5 Things to Know

1. Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies (known by their acronyms NABU and SAPO) announced on Nov. 10 that they had uncovered a $100 million kickback and money laundering scheme at the Energoatom state-owned nuclear energy company.¹ The 15-month inquiry, which has been codenamed “Midas,”² focuses on allegations of illegal payments by Energoatom contractors—typically 10–15% of contract value—to retain business.³ Suspects reportedly include Minister of Justice Herman Halushchenko, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's onetime business partner, Timur Mindich.⁴ Mindich—who is suspected of having allegedly run the kickback scheme—fled Ukraine as investigators closed in, while the two ministers resigned. With arrests already underway (prosecutors named seven suspects, with five detained), Zelenskyy—who was elected president in April 2019 on a promise to root out the pervasive graft,⁵ but who then came under strong fire at home and in the West in summer 2025 for attempting to defang the two anti-corruption agencies—called for arrests, promised a reset at Energoatom and sanctions on those involved. The scandal has fueled public outrage at home—particularly amid the ongoing blackouts caused by Russian attacks—and has increased pressure on Zelenskyy’s government to deliver lasting accountability.⁶
   1. European leaders issued warnings to Ukraine this week, saying that continued military and financial support depends on Kyiv taking decisive action against corruption. European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier called on Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption bodies and ensure clean handling of international financial support. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Zelenskyy that Europe expects Ukraine to advance anti-corruption reforms, while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stressed that Western aid hinges on stronger anti-corruption measures. Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen also emphasized that EU aid packages are conditional on Ukraine’s fight against graft. Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned that more aid could prolong the war and worsen corruption. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called for a freeze on EU funds to Ukraine, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared that “the golden illusion of Ukraine is falling apart." Asked if the disclosures have shaken EU confidence, Lithuanian Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekunas responded in blunt terms: "Maybe, but what other options do we have?” according to The Washington Post.
2. In the period of Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025, Russian forces gained 165 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 154 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period, according to the Nov. 12, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week, Russian forces have been advancing into the eastern towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which they are "very likely" to seize, according to ISW. Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT reportedly announced on Nov. 12 that Russia’s gain of 15 square miles (40 square kilometers), made in the preceding 24 hours, was the largest daily territorial gain by the Russian troops since the start of the year. DeepState also reported that Russian forces captured the following settlements in southeastern and eastern Ukraine on Nov. 7–14: Novoe, Novouspenivske, Rivnopillia, Uspenivka, Katerynivka, Novomykolaivka, Yablukove and, most recently, Stepova Novoselivka. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 170 square miles, according to the RM card.
   1. Russia launched 98 ballistic missiles into Ukraine in October, a record since observations began in May 2023, with only 17 intercepted by Ukraine, according to the card.
3. Ukrainian prosecutors estimate that 290,000 cases have been opened for desertion or absence without leave since the start of the war, highlighting the severe manpower crisis facing Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times. In October alone, nearly 20,000 such cases were recorded—the highest monthly figure this year—as Russian troops exploit gaps along thinly held lines in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where just four to seven infantrymen defend each kilometer of the 1,000 kilometer frontline, according to Financial Times. “The result [of desertions] is that the [Ukrainian] land forces are not expanding but are actually declining in numbers,’’ Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, told FT.
4. A German federal police investigation has concluded that an elite Ukrainian military unit, directed by Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, was responsible for the September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings, aiming to disrupt Russian energy revenues and Moscow’s ties with Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported. Investigators relied on surveillance photos and boat rental records, issuing European arrest warrants for three Ukrainian soldiers and four divers.⁷ The findings have triggered diplomatic friction: Poland has refused to extradite one suspect, hailing him as a hero, while Italy is considering a similar extradition request, according to WSJ. The case has intensified political divisions within Germany—where the far-right has capitalized on public anger over energy prices—and across Europe, straining unity and stirring debates about continued aid to Kyiv.
5. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation remains fully relevant and that the approaching expiration date of July 16, 2026, will not go unnoticed by either side, according to Kommersant. Lavrov indicated that Moscow and Beijing are working on extending or updating the treaty as its term nears completion, according to Kommersant. It will be interesting to see if there will be new definitions of the Russian-Chinese relationship if the signatories update the treaty rather than extend it.*

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine has accused Russia of deliberately targeting substations supplying the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants in a massive missile and drone attack that overwhelmed Ukrainian air defenses, causing widespread power outages and damaging key energy sites. Ukrainian officials warned the strikes endanger nuclear safety in Europe and called for an urgent IAEA meeting, urging countries including China and India to press Moscow to halt such actions. Energy firms reported the most severe attack on the country’s power grid since the start of the war, as Russia launched 45 missiles and 458 drones at infrastructure in five regions, with only a fraction intercepted. (Financial Times, 11.08.25)
• Ukraine’s state nuclear operator Energoatom reports that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is again at risk of a blackout. At 16:18 on Nov. 14 (local time), the plant lost its main external power line — the 750 kV ZNPP–Dniprovska link. Only one remaining external line is currently supplying the station’s essential needs. (Strana.ua, 11.14.25)
• On the night of Nov. 13, Ukraine reportedly launched about eight drones toward Russia’s Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant. All drones were shot down, but debris damaged a switchgear unit. Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev said the plant continues to operate normally. (Kommersant, 11.14.25)
• Russian and IAEA delegations, led by Rosatom’s Alexey Likhachev and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, held consultations in Kaliningrad on the safety situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Discussions focused on restoring external power, nuclear safety, rotations, and recent repairs to high-voltage lines, with both sides addressing ongoing risks amid continued hostilities. (Rosatom, 11.14.25)
• Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, through its TVEL fuel division, signed a memorandum of intent with Kazakhstan’s National Nuclear Center (NNC) to jointly develop a national radioactive waste management strategy for Kazakhstan. The agreement covers scientific, technical, and commercial cooperation, including assistance from Russian experts in drafting policy and training local specialists, as well as exchanging best practices for decommissioning hazardous facilities and remediating contaminated areas. (Rosatom, 11.06.25)
• Rosatom’s fuel division (TVEL) has completed delivery of nuclear fuel to the Dalat Research Reactor in Vietnam, with fuel produced at the Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant. The shipment will support reliable operation of the Soviet-designed reactor at the Dalat Institute of Nuclear Research through the 2030s. (Rosatom, 11.11.25)
• Around 300 workers from subcontractor Orgenergostroy staged a protest in Dimitrovgrad, Russia’s Ulyanovsk region, over more than two months of unpaid wages during the construction of Russia’s unique MBIR multipurpose fast neutron research reactor. Workers halted work and appealed for intervention from authorities after previous complaints brought no results, citing their rights under Russian labor law. Rosatom said the MBIR project remains “under daily control,” emphasized all official obligations were met, and pledged to take necessary measures to support workers and maintain the project team. (Kommersant, 11.07.25)
• The reactor pressure vessel for Unit 4 of Turkey’s Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, built by Russia’s Rosatom, was delivered to the construction site in Mersin on Nov. 12, 2025. (Rosatom, 11.12.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean sappers have reportedly begun demining operations in Russia’s Kursk region, which saw heavy fighting with Ukrainian forces. Russian officials thanked North Korean troops for their “heroic help,” saying they work after special training and are removing U.S.- and Finnish-made mines and shells. South Korean intelligence estimates up to 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran’s silence over damage it incurred at sites bombed by Israel and the U.S. is fueling concern about the state and location of the Islamic Republic’s near-bomb-grade uranium inventory, according to a new report issued by the United Nations nuclear watchdog. (Bloomberg, 11.12.25)
• Iran is ignoring international calls to cooperate with the United Nations atomic watchdog and restart nuclear talks with the U.S., diplomats said, months into a tense stand off following Israeli-led airstrikes on the Islamic Republic. (Bloomberg, 11.14.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Almost 400 people have been killed in Ukrainian drone strikes across Russia since January, the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia reported on Nov. 12, citing a senior Foreign Ministry official. (MT/AFP, 11.12.25)
• Geolocated footage published on Nov. 13 shows the aftermath of a Russian drone strike against civilians traveling along the P-79 Kupyansk-Borova highway north of Novoplatonivka (north of Borova). The Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on Nov. 13 that the strike murdered three civilians and injured a fourth. (ISW, 11.13.25)
• The Trump administration is preparing to deport around 80 Ukrainians with final removal orders for violating U.S. immigration laws, according to the Ukrainian embassy in Washington. This would be the highest number in years—53 Ukrainians were deported from the U.S. in the 2024 fiscal year. Ukrainian officials say they will find "good use" for those deported. (Washington Post, 11.14.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to limit the growing number of young Ukrainian men arriving in Germany, urging they stay and serve in Ukraine instead. The request comes as arrivals surged tenfold after Ukraine eased exit rules for men aged 18–22, prompting German officials to call for tighter entry restrictions. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25) Is Zelenskyy betting the war will be over by the time today’s 18-22 year olds come of mobilization age at 25?
• Ukraine received a €5.9 billion tranche from the EU for infrastructure recovery and economic support, including €4.1 billion from ERA Loans (the final part of a €18 billion program funded by frozen Russian assets profits) and €1.8 billion from Ukraine Facility. Officials say this allows more domestic resources to be directed toward defense. (Korrespondent.net, 11.13.25)
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union (EU) provided Ukraine with an additional 6 billion euros (roughly $7 billion) in direct budget assistance on Nov. 13. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on Nov. 13 that Ukraine received the final tranche of funding, worth 4.1 billion euros (roughly $4.8 billion), from the interest on seized Russian assets through the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) framework and 1.8 billion euros (roughly $2 billion) of funding through the EU’s Ukraine Facility program. (ISW, 11.13.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the week of Nov. 4–11, 2025, Russia gained 59 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, an increase over the previous week’s gain of 34 square miles. In the past four weeks (Oct. 14–Nov. 11, 2025), Russian forces gained 165 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 154 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 16–Oct. 14, 2025), according to the Nov. 12, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 170 square miles. As of Nov. 11, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory—an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio, according to the card. (RM, 11.12.25)
• Russia launched 98 ballistic missiles into Ukraine in October, a record since observations began in May 2023, with only 17 intercepted by Ukraine, according to the Nov. 12, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 11.12.25)
• Over 150 missiles and more than 2,000 drones were launched by Russia against Ukraine’s energy system during October and early November, according to Ukrenergo. (Strana.ua, 11.14.25) 

