6 Things to Know

1. If Donald Trump’s repeated recent claims that he is considering supplying Tomahawks to Volodymyr Zelenskyy were meant to reignite Vladimir Putin’s interest in substantive discussions of a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal, then he may congratulate himself. The Russian leader not only scrambled to talk to his U.S. counterpart one day before the latter was to host Zelenskyy on Oct. 17, but he also agreed to a full-fledged bilateral meeting to be hosted by Viktor Orban in two weeks. As for Zelenskyy’s hopes to convince Trump to permit supplies of these U.S.-made long-range cruise missiles during their meeting, they appeared to be all but dead in the water even before the bilateral. Trump appeared noncommittal on providing Tomahawks on Oct. 16, according to the Kyiv Independent. "We need Tomahawks for the United States of America, too. We have a lot of them, but we need them," Trump told reporters the day before he was to see Zelenskyy. Trump then reaffirmed his recent cooling toward the idea of supplying these cruise missiles to Kyiv when hosting Zelenskyy on Oct. 17. “Tomahawks are very dangerous weapons,” Trump said. “Hopefully, we will be able to end the war without thinking about Tomahawks,” he said, according to FT. It remains unclear whether Tomahawks would be a game-changer if supplied. According to one Western estimate, Russia had a total of  more than 500 interceptor missiles, which are reportedly capable of intercepting Tomahawks, assigned to its S-400 systems as of 2024. Given that Washington could only spare some 20 to 50 Tomahawks for Ukraine, these missiles “will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war,” according to Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security.*
2. At his Aug. 15 summit with Trump in Alaska, Putin rejected the U.S. offer of sanctions relief for a ceasefire, insisting the war would end only if Ukraine capitulated and ceded more territory in the Donbas, according to Financial Times sources. Putin also insisted that no settlement was possible without addressing “root causes,” according to multiple people briefed on the talks and interviewed by FT. During the meeting, Putin also delivered a lengthy historical lecture, prompting Trump to raise his voice, threaten to walk out and ultimately cut the summit short, canceling a planned lunch, according to FT.
3. The Trump administration expects Europe, not the U.S., to lead NATO, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, marking an apparent shift in Washington’s stance toward the 76-year transatlantic alliance, according to Bloomberg and The Hill. “We remain clear-eyed about the fact the most effective deterrents to Russian aggression are: number one, a lethal, capable, and European-led NATO, and number two, a combat-credible Ukrainian military able to defend itself and thereby continue to deter Russian aggression along NATO’s border,” he said at a gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, according to Bloomberg.
4. U.S. congressional leaders said they would be likely to move forward on legislation that would strengthen U.S. sanctions against Russia and buyers of its energy, The Washington Post reported. “I don't want to commit to a hard deadline, but it'll be soon," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) told WP, predicting a vote in "the next 30 days.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) are leading the bill, which has 84 co-sponsors. The legislation would impose 500% tariffs on Russia and countries purchasing the country's oil and uranium, with the potential to sever entire nations from the American market, according to The Washington Post.
5. In the week of Oct. 7–14, 2025, Russia has gained 48 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up from the previous week’s gain of 34 square miles. In the past four weeks (Sept. 16–Oct. 14, 2025), Russian forces gained 123 square miles of Ukrainian territory, down from the 226 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles, according to the Oct. 15, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Most recently, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Oct. 17 to have captured the villages of Pishchane and Tykhe in Kharkiv and Pryvillia in Dnipropetrovsk, according to AFP. As of Oct. 16, no such gains were reported by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project in its map of the war, designating Tykhe as “liberated” by the Ukrainian armed forces.
6. Russian forces are now reportedly using North Korean troops in Russia as drone operators instead of sending them into infantry assaults, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Such use was reported by ISW this week as North Korean state TV criticized Russia’s military for the first time over heavy losses that North Korean soldiers endured while fighting on the Russian side against the Ukrainian units, according to Korrespondent.net.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• South Korea’s defense minister disclosed that Russia has likely supplied “various technologies” to North Korea’s submarine program, fueling concerns of broader Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation in exchange for munitions and troops for the Ukraine war. Between 11,000 and 30,000 North Korean troops are estimated to have served alongside Russian forces since late 2024, amid deepening military ties between the two nations. (BNE Intellinews, 10.14.25)
• North Korean state TV has criticized Russia’s military for the first time over heavy KPA losses in Ukraine, with experts noting Kim Jong Un’s growing frustration over unequal ties. Since 2023, North Korea sent Russia about 15,000 troops and arms worth $5.6–9.8 billion, but received only up to $1.2 billion in food, oil, and air defenses. South Korea says 2,000 North Korean soldiers have died in Ukraine, fueling Kim’s discontent with Moscow. Despite the criticism, Kim reaffirmed support for Russia at a recent parade, but also expressed interest in renewed talks with ex-U.S. President Trump—although no breakthrough is expected. (Korrespondent.net, 10.17.25)
• Russian forces are now using North Korean troops in Russia as drone operators instead of in heavy infantry assaults, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Footage shows North Korean personnel conducting reconnaissance drone missions from Kursk Oblast. This shift increases the likelihood that North Korean forces survive and return home with valuable modern battlefield experience for wider integration into their military. (ISW, 10.16.25)
• In addition to soldiers and artillery supplies, it has emerged that North Korea has been providing illegal cluster munitions to Russia for its war on Ukraine. Investigators from the Conflict Armament Research (CAR), a British weapons research group, have found that Russia has been using North Korea cluster munitions in its drones that are modified versions of American munitions first used in the 1990s. (First Post, 10.17.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The U.N.’s mission in Kyiv calls Russia’s abuse of Ukrainian prisoners “systematic and widespread,” reports The Economist. A recent U.N. study found 92% of released civilian detainees suffered mistreatment, including beatings, electric shocks, and rape. Azov Corps members have faced especially brutal torture. (The Economist, 10.09.25)
• Eight Ukrainian children and teenagers were returned from Russian-occupied territories as part of the Bring Kids Back UA initiative, presidential chief Andriy Yermak announced. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)
• Russian forces struck a United Nations aid convoy in the partially occupied Kherson region of southern Ukraine on Oct. 14, Ukrainian and U.N. officials said, though no one was reported injured or killed in the incident. (MT/AFP, 10.14.25)
• Authorities in northeastern Ukraine ordered the evacuation of families from dozens of villages near the city of Kupyansk, citing the "worsening security situation." Oleh Synyehubov, governor of the Kharkiv region, said on Telegram that a total of 409 families with 601 children were told to leave 27 localities. Another official in the affected area later told public broadcaster Suspilne that the list of localities had been expanded to 40. (RFE/RL, 10.15.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Oct. 7–14, 2025, Russia has gained 48 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up from the previous week’s gain of 34 square miles, which constitutes an increase of 41%. In the past four weeks (Sept. 16–Oct. 14, 2025), Russian forces gained 123 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease of 46% from the 226 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. according to the Oct. 15, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 10.16.25)
  • According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Oct. 15, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 115,073 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44429 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 05.15.25)

Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

• On Friday, Oct. 10, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Poltavka, Nikonorivka and Kotlyne.  (RM, 10.17.25)

• Russia launched a massive barrage of 465 drones and 32 missiles at Ukraine, causing blackouts in Kyiv and nearly a dozen regions and killing a 7-year-old child and wounding at least 20 in Kyiv. Ukraine shot down 406 drones and 15 missiles, but sustained major damage to critical infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on allies for more air defense and stronger sanctions, warning of a tough winter ahead. (WSJ, 10.10.25, Washington Post, 10.10.25)

Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025

• On Oct. 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pishchane, Torske and Malynivka.4 (RM, 10.17.25)

Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025

• On Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces drove back Russian forces near Nove Shakhove, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Kucheriv Yar and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in Kucheriv Yar and near Shakhove. (RM, 10.17.25)
• Ukraine’s forces struck a crude oil processing unit at a Bashneft refinery in Ufa, Bashkortostan, with drones early Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The giant complex, part of the Rosneft energy group, is located about 1,750 kilometers (1,090 miles) from Kyiv and about 1,200 km east of Moscow. It was the third strike this year at that location, according to the person, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. (Bloomberg, 10.11.25)
• In the past week alone, Moscow had used more than 3,100 drones, 92 missiles and about 1,360 glide bombs to attack Ukraine, Zelenskyy wrote on the social media platform X. (RFE/RL, 10.12.25)

Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

• On Oct. 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Ternove and advanced near Shandryholove. (RM, 10.17.25)
• Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of Oct. 12–13, hitting at least five tanks at the Feodosia Offshore Oil Terminal and substations in Feodosia and Simferopol, causing fires. Reports say 11 fuel tanks were damaged, including eight diesel tanks with up to 10,000 metric tons capacity each. (ISW, 10.13.25)
  • “The most effective sanctions, the ones that work the fastest, are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries,” Zelenskyy said. Ukraine’s 14th drone regiment struck 17 sites in August, but officials say more Western funding is needed. (New York Times, 10.13.25)
• Cuba denied U.S. assertions that it is involved in the military conflict in Ukraine or had sent soldiers there. Two Cubans – two 19-year-olds identified as Alex Vega and Andorf Velasquez – recounted how they ended up wounded in battle alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Speaking from what they said was a military hospital in Russia’s Kaliningrad region, the two said they had traveled to Russia “to make some money.” (RFE/RL, 10.13.25, MT/AFP, 10.12.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

• On Oct. 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Perebudova, Komar and Myrne, and advanced near Ivanivka and Voskresenka. (RM, 10.17.25)
• At least four people have been killed and dozens injured in the latest wave of Russian drone and shelling attacks on Ukraine, including a strike that hit a hospital complex in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, local authorities reported. (RFE/RL, 10.14.25)
• A woman was killed in a Ukrainian drone strike on a car in the southwestern Kursk region of Russia, local authorities said Oct. 14. (MT/AFP, 10.14.25)
• Russia has likely sustained approximately 332,000 causalities (killed and wounded) in the conflict so far in 2025, and approximately 1,118,000 casualties since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (U.K. Ministry of Defense X account, 10.14.25)
  • The average daily Russian casualties during September 2025 was 950 according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting, a moderate increase from August 2025. However, Russia’s casualty rate in October 2025 has been steadily increasing, surpassing 1,000 daily casualties every day from Oct. 5 to Oct. 12. (U.K. Ministry of Defense X account, 10.14.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

• On Oct. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Novyi Shakhove and Kucheriv Yar. (RM, 10.17.25)

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• On Oct. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Malynivka and Poltavka. (RM, 10.17.25)
• During Russia’s overnight strike on Ukraine’s energy sector, most of the 37 missiles used were ballistic (including 2 Kinzhal and 26 Iskander-M), according to Air Force official Yuriy Ihnat. In total, Russia launched 357 missiles and drones, with Ukrainian air defenses downing or jamming 288. Fourteen locations were hit, and the attack targeted critical gas infrastructure—the sixth such strike this month. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)
• Ukraine’s General Staff claimed a strike on Rosneft PJSC’s Saratov refinery. Also Ukrainian military forces attacked the facility in Russia’s Volga region overnight. (Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
• Ukraine’s biggest private power producer DTEK halted gas extraction in the central Poltava region due to damage from a barrage of Russian drones and missiles, the company said. (Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) on Oct. 16 accused the United Kingdom of helping Ukraine coordinate a large-scale drone assault on Russian military airfields this summer. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)
• Russian forces have shifted from “carpet bombing” with mass drone and missile strikes to “piecemeal” tactics: targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure oblast by oblast and focusing on substations and local generation, especially in Sumy and Chernihiv. Waves of drones—10 to 40 per target—are sent hourly before missile strikes. Russia is also deploying new Shahed drones with thermal imaging and thermobaric warheads, aiming to cause blackouts and disrupt power and gas supply in eastern Ukraine. (ISW, 10.16.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• Russia said Oct. 17 it had captured three villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, including areas Kyiv had retaken three years ago in a surprise counteroffensive. The Moscow military command said it had captured the villages of Pishchane and Tykhe in Kharkiv and Pryvillia in Dnipropetrovsk. Russian forces are slowly advancing again, trying to encircle the key logistics hub of Kupiansk, Ukraine's major gain in the 2022 counteroffensive. (MT/AFP, 10.17.25)
• Russian air defenses shot down their own Su-30SM fighter jet over occupied Crimea while responding to Ukrainian drone attacks, according to Ukraine’s Navy. The incident reportedly caused the jet’s engines to catch fire and forced the crew to eject. Separately, Ukrainian strikes triggered another fire at a major Russian oil depot in Simferopol, Crimea. (RBC.ua, 10.17.25)
• A Russian state media correspondent was killed in a Ukrainian drone strike in the Moscow-occupied part of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, his outlet, the news agency RIA Novosti, said Oct. 16. "RIA Novosti military correspondent Ivan Zuev was killed in the Zaporizhzhia region and his colleague Yuri Voitkevich was seriously injured," the agency said. (MT/AFP, 10.17.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

• The U.S. has provided intelligence support to Ukraine for months, enabling Kyiv to conduct long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Since midsummer, American assistance has helped Ukraine target at least 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries, disrupting over 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity and forcing Moscow to limit diesel exports. President Trump’s frustration with Russia after the Alaska summit led to deepened U.S. involvement, seen as a bid to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiations. (Financial Times, 10.10.25)

Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025

• Zelenskyy had a “very positive and productive” phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump and also spoke on Oct. 11 with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. “We discussed opportunities to bolster our air defense, as well as concrete agreements that we are working on to ensure this,” Zelenskyy said of his conversation with Trump. Axios, citing people with knowledge of the call, reported that Trump and Zelenskyy discussed the potential provision of U.S. Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with no final decision made. (Bloomberg, 10.11.25)  

Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

• It was announced that Trump will meet Zelenskyy at the White House on Oct. 17 to discuss whether the U.S. should supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. Trump told reporters that sending Tomahawks would be “a new step of aggression” and warned, “If this war is not gonna get settled, I may send them Tomahawks.” Zelenskyy said air defense and Ukraine’s long-range capabilities are the visit’s main focus. (Axios, 10.14.25)
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev on Oct. 13 warned Trump that the supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine could “end badly” for him. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later endorsed Medvedev’s remarks, claiming that supplying the weapons to Ukraine risks further escalation as U.S. specialists would allegedly need to assist Ukraine in firing on targets in Russia. “Anyone with even a basic understanding of the issue knows that American experts would be involved in the handling of such missiles,” Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 10.13.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

• The U.S. envoy to NATO said he expected “big” spending pledges from allies on Oct. 15 for Ukrainian weapons purchases to help counter Russian air strikes. Under a special procurement program called PURL, Ukraine can buy weapons from the U.S. with funds provided mostly by European partners after Trump’s administration halted aid shipments. PURL “is operating smoothly and efficiently now,” Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said. (Bloomberg, 10.14.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

• At the Oct. 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting and a subsequent NATO gathering in Brussels, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged European NATO members to bolster support for Ukraine through the PURL initiative. Finland joined PURL, Lithuania pledged $30 million, the Netherlands committed €90 million for Ukrainian drone production and Norway announced €5.9 billion in aid for 2026. Hegseth warned that the U.S. is prepared to “impose costs” on Russia for rejecting peace talks, including possible Tomahawk missile deliveries. Over half of NATO members have pledged $2 billion for U.S. arms to Ukraine. (ISW, 10.15.25, Washington Post, 10.15.25)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said more than half of the military alliance’s 32 allies have now pledged money to help Ukraine buy U.S. weapons — a much-needed cash infusion as Kyiv’s war-time funding lags. “Today we heard from ally after ally about new contributions,” Rutte said, speaking after a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. “I’m really confident that we have the support from allies to buy from what the Americans provide in lethal and non-lethal aid,” he added. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• Trump confirmed that Ukraine’s leaders “want to go offensive” and he said he is considering supplying Ukraine with U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles, which can strike targets up to 2,500 km away—including Moscow—to pressure Putin into negotiations. The Pentagon is ready to deliver the missiles on short notice if Trump authorizes, but Ukraine would require special U.S. launchers and targeting assistance. Experts suggest the U.S. could initially provide 20–50 missiles out of an arsenal of over 4,000, signaling strong resolve but not changing the war unless combined with other systems. Kremlin officials have warned deliveries would trigger “serious consequences.” Trump confirmed ongoing discussions with Zelenskyy ahead of their Oct. 17 meeting. (WSJ, 10.16.25, Financial Times, 10.16.25, ISW, 10.15.25)
  • Trump appeared noncommittal on providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on Oct. 16, just hours before he was set to meet with Zelenskyy in Washington. "We need Tomahawks for the United States of America, too. We have a lot of them, but we need them. I mean, we can't deplete for our country," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. (Kyiv Independent, 10.17.25)
• Members of Ukraine’s government were in Washington ahead of Zelenskyy’s arrival on Oct. 17 and they met with top U.S. officials on Oct. 14. "At every meeting in Washington we raise the topic of defending Ukrainian energy and supporting our resilience over the winter and ways to defend it," Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko wrote on Telegram. Ukraine’s delegation also met with Raytheon to discuss Patriot and Tomahawk systems. Russian officials warned of consequences if the U.S. supplies Tomahawks to Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 10.15.25, Politico, 10.16.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• Ron Wahid, a defense executive who has been involved in U.S.-Ukraine discussions, said the West has better options than the Tomahawks for pressuring Russia. "I would prefer that Germany provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, which can also strike deep targets," Wahid said. (Washington Post, 10.17.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

• The U.K. and Canada will join a European Union plan to tap a portion of the almost $300 billion in Russian central-bank assets held by Group of Seven nations, in an effort to ramp up their financial support to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.14.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

• The U.K. slapped sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil producers and a Chinese terminal that receives liquefied gas from a major Russian project. Britain blacklisted state oil giant Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC on Oct. 15, the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation said in a statement. The two companies, which account for more than half of all oil produced in Russia, undertake business of “strategic significance” to the government, it said. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)
• Ukrainian authorities are growing frustrated with a surge in foreign components being found in Russian drones, with a senior diplomat calling on allies to tighten sanctions controls as Moscow scales up military production. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)
• Several Estonian citizens have maintained business ties with sanctioned Russian companies and individuals profiting from the war in Ukraine despite the Baltic country’s designation of Russia as a “terrorist regime,” the investigative news website The Insider reported on Oct. 15. Among the Russian figures identified in the investigation are the daughter of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, billionaire industrialists Iskandar Makhmudov and Andrei Bokarev, as well as companies that supply equipment to Russian shipyards producing submarines. (MT/AFP, 10.15.25)

