5 Things to Know

1. This fall has seen escalating nuclear rhetoric between Russian and U.S. leaders, raising concerns over the future of nuclear arms control. The latest flare-up began on Oct. 26, when Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed successful testing of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, touting it as a "unique weapon.” This prompted U.S. President Donald Trump on the following day to counter that the U.S. had a nuclear submarine, “the greatest in the world, right off” Russian shores. Then, on Oct. 29, Putin announced what he insisted was another nuclear milestone—the successful testing of a Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone. In response on the same day, Trump issued an instruction to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. President Trump’s directive quickly sent ripples through American and Russian media, prompting responses from journalists, experts, and government officials. Some Trump administration officials sought to clarify that no full-scale nuclear explosions were imminent, asserting instead that any testing would be limited to noncritical tests. In contrast to them Trump doubled down on Oct. 31, remarking that he ordered resumption of nuclear testing in response to alleged secret underground nuclear detonations by Russia & China: “They test way underground where people don’t know what’s happening with the test.” In response to Trump’s directive, Putin brandished Russian nuclear sabers again on Nov. 4 and 5. During the Nov. 5 episode, Putin presided over a clearly orchestrated debate of his Security Council’s members on whether to conduct nuclear tests soon. Putin ended the publicly broadcast part of the debate by ordering “the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, special services and relevant civilian agencies” to gather intelligence and submit proposals on preparing for possible resumptions nuclear tests.¹ Unless discontinued, the escalation of nuclear rhetoric by U.S. and Russia could lead to a potential collapse of the longstanding moratorium on nuclear testing by the official nuclear powers,² heightening global arms race concern, according to a number of experts on both sides.³
2. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was absent from the key Nov. 5 meeting of Putin's Security Council, where members debated whether and when the country should resume nuclear testing in response to Donald Trump's nuclear testing directive. In the absence of Russia's chief diplomat, it fell to Russia's chief spy Sergey Naryshkin to brief Putin and the other participants on how Russian MFA officials had approached the U.S. government to clarify the meaning of Donald Trump’s nuclear test directive. Lavrov's absence from the afternoon session was reported by Kommersant less than an hour before the midnight (Moscow time). This daily reported that Lavrov’s absence had been approved in advance, but the report did not specify the reason for his absence (The only activity by Lavrov reported on RF MFA’s online news line on Nov. 5 was his condolences sent on occasion of passing of a Soviet TV personality). Perhaps, his absence could have something to do with the recent claim by a source in Financial Times that “Lavrov is clearly tired and seems to think he has better things to do than meet or engage with the U.S.?" Evidence that some could interpret as Lavrov’s fall from grace include that it has been recently disclosed that Russia’s delegation to G20 summit in Johannesburg on Nov. 22–23 will be led by deputy head of presidential administration Maxim Oreshkin, not Lavrov, even though it was the latter who headed such a delegation at the 2024 G20 summit. However, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports that Lavrov has “fallen out of favor.” “There is nothing true in these reports,” Peskov said on Nov. 7, according to MT.
3. This week has seen Russian forces make significant gains in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk with Ukraine’s DeepState resource describing the situation in this eastern Ukrainian city as “critical” for its defenders on Nov. 4, while RFE/RL described it as “extremely dangerous” as of Nov. 5. “We’ve lost 80% of the city, fighting for the remainder,” a senior Ukrainian officer was quoted by Ukraine’s Euromaidan outlet on Nov. 5 as saying with regard to Pokrovsk. The last Ukrainian-held corridor, linking Pokrovsk with the garrison in Myrnohrad, was reported on Nov. 6 to have shrunk to just five kilometers wide, but the Ukrainian General Staff has been denying that Pokrovsk is encircled. Meanwhile Western media outlets have taken turns this past week to either implicitly or explicitly predict the fall of Pokrovsk. “Ukraine’s valiant defense of Pokrovsk is nearing its end,” according to The Economist; Russia Close to Its Biggest Capture of a Ukrainian City Since 2023, New York Times reported on Nov. 6; and “Russian Forces in Ukraine Near First Major Conquest in More Than Two Years ,” according to WSJ’s Nov. 6 article. As stated in RM earlier, the fall of Pokrovsk will be a serious setback for Ukraine, as it would bring Russian forces closer to the Donetsk region cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.
4. In the week of Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025, Russia has gained 34 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down slightly from the previous week’s gain of 39 square miles, according to the Nov. 5 issue of Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease over the 166 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 9–Oct. 7, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory—an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio—including the 7% it controlled prior to its Feb. 24, 2022, full invasion, according to the RM report card. The slower pace of Russia’s advances in recent weeks may be partly due to its widely publicized focus on encircling the critical Ukrainian fortress city of Pokrovsk, and Russia’s tactics of incremental infiltration in small groups there.⁴
5. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's Nov. 3-4 visit to China, praised by President Vladimir Putin as “very timely, informative and useful,” resulted in the signing of 15 cooperation agreements spanning satellite navigation, customs, digital transport, and agricultural exports, according to Russia’s TASS and Interfax. During their Nov. 4 meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping told Mishustin that China and Russia have “steadfastly navigated a turbulent external environment with great composure, aiming for higher-level and higher-quality development goals,” according to Xinhua. He added that maintaining, consolidating and advancing bilateral relations is a strategic choice for both sides, according to the news agency. During Mishustin’s talks with Xi and Premier Li Qiang, the sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening their comprehensive strategic partnership and improving mutual investment, with bilateral investments already exceeding $15 billion. That said, Moscow Times reported that the first nine months of 2025 saw the first decline in Russia-China trade since the start of the Ukraine war, down 9.4% year-on-year to $163.62 billion. This occurred because of sanctions, weak demand, and market saturation, according to Kommersant.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• French energy company EDF’s Framatome unit is seeking German approval to begin producing Russian-design nuclear fuel assemblies at its Lingen plant in November, aiming to supply Czech and Bulgarian reactors reliant on Russian technology. This move seeks to provide Central European operators with a non-Russian source for VVER 1000 fuel, competing with Westinghouse. (Bloomberg, 11.07.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Senior North Korean and Russian military officials, including Vice Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin, held talks in Pyongyang this week on strengthening bilateral military cooperation, North Korean state media reported. South Korea’s intelligence service believes North Korea has already sent around 15,000 troops to Russia since last fall, along with military equipment, and is preparing additional deployments, including 5,000 military construction workers for infrastructure projects. The discussions signal deepening alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. (Washington Post/AP, 11.07.25)
• South Korea’s intelligence service reports North Korea has sent about 5,000 construction troops to Russia since September for “infrastructure reconstruction,” with up to 10,000 North Korean personnel now near the Russia-Ukraine border. At least 600 North Koreans have reportedly died in the Ukraine war. In exchange, Pyongyang is receiving financial aid, military tech, and food from Moscow—helping circumvent UN sanctions on North Korea. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)
• In the third quarter of 2025, a record 3,460 Russian tourists visited North Korea—a 24% increase from the second quarter and the highest number in 15 years, according to FSB data cited by NK News. The surge follows the opening of the Wonsan resort, which drew Russian vacationers with new hotels, beaches, and an aquapark. At the same time, Russia has stopped publishing statistics on North Korean arrivals, though past figures show dramatic increases since 2022, with 13,221 North Koreans entering Russia in 2024—many under the pretext of “study.” (Korrespondent.net, 11.07.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• More than 70% of Russian civilians injured by Ukrainian actions have been victims of drone attacks, according to Russian Foreign Ministry envoy Rodion Miroshnik. In the past three months, around 1,200 Russian civilians have been harmed in such strikes. Long-range rocket systems are the second most common cause of civilian casualties, he claimed. (RG.ru, 10.17.25)
• Ukraine has managed to return 1,744 children from Russia and Russian-occupied territories, according to Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak. At least 661 Ukrainian children have been killed and more than 2,200 wounded due to Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to Yermak. Yermak called for tougher economic sanctions on Russia and highlighted international efforts to bring abducted Ukrainian children home. (Korrespondent.net, 11.05.25)
• A Ukrainian brigade reported that Russian drones deliberately killed two civilians carrying a white flag while walking their dog. (ISW, 11.04.25)
• A Russian soldier, Dmitry Kurashov, was sentenced to life imprisonment by a Ukrainian court for executing an unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war in Zaporizhzhia. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.06.25)
• A Moscow court has arrested adoption advocate Irina Rudnitskaya on child trafficking charges after she took in children removed from Mariupol, including a teenager who had tried returning to Ukraine. (Istories, 11.03.25)
• Ukrainian officials report Russian forces have committed over 190,000 war crimes since the full-scale invasion began, including a doubling of drone strikes on civilians in 2025 compared to all of last year, according to Ukrainian investigators. (ISW, 11.05.25)
• During American actress Angelina Jolie’s humanitarian visit to Ukraine on Nov. 5, military draft officers detained her driver, according to multiple reports. (Meduza, 11.05.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia fired more missiles at Ukraine in October than in any month since at least the start of 2023, an AFP analysis of Ukrainian data showed, Russia’s army fired 270 missiles in October, up 46% on the previous month, according to an AFP analysis of daily data published by Ukraine’s air force. (AFP, 11.01.25)
• Kyiv reports around 160 successful strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in 2025 alone. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)
• By mid-2025, Russia’s military had suffered an estimated 200,000–220,000 killed in the war against Ukraine, based on inheritance registry data analyzed by Meduza and Mediazona. Daily Russian military deaths rose from 200–250 in 2024 to about 300 during the peak 2025 offensive. Ukraine has over 80,000 soldiers officially listed as missing. (Meduza, 11.04.25)
• Oct. 2025 marked Russia’s highest monthly losses since the invasion began, with over 25,000 Russian troops killed according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing video evidence to confirm the figure. Zelenskyy suggested the actual figure could be as high as 27,000–28,000, noting that expanded drone use on the front contributed to the unprecedented toll. Overall, Ukrainian military command estimates total Russian losses in the war now approach 1,149,000 soldiers. (RBC.ua, 11.07.25)
• Russian energy experts Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko wrote, “By late October, Ukrainian drones had hit more than half of Russia’s 38 major refineries at least once. As a result, Russia went from processing about 5.4 million barrels of oil per day in July to processing roughly 5 million barrels per day in September.” “It may be tempting to conclude that Ukraine is on the verge of breaking Russia’s oil industry. But that is not the case. Despite the serious damage they are causing, the attacks are unlikely to change Moscow’s resolve in the near term,” they wrote. (Foreign Affairs, 11.05.25)^[5]