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• On Nov. 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Bila Hora, Pleshchiyivka and Kozatske. (RM, 11.14.25)
• Russian forces continued their advance in the Pokrovsk area, making gains in northeastern and eastern Pokrovsk as well as southern Myrnohrad and north of Myrnohrad, according to new geolocated footage. Russian milbloggers claim that troops have reached multiple outskirts of Pokrovsk, begun using vehicles for logistics in southern areas, and are attempting to supply the front lines with trucks and motorcycles for the first time. While Russian units briefly raised a flag atop the Pokrovsk City Council building, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack, recapturing and clearing the building and its observation post. (ISW, 11.07.25)

Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025

• On Nov. 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured  Uspenivka and advanced near Stepova Novoselivka, Zlahoda, Solodke and Okhotnyche. (RM, 11.14.25)
• A massive overnight Russian missile and drone barrage—using over 450 drones and 45 missiles—struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure in at least 25 regions, killing at least four people and forcing widespread emergency power outages in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kremenchuk. The attacks, which overwhelmed air defenses and caused the largest shutdown at state producer Centrenergo since the start of the invasion, disabled major power plants, damaged natural gas facilities, and aggravated already severe energy shortages as Ukraine faces the onset of winter. (New York Times, 11.08.25, MT/AFP, 11.08.25, Bloomberg, 11.08.25)

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025

• On Nov. 9, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Seredne, Mayske, Kotlyne and Krasnohirske. (RM, 11.14.25)
• Ukrainian sources say Russian troops are present in most areas of Pokrovsk but have not encircled the town. (ISW, 11.09.25)
• Kyiv and many Ukrainian regions faced extensive power cuts and outages as crews struggled to repair infrastructure battered by Russian air attacks. Power was reduced in most regions for eight to 16 hours on Nov. 9, state energy provider Ukrenergo said, adding that consumption restrictions were scheduled for Nov. 10 as well. (RFE/RL, 11.09.25)
• A Ukrainian court ordered a battalion commander to be held in custody after a Russian air strike hit troops at a ceremonial gathering, killing at least 19 people. The incident, which occurred on Nov. 1, is one of several in recent years where officers have held gatherings or ceremonies that have then been targeted by Russia. (RFE/RL, 11.09.25)

Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

• On Nov. 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces Katerynivka and Novomykolaivka, and advanced near Oleksandro-Kalynove, Promin, Solodke, Nove and Yablukove.  (RM, 11.14.25)
• Russian media outlet News-ZP claimed that Russia’s "Vostok" group of forces are advancing in the Zaporizhzhia region, claiming control of the villages of Uspenivka, Rybne, Sladke, after breaking through Ukrainian defenses northeast of Huliaipole. (RM 11.10.25)
• Fierce fighting continues in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area as Ukrainian forces counterattack within Pokrovsk and recently cleared Rodynske to bolster the northern flank, slowing Russian gains in the north and west of the city. However, Russian advances in the east and south, coupled with fire control over Ukrainian supply routes, raise the risk of encirclement—amid reports that 170,000 Russian troops are committed to the sector, suffering 25,000 casualties in October alone, and that nearly 37% of all frontline combat engagements occurred here on Nov. 9–10. (ISW, 11.10.25)
• Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi described Pokrovsk in the Donetsk oblast as the epicenter of Russia’s latest offensive, with Moscow concentrating about 150,000 troops—out of 700,000 in Ukraine—in an attempt to encircle and capture the city. (NY Post, 11.10.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

• On Nov. 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Nove and Novouspenske, and advanced in Pokrovsk, near Chunyshyne, Solodke, Rivnopillia and Yablukove. Also on that day, ISW reported that Russian forces have captured Okhotnyche, northeast of Hulyaipole in the Zaporzhie oblast, forcing Ukrainian withdrawals from Uspenivka, Novomykolaivka, and Nove. (RM, 11.14.25)
• Ukrainian forces defending Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad are facing severe manpower shortages, leaving the cities at risk as Russian troops advance and exploit gaps in thinly held lines. Each kilometer of the 1,000 kilometer frontline is guarded by just four to seven Ukrainian infantrymen on average, and nearly 20,000 cases for absence without leave and desertion were opened in October—the highest monthly figure this year. Kyiv’s difficulty recruiting and retaining soldiers has forced commanders to make tough choices, and new recruitment efforts for men aged 18-24 and short-term contracts have yet to close the gap. Analysts warn Pokrovsk could face a chaotic retreat similar to those seen in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. (Financial Times, 11.11.25)
  • “The result [of desertions] is that the land forces are not expanding but are actually declining in numbers,’’ said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group monitoring the conflict. (Financial Times, 11.11.25)
  • Ukraine is mobilizing about 30,000 people per month, but Zelenskyy said both the military and international partners are requesting higher numbers. Zelenskyy stressed the need to balance mobilization with societal needs, noting partners don’t face Ukraine’s battlefield realities, and recruitment is based on military requests. (RBC.ua, 11.13.25)
  • Ukraine faces a serious draft evasion problem, highlighted by the Danube town of Vylkove where draft-age men have nearly disappeared—some hiding at home, others risking perilous escapes to Romania or Moldova to avoid military service. Meanwhile, women have stepped into many traditionally male roles, running city services, fishing, and other local jobs amid the ongoing war. (New York Times, 11.10.25)
• Ukrainian prosecutors say they have opened 290,000 cases for desertion or for being absent without leave. (New York Times, 11.10.25)
  • In Ukraine's Chernivtsi region, authorities arrested a border guard and a civilian for organizing illegal crossings of draft-eligible men (“evaders”) into Romania. Three conscripts, two organizers and two accomplices were detained. The operation charged up to €10,000 per person, and those responsible face up to nine years in prison and asset confiscation. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
• Russian forces are very likely to eventually seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but the campaign will be prolonged and costlier because Russia’s military command continues to divide resources across multiple active fronts rather than concentrating forces in this sector. Ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, along with the desire to signal progress everywhere, have slowed Russia’s advance on Pokrovsk and may provide Ukraine chances to regroup or counterattack elsewhere. (ISW, 11.11.25)
• Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov Oblast and the Orsknefteorgsintez Refinery in Orenburg Oblast overnight on Nov. 10-11. The Saratov refinery, struck for the fourth time in a month, and the Orsk facility both process over 20 petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel. (ISW, 11.11.25)
• Russia’s FSB has accused investigative journalist Christo Grozev and the outlet Bellingcat of involvement in an alleged Ukrainian-British plot to recruit Russian pilots to hijack a MiG-31 fighter jet, offering millions of dollars for the aircraft and a plan to deliver it armed with a Kinzhal missile to NATO territory in Romania. (Meduza, 11.11.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

