4 Things to Know

1. Despite the past week’s initial hopes that Donald Trump’s subsequent meetings with Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders would advance talks on the Ukraine conflict toward a breakthrough, the negotiations on the subject remained riddled with contradictions and stalled outcomes as of Aug. 22. For instance, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Putin was amenable to “Article 5-like” guarantees for Kyiv, yet Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov insisted Moscow must hold veto power over any guarantees, suggesting that the P5 should provide them. Lavrov also discouraged Trump’s public hopes for quickly organizing a Zelenskyy-Putin summit, making clear Russia would presently agree to negotiate only at levels lower than heads of states. Meanwhile, European leaders flatly rejected giving Russia the veto on security guarantees, while Zelenskyy also ruled out China as a postwar security guarantor. It remains unclear whether and how these differences¹ can be reconciled.
2. In the period of July 22–Aug. 19, Russian forces gained 237 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 2% decrease from the 241 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 15–Aug. 12, 2025, according to the latest issue of RM’s The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Comparing shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, shows that in the period of Aug. 12–19, 2025, Russia gained 25 square miles of Ukrainian territory (roughly one Manhattan island), which marks a 67% decrease from the 76 square miles Russian forces gained in the period of Aug. 5–12, 2025. One of the reasons Russia has been able to make gains every week² is that it has more personnel than Ukraine to employ in combat. “Today, Russia recruits about 1,000 soldiers a day,” which is “about twice as high as Ukraine's” recruitment, according to The New York Times.*
   1. A map that Trump showed to Zelenskyy during their Aug. 18 meeting indicates that Russian forces control 99% of the Luhansk region and 76% of the Donetsk region, which together constitute Donbass. U.S. intelligence estimates on whether and when Russia could take the rest of Donbass vary. “One assessment posits that Putin could seize all of Donetsk by October. Another predicts a far harder and inconclusive slog,“ according to Axios.
3. Russia has more than doubled the number of missiles and drones it has fired monthly into Ukraine since January, according to the Wall Street Journal. Most recently, the night of Aug. 20 to 21 saw Russia launch the third largest strike of the war, launching 574 drones and 40 missiles against 11 locations in Ukraine, according to ISW. The number of Russian long-distance strikes can be expected to increase further, and it is likely that more of them will reach targets in Ukraine as Russian drone and missile production increases (in fact, Russia may soon fire 2,000 drones a day), further attriting Ukraine’s already strained air defenses.³
4. India is under increasing pressure from the Trump administration over its continued purchases of Russian oil, with White House trade adviser Peter Navarro expecting punitive tariffs of 50% on imports from the South Asian nation to kick in next week. But is such pressure justified or are the Indian leaders right to complain about “double standards in Washington, which continues to buy Russian uranium hexafluoride, and in the EU, which remains a key buyer of Russian liquefied natural gas,” as the Wall Street Journal reported? Here are three facts which may help you decide if Indian leaders have a point: First, the U.S. continues to import enriched uranium from Russia. In fact, in 2024, the U.S. imported $624 million worth of Russian HEU, according to Comtrade’s international trade data. Second, the U.S. imported $1.3 billion of fertilizers from Russia, according to the New York Times. Third, Russia was the second largest source of gas imported by the European Union in 2024, with Russian supplies to the EU increasing by 18% that year. The EU also purchased $8.5 billion worth of LNG from Russia that year, according to CREA and The Economic Times.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• According to Russia’s Federal Nuclear and Radiological Security Program, the Mayak RT-1 plant reprocessed 134.3 tons of spent nuclear fuel in 2024, slightly above its recent historical average. Mayak’s nominal reprocessing capacity is 400 tons/year, but actual throughput has averaged 110–130 tons annually. From 2016–2024, the plant reprocessed 993 tons in total. (Fissile Materials, 08.21.25)
• Russia said it had appointed the first woman captain of a nuclear-powered icebreaker as the country marked the 80th anniversary of its atomic industry. Marina Starovoitova is taking charge of the Yamal icebreaker, Rosatom, the national nuclear corporation, said late Aug. 20. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korean state media on Aug. 22 released images of leader Kim Jong Un kneeling before portraits of soldiers killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, as well as embracing a visibly emotional veteran of the conflict. (MT/AFP, 08.22.25)
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for the “rapid expansion” of his country’s nuclear weapons program, escalating tensions with the U.S. and South Korea as the allies conduct joint military drills that Pyongyang views as a prelude to war. (Bloomberg, 08.19.25)
• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will press U.S. President Donald Trump to reopen the stalled dialogue with North Korea when he holds his first summit with the U.S. president next week, his top aide said. (Bloomberg, 08.22.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• International Atomic Energy Agency officials will travel to Washington next week to confer with the U.S. as concerns grow about their inability to account for Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium, according to diplomats with knowledge of the situation. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia continues to relentlessly bombard Ukraine each day, killing and wounding civilians. July was the deadliest month in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, with 286 people killed and 1,388 wounded, according to the United Nations. The number of civilians killed and wounded in Ukraine in the first seven months of the year increased by 48 percent compared with the same period the year before. (Washington Post, 08.19.25)
• Russia has returned the bodies of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, five of whom died while in Russian captivity, authorities in Kyiv and Moscow said Aug. 19. (MT/AFP, 08.19.25)
• Russia and Ukraine have exchanged lists of 31 civilians each for a possible mutual swap, Russia’s Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova said. (Moscow Times, 08.18.25).
• Ukrainian authorities carried out a large-scale evacuation from frontline areas of the Donetsk region. Around 7,000 people were evacuated on Aug. 14 alone. (Meduza, 08.18.25)
