5 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump recently signed off on allowing intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to aid Ukraine with long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and U.S. officials are now asking NATO allies to provide similar support, The Wall Street Journal reports. “It is the first time, officials say, that the Trump administration will aid Ukrainian strikes with long-range missiles against energy targets deep inside Russian territory,”¹ according to this newspaper. In addition, the Trump administration is considering Kyiv’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles, one of the most precise U.S. weapons, which have a range of around 1,500 miles, WSJ reported.  JD Vance disclosed that the U.S. was considering Ukraine’s request this past weekend, prompting Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov to ask, “The question remains: Who can launch these missiles, even if they end up on Kyiv regime territory? Can only Ukrainians launch them, or will the American military do so?” Peskov’s boss also warned the U.S. against supplying Tomahawks in his remarks on Oct. 2. Putin said that deliveries of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation,” triggering a fresh crisis in U.S.-Russian relations.² In his reaction to these developments, Harvard University Professor Graham Allison warned that the “dangers [may] move up the escalation ladder.” “Now we will see whether the U.S. actually does it. And if so, how Russia responds,” he wrote in a short commentary for RM.
2. NATO must step up its response to Russia’s hybrid war, which is “only the beginning” and is aimed at dividing Europe, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, following recent drone incursions that shut down Denmark’s main airport and which Copenhagen suspects may have been staged on Moscow’s orders. Following the incursions, which Financial Times reported to have also shut down multiple military locations, Denmark announced it would acquire long-range precision-guided weapons to deter Russian aggression and align Danish capabilities with larger NATO allies. Frederiksen claimed this move will represent a “paradigm shift in Danish defense policy.” “I hope that everybody recognizes now that there is a hybrid war… there is only one country… willing to threaten us, and it is Russia, and therefore, we need a very strong answer back,” Frederiksen was quoted by WSJ as saying. In his turn, Russia’s ambassador Vladimir Barbin called Denmark’s reaction “pure madness” and a threat against Russian targets. “No one, anywhere in the world, has ever considered publicly threatening a nuclear power,” Barbin warned. “From now on, we will have to assume that Denmark not only considers the possibility of a direct military confrontation with Russia, but is preparing for such a scenario,” the Russian diplomat said. In his reaction to these developments, Harvard University Professor Graham Allison wondered whether and which NATO members would be prepared to do anything that would increase the risk of Russia striking back. In his reaction, Allison focused on Denmark. “Denmark is clearly waking up. The question is what are they prepared to do? And my bet is that it will mostly be talk,” he wrote in a short commentary for RM.
3. In his annual address to the Valdai Discussion Club on Oct. 2, Putin dismissed Western warnings of a Russian attack on NATO as either incompetence or dishonesty, urging European leaders to "calm down.” He claimed the Russian armed forces are confidently advancing along multiple axes in Ukraine and dismissed Trump’s descriptions of Russia as a "paper tiger," asserting that Moscow is managing to fight not just Kyiv in Ukraine, but the whole NATO bloc. As stated above, in his remarks, Putin also warned that deliveries of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would mark a “qualitatively new stage of escalation,” triggering a fresh crisis in the U.S.-Russian relations. Putin also asserted that Russia remains confident in its nuclear deterrent, but has again reiterated Moscow’s recent proposal for Russia and the U.S. to jointly extend the central limits of the New START treaty before it expires in February 2026. He also warned Russia would resume nuclear tests if another nuclear power does so and repeated Russia’s long-standing position that U.S. calls for trilateral U.S.-Russia-China nuclear arms control negotiations will fall flat unless, among other things, the arsenals of Britain and France are factored in.³ That Putin and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov have both urged the U.S. to consider Russia’s recent proposal to extend New START limits thrice in the past week and a half indicates that the Kremlin is now keen to preserve some semblance of nuclear arms control with Washington even as Russian leaders have not heard from Trump on the issue so far.
4. Russian missiles have increasingly evaded Ukraine’s U.S.-made Patriot air defenses, with officials saying upgrades allow Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles to alter trajectory and perform end-phase maneuvers that “confuse and avoid” interceptors, Financial Times reported.
5. Shipments of Russian nuclear fuel to the U.S in monetary terms amounted to slightly less than $800 million in 2024, and they are expected to reach around $1.2 billion in 2025, according to Putin. Russia remained the top supplier of nuclear reactor fuel to the U.S. last year, data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows. Russia provided 20% of the enriched uranium used in America’s fleet of commercial reactors, down from nearly 27% in 2023, according a Sept. 30 report by the EIA cited by Bloomberg.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Russian-installed management of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which has been cut off from external power for more than a week, was quoted as saying on Oct. 2 that two backup generators will be put into operation. State news agency TASS quoted the official as saying that the lack of external power posed a threat to nuclear safety, but the situation remained fully under the management’s control and all safety functions were being performed. While external power to the facility has been cut several times during the war, the current outage became the longest. (Reuters, 10.02.25, Washington Post, 10.01.25, RFE/RL, 10.01.25, New York Times, 09.29.25, MT/AFP, 09.27.25)
  • Ukraine said shelling by Russia caused the crisis, while Russia blames Ukraine. “The generators and the plant were not designed for this, have never operated in this mode for long, and we already have information that one generator has failed,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote. (Meduza, 10.01.25, Washington Post, 10.01.25)
  • A Greenpeace investigation published Oct. 1 examined satellite imagery and found no evidence of military strikes or shelling near the plant’s power lines. (Washington Post, 10.01.25)
  • Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, said:  “It is extremely important that offsite power is restored. I strongly encourage both sides to work with us and enable these essential repairs to take place.” (Meduza, 10.01.25)
• The defunct Chernobyl nuclear plant was being supplied with power as normal on Oct. 2, Ukrainian officials told AFP, a day after Zelenskyy sounded the alarm over a temporary power outage. Zelenskyy said a confinement structure at the plant was cut off from power for more than three hours after a Russian strike on an energy substation in Slavutych, a village built for personnel evacuated after the 1986 disaster. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)
• Rosatom has commissioned a new EP-250/6 furnace at the Mayak facility for the vitrification of radioactive waste—converting high-level waste into stable glass. (Rosatom, 10.03.25)
• NNSA competitively awarded a contract to BWXT Ordnance Tennessee, a subsidiary of BWX Technologies, Inc., for the licensing, design, and operation of a High Purity Depleted Uranium production capability at the contractor’s site in Jonesborough, Tennessee. ( NNSA, 09.30.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Effective Sept. 28, 2025, the United Nations officially reimposed broad sanctions on Iran under a "snapback" mechanism tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, citing Iran's "significant non-performance" of its nuclear commitments (RM, 09.28.25)
• Iran will remain part of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told reporters at a hotel in midtown New York on Sept. 26. Pezeshkian said the Trump administration had demanded his country hand over its entire enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for temporary relief from impending U.N. sanctions. (Bloomberg, 09.27.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia and Ukraine on Oct. 2 exchanged 185 captured soldiers each in the latest prisoner swap agreed during bilateral talks in Istanbul in July, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on social media. The military also said “20 civilians were returned” without providing further details. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Sept. 23–30, 2025, Russia has gained 13 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 28 square miles, which constitutes a decrease of 54%. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 169 square miles. In the past four weeks (Sept. 2–30, 2025), Russian forces gained 146 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a 34% decrease from the 222 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 5–Sept. 2, 2025), according to the Oct. 1, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 10.01.25)
• Russia intensified its long-range missile and drone strikes on Ukraine in September, an AFP analysis of data from Kyiv's Air Force showed, attacks that came amid a spate of alleged Russian airspace violations into Europe and as peace talks froze. Russia fired some 5,638 long-range drones and 185 missiles in overnight attacks throughout the month — up 36% compared with August. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)

Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

• On Sept. 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Yampil, Berezove, Kalynivka, Olhovske and Novoivanivka. (RM, 10.02.25)

