The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Nov. 19, 2025

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Nov. 18 update: In the past four weeks (Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025), Russia forces gained 169 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 128 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025). In the past week, Nov. 11–18, 2025, Russia has gained 37 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, a decrease from the previous week’s gain of 59 square miles. These gains occurred as Russian drone and missile strikes killed dozens of people in Ukraine, including at least 25 people in Ternopil on Nov. 19. Meanwhile, members of the Trump administration, in consultations with Russian officials, have drafted a 28-point framework to end the war, with U.S. officials expecting a formal agreement as soon as this month, according to Axios and FT. The plan’s points fall into four categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees for Ukraine, security in Europe and future U.S. relations with Russia and Ukraine, according to Axios. The plan would require Ukraine to cede the remainder of Donbas, halve its armed forces and abandon key categories of weaponry, people briefed on the effort told FT. It would include the rollback of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, recognition of Russian as official state language in Ukraine and official status for the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Given all the proposed concessions, it should come as no surprise that Ukrainian officials see elements of the plan, which was conveyed to Kyiv this week, as “heavily tilted toward Russia.” “Part of it is absolutely unacceptable for the Ukrainians,” a Russian person familiar with the situation acknowledged in an interview with FT.

Territorial Control (figures as of Nov. 18, 2025) 

 

Russian Advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia as of Nov. 18, 2025

 

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +28,734 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).
  • Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +45,359 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)1
  • In the period of Oct. 21–Nov. 18, 2025: Russian forces gained 169 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase from the 128 square miles it gained in the previous four-week period of Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 169 square miles.
  • In past week (Nov. 11–18, 2025): Russia gained 37 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about half of Martha’s Vineyard island)—a decrease over the previous week’s (Nov. 4–11, 2025) gain of 59 square miles.
  • In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions remained at 4 square miles this week (Nov. 11–18, 2025), the same as last week.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–October 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

 

 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

  • Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.2 84,568 missing.
  • Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.3 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

  • Russia: 7,175 killed.
  • Ukraine:  14,534, including 11,782 killed in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and 2,752 killed in Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia.

Military vehicles and equipment4

  • Russia: 23,381 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,587.  
    • Aircraft: 353.
    • Naval vessels: 22.5
  • Ukraine: 10,485 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,258.
    • Aircraft: 192.
    • Naval vessels: 35.6

Citizens displaced

  • Russia:
    • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
    • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
  • Ukraine: 10.6 million displaced Ukrainians, 24% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:

Economic impact7

  • Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
    • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02378 U.S. dollars. -29% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 24.6%.

Infrastructure

  • Russia:  
    • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
    • As of early October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to Russian energy market data, according to Russian energy market data.
    • According to Reuters’ Nov. 13, 2025, estimate, however, Russia's oil processing has actually fallen just 3% this year despite Ukraine's drone attacks.
  • Ukraine:  
    • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.8
    • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
    • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.
    • Some 90% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation was destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Some 50% of all of Ukraine’s hydropower installations were damaged and 40% destroyed as of May 2025.
    • Ukraine's energy infrastructure was operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
    • In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter of 2025-2026.
    • Ukraine's overall electricity consumption has fallen by around 30% since the launch of the Russian invasion, according to an October 2025 estimate.

Popular support

  • Russia: 61% support peace negotiations.
  • Ukraine: 74% support negotiated peace (along the front line as of mid-September 2025 and backed by Western security guarantees)

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

  • Ammunition supply
  • Foreign military aid
  • Force generation
  • Military leadership
  • Training
  • Morale
  • Control of strategic locations
  • Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

 

Endnotes

  1. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Nov. 18, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 115,515 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,601 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted about 19% of Ukrainian territory.
  2. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
    4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
    5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
    6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
    7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
    8. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
    9. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, according to Ukrainian media.
    10. Some 1 million in casualties, including 240,000 KIAs, according to British spy chief Richard Moore’s September 2025 estimate.
    11. Some 1,118,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense as reported by Ukrinform in October 2025.
  3. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
    1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
    2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
    3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
    4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
  4. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.  
  5. Oryx is not updating losses of Russian warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
  6. Oryx is not updating losses of Ukrainian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. Thus, this number excludes the Ukrainian Navy's reconnaissance ship, Simferopol, which was sunken by a Russian naval drone strike in the Danube River estuary on Aug. 28, 2025.
  7. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
  8. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff.

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