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• On Friday, Oct. 31, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Nove Shakhove. The Russian forces advanced near Kozatske, Krasnohirske, Myroliubivka and occupied Novohryhorivka, according to DeepState (RM, 11.03.25)
• On Oct. 30–31, Ukrainian forces used Neptune missiles to hit the Oryol Thermal Power Plant and Novobryansk substation, facilities supplying Russian military enterprises. Ukraine’s USF, collaborating with Russian insurgents, also disabled a Russian Buk-M3 SAM system and NEBO-U radar in Rostov Oblast in late September. (ISW, 10.31.25)
• Ukraine’s president and security services said Friday they had secretly destroyed one of Russia’s new nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles inside Russian territory before Moscow debuted the weapon in combat (MT/AFP, 10.31.25)
• Out of 11.1 million Ukrainian men aged 25–60, only 3.7 million remain available for mobilization as 7.4 million are already mobilized or unavailable. (Financial Times, 10.01.25)

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025

• On Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, near Kamianka and Novohryhorivka. (RM, 11.03.25)

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025

• On Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Pryvilne. (RM, 11.03.25)
• Russia fired a wave of drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, killing at least six people including two children and cutting power to tens of thousands, officials said Sunday. (MT/AFP, 11.02.25)
• Ukraine conducted strikes against Russian oil and power infrastructure overnight on Nov. 1–2, hitting the Tuapse oil terminal (which handles about 20% of Russian crude exports) and causing major fires and damage to tankers and port facilities, as well as substations in Kursk and Lipetsk oblasts. The strike caused an oil spill stretching several kilometers into the Black Sea Fuel exports from the Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse have. (ISW, 11.02.25, Bloomberg, 11.02.25, MT/AFP, 11.04.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 11.05.25, MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday said he visited troops near the embattled city of Pokrovsk. Hundreds of Russian soldiers have infiltrated the logistics hub, Kyiv said earlier this week. Others are closing in on its outskirts in a pincer-shaped movement. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)

Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

• On Monday, Nov. 3, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Borivska Andriivka, Karpivka, Kozatske and in Pokrovsk. (RM, 11.03.25)
• Ukrainian forces liberated significant ground on the Dobropillya flank, clearing Russian penetration near Dobropillya and retaking areas such as Nove Shakhove and Kucheriv Yar. (ISW, 11.03.25)
• Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, one of Rosneft’s oldest and largest facilities, marking the fourth such hit there this autumn. Russia’s defense ministry reported downing 64 drones overnight, mainly over Saratov and Rostov. (MT/AFP, 11.03.25)
• Russian air strikes and a wave of drone and missile attacks hit multiple regions across Ukraine overnight, killing at least six people—including two children—and wounding at least 15 others, according to Ukrainian officials. Strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Pokrovsk, leaving at least three dead and heavily damaging residential buildings, while additional attacks in Kherson, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, and the entire Donetsk region killed three more civilians and cut power to tens of thousands. (RFE/RL 11.03.25, MT/AFP, 11.03.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

• In the past week, Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025, Russia has gained 34 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down slightly from the previous week’s gain of 39 square miles, according to the Nov. 5 issue of Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease over the 166 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 9–Oct. 7, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. As of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory—an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio—including the 7% it controlled prior to its Feb. 24, 2022, full invasion, according to the card. (RM, 11.07.25)  
• On Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces drove the Russian forces back near Shakhove. The Russian forces advanced near Bologivka, Kamianka, Volodymyrivka and Pryvillia. (RM, 11.03.25)
• Russian forces captured 461 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in Oct., maintaining an average pace of gains in 2025 and now controlling 81% of Donetsk region, according to ISW data analyzed by AFP. Overall, Russia currently occupies or claims 19.2% of Ukraine, with heavy assaults ongoing near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad as Ukraine rushes to reinforce defenses. (AFP, 11.04.25)
• A Ukrainian drone unit operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces are sending nearly 100 fireteams consisting of up to three personnel each into Pokrovsk per day, The Ukrainian drone unit stated that these Russian fireteams are overwhelming Ukrainian positions such that Ukrainian drone operators do not have time to launch drones. (ISW, 11.04.25)
• Russian forces are increasingly operating inside Pokrovsk, advancing in nearby Myrnohrad and Rodynske, establishing observation posts, and checking civilians’ documents as they seek to entrench positions within the city. (ISW, 11.03.25)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region now under intense Russian assault. Zelenskyy said about 260–300 Russian soldiers are in Pokrovsk, where roughly 30% of wartime activity is now concentrated. (ISW, 11.04.25, MT/AFP, 11.04.25)
• Ukrainian drones struck an industrial complex in Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan far from the front line, regional head Radiy Khabirov said Tuesday. Sterlitamak is roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from the Ukrainian border. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• On Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Pavlivka and advanced near Balagan, Udachne, Stupochky, Plavni, Prymorske and Uspenivka. (RM,11.03.25)
• Ukraine’s DeepState resource described the situation in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk as “critical” for its defenders on Nov. 4, while RFE/RL described it as “extremely dangerous” as of Nov. 5. “We’ve lost 80% of the city, fighting for the remainder,” a senior Ukrainian officer was quoted by Ukraine’s Euromaidan outlet on Nov. 5 as saying. In contrast, Ukraine’s RBC.ua cited the Ukrainian General Staff on Nov. 5 denying that Pokrovsk is encircled. As stated earlier, the fall of Pokrovsk will be a serious setback for Ukraine, as the city is a junction for road and railway lines and would bring Russian forces closer to the Donetsk region cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. (RM, 11.05.25)
  • According to German outlet Bild, citing Ukrainian soldiers, there is a high risk that Pokrovsk could be encircled by Russian forces. One serviceman described the situation as extremely dire, stating that Ukrainian troops have lost 80% of the city and are struggling to hold the remaining 20%, with the likelihood of further withdrawal unclear. Units in nearby Myrnohrad and areas to the south are reportedly in an even worse position, already nearly surrounded. (Stranaua.media, 11.05.25)
  • Ukraine’s General Staff denied reports that Pokrovsk is encircled, stating on Nov. 5 that Ukrainian forces retain control and continue counterattacks in the city. (RBC.ua, 11.05.25)
• Russia launched 80 attack drones—including about 50 Shahed models—at Ukraine from multiple directions overnight, with Ukrainian air defenses shooting down or jamming 61 drones. Despite the successful interception of most targets, 18 drones struck at seven locations, causing infrastructure damage, and debris fell at two more sites. Air Force officials warned that some hostile drones remained in Ukrainian airspace as of the morning of Nov. 5. (RBC.ua, 11.05.25)
• Russia has begun using Soviet-era bombs retrofitted with jet engines, allowing them to strike Ukrainian targets up to 200km away. These jet-powered glide bombs, which are cheaper substitutes for cruise missiles, have hit deeper into Ukraine’s south and east in recent weeks, straining Ukraine’s limited air defenses. Ukrainian officials warn that while these weapons carry smaller payloads, Russia’s ability to launch them from deep within its own territory makes defending against them increasingly difficult. (Financial Times, 11.05.25)
• Ukraine will introduce fixed-term military contracts of one to five years for soldiers and new recruits, aiming to attract enlistment and reduce the strain of open-ended service as the war drags on. The reform, which promises higher pay and added benefits, comes amid plummeting enthusiasm for military service, battlefield losses, and draft avoidance. Its success will depend on implementation details, including how it applies to those already serving. (New York Times, 11.05.25)