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025

• On Sept. 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Kalynivske and Udachne. (RM, 10.02.25)
• Russian air strikes on several regions across Ukraine damaged critical civilian infrastructure, as a Ukrainian drone attack halted operations at a major oil-pumping station deep inside Russia. Ukrainian air defense reported shooting down or neutralizing 97 of 115 drones launched by Russia overnight. (RFE/RL, 09.27.25)

Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025

• On Sept. 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Zvirove, Verbove, near Novoivanivka and Berezove. (RM, 10.02.25)
• Russia launched hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in a massive air attack on Ukraine, killing at least four people including a 12-year-old girl in Kyiv and inflicting damage to civilian infrastructure. Ukraine was targeted with 593 attack drones and 50 missiles, including Kinzhal ballistic missiles, the Ukrainian air force said. (RFE/RL, 09.28.25, Bloomberg, 09.28.25)

Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

• On Sept. 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Poltavka and advanced near Novoivanivka,  and in the Serebryanske forestry. (RM, 10.02.25)
• A fire sparked by a Ukrainian drone strike killed a child and his grandmother in a town outside Moscow overnight, regional authorities said Sept. 29. “Last night, air defense forces shot down four drones in Voskresensk and Kolomna,” Moscow region Governor Andrei Vorobyov wrote on Telegram. Both cities are located less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) southeast of Moscow. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)
• A woman in Crimea has been arrested on charges of espionage for allegedly providing Ukrainian military intelligence with sensitive information about Russian military assets, including the locations of Black Sea Fleet ships, according to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). (Meduza, 09.29.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

• On Sept. 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Ternove and Stepove. (RM, 10.02.25)
• Russian forces attacked Ukraine’s Sumy region with drones, killing an entire family, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on Sept. 30 morning. In all, 65 drones targeted Ukraine overnight. (Meduza, 09.30.25, MT/AFP, 09.30.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

• On Oct. 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces cleared Nove Shakhove and pushed back Russian forces near Nikanorivka and Zolotyi Kolodyazh. Russian forces advanced near Novoivanivka and in Poltava. (RM, 10.02.25)
• Russia's army on Oct. 1 claimed to have captured another village in Ukraine's eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, accelerating its advance into an area that had previously been largely spared Moscow's intensive ground offensive. The Defense Ministry said its troops had captured the village of Verbove, some 13 kilometers (eight miles) into the region that Russia said it had first crossed into back in July. According to a battlefield map published by DeepState, run by Ukrainian military analysts, Russia's forces have advanced around 10 kilometers in the last 10 days in that part of the front line. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)
• Russian overnight missile strikes on Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, injured at least eight people and damaged civilian infrastructure as severe flooding hit Odesa, killing an entire family trapped in a ground-floor apartment. The Russian attack used a combination of missiles and drones, and caused damage to at least three of Kharkiv's districts, regional governor Oleh Synehubov said. (RFE/RL, 10.01.25)
• Vladimir Leontyev, the Russian-appointed “mayor” of Nova Kakhovka in Ukraine’s occupied Kherson region, has been killed in a Ukrainian drone strike, according to the area’s Kremlin-backed governor, Vladimir Saldo. (Meduza, 10.01.25)

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

• On Oct. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Olhivske, Berezove and Kalynivka, and advanced near Novoivanivka and Vorone. The Russian forces also advanced near Novoivanivka, Verbove, Bila Hora and Shandryholove. (RM, 10.02.25)
• A Russian barrage against Ukraine’s Black Sea city of Odesa left thousands without power after sudden flooding killed at least 10 people. Russian drones attacked the city overnight, cutting electricity to nearly 60,000 households, the local branch of DTEK, the country’s biggest private energy company, said on its website Oct. 2. Mayor Oleh Kiper said officials are investigating why the city warning system failed to alert residents to the recent flooding, which authorities said engulfed bomb shelters in addition to damaging housing after heavy rainfall this week. Oct. 2 has been declared a day of mourning. (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in his remarks the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “Presently, across virtually the entire line of contact, our forces are advancing with confidence. To begin from the north: the North Group of Forces – in the Kharkiv Region, the town of Volchansk, and in the Sumy Region, the residential community of Yunakovka – have recently been brought under our control. Half of Volchansk has been secured – the remaining portion will inevitably follow shortly, as our fighters complete the operation. A security zone is being established methodically and according to plan. The West Group of Forces has largely secured Kupyansk ... Another substantial town, Kirovsk, is now entirely under our control. The South Group of Forces has entered Konstantinovka – a key defensive line comprising Konstantinovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. ... The same applies to Seversk, another major community where hostilities are underway.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
  • In ISW’s estimate, Putin exaggerated Russian battlefield gains, falsely claiming two-thirds of Kupyansk had been seized—ISW assesses the real figure as only 14%. (ISW, 10.02.25)

Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

• Russia and Ukraine traded air attacks on energy infrastructure. Around midday on Oct. 3 in Russia's Orenburg region, located approximately 1,400 kilometers (840 miles) from the front lines in war-torn Ukraine, near Russia’s border with Kazakhstan, regional Gov. Yevgeniy Solntsev said "enemy drones" attacked a local industrial facility." Meanwhile Ukraine’s state-owned giant Naftogaz suffered the largest aerial attack on its gas extraction infrastructure since the start of the war as Russia increased its targeting of the energy sector at the start of the heating season. Russia attacked gas extraction facilities in the Kharkiv region in the east, as well as in Poltava in central Ukraine, in the early hours on Oct. 3 with 35 missiles and 60 drones, Chief Executive Officer Sergii Koretskyi said in a statement on the company website. Ukraine's air defense forces said the overnight Russian attack included 381 drones and 35 missiles, adding that the main targets of the strikes were energy facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. (RFE/RL, 10.03.25. MT/AFP, 10.03.25, RBC.ua, 10.03.25, Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
  • Ukrainian drone strikes have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these attacks, according to Russian energy market data cited in the Western media. Since August, Ukraine has hit 16 out of 38 Russian refineries—some multiple times—curtailing processing by around 500,000 barrels per day, according to another estimate cited in the Western media. Citing data from Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency, the Russian business daily RBC reported that nearly 40% of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, mainly due to repairs after attacks. Russia is trying to fill a 20% gasoline shortfall by boosting imports from Belarus and considering new sources in China, South Korea and Singapore. (Financial Times, 10.03.25, Bloomberg, 10.03.25, Washington Post, 10.03.25, Washington Post, 10.02.25)
• The “Espanola” brigade—a Russian ultra nationalist volunteer unit formed from football fans and active in Ukraine—announced its disbandment on Oct. 3, according to the group’s Telegram channel. The unit, reportedly financed by security chief Viktor Shendrik and the Rotenberg brothers (allies of Putin), will be reorganized: its motorcycle and reconnaissance sub-units will become separate structures, while new radio-electronic and assault detachments will be created. Recruitment is paused until late October, and the main group will integrate into Russia’s power structures. (Istories, 10.03.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump told Zelenskyy he was open to lifting restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, but he didn’t commit to doing so during a meeting Sept. 30, according to a senior U.S. official and a Ukrainian official. During the sideline discussion at the United Nations, Zelenskyy asked Trump for more long-range missiles and approval to use such weapons to strike targets on sovereign Russian territory. Trump replied that he didn’t oppose the idea, though both officials said the president didn’t make any commitments to reverse a U.S. ban on such attacks. (Wall Street Journal, 09.26.25)

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025

• Ukraine is ready to secure additional deals with the U.S. on arms deliveries, including long-range weapons, in addition to an existing $90 billion agreement, according to Zelenskyy. A Ukrainian delegation will have technical meetings in the U.S. at end of this month or in early October for the practical implementation of the weapons purchase agreement, Zelenskyy said. The broad contours were agreed to with Trump during a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, he added. (Bloomberg, 09.27.25)

Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025

• The United States is considering granting Zelenskyy’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles and allowing Kyiv to strike deep into Russia, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia confirmed over the weekend. Responding to a question about whether Trump had authorized such strikes, Kellogg replied, “I think reading what he has said, and reading what Vice President Vance has said as well as Secretary Rubio, the answer is yes. Use the ability to hit deep. There are no such things as sanctuaries.” (Meduza, 09.29.25, Washington Post, 09.29.25)

Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

• At a news conference Sept. 29, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was “carefully analyzing” the “very serious” statements made over the weekend, trying to understand who would launch the missiles and how the targets would be set. “Even if this happens, there is no panacea that can change the situation on the front lines for the Kyiv regime,” Peskov said. “There is no magic weapon. Whether it’s Tomahawks or other missiles, they will not be able to change the dynamics.” (Washington Post, 09.29.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

• Trump recently signed off on allowing intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to aid Kyiv with long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. U.S. officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, these people said. The expanded intelligence-sharing with Kyiv is the latest sign that Trump is deepening support for Ukraine as his efforts to advance peace talks have stalled. It is the first time, officials say, that the Trump administration will aid Ukrainian strikes with long-range missiles against energy targets deep inside Russian territory. the intelligence sharing means Ukraine will be better able to hit refineries, pipelines, power stations and other infrastructure far from its borders, with the goal of depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil to sustain its invasion. (Wall Street Journal, 10.01.25)
  • One of the people familiar with White House discussions described “a seismic shift in attitude” inside Trump’s inner circle. But the person cautioned the president remains opposed to using U.S. taxpayer funds to help Ukraine, preferring NATO allies purchase weapons from Washington and then supply them to Kyiv. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)
  • Kremlin officials sought to downplay reports that the U.S. is increasing intelligence sharing with Ukraine, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Oct. 2 dismissing it as “not an innovation.” Peskov also argued that no single weapon is a “magic pill” for Ukraine. Another official noted the U.S. has long helped Ukraine with targeting for long-range strikes. The comments come amid public anxiety in Russia after Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries have fueled recent gasoline shortages. (ISW, 10.02.25)
• The administration recently approved the sale to Ukraine of Extended Range Attack Munitions, an air-launched missile that can travel between 150 and 280 miles. Tomahawk cruise missiles, one of the most precise U.S. weapons, have a range of around 1,500 miles. Zelenskyy revealed last week that he asked Trump for Tomahawks. Vice President JD Vance said Sept. 28 on Fox News that the U.S. was considering Ukraine’s request. Moscow is carefully analyzing U.S. statements about delivering Tomahawks to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sept. 29. “The question remains: Who can launch these missiles, even if they end up on Kyiv regime territory?” Peskov said. “Can only Ukrainians launch them, or will the American military do so?” (Wall Street Journal, 10.01.25) The dangers are, thus, moving up the escalation ladder. Now it is to be seen whether the U.S. actually approves deliveries of Tomahawks to Ukraine with their subsequent use against targets in Russia. It will also then be seen how Russia might respond to such use.
• A Czech Republic-led initiative has quietly supplied Ukraine with over 2.5 million pieces of ammunition from non-NATO countries, relying on billions in NATO donations to keep Ukraine’s artillery supplied as Western stockpiles run low. The program’s secrecy—protecting sellers from Russian backlash—has made it a critical supply line, but now faces possible cancellation if the populist Ano party wins parliamentary elections. Ano leaders criticize the effort for a lack of transparency and high prices; others warn shifting it to NATO could jeopardize the flow. The debate reflects Ukraine war fatigue and rising domestic concerns about costs and economic pressures. (New York Times, 10.01.25)

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

• The U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with new intelligence to help guide long-range missile and drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, could help Kyiv to better map Russian air defenses and plot strike routes, bolstering the effectiveness of its existing long-range drones and missiles, said people familiar with the discussions. While no final decision has been made public, Trump has told agencies to prepare to share intelligence, the people said.  (Financial Times, 10.02.25)
• Zelenskyy confirmed on Oct. 2 that he had recently discussed Tomahawk cruise missiles with the U.S. president, weapons that have been at the top of Kyiv’s arms wishlist since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Trump is considering the idea, said the people familiar with the White House discussions. Tomahawks have a range of up to 2,500km (1,500 miles), which would open up a whole new array of targets inside Russia to Ukraine — and bring Moscow well within range. But some inside Trump’s circle are not convinced they would make a big difference to the military balance. “I don’t think a limited number of Tomahawks or sporadic deep strikes into Russia will change Putin’s mind,” the U.S. official said. (Financial Times, 10.02.25)
  • Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “As for the Tomahawks, they're a powerful weapon. ... Of course, this won't change the balance of power on the battlefield, it won't change the balance at all. I've already said: the fundamental problems of the Ukrainian armed forces—no matter how many drones you saturate them with, no matter how many seemingly impenetrable defenses you create with drones—still, if there are no personnel, there's no one to fight. ... There were ATACMS, so what? Well, yes, they caused some damage. Eventually, Russia's air defense systems adapted, despite being hypersonic, and began to shoot them down. Can Tomahawks harm us? They can. We will shoot them down and improve our air defense systems. Will this damage our relations, which have seen some light at the end of the tunnel? Of course it will. But how could it? Using Tomahawks without the direct participation of American military personnel is impossible. This would mark a completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation, including in relations between Russia and the United States.”[4] (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)

Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

• Despite interest from Kyiv and signals from U.S. officials, it is unlikely that the U.S. will send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, sources tell Reuters. Current Tomahawk inventories are committed to the U.S. Navy's needs, and the administration is exploring other missile options for Ukraine, possibly allowing allies to supply different long-range systems. Tomahawks, with a 1,550-mile range, would let Ukraine strike deep into Russian territory, which the Kremlin calls dangerously escalatory. (Reuters, 10.03.25)
• A Ukrainian delegation is in Washington this week negotiating a landmark technology-sharing agreement for drone production, which will see Kyiv provide its battle-tested UAV technology to the U.S. in exchange for royalties or joint manufacturing. Ukraine produced over 2 million drones last year—at 20–30% the Western cost. The deal would bolster U.S. technology while helping Kyiv pay for advanced U.S. weapons. There are more than 300 drone companies in Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Council of Gunsmiths, a trade group. The widespread use of Chinese parts is one problem that needs to be managed. U.S. companies that acquire Ukrainian drones and technologies can't use Chinese components because of the imperative of having secure supply lines. (Wall Street Journal, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine’s DELTA combat management system was a central tool at NATO’s REPMUS 2025 exercises, serving as the primary platform for joint command and control. DELTA coordinated over 100 unmanned platforms and demonstrated full compatibility with NATO standards, according to Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal. The system’s successful integration into multinational drills highlights Ukraine’s leadership in digital battlefield management and strengthens its interoperability with Allied forces. (Korrespondent.net, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Heorhiy Tykhyi, denied any delays in U.S. weapons deliveries due to the American government shutdown. He stated that deliveries of American arms to Ukraine are ongoing and that negotiations for a drone agreement between the two countries are proceeding as planned. “Reports about possible delays in U.S. military aid are untrue. Negotiations and supplies are continuing,” Tykhyi wrote on X. (Korrespondent.net, 10.03.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025

• Ukraine reacted with outrage on Sept. 27 after the International Paralympic Committee lifted a partial suspension of Russia and Belarus imposed since Moscow's incursion into Ukraine in 2022. (MT/AFP, 09.27.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

• Putin signed an order allowing faster sales of state-owned assets in response to international sanctions. The decree sets a special procedure for privatizations that limits pre-sale valuations to 10 days and speeds up state registration of ownership, according to the document published Sept. 30 on the government’s website. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
• Putin on Sept. 29 signed legislation withdrawing Russia from the European All Czech visa application centers in Russia have stopped accepting visa requests, according to an official notice posted on the website of VFS Global, Czechia’s visa processing operator. Going forward, Russian citizens seeking a Czech visa will need to apply directly through the Czech Embassy in Moscow, the notice says. Additionally, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský announced on Sept. 30 that Czechia has banned entry to holders of Russian diplomatic and service passports who are not accredited in the country. (Meduza, 09.30.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