• Russia has returned three Ukrainian children and one disabled young man to their families with the help of Qatari mediators, the Kremlin’s children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova said Aug. 21. (MT/AFP, 08.21.25)
• According to Ukrainian government figures, over 19,500 children were taken to Russia, with just 1,545 recovered so far. (New York Times, 08.19.25).
• During the Alaska summit, Trump hand-delivered a “peace letter” from First Lady Melania Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to “protect the innocence” of children and restore normalcy for those affected by the war. (Axios, 08.18.25)
• An estimated 120,000 Ukrainians who fled to the U.S. in the past two years will begin losing their humanitarian protections on a rolling basis starting Aug. 15. (Wall Street Journal, 08.14.25)
  • The first Ukrainian refugees have been deported from the United States after losing the right to stay when humanitarian programs were canceled, according to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (UNN.Ua, 08.19.25, Istories, 08.19.25). The post by ICE on its X account on this subject was unavailable as of Aug. 20, 2025.
• Ukraine has repatriated 65 of its citizens who had been held at the Dariali checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. (Meduza, 08.22.25)
• On Aug. 22, Ukraine received a new tranche of €4.05 billion in financial aid from the European Union. This includes €1 billion from ERA Loans, financed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets, and €3.05 billion through the Ukraine Facility to support recovery and integration. The funds will bolster Ukraine’s state budget and reconstruction efforts, underscoring ongoing EU support for Ukraine’s European integration. (RBC.ua, 08.22.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the period of July 22–Aug. 19, Russian forces gained 237 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which marks a 2% decrease from the 241 square miles these forces gained in the period of July 15–Aug. 12, 2025. Comparing shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, shows that in the period of Aug. 12–19, 2025, Russia gained 25 square miles of Ukrainian territory (roughly one Manhattan island), which marks a 67% decrease from the 76 square miles Russian forces gained in the period of Aug. 5–12, 2025. (The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, 08.20.25)
• U.S. intelligence estimates vary on Russia's strength, a source said. One assessment posits that Putin could seize all of Donetsk by October. Another predicts a far harder and inconclusive slog. (Axios, 08.18.25)
• A map that Trump showed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during their latest summit, gave the following estimates for Russian control of Ukraine:
  • Sumy region: 1%.
  • Kharkiv region: 4%
  • Luhansk region: 99%
  • Donetsk region: 76%
  • Zaporizhzhia region: 73%
  • Kherson region: 73%
  • Crimea: 100%
  • Mykolaiv region: 1% (RM, 08.18.25)
• Russia controls about 88% of the Donbass and 73% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to U.S. estimates and open-source data. (Reuters, 08.21.25)
• Russia controls only about three-quarters of Donetsk. In the Ukrainian-controlled area of western Donetsk, roughly the size of Delaware, fighting is fierce. The small groups of soldiers that Russia is using, numbering two, three or four, have exploited gaps in the Ukrainian frontline near the town of Dobropillia. (New York Times, 08.20.25)
• While the Ukrainian military has stemmed significant territorial losses, the most battle-hardened brigades are exhausted after being used to plug holes and engage in the most serious fighting wherever it exists. (New York Times, 08.20.25)
• Putin is pushing to capture as much land as possible along a frontline that stretches about 750 miles, almost the distance from Chicago to New York. As ever-growing swarms of surveillance drones make any movement on the battlefield dangerous, the Russians are sending in small groups of soldiers on foot who are harder to detect. They effectively sneak past the Ukrainian troops, regroup and then attack, repeating this cycle as they inch forward. (New York Times, 08.20.25)
• The median age of a Russian soldier killed in Ukraine in the first months of the war was 28. It rose to 38 by August of this year, according to Mediazona. (New York Times, 08.20.25)
• Russia has used its increased supply of drones to drastically escalate its bombing campaign, launching an average of 200 drones every night in July and once topping more than 700. Early in the war, Russia's biggest attacks included 40 drones, according to RUSI. In fact, Russian drone and missile attacks have more than doubled since January according to the Wall Street Journal. While Russia launched 2,700 drones against Ukraine in January, they managed to launch over 6,400 drones in July. (Wall Street Journal, 08.09.25, Russia Matters, 08.13.25, New York Times, 08.20.25, New York Times, 08.20.25) This number will continue to increase and it is likely that more targets in Ukraine will be hit as Russian drone and missile production increases and further attrits Ukraine’s already strained air defenses.
• Today, Russia recruits about 1,000 soldiers a day. The figure has stayed broadly stable since 2023, and it is about twice as high as Ukraine's. Russia has tripled production of the Geran-2 drones since 2023 and makes about 80 a day, according to The Royal United Services Institute. (New York Times, 08.20.25, New York Times, 08.20.25)
• For facts that explain why Putin thinks he is winning in Ukraine, consult “Why Putin Thinks Russia Has the Upper Hand Against Ukraine,” Anatoly Kurmanaev, Josh Holder, Paul Sonne, Oleg Matsnev, New York Times, 08.14.25, which says:
  • “Today, Russia recruits about 1,000 soldiers a day. The figure has stayed broadly stable since 2023, and it is about twice as high as Ukraine’s.”
  • “About 230,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion... Their replacements are older, with less military experience.”
  • “Last year, Russian industry produced more than 1.3 million standard artillery rounds, up from 250,000 in 2022.”
  • “Production of Iskander short-range ballistic missiles... nearly tripled last year from 2023 to reach 700.”
  • “Production of upgrade kits [for guided munitions] has grown from a few thousand units in 2023 to a projected 70,000 this year.”
  • “Russia has tripled production of the Geran-2 since 2023 and makes about 80 a day.” This New York Times article delivers a detailed presentation of data to address its headline question: “Why does Putin think he has the upper hand?” Yet, curiously, the article sidesteps the most direct answer: because he really does have the upper hand. As readers of RM's weekly Russia-Ukraine War Report Card know, every week, Russian troops have advanced further and hold more Ukrainian territory than they did the previous week since at least December 2024, when RM's most recent weekly tracking efforts began. The straightforward reality is that consistent battlefield gains underlie Putin’s confidence—something the data in the NYT piece repeatedly confirms.