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• The EU’s adoption of its 19th sanctions package against Russia has been delayed again, this time due to Austria and Slovakia’s demands. Austria wants the EU to unfreeze some Russian assets to compensate Raiffeisen Bank for penalties imposed by Russian courts and to lift sanctions on several Russian individuals and companies. Other EU members warn these moves would set a dangerous precedent and legitimize Russian court decisions on asset seizures. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• To get to Budapest to meet Trump, Putin will need to pass through airspace over European countries that belong to the International Criminal Court. And that court has a warrant out for the Russian leader’s arrest. (New York Times, 10.17.25)
  • The European Commission clarified that EU sanctions against Russia do not ban Putin or Lavrov from entering the EU, so there are no formal obstacles to a planned Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest, according to spokesperson Anita Hipper. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.17.25)
• U.S. congressional leaders said they would be likely to move forward on legislation that would strengthen U.S. sanctions against Russia and buyers of its energy. “I don't want to commit to a hard deadline, but it'll be soon," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) said Oct. 16, predicting a vote in "the next 30 days.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) are leading the bill, which has 84 co-sponsors, and have been tweaking its language with the White House to prepare for the president's final approval. The legislation would impose 500 % tariffs on Russia and countries purchasing the country's oil and uranium, with the potential to sever entire nations from the American market. (Washington Post, 10.17.25)
• The EU is proposing to use part of a planned €140 billion loan—backed by income from Russia’s frozen assets—to buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine, aiming to ensure continued American support amid signals of a possible U.S.-Russia détente. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)
• A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Oct. 17 quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal saga. The decision ended a tug-of-war over Yukos, which broke up in the early 2000s after the arrest of former tycoon owner and Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky. “The Supreme Court dismisses the appeal [and] orders the Russian Federation to pay the costs of the appeal proceedings,” said the court in its written ruling published on Oct. 17. (MT/AFP, 10.17.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• During the Alaska summit, Trump said the U.S. was willing to recognize Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and push Ukraine to pull back from some frontline positions in the Donbas region if Russia stopped the fighting, according to two people familiar with the matter. But the putative deal was based on misconceptions. Russia’s territorial “concessions,” as Witkoff presented them, amounted to accepting a freeze on the frontline in some areas it has been unable to seize by force — while still demanding Ukraine surrender the entire Donbas. The Russian leader insisted that no deal would be possible if it did not address what he called the “root causes” of the conflict, his shorthand for regime change in Kyiv, an end to NATO expansion and Western arms supplies for Ukraine. For Putin, Trump’s offer was a non-starter. He wanted Ukraine’s capitulation. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)
  • During the Alaska summit, Putin delivered a rambling historical discursion. Taken aback, Trump raised his voice several times and at one point threatened to walk out, the people said. He ultimately cut the meeting short and cancelled a planned lunch where broader delegations were due to discuss economic ties and cooperation. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)[1]
  • With Trump increasingly exasperated with Putin, his administration has allowed European allies to purchase arms from U.S. stockpiles for Ukraine, helped guide strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and has threatened Putin with selling Kyiv long-range missiles able to hit Moscow. The shift is incomplete — Washington has yet to act on its threats to sanction Russia’s energy exports — perhaps to keep space for Trump as a potential peace broker. But the thrust of policy has gone in one direction: compelling Putin to return to the negotiating table over Ukraine. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)

Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

• In a sweeping diplomatic push, Trump addressed Israel’s parliament on Oct. 13, proclaiming a “historic dawn” for the Middle East and pledging to prioritize an end to the Ukraine war. He tasked his special envoy, Steve Witkoff to focus on ending the Ukraine conflict. Trump, who said he may recall envoys for Iran talks but will “focus on Russia first,” is set to meet Zelenskyy at the White House on Oct. 17 to discuss potential U.S. supplies of Tomahawk missiles and additional Patriot systems to Ukraine. (Financial Times, 10.14.25, Axios, 10.14.25, RFE/RL, 10.13.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

• On Oct. 14, Trump described Putin as “a friend” but said, “He’s got to really settle this war… His economy is going to collapse, and I’d like to see him do well… but he just doesn’t want to end that war, and I think it’s making him look very bad.” (New York Times, 10.14.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

• Trump again expressed his frustration with Putin and Moscow's war in Ukraine as he prepared to host Zelenskyy at the White House later this week. "I'm very disappointed, because Vladimir and I had a very good relationship. Probably still do," Trump told reporters at the White House. "I don't know why he continues with this war." Trump said it is making Putin look “very bad” that he does not appear to want to end the conflict with Ukraine, adding, “He could end it. He could end it quickly." Zelenskyy is expected to discuss Ukraine's air defense and long-range strike capabilities when he meets Trump on Oct. 17 at the White House. The leaders spoke twice over the weekend amid intensifying discussions about a potential U.S. decision to provide long-range Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. "He wants weapons. He would like to have Tomahawks," Trump said, referring to Zelenskyy in his comments to reporters on Oct. 14. Trump has not ruled out supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and can be equipped with nuclear warheads. The Kremlin has warned against supplying Kyiv with the weapon. (RFE/RL, 10.15.25)

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• Trump has said he would again meet Putin for talks seeking to end the war in Ukraine. The U.S. president announced the upcoming meeting in Budapest[2] after a lengthy phone call with his Russian counterpart, which he described as “very productive,” adding that the meeting in Hungary would take place “within two weeks or so.” Trump said after the call that senior U.S. and Russian officials would speak next week to lay the groundwork for a further meeting between himself and Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security adviser, will lead the U.S. delegation. (Financial Times, 10.16.25-10.17.25)
  • Trump said he and Putin will meet in Hungary "to see if we can bring this 'inglorious' War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "I believe great progress was made with today's telephone conversation." After the call Trump also expressed optimism that the summit could result in a ceasefire breakthrough even though an August meeting in Alaska failed to yield one. “I think Alaska actually set a stage,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I think we’ll be successful, save a lot of lives.” After the call, Trump also expressed skepticism about a Tomahawk deal with Ukraine, saying "we need Tomahawks for the United States of America, too." “We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over,” Trump posted on social media after the Oct. 16 call with Putin. Trump went on to say that Putin did not want him to provide the missiles. ''Tomahawk is a vicious weapon,'' Trump said. ''It's a vicious, offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants Tomahawks shot at them.'' (New York Times, 10.17.25, Washington Post, 10.17.25, Washington Post, 10.17.25, New York Times, 10.16.25, Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
  • Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said Putin had noted Tomahawks would not change the situation on the battlefield but would damage U.S. relations with Russia and its attempts to end the war. Trump later on Oct. 16 brushed off a question about Tomahawks for Ukraine, noting that “we have a lot of them, but we need them. We can’t deplete for our country.” “The threat of Tomahawks pushed Putin to hurry up,” said a senior Ukrainian official, reacting to news of Trump’s plans to meet Russia’s president. (Financial Times, 10.16.25-10.17.25)
  • During the call, Putin sought to convince Trump that Russia had the upper hand on the battlefield, Ushakov said. "Russian armed forces fully control the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact. Under these circumstances, the Kyiv regime is resorting to terrorist methods, striking civilian targets and energy infrastructure, to which we are forced to respond accordingly," Ushakov said, complaining about Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that have taxed Russian energy production. (Washington Post, 10.17.25)
    • Ukraine's commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, pushed back against the Russian assertions. "I can state with confidence: Ukrainian warriors have ceased the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign and continue to disrupt the Kremlin's further plans." (Washington Post, 10.17.25)
  • During the Oct. 16 call, Putin also congratulated Trump for brokering the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza earlier this week and praised his wife, Melania Trump, for her efforts to reunite displaced Ukrainian children with their families. (Financial Times, 10.16.25-10.17.25)
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters on Oct. 17 that the summit would take place “in two weeks or a bit longer” to “avoid putting things off”, according to Tass. “We proposed the phone conversation on the heels of President Trump’s successful trip to the Middle East,” Peskov said on Oct. 17 of the Oct. 16 call. “President Putin’s first thought, of course, was to congratulate Trump on such a success.” Peskov said it was unclear how Putin would travel to Budapest. (New York Times, 10.17.25. Financial Times, 10.16.25-10.17.25)
  • On Oct. 17, Putin took a call from Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, to discuss a possible Trump-Putin summit in Budapest. But the Kremlin’s statement about that call added that Putin told Orban that U.S. and Russian officials would first need to “discuss the algorithm for further actions in the context of finding ways to peacefully resolve the Ukrainian crisis.” (New York Times, 10.17.25)
    • Budapest is the "essentially only place in Europe today where such a meeting can be held," Orban said ahead of the call, because what he said was Hungary's "consistent" stance for peace. (RFE/RL, 10.17.25)
  • The Oct. 16 call between Putin and Trump was Putin’s eighth phone conversation with the American leader this year. He has held five hours long, in-person meetings with Witkoff. Combined with the August summit in Alaska, Putin has held about as many meetings and calls with Trump and Witkoff this year as he has with his closest international ally, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, according to official Kremlin statements. (New York Times, 10.17.25)
  • ''After walking away from his Alaska summit with Putin empty-handed, President Trump has now decided to reward Putin again by rolling out the red carpet in Hungary,'' said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. (New York Times, 10.16.25)
• "We have a problem. They don't get along too well, those two. And it's sometimes tough to have meetings. So we may do something where we're separate. Separate but equal. We'll meet and talk," Trump said of Putin and Zelenskyy. "This is a terrible relationship the two of them have." (Washington Post, 10.16.25)
• Vice President JD Vance told Newsmax that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is still out of reach as neither side is willing to compromise, though he credited President Trump’s diplomacy with moving talks forward. Vance emphasized that tariffs have been more effective on Russia than sanctions, and said Trump is pushing India and China to reduce Russian oil purchases. He remains confident Trump can eventually broker a deal, though the process is slow and frustrating. (Newsmax, 10.16.25)
• After landing at Andrews Air Force Base, Zelenskyy and his team on Oct. 16 were surprised to see Trump announce he’d spoken with Putin and agreed to meet him in Hungary—the least Ukraine-friendly EU country (Axios, 10.16.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• During their meeting in the White House Oct. 17, Zelenskyy hailed Trump’s peacemaking efforts in the Middle East as the Ukrainian leader pressed the U.S. president for more military aid including long-range missiles. “There is a big chance,” Zelenskyy said as he and Trump answered media questions ahead of their lunch meeting in the White House Oct. 17. “I hope that President Trump can manage it.” The Ukrainian president also suggested Ukraine could swap drones for U.S. Tomahawk missiles. “Ukraine has thousands of drones but it doesn’t have Tomahawks,” he said. But the U.S. president expressed his reluctance to push ahead with such a move. “Tomahawks are very dangerous weapons ... if you like warfare,” Trump said. “It could mean escalation. Tomahawks are a big deal. Hopefully, we will be able to end the war without thinking about Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters. “We are fairly close to that.” Trump repeated his view that the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. can settle the war between themselves. Trump said Oct. 17 that he envisioned the potential summit with Putin in Budapest as a “double meeting,” in which he would meet with Putin and Zelenskyy separately, but the warring presidents would not meet directly with each other. (Financial Times, 10.17.25, New York Times, 10.17.25, Washington Post, 10.17.25, Sky News, 10.17.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