• At a summit in Denmark on Oct. 1, EU leaders agreed to advance a plan to provide Ukraine with €140 billion ($164–$200 billion) in loans drawn from frozen Russian central bank assets. The initiative, championed by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, would see these funds used for Ukraine’s military needs and reconstruction, while Kyiv would not be required to repay the loans unless Russia voluntarily covers war damages. (Wall Street Journal, 10.01.25, Wall Street Journal, 10.01.25, Bloomberg, 10.01.25)
  • The Kremlin warned on Oct. 1 that it would seek the prosecution of individuals and countries engaged in the “theft” of frozen Russian sovereign assets in Europe, as European leaders convened to discuss a proposal to lend $165 billion to Ukraine based on the frozen funds. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, made no distinction between stealing the frozen Russian assets and using them to extend a loan to Ukraine without seizing them. (New York Times, 10.01.25)
• Group of Seven nations are closing in on an agreement to significantly increase sanctions on Russia over its reluctance to end the war against Ukraine, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg. “We are aligned on the need to act together and believe that now is the time for a significant coordinated escalation of measures to bolster Ukraine’s resilience and critically impair Russia’s ability to wage war against Ukraine,” the draft says. (Bloomberg, 10.01.25)
• France is probing an EU-sanctioned, Russian-linked oil tanker for "serious offenses," President Emmanuel Macron said Oct. 1 — stopping short of confirming reports of a connection to mysterious drone flights in Denmark. French authorities have opened a probe into the Boracay, a Benin-flagged vessel anchored off France's Atlantic Coast that has been blacklisted by the European Union for being part of Russia's sanction-busting "shadow fleet." According to the specialist website The Maritime Executive, the vessel is suspected of being involved in mystery drone flights that disrupted air traffic in Denmark in September. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25, Wall Street Journal, 10.01.25)
  • A French court is to try the Chinese captain of the Boracay, a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet," early next year after it was intercepted off France, prosecutors said Oct. 2, in a move seen as a message to Moscow over its efforts to skirt Western oil sanctions. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)[5]
• Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), the largest Western lender still operating in Russia, has failed once again to sell its Russian business and withdraw from the country, Reuters reported Oct. 1, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The bank had found a local buyer for its stake, but Russian authorities blocked the deal out of fears that transferring ownership to local investors could trigger Western sanctions against RBI, a crucial financial channel for Moscow, one of Reuters’ sources said. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

• The European Union’s bid to unlock funding for Ukraine from frozen Russian central bank assets faced resistance as Belgium raised legal questions about the plan to tap financing from up to €185 billion ($217 billion) held on its territory (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)
• The European Union is considering unfreezing 2 billion euros ($2.3 billion) worth of shares in Austrian construction group Strabag once linked to sanctioned Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska and handing them to Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) as compensation for damages ordered by Russian courts (MT/AFP, 10.03.25)
• The European Commission opted against including a Russian tourist visa ban when it sent its latest sanctions proposal to EU member states earlier this month. But now, the European Commission has instead proposed another measure that would at least theoretically limit the movement of Russian diplomats inside the EU if it were adopted. (RFE/RL, 10.02.25)
• Poland ordered a Russian ship to leave its waters as Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of an increase in a number of incidents on the Baltic Sea involving Moscow. A Russian vessel was spotted within 300 meters (328 yards) from a pipeline that sends gas inland from a sea platform on Oct. 1 morning. (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)

Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

• The European Union has extended anti-Russian sanctions targeting “hybrid actions” for another year, until Oct. 9, 2026. The renewed measures apply to individuals—including pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk—and entities held responsible for Russia’s destabilizing activities abroad. The EU cited Russia’s ongoing hybrid threats, including information manipulation and interference against the bloc, its member states and partners, as the reason for the extension. (RBC.ua, 10.03.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

• In his Sept. 30 address to a collection of U.S. generals and admirals, Trump expressed deep frustration over the continued war in Ukraine, despite his efforts to broker a peace agreement, including with a one-on-one meeting in Alaska. Trump said that he had thought the war in Ukraine would be the “easiest” one to end, but it “turned out to be the hardest” of all conflicts to solve. Trump also called Putin “a paper tiger” for failing to win the war, which began with a full-scale invasion more than three years ago. “I’m so disappointed in President Putin,” Mr. Trump said. “We met in Alaska and had a good meeting. Then he went back and started sending drones into Kyiv.” (New York Times, 09.30.25)

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

• Zelenskyy warned European leaders on Oct. 2 that Russia has the ability to violate airspace anywhere on the continent and urged them to develop defense forces to fend off drones. (RFE/RL, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “You started with a visit to the United States, to Alaska. President Trump and I discussed practically nothing there, not even the bilateral agenda; we only discussed possibilities and ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Overall, that's already a good thing. In my opinion, President Trump—we've known him for a long time—is a bit of a shocker, we all see it, everyone around the world sees it, but he's basically the kind of person who knows how to listen, oddly enough. He listens, hears and responds. So, he's basically a comfortable conversationalist, I'd say. And the fact that we made an attempt to find, explore and ultimately find possible solutions to the Ukrainian crisis—in my opinion, that's a good thing. That's the first thing. Second. Still, one way or another, the discussion in this case, albeit superficially, was about restoring Russian-American relations, which are not just at an impasse, but at their lowest point in memory. And it seems to me that the very fact of our meeting, the very fact of the visit—and I am grateful to the President for the way he organized it—all of these are signs aimed at thinking about restoring bilateral relations. And in my view, this is good for everyone: for us bilaterally and for the entire international community.”[6] (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
  • Responsibility for ending the war in Ukraine rests with European countries, Putin said at the Valdai Discussion Club. “I believe that good will shall prevail. We have no doubt about this,” he said. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025

• Denmark registered more drone activity at military sites including its biggest air force base, the latest in a spate of incidents that have raised alert levels in the country. Drones were observed “at several of Danish Defense facilities last night,” Denmark’s military said in a statement Sept. 27. “Several capabilities were deployed,” it said, without elaborating. (Bloomberg, 09.27.25)

Monday, Sept. 29, 2025

• Denmark is receiving security assistance from NATO allies ahead of a high-level meeting of European leaders in Copenhagen this week after a wave of drone incursions that authorities say may be linked to Russia. Germany, France and Sweden are sending reinforcements, with troops, anti-drone capabilities, radar systems and a helicopter among the support dispatched to the Danish capital after a string of drone incidents disrupted civilian and military sites over the past week. The plans have gained urgency following a wave of incursions into NATO airspace by Russian aircraft. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, laid out its proposals in a paper published Sept. 29 as part of a strategy to get the bloc to close gaps in the continent’s defense by 2030. (Bloomberg, 09.29.25, Bloomberg, 09.29.25)
• Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Sept. 29 Russia was likely behind mysterious drone flights over several Scandinavian airports ahead of an EU summit in Copenhagen. Speaking to broadcaster TV4, Kristersson said "the likelihood of this being about Russia wanting to send a message to countries supporting Ukraine is quite high" but stressed that "nobody really, really knows." He added that "we have confirmation" that drones that entered Polish airspace earlier in September were Russian. "Everything points to [Russia], but then all countries are cautious about singling out a country if they are not sure. In Poland, we know that's what it was," he said. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