• On Nov. 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Shakhove. The Russian forces captured Rivnopillia and Yablukove, and advanced near Volodymyrivka, Kotlyne and Dachne. (RM, 11.14.25)
• Russian forces achieved their largest daily territorial gain of the year on Nov. 12, seizing Novoe and Novouspenivske⁸ in the Zaporizhzhia region and advancing in urban areas of Pokrovsk, Donetsk oblast, expanding their control by 40.06 square kilometers (15.5 square miles)—several times the recent daily average. In southern Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian troops withdrew from several settlements, including Rivnopillia and parts of Solodke, as Russian pressure mounted along the front; Ukrainian officials cited the need to preserve dwindling personnel amidst defending gaps. The loss of Rivnopillia opens space for possible Russian advances toward Huliaipole from the north, although there are currently insufficient Russian resources for a major offensive against the city. Ukrainian military sources warn that, if the current trend continues, key cities including Huliaipole, Orikhiv and even the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia may come under direct threat. (DeepState, 11.12.25; Korrespondent.net, 11.12.25)
  • Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces confirmed on Nov. 12 that Ukrainian troops withdrew from Rivnopillia in Zaporizhzhia. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.12.25)
• On Nov. 12, Russia said its forces continue to make gains around Pokrovsk as Moscow intensifies efforts to penetrate the battered Ukrainian city with local officials calling the situation difficult. Russia's Defense Ministry said that its forces had pushed Ukrainian troops out of Sukhyi Yar, which lies just to the south of Pokrovsk, which is key for the Kremlin's strategy of finding a stronghold to drive north toward the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the Donetsk region -- Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Pokrovsk, a city of about 7,000 inhabitants -- down from more than 60,000 prewar -- holds crucial road and rail junctions and has been under threat of encirclement by Russian forces for most of the year. (RFE/RL, 11.12.25)
• Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on Nov. 12 that Ukrainian forces continue to defend Pokrovsk, denying any claims that Russian troops control the city or have encircled Ukrainian defenses. Syrskyi emphasized the importance of coordinated actions among military units in stabilizing the situation and said he visited the front to plan further operations with local commanders. (RBC.ua, 11.12.25)
• The situation near Hulyaipole has significantly worsened for Ukraine, as Russian forces exploit poor weather and infiltrate between positions, seizing three settlements. Ukrainian troops withdrew from areas near Novouspenivske and Nove⁹ after heavy Russian strikes, and fighting continues for Rivnopillya, Yablukove, and Solodke. Russia is likely trying to encircle Hulyaipole from the northeast using infiltration tactics. (ISW, 11.12.25)
• Russian advances near Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole and Kupyansk are enabled by sustained interdiction campaigns, where elite Russian drone, artillery and air units target Ukrainian supply lines, drone operators and artillery crews. This strategy degrades Ukrainian defenses and opens gaps for infiltration. Ukraine will need new technological and tactical responses to counter these evolving Russian tactics. (ISW, 11.12.25)
• Russian forces are close to collapsing the Ukrainian pocket around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, with recent advances reported on several fronts. Ukrainians have withdrawn in some areas but maintain some positions and supply lines. The ultimate impact of any Russian capture will depend on how an eventual Ukrainian withdrawal is managed. (ISW, 11.12.25)
• On the night of Nov. 12, Russian forces launched 121 attack drones at Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses shooting down or suppressing 90 drones, including roughly 70 Shahed models. However, 31 drones hit targets across 19 locations, with additional drone debris landing elsewhere. The attack was countered by Ukraine’s air force, missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.12.25) 

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

• On Nov. 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the enemy near Shakhove. The Russian forces occupied Rivnopillia and Yablukove, and advanced near Volodymyrivka, Kotlyne and Dachne, according to DeepState. (RM, 13.14.25)
• On Nov. 13, Russian forces were intensifying offensives near Zaporizhzhia’s Hulyaipole and Velykomykhailivka, exploiting poor weather and targeting Ukrainian supply lines (GLOCs) with air interdiction and infiltration tactics. Russian troops have advanced close to Hulyaipole, seizing several nearby villages and raising their flag in Danylivka. Up to nine Russian brigades and regiments are concentrated along this front, with further reinforcements expected. The Ukrainian military has withdrawn from several positions in the area. (ISW, 11.13.25)
• Zelenskyy said decisions about a potential withdrawal from Pokrovsk are up to military commanders on the ground, stressing that Ukrainian soldiers should not die for “ruins.” He acknowledged the situation in Pokrovsk remains very difficult and accused Russia of seeking victory there to strengthen its position in possible talks with the U.S., but reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to defending the east. (RBC.ua, 11.13.25)
  • Zelenskyy visited the front lines in Zaporizhzhia, meeting with the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade and receiving a briefing on the situation at the Orikhiv direction. Zelenskyy discussed strengthening defenses, equipment needs, electronic warfare systems and expanding the brigade’s use of ground robotic systems for casualty evacuation. He also awarded state honors to soldiers for their service. (Korrespondent.net, 11.13.25)
  • Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi denied claims that Russian forces have encircled Pokrovsk, though he acknowledged continued Russian advances and said supply routes remain open. Zelenskyy suggested a tactical withdrawal is possible to protect troops, while Ukrainian officials accused Russia of spreading encirclement claims as part of an information campaign to pressure the West. Open-source maps show Russian advances from multiple directions, but full encirclement has not been confirmed. (The Moscow Times, 11.13.25)
  • With parts of Pokrovsk under Russian control and Myrnohrad nearly encircled, Ukraine faces the difficult choice of whether to keep holding out to inflict Russian losses or pull back to save troops. Military analysts warn Kyiv may repeat past mistakes by staying too long, risking encirclement and high casualties as seen in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. (New York Times, 11.13.25)
• After two years of relative freedom, Ukraine’s frontline drone operators are now prime targets for Rubikon, an elite Russian unit specializing in the detection and elimination of Ukrainian drone crews using advanced surveillance tools and hunter drones. Rubikon, reportedly staffed by around 5,000 personnel and heavily resourced, has shifted the balance along the Donetsk front—including near embattled Pokrovsk—forcing Ukraine to adapt its decentralized drone strategy to counter Russia’s increasingly organized and lethal approach. (Financial Times, 11.13.25)
• On the night of Nov. 13, Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 138 attack drones—including about 90 Shaheds—against Ukraine. Air defenses shot down or suppressed 102 drones, while 36 struck ten locations across the north, east and south. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.13.25)
• On Nov. 13, Ukrainian forces used domestically developed FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles, long-range drones and other rockets to strike dozens of targets in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories overnight. The attacks reportedly hit an oil terminal and airfield in Crimea, a fuel depot and command posts in occupied Zaporizhzhia, the Oryol Thermal Power Plant 173 km inside Russia, and likely damaged an oil refinery in Tatarstan, reflecting Ukraine's expanding deep-strike capabilities. Damage assessments are ongoing. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.13.25, ISW, 11.13.25)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

• On Nov. 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Stepova Novoselivka and also advanced near Solodke. (RM, 11.14.25)
• Russian air strikes pounded Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine overnight, killing several people and wounding dozens of others -- including a pregnant woman. Zelenskyy said Russian forces used 430 drones and 18 missiles in the attack on Nov. 14, making it one of its biggest attacks in recent months. Targets in Sumy, Odesa and Kharkiv were also hit, he added. According to Kyiv military administration head Tymur Tkachenko, six people were killed and at least 35 injured, two of whom were children. Zelenskyy renewed calls for Western air defense support as Russia continues relentless aerial strikes. (RFE/RL, 11.14.25, New York Times, 11.14.25)¹⁰
  • Of 19 missiles fired at Kyiv, Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 14, but 30 residential buildings and the city’s heating system were damaged. (Financial Times, 11.14.25)
  • On the night of Nov. 14, the Azerbaijani Embassy in Kyiv was struck by missile debris during the Russian aerial attack on Kyiv. Recent footage shows significant damage to the Azerbaijan embassy in Kyiv as a result of the attack. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25, Status-6 X Account, 11.14.25)
• On Nov. 14, Russia launched 176 assaults on the Ukrainian front—an increase over previous days—including 64 attacks around Pokrovsk and heavy fighting in at least 12 areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported ongoing battles across the east and south, with Russia’s daily personnel losses now exceeding 1,100 killed or wounded. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)
• Ukrainian forces carried out an attack on a major Russian Black Sea port overnight, prompting a state of emergency. Zelenskyy confirmed the Ukrainian attack using long-range Neptune cruise missiles into Russian territory, calling it an “entirely just” response to Russia’s “ongoing terror.” While Ukrainian air defenses “neutralized” 14 Russian missiles, he said the Kremlin was taking strikes against civilian targets. (Bloomberg, 11.14.25)
  • Oil deliveries to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended after Ukrainian strikes damaged key energy infrastructure in one of the most disruptive overnight attacks on the Krasnodar region in recent months, Reuters reported Nov. 14. (MT/AFP, 11.14.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025

•  The U.S. government shutdown has reportedly delayed over $5 billion of U.S. weapons exports to NATO allies and Ukraine, including HIMARS, AMRAAM missiles and Aegis systems, according to Axios. The shutdown has also slowed congressional approvals and licensing for new arms deals, impacting both direct U.S. sales and NATO procurement for Ukraine. (ISW, 11.09.25)
• Italy’s coalition government is increasingly divided over Ukraine, with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and his League party pushing for negotiations with Russia, opposing further military involvement, and tapping into public war fatigue, while Prime Minister Meloni’s Brothers of Italy maintains pro-Ukraine support. Despite internal tensions and symbolic gestures favoring dialogue with Moscow, the League still backs Ukraine aid, and the coalition remains unified in opposing direct Italian military action. (The Economist, 11.09.25)

Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

• Zelenskyy has urgently requested 25 Patriot air defense systems from the U.S. and proposed European allies send their own, citing crippling Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and overstretched defenses. With the U.S. halting arms deliveries under Trump and Germany providing some Patriots, Europe is now Ukraine’s main source of military aid as Russian offensives intensify, particularly around Pokrovsk. (Washington Post, 11.10.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

• Danish firms MyDefence and Weibel Scientific are seeing soaring demand for anti-drone technology as NATO scrambles to counter Russian drone threats. MyDefence has sent over 2,000 wearable detectors to Ukraine and is now getting orders from airports and European infrastructure after mysterious drone flyovers. Weibel’s radar systems, once for aerospace, are now used in drone detection at sites like Copenhagen Airport. NATO is also deploying new U.S. anti-drone systems on its eastern flank amid calls for a “drone wall.” (AP News, 11.12.25)

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

• Ukraine will receive a new $500 million U.S. weapons package funded by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden under NATO's PURL initiative, which aims to speed up delivery of critical military equipment and ammunition as winter approaches. The funds are pooled by NATO and the U.S. handles direct shipments according to Ukraine’s urgent needs. (Korrespondent.net, 11.13.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

• Ukraine has added Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev to its list of sanctioned people accused of crimes against the country. (MT/AFP, 11.10.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

• Citi’s Russian subsidiary (Citibank) will be sold to Renaissance Capital, a financial group formerly owned until 2024 by billionaire and former presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov, who won 8% of the vote in the 2012 election. The deal was authorized on Nov. 12 by President Vladimir Putin, with the sale amount not disclosed in the official decree. (The Moscow Times, 11.12.25)
• Canada announced new sanctions on Russia Nov. 12, affecting drone makers and 100 vessels from the country’s “shadow fleet.” Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and her Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha‎, made the announcement at the Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Ontario. Canada also sanctioned entities that supply cyber infrastructure to Russia as well as those related to liquefied natural gas. (Bloomberg, 11.12.25)

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

• EU finance ministers are debating a €140 billion reparations loan for Ukraine, backed by profits from Russian assets frozen in Euroclear. While some countries, like Belgium and Hungary, have concerns about risk-sharing and legal exposure, momentum is building, with French and German finance ministers calling it “technically feasible, legally desirable, and politically sound.” (Financial Times, 11.13.25)
  • Zelenskyy implored European Union allies to overcome their divisions on the use of frozen Russian assets, saying fresh funding is critical for his war-battered economy to stay in the fight against Moscow. (Bloomberg, 11.13.25)
• U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. has nearly exhausted options for new sanctions against Russia, noting that most major targets, like top oil companies, are already sanctioned. He said further pressure could come from European partners targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Rubio also emphasized ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. (RBC.ua, 11.13.25)
• From Giorgio Armani and Calvin Klein to Amazon.com and Sheraton, some of the world’s best-known brands are falling prey to trademark poachers in Russia, a risk that’s becoming more acute as the country’s economic isolation deepens. More than 300 foreign companies have found their trademarks under legal threat in Russia since the start of 2024, according to a Bloomberg Businessweek analysis of court documents. (Bloomberg, 11.13.25)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

• Zelenskyy recently hinted the European Union is working on another sanctions package on Russia, less than a month after agreeing on a new raft of measures aimed at hitting the Kremlin over the full-scale invasion of its neighbor (RFE/RL, 11.14.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that negotiations on a Ukraine settlement remain stalled, citing lack of confirmation from Washington on the Anchorage summit agreements and accusing Brussels and London of pressuring the U.S. to favor a military solution over diplomacy. Lavrov reiterated Russia’s uncompromising positions regarding territorial claims over Crimea, Donbas and Novorossiya, warned against the confiscation of Russian assets to aid Kyiv, and dismissed the possibility of any settlement that does not address Russia’s stated security concerns. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 11.09.25)

Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

• The Kremlin continues to maintain maximalist war aims, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterating that Moscow will only end the conflict when its original goals are achieved—these include regime change in Kyiv, Ukrainian neutrality, and reversal of NATO’s eastward expansion—signaling no willingness to negotiate a settlement short of Ukrainian capitulation. (ISW, 11.10.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

• Finland’s former president Sauli Niinistö has called on the European Union to open direct channels of communication with Putin to press for an end to the war in Ukraine. “I still see something rather absurd in the situation where Europeans declare that they won’t talk to the war criminal Putin, yet Trump talks to him and then we go and listen to find out what they discussed,” Niinistö said in comments to the Finnish state broadcaster Yle on Nov. 10. (MT/AFP, 11.11.25)
• Levada Center polling in October 2025 shows that 74% of Russians support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine (including 43% “definitely support” and 31% “mostly support”), while 16% do not support the military operation. Support for starting peace talks remains steady, with 61% favoring negotiations to end hostilities (down from 62% in September). Meanwhile, 30% believe fighting should continue. (Levada, 11.11.25)

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump will only agree to another meeting with Putin if there is a significant opportunity to help end the war in Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Nov. 12. “There was agreement on both sides that the next time our presidents meet there has to be a concrete result — we have to know going in that we have a real chance to get something positive coming out,” Rubio told reporters after the Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Ontario, Canada. “We’d love to see that happen, we’d love to see the war end, but we can’t just continue to have meetings for the sake of meetings,” Rubio added. (Bloomberg, 11.12.25)
• The G7 and EU foreign ministers, meeting in Canada, reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stressed that any future negotiations with Russia should start from the current front line. The statement also condemned Russian military support from North Korea and Iran, and discussed using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine’s recovery. (RBC.ua, 11.13.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is ready for a U.S.-Russia summit in Budapest, pending “well-prepared outcomes” from prior talks, though no date is set and Washington has not confirmed any summit plans. (RBC.ua, 11.13.25)
• Recent intelligence assessments show Putin has no intention of reaching a peace deal with Ukraine, Britain’s former spy chief said, confirming a view underpinning a harder line from the U.S. and its allies. Richard Moore, who stepped down as head of MI6 in September, said that the Russian president would need more convincing to reach an agreement of the sort sought by Trump. His assessment backs up reports last month that U.S. intelligence also saw Putin continuing his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “Under current conditions — I’m basing this on access I had a few weeks ago to our understanding of the intelligence — he’s not ready to do a deal,” Moore told Mishal Husain. “For me, the answer to that is he needs to be put under more pressure, so he is prepared to do a deal.” (Bloomberg, 11.13.25)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

• UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel warned that the Kremlin may nationalize its Russian subsidiary, risking a loss of up to €3.8 billion in equity, as sanctions and EU plans to seize frozen Russian assets heighten the threat. Orcel said Moscow requires foreign banks to sell at a steep discount and that finding a suitable buyer is unlikely. UniCredit and a few other EU banks are trying to wind down Russian operations amid growing compliance risks. (Financial Times, 11.14.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• British national Howard Phillips was sentenced to seven years in prison after being convicted of attempting to spy for Russia by passing information about former UK defense secretary Grant Shapps to individuals he believed were Russian agents—who were in fact undercover British intelligence officers. Prosecutors said Phillips, 65, was motivated by a desire for money and “dreamed about being like James Bond.” The offenses occurred between late 2023 and May 2024 while Shapps was in office. (Boston Globe, 11.08.25)

Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

• Belgium temporarily suspended air traffic at Liège Airport and reported drone sightings over the Doel Nuclear Power Plant and other sensitive sites on Nov. 9. While the drones did not impact plant operations, these incidents are the latest in a series of aerial incursions across Europe that Belgian officials—echoed by Defense Minister Theo Francken—attribute to Russia’s campaign to destabilize Europe and threaten NATO support for Ukraine. The Russian Embassy denied involvement. (ISW, 11.10.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

• Europe is experiencing a surge in suspected Russian hybrid attacks—including daily drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation—putting the continent in a “gray zone” between peace and war, according to German officials and security experts. (Wall Street Journal, 11.11.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

• UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell attempted to open a back channel to Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year, amid European concerns that a Trump White House could sideline British and EU interests over Ukraine. Powell called Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov in an effort to clarify Europe’s stance, but the Kremlin confirmed the one-off contact “did not go well” and that no new channel was established. The move, not coordinated with G7 partners, reflects anxiety that the U.S. is dominating diplomatic discussions with Russia. (Financial Times, 11.12.25)
  • Kremlin said Britain attempted to open a back channel to resume dialogue -- first reported by the Financial Times -- over ending Europe's largest and deadliest conflict since World War II. "There were indeed contacts," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, adding that the talks collapsed because "there was a lack of any intention or desire to listen to our position." "Given the impossibility of exchanging views, the mutual dialogue has not developed," he said, giving no details on when the communication took place. (RFE/RL, 11.12.25)
• Officials reported unidentified drone flights over sensitive sites in France and balloon incursions from Belarus into Lithuania. These incidents are seen as part of Russia’s intensifying “Phase Zero” campaign to destabilize Europe and undermine NATO cohesion, though they do not indicate an imminent attack. (ISW, 11.12.25)

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

• A U.S. B-52H Stratofortress strategic bomber conducted simulated strike drills at a Finnish range just 50 km from Russia’s border, escorted by Finnish and British fighter jets. The exercise, part of broader U.S. and NATO maneuvers in northern Europe, included NATO surveillance aircraft and follows the recent deployment of U.S. bombers to Spain for joint exercises with European allies. (Korrespondent.net, 11.13.25)
• Germany has finalized plans to send all 18-year-old men a mandatory health questionnaire in 2026 to identify potential military recruits as it seeks to expand the Bundeswehr from 182,000 to 260,000 troops by 2035, amid heightened concerns over Russian aggression. If voluntary enlistment falls short, lawmakers may consider introducing a lottery-based conscription. (Financial Times, 11.13.25)

Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

• The U.S. Coast Guard reported tracking Russian spy ship Kareliya about 15 miles south of Oahu, Hawaii, on Oct. 29—just outside U.S. territorial waters. The Coast Guard conducted safe, professional monitoring using patrol aircraft and a small vessel. (The Moscow Times, 11.14.25)
• Canadian intelligence reports that Russia and China are intensifying espionage in the Arctic, targeting both government and private sector data. CSIS disrupted Russian attempts to illegally acquire Canadian goods and technology for the war in Ukraine, warning that hostile powers are increasingly bold in the region. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Lavrov stated that the Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation remains fully relevant and that the approaching expiration date of July 16, 2026, will not go unnoticed by either side. Lavrov indicated that Moscow and Beijing are working on extending or updating the treaty as its term nears completion. (Kommersant, 11.12.25)
• Russia plans to offer its first yuan-denominated government bonds early next month, underscoring efforts to retool its sanctions-hit economy and help cover a record fiscal shortfall this year. The Finance Ministry will start accepting investors’ offers on Dec. 2 for two series of domestic, fixed-coupon bonds in the Chinese currency, with maturities ranging from three to seven years and a coupon period of 182 days, the ministry said in a statement Wednesday. (Bloomberg, 11.12.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On Nov. 5, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko reiterated Moscow’s long-standing position that any talks on extending the New START Treaty are impossible without the participation of the UK and France. (“Bulletin 19 (171) 2025,” Tayana Stanovaya, R. Politik, 11,10.25.)

Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025

• Lavrov announced that work is under way to implement Putin’s order to prepare proposals for a possible Russian nuclear test, following instructions issued at a Security Council meeting on Nov. 5. Lavrov stated that the order is being implemented and the public will be informed of any results. (Reuters, 11.08.25)

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025

• Lavrov announced that Russia will unilaterally adhere to New START nuclear arms limitations for one additional year from February 5, 2026—conditional on U.S. reciprocity—but reported receiving no substantive response from Washington to date. He indicated Moscow does not see the need for in-depth negotiations over the offer but remains open to dialogue if the U.S. has questions, and affirmed that Russia is ready for any developments regarding the future of nuclear arms control. (MID, 11.09.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

• Russia is ready to continue observing numerical limits outlined in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty for another year if the United States does the same, Lavrov said Tuesday. Set to expire in February 2026, the New START Treaty was largely thought to be abandoned after Russia suspended participation without withdrawing from it in 2023. Putin announced in September that he was prepared to adhere to the treaty’s caps of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 800 delivery systems for an additional year. “We’ve repeatedly said that this proposal is our unilateral gesture of goodwill. For the U.S. to support our approach, no negotiations or consultations are necessary,” Lavrov told media outlets in an interview. “All that’s required is for Washington to simply state that it won’t increase the quantitative levels set by [New START] for one year,” he said in comments that were also published on the Foreign Ministry website. (MT/AFP, 11.11.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

• Putin announced that the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system will enter “experimental combat duty” in 2025, with deployment at the Uzhur missile division expected by year’s end. The program, delayed from its original timeline, has seen only one successful flight test (April 2022) amid setbacks including a test silo explosion in 2024. “Experimental combat duty” means the missile may be placed in a silo and operated by the military while still under development, possibly without additional test launches, raising questions about its combat readiness. (RussianForces.org, 11.12.25)
• Top energy and nuclear officials in the Trump administration are planning to meet with the White House and National Security Council in the coming days to dissuade Trump from resuming testing of the nation’s nuclear weapons, sources told CNN. (CNN, 11.14.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa called the Assad regime's presence in Russia a “troublesome issue” for Damascus but said Syria needs pragmatic ties with Moscow due to its UN Security Council role and strategic interests. Sharaa noted a decade-long war against Russia but said Syria aims to eventually seek Assad’s extradition. (Washington Post, 11.13.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Thai police arrested a 35-year-old suspected Russian hacker in Phuket at the request of the FBI, alleging involvement in cyberattacks on U.S. and European government systems. The suspect, reportedly Alexei Lukashev—a former GRU officer linked to the APT28 (Fancy Bear) group wanted by the FBI for election interference—had $432,000 in crypto seized. Lukashev was placed under UK sanctions in July 2025 and awaits possible extradition to the U.S. (Mediazona, 11.13.25)
• Anthropic revealed that Chinese state-sponsored hackers used its AI tool, Claude Code, to conduct a mostly automated cyberattack on tech companies and government agencies, with AI handling up to 90% of the hacking work. The incident marks a rapid escalation in the use of AI for cybercrime, echoing similar warnings and reports by Microsoft and OpenAI about rising AI-enabled cyberattacks linked to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. (New York Times, 11.14.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• A German federal police investigation has concluded that an elite Ukrainian military unit, directed by then-commander Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, was responsible for the September 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombings, aiming to disrupt Russian energy revenues and Moscow’s ties with Germany. Investigators relied on surveillance photos and boat rental records, issuing European arrest warrants for three Ukrainian soldiers and four divers. The findings have triggered diplomatic friction: Poland has refused to extradite one suspect, hailing him as a hero, while Italy is considering a similar extradition request. The case has intensified political divisions within Germany—where the far-right has capitalized on public anger over energy prices—and across Europe, straining unity and stirring debates about continued aid to Kyiv. Critics argue the backlash has grown because of the investigation’s effectiveness in building a strong case against Ukraine, increasing scrutiny on Germany’s support for Ukraine and the broader European response. (Wall Street Journal, 11.10.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.10.25)
• Russia's oil processing has fallen just 3% this year despite Ukraine's biggest drone attacks to date as refineries averted a steep decline in fuel production by leveraging spare capacity to offset damage from the strikes, sources said and data showed. (Reuters, 11.13.25)
• The U.S. Treasury granted Lukoil an extension to complete certain transactions related to selling its international assets and operating retail fuel stations—until December 13, three weeks after new sanctions take effect on November 21. Lukoil’s operations in Bulgaria are exempt from sanctions until April 29, 2026. (Bloomberg, Meduza, 11.14.25)
• U.S. private equity firm Carlyle is considering a bid for Lukoil’s foreign assets, valued at $22 billion, after the U.S. blocked their sale to Swiss trader Gunvor due to sanctions. Carlyle would need a U.S. license to proceed and is in early discussions. Lukoil’s global portfolio includes refineries in Europe, oilfields in multiple countries, and retail stations worldwide. (Reuters, 11.13.25)
• $15.1 billion is the approximate asset value Lukoil stands to lose after the U.S. blocked the sale of its foreign holdings. (Meduza, 11.13.25)
• The oil trading business of Russia’s Lukoil PJSC began shedding staff all over the world—with just days to go until sanctions on the Moscow-based energy giant are due to kick in. In Geneva, Dubai and Singapore staff have received termination offers and are starting to sign agreements. (Bloomberg, 11.13.25)
• The U.S. urged NATO allies to stop buying Russian energy in order to help end the war in Ukraine, adding pressure on member countries such as Turkey even as they cut back their purchases. The message was delivered by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Monday, the State Department said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 11.11.25)
• Governments across Europe and the Middle East are rushing to ensure the sprawling oil operations of Russian energy giant Lukoil PJSC can keep running after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned the company and then quashed a key bid for its assets last week. Russia’s second-largest oil company runs a vast international operation that includes oil fields, refineries and filling stations. It was sanctioned by both the U.S. and UK last month with a brief window—until Nov. 21—to end current dealings with the company. (Bloomberg, 11.11.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Hungary has received a full exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian energy imports after talks with President Donald Trump, allowing continued purchases via the TurkStream and Druzhba pipelines. Orban argued that Hungary's landlocked geography leaves it with no alternative to Russian oil and gas, while Trump acknowledged the country’s limited options and criticized other European states for also buying Russian energy. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil giants last month amid stalled peace efforts, but made the exemption to avoid "deep consequences" for Hungary’s energy supply. (RFE/RL, 11.08.25)
• President Donald Trump has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil imports after meeting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the White House. The exemption, which covers crude delivered through the Druzhba and TurkStream pipelines, will allow Hungary to continue sourcing oil from Russia without restrictions as it lacks access to the sea. Orbán also announced new U.S.-Hungarian agreements on nuclear cooperation, including plans to purchase nuclear fuel from Westinghouse and introduce American small modular reactor technology in Hungary. (Financial Times, 11.08.25)
• Germany’s SEFE—the former Gazprom PJSC unit nationalized by the German government after the invasion of Ukraine—plans to end a gas-import deal with Russia by January 2027. (Bloomberg, 11.11.25)
• Bulgaria seized control of Lukoil PJSC’s local refinery to head off a potential fuel crisis from U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil firm. The government in Sofia appointed Rumen Spetsov, head of the Balkan country’s tax agency, to take control of the Neftohim refinery on its Black Sea coast as well as Lukoil Bulgaria, which operates 220 gas stations in the country. (Bloomberg, 11.14.25)
• India has scaled back purchases of Russian crude for arrival in December, showing that Russian stakeholders in Serbia’s state-linked oil company NIS are negotiating a withdrawal from the firm as it comes under newly enforced U.S. sanctions, Serbia’s energy minister said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 11.11.25)
• Western sanctions and trade talks with the U.S. are having a major impact on buying patterns. Five big Indian refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russia oil for next month, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named due the sensitivity of the trade. (Bloomberg, 11.11.25)
• Russian oil giant Lukoil has halted production at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 field—its most important foreign asset—after U.S. sanctions led Baghdad to suspend all payments and cancel November crude allocations, forcing the company to declare force majeure. The stoppage threatens about 9% of Iraq’s oil output and could result in Lukoil’s exit within six months if issues are not resolved. (Meduza, 11.11.25)
• Brazil has sharply reduced its reliance on Russian diesel imports after new U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies, with Russia’s share of Brazil’s diesel imports dropping from 60% in early 2025 to just 17% in October. (Financial Times, 11.11.25)
• Russia’s oil shipments through the Arctic Ocean are encountering increasing delays because of U.S. sanctions, a fresh example of how the measures are adding friction to Moscow’s energy trade. Ocean-going tankers have taken almost three weeks longer this year than last to deliver crude oil to northern China from Russia’s Arctic and Baltic Sea ports via the Northern Sea Route. (Bloomberg, 11.14.25)
• China is stepping up its efforts to import U.S.-sanctioned Russian gas, building the beginnings of a domestic “shadow fleet” of vessels that can transport the super-cooled fuel and circumvent restrictions imposed on one of the Kremlin’s flagship industries. (Bloomberg, 11.11.25)
• Spain’s Banco Santander SA pulled funding commitments from Gunvor Group after the U.S. Treasury described the commodity trader as “the Kremlin’s puppet” in a social media post last week, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 11.14.25)
• The International Energy Agency said there’s “considerable downside risk” to its outlook for Russian crude production from U.S. sanctions, but held back from estimating the impact until it sees more details on enforcement. (Bloomberg, 11.13.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Congressional investigators on Wednesday released hundreds of emails from the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. According to the emails, in June 2018, just before the Trump-Putin Helsinki summit, Jeffrey Epstein emailed Council of Europe head Thorbjorn Jagland urging him to tell Putin that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov could “get insight on talking to me.” Epstein said he had previously advised Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who “understood Trump after our conversations.” After the summit, Epstein wrote to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that Trump believed he had “charmed” Putin but “has no idea of the symbolism” of the summit, adding, “He has no idea of most things.” (Meduza, 11.13.25)
  • Former spokesperson for the pro-Kremlin youth movement “Nashi,” Maria Drokova, worked as a PR agent for Epstein, helping manage his media relations and offering interviews to journalists. Emails show she acted as Epstein’s publicist in 2017, though Drokova later claimed it was a one-off, unpaid task. (iStories, 11.14.25)
• The U.S. Justice Department is preparing subpoenas for former CIA Director John Brennan, former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, and others involved in the 2016 Trump-Russia investigation, as part of a new criminal probe into allegations of a conspiracy to undermine Donald Trump. Prosecutors are seeking records related to intelligence assessments from mid-2016 through early 2017 and are acting on claims pushed by figures including current Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi. A grand jury will be empaneled in Florida in January, with Trump allies viewing the probe as targeting what they see as a years-long conspiracy against the former president. (Bloomberg, 11.08.25)
• The Kennan Institute, a leading center for research on Russia and Eurasia, has relaunched as an independent nonprofit after being nearly dismantled during the Trump administration’s government restructuring under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Now financially supported by its own endowment rather than federal funds, the institute will continue its mission with a reduced staff but greater independence from government influence. The Wilson Center, which previously housed the institute, has transferred the endowment and collections, and both organizations plan future cooperation. (New York Times, 11.12.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• $70.3 billion is he projected record budget deficit for Russia this year, prompting the government to issue yuan-denominated bonds. (Meduza, 11.13.25)
• Researchers at Proyekt report that 76% of Russia’s top state officials have relatives employed in government or state-linked business, signaling entrenched nepotism within the political elite. Nepotism rates are highest in the Federation Council (86%), State Duma (84%), Kremlin and security agencies (both 74%), governors (69%), and the federal government (61%). Every second official surveyed had more than two relatives in state administration, with 25 families—including those of Ramzan Kadyrov (96 relatives) and Vladimir Putin (27)—boasting 10 or more members in influential positions. The study finds siloviki now account for 29% of the elite, and over half of officials hail from Soviet-era bureaucratic dynasties. Women comprise 15% of senior officials and 13% of nepotism cases. Less than 1% of officials have family members who have served in the war in Ukraine, underlining the disconnect between the elite and broader society. (Proyekt, 11.10.25)
• Sberbank CEO Herman Gref openly acknowledged Russia’s economic challenges to President Putin, citing slow growth, shrinking loan portfolios, and disappointing 2025 results—an unusual public admission as the Kremlin typically maintains the narrative of economic resilience amid Western sanctions and war expenditures. (ISW, 11.10.25)
• In 2024, 22 human rights defenders in Russia faced politically motivated criminal charges,” and “the total instances of imprisonment in 2024 increased by 25% compared to 2023, while the number of people taken to pretrial detention increased by 185%. (Foreign Policy, 11.10.25)
• Sergei Boyarsky, senior lawmaker in Russia’s lower-house State Duma said Tuesday that the government has no plans to disconnect the country’s internet from the global web following debate over a decree that grants new powers to state internet regulators. (MT/AFP, 11.11.25)
  • Mobile internet access will be restricted in parts of the central Ulyanovsk region for the duration of Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, regional authorities said Tuesday, marking the first permanent internet blackout in the country. (MT/AFP, 11.11.25)
• A Russian state TV broadcast on Oct. 11, 2020, claimed to show President Putin working at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence, reinforcing the Kremlin’s narrative of his nonstop dedication. However, an RFE/RL investigation revealed the footage was actually filmed at a nearly identical office in Sochi, over 1,500 km away. Systema, RFE/RL’s investigative unit, found the Kremlin has used duplicate offices in Sochi and Valdai to mislead about Putin’s whereabouts, with hundreds of supposed Novo-Ogaryovo meetings actually staged at these other locations since the Ukraine invasion began (RFE/RL, 11.11.25)
• Russia’s financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring on Thursday added exiled political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann and philanthropist Boris Zimin to its list of “terrorists and extremists.” The designation enables authorities to freeze bank accounts and block access to financial services without a court order. Rosfinmonitoring’s list of “terrorists and extremists” includes more than 17,800 individuals and over 800 organizations. (MT/AFP, 11.14.25)
• A Moscow military court sentenced exiled politician Leonid Gozman to 10 years in prison in absentia for “justifying terrorism,” authorities announced on Friday. Gozman fled Russia in September 2022 after serving two consecutive 15-day jail terms for blog posts in 2013 and 2020 that compared the Soviet government to the Nazi regime. (MT/AFP, 11.14.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian military has created a new independent Unmanned Systems Forces service, consolidating drone regiments, battalions, and support units, as part of broader efforts to centralize drone procurement and control within the armed forces. Plans include establishing a dedicated military school for drone operators by 2027. The status of elite units like the Rubikon Center remains unclear. (ISW, 11.12.25)
• Russia has begun partial reserve call-ups, training reservists ostensibly to protect critical infrastructure but likely also to prepare new forces for the war in Ukraine. At least 19 federal subjects are training reservist units, with contractual language restricting deployments to home regions, though legal experts and past practice suggest the Kremlin could send them to the front regardless. This mobilization has focused on central Russian regions, while politically sensitive areas like Moscow are excluded from the effort. (ISW, 11.10.25)
  • At least 20 Russian regions have begun recruiting military reservists to guard strategic infrastructure under a new law that allows the military to deploy them during peacetime, the Kommersant business newspaper reported on Monday. (MT/AFP, 11.10.25)
• Russia is rapidly militarizing its education system, now requiring weapons training, army discipline, and pro-war indoctrination from early grades through high school. By eighth grade, military drills and weapons handling are mandatory, and the Defense Ministry’s Youth Army claims 1.85 million members. The program, fueled by a sixfold budget increase since 2021, aims to foster loyalty and prepare a generation ready to fight, while war narratives and Kremlin propaganda dominate textbooks—even in occupied Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 11.14.25)
• A Russian fighter jet crashed in the northwestern republic of Karelia on Thursday, killing both crew members on board, the military and regional authorities said. The accident happened as the Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jet was performing a training flight, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. (MT/AFP, 11.14.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Residents of several villages in Russia’s Zabaikalsky Krai have reported being subjected to torture (including beatings and electric shocks) by military police and search teams seeking deserters from the armed forces. Cases included the abduction and torture of a young man to compel information on a relative who had not returned to service after being freed from Ukrainian captivity; his relatives say he was released only after the brother surrendered and was taken away for redeployment to Ukraine. Other incidents involved masked men beating and torturing family members of other missing soldiers. Authorities also reportedly conducted masked street searches in additional villages. (Istories, 11.11.25)
• New draft legislation in Russia would empower the FSB to order nationwide internet shutdowns by requiring telecom operators to cut services “in the interests of state security.” Experts warn this would legalize digital blackouts at the FSB’s discretion. Meanwhile, authorities have begun mass mobilization of military reservists under a law supposedly limiting them to duties in their home regions, but legal experts say the language allows for deployment to the front lines in occupied Ukraine. (Meduza, 11.11.25)

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Monday it has detained eight residents of the republic of Bashkortostan over an alleged plot to sabotage mobile phone infrastructure, state media reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 11.10.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Kremlin has denied for the second time in a week rumors that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been sidelined following failed U.S.-Russia peace talks, with presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisting Lavrov remains active in his role and publicly dismissing reports of his “disgrace” as false. Speculation followed Lavrov’s absence from key national security meetings and his removal as head of Russian delegations to recent G20 and ASEAN summits. Meanwhile, Lavrov reiterated that resolving the war in Ukraine requires addressing its root causes. (Istories, 11.10.25)
• As the United States deployed warships and submarines to the Caribbean and escalated strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug-smuggling boats in recent months, President Nicolás Maduro appealed to a powerful friend: Russia. Even as he went on television in October vowing that Venezuelans were ready to “defeat this open conspiracy against the peace and stability” of their country, Maduro reportedly sent a letter to President Vladimir Putin requesting missiles and help in repairing Russian-made fighter jets. Former U.S. officials and regional analysts who spoke to The Moscow Times said the reported letter reflected how cornered the Venezuelan leader has become. (MT/AFP, 11.13.25)
• Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries has signed a cooperation agreement with Ethiopia’s largest state-owned investment firm as part of its push to expand into Africa, the state-run news agency TASS reported on Thursday. (MT/AFP, 11.13.25)
• The Russian government on Wednesday lost a legal bid at Australia's High Court to construct a new embassy near the country's parliament building. (MT/AFP, 11.12.25)

Energoatom corruption scandal in Ukraine:¹¹

• Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies (NABU and SAPO) announced on Monday that they had uncovered a major corruption scheme in which contractors of the state-owned nuclear energy company had been forced to pay hefty kickbacks. It was in mid-2025 that NABU and SAPO intensified scrutiny of the energy sector, launching a sweeping probe into a $100 million kickback and money laundering scheme at the state nuclear company, Energoatom. The inquiry, codenamed “Midas,”¹² involved 1,000 hours of audio recordings, 15 months of surveillance, and 70 raids, focusing on allegations of illegal payments by contractors—typically 10–15% of contract value—to retain business.¹³ Suspects included former advisers, Minister of Justice Herman Halushchenko, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, and Zelenskyy's onetime business partner, Timur Mindich, who fled Ukraine as investigators closed in.¹⁴ Mindich is suspected of having allegedly run the kickback scheme, which demanded payoffs from Energoatom contractors. “With arrests and detentions already underway, Zelenskyy—who was elected president in 2019, pledging to root out the graft, and who has been recently under fire for attempting to curtail the two anti-corruption agencies—called for the resignations of Halushchenko and Hrynchuk, promising a reset at Energoatom and tough sanctions on those involved. Throughout Nov. 12–13, both ministers resigned and prosecutors named seven suspects, with five already detained. NABU reported Friday that it has served a notice of suspicion for illegal enrichment to former Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshov in connection with a corruption case involving "Energoatom." According to MP Honcharenko, NABU detectives allegedly documented the transfer of over $1.2 million and nearly €100,000 in cash to Chernyshov and his trusted associate. Western donors and the EU closely watched the case, as fighting corruption effectively remain critical for sustained international support.
• The scandal has stoked domestic outrage, especially with blackouts from Russian attacks, and put renewed pressure on Zelenskyy’s government¹⁵ to achieve lasting transparency and accountability.^16,17,18
• “The case has ignited outrage among the Ukrainian public, which is enduring prolonged blackouts following Russian strikes on the country’s energy system in recent weeks...contracts to install protection over energy infrastructure this fall were delayed while an Energoatom official held out for a larger payoff.” (Wall Street Journal, 11.12.25) Until this scandal, corruption in Ukraine has been a topic that some Western analysts of the war have been reluctant to acknowledge.
• “The announcement this week of the investigation signaled the resurgence of NABU and its sister agency, the Specialized Anticorruption Prosecutor’s Office, or SAPO. In July, Zelenskyy signed a law to defang the two agencies. Thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets in protest, and Zelenskyy backtracked.” (Wall Street Journal, 11.12.25)
• "The scandal has sparked public outrage, especially with Ukrainian society suffering power blackouts from Russian strikes." (Wall Street Journal)
• The case is closely watched by Western donors amid ongoing debates over aid and Ukraine’s EU accession. (Washington Post)
• European leaders are now warning Kyiv to pursue a crackdown and demanding answers, even as European officials said they had little choice but to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia's brutal attacks while simultaneously urging Kyiv to eradicate graft. (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• E.U. foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told Reuters that the corruption scandal was "extremely unfortunate" and said that Kyiv should "take it very seriously." (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• Guillaume Mercier, a spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc's executive branch, said Thursday that the E.U. is closely watching the probe in Kyiv. Ukraine must safeguard its independent anti-corruption agencies, Mercier said, and "ensure the integrity of all energy-related financial support." (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• The office of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he called Zelenskyy on Thursday to emphasize European concerns: "We expect Ukraine to press ahead with anti-corruption measures and reforms in its own country," Merz said. (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul reaffirmed military support for Ukraine while urging stronger anti-corruption efforts, warning that Western aid depends on it. He made the comments at the G7 summit as Berlin expects a transparent probe into recent major corruption cases in Ukraine’s energy sector, though German aid has not yet been affected. (Ukrainska Pravda)
• Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen on Thursday said he was in talks with Ukrainian officials to make clear "that they have to fight corruption." "And it's also part of the conditionality we put on packages we design for Ukraine," Heinen told reporters Thursday on the sidelines of an E.U. meeting in Brussels. (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said Nov. 14 providing more aid to Ukraine would not help end the war with Russia and could "fuel further corruption," referring to a graft scandal that has rocked the government in Kyiv. “It seems to me that corruption scandals are emerging, involving the Ukrainian government, so I would not want the money of Italian workers and pensioners to be used to fuel further corruption," Salvini said. (Reuters, 11.14.25, Reuters, 11.14.25)
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Zelenskyy that Russia will exploit reports of corruption in Ukraine for propaganda, making it harder to rally Western support. Tusk stressed that even minor corruption threatens Ukraine’s reputation and war effort, urging vigilance to avoid “losing the war by tolerating such incidents.” (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban attacked what he called the "golden illusion" of Ukraine "The golden illusion of Ukraine is falling apart," Orban, a hardline conservative facing a tough election battle next year, wrote on X. "A wartime mafia network with countless ties to President [Zelensky] has been exposed." Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called on the EU to stop sending money to Ukraine. (Newsweek, 11.13.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 11.13.25)
• Asked if the disclosures have shaken E.U. confidence, Lithuanian Finance Minister Kristupas Vaitiekunas responded in blunt terms: "Maybe, but what other options do we have?" (Washington Post, 11.14.25)
• Ukrainian President’s Office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak called the recently exposed corruption in Ukraine’s energy sector “an echo of the Kremlin’s legacy.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)

Other Ukraine news:

• Zelenskyy has blamed former state grid head Volodymyr Kudrytsky for failing to adequately protect Ukraine’s power infrastructure from massive Russian missile and drone attacks that have caused widespread blackouts. Kudrytsky, who was recently arrested on embezzlement charges many see as political retaliation, argues he sounded the alarm about unfortified substations and delays in securing new power generation, blaming other state energy firms and ministries for failing to act in time. Anti-corruption campaigners claim Kudrytsky is being targeted for speaking out, while Ukraine’s new energy minister Svitlana Hrynchuk warned that only a small fraction of lost generation has been replaced and protecting all energy infrastructure is impossible given Russia’s evolving tactics. (The Times, 11.09.25)
• The head of Ukraine’s Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), Oleksandr Klymenko, confirmed that an internal investigation is ongoing into his deputy, Andrii Synyuk, over reported meetings with individuals linked to Timur Mindich, a key suspect in the Energoatom corruption case. The probe may have both disciplinary and criminal outcomes. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
• In Kyiv, the head of a political party was arrested for accepting a $160,000 bribe in exchange for a spot on his party’s candidate list in the next parliamentary election. Authorities say he also spread pro-Kremlin disinformation and faces up to 12 years in prison with asset confiscation if convicted. (Kommersant.net, 11.14.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• President Trump announced Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords, though Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic ties with Israel. President Tokayev described the move as economic, not diplomatic, and a logical continuation of policy. The summit marked the first White House meeting with all five Central Asian leaders, who seek U.S. investment amid Russian and Chinese competition. Tokayev praised Trump’s pragmatic approach, signaled cooperation on critical minerals, and offered Kazakhstan as a Ukraine-Russia mediator. Putin on Wednesday accepted an invitation from Tokayev to visit the neighboring Central Asian country next year. (New York Times, 11.08.25, MT/AFP, 11.12.25)
• Following a high-profile summit in Washington with all five Central Asian leaders that saw new U.S. deals worth billions of dollars, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to reaffirm ties and chart Russia's future economic role in the Central Asian country. Toqaev arrived on Nov. 11 for a one-on-one discussion with Putin and held formal talks on Nov. 12 to discuss joint gas projects and the economic fallout from U.S. sanctions on Russia's major oil companies. (RFE/RL, 11.12.25)
• The EU released a “devastating” report citing “serious democratic backsliding” in Georgia, accusing the ruling Georgian Dream party of political repression and drifting toward Russia. Laws targeting dissent and opposition mimic Moscow’s tactics, and pro-European parties face bans and prosecution. Opposition leaders warn the government’s actions threaten democracy and EU aspirations, with analysts saying Georgia’s future is tied to the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Washington Post, 11.13.25)
• Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili appealed to President Zelenskyy to add him to Ukraine’s list of civilian prisoners, after being transferred back to prison in Georgia. Saakashvili claims his prosecution and poisoning are linked to his support for Ukraine and requests Ukrainian intervention, citing that “Ukrainians don’t abandon their own.” (RBC.ua, 11.14.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. For detailed description of the corruption scandal see, for instance, “From Army To Zelenskyy, Ukraine's Corruption Scandal Rocks Country,” Ray Furlong and RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, RFR/RL, 11.12.25; “Two Senior Ukrainian Ministers Resign Amid Widening Corruption Probe,” Ian Lovett and Nikita Nikolaienko, Wall Street Journal, 11.12.25.
2. Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU) is moving to the financial investigation phase of the “Midas” case, focusing on tracing at least $100 million laundered abroad via complex schemes—including crypto. NABU will cooperate with foreign partners and financial intelligence to track international transactions and assets, as the probe widens to possible new suspects and reveals over 30 pseudonyms in the corruption network. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)
3. The head of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU), Semen Kryvonos, detailed how “Operation Midas” began by monitoring “back offices” where bribes and contracts were discussed and laundered. The 15-month investigation involved undercover surveillance, audio recordings from multiple secret locations and use of anti-surveillance tactics by suspects. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
4. Ukrainska Pravda, a leading Ukrainian newspaper, has reported that the influence of Mindich as a shadowy backroom operator in politics and business had swelled during the war. Mindich recommended candidates for cabinet positions, the newspaper said. So great was his perceived sway over Zelenskyy that opposition members of Parliament have taken to calling the current government the cabinet of Mindich. (New York Times, 11.14.25) According to business sources cited by Ukrainska Pravda, NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office documented Mindich at the same apartment where Zelenskyy’s birthday was celebrated five years ago. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
5. When he considered a run for president of Ukraine, Zelenskyy, a former comedian, joked about the country’s rampant high-level corruption. “Is it possible to become president and not steal?” Zelenskyy quipped. “It’s a rhetorical question, as no one has tried so far.”(New York Times, 11.14.25)
6. In the summer of 2025, Zelenskyy’s office and the parliament in Kyiv tried to strip the independence of NABU and SAPO and place them under the supervision of Ukraine’s prosecutor general, a political appointee. (Politico, 11.12.25)
7. Some of this has been previously reported. For instance, see this Aug. 14, 2025, Reuters story.
8. This settlement (Novouspenske) was reported by DeepState as captured on Nov. 11.
9. These settlements have been reported by Ukraine’s DeepState as captured earlier.

10. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, overnight on Nov. 13-14, Russia launched: 430 Shahed and Gerbera OWA UAVs, 3 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 1 Tsirkon cruise missile, 6 Iskander-K / Kalibr cruise missiles, and 9 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles. (Status-6 X Account, 11.14.25)

11. For detailed description of the corruption scandal see, for instance, “From Army To Zelenskyy, Ukraine's Corruption Scandal Rocks Country,” Ray Furlong and RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, RFR/RL, 11.12.25; “Two Senior Ukrainian Ministers Resign Amid Widening Corruption Probe,” Ian Lovett and Nikita Nikolaienko. (Wall Street Journal, 11.12.25) “Ukraine corruption scandal explained: The $100M plot rocking Zelenskyy,” Veronika Melkozerova and Jamie Dettmer. (Politico EU, 11.12.25)
12. Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU) is moving to the financial investigation phase of the “Midas” case, focusing on tracing at least $100 million laundered abroad via complex schemes—including crypto. NABU will cooperate with foreign partners and financial intelligence to track international transactions and assets, as the probe widens to possible new suspects and reveals over 30 pseudonyms in the corruption network. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25)
13. The head of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU), Semen Kryvonos, detailed how “Operation Midas”—which uncovered a large corruption scheme in the energy sector—began by monitoring “back offices” where bribes and contracts were discussed and laundered. The 15-month investigation involved undercover surveillance, audio recordings from multiple secret locations, and use of anti-surveillance tactics by suspects. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
14. Ukrainska Pravda, a leading Ukrainian newspaper, has reported that the influence of Mr. Mindich as a shadowy backroom operator in politics and business had swelled during the war. Mr. Mindich recommended candidates for cabinet positions, the newspaper said. So great was his perceived sway over Mr. Zelenskyy that opposition members of Parliament have taken to calling the current government the cabinet of Mindich. (New York Times, 11.14.25) According to business sources cited by Ukrainska Pravda, NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office documented Timur Mindich at the same apartment where President Zelenskyy’s birthday was celebrated five years ago. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25)
15. President Zelenskyy held a meeting with Prime Minister Svyrydenko to discuss government reshuffles, audits of state companies, and anti-corruption measures. Zelenskyy instructed that audit results be promptly shared with law enforcement and Ukraine’s international partners. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25) Svyrydenko has announced the review of all major state corporations because of a corruption affair in the energy and defense sector. (Die Welt, 11.13.25)
16. When he considered a run for president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian, joked about the country’s rampant high-level corruption. “Is it possible to become president and not steal?” Mr. Zelenskyy quipped. “It’s a rhetorical question, as no one has tried so far.” Mr. Zelenskyy’s promises to fight corruption propelled him to the presidency in 2019. (New York Times, 11.14.25)
17. Sources used when drafting this entry include: (New York Times, 11.10.25, New York Times, 11.11.25, Washington Post, 11.11.25, Washington Post, 11.12.25, Financial Times, 11.12.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 11.12.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.12.25, RBC.ua, 11.12.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.12.25, RBC.ua, 11.12.25. Bloomberg, 11.12.25, Washington Post, 11.13.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.13.25, Washington Post, 11.13.25, RBC.ua, 11.13.25. Ukrainska Pravda, 11.13.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.13.25, Washington Post, 11.14.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.14.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.12.25, Politico, 11.12.25, Strana.ua, Strana.ua, 11.14.25
18. In the 2025 summer, Zelenskyy’s office and the parliament in Kyiv tried to strip the independence of NABU and SAP and place them under the supervision of Ukraine’s prosecutor general, a political appointee. (Politico, 11.12.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Participants gather at a protest against a law targeting anti-corruption institutions in front of the Ukrainian parliament in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, July 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)