• As Russian aggression shifts west, Poland has doubled its military since 2014, now boasting the largest army in European NATO and spending 4.7% of GDP on defense—the highest in the alliance. Recent Russian drone incursions brought NATO and Russian assets into direct confrontation. With 210,000 troops and $50B in recent U.S. weapons purchases, Poland is now the alliance’s key eastern bulwark. (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.25)
• The U.K.’s domestic security service, MI5, warned politicians and their staff that they are being targeted by spies from China, Russia and Iran in efforts geared toward undermining British democracy. (Bloomberg, 10.13.25)
• Germany is set to approve the purchase of about €7.5 billion ($8.7 billion) of military equipment as soon as this week as part of its drive to modernize its armed forces and confront the growing threat from Russia. The package includes a €3.5 billion order for 274 armored reconnaissance vehicles. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2028. Germany also plans to invest €10 billion ($11.6 billion) in military drones in coming years to help protect European and NATO airspace amid a rising threat from Russia, according to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25, Bloomberg, 10.13.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

• Europe is increasingly preparing for possible war with Russia by 2029, according to Germany’s new intelligence chief Martin Jaeger, who warned NATO must “prepare for escalation.” Germany’s counterintelligence head also said the country is “already under attack.” Poland now spends 4.7% of GDP on defense and has the largest army in Europe after the U.S. and Turkey, while the Baltics have doubled defense budgets and drafted evacuation plans. (Istories, 10.14.25)
  • According to an Ipsos poll, 27% of Germans believe war with Russia is likely within the next six months (20% “rather likely,” 7% “very likely”). Concerns are higher among women (33%) and those aged 18–39 (35%), while only 18% of those aged 60–75 expect conflict. Supporters of different parties rate the risk differently; among AfD voters, 31% see war as likely. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

• The Trump administration expects Europe, not the U.S., to lead NATO, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, marking an apparent shift in Washington’s stance toward the 76-year transatlantic alliance. The U.S. will continue to fulfill its obligations to the alliance, Hegseth said Oct. 15 in Brussels, but also expects other countries to bolster their own defenses. “We remain clear-eyed about the fact the most effective deterrents to Russian aggression are: number one, a lethal, capable, and European-led NATO, and number two, a combat-credible Ukrainian military able to defend itself and thereby continue to deter Russian aggression along NATO’s border,” he said at a gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which coordinates military support to Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)
• NATO defense ministers met in Brussels to discuss strengthening and streamlining alliance defenses amid rising Russian provocations, including drone and fighter jet incursions into allied airspace. Proposals include aligning national rules of engagement, deploying more lethal assets to eastern borders, and closing gaps for a more aggressive deterrent posture by early next year. EU defense ministers are also focusing on increased spending for air, missile, and anti-drone defense. (Financial Times, 10.15.25)
• Dutch officials reported unidentified drones flying over a NATO military exercise in Poland, possibly disrupting military communication systems. The source and operators are still unknown. This incident follows a trend of drone incursions across Europe, which ISW assesses as likely linked to Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign—gathering intelligence and psychological preparation for a potential future conflict with NATO. (ISW, 10.15.25)