• NATO must step up its response to Russia’s hybrid war, which is “only the beginning” and is aimed at dividing Europe, the Danish prime minister has warned. Mette Frederiksen told the Financial Times that there was a need to discuss “more deeply” within the western defense alliance on how to respond to Moscow’s hostile acts, ranging from airspace violations to sabotage. “We need to be very open about [the fact] that it probably is only the beginning,” she said. “We need all Europeans to understand what is at stake and what’s going on. When there are drones or cyber attacks, the idea is to divide us.” (Financial Times, 10.01.25)[7]
• Finland will not be intimidated by attempts to destabilize it and the rest of Europe with drones and other so-called “hybrid” attacks, Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP on Sept. 30. Helsinki is “taking a very calm approach” as speculation mounts about what could come next, Hakkanen told AFP. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• An eight-minute closing of the airspace over Aalborg airport in Denmark and air base on Sept. 30 morning due to potential drone activity shows how cautious authorities are after a week of near-continuous suspected sightings. The government has now also raised its threat level for the energy industry, imposing stricter security requirements on facilities. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
• Unidentified drones were spotted in northern Germany in late September, Der Spiegel reported on Oct. 1, citing an internal report from a German government agency. The drones, which were seen in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, were likely conducting surveillance of critical infrastructure, according to the newspaper. (Meduza, 10.01.25)
• Poland detained a Ukrainian national suspected of involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The man, identified as Volodymyr Z., is wanted under a European arrest warrant issued by a German court, RMF FM radio reported, without saying where it got the information. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

• Last week’s drone incursions followed an escalation in animosity between Denmark and Russia. Copenhagen said two weeks ago that it would add to its arsenal long-range precision-guided weapons able to strike behind enemy lines. Frederiksen called the decision a “paradigm shift in Danish defense policy” meant to align the country’s arsenal with those of larger NATO allies, and deter Russia from expanding its war in Ukraine. The Russian ambassador to Denmark called the decision “pure madness,” and said it amounted to a threat against targets in Russia. “No one, anywhere in the world, has ever considered publicly threatening a nuclear power,” the envoy, Vladimir Barbin, said on Telegram. “From now on, we will have to assume that Denmark not only considers the possibility of a direct military confrontation with Russia, but is preparing for such a scenario.” “I hope that everybody recognizes now that there is a hybrid war, and one day it’s Poland, the other day it’s Denmark and next week, it will probably be somewhere else,” Frederiksen told reporters in Copenhagen on Oct. 1. “There is only one country… willing to threaten us, and it is Russia, and therefore, we need a very strong answer back.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.01.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2 regarding Trump’s description of Russia as a paper tiger: “A paper tiger... I already said that all these years Russia hasn't been fighting the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or Ukraine, but practically all NATO countries. Speaking of... Yes, you asked what's happening along our line of contact. Well, I'll get back to the ‘tigers’ now. ... if we're fighting the entire NATO bloc, and we're moving forward, advancing, feeling confident, and it's a paper tiger—what is NATO itself then? What does it even represent?”[8] (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “Our country, striving to eliminate the grounds for bloc confrontation and to create a common space of security, twice declared even its readiness to join NATO. Initially this was done in 1954, during the Soviet era. The second time was during the visit of U.S. President Bill Clinton to Moscow in 2000 – I have already spoken about this – when we also discussed this topic with him. On both occasions, we were essentially refused outright. I reiterate: We were ready for joint work, for non-linear steps in the sphere of security and global stability. But our Western colleagues were not prepared to free themselves from the shackles of geopolitical and historical stereotypes, from a simplified, schematic view of the world. I also spoke publicly about this when I discussed it with Mr. Clinton, with President Clinton. He said, ‘You know, it’s interesting. I think it’s possible.’ And then in the evening he said, ‘I consulted with my people – it’s not feasible, not feasible now.’ ‘When will it be feasible?’ And that was it, it all slipped away.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25) 
• Speaking at Russia’s annual Valdai Discussion Club Forum, Putin joked about the EU’s suspicions that Moscow is behind the recent uptick in unidentified drone sightings in the bloc. “I won’t send any more [drones],” the Russian president said. “Not to France, not to Denmark, and not to Copenhagen.” (Meduza, 10.03.25)

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

• Zelenskyy warned European leaders on Oct. 2 that Russia has the ability to violate airspace anywhere on the continent and urged them to develop defense forces to fend off drones. "If the Russians dare to launch drones against Poland, or violate the airspace of northern European countries, it means this can happen anywhere," Zelenskyy told European leaders gathered for a summit on security and defense in Copenhagen. "In Western Europe, in the south, we need fast and effective response and defense forces that know how to deal with drones," he said. (RFE/RL, 10.02.25)
• Poland reported an unspecified incident on its Baltic coast, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said as he met with European leaders to discuss a raft of hybrid attacks from Russia. “We have another incident now, close to port of Szczecin,” Tusk said, without elaborating during a panel discussion at the European Political Community summit in Copenhagen Oct. 2. (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “The ruling elites of united Europe continue to whip up hysteria. They claim that war with the Russians is almost at the doorstep. They repeat this nonsense, this mantra, over and over again... I think they [European elites] cannot possibly believe this. They cannot believe when they are saying that Russia is about to attack NATO. It is simply impossible to believe that. And yet they are making their own people believe it. So, what kind of people are they? They are either entirely incompetent, if they genuinely believe it, because believing such nonsense is just inconceivable, or simply dishonest, because they do not believe it themselves but are trying to convince their citizens that this is true. What other options are there? Frankly, I am tempted to say: calm down, sleep peacefully, and deal with your own problems.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “We are closely monitoring the growing militarization of Europe. Is it just rhetoric, or is it time for us to respond? We hear, and you are aware of this as well, that the Federal Republic of Germany is saying its army must once again become the strongest in Europe. Well, alright, we are listening carefully and following everything to see what exactly is meant by that... However, if anyone still feels tempted to challenge us militarily – as we say in Russia, freedom is for the free – let them try. Russia has proven time and again: when threats arise to our security, to the peace and tranquility of our citizens, to our sovereignty and the very foundations of our statehood, we respond swiftly.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “You see, Russia’s very existence displeases many, and all wish to partake in this historic endeavor – inflicting a ‘strategic defeat’ upon us and profiting thereby: taking a bite here, a bite there... That will not happen.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Russian military intelligence (GRU) is likely conducting hybrid operations in Poland, Germany and Lithuania to sow fear and discord within NATO, with possible false-flag actions planned in Poland, according to Polish and Lithuanian officials. (ISW, 10.02.25)

Friday, Oct. 3, 2025

• Drone sightings forced Munich International Airport to shut down overnight Oct. 2 into Oct. 3, disrupting 32 flights and delaying nearly 3,000 passengers. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt called the closure a "wake-up call," as drones increasingly threaten European aviation, with similar disruptions at airports in Denmark, Norway, and Poland. Some incidents are linked to Russian drones entering EU and NATO airspace in Poland, Romania and Denmark. In response, the EU proposed a "drone wall" defense network for its eastern borders. While backed by Poland and Baltic states, the plan faces questions over cost and feasibility from Western and Southern leaders. The, however, flight operations have been running normally since 5 a.m. local time, airport officials said Oct. 3. (Washington Post, 10.03.25, MT/AFP, 10.03.25, Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
• Russia is attempting to jam U.K. military satellites on a regular basis, according to the head of U.K. Space Command. (Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
• A Helsinki court ruled that Finland cannot prosecute the crew of the Eagle S oil tanker accused of cutting underwater electricity and data cables in the Baltic Sea, as the alleged sabotage took place outside Finnish territorial waters. The captain and two pilots, part of a “shadow fleet” used by Russia to evade oil sanctions, had been charged in the high-profile case but were allowed to leave Finland after trial. The outcome underscores the legal hurdles Europe faces in holding hybrid attackers accountable as drone and cable sabotage incidents rise across the region. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A recently released 800-page cache of contracts and correspondence shows that Russia is helping China prepare its military for a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to ato RUSI. The documents indicate that Moscow agreed in 2023 to sell a suite of military equipment to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including assault vehicles, anti-tank guns, and airborne armored personnel carriers. (RFE/RL, 10.01.25)
• Russia expects its natural gas sales to China to be less lucrative than westbound exports, underscoring the downside to the Kremlin’s growing reliance on the Asian nation. Gas prices for China are expected to be at least 27% lower than for shipments going to Turkey and its few remaining clients in Europe over the next three years, according to an Economy Ministry outlook submitted alongside the draft budget to the State Duma on Sept. 29. For 2025, the price gap is even wider at 38%. (Bloomberg, 09.29.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “You know, I can only tell my Chinese brothers and sisters that we are on the right path. We must maintain this, we must cherish the relationship that has developed between us and do everything in our power, wherever we may be—at the pinnacle of power, at the machine shop, in the theater, in film, or in higher or secondary education—to strengthen this interaction. It is of the utmost importance for both the Chinese and Russian people.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)

