Oct. 14 update: In the past week, Oct. 7–14, 2025, Russia has gained 48 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up from the previous week’s gain of 34 square miles, which constitutes an increase of 41%. In the past four weeks (Sept. 16–Oct. 14, 2025), Russian forces gained 123 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease of 46% from the 226 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to meet in D.C. on Oct. 17 to discuss Kyiv’s request for U.S.-made air defense assets as well as for Tomahawk cruise missiles, with the latter to be used against targets deep inside Russia. The U.S. is estimated to have 4,150 of these missiles, which have a range of up to 1,550 miles, but it could only spare some 20 to 50 of them for Ukraine, “which will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war,” according to Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security. In comparison, Russia fired more than 100 cruise missiles at Ukraine in September 2025 alone, according to this card.

Territorial Control (figures as of Oct. 14, 2025)

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and change in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +28,532 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of the U.S. state of Iowa).
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +45,157 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)¹
• In the period of Sept. 16–Oct. 14, 2025: Russian forces gained 123 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease of 46% from the 226 square miles it gained in the previous four-week period of Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025.² Since Jan. 1, 2025, the average monthly rate of Russian gains has been 168 square miles.
• In past week (Oct. 7–14, 2025): Russia gained 48 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about one and a half Manhattan islands)—a 41% increase over the previous week’s (Sept. 30–Oct. 7, 2025) gain of 34 square miles.
• In Russia, Ukraine’s foothold across Kursk and Belgorod regions stayed the same this week as last (Sept. 30–Oct. 7, 2025): 4 square miles.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–September 2025.(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties (see footnotes for detailed source estimates)

• Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by then-SACEUR Cavoli.³ 50,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.⁴ 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 652 killed.⁵
• Ukraine: 14,383 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁶

• Russia: 22,909 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 13,293.  
  • Aircraft: 332.⁷
  • Naval vessels: 22.⁸
• Ukraine: 9,974 lost.
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 5,057.
  • Aircraft: 188.⁹
  • Naval vessels: 35.¹⁰

Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian interceptions¹¹

In September 2025

• Russia launched
  • 5,828 drones
  • 27 ballistic missiles
  • 115 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 5,092 drones
  • 2 ballistic missiles
  • 99 cruise missiles

Since September 2022

• Russia launched
  • 55,578 drones
  • 665 ballistic missiles
  • 4,046 cruise missiles
• Ukraine intercepted
  • 36,694 drones
  • 142 ballistic missiles
  • 2,867 cruise missiles

Citizens displaced

• Russia:
  • Internally displaced: 5,000 as of August 2025.
  • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
• Ukraine: 9.5 million displaced Ukrainians, 22% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million, including:
  • Internally displaced: 3.8 million as of September 2025.
  • International refugees: 5.7 million, as of September 2025.

Economic impact¹²

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 0.9% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7% of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01232 U.S. dollars. 5% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 15.4%.
• Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02400 U.S. dollars. -28% since the invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.7%.

Infrastructure

• Russia:  
  • A journalistic investigation by RFE/RL estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
  • As of early October 2025, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported to have forced nearly 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity offline, with at least 70% of shutdowns directly linked to these strikes, according to Russian energy market data. (RM, 10.03.25)
• Ukraine:  
  • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.¹³
    • For one recent visualization of the vulnerability of Ukraine’s power grid to Russian aggression, see this FT product, updated June 17, 2025.
  • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
  • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.
  • Russia has damaged around 40% of Ukraine’s gas production facilities as of early 2025.
  • Ukraine's energy infrastructure is operating at only about one third of its pre-invasion generation capacity as of Fall 2025.
  • In early October 2025, Russia was reported to have destroyed 60% of Ukraine’s gas production ahead of winter 2025-2026. 

Popular support

• Russia: 62% support peace negotiations.¹⁴
• Ukraine: 74% support negotiated peace (along the current front line and backed by Western security guarantees)

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes:

1. According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Oct. 14, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 115,077 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,431 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory.
2. RM will only include weekly percentage change if the percentage change is greater than +/- 10%.
3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   3. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
   4. More than 700,000, according to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
   5. 950,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including 250,000 killed and 700,000 injured.
   6. More than 1,000,000, including 250,000 killed, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s June 2025 estimate.
   7. 100,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war this year, NATO Secretary General Matt Rutte said in July 2025.
   8. 219,000 Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war, according to Meduza and Mediazona’s August 2025 estimate.
   9. More than 50,000 inquiries have been submitted by Russians seeking missing soldiers through Ukraine’s "I Want to Find" project, according to Ukrainian media.
4. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and injured [in chronological order]:
   1. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
   2. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 injured, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
   3. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
   4. 400,000 killed or injured, according to CSIS’s June 2025 estimate, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
5. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. A July 2025 estimate by Russia’s Foreign Ministry put the total number of “peaceful residents” who were allegedly killed by “actions of the Ukrainian authorities and their armed formations” from early 2022 to June 2025 at “almost” 7,500.
6. Oryx has not updated its estimates of military vehicles and equipment lost since Oct. 7, 2025. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024.
7. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. In May 2025, Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats. On June 1, 2025 Ukraine destroyed an estimated total of 11 to 12 Russian strategic bombers. On June 7, 2025 Ukraine said  that its forces shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet over the Kursk region, according to MT. On June 27, 2025, Ukraine claimed to have struck four Su-34 aircraft in Russia’s Volgograd region.
8. Oryx is not updating losses of warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. According to a May 2025 estimate by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, since the war’s start, Russia has lost at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels.
9. Oryx is not updating its estimates of aircraft losses as of June 24, 2025. Ukraine was reported to have lost 3 F-16s as of May 2025. On June 28, 2025 Ukraine admitted to losing a pilot and his F-16 jet. Then on Sept. 11, 2025, Ukrainian Su-27 pilot Maj. Oleksandr Borovyk was reported to have been killed on while carrying out a combat mission.
10. Oryx is not updating losses of Ukrainian warships as of Jan. 1, 2025. Thus, this number excludes the Ukrainian Navy's reconnaissance ship, Simferopol, which was sunken by a Russian naval drone strike in the Danube River estuary on Aug. 28, 2025.
11. Jensen, Benjamin and Yasir Atalan, “Russian Firepower Strike Tracker: Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 17, 2024, https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine?f%5B0%5D=content_type%3Aarticle&f%5B1%5D=content_type%3Areport. Note that due to limitations associated with refreshing of attack and intercept data, this section of the scorecard is updated once a month.
12. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01. This count does not include the loss of the Ukrainian reconnaissance warship near the mouth of the Danube river where it was attacked by a Russian naval drone on Aug. 28, 2025.
13. Combining the occupied, destroyed and damaged power capacities, Ukraine has lost a total of approximately 48% (27 gigawatts) of its pre-war installed capacity of 56.1 GW, according to an alternative estimate in a July 2025 report by CSIS.
14. As many as 80% would support Putin's decision to end the conflict without any conditions this week, according to Levada's latest poll. However, if that decision was accompanied by return of the annexed territories, only 33% would support that (an increase of 5 percentage points since February), according to Levada's September poll.

* This card was produced by RM staff and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project’s researcher Quinn Urich and research assistant Maryana Schnitser.