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• The European Union’s executive body has approved a 5-year defense road map that features plans for a “drone wall” to be fully functional by the end of 2027. (RFE/RL, 10.16.25)
• NATO countries should keep “all options” open if Russia violates their airspace again, including shooting down Russian jets, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said. (Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
• Russian FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov accused the U.K. of stoking fear about Russia and blamed “NATO intelligence services” for recent drone incursions over Europe—incidents actually carried out by Russia. Bortnikov also alleged U.K.-backed sabotage plots, as Russia ramps up cognitive warfare to muddy responsibility for attacks on NATO states. (ISW, 10.16.25)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte struck a bullish note at the end of a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers, saying its military and 25-fold economic superiority would be effective in deterring Russian attacks on the continent. “Let's not overstate what Russia is capable of,” he said. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• Reform U.K. leader Nigel Farage criticized Putin as irrational and backed shooting down Russian jets that enter NATO airspace, following criticism that his views on Moscow could threaten his bid to become prime minister. (Bloomberg, 10.17.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese factories have enabled Russia’s surge in battlefield drone capabilities by sharply increasing exports of key components like fiber-optic cables and lithium-ion batteries, reports The Washington Post. In August 2025 alone, Russia imported 328,000 miles of Chinese fiber-optic cables—compared to just 72 miles for Ukraine—and received $47–54 million a month in batteries. Analysts say this “made in China, assembled in Russia” approach gives Moscow a significant frontline advantage. (Washington Post, 13.10.25) It should be noted that Ukraine uses Chinese-made parts to assemble its drones, according to Quinn Urich’s RM post, entitled “Chinese Drone Tech Fuels Both Sides of Russia-Ukraine War.” “With only 5% of Ukrainian defense firms reporting they do not use Chinese components in their systems, the vast majority of drones that fill the sky are likely either made in China or contain a number of key components made in China,” Urich writes.
• Russia’s Rosatom and China have approved a joint action plan to further develop shipping along the Northern Sea Route, aiming to create a sustainable transport corridor. The roadmap, finalized at a meeting in Harbin, focuses on boosting efficiency with new logistics and technological solutions and major capital projects, positioning the route as a key 21st-century artery for global trade. (Rosatom, 10.15.25)
• U.S. President Trump said he will meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in two weeks, the firmest confirmation he has given of possible talks between the two leaders around the time of an Asian regional summit later this month. (New York Times, 10.17.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin stated Russia’s strategic systems are “at a very high level,” adding: “We are prepared to negotiate if this proves acceptable and beneficial for the American side. If not—then so be it.” On nuclear tests, he said, “If they do it, we will do the same,” and linked these policies to his proposal of a one-year New START extension: “Let everyone think about it.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.10.25)
• The Kremlin is shifting its messaging to deter U.S. supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, after reports that U.S. intelligence has aided Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites. Deputy Security Council Chair Medvedev warned Russia cannot distinguish between nuclear and conventional Tomahawks in flight and asserted the U.S. would control Ukrainian strikes. The Kremlin’s intensified warnings, including claims of U.S. escalation risk, come as Trump contemplates supplying the missiles if Russia refuses negotiations. (ISW, 10.13.25)
• Lukashenko warned that U.S. supplies of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine “will escalate the situation to nuclear war,” saying, “No ‘Tomahawks’ will solve the issue. This escalates the situation to nuclear war.” Lukashenko added that Trump “understands this best of all,” and is reluctant to authorize such deliveries to Ukraine. (Kommersant, 10.13.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Moscow for the first time since overthrowing Bashar al-Assad, marking a pivotal reset in Russian-Syrian relations. Sharaa pressed Putin to rescind Assad’s asylum and extradite him for war crimes, a request analysts judge unlikely. While both leaders affirmed historic ties and Russia’s future role in Syria’s recovery, relations are strained: Russia’s military now faces severe restrictions, with Syrian security overseeing troop movements and the Tartus naval lease revoked in favor of Dubai Ports World’s $800 million contract. Despite diminished Russian influence, Moscow still seeks to retain its bases and supply oil and grain. Syria has demanded reparations and reconstruction support as part of any new agreement.

• Top of Form

  (Financial Times, 10.16.25, New York Times, 10.15.25, Financial Times, 10.16.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russia has used cryptocurrencies to pay saboteurs involved in hybrid attacks—including drone incursions and sabotage of critical infrastructure—across the EU, according to Poland’s security chief. Evidence shared with Western partners also links Russia’s “shadow fleet” to drone launches that violated European airspace and forced NATO responses. (Financial Times, 10.13.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged in a phone call that India would stop buying Russian oil—a move Trump called a “big step” and hopes to leverage with China. India’s government did not confirm the call but said discussions with Washington are ongoing. Russian crude imports to India are 1.8mn barrels per day, and analysts doubt a quick end to imports is feasible. The move seeks to ease U.S.-India trade tensions amid high tariffs. (Financial Times, 10.16.25)
  • India’s foreign ministry said it’s unaware of a conversation between Donald Trump and Modi on Oct. 15, hours after the U.S. leader said he spoke with his Indian counterpart, who pledged to halt Russian oil purchases. (Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
  • India is trying to find a way to maintain ties with both the U.S. and Russia as it seeks to clinch a trade deal with Trump and bring down tariff rates of 50%. (Bloomberg, 10.17.25)
• The Trump administration expects Japan to stop importing energy from Russia, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato during a meeting on Oct. 15. (Bloomberg, 10.16.25)
• Russian exports of refined fuels have slumped to their lowest since the onset of the Ukraine war, underlining continued strain on the country’s refineries targeted by Kyiv’s drone attacks. Total seaborne fuel shipments averaged 1.88 million barrels a day in the first 10 days of this month, the lowest since at least the start of 2022, according to Vortexa Ltd. figures compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)
• Russia’s seaborne crude shipments rose to a 28-month high in the past four weeks. Four-week average shipments from the country’s ports were 3.74 million barrels a day to Oct. 12, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the highest since June 2023. Since March, before the move began, Russia’s production target has increased by more than 500,000 barrels a day. (Bloomberg, 10.14.25)
• The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency said. (Bloomberg, 10.14.25)
• Russia has unseated the U.S. as Venezuela’s primary source of naphtha, a petroleum product it needs to dilute its extra-heavy crude, as Washington’s trade policies push the two sanctioned countries into deeper economic cooperation. (Bloomberg, 10.13.25)
• Putin relaxed the rules on fuel subsidies to the nation’s refiners, allowing them to continue receiving billions of rubles in aid amid intensified Ukrainian attacks on the industry. Refineries will remain eligible for subsidies even if market wholesale prices for diesel and gasoline significantly exceed threshold prices, according to a presidential decree published Oct. 12. (Bloomberg, 10.12.25)
• Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar says there will be no rapid shift away from importing Russian fossil fuels if he wins parliamentary elections expected to be held this spring. (RFE/RL, 10.14.25)
• A shipment of Russian liquefied natural gas arrived at a Chinese terminal for the first time since the U.K. sanctioned the port facility, underscoring Beijing’s appetite for Moscow’s energy supplies despite Western efforts to curb such trade. (Bloomberg, 10.17.25)
• A growing glut of oil and fear of a global economic slowdown pushed crude prices to their lowest point since fuel markets were rebounding from the Covid-19 crash. Most actively traded U.S. oil futures ended Oct. 16 at $56.99 a barrel, down 2.2% on the day and 19% from a year ago. That marked the lowest price since February 2021. (Wall Street Journal, 10.17.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Kremlin investment chief Kirill Dmitriev urged Elon Musk’s Boring Company to build a $8 billion undersea “Putin-Trump Tunnel” linking Alaska and Russia, cutting estimated costs from $65bn. The proposal follows a Trump-Putin call about renewing trade after the Ukraine war ends and signals Russia’s hope for future U.S. economic cooperation. The envisioned 70-mile Bering Strait tunnel would be more than twice as long as the Channel Tunnel. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna said Oct. 14 that Russia’s ambassador in Washington had given her a Soviet-era report on the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Ambassador Alexander Darchiev expressed hope the materials would “shed additional light on the tragedy that happened.” (MT/AFP, 10.15.25)
• International student arrivals to the U.S. fell by 19% in August 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the sharpest non-pandemic drop on record, reports The New York Times. While students from Europe accounted for 16% of arrivals (with trends stable for Britain, Spain, and Germany), the largest decline came from Russia, reflecting worsening U.S.-Russia relations. (New York Times, 10.13.25)
• A former Russian diplomat linked to a sanctions-evasion scandal involving one of the FBI’s top former counter-intelligence agents and a notorious Russian oligarch was set to be sentenced on charges of lying to U.S. law enforcement. Sergei Shestakov’s sentencing, scheduled for Oct. 16 in Manhattan federal court, closes a chapter in a case that both embarrassed the FBI and also shone a new spotlight on Oleg Deripaska, a Kremlin-connected billionaire who has long been on the FBI’s radar screen. (RFE/RL, 10.16.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The International Monetary Fund on Oct. 14 once again lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2025, projecting an expansion of just 0.6% even as it raised its global outlook. The revision marks a 0.3 percentage-point downgrade from the IMF’s July estimate of 0.9% GDP growth and represents the second-sharpest cut among major economies after Canada. In April, the organization had projected annual growth of 1.5% for Russia before lowering it this summer. The IMF maintained its forecasts of 1% GDP growth for Russia in 2026 and 1.1% in 2030. (MT/AFP, 10.14.25)
• Russia’s coal industry is facing its worst crisis in over 30 years, with losses of $2.8 billion in the first seven months of 2025—double last year’s total. By September, 23 companies (13% of the sector) had closed and 53 more are at risk. Deeply discounted prices, soaring logistics costs, and reduced exports have forced miners to operate at low margins or losses, threatening over 140,000 jobs and vital local budgets. (Financial Times, 10.13.25)
• The Kremlin is reportedly planning to fire unpopular regional governors before the September 2026 State Duma elections to distract voters from tax hikes and the ongoing war. Sources told Meduza that dismissals closer to the election generate “temporary positive emotion” among voters, and give new governors time to manage electoral machinery, helping ensure the Kremlin’s preferred results. (ISW, 10.13.25)
• Actors Martin and Janet Sheen, John Cusack and Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek have signed an open letter urging Russian prison officials to end the solitary confinement of jailed activist Mikhail Kriger, who has been on a dry hunger strike for more than a week.. (MT/AFP, 10.17.25)
• Russian authorities have opened a new criminal case against exiled oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 other dissidents, accusing them of plotting to overthrow Vladimir Putin’s regime and supporting Ukrainian units. The FSB’s move, targeting members of the Anti-War Committee of Russia, reflects the Kremlin’s growing concern over opposition abroad, as Western forums extend more formal recognition to exiled Russian democrats. (Financial Times, 10.14.25)
• Russia’s Interior Ministry has issued an arrest warrant for prominent Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza, the exiled news website Mediazona reported on Oct. 13, though the exact charges against him remain unknown. The charges against him were not specified. Both Kara-Murza and Yashin were designated as terrorists later on Oct. 13, state media reported. (MT/AFP, 10.13.25)
• Putin on Oct. 15 signed a law that makes it easier for authorities to bring criminal charges against individuals and organizations designated as “foreign agents,” further tightening restrictions on dissent in Russia. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)
• According to a Levada Center poll (Sept. 23–Oct. 1, 2025), 43% of Russians believe the war in Ukraine made its participants resilient and courageous, while 41% say it scarred their souls; 19% think veterans became more violent, 17% say they are more intolerant of evil and 11% describe them as indifferent and cynical. (Levada Center, 10.14.25)
• According to a September 2025 Levada Center poll, institutional trust in Russia has reached new highs: 83% trust the president, 75% the army, 66% security agencies, 63% the government, and 62% the church. Lower trust was noted in political parties (42%), trade unions (40%), and big business (38%). (Levada Center, 10.16.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia will be able to deploy members of its active reserve to fight in Ukraine under new amendments backed by the Defense Ministry. The changes, which are likely to be approved by parliament, would also allow Putin to avoid another mobilization. (RFE/RL, 10.15.25)
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin is expected to resign and be replaced by a civilian industry official, the RBC news outlet reported on Oct. 16, citing two people familiar with the plans. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Oct. 13 that it thwarted a planned bomb attack on a senior military officer that was allegedly organized by Ukrainian special services in coordination with the Islamic State (MT/AFP, 10.13.25)

• Former Russian Supreme Court Judge Viktor Momotov is facing new accusations of involvement in a child prostitution scheme, adding to charges that he illegally operated hotels while serving in public office, state media reported Oct. 14. The Prosecutor General’s Office is seeking to confiscate 95 properties prosecutors say were registered under business associate Andrei Marchenko but effectively controlled by Momotov. The assets include the Marton hotel chain, which spans some 40 properties across Russia valued at more than 9 billion rubles ($113 million). (MT/AFP, 10.14.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia’s exports in August 2025 totaled $31.5 billion, down 17.1% month-on-month and 8.9% year-on-year, according to the Central Bank. Imports fell 4.9% from July to $24 billion. The trade surplus was $7.5 billion, down 41.3% from July and 13.7% year-on-year. For January–August, exports reached $264.2 billion (-5.2% y/y) and imports $177.9 billion (virtually flat y/y). (Kommersant, 10.14.25)
• French police arrested four people this week on terrorism charges over a plot to assassinate Russian opposition activist Vladimir Osechkin, founder of Gulagu.net, who monitors abuse in Russian prisons. Osechkin confirmed the attempt on his life, thanking French security services for thwarting it. Prosecutors have opened a formal investigation, with all suspects remaining in custody. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)
• Russia has allocated more than 5,000 state-funded university places for students from African countries in the current academic year, the head of the state-sponsored cultural diplomacy agency Rossotrudnichestvo said. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)
• Newly revealed evidence confirms Hans Marsalek, grandfather of fugitive ex-Wirecard executive Jan Marsalek, was recruited as a spy for Czechoslovakia and the Soviet bloc during the early Cold War. Jan Marsalek, now wanted for Wirecard fraud and identified as a Russian intelligence asset, fled to Moscow after Wirecard’s collapse. Both men have histories of espionage against the West. (Financial Times, 10.17.25) 

Ukraine:

• The IMF forecast Ukraine’s GDP growth of 2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, unchanged from its April 2025 projections. The figures signal a pause in downward revisions, though they remain lower than the Fund’s October 2024 forecasts of 2.5% and 5.3%, respectively. (BNE, 10.15.24)
  • The IMF’s chief plans to travel to Ukraine in a show of support for the war-battered nation, bolstering Kyiv’s ambition to secure a new loan package in the fourth year of Russia’s war. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva intends to visit, though the exact time needs to be determined. (Bloomberg, 10.15.25)
• Zelenskyy revoked the citizenship of Odesa mayor Hennady Trukhanov, claiming he holds forbidden Russian citizenship—a charge Trukhanov denies. This move, which sidelines Trukhanov, marks an escalation in Kyiv’s feud with opposition-led cities. Security services published a Russian passport under Trukhanov’s name. Zelenskyy also announced plans to install a military administration in Odesa, raising concerns about centralization of power. (New York Times, 10.14.25)
  • In an effort to replace Trukhanov, Zelenskyy appointed Serhii Lysak as head of the newly formed Odesa Military Administration on Oct. 15. Then, Ihor Koval, the secretary of the Odesa city council and a Zelenskyy ally, appointed himself as the city's acting mayor on Oct. 16. Under the law, the city council's secretary becomes acting mayor in the event of the mayor's dismissal or death or if the mayor is unable to exercise his or her powers. (Kyiv Independent, 10.16.25)
• Poland is seeking protective measures against an increase in imports of duty-free steel from Ukraine that has put its domestic industry in jeopardy, a government official said. (Bloomberg, 10.14.25)
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and police detained 20 organizers of draft-dodging schemes across the country. For $3,000–$14,000, suspects forged documents, arranged false exemptions, or helped men illegally cross borders. Among the detained were doctors selling fake health certificates, company employees providing false job protections, and guides leading evaders through forests into the EU. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)
• In the Zaporizhzhia region, two military enlistment officials were caught taking a $2,000 bribe from a war veteran to process his registration. According to investigators, one official threatened to declare the veteran wanted and send him back to the front if he didn’t pay. The officials were arrested during the bribe exchange; one attempted to flee by car, throwing cash out the window, but was apprehended. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.16.25)
• According to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 40% of Ukrainians consider their country hopelessly corrupt—down from 47% in 2024. Meanwhile, 56% now believe there are genuine efforts to fight corruption, up from 48% last year. The poll surveyed 1,008 adults by phone in government-controlled regions. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.17.25)
• Around 90% of Ukrainians believe the government can be criticized, even during a full-scale war, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on Oct. 17. Of those respondents, 58% said that criticism should be balanced and constructive, in order "to not destabilize the situation in the country." Another 32% support harsh and uncompromising criticism, while only 8% oppose any criticism of the authorities, the survey showed. (Kyiv Independent, 10.17.25)
• A Polish court has refused to extradite Ukrainian citizen Volodymyr Zhuravlev, suspected of involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, to Germany. The court also lifted his pretrial detention. Polish officials had previously stated that extradition was not in Warsaw’s interests. Zhuravlev is one of two suspects arrested in Europe in connection with the Nord Stream explosions. (Istories, 10.17.25)
• Two Ukrainian men, Roman Lavrynovych and Petro Pochynok, pleaded not guilty at London’s Old Bailey to arson charges related to three fires in May, including one at U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s family home. A trial is set for April 2026. U.K. security officials are investigating possible Russian involvement in the attacks. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Estonia temporarily closed a road through Russian territory after a group of Russian soldiers was spotted there; authorities say there is no direct threat as the situation calmed, but the closure remains in place. (Washington Post, 10.12.25)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko admitted to a prolonged downturn in several sectors of the Belarusian economy and noted Russia’s economy is “shrinking.” Citing underperforming industry, stagnant exports and low investment—along with nearly 67% of Belarus’s exports and 56% of imports tied to Russia—he called for a “mobilization economy” as current growth remains under 2%. Lukashenko also questioned the feasibility of reaching next year’s growth targets. (Korrespondent.net, 10.16.25)
• The European Court of Human Rights on Oct. 14 ordered Russia to pay Georgia more than 250 million euros ($289,000) for violations committed after the brief war between the two countries in August 2008. (MT/AFP, 10.14.25
• Russia gave Azerbaijani authorities a plan allegedly drafted by former presidential chief of staff Ramiz Mehdiyev to seize power in Azerbaijan, according to Azerbaijani media. Mehdiyev reportedly sought Moscow’s support for a coup during a period of bilateral tension in late 2024. Instead, Russia passed the plot details to Baku. Mehdiyev was placed under house arrest on charges of coup plotting and treason. (Istories, 10.16.25)
• Police in the South Caucasus country of Georgia arrested five Russians accused of running an unlicensed cryptocurrency business and laundering money through illicit financial channels, authorities said Oct. 16. (MT/AFP, 10.16.25)
• Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov discussed the detention of Armenian citizens in Baku during the peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh. Official data show 23 Armenians remain in Azerbaijani custody, including those captured during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Mirzoyan expressed hope for “good news soon,” saying Yerevan continues efforts to secure their release, despite reports of mistreatment. (Kommersant, 10.14.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• When Trump and Putin meet in Budapest, there is no guarantee the U.S. leader will not be swayed. “With Trump it is a constant game of tug of war,” said one senior European official involved in talks with the White House on Ukraine. “You talk to him, help get him to a place where he sees that Putin is a problem, and then you move on and he shifts back toward Putin’s position. So you have to talk again. It’s like that, over and over.” (FT, 10.17.25)
• “This week's Russian-U.S. brinksmanship over Ukraine wasn't the Cuban missile crisis, but it was a significant moment of superpower saber-rattling. It appears to have ended inconclusively, with promises of future diplomacy but no sign yet of compromise,” according to David Ignatius. (Washington Post, 10.17.25)

Footnotes

1. The account of the Alaska summit is based on interviews with eight Western and Ukrainian officials and diplomats briefed on the meeting, as well as people in Moscow close to back-channel efforts to end the war. (Financial Times, 10.17.25)
2. For Ukraine, the prospect of a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest is deeply unsettling — not only because the Hungarian capital has long cultivated friendly ties with Moscow, but also because it evokes the international community’s failure to protect Kyiv from aggression. In Budapest in 1994, a newly independent Ukraine signed a memorandum under which it agreed to return Soviet nuclear weapons based in its territory to Russia in exchange for “security assurances” from Russia, the United States and Britain. (New York Times, 10.17.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Alex Brandon.