Missile defense:

• Russian missiles have increasingly evaded Ukraine’s U.S.-made Patriot air defenses, with officials saying upgrades allow Iskander-M and Kinzhal missiles to alter trajectory and perform end-phase maneuvers that “confuse and avoid” interceptors. Ukraine’s interception rate of ballistic missiles dropped from 37% in August to just 6% in September despite fewer launches. Recent strikes destroyed key military and drone production sites around Kyiv, and even damaged the EU delegation and British Council offices. Ukrainian officials warn Russia is now targeting energy infrastructure with improved missile tactics as winter approaches, while Kyiv pleads for more advanced air defense systems. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)

Nuclear arms:

• In his Sept. 30 address to a collection of U.S. generals and admirals, Trump called nuclear weapons “a second N word” as he warned against the buildup of weapons by China and Russia’s modernization of its arsenal. "I moved a submarine or two, I won't say about the two, over to the coast of Russia just to be careful, because we can't let people throw around that word," Trump said. The prospect of using such weapons, he said, was “horrendous.” He added that using nuclear weapons on American adversaries “is something we don’t ever want to even have to think about.” (New York Times, 09.30.25, Washington Post, 10.01.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2 with regard to New START: “If the U.S. administration agrees to our proposal, then I know what will happen next within a year, but what will happen beyond that is hard to say. The dialogue is not easy; we know the pitfalls of this dialogue. First, we have acquired many modern, high-tech weapons systems. Take the Oreshnik missile system, for example. ... We recently demonstrated that such weapons are not strategic. Now we hear some experts in the U.S. saying: no, these are still strategic weapons. ... We may acquire other systems as well. We haven't forgotten anything we planned; the work is ongoing, and there will be results. That's the first part. The second is tactical nuclear weapons... They talk about strategic weapons, but tactical ones... we have more of them, that's true. This needs to be sorted out. ... Overall, we are doing well; we are confident in our nuclear shield; we know what to do tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. ... There is a third aspect – international. We are constantly being told: you will persuade China, so that China will also... We've joined this system of strategic offensive arms limitation. Why us? Anyone who wants to involve China, go ahead and negotiate with China. What about us? But we have a question: if China needs to be involved, why then leave out the nuclear potential of Great Britain and France? ... If they want to lock in the status quo for a year, we're ready, we want to... But we're ready to take a break and, in this case, I'm not afraid to say it, work with our American colleagues if they deem it appropriate."[9] (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2: “Some are preparing these [nuclear weapons] tests, we see it, we know it, and if they happen, we will do the same.”[10] (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25)
• Speaking at the U.N., Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “Russia and the United States bear a particular responsibility for the state of global affairs and for avoiding risks that could drag humanity into a new war.” Lavrov stated, “President Putin put forward a new initiative, declaring Russia’s readiness to adhere to the central quantitative limits under the New START Treaty for one year after it expires on Feb. 5, 2026, provided that the United States reciprocates and refrains from steps that disrupt the current balance of deterrent potentials.” He added, “We believe that the implementation of our proposal will create conditions for avoiding a strategic arms race, maintaining an acceptable level of predictability in the sphere of nuclear missiles, and improving Russia-U.S. relations in general.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 09.27.25) That Russian leaders have in less than a week twice reminded U.S. of Russia’s recent proposal to extend New START limits beyond the expiry date next February, indicated Kremlin is keen to preserve some semblance of nuclear arms control with Washington even as Trump has been mum on the issue so far.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• At the “World Atomic Week – 2025” forum, Russia’s Rostekhnadzor hosted a session on “Modern Horizons of Nuclear Technology Development.” Rostekhnadzor chief Alexander Trembitsky highlighted increasing digitalization and the cautious adoption of AI as a future “independent expert” in regulatory frameworks. All agreed on the need for thoughtful AI integration and greater global partnership. (Gosnadzor, 09.25.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s seaborne crude exports stuck at a 16-month high in the past four weeks, with Trump so far failing to convince remaining buyers to ditch Moscow’s oil. Four-week average shipments from the country’s ports were 3.62 million barrels a day up to Sept. 28, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, matching the highest since May 2024. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
• The Russian government expects the oil and gas industries’ contributions to the national budget this year to drop to the lowest since the pandemic of 2020 after prices for its fuels dipped and the ruble strengthened. Moscow will gather about 8.65 trillion rubles ($100 billion) in taxes from the oil and gas industry, according to amendments to Russia’s 2025 budget. That’s about 22% less than last year’s revenues, according to the amendments, published Sept. 29 on the website of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the parliament. (Bloomberg, 09.29.25)
  • Russia’s fuel market is facing a shortfall equal to about 20% of monthly gasoline demand — roughly 400,000 tons out of the 2 million consumed — the Kommersant business daily reported, and consumers are starting to feel it. Roughly 1 in 50 gas stations have stopped selling gasoline as nationwide production has dropped by about 10%. (Washington Post, 10.02.25)
• Russia banned diesel exports for some companies and extended restrictions for gasoline sales abroad as Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt nation’s refinery runs. The government prohibited exports of diesel, marine fuel and other gasoils only for resellers — companies that buy diesel inside Russia and then ship it abroad — until the end of the year, according to a statement in its Telegram channel. The government also extended its gasoline-export ban for both producers and resellers of the fuel, until Dec. 31, according to the statement. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
• The Russian government seeks to scrap tariffs on gasoline imports and temporarily allow a banned chemical additive to stabilize the domestic fuel market, the Kommersant business daily reported Oct. 1. The proposed measures could redirect at least 350,000 tons of gasoline and 100,000 tons of diesel per month to the domestic market, Kommersant cited a letter from Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin sent last Wednesday, Sept. 24, as saying. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)
• Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant increased gas production to record levels in September as its cargoes appear to find buyers in China. Natural gas output at the Novatek PJSC-led facility averaged 17.9 million cubic meters a day during most of September, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. That’s the highest daily average since the facility was launched in December 2023 and a 14% increase from August levels, the previous high. (Bloomberg, 10.01.25)
• Taiwan became the world’s largest importer of Russian naphtha in the first half of 2025, bringing in 1.9 million tons—six times 2022’s average and valued at $1.3 billion, according to CREA. Formosa Petrochemical accounted for 96% of those imports, with its share of Russian naphtha rising from 9% in 2021 to 90% in 2025. The surge, which may involve paying above the G7 price cap, raises economic security risks and has drawn warnings from lawmakers about national vulnerability and U.S. criticism for funding Russia’s war economy. (Financial Times, 10.01.25)
• A fire broke out at one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in the Yaroslavl region north of Moscow on Oct. 1 morning in what authorities described as a “man-made” incident unrelated to Ukrainian drone strikes. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak counterpart Robert Fico expressed defiance over pressure to quit Russian oil during a joint appearance on the border of the two countries Sunday. “No one should tell us where to get our gas and oil,” Slovak leader Fico told a small crowd in Esztergom, Hungary, “because according to international law, it is a sovereign country that decides on its own energy mix.” Fico backed Orban’s view, calling the European Union’s ambition to cut off Russian energy a “political and ideological decision” that won’t just hit Slovakia and Hungary hardest, but will damage all of Europe. (Bloomberg, 09.28.25)
• Turkey’s energy minister has said buying Russian oil is a commercial decision made by refiners, signaling reluctance to abide by U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls to cut energy ties with Moscow. “This is essentially the decision of private companies, distributors and refiners,” Alparslan Bayraktar told Turkish broadcaster CNNTurk late Oct. 2. (Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that the Russian owners of NIS AD, the country’s main oil company and sole refiner, are prepared to sell a stake in the company to avoid it getting sanctioned by the U.S. (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russia remained the top supplier of nuclear reactor fuel to the U.S. last year, even after a ban on enriched uranium imports from the country became law in May, data from the Department of Energy shows. Russia provided 20% of the enriched uranium used in America’s fleet of commercial reactors, down from nearly 27% in 2023, according to a Sept. 30 report by the Energy Information Administration. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
  • Russia remains a stable nuclear fuel supplier to the U.S. market, Putin said, while answering questions from participants at a plenary session of the Valdai International discussion Club. The shipments in monetary terms amounted to slightly less than $800 million in 2024, and they are expected to reach around $1.2 billion in 2025. The forecast based on the available applications for 2026 is over $800 million. (Interfax, 01.02.25)
