Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Nov. 4 update: In the past week, Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025, Russia has gained 34 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down slightly from the previous week’s gain of 39 square miles. In the past four weeks (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease over the 166 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 9–Oct. 7, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. As of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory—an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio—including the 7% it controlled prior to its Feb. 24, 2022, full invasion. The slower pace of Russia’s advances in recent weeks may be partly due to its widely publicized focus on encircling the critical Ukrainian fortress city of Pokrovsk, and Russia’s tactics of incremental infiltration in small groups there. Ukraine’s DeepState resource described the situation in this eastern Ukrainian city as “critical” for its defenders on Nov. 4, while RFE/RL described it as “extremely dangerous” as of Nov. 5. “We’ve lost 80% of the city, fighting for the remainder,” a senior Ukrainian officer was quoted by Ukraine’s Euromaidan outlet on Nov. 5 as saying. In contrast, Ukraine’s RBC.ua cited the Ukrainian General Staff on Nov. 5 denying that Pokrovsk is encircled. As stated earlier, the fall of Pokrovsk will be a serious setback for Ukraine, as the city is a junction for road and railway lines and would bring Russian forces closer to the Donetsk region cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.

Territorial Control (figures as of Nov. 4, 2025)

Report Card*Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +28,638 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas which Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +45,263 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)¹
• In the period of Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025: Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 166 square miles it gained in the previous four-week period of Sept. 9–Oct. 7, 2025. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 168 square miles.
• In past week (Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025): Russia gained 34 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands)—a decrease from the previous week’s (Oct. 21–28, 2025) gain of 39 square miles.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions increased one square mile this week (Oct. 28–Nov. 4, 2025) from 3 to 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–October 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.²50,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.³ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁴
• Ukraine: 14,383 (including 11,641 killed in territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and 2,742 killed in Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia).

Military vehicles and equipment⁵

• Russia: 23,313 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,546.
  • Aircraft: 353.
  • Naval vessels: 22.⁶
• Ukraine: 10,341 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,206.
  • Aircraft: 192.
  • Naval vessels: 35.⁷

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
• Ukraine: 9.5 million displaced Ukrainians, 22% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3.8 million as of September 2025.
  • International refugees: 5.7⁸ million, as of September 2025.

Economic impact⁹

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 0.6%-0.9% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01235 U.S. dollars. 5% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 14.8%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02378 U.S. dollars. -29% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.9%.

Infrastructure

• Russia:
  • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
  • As of early October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to Russian energy market data. (RM, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine:
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.¹⁰
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.
  • Russia has damaged around 40% of Ukraine’s gas production facilities as of early 2025.
  • Ukraine's energy infrastructure is operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
  • In October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter of 2025-2026. 

Popular support

• Russia: 62% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 74% support negotiated peace (along the current front line and backed by Western security guarantees)

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Nov. 4, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 115,281 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,520 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory.
2. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
   8. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
   9. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, according to Ukrainian media.
   10. Some 1 million in casualties, including 240,000 KIAs, according to British spy chief Richard Moore’s September 2025 estimate.
   11. Some 1,118,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense as reported by Ukrinform in October 2025.
3. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
4. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025.  A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
5. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.  
6. Oryx is not updating losses of Russian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
7. Oryx is not updating losses of Ukrainian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. Thus, this number excludes the Ukrainian Navy's reconnaissance ship, Simferopol, which was sunken by a Russian naval drone strike in the Danube River estuary on Aug. 28, 2025.
8. An October 2025 estimate by the UN puts the number of refugees from Ukraine in other countries at 5.75 million.
9. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
10. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff.