC.ua, 11.21.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025

• The EU’s plan to fund up to $213 billion in loans for Ukraine using frozen Russian central bank assets faces strong resistance from Belgium, which fears legal, political, and financial risks if assets must be returned to Russia. The Belgian government demands guarantees from other EU nations and is pressing for broader G-7 participation to reduce risk, as without a deal Ukraine could run out of cash by spring. (Wall Street Journal, 11.15.25)

Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

• Trump signaled support for Senate legislation that would sanction countries, like China and India, that continue business with Russia—including up to 500% tariffs on imports from nations buying Russian energy and not supporting Ukraine. The bill aims to further squeeze Moscow’s funding amid the ongoing war and could also target Iran. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)
• The EU has proposed a €90 billion grant or an EU-backed loan for Ukraine if the preferred plan—to use frozen Russian assets as loan collateral—remains blocked by Belgium. Ukraine urgently needs financial support, with military costs alone estimated at over €50 billion in 2026. EU leaders are weighing grants, joint debt, or innovating with Russian asset-backed loans to avert shortfalls for Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)
• The EU has warned that if member states cannot agree to use frozen Russian central bank assets to fund a €140bn ($146.56bn) fiscal and military needs for the next two years, according to a letter from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. Belgium, which holds most of the assets at Euroclear ($205.2bn), has blocked the proposal over legal and financial risks, prompting discussions on expanding the scheme and sharing litigation risks among EU members. Brussels acknowledged unresolved risks, including the possible perception of asset confiscation affecting financial markets, and suggested more countries replicate the plan to reduce those concerns. Von der Leyen expressed openness to expanding the scheme to Russian sovereign assets held elsewhere in Europe ($226.8bn in total). (Financial Times, 11.17.25)
• The U.S. Department of the Treasury has sanctioned two Ukrainian companies accused of helping Iran obtain critical components for tactical unmanned aerial systems (UAS) used by Russia against Ukraine. Kharkiv-based GK Imperativ and Kyiv- and Kharkiv-based Ekofera acted as fronts for Iranian agents supplying parts to Tehran’s state-owned Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company (HESA). HESA produces the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 . (Defense Post, 11.17.25) Remarkable that Ukrainian companies would either fail to conduct due diligence or ignore need for it to supply components for drones which Russia has both imported and produced to use against Ukraine.

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

• U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said the EU should adopt a “more aggressive” stance toward Russia and press ahead with using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort, calling it vital for Kyiv’s survival and long-term financing. Whitaker also praised Germany’s increased defense spending and warned that, while Russia’s military is a “paper tiger,” Moscow remains unpredictable and could threaten NATO territory. EU plans to use immobilized Russian assets face resistance from Belgium and legal uncertainties, with alternative options involving major new grants or joint debt to support Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 11.18.25)
• European Union officials have spent months focused on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to make a loan to Ukraine that could help Kyiv fight the next phase of the war. It is increasingly clear that the bloc has nothing but bad alternatives should that fail. The loan plan, through which the European Union would use Russia's central bank assets in Belgium to funnel 140 billion euros, or about $160 billion, to Ukraine, was expected to move forward at the bloc's political meeting last month. Instead, in a last-minute surprise, Belgium blocked it. (New York Times, 11.18.25)
• Austrian optics maker Swarovski Optik has continued supplying high-end rifle scopes to Russia during the Ukraine war, importing at least 90 scopes since 2022—mainly through intermediaries in the UAE—despite Austria’s neutrality and Western sanctions. While officially labeled for hunting or sport, analysts say these scopes are suitable for military and special forces use, with most sales believed to end up with elite Russian units like the FSB and GRU. Russian importers have also bypassed sanctions to bring in scopes from other Western brands, using dealers in Turkey, Canada and the UAE. (iStories, 11.18.25)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

• The EU has imposed sanctions on 10 Russian officials and judges linked to human rights abuses and political repression, including leaders of Taganrog’s pre-trial detention center, where journalist Viktoria Roshchina died and at least 15 other detainees, including Ukrainian prisoners, were reportedly tortured and killed. Also sanctioned is Moscow judge Timur Vakhrameev, accused of political persecution against journalists and activists using controversial Russian laws. (Zona Media, 11.20.25)
• The U.S., U.K. and Australia have imposed sanctions on St. Petersburg-based Media Land and its top management, accusing the company of providing “bulletproof hosting” services to cybercriminals. The measures target seven companies and five individuals, including Media Land CEO Alexander Volosovik. Media Land allegedly enabled hosting for phishing and credit card theft sites. Sanctions also cover a data center in Kirishi and the company Hypercore, linked to previous attempts to evade restrictions. (Zona Media, 11.19.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) has filed a discharge petition to force a House vote on bipartisan “crushing” sanctions against Russia and countries supporting its war effort, in response to the release of a U.S. peace proposal criticized for favoring Moscow. The sanctions bill, already with substantial support, would impose steep tariffs, banking restrictions and asset freezes if Russia refuses real peace. Trump, previously opposed, now says he’s okay with the vote. (The Hill, 11.21.25)
• Russians have adapted to being cut off from SWIFT and traditional payment systems by using a range of alternative methods such as intermediaries, fintech apps, QR codes, and cryptocurrency. Individuals and businesses now rely on schemes like sending rubles to Armenia or Kazakhstan, then converting and transferring funds abroad, with payment agents shaping complex transfer chains. Russia’s domestic Mir payment system dominates at home, while international transactions are routed through partner banks and crypto—with costs and delays but continuing despite sanctions. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• To transfer money out of Russia, Natalia, a consultant with a business in Germany, takes a roundabout route. She first sends rubles from the sanctioned T-Bank in Russia to Armenia, for which she only needs a phone number on the receiving side. The transaction only takes minutes, and then she is able to wire the funds in euros to a European bank account.  (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz warned that the U.S. is ready to impose further economic sanctions on Russia and continue supplying weapons to Ukraine if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire and start genuine negotiations. Waltz said the U.S. has proposed generous terms, including sanctions relief, and emphasized diplomacy as the only path to peace. He also called on all countries to stop buying Russian energy and urged return of abducted Ukrainian children. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.21.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• A draft U.S.–Russia peace proposal for Ukraine—developed by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff with Russian sovereign-wealth chief Kirill Dmitriev and endorsed by Trump—has been delivered to Zelenskyy, setting off urgent consultations among Kyiv’s European partners. The plan calls for sweeping concessions required from Ukraine, including recognizing Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as de facto Russian. It also calls for freezing control lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and permanently renouncing NATO membership. Kyiv’s forces would withdraw from parts of Donetsk that Russia doesn’t occupy and that area would become a “neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation.” The proposal also caps Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000, mandates elections within 100 days and grants full wartime amnesty. In return, Ukraine would receive a U.S. security guarantee, access to reconstruction financing, preferential EU-market entry and partial use of frozen Russian assets. Russia would gain staged sanctions relief, a path back to the G-8 and expanded U.S.–Russia economic cooperation, including in energy, AI and Arctic mining. (RM, using reports in Western, Ukrainian and Russian media, 11.21.25) 

• See details and reactions below. Also see the purported full texts of the plan here (WSJ) and here (FT). 

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

Details

• The Trump administration has been secretly drafting a Ukraine peace plan in consultation with Russia, led by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who has coordinated extensively with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. A senior White House official said they expected a framework to be agreed by all parties by the end of the month, possibly as soon as this week. Witkoff was expected to meet Zelenskyy or his chief of staff in Turkey but postponed the trip, instead meeting Ukrainian national security adviser Rustem Umerov in Miami. White House Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also involved in the meetings. Sources said Witkoff pressed Kyiv to accept the plan. It was U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George whom the White House chose to deliver the plan to Zelenskyy during an unannounced visit. Driscoll is planning to meet with Russian officials at a later date.² (Axios, 11.19.25, Meduza, 11.18,25,Politico, 11.19.25, Financial Times, 11.19.25, Politico, 11.18.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.19.25. Axios, 11.19.25, Reuters, 11.20.25)³
  • Russian envoy Dmitriev told Axios the basic idea was to take the principles Trump and Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal "to address the Ukraine conflict, but also how to restore U.S.-Russia ties [and] address Russia's security concerns." Dmitriev said this effort was entirely unrelated to the U.K.-led push to draft a Gaza-style peace plan for Ukraine. (Axios, 11.19.25, Meduza, 11.18.25, Politico, 11.19.25)