• The U.S. is rapidly expanding its LNG export capacity, with three new terminals approved last month and five more expected by year-end, aiming to more than double exports by 2030. This rush—fueled by Trump’s lifting of Biden-era restrictions—has sparked oversupply concerns among energy giants like Shell and TotalEnergies, who warn that global LNG markets may face a glut and price drops. While Asian demand is seen as a long-term driver, China has not imported U.S. LNG since February, opting for domestic and Russian sources. Some analysts predict lower prices will benefit European and Asian buyers in the short term. (Financial Times, 10.03.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In his remarks the Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Oct. 2, Putin praised Michael Gloss, an American and the son of a deputy CIA chief, who joined the Russian military and was killed in action in Ukraine in 2024. He said he had awarded Gloss with a medal, which he handed to Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff during his visit to Moscow. “Although he was an American, he was a Russian soldier,” Putin said of Gloss (ABC, 10.02.25, Kremlin.ru 10.02.25)
• The Kremlin said Oct. 1 that Russia, like the United States, is committed to strengthening its military while also seeking peace, following U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks to American forces. In a speech at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia, Hegseth told hundreds of hastily gathered top generals and admirals Sept. 30 that the U.S. must “prepare for war” to “ensure peace.” “We, too, are committed to strengthening our Armed Forces while fully supporting peace and remaining open to resolving all issues, including the Ukrainian crisis, through diplomatic and political means,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “The saying ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’ is well-known and often used by politicians,” he told reporters, adding that the Kremlin closely monitors statements made by Trump. (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)
• The Trump administration has suspended all Voice of America news broadcasts and furloughed its roughly 80 remaining journalists amid a government shutdown, a stark departure from past shutdowns when news coverage to countries like Russia, China and Iran was maintained as essential to national security. (The Boston Globe, 10.02.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s military budget for 2025 will fall for the first time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, dropping to about $156 billion from over $163 billion this year, due to economic strain and slowing growth. Factoring in up to 7% inflation, the real reduction is larger. Despite the cut, defense spending remains nearly triple prewar levels and nearly quadruple those of 2021. Meanwhile, the government is raising VAT to 22% and cutting some non-defense expenditures to fill a rising deficit, with oil and gas revenues projected to drop to around $100 billion this year. Even as Russia moves to slightly slow war spending, its military budget remains nearly quadrupled from the levels of 2021, and the budget of more than $160 billion this year represents a post-Soviet high. (New York Times, 10.01.25)  It is important to keep in mind that the decrease from $163 billion to $156 constitutes less than 5%. Such a minor decline is “essentially noise” and unlikely to result in a significant decline of Russia’s position among the world’s top defense spenders, according to Harvard University Professor Graham Allison. Moreover, even if a decline does occur, the $163 billion sum still signals Russia's budgetary commitment  to another year of war, Allison notes.
• Russia’s oil proceeds going to the state budget shrank by a fifth in September compared with a year earlier, following a drop in global crude prices and a strengthening of the nation’s currency. Oil-related taxes declined by almost 20% to 483.5 billion rubles ($5.9 billion) last month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Oct. 3. Combined oil and gas revenue fell by 25% to 582.5 billion rubles. (Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
• Authorities in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar have unveiled what they call the country’s first school for children dedicated to assembling and operating drones. The program targets local students in grades 7-11 who will be selected through tests measuring fine motor skills and technical aptitude. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• Russia marked the third anniversary of its annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions with patriotic events involving schoolchildren, kindergartners and public employees, the state youth agency Rosmolodyozh said Sept. 30. According to the agency, around 1.6 million people took part in more than 13,000 commemorations held under the slogan “Thank You, #WeAreTogether.” (MT/AFP, 10.01.25)
• A Moscow court ordered the nationalization of billionaire Denis Shtengelov’s snack empire, after claims from Russian prosecutors that it provided support to Ukraine, Interfax reported. The court ruled in favor of the expropriation of KDV Group after Shtengelov and his father were deemed to be an extremist organization, the news agency reported, citing the hearing. (Bloomberg, 10.02.25)
• Russia plans to roll out an app to measure how strongly university students embrace “traditional values,” the Vedomosti business newspaper reported Sept. 30, citing a government procurement notice. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• Up to 1,000 people lined up outside Putin’s official reception office near the Kremlin on Saturday to submit written complaints on social and environmental issues, in what was reported as one of the largest opposition-linked gatherings since early 2024. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)\
• Nizhny Novgorod police detained the late journalist Irina Slavina's daughter as she tried to lay flowers outside the regional police headquarters in memory of her mother, human rights watchdog OVD-Info reported on Oct. 2 (MT/AFP, 10.03.25)
• Europe’s top human rights body has approved the creation of a Platform for Dialogue with Russian democratic forces in exile, it reported Oct. 2. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)
• Telegram founder Pavel Durov revealed in an interview released on Sept. 30 that he suspects he survived a poisoning attempt in 2018. (Meduza, 09.30.25)
• Russian investigators have arrested the deputy chairman of the liberal Yabloko party on criminal charges of spreading “false information” about the military, law enforcement authorities said Oct. 1. The Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, said the charges against Maxim Kruglov were linked to an April 2022 Telegram post in which he shared so-called “false information” about the Russian military's actions against civilians in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.02.25)
• Authorities in St. Petersburg are planning a major expansion and modernization of the city’s crematorium, a project that will make it the largest in Europe, the Pokhoronny Trast Telegram channel reported Sept. 30. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called for State Duma deputy and former Russian commander in Chechnya, Gen. Vladimir Shamanov, to be put on trial for crimes against the Chechen people. (Istories, 10.03.25)
• According to a June 2025 Levada Center poll, Russians’ pride in various national achievements has grown steadily since the late 1990s. Pride in Russian history reached 93% (up 21 points since 2003), literature and arts 87% (up 22 points), and sports 85% (up 20 points). Seventy-five percent expressed pride in Russia’s political influence globally—a 49-point rise since 1996—while 69% cited economic achievements (up 55 points), and 61% were proud of the state of democracy in Russia (up 48 points). (Levada, 09.30.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia began its fall military draft on Oct. 1, aiming to conscript 135,000 new soldiers—2,000 more than last year. According to the Defense Ministry, Moscow, Mari El, Ryazan region, and Sakhalin will now issue call-up notices exclusively via electronic summons. The autumn draft is part of the regular annual conscription and comes as Russia continues to expand its military amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. (Istories, 10.03.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Sept. 30 that it had arrested a teenager in the republic of Mordovia on suspicion of organizing railway arson attacks with the help of minors. The 18-year-old Russian citizen, born in 2007, allegedly carried out the acts on behalf of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence agency in exchange for money, the FSB said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• The deputy governor of southern Russia’s Krasnodar region has been arrested on corruption suspicions hours after announcing he was stepping down to fight in Ukraine, local media reported Sept. 29, citing law enforcement sources. Alexander Vlasov is accused of large-scale fraud and abuse of power in a commercial organization, according to the Kommersant business daily. He also reportedly faces charges of embezzling donations meant for Russian volunteer fighters in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• The former deputy governor of Russia’s Sverdlovsk region has been detained as part of a sweeping investigation into corruption surrounding local utility companies, Interfax reported Sept. 29, citing his lawyer. Oleg Chemezov was detained on claims of fraud and is expected to be formally charged in the city of Yekaterinburg on Sept. 30, according to lawyer Maria Kirillova. Chemezov is reportedly among 14 individuals and 80 companies named as co-defendants in the lawsuit from the Prosecutor General’s Office seeking to seize companies tied to business partners Alexei Bobrov and Artyom Bikov. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)
• Moscow police have arrested businessman Ibragim Suleimanov on suspicion of involvement in the 2004 murder of the former head of Russia’s now-defunct government bankruptcy body Georgy Tal. (MT/AFP, 10.03.25)
• An 18-year-old former student stabbed and injured at least two people at a college in northwestern Russia’s Arkhangelsk region, law enforcement authorities said Sept. 29. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)