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• On Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Prylipka and Volodymyrivka. (RM, 11.06.25)
• Pokrovsk is on the brink of becoming Russia’s largest conquest since Bakhmut over two years ago. Russian troops reportedly outnumber Ukrainian defenders inside the city by eight to one, with some Ukrainian units operating at just 20% of their full strength. Military estimates indicate about 250 to 300 Russian soldiers have advanced into the city, often in small foot patrols, gathering in basements to build up numbers. Russian forces now control at least 60% of Pokrovsk, according to Ukrainian sources, and drones give them a significant battlefield advantage. The last Ukrainian-held corridor, linking Pokrovsk with the garrison in Myrnohrad, has shrunk to just five kilometers wide, as Russian assault teams advance from several directions. The fall of Pokrovsk would deal a major blow to Ukraine, providing Russia with a critical strategic base for further advances in Donetsk province. (Washington Post, 11.06.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.06.25, (The Economist, 11.06.25, Meduza, 11.06.25)
  • Ukrainian officials reported a sharp rise in Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector, with Russian forces increasing from an average of 13 attacks per day in September to 30 assaults on Nov. 5. On Nov. 10–11 alone, 276 combat engagements occurred along the entire frontline, with 100 in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian troops are infiltrating using motorcycles and buggies, have conducted three rotations in the last four months, and are now interspersed house-to-house across Pokrovsk. (ISW, 11.06.25)
• Ukraine’s Defense Forces denied Russian claims of territorial gains in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, stating that fighting remains intense but key settlements are not under Russian control. Ukrainian troops continue to repel attacks and conduct counterstrikes, inflicting heavy casualties on Russian forces, particularly during recent attempts to infiltrate through fog and dense vegetation. (Korrespondent.net, 11.06.25)
• Ukraine said it made a successful drone strike at Lukoil PJSC’s Volgograd refinery in Russia. The Volgograd refinery, which has already been attacked at least six times so far this year, has a design capacity to process about 300,000 barrels a day of crude. It supplies oil products mainly to southern regions of Russia, with some volumes also shipped for export. (Bloomberg, 11.06.25)
• Ukraine’s Defense Ministry is allocating most of its weapons funding towards purchasing drone systems, with more than 500 domestic drone manufacturers now operating. Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk noted that only a portion of these drones prove effective in battlefield conditions, highlighting the need to scale up the most successful models and accelerate delivery. From 2026, 70% of drone procurement will be decentralized through the new DOT-Chain Defense system to better meet rapidly changing frontline requirements. (Korrespondent.net, 11.06.25)
• Russia has intensified air interdiction strikes against Ukrainian railways, forcing Ukrzaliznytsia to close lines from Husarivka to Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and between Slovyansk and Raihorodok—some just 20–45 km from the frontline. Recent drone attacks also struck Kamyanske station in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 104 km from the fighting. Since August, Russia has targeted at least four key railway stations, bridges, and trains across multiple regions, aiming to cripple Ukrainian logistics. According to ISW, these strikes were instrumental in Russia’s advances in Pokrovsk and could now be used to undermine Ukraine’s remaining defensive “fortress belt.” (ISW, 11.06.25)
• Russia is ramping up refurbishment of older tanks, with its 103rd Armor Repair Plant expected to modernize 300–500 T-62s annually by the end of 2025. Russia has pulled 1,000 out of 1,822 stored T-62s for upgrade in 2025 alone, leaving no usable tanks in reserve, and is also modernizing T-72s. The refurbished tanks are being used in Ukraine’s battlefield, often as infantry support or for localized firepower rather than as modern frontline vehicles. (ISW, 11.06.25)

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• Russian forces have advanced near the settlements of Prylipky (Kharkiv region) and Volodymyrivka (Donetsk region), indicating continued pressure along active frontlines. (DeepState, 11.07.25)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian military intelligence estimates 314 Russian troops remain inside Pokrovsk, where the enemy has reduced its activity while waiting for reinforcements. Ukrainian forces continue search-and-strike operations against both Russian troops and infiltrators disguising themselves as civilians, while recent Russian attempts to resupply and reinforce through the city’s southern outskirts have been thwarted. The situation near neighboring Myrnohrad also remains tense as Russia looks to shift the direction of its assaults after repeated setbacks. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.07.25)
  • Russia concentrated over 100,000 troops—more than twice Pokrovsk's prewar population—on the town to seize it, pulling personnel from other parts of the front. (Bloomberg, 11.07.25)
  • If Pokrovsk falls, it will be the largest city to be taken by Russia since Bakhmut. Russia wants "to occupy as much territory as possible in the east and south of Ukraine" to increase pressure to cancel economic sanctions against Russia and exert "political pressure on negotiations," said Andrii Ryzhenko, a strategic expert at Sonata, a U.S. defense logistics and training company. "That's why they are so active in the Pokrovsk region."Analysts say that leaving Pokrovsk could provide advantages for Ukrainian troops if they can establish new footholds nearby ahead of winter. Abandoning the salient would shorten Ukrainian front lines and improve logistics, said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Finnish Black Bird Group that analyzes the war. "Taking Pokrovsk will help Russian forces expand one of the main axis of advance seeking to envelop the main remaining cities in Donetsk but it won't lead to a collapse of the overall defense," Michael Kofman said. (Washington Post, 11.07.25)
  • Serhii Filimonov, commander of Ukraine’s Wolves of Da Vinci battalion, told the Washington Post that “as of now there are no clear lines of defense, none that can obstruct soldiers from coming into the city,” estimating that Russian forces now control more than 70% of Pokrovsk. (Washington Post, 11.07.25)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced significant advances by Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk, Kharkiv region. (Korrespondent.net, 11.07.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025

• President Trump reiterated on Nov. 2 that he is not currently considering providing Tomahawk long-range missiles to Ukraine, despite pleas from Kyiv to help strike Russian targets. Trump cited concerns about depleting U.S. stockpiles, though he left open the possibility of changing his stance. The Pentagon has assessed that transfers would not harm U.S. reserves, but there has been no decision from the White House. (RFE/RL, 11.03.25)

Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

• The UK has resupplied Ukraine with additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles, enabling more long-range strikes inside Russia. The transfer aims to bolster Ukraine’s defenses ahead of winter and signals ongoing Western support after the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Russian oil. Storm Shadows were first used by Ukraine against targets in Russia in late 2024. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)
• The UK government recently resupplied Ukraine with more Storm Shadow cruise missiles to enable Kyiv to continue its campaign of long-range strikes inside Russia, people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)
• Ukraine’s European allies are bolstering air defense and long-range strike capabilities: the UK delivered additional Storm Shadow missiles, while Germany supplied more Patriot air defense systems. President Zelenskyy acknowledged new Patriot batteries’ arrival but said Ukraine needs even more to reliably defend its cities and critical infrastructure against expected Russian winter strikes. ISW assesses that a denser Ukrainian air defense umbrella, particularly with more Patriots, would significantly reduce the threat from Russian ballistic missile attacks. (ISW, 11.03.25)
• Czech billionaire Andrej Babiš is set to return as prime minister, forming a coalition with two far-right parties. His ANO-led government will end state funding for weapons deliveries to Ukraine, raising Western concerns over Kyiv's support. Babiš has promised to allow private arms sales but faces criticism over his coalition partners’ pro-Russia and anti-EU stances. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• Ukraine has received additional U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, President Zelenskyy announced, boosting protection against Russia’s persistent drone and missile attacks. Zelenskyy thanked Germany for contributing the Patriots, stressing that more systems are needed to defend key cities and infrastructure across Ukraine. (ABC News/AP, 11.05.25)
• Latvia will deliver 21 locally produced Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, along with spare parts, repair equipment, and a mobile maintenance workshop, according to the Latvian defense ministry. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.05.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• The European Commission is considering two additional options to cover Ukraine’s budget shortfall: issuing joint EU debt and using grants from member states, according to Euractiv. These alternatives are being discussed alongside the “reparations loan” proposal—which would lend $140 billion to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets as collateral—but Belgium, Germany, and the Baltic states oppose this approach. (Meduza/Euractiv, 11.06.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General has declared the British NGO Equal Rights Trust “undesirable,” banning its activity in Russia, even though the organization shut down a month earlier. Authorities claim the group was part of an “anti-Russian information campaign,” promoted LGBT rights, and allegedly created a scheme to finance Ukraine’s military by facilitating emigration for Russian oppositionists in exchange for donations. (Meduza, 11.06.25)
• The EU must present a “credible” funding plan for Ukraine to unlock an additional $8 billion IMF package over the next three years, according to Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis. Brussels’ preferred option is to use frozen Russian central bank assets as collateral for a reparation loan to Ukraine, but legal concerns—especially from Belgium, which holds €140 billion in Russian funds—are delaying the plan. The IMF and EU stress that firm, sustainable commitments are required to meet Ukraine’s $65 billion funding gap and avoid a financial crunch. (Bloomberg, 11.06.25)

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• The European Union faces annual interest payments of up to €5.6 billion if member states fail to agree on using €140 billion in frozen Russian assets as collateral for a new Ukraine loan package, according to a European Commission document. Without access to the Russian assets, EU countries would have to jointly borrow or directly grant €140 billion, further straining national budgets. France could pay nearly €1 billion annually in interest, Italy €675 million, and Belgium nearly €200 million, while overall borrowing could raise rates for other EU programs. (Financial Times, 11.07.25)
• In addition to sanctioning Russian officials and oligarchs, European restrictions have frozen about $70 billion in assets owned by ordinary Russian citizens—mainly small private investors—due to infrastructure bans that block interactions with Russian financial services, according to a new report from the Nemtsov Foundation. Of this sum, roughly $14 billion belongs to hundreds of thousands of retail investors, many of whom fled Russia after the 2022 invasion but have since lost access to their Western-held savings solely because of their Russian passports. Jeanne Nemtsova, head of the foundation, is calling for European authorities to return these funds to their rightful owners. (Meduza, 11.07.25)
• The European Union has banned Russian citizens from receiving multi-entry Schengen visas, requiring them to apply for a new visa each time they wish to travel to the EU. The move, aimed at increasing scrutiny and mitigating security risks as pressure mounts on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, will mainly impact ordinary Russians, including those who have fled political repression. In 2025, Russians received 552,000 Schengen visas, mostly from Italy, France, and Spain, a sharp drop from before the war. (MT/AFP, 11.07.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov urged the public to rely only on official statements regarding Russia-U.S. relations, dismissing foreign media reports—including rumors of meetings between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Peskov also declined to comment on reports from the Financial Times about the canceled Putin-Trump summit in Budapest, noting that only official phrasing should be trusted regarding contacts and negotiations. (Kommersant, 10.31.25)

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025

• A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll finds 60% of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, while only 39% approve. By a significant margin (46% to 8%), Americans say Trump has been too supportive of Russia rather than too supportive of Ukraine; 41% say his approach is “about right.” Despite Trump’s claims he could quickly resolve the conflict, most respondents view his efforts as unsuccessful. (Washington Post, 11.02.25)

Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

• Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev reiterated the Kremlin’s war aim to seize all of Ukraine, repeating claims about “returning ancestral Russian lands” and warning that Western support for Kyiv will only expand Russia’s territorial demands. ISW assesses Russia remains committed to maximalist goals and is unwilling to negotiate on terms short of Ukrainian capitulation. (ISW, 11.03.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin recently asked him to “settle” the war in Ukraine, saying, “We’ve been trying to settle that war for 10 years. We weren’t able to do it. You got to settle.” Trump made the statement during remarks at the American Business Forum in Miami, describing a phone conversation with Putin two weeks prior. (Ukrainska Pravda/Yahoo, 11.05.25)

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• Speaking at Brown University, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Vladimir Putin is “the only person who matters in the decision to end this war,” stressing that for him, Russia’s war on Ukraine is about recreating the Russian Empire, not the Soviet Union. Rice suggested the war will likely end not with a grand peace treaty but a ceasefire—once Putin believes he cannot “crush” Ukraine. She noted the conflict has already cost Russia thousands of casualties and caused significant damage to its crucial oil and gas infrastructure. (Boston Globe, 11.06.25)

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• During a joint press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, President Donald Trump addressed issues ranging from Ukraine’s war prospects to stalled peace talks with Russia. Trump pressed Orban about his belief that Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield, to which Orban replied, “Miracle can happen,” and Trump laughed, “Yeah, that’s right.” On the possibility of a future Putin summit, Trump said, “We’re talking, but we’ll report on that later,” and added he would still like the summit to take place in Budapest. Discussing efforts to end the war, Trump said Russia is “losing 7,000 soldiers a week,” and described the continuing European purchase of Russian oil as “not too good.” He also remarked, “I think pretty much every single leader of Europe is a friend of mine ... they’ve done everything I’ve asked them to do with NATO, et cetera. The only thing they continue to do is buy oil from Russia.” (Independent, 11.07.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• A German court convicted three citizens, including a dual German-Russian national, of espionage and sabotage for Russia. Meanwhile, Lithuania closed Vilnius Airport after repeated aerial incursions with balloons from Belarusian airspace. The ISW assesses these incursions are part of Russia’s psychological conditioning and information operations in the region, as Lithuania also keeps land border crossings with Belarus closed. (ISW, 10.31.25)

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025

• In South Karelia, a region of Finland that lies closer to St. Petersburg than Helsinki, shock at President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of another neighbor to the west, Ukraine, is turning to apprehension over what might come next. (Bloomberg, 11.01.25)

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025

• Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken warned that any Russian attack on a NATO member capital—such as Brussels—would provoke a devastating response that would "wipe Moscow off the map." He downplayed the likelihood of a direct strike, instead cautioning against Russian “grey zone” tactics like stirring unrest among Russian minorities in the Baltics as a potential pretext for aggression. (Noinvite, 10.29.25)
• Belgian Defense officials reported three large drone incursions near the Kleine Brogel Air Base between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. Attempts to jam or intercept the drones were unsuccessful, raising security concerns as the base is slated to host F-35 fighter jets in 2027. The incidents come amid a growing number of similar security provocations across Europe. (ISW, 11.02.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

• A Russian national charged in Poland with spying for Russian intelligence has admitted to passing information to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Polish media reported Monday, citing case files. Poland charged Igor R. and his wife Irina last year over allegedly providing Russian intelligence with details about Russian opposition activists living in Poland, as well as individuals and institutions offering them assistance. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)
• The EU is considering placing new member states on "probation" and strengthening safeguards to prevent democratic backsliding and Russian influence, following concerns about entrants emulating Hungary’s illiberal turn. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos outlined possible transition periods and the ability to suspend or expel members for violating core values, as the accession process for Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkan candidates moves forward. (Financial Times, 11.04.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• Belgian authorities closed Brussels and Liege airports after unidentified drones were spotted in their airspace, and also reported similar incidents over Kleine Brogel Air Base. Belgium’s defense minister called the repeated overflights “structured” and consistent with hybrid tactics used elsewhere, though no official attribution has been made. ISW links these drone incursions to Russia’s broader Phase Zero campaign to destabilize NATO and set psychological conditions for conflict. (ISW, 11.05.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has arrested a 37-year-old Moscow resident on treason charges, accusing him of sharing personal data on opposition figures with an intelligence service from a NATO country. Authorities allege he sought cooperation in exchange for help emigrating from Russia. If convicted, he faces up to life in prison. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the alliance now produces more ammunition than Russia, marking the first time in recent years that NATO’s output has surpassed Russia’s. He noted that dozens of new production lines have been launched and existing facilities expanded, allowing NATO partners to manufacture more ammunition than at any point in recent decades. Rutte stressed the importance of further boosting production, shortening delivery times, and strengthening cooperation, as Russia remains a destabilizing force and long-term threat. (Korrespondent.net, 11.06.25)

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• German Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, head of Germany’s joint operational command, warned that Russia could launch a limited regional attack against NATO “as soon as tomorrow,” given its current capabilities and reserves. While Russia is heavily engaged in Ukraine, its air, nuclear, and missile forces remain intact, and it maintains sufficient main battle tanks for a rapid, small-scale strike. Sollfrank emphasized that such aggression would depend on Russia’s military strength, experience, leadership, and how Western allies respond, adding that Moscow aims to probe NATO’s resolve through provocation and disinformation. (Korrespondent.net, 11.07.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Vladimir Putin described Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s China visit as “very timely, informative and useful” during a Security Council meeting. The Russian delegation, which included deputy prime ministers and top ministers, was briefed on the practical impact of the new agreements. Putin stressed the importance of monitoring the implementation across all ministries. (TASS, 11.05.25)
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping told Mishustin that since the beginning of this year, China and Russia have steadfastly navigated a turbulent external environment with great composure, aiming for higher-level and higher-quality development goals, according to Xinhua. He added that maintaining, consolidating and advancing bilateral relations is a strategic choice for both sides, according to the news agency.
  • Mishustin said his talks with Chinese President Xi and Premier Li Qiang in China confirmed both countries’ commitment to further strengthen their comprehensive strategic partnership. The two delegations signed 15 cooperation agreements covering areas from satellite navigation to digitalization of transport and expanding Russian agricultural exports. (TASS, 11.06.25)
  • Mishustin and Xi agreed to continue improving conditions for mutual investment, building on a bilateral investment stock that exceeded $15 billion by 2024. At their summit, both governments outlined new tasks for boosting trade, economic, scientific, and technological ties, as well as projects in humanitarian cooperation. Trade turnover between the two countries has more than doubled since 2018. (TASS, 11.03.25)
  • Russia and China signed 15 documents at the 30th regular meeting of their heads of government, including protocols on customs cooperation and a roadmap for satellite navigation from 2026–2030. Other agreements addressed the training of polar shipping specialists and media partnerships. These new documents add to more than 200 bilateral agreements signed in the past decade. (TASS, 11.03.25)
  • Mishustin highlighted successes from the Cross Years of Culture and looked ahead to upcoming Cross Years of Education, part of the growing humanitarian exchange between Russia and China. The two countries hosted more than 700 joint cultural and educational events in 2023–2024, involving tens of thousands of participants from both nations. Both leaders emphasized the importance of these initiatives for fostering people-to-people ties. (Interfax, 11.04.25)
• 2025 marks the first decline in Russia-China trade since the Ukraine war began, down 9.4% year-on-year. The drop is attributed to sanctions pressure, weak Chinese demand, and market saturation. Eight new cooperation agreements were signed, ranging from customs to satellite navigation. (MT/AFP, 11.03.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:⁶

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• Russia and Belarus have announced plans to deploy the Oreshnik missile system to Belarus in December 2025, with Belarusian President Lukashenko citing European “Russophobia” and supposed military threats as justification. ISW assesses this move is part of Moscow’s reflexive control campaign, using nuclear saber-rattling to undermine Western support for Ukraine and intimidate Europe. (ISW, 10.31.25)

Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025

• President Trump’s pledge to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing—ending a 33-year moratorium—has alarmed arms control experts, who warn it could trigger a new global nuclear arms race. Critics argue the move is unnecessary and risks provoking Russia, China, and others to resume testing as well. (Financial Times, 11.01.25)
• The Poseidon, Russia’s newly tested nuclear-powered super torpedo, is designed to threaten adversaries’ coastlines with stealth and immense destructive power, although experts question the practicality of its “radioactive tsunami” effect. Its unprecedented range and speed make it harder to intercept, serving as a psychological and strategic deterrent. Seen as a “second-strike” capability, Poseidon exemplifies Russia’s continued pursuit of unconventional nuclear systems to intimidate Western powers. (Washington Post, 11.01.25)

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025

• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified that the nuclear testing ordered by President Trump will not involve nuclear explosions, but rather "noncritical" system tests of weapon components to ensure reliability and modernization. Wright emphasized Americans should not expect to see explosive tests reminiscent of the Cold War, and that the focus is on updating and verifying nuclear stockpiles rather than detonating warheads. (New York Times, 11.02.25)

Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

• Donald Trump has doubled down on the concept that he has ordered a resumption of explosive nuclear testing—which the United States has refrained from for 33 years—to match what he contends were secret nuclear underground detonations, presumably by Russia, China, and other nuclear-armed states. “They test way underground where people don’t know exactly what’s happening with the test,” Mr. Trump said in an interview that was recorded on Friday with CBS’s “60 Minutes.” “You feel a little bit of a vibration. They test, and we don’t test. We have to test.” Mr. Trump pointed to Russia, China and North Korea and others as conducting unspecified tests. In the interview Mr. Trump indicated again that the United States would be detonating the nuclear warheads as a part of the testing for the first time in decades. “Are you saying that after more than 30 years, the United States is going to start detonating nuclear weapons for testing?” asked Norah O’Donnell, the veteran CBS reporter and anchor. “I’m saying that we’re going to test nuclear weapons like other countries do, yes,” Mr. Trump answered. Mr. Trump claimed Russia and China had secretly been testing nuclear weapons without the knowledge of the global network of nuclear experts, scientists and allies who would most likely detect such a dramatic move. “You just don’t know about it,” Mr. Trump said. (New York Times, 11.03.25)
  • Mr. Trump may have been referring to an ongoing, if still classified, argument within the intelligence agencies and national laboratories about whether China and Russia have conducted what amount to small tests. By some interpretations, such tests have involved self-sustaining nuclear reactions—known in the nuclear world as “critical” tests. The evidence is vague, and experts disagree on the quality of the evidence. (New York Times, 11.03.25)
  • Chris Wright, President Trump’s energy secretary, clarified that the recent directive on nuclear weapons testing will not involve any new nuclear explosions. Appearing on Fox News’s “The Sunday Briefing,” Wright emphasized that the United States has no intention of conducting explosive nuclear tests. Instead, the plan is to continue with nonnuclear and “noncritical” tests of nuclear weapon components and systems to ensure they are working properly and to advance replacement nuclear weapons technology. Wright’s statements aimed to dispel concerns that Mr. Trump’s announcement signaled a return to Cold War-style nuclear detonations, assuring the public that there would be no mushroom clouds or test blasts at former sites like Nevada. The focus moving forward, he underscored, is on verifying, improving, and ensuring the technological advancement and credibility of the U.S. nuclear deterrent (New York Times, 11.03.25, Washington Post, 11.03.25)
  • John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, posted on social media that Mr. Trump “was right” in his assertions about Russian and Chinese nuclear testing. Mr. Ratcliffe’s post referred to a 2020 Wall Street Journal article on suspected Chinese nuclear tests on a small scale, and comments from a 2019 speech from the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency that Russia was “probably not adhering to the nuclear testing moratorium” and that Russian testing had created “nuclear yield.” (New York Times, 11.03.25)
  • Mr. Trump’s nominee to lead the U.S. Strategic Command, Navy Vice Adm. Richard Correll, told Congress “Neither China nor Russia has conducted a nuclear explosive test.” (New York Times, 11.03.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

• President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia may resume nuclear weapons testing if the U.S. moves forward with its own tests, saying Moscow will “take appropriate retaliatory measures.” At a Security Council meeting, Putin emphasized Russia’s adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty but directed officials to prepare proposals if Washington proceeds. The statement follows Trump’s recent order for the Pentagon to restart U.S. nuclear tests “on an equal basis” with rivals. (Bloomberg, 11.05.25)
  • Putin said, ““Burevestnik has surpassed all other known missiles in the world in terms of range. It also boasts high precision, achieved steadily within a pre-calculated timeframe. I believe foreign specialists were able to learn about these characteristics first-hand since during the testing of Burevestnik on Oct. 21, a NATO reconnaissance vessel was continuously present in the trial zone. We did not interfere with its operation. They were allowed to watch.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.04.25.)
  • Putin said, “Our country poses no threat to anyone. Russia, like all other nuclear powers, is building its nuclear capabilities and its strategic potential. Everything we have just discussed is routine work that was announced long ago.”(Kremlin.ru, 11.04.25.)
  • Putin said, “All our plans for creating advanced weapons systems, upgrading our defense industry, and equipping the Russian Army and Navy with the latest weaponry and technology are being implemented. I am referring to the development and deployment of the latest Avangard strategic missile system. We have developed and deployed the Oreshnik medium-range missile system and have begun serial production. We have equipped our intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles with modern systems to counter anti-ballistic missile defenses. This year, we will put the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile system through combat trials, and next year, deploy it on combat duty.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.04.25.)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• Putin said Russia has no plans to violate existing agreements on nuclear testing, but signaled that he’s ready to order them if Donald Trump moves forward with threatened U.S. atomic weapons trials. “Russia has always strictly adhered to its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and we have no plans to deviate from these commitments,” Putin said Wednesday at a televised meeting of his Security Council. Moscow would “take appropriate retaliatory measures” if the U.S. or another power conducted such a test, he said. After Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and army chief Valery Gerasimov called for preparations to resume testing in response to the U.S. president’s comments, Putin ordered his officials to seek more information about Washington’s intentions and to set out proposals for “the possible commencement of work on nuclear weapons testing.” (Bloomberg, 11.05.25)
  • Defense Minister Belousov said: “We must certainly be guided not only by the statements and remarks of politicians or American officials, but above all by the actions of the United States of America. And these actions clearly indicate Washington is actively accumulating strategic offensive weapons,,,, First, the White House has consistently withdrawn from treaties that had existed for many years to reduce and limit weapons… Second, the U.S. is rapidly modernizing its strategic offensive weapons… Third, the Americans have begun implementing the “Golden Dome” program… Fourth, by the end of this year, the U.S. Army is to deploy the new “Dark Eagle” medium-range missile complex with hypersonic missiles… “Fifth, Washington regularly conducts strategic offensive force exercises.” “I consider it advisable that preparations for full-scale nuclear weapons tests begin immediately. The Central Testing Range on Novaya Zemlya has the readiness to ensure that such tests could be carried out in the shortest time possible.” (A meeting with permanent members of the Security Council at the Kremlin chaired by Putin, Kremlin.ru, 11.05.25)
  • Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov: “The fact that the American side is not providing official clarification on President Trump’s statement about the resumption of nuclear tests does not give us grounds to assume that the United States will not soon begin preparations and then conduct nuclear weapons testing… Washington is in fact preparing to conduct tests.” (A meeting with permanent members of the Security Council at the Kremlin chaired by Putin, Kremlin.ru, 11.05.25)
  • Secretary of the Security Council Shoigu said” From analyzing all these remarks [by Trump and his ministers], it is not entirely clear to us what the U.S. will do next regarding conducting—or not conducting—nuclear weapons tests.” (A meeting with permanent members of the Security Council at the Kremlin chaired by Putin, Kremlin.ru, 11.05.25)
  • FSB director Bortnikov: said “I’d like to request time for us to thoroughly investigate everything and to prepare relevant proposals.” (A meeting with permanent members of the Security Council at the Kremlin chaired by Putin, Kremlin.ru, 11.05.25)
  • Putin: “I’ve taken note of your comments and opinions, and I’d like to say that Russia has always strictly adhered to and continues to adhere to its commitments under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and we have no plans to walk away from those obligations. At the same time, back in my 2023 Address to the Federal Assembly, I said that if the United States or other treaty signatories conduct such tests, then Russia must respond accordingly and take appropriate measures. In this context, I instruct the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, special services, and relevant civilian agencies to do everything to gather additional information on this issue, analyze it within the Security Council, and submit coordinated proposals regarding the possible start of preparations for nuclear weapons testing.” (A meeting with permanent members of the Security Council at the Kremlin chaired by Putin, Kremlin.ru, 11.05.25)
• In June 2019, the director of the Pentagon's main intelligence agency made an eyebrow-raising allegation about Russia and its nuclear programs: Moscow is testing its atomic weapons. "The U.S. government, including the Intelligence Community, has assessed that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons tests that have created nuclear yield," Lieutenant General Robert Ashley said. China may also be conducting its own tests, Ashley added, possibly by using "zero-yield" methods in which no actual atomic explosion—a fission chain reaction—takes place. (RFE/RL, 11.05.25)

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• Speaking Wednesday in Miami, Trump said he was "working on a plan to denuclearize the three of us," referring to the U.S., Russia and China. He offered no other details, and the White House press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. One official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the president's thinking, said that Trump "would like to see denuclearization" but that he "feels this action is appropriate" to maintain an effective nuclear deterrent and safeguard U.S. national security. The White House, this person said, believes that Russia and China are, in fact, "accelerating their programs." (Washington Post, 11.06.25)
• Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of the Security Council, said the Russians have no choice but to treat Trump’s comments seriously. “No one knows what Trump meant about ‘nuclear testing’ (he probably doesn’t himself),’’ Medvedev posted on X. “But he’s the president of the United States. And the consequences of such words are inescapable: Russia will be forced to assess the expediency of conducting full-fledged nuclear tests itself.” (Boston Globe, 11.06.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

• Oil supply will be hit by U.S. President Donald Trump’s sanctions on Russia’s two biggest producers, according to the CEOs of major energy companies. The curbs on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, which account for about 60% of Russia’s supply, will delay cargoes and slow down trade, TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)
• Turkey’s main oil refiners are reducing Russian crude imports after new U.S. sanctions targeted Rosneft and Lukoil. Turkish and Azerbaijani-owned refineries are now turning to suppliers in Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan, though a full halt to Russian oil is not planned. No significant import drop is yet visible from tanker data. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)
• Chinese oil refiners have slashed imports of Russian crude after new U.S. sanctions, with as much as 45% of China’s Russian oil intake affected. Prices for Russia’s ESPO blend have plunged, and trade volumes have dropped, as both state and private refineries weigh risks of running afoul of Western penalties. (Bloomberg, 11.02.25)
• Opec+ will pause planned oil production increases for the first quarter of 2026, citing concerns of a possible supply glut. The move comes as Brent crude rose to $65.28 and reflects uncertainty over the impact of new U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies. The cuts suggest skepticism that significant Russian supply will leave the market soon. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)
• The U.S. curbs on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, which account for about 60% of Russia’s supply, will delay cargoes and slow down trade, TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday. (Bloomberg, 11.03.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025

• The Russian government relaxed production requirements for oil products in an effort to stabilize the market after a wave of drone attacks on oil refineries caused fuel shortages and pushed wholesale gasoline prices up 40–50% since the start of the year. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

• Russia and Turkey are in talks to keep up the same volumes of gas supplies from Gazprom PJSC as they negotiate the renewal of two major pipeline supply deals, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts between Russia’s gas giant and Turkey’s state company Botas for combined deliveries of as much as 21.75 billion cubic meters a year are set to expire on Dec. 31. Russia and Turkey are negotiating to keep the annual flows at about 22 billion cubic meters, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public (Bloomberg, 11.05.25)
• Russian energy experts Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko wrote, “Russia currently has roughly 6.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity spread across about 40 refineries, with the biggest clusters in the Volga region, the Urals, and around Moscow.” (Foreign Affairs, 11.05.25)

Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

• Gunvor Group has withdrawn its bid to acquire Lukoil’s international assets after the U.S. Treasury labeled it “the Kremlin’s puppet” and stated it would never receive a license to operate those assets. Gunvor called the accusation “misinformed and false,” but ended its pursuit of a deal that would have nearly quadrupled its upstream production and expanded its global network. With Lukoil’s $21 billion portfolio still unsold, other suitors may emerge—though the future of these assets remains uncertain under expanded sanctions regime. (Bloomberg, 11.06.25, Financial Times, 11.07.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.07.25)

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

• Russia’s crude oil production rose slightly in Oct. to an average of 9.411 million barrels per day, up by 43,000 bpd from September but still 70,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota. New U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors are curbing exports, as buyers in India, China, and Turkey become more reluctant to handle sanctioned barrels, and intensified Ukrainian attacks further pressure Russia’s energy sector. (Bloomberg, 11.07.25)
• President Donald Trump said his administration is “looking at” granting Hungary an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil, citing the country’s lack of direct access to seaports and reliance on pipeline imports. The comment came during a White House meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who argued Budapest faces severe economic risks from the sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil. The US sanctions are intended to choke off Kremlin energy revenues amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. (Politico, 11.07.25)
  • A bipartisan group of ten U.S. senators has called on Hungary to stop buying Russian energy, expressing concern that Prime Minister Viktor Orban has shown “no sign of reducing” his country’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels as he prepares to meet with President Trump. The senators urged Hungary, which imports large volumes of Russian oil, to align with the European Union’s plan to end such imports by 2027, warning that continued purchases fund Vladimir Putin’s war and undermine Western unity. Recent U.S. sanctions have already blacklisted Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. (Bloomberg, 11.06.25)
• Hungary’s largest oil company, MOL, announced it could replace about 80% of Russian crude with alternative supplies via the Adriatic pipeline if flows through the Druzhba pipeline are disrupted. This marks a significant shift from MOL’s previous position that its refineries were fully dependent on Russian oil, but the company warned the transition would involve higher technical risks and logistics costs. (Moscow Times, 11.07.25)
• Bulgaria’s parliament passed new legislation allowing the state to take control of Lukoil’s Neftochim refinery—the largest oil refinery in the Balkans—following US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. The law enables the appointment of a special administrator to exercise shareholder rights and, if needed, sell the refinery’s shares to a new owner, as upcoming sanctions are expected to force a shutdown by cutting off payments to Lukoil. (Moscow Times, 11.07.25)

Climate change:

• For the first time since countries began gathering 30 years ago to wrestle with global warming, the United States will not send any top government officials to the annual United Nations climate summit, which kicks off on Thursday in Belém, Brazil. Those expected to stay home also include Anthony Albanese of Australia; Xi Jinping of China; Vladimir V. Putin of Russia; Sanae Takaichi of Japan; Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey; Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia and Pope Leo. (New York Times, 11.07.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russian business travel to the United States has reached a post-invasion record, with 365 business trips recorded in the third quarter of 2025—coinciding with ongoing Trump-Putin peace talks. The FSB Border Service also reported increased entries by Russian “transport service personnel,” mainly related to air travel, with 645 such arrivals in the same period. (Mediazona, 11.07.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. federal prosecutors led by U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quinones are preparing grand jury subpoenas targeting Obama-era intelligence officials involved in the 2017 assessment that found Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump. The move follows a referral by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard alleging a “treasonous conspiracy” by Obama officials, though her claims are contradicted by CIA reviews and a bipartisan Senate report. Prosecutors are also reviewing records from Jack Smith’s investigations into Trump, both of which were dismissed after Trump won reelection in 2024. (Reuters, 11.06.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s auto industry is suffering as sales and production fall sharply, with AvtoVAZ cutting output targets by 40% and shifting to a four-day workweek. Foreign companies’ departure after 2022 left Russia reliant on expensive Chinese imports, which now make up 60% of new car sales. Domestic demand remains weak, car prices have soared, and most Lada sales depend on subsidies. Government hopes for local Chinese assembly are stymied by sanctions and low profits, casting doubt on the industry’s recovery. (MT/AFP, 11.04.25)
• Russian retail chains struggling with declining sales are offloading assets at a record pace, the Kommersant business daily reported Wednesday, citing data from consulting firm NF Group. Between January and October 2025, the total value of retail market transactions surged nearly 86% year-on-year to 65 billion rubles ($710 million). The total could reach around 283 billion rubles ($3.1 billion) by the end of the year, including deals involving non-core assets Analysts at Infoline Analytics predict that operating margins among major retail chains could fall to a historic low of 1.7–1.9% in 2025. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will not deliver his annual address to the Federal Assembly in 2025, despite his constitutional obligation to do so, according to Faridaily. Three government sources said preparations for the speech have not begun, and with a major year-end press conference already scheduled in December, another large event is unlikely. The 2025 address was originally planned for February but was postponed as Putin focused on preparations for a hoped-for early summit with U.S. President Trump; a similar delay happened in 2022, during the start of the Ukraine invasion. (Meduza/Faridaily, 11.06.25)
• President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed Russia’s identity as a multiethnic, multireligious state, countering Russian ultranationalism in a Nov. 5 speech. He linked the ongoing war in Ukraine to further “unity among the peoples,” declared 2026 the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia, and called for integration of occupied Ukrainian territories and migrants to address Russia’s demographic issues. (ISW, 11.06.25)
  • On Nov. 4, Russians celebrated National Unity Day—marking more than four centuries since a popular uprising ended the Polish-Lithuanian occupation of Moscow. (Meduza, 11.04.25)
• President Vladimir Putin has appointed senior antitrust official Vitaly Korolyov as acting governor of Russia’s Tver region, filling the post more than a month after it was vacated. Korolyov, previously deputy chief of the Federal Antimonopoly Service, will focus on infrastructure, support for soldiers’ families, and regional development until the next elections in September 2026. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Journalists with RFE/RL’s Systema project have uncovered evidence that the Kremlin regularly releases pre-recorded videos of Vladimir Putin’s meetings, presenting them as recent events to maintain an image of constant activity. In April–May 2025, and again since mid-August, at least five such “canned” videos were identified based on clues like unchanging office details and officials wearing the same clothes across supposedly different dates. (Meduza, 11.05.25)
• In his last essay, “Civilization Russia,” Kremlin official Alexander Kharichev asserted that Russians value collectivism over individualism and are prepared to sacrifice themselves for the good of the state. His latest publication, “Who Are We?,” appears in the November issue of The State, a policy journal published by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). (Meduza, 11.06.25)
• Russia’s Digital Development Ministry is set to introduce a new type of SIM card for children, state media reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Russian authorities have opened a criminal case and issued a warrant for exiled economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, accusing him of failing to comply with “foreign agent” disclosure rules after he continued posting on social media without the required label. Inozemtsev, designated a “foreign agent” in May 2023 for criticism of Russian authorities, is now wanted by Russian investigators. (Zona Media, 11.01.25)
• In Russia’s first known case under a new law banning the search and viewing of “extremist” content, a medical student named Sergey was arrested just hours after looking up Ukraine’s Azov Regiment and the Russian Volunteer Corps on his phone while riding a bus. Although the court ultimately returned the case to police, as officials failed to show malicious intent, the case highlights how Russian authorities are now using telecom data to rapidly prosecute citizens for simply reading banned material online—even without sharing or posting it. (Meduza, 11.07.25)
• Russian authorities plan to impose a 24-hour "cooling-off period" on mobile internet and SMS services for Russians returning from abroad or reactivating a SIM card after 72 hours of inactivity, according to Kommersant. The move aims to counter the use of SIM cards in drones by temporarily disabling connectivity, with users able to regain access sooner by verifying via a link and captcha. Experts say the measure targets the growing risk of SIM-enabled drones in attacks, but note not all drones rely on SIM cards, limiting the policy's effectiveness. (Istories, 11.07.25)
• Russia’s Digital Development Ministry is set to introduce a new type of SIM card for children, state media reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• According to an Oct. 2025 Levada Center poll, 67% of Russians believe the country is moving in the right direction—a 3-point drop from September—while 20% say Russia is on the wrong track. President Putin’s approval rating remains high at 85%, down from 87% in September, with 13% now disapproving of his performance. (Levada, 11.07.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Vladimir Putin presided over a closed-door meeting on Nov. 7 that focused further development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with participants including Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces – First Deputy Minister of Defense Valery Gerasimov, and Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin. (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.25)
• President Vladimir Putin has signed a law shifting Russia to a year-round military draft system starting next year, aimed at expanding manpower for the war in Ukraine. While the biannual call-up periods remain unchanged, the law allows enlistment procedures such as medical and psychological screenings to occur at any time. It also limits electronic draft notices to a 30-day expiration, ending indefinite conscription holds. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Authorities in at least 15 Russian regions are recruiting reservists for new security units tasked with guarding oil refineries and key infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks, according to Vyorstka. The campaign follows a new law authorizing the deployment of reservists for domestic security, offering varying financial incentives and benefits. Officials stress these reservists will not be sent to Ukraine, but will remain in their home regions to counter sabotage, intercept drones, and protect energy facilities. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Southern Russia’s Saratov region has become the latest federal subject to reduce enlistment bonuses for soldiers signing military contracts, with one of its most populous districts slashing payments even further, media reported Wednesday. Last week, Orenburg and Saratov became the fifth and sixth regions to reduce military contract bonuses from at least 2 million rubles to the minimum legal threshold of 400,000 rubles ($5,000). (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Southern Russia’s Saratov region has become the latest federal subject to reduce enlistment bonuses for soldiers signing military contracts, with one of its most populous districts slashing payments even further, media reported Wednesday. Last week, Orenburg and Saratov became the fifth and sixth regions to reduce military contract bonuses from at least 2 million rubles to the minimum legal threshold of 400,000 rubles ($5,000). (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• Authorities in at least 15 Russian regions are recruiting residents into a new mobilization reserve to guard strategic infrastructure, including oil refineries targeted by Ukrainian drones, the exiled news outlet Vyorstka reported after reviewing government recruitment posts on VKontakte. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian-installed authorities sentenced two Colombian nationals, Alexander Ante and Jose Aron Medina Aranda, to 13 years in prison each for fighting with Ukraine’s armed forces, labeling them “mercenaries.” The pair—detained in Venezuela in 2024 while wearing Ukrainian uniforms—are among dozens of Colombians who have joined Ukraine’s ranks since Russia’s invasion. Moscow has prosecuted captured foreign fighters as mercenaries rather than as prisoners of war, denying them protections under the Geneva Conventions. (MT/AFP, 11.07.25)
• On Nov. 5, 2025, after a region-wide manhunt, soldiers in Belgorod captured one of their own, Alexey Kostrikin, who murdered a local homeowner and raped his wife in late Oct. before killing again on Nov. 3. Kostrikin is one of more than 170,000 violent criminals recruited from prisons and pretrial detention centers to fight in Ukraine. (Meduza, 11.05.25)
• Russian authorities are facing a surge of fraud cases involving so-called “black widows”—women who quickly marry soldiers before their deployment and then claim government death payouts if the men are killed in Ukraine. Lump-sum payments to families can exceed $180,000, nearly 20 times the average Russian salary. In one regional scam, courts found criminals netted 30 million rubles (about $370,000) through arranged sham marriages. Lawmakers are seeking stricter penalties as courts annul fraudulent unions and revoke payouts. (Wall Street Journal, 11.05.25)
• Russian crypto investor Roman Novak and his wife Anna were murdered in the UAE after being lured to a villa near Hatta under the pretense of a business meeting with potential investors. Novak, who claimed to be a friend of Telegram founder Pavel Durov and had previously raised around $500 million for his Fintopio crypto app before allegedly absconding with the funds, was killed when criminals seeking access to his crypto wallet found it empty. Both were dismembered, and their remains were disposed of in trash bins near a shopping mall. (Meduza, 11.07.25)
• Chechen native Said-Khamzat Baysarov, previously accused (but acquitted) of financing ISIS, is believed to be linked to the murder of 23-year-old Aishat Baimuradova in Yerevan, according to Istories and advocacy group SK SOS. Witnesses say he and another woman were allegedly seen leaving the apartment where Baimuradova’s body was found, but neither has been declared a suspect or put on a wanted list, prompting fears the case will be hushed up. (Istories, 11.04.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Kremlin has denied reports that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has “fallen out of favor” with President Putin, amid speculation that Lavrov’s recent diplomacy contributed to the cancellation of planned peace talks with the U.S. over Ukraine. While Lavrov has been absent from key recent meetings and replaced as head of Russia’s G20 delegation, officials insist he remains in his post, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling the rumors untrue. Lavrov, foreign minister since 2004, reportedly had a particularly tense call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio before the Budapest summit was canceled. (MT/AFP, 11.07.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has failed to reach a deal with investors over restructuring $2.6 billion in growth-linked GDP warrants, an agreement seen as key for unlocking further IMF and EU support for its war-battered economy. The talks ended without progress as bondholders pushed for stronger loss protection amid extreme uncertainty about the war’s duration. Ukraine’s finance minister expressed regret but said negotiations would continue, emphasizing Kyiv’s determination to maintain investor trust despite mounting financial pressures. (Financial Times, 11.06.25)
• Ukraine faces a projected budget gap of €55 billion for 2026–2027. (Meduza/Euractiv, 11.06.25)
• As the European Commission released its latest enlargement progress reports, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos warned Ukraine to maintain anti-corruption reforms to stay on track for membership, citing concerns over Kyiv’s attempt this summer to assert political control over key watchdog agencies. While praising Ukraine’s wartime reform efforts, Kos and the EU’s 111-page report stressed the need for a “robust and independent anti-corruption framework” as a critical priority. (Politico, 11.04.25)
  • The Ukrainian government has signaled its objective to provisionally close accession negotiations by the end of 2028. The European Commission is committed to support this ambitious objective but considers that, to meet it an acceleration of the pace of reforms is required, notably with regards to the fundamentals, in particular rule of law. (European Commission, 11.04.25)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he wants Ukraine to join the European Union by 2030, joining Moldovan President Maia Sandu in urging the bloc to accelerate accession talks. The statements follow a European Commission enlargement review that praised progress in Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania, but also stressed that Ukraine must make “further and steady progress” fighting corruption—a reference to Kyiv’s now-reversed attempt to curb watchdog agency independence. (The Guardian, 11.04.25)
• President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed Serhiy Demedyuk and Andriy Kononenko from their positions as deputy secretaries of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, according to official decrees published on the presidential website. No reason was given for the dismissals in the announcement. (Korrespondent.net, 11.07.25)
• The war has left Kharkiv, once Ukraine’s industrial powerhouse, struggling as Lviv in the west prospers from a major influx of people and investment. Lviv’s population has reached 1 million, buoyed by 150,000 arrivals from the east; 280 companies relocated there, and the city is developing as an industrial and rail hub. Kharkiv’s population has dropped to 1.2–1.3 million, its middle class and IT workforce shrinking, while ongoing attacks keep schools mostly online and threaten the east with lasting decline. (The Economist, 11.03.25)
• During American actress Angelina Jolie’s humanitarian visit to Ukraine on Nov. 5, military draft officers detained her driver, according to multiple reports. (Meduza, 11.05.25)
• Authorities in Kyiv have uncovered a corruption scheme involving customs officials and the head of an expert unit, who, together with inspectors, extorted $400 per car from companies importing vehicles from the U.S. by deliberately creating obstacles to customs clearance. The suspects face charges of group bribery, with $2,800 in illegal payments documented so far. (Korrespondent.net, 11.06.25)
• Ukrainian authorities detained Kyiv police chief Yuriy Rybiansky after he disappeared from work, allegedly taking over 16 million hryvnias (most in U.S. dollars) in seized funds. Rybiansky, responsible for handling confiscated assets, was found and arrested in Rivne region as investigators continue to determine the full circumstances and exact amount missing. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.06.25)
• A deputy from Vinnytsia "acquired" a girl with a disability to obtain a deferment, reports the prosecutor’s office. According to the investigation, at the end of last year, a deputy of one of the city councils reached an agreement with a family that, for a monthly payment of 3,000 UAH, he would marry their 18-year-old daughter, who has a Group II disability and is unable to comprehend her actions due to her health condition. After that, he arranged a deferment for himself, but yesterday he was detained along with an accomplice. (Antkor, 11.07.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• At a Washington summit, President Trump and Central Asian leaders announced a major critical minerals deal—including a $1.1 billion tungsten joint venture in Kazakhstan—and unveiled a range of new trade, diplomatic, and investment agreements worth over $17 billion. The summit underscored growing U.S. interest in Central Asia’s rare earths and strategic minerals, as well as efforts to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the region. Kazakhstan also committed to joining the Abraham Accords, signaling a broader U.S. push to expand partnerships and promote cooperation between Israel and Muslim-majority countries. (RFE/RL, 11.07.25)
• Kazakhstan will join the Abraham Accords, the U.S.-brokered pact normalizing ties between Israel and Muslim-majority nations, marking the first Central Asian country to do so. The move, announced as President Trump hosted Central Asian leaders in Washington, is largely symbolic—Kazakhstan already maintains diplomatic ties with Israel—but aims to deepen U.S.-Kazakh partnerships amid rising Russian and Chinese influence. Analysts say Kazakhstan seeks to boost economic cooperation with the West and position itself strategically as Astana also moves forward with new U.S. critical mineral deals. (RFE/RL, 11.07.25)
• President Donald Trump announced that Uzbekistan will invest over $100 billion in the United States over the next decade, with nearly $35 billion expected in the next three years. The investments will target sectors including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, chemicals, and IT. For context, Uzbekistan’s 2024 GDP was just under $115 billion, making the planned investment nearly equivalent to the country’s annual economy. (Bloomberg, 11.07.25)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu urged the EU not to "move goalposts" on membership, warning that changing accession criteria could discourage reform and fuel Russian influence. Sandu called for a clear path and timeline for prospective members, expressing frustration at delays partly caused by Hungary’s veto on Ukraine and Moldova’s progress. She highlighted her country’s reforms and urged the EU to demonstrate that its door remains open. (Financial Times, 11.05.25)
• Moldova on Wednesday approved a bill to cancel a 1998 agreement with Russia on cultural centers, as ties continue to deteriorate over Moscow’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.05.25)