Reactions

• Trump did not comment on the deal, but revealed on Nov. 19 that he had recently told Putin: “Let me settle your freaking war.” (Daily Telegraph, 11.20.25)
• U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg plans to leave his post in January, ending his 360-day term. (Reuters, 11.19.25)
• The Kremlin said its stance on a Ukraine peace deal is unchanged despite reports of secret U.S.–Russia back‑channel talks, insisting any settlement must recognize Russian control of occupied territories, enforce Ukrainian neutrality, restrict Kyiv’s military and lift Western sanctions. Moscow declined to confirm an Axios‑reported 28‑point framework allegedly discussed by Russian and American envoys. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Nov. 19 that “there has been nothing new in addition to what was discussed in Anchorage,” referring to the August Trump‑Putin meeting in Alaska, when asked about the Axios report of a new draft plan. (Moscow Times, 11.19.25, New York Times, 11.19.25)
• Oil prices fell sharply on reports of the proposal, as traders bet that peace talks would reduce oil supply risks linked to the announcement last month of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. Brent crude prices fell almost 3% to $63.17 during morning trading in New York, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, traded to a low of $58.77. (Financial Times, 11.19.25)
• ISW assesses that the reported U.S.-Russia draft peace plan would force Ukraine to give up strategic defensive territory in Donetsk oblast and freeze the front lines, heavily favoring Russia and depriving Ukraine of vital defensive positions like the “Fortress Belt.” ISW warns this would allow Russia to regroup and launch new offensives from stronger positions, with no real security guarantees for Ukraine. The plan closely echoes Russia’s maximalist 2022 demands, suggesting Moscow’s goals and negotiating stance remain unchanged. (ISW, 11.19.25)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Details

• Zelenskyy said after talks with a top U.S. Army official on Nov. 20 that he was ready to work with Washington on a plan to end the war in Ukraine, and he expects to discuss it with Trump in coming days. But Zelenskyy, whose office said he had received a draft of the plan, said after meeting U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv that Ukraine and the United States would work together on elements of the plan. "Our teams—Ukraine and the USA—will work on the points of the plan to end the war," Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram. "We are ready for constructive, honest and prompt work." Zelenskyy's office did not comment directly on the content of the 28-point plan, but said the Ukrainian leader had "outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people." Zelenskyy noted both Ukrainian and U.S. teams will work on points for an end-of-war plan and expressed readiness for constructive cooperation. (Reuters, 11.20.25, Axios, 11.20.25, Zelenskyy Official Telegram, 11.20.25)
  • Trump’s draft peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5, committing the U.S. and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the broader “transatlantic community,” according to Axios. In contrast, a separate U.S. document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal outlines far more limited security assurances: Washington and its allies would provide intelligence, logistical support and other measures “judged appropriate” if Russia renewed the war, but it does not commit the U.S. to direct military assistance. These guarantees would last 10 years and could be extended. (Axios, 11.21.25, WSJ, 11.21.25)
    • A senior White House official said the Trump administration views the proposed security guarantee as a "big win" for Zelenskyy and for Ukraine's long-term security. (Axios, 11.21.25)
    • The plan could open Trump to backlash with his America First allies, as it would effectively commit the U.S. military to defending Ukraine in the event of another war. (Axios, 11.21.25)
  • Zelenskyy and Driscoll have agreed on an “aggressive timetable” for signing a U.S.-proposed Ukraine peace plan, according to RBC/Ukraine and Axios sources. Ukrainian officials say Washington expects Zelenskyy to sign a U.S.–Russia peace agreement before Thanksgiving next week, aiming to present the deal in Moscow later this month and conclude the process by early December. Kyiv argues the compressed timeline leaves little room to seek better terms. (FT, 11.20.25, Washington Post, 11.21.25, RBC.ua, 11.20.25)⁴
  • Zelenskyy also said: “[W]e in Ukraine have supported every decisive step and the leadership of [U.S. President Donald Trump], every strong and fair proposal aimed at ending this war. […] But the most important factor for stopping the bloodshed and achieving lasting peace is that we work in close coordination with all partners, and that American leadership remains effective, strong and brings us closer to a peace that endures and ensures security for the people.” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
  • In its first public confirmation, Zelenskyy's office stated on Nov. 20 that he "agreed to work on the points of the [U.S.] plan in such a way that it would provide a dignified end to the war." The statement emphasized Ukraine’s readiness to work constructively with the U.S., European and global partners for peace, and noted that Zelenskyy expects to discuss diplomatic opportunities and key issues directly with Trump in the coming days. (RFE/RL, 11.20.25)
  • U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Julie Davis said she and Army Secretary Driscoll held highly constructive talks with Ukrainian leaders, stressing that everyone shares Trump’s vision for ending the war and that momentum is shifting toward “the peace the Ukrainians have longed for.” She described the administration as moving at an aggressive pace, calling the Kyiv negotiations the most ambitious diplomatic effort she has seen. Both sides are working on a fast timeline for a deal, though Davis noted it will require tough compromises from Ukraine and Russia, with rapid progress expected potentially after Thanksgiving. (U.S. Embassy Kyiv on X, 11.20.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 11.20.25)
• A new survey by the “Chronicles” project finds that 64% of Russians want the Kremlin to end the war and sign a peace deal with Ukraine, but only 36% believe such an agreement is possible. While 50% still say they support the “special military operation,” 78% expect increased military spending and 35% expect new mobilization. Over half (55%) would not approve of their relatives signing up to fight. (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• Russian attitudes toward Ukraine have slightly improved over the past year, with 20% now viewing Ukraine positively (up 6 points since May 2025), while 63% view Ukraine negatively—a decrease of 11 points over the past six months. (Levada Center, 11.20.25)

Reactions

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the proposed U.S. peace plans for Ukraine as “a list of potential ideas for ending the war,” emphasizing that nothing is finalized and negotiations remain open. Rubio said on X that Washington will “continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.” He stressed that ending a complex and deadly war requires “an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas” and that achieving a durable peace will necessitate “difficult but necessary concessions” from both sides. (Meduza, 11.20.25, RFE/RL, 11.20.25, Reuters, 11.20.25)
• White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a briefing with reporters on Nov. 20 that the “president supports this plan. It is a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine, and we believe it should be acceptable to both sides and we are working hard to get it done." (Axios, 11.20.25)
• Don Bacon, Republican representative from Nebraska, said: “I totally disagree with the Administration negotiating w/ the Russians & not the Ukrainians, and their plan to demand the Ukrainians accept the agreement as a ‘fait accompli.’ Not involving the Europeans is foolish. The U.S. did this too with South Vietnam & the Afghan Government. This sounds like 1938 Munich.” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• A U.S. official told Axios the domestic scandal could make Zelenskyy more willing to make difficult concessions for peace. Some analysts think the opposite—that the uncertainty surrounding his political future means he can't afford to be seen as selling out to Moscow. (Axios, 11.20.25)
• "Russia is not offering a diplomatic settlement; it is offering Ukraine unconditional capitulation," Mikhail Podolyak, the Ukrainian presidential adviser, said on X, while a senior lawmaker, Iryna Gerashchenko, described the leaked plan as an attempt to test whether Ukraine is ready "for submission." (Washington Post, 11.20.25)
• Kirill Dmitriev—Putin’s envoy and head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, told Axios he’s optimistic about the plan’s prospects because “the Russian position is really being heard.” (Foreign Policy, 11.20.25)
• "Consultations are not currently under way. There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called consultations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He said Russia had nothing to add beyond the position Putin laid out at a summit with Trump in August, adding that any peace deal must address the "root causes of the conflict," a phrase Moscow has long used to refer to its demands. (Reuters, 11.20.25)
• Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said: “If the American side had put forward any proposals, they would have been conveyed through the established diplomatic channels.” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said: “Of course, for any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board. This is very clear. Also, we have to understand that in this war, there is one aggressor and one victim. We have not heard of any concessions on the Russian side. If Russia really wanted peace, it could have had agreed to unconditional ceasefire already some time ago.” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• "Ukrainians want peace—a just peace that respects everyone's sovereignty, a durable peace that can't be called into question by future aggression," said French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. "But peace cannot be a capitulation." (Reuters, 11.20.25)
• German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul spoke on the phone with Witkoff and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on Nov. 20 to “discuss various ongoing efforts to end Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” he said in a statement. Witkoff assured German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in a call on Nov. 20 morning that the new plan was "a framework of ideas" that includes Ukrainian positions and Russian positions, a U.S. official said. "Witkoff stressed that the Trump administration is doing the responsible thing and is searching for ways to end the conflict in Ukraine," the U.S. official said. According to the official, Witkoff told Wadephul: "If people don't like certain parts of the plan, they should let us know and we will try to find a compromise." (Axios, 11.20.25, Bloomberg, 11.20.25)
• "We commend peace efforts but Europe is the main supporter of Ukraine, and it is of course Europe's security at stake, so we expect to be consulted," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters. Ukraine should not face restrictions on its military, Sikorski said, calling for Russia's "aggressive potential" to be restricted instead. But asked if any European officials were included in drafting the U.S. plan, he said, "Not to my knowledge." (Washington Post, 11.20.25)
• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said any proposal for a peace agreement with Russia must have Ukraine’s consent. (Bloomberg, 11.20.25)
• Johann Wadephul, German foreign minister, said: “We have not been briefed on this. There are ongoing efforts by all international partners to finally get President Putin to the negotiating table.” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• Elina Valtonen, Finnish foreign minister, said: “Judging by the contents, their [peace plan conditions] were written in Moscow. They completely disregard the principles of the U.N. Charter, [effectively legitimizing armed aggression].” (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• Ukrainian and European officials don’t yet know what happens if Kyiv rejects the plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Ukraine relies on U.S. intelligence support for air defense and on U.S. weapons that are paid for mostly by the Europeans. (Bloomberg, 11,20.25)
• Oil declined after Zelenskyy said he agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the U.S. and Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 1% to trade below $59 a barrel on Nov. 20 morning following Zelenskyy’s comments after a meeting with top U.S. generals visiting Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 11.20.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