• The death toll from alcohol poisoning in western Russia this month rose to 25 after lethal methanol levels were confirmed in six more bodies, investigators said Saturday. Three suspects were detained and are awaiting trial, according to the investigators. (MT/AFP, 09.27.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Putin has cautioned the U.S. against pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil, saying New Delhi will never allow itself to be humiliated in front of anyone and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not take such a step. Putin also said that he is looking forward to his visit to New Delhi in early December to meet his "friend" Modi. (Economic Times, 10.03.25)
• The Kremlin on Sept. 30 joined other countries in expressing support for Trump's 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza. “Russia always supports and welcomes any efforts by President Trump aimed at ending this ongoing tragedy,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a daily briefing call. “Of course, we want this plan to be implemented and for it to help bring events in the Middle East to a peaceful conclusion,” Peskov added. (MT/AFP, 09.30.25)
• Austria expelled a Russian diplomat on suspicion of espionage amid an investigation into a long-time OMV employee who is suspected of passing company secrets to the Kremlin. The envoy has already left the country after Russia declined to lift his diplomatic immunity to allow the OMV espionage probe, prompting the Austrian Foreign Ministry to declare him persona non grata, a government spokesperson said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)
• French photojournalist Antoni Lallican, 37, was killed on Oct. 3 in Ukraine’s Donbas region during a drone attack, European journalists’ associations confirmed. Lallican is the first journalist known to have been killed by a drone strike in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. Macron Blames Russia for the death. (France24, Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
• Nathan Gill, former leader of Reform U.K. in Wales and ex-MEP, pleaded guilty at London’s Old Bailey to eight counts of bribery for accepting payments from ex-Ukrainian politician Oleg Voloshyn in exchange for making pro-Russia statements in the European Parliament about Ukrainian events between December 2018 and July 2019. Gill, a former member of the U.K. Independence Party and the Brexit Party, wrote opinion pieces and made speeches that benefited Russian interests, including for 112 Ukraine, a pro-Russian channel banned in 2021. He will be sentenced in November. (Financial Times, 09.26.25)

Ukraine:

• The EU is preparing to start technical work on Ukraine and Moldova joining the bloc despite Hungary’s continued blockade of advancing accession talks, according to officials briefed on the process. The European Commission has proposed adjusting its own rules to circumvent Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s veto by starting the technical work in several “clusters” even in the absence of a formal decision to open talks in those areas, the officials said. (Financial Times, 09.30.25)
• Based on the results of a comprehensive assessment of Ukraine within the framework of the fifth round of monitoring of the Istanbul Anti-Corruption Action Plan, experts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) noted Ukraine’s efforts in this field at 91.9 points out of 100 possible. This is one of the highest results among all participants, which at the same time demonstrates significant growth compared to the previous assessment (in 2023) — 53 points. (National Agency on Corruption Prevention, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has dismantled a mobilization evasion scheme run by a senior official of the Central Interregional Justice Ministry office. The official offered draft dodgers removal from military registration using falsified medical reports for a fee of $20,000, and could also arrange deletion of their personal data from the military’s wanted list if needed. He was detained by SBU officers while accepting part of a bribe in exchange for “writing off” a conscript. (Korrespondent.net, 10.03.25)
• Ukrainian anti-corruption prosecutors have sent to court a large-scale criminal case against officials of the Chernivtsi Customs Office accused of running a “grey import” scheme that cost the state nearly 290 million hryvnias (about $7 million). (OCCRP, 10.01.25)
• The Zaporizhzhia Court of Appeals replaced the nighttime house arrest for Vitalii Lysenko, acting director of the City Council's Department of Education, who is suspected of embezzling more than UAH 8.6 million, with detention. (Ukrinform, 09.29.25)
• Ukraine fell short of meeting several required benchmarks under two international support programs by the end of September. Under the four-year, $15.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ukraine has yet to meet three of nine structural benchmarks, including reforms in the rule of law and financial oversight. Under the EU’s Ukraine Facility program, eight indicators – covering governance, judicial staffing and digital enforcement – remained unfulfilled, according to Reconstruction and Relief for Ukraine (RR4U) at its “Monitoring the Implementation of the IMF Program and EU Assistance, Sept. 2025” report. (Kyiv Post, 10.03.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The main goal of U.S. diplomatic efforts aimed at dialogue with the Belarusian authorities led by Alexander Lukashenko is to maintain an additional channel of communication with Putin, U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg said. (RFE/RL. 09.30.25)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu secured a mandate to press ahead with her agenda to steer the country into the European Union after her party won a parliamentary election, thwarting Russian efforts to halt its EU ambitions. (Bloomberg, 09.29.25)
• The Kremlin has criticized the conduct of Moldova’s parliamentary election in which the ruling pro-EU party defeated its pro-Russian opponent, claiming it was marred by complaints of violations and severe constraints on the voting rights of Moldovans living in Russia. (MT/AFP, 09.29.25)
• A Yerevan court sentenced Archbishop Mikael Adjapakhyan to two years in prison after convicting him of publicly calling for the seizure of power, News.am reports. Prosecutors had sought a two-and-a-half-year term. The case stemmed from a February 2024 interview in which Adjapakhyan said Armenia needed a military coup. He was arrested in June 2025 amid tensions between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Armenian church leaders; another archbishop, Bagrat Galstanyan, was also detained at that time. (Meduza, 10.03.25)
• Turkey’s flagship carrier Turkish Airlines plans to launch direct flights to Armenia, as Ankara steps up efforts to normalize relations with its neighbor after decades of hostility. (Bloomberg, 09.30.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Ukrainian drone strikes have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these attacks, according to Russian energy market data cited in the Western media. Since August, Ukraine has hit 16 out of 38 Russian refineries—some multiple times—curtailing processing by around 500,000 barrels per day, according to another estimate cited in the Western media. (Financial Times, 10.03.25, Bloomberg, 10.03.25, Washington Post, 10.03.25, Washington Post, 10.02.25)
2. That said, despite interest from Kyiv and some signals from U.S. officials, it is unlikely that the U.S. will send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, a U.S. official and three sources told Reuters.
3. Sources: Kremlin.ru, 10.02.25; ABC, 10.02.25; Interfax, 01.02.25
4. Machine-translated.
5. The Boracay, blacklisted by the European Union for being part of Russia's sanctions-busting "shadow fleet" of ageing oil tankers, has been linked to mysterious drone flights over Denmark last month. (MT/AFP, 10.03.25)
6. Machine-translated.
7. “Russia is waging a hybrid war against Denmark because they want to create uncertainty,” Thomas Ahrenkiel, director of the intelligence agency, also said. (Bloomberg, 10.03.25)
8. Machine-translated.
9. Machine-translated.
10. Machine-translated.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.