Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Oct. 21 update: In the past week, Oct. 14–21, 2025, Russia has gained 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 48 square miles. In the past four weeks (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. As of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory. Meanwhile, Donald Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week that Ukraine’s Donbas region should be “cut up” and largely left in Russian hands to end the war, according to The Washington Post. This week, the Trump-Putin summit in Budapest was canceled after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told White House officials, following a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart, that an imminent summit with Putin would unlikely yield positive results in peace negotiations, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +28,565 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +45,190 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)1
• In the period of Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025: Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles it gained in the previous four-week period of Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025. Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 168 square miles.
• In past week (Oct. 14–21, 2025): Russia gained 33 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about one and a half Manhattan islands)—a decrease over the previous week’s (Oct. 7–14, 2025) gain of 48 square miles.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across the Kursk and Belgorod regions stayed the same this week as last (Oct. 14–21, 2025): 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–September 2025. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.2 50,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.3 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁴
• Ukraine: 14,383 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁵

• Russia: 23,169 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,445.  
  • Aircraft: 332.⁶
  • Naval vessels: 22.⁷
• Ukraine: 10,165 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,135.
  • Aircraft: 188.⁸
  • Naval vessels: 35.⁹

Citizens displaced

• Russia: 805,000 displaced Russians, 0.6% of Russia's population of 143 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons.
• Ukraine: 9.5 million displaced Ukrainians, 22% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3.8 million as of September 2025.
  • International refugees: 5.7 million, as of September 2025.

Economic impact¹⁰

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 0.6%-0.9% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%   of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01229 U.S. dollars. 4% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 15.3%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02395 U.S. dollars. -28% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.7%.

Infrastructure

• Russia:  
  • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector had caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
  • As of early October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to Russian energy market data. (RM, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine:  
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.¹¹
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.
  • Russia has damaged around 40% of Ukraine’s gas production facilities as of early 2025.
  • Ukraine's energy infrastructure is operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
  • In early October 2025 Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter of 2025-2026. 

Popular support

• Russia: 62% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 74% support negotiated peace (along the current front line and backed by Western security guarantees)

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Oct. 21, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 115,132 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,453 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory.
2. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
   8. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
   9. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, according to Ukrainian media.
   10. Some 1,118,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense as reported by Ukrinform.
3. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
4. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
5. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
6. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region. On Oct. 17, 2025, it was reported that Russian air defenses shot down their own Su-30SM fighter jet over occupied Crimea.
7. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of January 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
8. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet. Then on Sept. 11, 2025, Ukrainian Su-27 pilot Maj. Oleksandr Borovyk was reported to have been killed on while carrying out a combat mission.
9. Oryx is not updating losses of Ukrainian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. Thus, this number excludes the Ukrainian Navy's reconnaissance ship, Simferopol, which was sunken by a Russian naval drone strike in the Danube River estuary on Aug. 28, 2025.
10. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
11. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.

* This card was produced by RM staff.