Details

• On Nov. 21 President Trump indicated he was giving Ukraine until next Thursday, Nov. 27, to agree to a peace proposal from the U.S. to end the war with Russia. Trump was asked during an appearance on the “Brian Kilmeade Show” on Fox News Radio about reports that the administration was giving Ukraine a deadline to sign off on the proposal or lose U.S. support. “So is next Thursday the deadline, that you gave a loose deadline for Ukraine?” Kilmeade asked. “Well, we have, you know, I’ve had a lot of deadlines, but if things are working well, you tend to extend the deadlines,” Trump responded. “But Thursday is, we think, an appropriate time.” (The Hill, 11.21.25)
• On Nov. 21, Putin said that the Russia-U.S. peace plan could “form the basis for a final peace settlement” but continued to threaten Ukraine with further military aggression. Speaking at a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council, Putin called the plan “a new version” and “a modernized plan” of what was discussed with the U.S. ahead of the Alaska summit earlier this year, and said Moscow has received it. “If Kyiv does not want to discuss President Trump’s proposals and refuses it, then both they and the European warmongers should understand that the events that took place in Kupiansk will inevitably be repeated in other key areas of the front,” Putin said. (Kyiv Post, 11.21.25, Independent, 11.21.25, Washington Post, 11.21.25)
• Zelenskyy and Trump are expected to hold a call next week to discuss the U.S. peace plan, after Zelenskyy first consults U.K., France, Italy, and Germany’s leaders. Meanwhile, the United States has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries to Ukraine if Kyiv does not agree to the plan. (Reuters, 11.21.25, Sky News, 11.21.25, Washington Post, 11.21.25)
  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. sought to craft a Ukraine peace plan in which “both sides gain more than they must give,” offering security guarantees and economic opportunities for both Ukraine and Russia. She also said U.S. officials had closely coordinated terms with Kyiv and that Ukraine’s national security chief, Rustem Umerov, had endorsed “the majority of the plan” during discussions. Umerov publicly denied this on Nov. 21, saying he had provided “no assessments or, even more so, approvals of any points.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.21.25, WSJ, 11.21.25)
• On Nov. 21 Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he will not betray Ukraine as he promised to propose "alternatives" to Trump’s peace proposal—while Putin backed the deal. “This in our history," the Ukrainian president said in a video address to the nation on Nov. 21, following a phone call with U.S. Vice President JD Vance. "Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice, either losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner.” (Independent, 11.21.25, Washington Post, 11.21.25)
• Kyiv’s biggest European allies lined up with Zelenskyy to reject key elements of a U.S.-Russian plan to end the war in Ukraine as Washington threatened to halt military support to force acceptance of the deal. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer of the U.K. agreed on a call with Zelenskyy on Nov. 21 that Ukraine’s armed forces must remain capable of defending its sovereignty and that the current line of contact should be the starting point for any peace talks, according to a statement from the German government. The leaders stressed close coordination with each other, other European partners and the U.S., and emphasized that any agreement affecting Europe, the EU or NATO should have allied consensus and safeguard Ukraine’s core interests. (Korrespondent.net, 11.21.25, Sky News, 11.21.25, Bloomberg, 11.21.25)

Reactions

• Ukraine’s deputy representative to the U.N., Kristina Hayovyshyn, told the U.N. Security Council that Ukraine’s “red lines are clear and inviolable” while commenting on the Trump peace plan. She stressed Ukraine will never recognize Russian-occupied territories as Russian, reject any limits on Ukrainian self-defense, military size or the right to choose alliances, and will not reward Russia’s aggression or accept attacks on Ukrainian identity and language. However, she said Ukraine is ready to work constructively on the U.S. peace plan project. (Meduza, 11.21.25)
• A senior Ukrainian diplomat told the United Nations Security Council that Ukraine opposed ceding territory to Russia and other provisions of the plan. “Ukraine won’t accept any limits on its right to self-defense, or on the size or capabilities of our armed forces,” said Khrystyna Hayovyshyn, Ukraine’s deputy permanent U.N. representative. (WSJ, 11.21.25)
• On social media, Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, posted, “Together with our American partners, we are working to end Russian aggression against Ukraine and achieve a just and lasting peace.” (New York Times, 11.19.25)
• Many Ukrainians view the new U.S.-Russian peace plan—requiring Ukraine to cede territory, shrink its military and give up NATO aspirations—as “capitulation,” sparking anger and skepticism, especially as the plan was drafted without input from Kyiv or European allies. Despite exhaustion from years of war, officials and civilians say surrendering to Moscow’s maximalist demands is unacceptable and recall past failed security guarantees. Local leaders and soldiers argue only continued resistance preserves Ukraine’s dignity and independence. (New York Times, 11.21.25)
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow “hasn’t heard Ukraine’s consent” to negotiate on the Trump administration’s 28‑point U.S. peace plan, noting that Russia has not been formally notified by Zelenskyy about any readiness to discuss it. He said the “effective work of the Russian Armed Forces should convince Zelenskyy and his regime that it is better to negotiate—and better to do so now than later,” adding that Zelenskyy’s room for maneuver is shrinking as Ukraine loses territory. At the same time, Peskov said Russia is open to peace talks but is not holding substantive discussions on any plan, including Trump’s. He acknowledged “certain ideas” from the U.S. side but stressed the Kremlin has not received or engaged with any formal proposals and will not negotiate “in megaphone mode.” Peskov also dismissed media reports suggesting Zelenskyy might sign a plan by Nov. 27. (Washington Post, 11.21.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.21.25, Meduza, 11.21.25)
• One person familiar with the contents of the plan said it would require months of painstaking negotiations to bring it to a format that could be acceptable to Ukraine. “Even if Zelenskyy wanted to sign it, he couldn’t because there is no political basis for it,” this person said. “There are many nonstarters there. Clearly this is a pro-Russian deal that was written by Dmitriev and Witkoff.” (Washington Post, 11.21.25)
• Russia’s stock market rallied, with the MOEX Index rising 2.4% Nov. 21, amid optimism over reports of a potential U.S.-brokered peace plan for Ukraine that could lead to a swift end to the war. Major stocks like Tatneft, Aeroflot, Gazprom, Sberbank and Lukoil saw gains. Investors reacted positively to news that Zelenskyy is considering the proposal, despite pending contentious terms on territorial and military concessions, and discussions of returning frozen Russian assets. (Moscow Times, 11.21.25)
• Oil prices pared losses after Ukraine and its European allies rejected key parts of the U.S.-Russia peace plan, which would have required Kyiv to cede territory and lift sanctions on Moscow. Brent crude was down over 1% after earlier dropping 2.3%. Market sentiment suggests traders see limited risk to supply unless a concrete peace is reached, while new sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and India’s shift away from Russian oil add uncertainty to the market. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• Gold trimmed losses after Kyiv and European allies rejected key parts of a U.S.-Russian plan to end the war in Ukraine. Bullion traded near $4,060 an ounce, headed for a slight weekly loss following a selloff in equities and cryptocurrencies, and a U.S. jobs report that clouded the outlook for another Federal Reserve rate cut in December. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025

• Arctic leaders warn of rising risks of hybrid warfare—including Russian sabotage of undersea cables—threatening communications in the far north. Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands plan new data cables to boost resilience, as recent incidents have shown Arctic internet and power links are vulnerable and difficult to protect or quickly repair if attacked. (Financial Times, 11.16.25)

Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could be capable of attacking a NATO member as early as 2028 or 2029, urging Europe to accelerate rearmament in response to Moscow’s expanding military capabilities and open imperial ambitions. Pistorius emphasized the need for a rapid military buildup after years of underinvestment and said “some military historians even argue that last summer may have been our last in peace.” However, he stressed that NATO remains fully capable of defending itself, both conventionally and with its nuclear deterrent. (Kyiv Post,  11.17.25)
• Poland’s Prime Minister labeled a recent explosion on the Warsaw-Lublin rail line—a critical route for aid to Ukraine—an “unprecedented act of sabotage,” forcing a passenger train to halt and triggering heightened inspections near the Ukraine border. The incident, which caused additional infrastructure damage and echoes a string of suspected Russian sabotage and drone incursions across Europe, represents a serious escalation amid regional tensions. Polish officials vow to track down the perpetrators and have linked similar disruptions to Moscow, describing the sabotage as part of a broader gray-zone conflict targeting Western security. (Wall Street Journal, 11.17.25)
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk labeled an explosion on the Warsaw-Lublin railway—used for transporting military aid to Ukraine—as an "unprecedented act of sabotage" against Poland. Another damaged site was found on the same line, and authorities are investigating possible links to Russia as part of broader concerns over Moscow’s hybrid campaign in Europe. (RFE/RL, 11.17.25)
  • Poland’s Prime Minister labeled a recent explosion on the Warsaw-Lublin rail line—a critical route for aid to Ukraine—an “unprecedented act of sabotage,” forcing a passenger train to halt and triggering heightened inspections near the Ukraine border. The incident, which caused additional infrastructure damage and echoes a string of suspected Russian sabotage and drone incursions across Europe, represents a serious escalation amid regional tensions. Polish officials vow to track down the perpetrators and have linked similar disruptions to Moscow, describing the sabotage as part of a broader gray-zone conflict targeting Western security. (Wall Street Journal, 11.17.25)
  • Poland suspects Russian intelligence orchestrated the Nov. 17 explosion on a railway used to supply Ukraine, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk calling it an “unprecedented act of sabotage” and officials saying two Ukrainian nationals working for Russia were responsible before fleeing to Belarus. Authorities are treating the incident as terrorism ordered by a foreign power, raising the security alert and deploying military to protect critical infrastructure, as Poland and other European countries face what they describe as a sustained Russian hybrid campaign of sabotage and espionage. (RFE/RL, 11.18.25)
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused two Ukrainians allegedly working for Russian intelligence of carrying out an explosion on a key rail line near Warsaw, calling it an “unprecedented act of sabotage” aimed at causing mass casualties and disrupting aid routes to Ukraine. The suspects, whose identities are known to Polish authorities, reportedly fled to Belarus after the attack. The incident is part of what Polish officials describe as an escalation in Russia’s hybrid war against Poland, following previous sabotage, cyberattacks, and arson linked to Moscow since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Financial Times, 11.18.25)
  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused two Ukrainians working for Russian intelligence of carrying out an explosion on a major rail line to Ukraine, calling it “probably the most serious” sabotage act since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The suspects fled to Belarus, and Poland will seek their extradition. Polish officials blame Moscow for orchestrating the attack, which targeted a crucial transit route for aid to Kyiv and heightened concerns about Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against NATO and the EU. The Kremlin denied involvement, as NATO and Polish investigators continue to probe the incident. (Bloomberg, 11.18.25)
• Romanian authorities evacuated residents from Plauru, a village on the Danube near the Ukrainian border, after a Russian drone reportedly struck an LPG ship on the Ukrainian side. Though no airspace violations were reported, repeated Russian drone attacks in the region have prompted frequent alerts and bolstered NATO air defense measures, including the planned "drone wall" along the EU's eastern border. (RFE/RL, 11.17.25)
• Finland deported a Russian man, reportedly a former Wagner mercenary, who illegally crossed the border and sought asylum in June. His request was denied, and he was escorted back to Russia on Nov. 14. Public broadcaster Yle identified him as “Yevgeny” and said he had fought in Ukraine and criticized Russia’s military leadership. (MT/AFP, 11.17.25)
• EU Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that Europe is “not ready” to counter potential Russian drone attacks and urged integration of Ukraine’s battle-tested air defense expertise. The EU is scrambling to strengthen its defenses after recent Russian drone incursions over Poland, the Baltics, and Romania, but Kubilius warned full readiness will take years unless Ukraine’s experience is leveraged. (MT/AFP, 11.17.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

• NATO would currently need roughly 45 days to move an estimated 200,000 troops, 1,500 tanks, and over 2,500 armored vehicles from Western Europe to the eastern flank, but new EU military mobility plans aim to cut transit time to as little as 3–5 days. Persistent bottlenecks such as mismatched rail gauges, crumbling bridges, and customs bureaucracy—highlighted by France’s €24 billion Rail Baltica upgrade for the Baltics—are being addressed as part of a €500 billion European infrastructure push, with NATO states (except Spain) pledging 5% of GDP for defense by 2035, including up to 1.5% for infrastructure upgrades. (Financial Times, 11.18.25)
• Romanian authorities extinguished a fire sparked by a Russian drone strike on the Turkish-flagged LPG tanker Ordina on the Danube River at the Ukraine-Romania border, prompting the evacuation of several nearby villages due to explosion fears. While some residents have returned, Plauru village remains evacuated as risks persist. No unauthorized aerial incursions were detected in Romanian airspace, though repeated Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian ports have led NATO to bolster defenses in the region, highlighting rising regional security concerns. (RFE/RL, 11.18.25)
• U.S. and European security services are locked in a secret struggle with Russia over the extradition of Yaroslav Mikhailov, a Russian operative accused of masterminding a 2024 parcel bomb plot that set fire to air cargo depots in Germany, Poland, and England. Russia’s intelligence chiefs are pressuring Azerbaijan to return Mikhailov to Moscow, while Poland, the UK, Ukraine, and Lithuania seek his handover to face terrorism charges. Mikhailov is described as a vital GRU-linked figure coordinating criminal proxies for hybrid attacks, with Western officials warning that Russia’s battle to reclaim him highlights the rising importance of trusted operatives in the Kremlin’s sabotage campaign against Europe. (Washington Post, 11.18.25)
• As the Trump administration rolls back U.S. government efforts to counter foreign disinformation, France is stepping up its own campaign—publicly calling out Russian and other influence operations, launching new “French Response” initiatives, and focusing on media literacy for youth. French officials say fighting disinformation is now a core national security issue, even as far-right parties criticize such measures as censorship. Paris stresses it aims to inform citizens without suppressing opinion, taking a divergent approach from Washington as U.S. defenses are scaled back. (New York Times, 11.18.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

• The Defense Ministry of Romania said it had scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone entered its territory early on Wednesday morning. Warplanes from Poland and other NATO countries were also scrambled to safeguard Polish airspace during the latest Russian barrage on Ukraine, the Polish Armed Forces said in a statement. The military described the response as “preventative” and said that its airspace had not been violated. (New York Times, 11.19.25)
• UK Defense Secretary John Healey warned that a Russian spy ship, Yantar, targeted an RAF surveillance plane with lasers while near UK waters this month. Healey announced lower rules of engagement for the Navy and “military options ready,” responding to Yantar’s activities mapping and surveilling undersea cables critical to NATO infrastructure. The ship, equipped with submersibles for espionage and possible sabotage, is operated by Russia’s secretive directorate GUGI. Healey emphasized that Britain will monitor and respond more assertively to such threats. (Financial Times, 11.19.25)
• Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced the closure of Russia’s consulate general in Gdansk—the last such Russian mission in the country—following recent incidents of suspected Russian sabotage on Polish railways. While Poland will maintain formal diplomatic ties with Moscow, the Kremlin condemned the move as a sign of complete deterioration in bilateral relations and vowed reciprocal reductions in Polish diplomatic presence in Russia. (Meduza, 11.19.25)
• Germany’s cabinet has approved its first national space security strategy, aiming to build a “robust and deterrent” satellite network and boost independence in space alongside EU and NATO allies. The plan includes €35 billion in investment by 2030, military satellite operations, and discussions of “offensive capabilities” to defend against threats like Russian GPS jamming. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)
• German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall forecasts its sales will reach €50 billion ($58 billion) by 2030—five times 2024 levels—driven by soaring European defense spending and demand for air defense systems amid heightened Russian threats. CEO Armin Papperger said air defense for Germany’s eastern border alone could cost €24.6 billion, while by 2030 Rheinmetall expects over €14–16 billion in annual sales from its weapons and ammunition segment and up to €10 billion from its digital business. The firm also projects its operating margin will exceed 20% by decade’s end. (Wall Street Journal, 11.19.25)
• The European Union has proposed a €17.65 billion ($20.44 billion) plan to upgrade transport infrastructure—bridges, roads, tunnels, and railways—to enable rapid military movement across the bloc as tensions with Russia persist. The Commission also aims to simplify military logistics rules and support defense tech startups with new funding. About 500 projects requiring up to €100 billion have been identified, and the Commission stressed these measures are meant as deterrence, not provocation. (Wall Street Journal, 11.19.25)
• The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, labeled Russia’s recent acts—including a railway explosion in Poland—as state-sponsored terrorism, citing sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns attributed to Moscow. Kallas warned that Russia aims to sow fear and disrupt EU support for Ukraine, urging a unified, robust response. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)
• U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey this morning confirmed that a Russian spy ship—the Yantar—is on the edge of UK waters, north of Scotland, having entered the UK’s wider waters over the last few weeks.” (UK MOD X Account, 11.19.25)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

• France’s top general, Fabien Mandon, caused uproar by stating that France must be ready to see its soldiers die to deter Russian aggression. His remarks highlighted a broader debate on Europe’s military resolve and willingness to bear losses to counter Moscow, drawing both political backlash and government support. (Bloomberg, 11.20.25)
• In St. Petersburg, an attempted attack was made on Polish Ambassador Krzysztof Krajewski as he walked to St. Catherine’s Basilica on Nov. 16. A group of unidentified individuals surrounded him with anti-Polish and anti-Ukrainian posters, insulted him, and tried to assault him before his security intervened. The ambassador was unharmed. (Mediazona, 11.20.25)
• Top of Form
• Polish authorities identified two Ukrainians, Yevhen Ivanov and Oleksandr Kononov, as suspects in recent railway sabotage; investigators say they were recruited by Russian intelligence to plant explosives on train lines in Poland. Both men face terrorism charges and life imprisonment if convicted. (Korrespondent.net, 11.20.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• Reform UK’s former leader in Wales was sentenced to 10 and-a-half years in prison after pleading guilty to making pro-Russian statements for cash, raising uncomfortable questions for Nigel Farage and his poll-topping-party. Nathan Gill was sentenced for eight counts of bribery between December 2018 and July 2019, when he represented Farage’s former UK Independence Party in the European parliament.. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• The UK National Crime Agency has linked Wirecard fugitive Jan Marsalek and a Bulgarian spy ring he operated to a multibillion-dollar money laundering scheme that funneled money from British drug dealers to sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Using money laundering networks “Smart” and “TGR,” Russian intelligence allegedly moved funds for criminals and evaded sanctions, with the networks converting criminal cash into cryptocurrency for transfer abroad. Bulgarian spy chief Orlin Roussev and his accomplices were jailed earlier this year for spying for Russia. (Financial Times, 11.21.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Vladimir Putin announced that Chinese citizens will soon be able to visit Russia visa-free, mirroring China’s recent one-year trial allowing Russians to travel visa-free for up to 30 days. Putin made the pledge during talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, saying the reciprocal move will further boost bilateral ties, though no exact start date was given. The policy is expected to significantly increase tourism and travel between the two countries. (Moscow Times, 11.19.25)
• The EU’s top diplomat warned that Europe’s deep economic dependence on China limits its ability to pressure Beijing over Russia’s war in Ukraine, since China could retaliate in ways that hurt European supply chains and markets. Kaja Kallas urged allies to act together on China policy, stressing that isolated EU action could be too costly. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The State Department deleted 15 pages from a key Foreign Relations of the United States digital volume in January 2025, excising records about the 1983 Able Archer nuclear war scare—including alarming Defense Intelligence Agency warnings—without public explanation or transparency, following Freedom of Information Act litigation and the abrupt dismissal of the FRUS oversight committee by the Trump administration. (Washington Post, 11.14.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

• Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Aleksandr Darchiev criticized the lack of clarity from the U.S. regarding recent statements about possible nuclear tests, saying Washington’s failure to specify whether actual warhead detonations are under consideration undermines arms control trust and provokes speculation. He noted that a U.S. revival of nuclear tests faces strong domestic criticism and rejected U.S. claims of Russian and Chinese testing as unfounded, insisting Moscow remains open to honest arms control dialogue strictly on Russian national interests. (Kommersant.net, 11.19.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Analysts forecast that Russia’s cybersecurity market could reach 968 billion rubles (almost 1 trillion RUB) by 2030, driven by import substitution and a decline in foreign vendors’ share to less than 5%. The Center for Strategic Research predicts an average annual market growth rate of 21%, sharply outpacing both the global cybersecurity sector (11.8%) and the Russian IT market overall (9.8–15% in 2024). Services currently make up 26.9% of the market, with information protection tools accounting for 73.1%. (Кommersant.net via ejdailyru/Telegram, 11.17.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025

• The U.S. Treasury has granted a license for companies to negotiate purchases of Lukoil’s international assets—including oilfields, refineries, and nearly 200 gas stations—until Dec. 13, to prevent market disruption as new sanctions take effect. Sanction waivers will allow Lukoil’s Bulgaria operations to trade until April, and its global gas stations to operate through the end of the year. (Financial Times, 11.15.25)

Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025

• Gazprom is pushing ahead with detailed design work on the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China, signaling renewed urgency after years of stalled talks. The pipeline’s estimated cost may exceed $30 billion and would carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, partly offsetting lost exports to Europe. While engineering has begun inside Russia, key terms with China—including pricing—remain unresolved and Beijing is moving cautiously. (Financial Times, 11.16.25)

Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

• Chevron is exploring the purchase of selected international assets from sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil, focusing on overlapping interests in Kazakhstan oilfields and Nigerian offshore licenses, after receiving U.S. Treasury clearance to engage in talks. The move puts Chevron alongside Carlyle and other firms competing for Lukoil’s foreign portfolio, potentially valued at over $20 billion. The asset sale follows new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s top oil companies as part of efforts to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. (Reuters, 11.17.25)
• Russia’s Urals oil price dropped to $36.61 per barrel—a 2.5-year low and a $23.52 discount to Brent—as U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil loom. Buyers in China, India, and Turkey are already pausing purchases, squeezing Russian oil revenues and threatening Kremlin tax receipts just as sanctions intensify. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)
• Russian oil prices have plummeted as Indian and Chinese refiners halted purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil ahead of new U.S. sanctions taking effect Nov. 21. Urals crude fell to $36.61 per barrel—a $23.51 discount to Brent—forcing Russian suppliers to store record volumes at sea and raising concerns about Kremlin revenue as about 45% of former exports to China and much of India are impacted. (MT/AFP, 11.17.25)
• Serbia is considering seizing control of NIS, its only oil refinery—mostly owned by Russia’s Gazprom—after the U.S. refused to ease sanctions that threaten to halt crude supplies. Belgrade faces running out of fuel within a week and may nationalize NIS unless Russian owners quickly transfer control, as Washington demands a full Russian exit. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)
• Consumers are facing higher prices at the pump as refinery outages and Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel plants—plus upcoming U.S. and EU sanctions—restrict global supplies of gasoline and diesel, despite falling crude oil prices. Refinery profit margins are at record highs, with disruptions in Russia, Kuwait, and Nigeria reducing available fuel, resulting in continued high costs for drivers worldwide. (Bloomberg, 11.17.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025

• Expanding U.S. and allied sanctions are sharply reducing Russian and Iranian oil flows to China, as major Chinese refiners and ports pause purchases to avoid penalties, causing a glut of discounted “sensitive” oil on the market and pushing prices down. Industry estimates suggest China’s imports of Russian seaborne crude could fall by as much as two-thirds this month, with Iranian inflows down by up to 30%. While Chinese refiners may find workarounds or wait for stricter enforcement clarity, the current slowdown is already pressuring Moscow and Tehran’s revenues as oil tanks up at sea. (Bloomberg, 11.18.25)
• Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have fallen for a fourth consecutive week, hitting their lowest level since August, while prices for Russian oil have slumped and revenues dropped to around $1.2 billion a week—the lowest in over two years. U.S. sanctions on top Russian producers have deterred buyers in Asia, left tankers backed up at Indian ports, and pushed much of Moscow’s oil trading further into secrecy, with more vessels sailing under “unknown” destinations. Growing volumes of Russian oil now remain at sea, risking further revenue losses amid tougher U.S. measures and Ukrainian attacks on export infrastructure. (Bloomberg, 11.18.25)
• Despite U.S. President Trump’s threats to impose severe sanctions—including 500% tariffs—on buyers of Russian oil, India increased its Russian fossil fuel imports last month to €3.1 billion, second only to China, with crude purchases up 11% from the previous month and state-owned refiners sharply raising volumes. In a gesture to the U.S., India agreed to buy 2.2mn tons of American LPG, a move seen as politically motivated rather than economically rational. At the same time, India is ramping up export support measures and bracing for continued uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, while the EU plans to reject India’s call for exemption from its carbon border tax. (Financial Times, 11.18.25)
• Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, has begun importing U.S. liquefied natural gas via Lithuania’s Klaipeda LNG terminal, as Russian attacks have knocked out more than half of Ukraine’s domestic gas production. The first shipment of about 100 million cubic meters was handled by DTEK’s trading arm, D.Trading, marking a new supply route and alternative to previous imports via Greece. Ukraine now estimates it will need roughly 4 billion cubic meters of gas imports this winter, with both private and state companies negotiating expanded U.S. gas supplies through Europe. (Bloomberg, 11.18.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

• The U.S. Treasury claims recent sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil are driving Russian oil prices to multi-year lows and causing major buyers in India and China to pause December purchases. The U.S. says it’s ready for more measures to cut Russia’s wartime revenues, but experts warn the impact will depend on how strictly sanctions are enforced. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)
• Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., and Carlyle Group are among the companies expressing interest in acquiring Lukoil’s international assets ahead of new U.S. sanctions taking effect Dec. 13, with the Trump administration reportedly favoring a U.S. buyer. While Lukoil aims to sell its non-Russian holdings as a single package, some suitors are interested only in select assets, raising the possibility of a two-step sale. Earlier attempts to sell to Gunvor Group were blocked by the U.S.. The sale may include key assets like Lukoil’s stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oil field and gas operations in Uzbekistan. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

• China imported a record 1.3 million metric tons of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in September 2025—a 73% jump over the previous year—amid discounts from Russian producer Novatek and continued Western sanctions. With European demand for Russian piped gas sharply down since the Ukraine war, Moscow has redirected supplies to Asia. Russia sent over 4 billion cubic meters of gas to China in September, and Chinese buyers continue purchasing despite U.S. efforts to restrict the LNG trade. (MT/AFP, 11.20.25)
• U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have caused a major slump in Russian oil exports via key western ports. Baltic Sea exports have dropped sharply: shipments from the Primorsk port fell 73% in a week, Ust-Luga’s exports are down 40% year-on-year, and Novorossiysk’s Black Sea exports plummeted after a drone attack. Overall, Russia’s seaborne oil exports hit a yearly low, with budget revenue down trillions of rubles—forcing the government to tap into its National Wealth Fund. (Korrespondent.net, 11.20.25)
• New U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are forcing Bulgaria and Serbia to end long-standing Russian energy dominance: Bulgaria has seized Lukoil’s refinery and Serbia is preparing for a non-Russian takeover of NIS, weakening Putin’s influence in the Balkans after decades of close ties and reliance on Russian energy. (Bloomberg, 11.20.25)
• Russian owners of Serbia’s state-linked oil company NIS have agreed in principle to sell their controlling 56% stake, Serbia’s energy minister announced, seeking to lift U.S. sanctions that have blocked crude deliveries and threatened the country’s only refinery. The buyer remains undisclosed. Serbia owns nearly 30% of NIS, which is scrambling to secure supplies before reserves run out. The move comes as other Eastern European countries seek to revise Russian oil firm ownership due to sanctions. (MT/AFP, 11.20.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• India’s largest private oil refiner, Reliance Industries, has stopped importing Russian crude at its main export refinery to comply with new U.S. and EU sanctions, ending Reliance’s status as Russia’s top foreign buyer since the start of the Ukraine war. Indian officials say future exports from the refinery will use non-Russian oil, reflecting growing U.S. pressure and the threat of expanded sanctions on third-country petroleum exports. (Financial Times, 11.21.25)
• U.S. sanctions that came into force on Friday are set to leave almost 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded on the water, pushing dozens of tankers to scramble for alternative destinations in the latest overhaul of the global oil trade. Washington’s move last month to blacklist top producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC is arguably its most aggressive to date under the current administration, as President Donald Trump tries to dial up pressure on the Kremlin over the war in Ukraine.. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft are shaking global oil markets, sending Russian oil prices to their largest discount to Brent since 2023 and leaving millions of barrels stranded at sea. Major buyers like India’s Reliance and some Chinese importers have stopped Russian purchases, as shipping rates soar and traditional supply lines are upended. Russia’s energy revenues, crucial for its budget and war effort, are falling sharply, even as uncertainty remains over the long-term impact and enforcement of U.S. penalties. (Wall Street Journal, 11.21.25)
• Russian energy giant Lukoil PJSC dissolved the supervisory board of its international business, the latest sign of how U.S. sanctions—the first of which begin on Friday—are affecting the firm. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)
• A sanctioned Russian oil tanker made a U-turn on the way to Venezuela after a U.S. warship intersected its route near the country’s coast, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking, raising questions about whether Washington could step in to curtail Moscow’s energy aid to Caracas. The Russian vessel, the Seahorse, was en route to Venezuela to deliver a fuel cargo on Nov. 13 when a U.S. destroyer, the USS Stockdale, positioned itself in its path. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Alexander Darchiev said the U.S. State Department refuses to discuss restoring direct air links between Russia and the U.S., which were suspended after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Darchiev also accused U.S. authorities of linking talks on aviation and the return of six Russian diplomatic properties to progress on the Ukraine issue, and claimed U.S. agencies continue to block Russian diplomats’ access to the properties. Despite Russian proposals in recent negotiations, Washington has so far strongly resisted resuming Aeroflot flights or easing aviation sanctions as part of any potential Ukraine ceasefire. (Meduza, 11.19.25)
• Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Aleksandr Darchiev stated that while the planned U.S.-Russia summit in Budapest has been postponed indefinitely and talks on Ukraine have stalled, high-level contacts continue privately, and dialogue is not dead. He attributed delays to U.S. domestic opposition to Trump and persistent pressures for concessions on Ukraine, but stressed that both countries “are destined to at least negotiate coexistence.” He called for patient diplomacy despite the lack of headline progress. (Kommersant.net, 11.19.25)
• Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Aleksandr Darchiev said that While Russia and the U.S. have made minor improvements—like easing restrictions on diplomatic travel and banking—dialogue on resolving underlying disputes (including seized diplomatic properties and restoring direct flights) remains stuck, with the U.S. linking progress to a Ukraine settlement. Darchiev said Russia is willing to keep pushing for normalization but urged Washington not to limit talks just to “smaller” irritants like visas, stressing a return to broader pre-2016 diplomatic norms is needed. (Kommersant.net, 11.19.25)
• The growth of Orthodox Christianity in the U.S.—especially among young men—has been fueled in part by conservative online influencers and a fascination with the tradition’s deep ties to Eastern Europe and Russia. Many new converts embrace the faith as a countercultural, “masculine” alternative to mainstream American churches, and are drawn to its rigorous rituals, stability, and claims of apostolic lineage stretching through Russia. Scholars note that while much of American Orthodoxy is distinct from Russian state-aligned churches, some corners of U.S. Orthodoxy (including online and in the South) have seen an influx of far-right views, Russophile sentiment, and even white nationalist converts. Critics warn that church leaders have not done enough to distance themselves from reactionary and extremist rhetoric with ties to Russian influence. (New York Times, 11.19.25)
• A new Levada Center poll finds that Russian attitudes toward the U.S. have soured again: 34% now view the U.S. positively (down 14 points since August), while 45% view it negatively. Negative views of Germany remain high at 58%, with only 25% positive; attitudes to the EU improved slightly, with negative sentiment falling to 58% and positive rising to 23%. Approval of the UK stands at 20% positive and 62% negative. (Levada Center, 11.20.25)
• Russian civil aviation authorities said Friday that all airports closed after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine are prepared to reopen as soon as the Defense Ministry grants final approval. Flights at 11 airports across southern and central Russia were suspended in February 2022 because of safety risks as President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into neighboring Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.21.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Multiple sources close to the Kremlin told RBK that President Vladimir Putin’s annual combined “Direct Line” Q&A and major press conference is tentatively scheduled for Dec. 19, though Dec. 18 is also under consideration; the final decision will be made later. If held on the 19th—a Friday—it would mark the first time the event isn’t on a Thursday, a choice reportedly made in previous years to maximize public and media attention. (ejdailyru/Telegram, 11.17.25)
• The Kremlin has abandoned plans to allocate up to 150 State Duma seats to veterans of the war in Ukraine (“SVO”) in the 2026 elections, after officials determined that too few are suited for government roles—sources say only 50–70 veterans may ultimately get seats. Regional government recruitment programs for ex-combatants have also struggled to find suitable candidates, with only a handful hired for municipal leadership roles. Previous attempts to install veterans in office have sometimes led to conflicts, forced returns to the front, or, in some cases, their deaths in combat. (iStories, 11.19.25)
• Russia’s State Duma approved the 2026–28 federal budget, prioritizing defense and national security, which will account for nearly 38% of spending. To offset a projected deficit and war-related costs, lawmakers passed tax increases, including a VAT hike from 20% to 22% and a lower threshold for business tax liability. The measures aim to shore up revenue amid sanctions and falling oil/gas income, but could strain small businesses and raise inflation. (MT/AFP, 11.20.25)
• Russian companies paid a record 39% of their pre-tax, pre-interest profits toward debt interest in September, up 1.5 times since the start of 2025 and more than triple the rate two years ago, as high rates and declining profits squeeze business margins. Overdue loans have risen sharply, reaching 24.1% of borrowers by October, while nearly a quarter of all company revenue is now generated by firms in “financial vulnerability.” Sectors like construction, woodworking, and automotive face especially heavy debt burdens, with many firms’ obligations exceeding EBITDA several times over. Analysts warn that Russia’s prolonged period of high interest rates is now producing economic effects as severe as the COVID-19 and early war shocks, with the economy stagnating and an increased risk of recession in the coming year. (MT/AFP, 11.17.25)
• Russia’s unpaid wage crisis is rapidly worsening, with official wage arrears quadrupling to 1.95 billion rubles ($24 million) over the past year and nearly 10,300 employees facing delayed pay as of September. Construction and mining workers are hardest hit, but wage delays are now reported in strategic defense plants, oil, education, and healthcare. Mass layoffs, strikes, and growing worker despair highlight the strain, though experts disagree on whether the surge reflects a broader economic crisis or recent changes in reporting methods. (Meduza, 11.18.25)
• Yard keepers (dvorniki) in Russia saw the highest annual wage growth of any profession in September–October, with average monthly salaries reaching 71,800 rubles—a 56% increase from last year and now surpassing the average salary of teachers (71,400 rubles for January–July), according to Avito Raboty and Rosstat data. (ejdailyru/Telegram, 11.18.25)
• President Vladimir Putin signed a law requiring students in state-funded medical residency programs to work at public hospitals or clinics for up to three years after graduation, reviving a Soviet-era system in a bid to address Russia’s chronic healthcare staff shortages. Starting in March 2026, graduates who refuse such assignments must pay tuition if they wish to continue their training, though lawmakers warn the measure could deter young professionals amid a nationwide shortfall of over 23,000 doctors and 63,600 mid-level staff. (MT/AFP, 11.18.25)
• Russia’s government is increasingly imposing mobile internet blackouts and draconian digital controls, citing drone threats and national security, but causing chaos for ordinary Russians—from failed payments to paralyzed businesses. The “digital gulag” now includes widespread service outages, bans on foreign platforms, and a push to migrate all residents to the state’s insecure “Max” app. Despite deep public annoyance, most adapt or seek workarounds rather than protest, in what critics call a new phase of digital repression akin to China or Iran. (Washington Post, 11.15.25)
• Russia’s financial watchdog has added former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and economist Sergei Guriev to its official “extremists and terrorists” registry, along with Novaya Gazeta Europe editor Kirill Martynov. The designation includes a note indicating terrorism charges have been filed against them, tied to accusations that opposition activists attempted to create a “terrorist community.” (iStories, 11.17.25)
• Russia’s financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring has added businessman Yevgeny Chichvarkin, writer Viktor Shenderovich, economist Sergei Aleksashenko, and former lawmaker Maxim Reznik to its list of “terrorists and extremists.” All are members of the Anti-War Committee of Russia, which authorities have accused of plotting to seize power and organizing a terrorist community. (Meduza, 11.21.25)
• Russia’s hardline pro-war bloggers (“Z-bloggers”) are increasingly clashing with the Kremlin, as several have been arrested or labeled “foreign agents” for criticizing Russia’s military leadership and corruption. Once tolerated for boosting public support and fundraising for the war effort, their dissent now faces a widening crackdown, with officials threatening legal destruction of “internal enemies.” The shift reflects Kremlin efforts to centralize control over wartime messaging and resources, despite Z-bloggers’ continued loyalty to President Putin and calls for more aggressive war measures. (The Economist, 11.18.25)
• The Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) reports that companies linked to Andrey Kikoty, head of Russia’s Migration Service, received millions of rubles from St. Petersburg developer Setl Group, despite repeated incidents of undocumented migrant labor and worker deaths at Setl’s construction sites. Kikoty’s firms, registered to his family, retained profits that were later paid as dividends to his wife. (Mediazona, 11.19.25)
• A recent Levada Center poll shows that half of Russians view their personal future with relative calm and confidence—a slight decrease of 4 percentage points since November 2023—while 43% now look to the future with anxiety or fear, up 4 points from November 2024. (Levada Center, 11.19.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• In the third quarter of 2025, over 135,000 people signed contracts with Russia’s Defense Ministry—bringing the total for the first nine months of the year to about 263,000, or nearly 29,000 new contract soldiers per month. The recruitment tempo matches previous years of the war, with regional budget data corroborating a rate of around 30,000 new contract signings monthly. (iStories, 11.17.25)
• A Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jet crashed during a training flight in the Republic of Karelia, killing both pilots on board; the plane was not carrying live munitions and crashed in an uninhabited area near Lake Lososinskoe. The crew belonged to the 159th Fighter Aviation Regiment, which is responsible for patrolling Russia’s border with Finland. Regional authorities expressed condolences and said support would be provided to the pilots’ families. (MT/AFP, 11.18.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Moscow media report that Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu was the target of an assassination attempt at Troyekurovskoye Cemetery; two Russian citizens, a Central Asian migrant, and a man from Kyiv allegedly installed a hidden camera in a vase to track Shoigu’s visit to relatives’ graves. The suspects were detained by the FSB, which last week acknowledged preventing an attack on a high-ranking official but did not disclose the target’s name at the time. (stranaua/Telegram, 11.17.25)
• Russian police arrested a woman in Moscow after her six-year-old son’s severed head was found in a backpack at a local pond, with the rest of his body later discovered in their apartment. The mother confessed to the killing but could not explain her motives; authorities say she had prior psychiatric treatment and now faces murder charges. (MT/AFP, 11.17.25)
• Within a month, two women—Aliya Ozdamirova and Aishat Baimuradova—who fled Chechnya were killed abroad in suspected "honor killings" by their families, who believed the women had brought shame. Despite seeking safety overseas, victims from the North Caucasus region remain at risk, as relatives—with support from Chechen authorities—often pursue those they claim dishonored family traditions. Human rights groups say the true number of such murders is likely much higher than officially reported. (Mediazona, 11.17.25)
• A new report by Novaya Gazeta Europe, citing fresh testimony from convicted organizer Yuri Kolchin, claims the true mastermind behind the 1998 murder of Russian politician and human rights activist Galina Starovoitova was former State Duma deputy Vyacheslav Shevchenko—who was later shot dead in Cyprus. Kolchin, who served 20 years for his role, now says his prior statements implicating crime boss Vladimir Barsukov were false. Officially, Russian investigators have yet to name a confirmed mastermind. (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• President Vladimir Putin has signed legal amendments lowering the age at which minors can be charged with sabotage or terrorism from 16 to 14, abolishing statutes of limitations for such crimes, and restricting parole and suspended sentences. Those recruiting minors for attacks now face up to life in prison. The measures—passed after a surge in youth convictions for arson and sabotage since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—are described by officials as protection against foreign recruitment, though critics warn they risk criminalizing children rather than preventing radicalization. (Moscow Times, 11.18.25)

• A Moscow military court on Thursday sentenced a Russian man to 25 years in prison for planting a car bomb that severely wounded a military intelligence officer and his wife last year Yevgeny Serebryakov was accused of placing an explosive device under the car of a GRU colonel, identified by independent media as Andrei Torgashov, in July 2024. (MT/AFP, 11.21.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia submitted its own UN Security Council resolution for Gaza, countering the U.S. plan that seeks to make Trump’s 20-point peace proposal international law. Russia’s version calls for Palestinian statehood and omits the U.S.-backed stabilization force and new governing board. China backs Russia. The dispute, with America pushing its draft to a quick vote, risks another UNSC stalemate as members demand more guarantees on Palestinian statehood and UN oversight. (New York Times, 11.15.25)
• Duduzile Zuma, daughter of former South African President Jacob Zuma and a current lawmaker, has been linked to recruiting young men from South Africa and Botswana to fight for Russia in Ukraine. About 20 recruits reportedly believed they’d be bodyguards for Zuma’s political party, but after arriving in Russia in July and signing contracts in Russian, they were sent to the front lines—cutting off contact with families by August. (Bloomberg, 11.19.25)
• Russia and Togo have announced plans to open embassies in each other’s capitals in 2026, marking a deepening of ties as Moscow seeks to strengthen its presence in Africa. The move comes after the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement this year. Togo’s President Gnassingbé expressed gratitude for Russian scholarships for Togolese students and said the new embassies will expand bilateral relations. (MT/AFP, 11.20.25)

Ukraine’s Energoatom corruption scandal:

• Law enforcement in Ukraine found bags of cash and a gold toilet while investigating a $100 million kickback scheme tied to defense contracts for energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy demanded the resignation of top ministers and imposed sanctions on longtime associate Timur Mindich. Critics say his response was hesitant and warn further revelations could destabilize Ukraine’s leadership during war. (Financial Times, 11.13.25)
• An independent investigation uncovered a $100 million kickback scheme involving Ukrainian officials and contractors tasked with protecting energy infrastructure. President Zelenskyy called for the resignations of his justice and energy ministers and sanctioned associates including longtime friend Timur Mindich, said to be the ringleader. Analysts warn the scandal could undermine Ukraine’s unity and weaken support from Western allies. (Foreign Policy, 11.13.25)
• A sweeping corruption probe implicating President Zelenskyy’s inner circle and longtime business partner Timur Mindich in $100 million embezzlement from the state nuclear company has led to ministerial resignations and sanctions. Zelenskyy’s credibility as an anti-corruption reformer is under fire domestically and internationally as the scandal shakes government and aid prospects. (New York Times, 11.15.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces mounting domestic turmoil as a major corruption scandal implicating close associates shatters the wartime unity that had kept political opposition quiet since Russia’s invasion. Opposition parties and anti-corruption agencies are demanding resignations and greater accountability, with poll data showing trust in Zelenskyy has dropped to around 50% from a wartime high of 90%. The scandal involves a $100 million kickback scheme at the state nuclear power company and has triggered cabinet resignations and calls for a no-confidence vote in parliament, raising concerns Zelenskyy could lose his legislative majority and complicating Ukraine’s wartime decision-making. (New York Times, 11.19.25)
• Ukraine’s top anti-corruption agency (NABU) says a major scandal involving $100 million in kickbacks from energy infrastructure contracts is being investigated despite political pressure and attempts to weaken agency independence. The scheme implicates high-level figures, including Tymur Mindich—an ex-business partner of President Zelenskyy—who has fled the country. Other suspects include former government ministers, Energoatom executives, and ex-lawmaker Andriy Derkach, now in Russia. NABU's director warned of obstruction by officials close to the president’s office and said anti-corruption efforts only continued after public outcry forced Zelenskyy to restore NABU’s independence. (RFE/RL, 11.20.25)
• Ukrainian lawmakers fired two ministers ensnared in a major corruption probe on Wednesday and called for more sweeping measures to restore faith in the country's leadership as the scandal provokes the country's biggest wartime political crisis. The investigation into an alleged $100 million plot to control contracting at the state nuclear agency has stirred fresh anger at pervasive graft, including in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's inner circle, as a fourth winter of war approaches. Parliament voted to dismiss Justice Minister German Galushchenko, who served as energy minister from 2021 until this year, and his successor, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. Both deny wrongdoing in the case. (Reuters, 11.19.25)
  • One of Ukraine's main opposition parties physically blocked lawmakers from holding a vote in parliament on Tuesday to dismiss two ministers over a corruption investigation, demanding the removal of the entire cabinet instead. Parliament was due to vote on Tuesday on the dismissal of Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and her predecessor German Galushchenko, who now serves as minister of justice. But the vote was not held as the opposition European Solidarity party blocked access to the speaker's podium, with lawmakers holding cardboard signs that bore slogans such as "What is the price of darkness?" (USNews, 11.18.25, Reuters, 11.18.25)

Other Ukraine-related news:

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told his party he will not dismiss presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak over the Energoatom corruption scandal, stating staffing the President’s Office is his responsibility. Despite pressure from political allies and opposition to oust Yermak and restore public trust, Zelenskyy signaled there would be no resignation. (Meduza, 11.20.25)
• Andriy Sinyuk, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP), resigned amid an internal investigation into possible leaks during high-profile probes, including the Energoatom corruption case linked to businessman Tymur Mindich. Sinyuk said he stepped down to avoid speculation about his influence on the inquiry’s outcome. The pretrial investigation into information leaks and the wider corruption case continue. (Korrespondent.net, 11.21.25)
• In Sumy region, Ukrainian authorities arrested a former military recruitment center chief who took bribes to help servicemen desert and evade duty by transporting them out at night using his official documents. He faces up to 12 years in prison and has been detained without bail. (Korrespondent.net, 11.20.25)
• In Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region, a soldier and an accomplice were arrested for organizing illegal nighttime crossings of the Tisza River into Hungary, charging army-eligible men $3,000 per person for the service. Prosecutors say the suspects were caught while trying to ferry three “clients” and face up to nine years in prison for people smuggling. (Korrespondent.net, 11.21.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned the U.S. against believing that President Lukashenko will break with Moscow in exchange for sanctions relief, saying he is “fooling” Washington. While supporting U.S. efforts to free political prisoners, she stressed Lukashenko remains loyal to Putin and uses prisoner releases to seek legitimacy. Tsikhanouskaya urged Europe to push for lasting democratic change in Belarus, cautioning the U.S. not to offer too many concessions for incremental gains. (Financial Times, 11.19.25)
• Azerbaijan joined the Central Asia consultative bloc—previously comprising Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—at a Tashkent summit, signaling a boost for regional cooperation on security, trade, energy, and transport, and underscoring Baku’s growing role in Eurasian energy and transit corridors. (Bloomberg, 11.16.25)
• A brawl between Kyrgyz and Chinese construction workers in northern Kyrgyzstan has exposed rising anti-Chinese sentiment, fueled by public frustration over Chinese-funded projects and the influx of foreign labor. The clash, which led to 16 detentions and one hospitalization, highlights local concerns that Chinese companies favor their own workers over hiring locals, leading to housing shortages and wage pressure. Around 25% of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign direct investment in 2024 came from China, intensifying anxieties over Beijing’s growing economic presence; experts warn that government secrecy and economic grievances risk deepening xenophobia. (RFE/RL, 11.19.25)
• Michail Chkhikvishvili, a 22-year-old Georgian national and alleged leader of the neo-Nazi “Maniac Murder Cult,” pleaded guilty in Brooklyn to soliciting hate crimes and plotting violent attacks, including urging an undercover FBI agent to poison Jewish and minority children with tainted candy while dressed as Santa. Prosecutors said his incitement led to real-world violence worldwide. He faces up to 40 years in prison. (Washington Post, 11.19.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Fareed Zakaria warns that “Ukraine is teetering” as Trump reverts to a failed strategy of pressuring Kyiv to concede more territory. Pokrovsk is near encirclement, with Zelenskyy saying Russian forces outnumber Ukrainians “8 to 1.” Exhausted Ukrainian troops face severe manpower shortages while U.S. and European support has faltered, leaving Kyiv short of ammunition, long‑range weapons and money. Russia, despite heavy losses, sustains its assault through “political will and sheer endurance.” Reports that Washington may seek new Ukrainian concessions risk emboldening Moscow. Zakaria concludes the Nobel Prize honors “peace, not surrender.” (Washington Post, 11.21.25)
• Addressing Russia and its war with Ukraine, William Burns pointed to his interactions with Putin, joking that he “has the gray hair to show for it.” “Putin believes that time is on his side. And I don't think today he's ready for a serious negotiation,” Burns said. “He’s certainly ready for a capitulation.” He contended that economic pressure on Russia, combined with aid to Ukraine, could open up a path to negotiation, but that Ukraine would have to make difficult decisions. A security guarantee, he said, would have to include a long-term commitment to Ukraine’s military to avoid a “repetition” of the war. Burns noted that Russia also has a difficult choice to make between “guns and butter,” after the country has suffered over 1 million casualties and faces daunting economic pain ahead. (The Chronicle, 11.21.25)

• ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe’s growth model is “geared towards a world that is gradually disappearing,” criticizing policymakers for years of inaction as export-dependence turns into a vulnerability. (Financial Times, 11.21.25)

   

Footnotes

1. Full texts of the purported plan drafts can be accessed here (Axios) and here (FT).
2. Driscoll's delegation originally planned to travel to Ukraine to discuss military technology and strategy before the White House asked him to help "kickstart negotiations" with Zelenskyy on behalf of U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a second U.S. official said. Driscoll didn't know until last week that he would be drafted into the role of peace envoy. (Axios, 11.20.25)
3. The idea of sending Driscoll, a Yale Law School classmate of Vice President JD Vance, to Ukraine and later to Russia came out of a conversation between Trump and Vance, according to one of the officials. (Wall Street Journal, 11.19.25)
4. A planned meeting between Zelenskyy and Witkoff had broken down earlier this week after the U.S. side said Zelenskyy hadn't shown a willingness to engage seriously with the plan. But the Ukrainian official told Axios that Zelenskyy was more conciliatory during his meeting with Driscoll. "The decision is to try to work on it jointly to make peace possible," the official said. (Axios, 11.20.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, second left, talk with U.S. Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)