Quotable and notable:

• Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University and Assistant Secretary of Defense in the first Clinton Administration: “How seriously should we take press claims that the U.S. is on the verge of exploding nuclear weapons—something that has not been done since 1992 and would violate the Nuclear Test Ban that it championed, which has constrained Russia, China, and others from exploding nuclear weapons? My answer is: not much… when listening to the President and even more when reading alarmist claims in the press, take Trump seriously—but not literally.” (X, 11.06.25)⁷

Footnotes

1. If that were not enough, Putin then presided over closed-door meeting on Nov. 7 that focused further development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with participants including Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces—First Deputy Minister of Defense Valery Gerasimov, and Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin.
2. Then-Soviet Russia last tested a nuclear weapon in 1990. The U.S. last tested a nuclear weapon in 1992, according to Axios. China last tested in 1996, according to IRIS.
3. You can find RM’s compilation of (I) U.S. and (II) Russian comments on the subject of nuclear tests since Trump’s Oct. 29 announcements here.
4. RM’s Nov. 5 map of territorial control in Pokrovsk, can be viewed at this link.
5. For RM’s compilation of U.S. and Russian commentaries on the impact of these sanctions visit this link.
6. For RM’s (I) U.S. and (II) Russian comments on the subject of nuclear tests since Trump’s Oct. 29 announcements follow this link.
7. For RM’s (I) U.S. and (II) Russian comments on the subject of nuclear tests since Trump’s Oct. 29 announcements follow this link.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo credit: Office of the President of Russia.