Friday, August 15, 2025

• Russia launched intense drone and missile strikes across Ukraine, causing civilian casualties and damage. The Ukrainian Air Force reported 97 Shahed-type and decoy drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles were launched the night of Aug. 14–15 from regions including Kursk, Oryol, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Smolensk. Strikes targeted frontline areas of Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Chernihiv oblasts; missiles struck Kharkiv and Chernihiv. Ukrainian defenses shot down or suppressed 63 drones over northern and eastern regions. (ISW, 08.15.25)
• On Aug. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces drove back the Russian forces near Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodyazh, Vesele, Vesele, Shakhove, Nykanorivka and Sukhetske. (RM, 08.22.25)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

• On Aug. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zelenyi Hai and advanced near Lozova and Popiv Yar. (RM, 08.22.25)
• The Ukrainian military on Aug. 16 said it had driven Russian forces back about 2 kilometers along parts of the front lines near the major northeastern city of Sumy, site of a recent offensive by Kremlin troops seeking to capture more territory against the outgunned and outmanned Ukrainians. (RFE/RL, 08.17.25)

Sunday, August 17, 2025

• On Aug. 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Hryhorivka, Voskresenka and Temyrivka. (RM, 08.22.25)

Monday, August 18, 2025

• On Monday, Aug. 18, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Temyrivka, Olhivske and Muravka. (RM, 08. 22.25)
• Russia launched another wave of ballistic missiles and 140 drones at Ukraine. Hours after Zelenskyy of Ukraine arrived in Washington for high-stakes meetings to discuss a possible path to peace with Moscow, Russian attacks on large Ukrainian cities and villages near the front killed 10 people and injured dozens, the local authorities said. The Russian military carried out two missile strikes on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, Gov. Ivan Fedorov reported. He later confirmed that three people were killed and at least 20 others wounded.  Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that at least seven people were killed in the attack. (Meduza, 08.18.25, Meduza, 08.18.25, New York Times, 08.19.25, Washington Post, 08.18.25)
• Deputy Commander of Russia's North Group of Forces, Esedulla Abachev, was seriously injured in Ukraine, with reports he had arm and leg amputations following a Ukrainian strike on a convoy in Kursk region. He is now hospitalized in Moscow. Abachev, a decorated officer from Dagestan, was previously named a Hero of Russia and the LPR for his role in the war. (Istories, 08.18.25)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

• On Aug. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Serebryanske forestry and near Olhivske. (RM, 08.22.25)
• Overnight, Ukrainian drone attacks sparked a brief fire at one of southern Russia’s largest oil refineries, as well as a hospital in the city of Volgograd, authorities said early Aug. 19. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones in the Volgograd region overnight, in addition to five each in the Rostov region and annexed Crimea. The Volgograd oil refinery is Lukoil’s largest in southern Russia. Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out operations at the facility Aug. 14. (MT/AFP, 08.19.25)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

• On Aug. 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Torske, Filiya, Zaporizke, Maliivka and Vilne Pole. (RM, 08.22.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service said Aug. 20 that its agents killed and detained members of a Ukrainian sabotage group in the western Bryansk region, claiming that they were involved in terrorist attacks inside the country. (MT/AFP, 08.20.25)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

• On Aug. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Serebryanske forestry, near Serebryanka and Olhivske, but were pushed back from Tolstoy. (RM, 08.22.25)
• Russia launched the third largest strike of the war thus far (which is also Russia’s largest combined drone and missile attack in over a month) against Ukraine on the night of Aug. 20 to 21, targeting Western regions of Ukraine and causing significant damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that overnight, Russian forces launched 574 Shahed-type and decoy drones from over Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities, Millerovo, Rostov Oblast, Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast, Primorsko Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea; four Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from over Lipetsk and Voronezh oblasts; two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from over Voronezh Oblast; 19 Kh-101 cruise missiles from over Saratov Oblast; 14 Kalibr cruise missiles from over the Black Sea; and one unidentified missile from over occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces reportedly downed 546 drones, one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, 18 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 12 Kalibr cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that drones and missiles struck 11 locations throughout Ukraine. (ISW, 08.21.25, Financial Times, 08.22.25, RBC.ua, 08.21.25)
  • Russia launched two Kalibr missiles at a factory belonging to a major American electronics maker in Mukachevo, western Ukraine, around 4:40 a.m., wounding at least 15 workers—12 of whom were hospitalized, two in serious condition. (RBC.ua, 08.21.25).
• Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine’s long-range cruise missile “Flamingo” has achieved a range of 3,000 kilometers in tests and will soon enter mass production. The Flamingo, potentially modeled after the FP-5, can carry a one-ton warhead and reach speeds of up to 950 km. Ukraine currently produces about one Flamingo long-range cruise missile per day and plans to ramp up to seven per day by October. (RBC.ua, 08.21.25, Mezha Media, 08.21.25)
• Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin has been dismissed as commander of Russia’s Northern Group of Forces, the Defense Ministry announced on Aug. 21. He is succeeded by Col. Gen. Yevgeny Nikiforov, who previously led the Western Group. (Istories, 08.21.25)

Friday, August 22, 2025

• Ukrainian forces carried out new strikes on the Unecha oil pumping station of the Druzhba pipeline, located in Russia's Bryansk Oblast. (Status-6 X account, 08.22.25)

Military aid to Ukraine, including security guarantees:

Saturday, August 16, 2025

• The U.S. has proposed security guarantees for Ukraine similar to — but separate from — the collective defense agreement between NATO member countries, Italy's premier and a diplomatic source said on Saturday. "As one of the security guarantees for Ukraine, the American side proposed a non-NATO Article 5 type guarantee,⁴ supposedly agreed with Putin," the diplomatic source told AFP. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was on the call with Trump, confirmed the U.S. president had raised the idea of security guarantee "inspired" by Article 5, which she has been pushing for several months. (MT/AFP, 08.16.25)

Sunday, August 17, 2025

• Trump and Putin agreed at their summit in Alaska that the U.S. would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine, according to Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, even as many details of the Aug. 15 meeting remain unclear. “We got to an agreement that the U.S. and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine,” Witkoff said on CNN’s State of the Union, referring to the NATO provision that says if one ally is attacked, it is considered an attack on all member states. Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio fanned out across the Sunday morning U.S. news talk shows to offer conflicting details of the Alaska summit that neither president revealed in their brief news conference following the meeting. (Bloomberg, 08.17.25)

Monday, August 18, 2025

• On Aug. 18, Trump again held out the prospect of U.S. security guarantees and floated the proposal  for a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy while hosting the Ukrainian leader in the White House. “There’ll be a lot of help when it comes to security,” the U.S. president said during the bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, according to Financial Times. In addition to the security guarantees³ and the trilateral meeting, the two also discussed the exchange of prisoners, according to Zelenskyy. The generally congenial bilateral meeting, during which Zelenskyy was careful not to irritate Trump, choosing not to repeat his refusal to concede territory while repeatedly thanking his host for efforts to resolve the conflict, was followed by a broader-format meeting, during which Trump and Zelenskyy were joined by several European leaders. The meeting was attended by Zelenskyy, France’s Emmanuel Macron, the UK’s Keir Starmer, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. (RM, 08.18.25)
  • Western leaders, at the Aug. 18 summit, reaffirmed the need for strong security guarantees for Ukraine, discussed future Ukraine-Russia meetings, and continued support from NATO and EU. Trump said the U.S. will help coordinate security guarantees—mainly provided by Europe—and that both sides agreed to work together on POW exchanges and returning Ukrainian children taken by Russia. (ISW, 08.18.25).
  • Security guarantees for Ukraine will include its own “strong army,” an agreement with the United States to purchase weapons, and domestic drone production, Zelenskyy said at a press briefing after his meeting at the White House on Aug. 18. Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine “cannot lose its army,” which must be the first element of security guarantees. Zelenskyy said he “had a very good conversation” with Trump. “I think it was the best one, or maybe the best one will be in the future,” he said. He said they spoke about security guarantees and it was “very good.” Kyiv promised Washington it would buy $100 billion worth of U.S. weapons using European funds. (Meduza, 08.19.25, Financial Times, 08.18.25)
    • Ukraine has welcomed the security guarantee proposal. “Our desire for NATO membership remains unchanged, but as an interim solution, we will be satisfied with any truly effective security guarantees,” Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s defense and intelligence committee, said. (New York Times, 08.19.25)
• On Aug. 18, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: “We reaffirm our position on our categorical rejection of any scenarios involving the appearance of a military contingent in Ukraine with the participation of NATO countries,” she said. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

• Trump said Aug. 19 that the United States will help defend Ukraine after its war with Russia but that there will not be U.S. troops on the ground. "You have my assurance," Trump said in a Fox News interview, a day after hosting Zelenskyy and other European leaders. Trump said during the meetings Aug. 18 that the United States would be "involved" in security guarantees for Ukraine after the war but did not elaborate. He added more clarity in the morning interview with "Fox & Friends." "When it comes to security, they're willing to put people on the ground," Trump said, referring to the European nations. "We're willing to help them with things, especially probably … by air because there's nobody that has the kind of stuff we have." (Washington Post, 08.19.25, Financial Times, 08.19.25)
  • European national security advisors and military chiefs will now hammer out who might do what in terms of security guarantees, officials said. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a meeting of the coalition on Aug. 19 that they would meet with U.S. counterparts in the coming days. (Washington Post, 08.19.25)
  • About 10 European countries would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine once Russia’s full-scale war ends, Bloomberg reports, citing informed sources. (Meduza, 08.19.25)
  • Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament foreign affairs committee, said the possibility of American security guarantees "is indeed a great progress." (Washington Post, 08.19.25)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

• On Aug. 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov⁵ insisted that Russia must have effective veto power over any Western security guarantees provided to Ukraine after a peace deal, challenging ongoing negotiations supported by Trump. Lavrov dismissed the likelihood of a near-term summit between Russian and Ukrainian leaders and warned that any security arrangements excluding Moscow would be “a road to nowhere.” He rejected proposals involving NATO troops in Ukraine and suggested that major powers—namely the U.S., U.K., France, China and Russia—should jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security, stressing that Moscow’s involvement is essential to address the “root causes” of the conflict. Lavrov’s pushback on security guarantees has effectively fractured Russia’s talks with the U.S., a European official with knowledge of the matter said. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25, Wall Street Journal, 08.21.25, MT/AFP, 08.20.25, Newsweek, 08.20.25, Kyiv Independent, 08.20.25)
  • Zelenskyy has ruled out Beijing as a potential guarantor of peace. He pushed back against Russia’s idea to add China as a security guarantor in the event of a ceasefire. “We don’t need guarantors who don’t help Ukraine, and didn’t help Ukraine at the moment when we really needed it,” Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25, Bloomberg, 08.21.25)
• European leaders issued a joint statement rejecting any peace agreement that would give Russia veto power over Ukraine’s efforts to join the European Union or NATO, or limit Ukraine’s armed forces or foreign partnerships. European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas said security guarantees “must be robust and credible.” (ISW, 08.20.25)
• A recent Economist/YouGov poll (Aug. 15–18, 2025) finds 32% of Americans want the U.S. to increase military aid to Ukraine, while 27% favor decreasing or ending it, and 21% prefer current levels. Nearly 70% say their ideal outcome for the war would see Russia controlling no Ukrainian territory, but only 11% expect that result. 62% of Americans support the U.S. being involved in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Trump’s recent meeting with Putin received 41% approval (76% among Republicans, 33% of Independents, 13% of Democrats), and 38% disapproval. In comparison, the July 18–21, 2025 Economist/YouGov poll showed that 33% of Americans wanted to increase military aid to Ukraine, while 23% would keep aid at the same level, 10% would decrease it, and 16% would stop it altogether. The July poll showed that 68% of Americans would prefer for the war to end with Russia controlling no Ukrainian territory, but only 11% expect this to occur. The July poll also showed Americans were slightly more likely to expect Russia to be the ultimate winner of the war than to expect Ukraine to win (27% vs. 17%) (YouGov/Economist, 08.20.25, RM, 08.20.25, The Hill, 08.20.25).

Thursday, August 21, 2025

• Ukraine reportedly proposed a $100 billion U.S. arms purchase and a $50 billion drone production deal (with European financing) in exchange for U.S. security guarantees, according to Financial Times reporting shared with European partners. (ISW, 08.18.25)
  • Zelenskyy’s proposal for $90 billion in American weapons—part of new Western security agreements—would not only bolster Ukraine’s defenses against Russia now but help deter future invasions. Top priorities include Patriot air defenses, F-16s, missiles, artillery, tanks and jamming equipment, with further needs for armored vehicles and naval support if peace is reached. (New York Times, 08.19.25).
• Trump wrote on Truth Social: “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia. Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out? Regardless, this is a war that would have NEVER happened if I were President - ZERO CHANCE. Interesting times ahead!!! President DJT.” (Truth Social, 08.21.25)
• U.S. Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control — including Ukrainian territory that Russia isn’t occupying — as the U.S. tries to broker a peace deal between the two nations. “There really are two big questions lingering out there, and in some ways it’s very simple, but in some ways it’s very complicated,” Vance said in an interview Aug. 20 with Laura Ingraham on Fox News. “Number one is, Ukraine wants to know that it’s not going to get invaded again by Russia. It wants to know that it’s got territorial integrity long into the future. The Russians want certain pieces of territory, most of which they’ve occupied, but some of which they haven’t,” he said. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)
• While Trump and his envoy claim Russia agreed to “Article 5-like” protection, in reality both the U.S. and Russia oppose NATO membership for Ukraine and specifics remain unclear. Lavrov has said the Kremlin will only accept security guarantees for Ukraine that allow Russia to veto their activation—rendering guarantees by the U.S. and Europe essentially meaningless. Lavrov’s stance contradicts U.S. claims that Putin agreed, during his meeting with Trump, to Western-backed security guarantees for Kyiv. (The Economist, 08.20.25)
• European leaders are discussing a security guarantee for Ukraine that would commit Kyiv’s allies to decide within 24 hours whether to provide military support to the country if it’s again attacked by Russia. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is proposing a “NATO-light” security guarantee for Ukraine that would require Kyiv’s allies to decide within 24 hours how to respond if Russia attacks again. (Bloomberg, 08.20.25)
• Ukraine and its European allies dismissed Russia’s demand to be included in any security arrangements for Ukraine as an attempt to leave the country vulnerable. Kyiv insists Moscow should have no say in Western protection mechanisms, warning any Russian “veto” could undermine peace guarantees (Financial Times, 08.21.25).
• On Aug. 21, military chiefs from the United States and a number of European countries presented options to their national security advisers for providing security guarantees to Ukraine, officials said. A Pentagon statement said U.S. and European planners had developed the military options for "appropriate consideration" by allied national security advisers. Reuters was first to report that the military leaders were preparing the options. The chiefs of defense for the United States, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Ukraine met in Washington, D.C., between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21. (Reuters, 08.21.25)
  • One option was sending European forces to Ukraine but putting the United States in charge of their command and control, sources have told Reuters. U.S. air support could come in a variety of ways, including providing more air defense systems to Ukraine and enforcing a no-fly zone with U.S. fighter jets. (Reuters, 08.21.25)
• Work has begun on setting up the military component of the guarantees, which are being discussed as part of a settlement of the war with Russia, Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said on X. "Ukraine is ready for any format of dialogue on a fair end to the war," said Yermak, but he warned against repeating the "mistake of 'Budapest,'" a reference to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, which was aimed at ensuring security in exchange for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons left from the Soviet era. (RFE/RL, 08.21.25)
• U.S. and European military officials are preparing plans for potential European troop deployments and security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a future peace deal. (Wall Street Journal, 08.21.25).
  • European countries want Trump to station U.S. F-35 fighter jets in Romania as part of security guarantees for Ukraine. (Meduza, 08.21.25)
• Moscow is pushing to return to the 2022 Istanbul talks approach, under which Russia and China would guarantee Ukraine’s security in exchange for Kyiv’s neutrality and withdrawal from efforts to join NATO. The draft proposals from that period also limited Ukraine’s military and increased Russian influence over Ukrainian domestic affairs. (Financial Times, 08.21.25).

Friday, August 22, 2025

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that Ukraine would receive two levels of security guarantees: first, a strengthened Ukrainian military as the foundation for peace or a ceasefire; and second, additional guarantees provided by the U.S. and Europe. Rutte stressed that these guarantees must be strong enough to deter any future Russian aggression, unlike previous agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum. (Korrespondent.net, 08.22.25).
• Washington and European countries have inched closer to defining what postwar security guarantees for Ukraine might look like. U.S. and European military planners have begun meetings to explore what the overall security package could be ahead of a final decision on it by political leaders. This includes long-term weapons deliveries, intelligence-sharing and joint defense planning. (RFE/RL, 08.22.25)
• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas ruled out any Russian role in security guarantees for Ukraine, declaring Russia “has no right to vote” on the matter. (Korrespondent.net, 08.22.25).

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Trump said he would not impose new sanctions on Russia or its trading partners for now following his meeting with Putin, saying the talks went “very well” despite their failure to reach a breakthrough on the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 08.16.25)
• Putin’s delegation to the Alaska summit with Trump was forced to pay cash for jet fuel to return to Russia due to U.S. banking sanctions, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC. (Moscow Times, 08.18.25)
• A Moscow court has ruled that Russians who pay for Instagram verification risk criminal prosecution for “financing extremism,” a decision that could carry penalties of up to eight years in prison. (MT/AFP, 08.22.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, August 15, 2025

• At the Alaska summit, before formal talks, Trump and Putin had an unscripted private conversation in the U.S. presidential limousine, “the Beast,” with only their security officers present—no aides, journalists or interpreters. The meeting, captured by cameras as the two entered the car together, has fueled speculation about what was discussed, as neither leader has disclosed any details. (New York Times, 08.16.25)
• At the Alaska summit, Putin demanded Ukraine cede Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia in return for a freeze along the rest of the front line, while Trump dropped calls for a ceasefire and relayed Putin’s demands to Zelenskyy and European leaders. Ukrainian and EU officials stressed Ukraine would not agree to such terms and that security guarantees were vital for lasting peace. The summit ended without a deal, prompting European leaders to warn against negotiating territory without a ceasefire and to urge caution about Putin’s promises. (Financial Times, 08.16.25)
  • During the summit, Trump was prepared to walk out of talks with Putin after Putin issued sweeping demands over the future of Ukraine’s partially occupied regions, Axios reported Aug. 18, citing an informed source. According to the source, Putin demanded that Ukraine hand Russia full control of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the latter of which remains about 25 percent under Ukrainian control, and freeze the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. “Putin wants all of it — and at one point seemed so firm on his demand that Trump was ready to walk away,” the outlet wrote. “If Donetsk is the thing here and if there is no give, we should just not prolong this,” Trump reportedly told Putin. (Meduza, 08.18.25)
• After his Alaska summit with Putin, Trump told Fox News he felt the meeting was “a 10,” praised Putin as a leader, and said it’s now up to Zelenskyy to end the war in Ukraine, with Europeans needing to “get involved.” Trump offered few specifics, but emphasized his personal rapport with Putin and mentioned, despite confusion, that both leaders support a three-way summit with Zelenskyy. (New York Times, 08.16.25)
• Democratic lawmakers sharply criticized Trump’s warm welcome for Putin at the Alaska summit, with Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) calling it “shameful and embarrassing” and saying the U.S. should be arresting Putin. (Financial Times, 08.15.25)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

• Speaking one day after his summit with Trump, Putin said he discussed ways to end the war in Ukraine “on a fair basis” with the U.S. leader, calling the talks “frank, substantive and…very useful.” Putin said the meeting allowed both leaders to calmly reiterate their positions and brought them “closer to the necessary decisions,” though no specific deal was announced. (Moscow Times, 08.16.25).
• Trump is reportedly backing a Russian plan under which Moscow would take full control of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Donbass) and freeze the front lines in partially occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. (Moscow Times, 08.16.25).
• Trump on Aug. 16 dropped his push for a ceasefire in Ukraine in favor of pursuing a full peace accord — a major shift announced hours after his summit with Putin yielded no clear breakthrough.⁶ "It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often times do not hold up," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform after the Alaska talks. Before the summit, Trump had warned of "severe consequences" if Moscow did not accept a ceasefire. The shift away from an urgent ceasefire would seem to favor Putin. (MT/AFP, 08.16.25)

Monday, August 18, 2025

• Trump’s three-step strategy for Russia-Ukraine peace talks involves: 1) a U.S. bilateral meeting with Putin on steps toward peace, 2) a U.S. bilateral with Zelenskyy for the same, and 3) getting Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down together with the U.S. In Alaska, Putin initially issued hardline demands on all disputed regions—especially Donetsk—but reportedly softened after Trump pushed back. The U.S. did not negotiate land boundaries, but pushed for “security guarantees” for Ukraine, with Rubio and Witkoff calling this “game-changing.” Both sides are expected to consider concessions in a final deal. (Axios, 08.18.25).
• Ahead of his White House meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump reiterated that Ukraine would need to cede sovereign territory to Russia for peace—an idea Kyiv and European allies reject. (RFE/RL, 08.18.25).
• On Aug. 18, Trump brought together Ukrainian and European leaders for what was described as an “unprecedented” gathering at the White House. (RM, 08.18.25)
  • During the meeting Trump told European leaders that a ceasefire is not necessary, and that he is in favor of going into a full peace agreement. “In the six wars that I’ve settled, I haven’t had a ceasefire. We just got into negotiations,” Trump said, suggesting he would like to see something similar for the war in Ukraine. “If we can do the ceasefire, great, and if we don’t do a ceasefire, because many other points were given to us, many, many points were given to us — great points,” Trump said. (Financial Times, 08.19.25)
    • In a statement, Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov reported that Putin spoke to Trump by telephone after the U.S. president concluded his meeting with Zelenskyy and several European leaders at the White House. According to Ushakov, Putin and Trump “discussed the idea that it would be worthwhile to explore the possibility of raising the level of representatives from the Ukrainian and Russian sides — that is, those representatives who participate in the ongoing direct negotiations.” The two presidents also reportedly agreed to “maintain close contact with each other on Ukrainian and other pressing issues of the international and bilateral agenda.” The conversation was “candid and quite constructive in nature,” Ushakov said. In a post on social media, Trump described Aug. 18’s phone call as “the beginning of arrangements for a meeting” between Putin and Zelenskyy, to be followed by a “Trilat” meeting that includes Trump himself. (Meduza, 08.18.25, Financial Times, 08.19.25) So Ushakov didn’t confirm U.S. side’s claims that Putin has agreed to a bilateral with Zelenskyy.
  • Trump reportedly interrupted his meeting with Zelenskyy and European leaders at the White House on Aug. 18 to call Putin. Trump urged the Russian leader to begin making plans for a summit with Zelenskyy during the call. (Bloomberg, 08.19.25, Meduza, 08.18.25)
  • During that multilateral meeting, France’s Emmanel Macron threw his weight behind the proposed Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy summit, praising it as “the only way to fix it,” The Washington Post reported. Trump must have also enjoyed Mark Rutte of NATO’s praise for U.S. for agreeing to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine, which the former Dutch PM described as a “breakthrough,” vowing “we could end this.” (RM, 08.18.25)
  • At the same time, during the multilateral meeting, Trump also had to contend with European leaders, such as Friedrich Merz of Germany, diverging from his Aug. 15 proposition of negotiating a peace agreement without attaining a ceasefire first, which has also been Zelenskyy’s position. Trump acknowledged that divergence at the meeting, saying “All of us would obviously prefer the immediate ceasefire while we work on a lasting peace,” according to CNN. Trump also reportedly interrupted the meeting to call Putin. (RM, 08.18.25)
• Trump called Viktor Orban on Aug. 18 following talks with Zelenskyy and European leaders to discuss why the Hungarian prime minister was blocking Ukraine’s accession talks with the European Union, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 08.19.25)
• Putin held phone calls with the leaders of India, Brazil, South Africa, Belarus and four Central Asian republics over the past two days to share details of his meeting with U.S. Trump in Alaska last week. (MT/AFP, 08.18.25)
  • Indian Prime Minister Modi said “friend” Putin called to share his takeaways from the Alaska summit with Trump, in a sign of ongoing strong ties between India and Russia despite U.S. pressure over Indian energy imports. Modi reaffirmed India’s support for peace efforts in Ukraine. The call comes as Washington threatens higher tariffs on Indian goods over continued Russian oil purchases. (Bloomberg, 08.18.25).
  • Putin and South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa discussed efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine in a phone call, with Putin briefing Ramaphosa on the Alaska summit with Trump. Both leaders emphasized continued diplomatic efforts for peace, and deeper strategic partnership, while Ramaphosa called for a ceasefire. The U.S. is focused on possible Ukrainian territorial concessions, while Kyiv seeks robust security guarantees. (Bloomberg, 08.18.25).

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

• On Aug. 19, Trump announced plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy to discuss ending the ongoing conflict, though the Kremlin has yet to confirm participation. Trump expressed hope that both leaders are ready for a resolution, stating, “Putin is tired of it ... we’re going to find out.” He cautioned that if Putin isn’t cooperative, it would be a “rough situation,” and urged Zelenskyy to show flexibility. Trump, after summits with both leaders, is prepared to join them for a trilateral meeting to reach an agreement if initial talks succeed. Trump said the international community could know within a week or two whether the war in Ukraine can end. (Financial Times, 08.19.25, Financial Times, 08.19.25, Bloomberg, 08.19.25, MT/AFP, 08.19.25)
  • On Aug. 19, Lavrov avoided a question on whether Putin had agreed to meet Zelenskyy, saying any top-level meeting with Ukraine had to be “prepared extremely carefully.” Lavrov told state television Russia “is not rejecting any forms of work, neither bilateral nor trilateral” but insisted that summits required “step-by-step gradual preparation, starting with the expert level and thereafter going through all the required steps.” (Financial Times, 08.19.25, MT/AFP, 08.19.25)
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he expects Zelenskyy and Putin to meet in the next two weeks. (Financial Times, 08.19.25)
  • Switzerland would grant Putin immunity from arrest as part of a proposal to host peace talks on the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 08.19.25)
  • Putin proposed holding a meeting with Zelenskyy in Moscow, Agence France-Presse reports, citing informed sources. (Meduza, 08.19.25)
  • Talks between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, preparations for which were announced by the White House, could be held in Hungary, a senior U.S. administration official told Reuters. (Meduza, 08.19.25)
  • Zelenskyy called for a face-to-face with Putin in “neutral Europe,” naming Austria, Switzerland and Turkey as possible venues, and rejected Moscow or Budapest, reflecting ongoing distrust and the need for a secure negotiation setting. (New York Times, 08.21.25)
  • The European Commission said it welcomed “that President Putin has changed his mind on bilateral talks with President Zelenskyy” and that governments on the continent would help to prepare the summit. (Financial Times, 08.19.25)
  • U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on X that there would “now be a bilateral meeting between President Putin and President Zelenskyy” followed by a trilateral meeting including Trump. (Financial Times, 08.19.25)
• "The Russian demand that Ukraine give up parts of the Donbas would be, just to illustrate the scale, comparable to asking the United States to give up Florida," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters after the White House meeting. (Wall Street Journal, 08.19.25)
• Both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions in order to reach a peace agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News after a White House meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders. “Each side is going to have to make some concessions. And obviously, land or where you draw those lines — where the war stops — is going to be part of that conversation,” Rubio said. “In essence, one side is not going to get 100 percent here,” he added, calling the process “not easy” and perhaps “not even fair,” but the only way to end the war. (Meduza, 08.19.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron sharply escalated his rhetoric on Russia, calling Putin a “predator and an ogre at our doorstep” in a recent TV interview. Macron, who once sought closer ties with Moscow, now warns European leaders not to be naïve about the Kremlin’s ambitions and views the defense of Ukraine as crucial to Europe’s security. He also expressed deep skepticism about Putin’s willingness to reach a genuine peace deal, contrasting what he described as his own hard line with Trump’s more conciliatory approach. (New York Times, 08.19.25) 

Thursday, August 21, 2025

• Putin is demanding that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country, three sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking told Reuters. In the most detailed Russian-based reporting to date on Putin's offer at the summit, Reuters was able to outline the contours of what the Kremlin would like to see in a possible peace deal to end a war that has killed and injured hundreds of thousands of people. In essence, the Russian sources said, Putin has compromised on territorial demands he laid out in June 2024, which required Kyiv to cede the entirety of the four provinces Moscow claims as part of Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine - which make up the Donbas - plus Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south. In his new proposal, the Russian president has stuck to his demand that Ukraine completely withdraw from the parts of the Donbas it still controls, according to the three sources. In return, though, Moscow would halt the current front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, they added. Moscow is also willing to hand over the small parts of the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine it controls as part of a possible deal, the sources said. Putin is sticking, too, to his previous demands that Ukraine give up its NATO ambitions and for a legally binding pledge from the U.S.-led military alliance that it will not expand further eastwards, as well as for limits on the Ukrainian army and an agreement that no Western troops will be deployed on the ground in Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force, the sources said. (Reuters, 08.21.25) Insightful reporting by Reuters’ Guy Faulconbridge on Putin's supposed consent to modify some of his demands vis-a-vis Ukraine: Russia would return parts of Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions (mum on 1% of Mykolaiv region, which USG assesses to be in Russian control), while freezing fighting in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions if Ukraine retreats from Donbass, stays away from NATO, accepts limits on its military (note that de-Nazification is not mentioned).
• Lavrov cast doubt on whether Putin would attend a leader-level summit with Zelenskyy, warning any meeting would require “the most careful preparation” to ensure summits don’t worsen the situation—despite pressure from Trump and European leaders for direct talks. He said the Kremlin only agreed to raise the level of representation in Turkey-based talks and insisted on lengthy advance preparation for any direct leaders’ summit, Lavrov said any meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is possible only if all key issues have been “well worked out” in advance by experts and ministers, and again cast doubt on Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s president. (Wall Street Journal, 08.21.25, Financial Times, 08.21.25, Korrespondent.net, 08.21.25)
• U.S. and European officials say there has been confusion over Putin’s willingness to halt military actions in southern Ukraine, with the Kremlin later clarifying that any halt would be conditional on significant Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbass, not an outright withdrawal. (Washington Post, 08.21.25)
• Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not cross certain red lines regarding any possible “territory swap” with Russia, emphasizing that Ukraine legally rejects recognizing the occupation of any territory. Zelenskyy said Aug. 21 that he wants more clarity on potential Western security guarantees before agreeing to sit down for a face-to-face meeting with Putin. (MT/AFP, 08.21.25, RBC.ua, 08.21.25)
• A senior adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office said freezing the conflict along current front lines is one possible scenario for ending the war, but stressed there will be no legal recognition or transfer of Ukrainian territory to Russia. Mykhailo Podolyak emphasized such a freeze would only mean a de facto situation, with territories remaining de jure Ukrainian. He ruled out any formal handover, insisting that concessions only “encourage the aggressor.” Podolyak also said any future territorial decisions would require the will of the Ukrainian people. (RBC.ua, 08.21.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron voiced skepticism about Putin’s sincerity for peace, stating after his White House meeting with Trump: “When I look at the situation and the facts, I don't see President Putin very willing to get peace now.” (Wall Street Journal, 08.21.25).

Friday, August 22, 2025

• Trump offered a new—and familiar—deadline for the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to move forward with a peace process or face possible U.S. retaliation, saying that within “two weeks” he’ll make his determination. “I think I’ll know the attitude of Russian, and frankly Ukraine,” Trump said at the White House Aug. 22, “and then we’ll make a decision about what we’re going to do.” (Wall Street Journal, 08.22.25)
• Putin wants Ukraine to give up the more than 2,500 square miles of territory it still controls in the part of eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas. In return, analysts believe, Russia might be prepared to return 660 square miles it holds in parts of Ukraine that Mr. Putin has not claimed as part of Russia and that are less core to the Kremlin's narrative about the war. (New York Times, 08.22.25)⁷
• On Aug. 22, Lavrov reiterated that no meeting is planned between Putin and Zelenskyy, casting new doubt on Trump’s push for a summit to end the war. Trump suggested, after Anchorage, several points which we share and on some of them, we agreed to be…to show some flexibility,” he said, referring to the Aug. 15 meeting with Putin in Alaska. (NBC, 08.22.25)
• On Aug. 18, Trump boasted about quickly brokering peace to end the bloody Ukraine conflict. By Aug. 21, he was saying that Kyiv had no chance of winning the war without new attacks on Russia. His turnaround underscored the fading optimism about Trump's latest push to end the war. Trump's hopes for a summit with Putin and Zelenskyy to hammer out a peace agreement haven't materialized. Nor has his backup plan for Putin and Zelenskyy to meet by themselves to discuss ending the 3½-year-long war. U.S. and European officials are still negotiating the makeup of a peacekeeping force that would aim to deter future Russian attacks against Ukraine if a peace deal was reached. Even that idea was quickly rebuffed by the Kremlin and raised questions about Trump's willingness to commit to a major role for the U.S. military. (Wall Street Journal, 08.22.25)
  • The failure to reach a diplomatic breakthrough stems in part from sharp differences in negotiating style between Putin and Trump. The U.S. president, former aides said, has an improvisational approach that is heavily dependent on personal relationships. Putin is methodical in his preparation and unsentimental, said former U.S. officials who have closely observed the Russian leader. (Wall Street Journal, 08.22.25)
  • Thomas Graham, a former senior National Security Council official on Russia issues, said: "It's quite clear that the president did not understand the complexity of the issues that he faces and has tended to read favorably some of the things that Putin may have said." (Wall Street Journal, 08.22.25)
  • Fiona Hill, who served as a top Russia expert on the National Security Council during Trump's first term, said: "The Russians use terms in a certain context, and Trump misses that. Maybe Putin was deliberately letting him believe he was going along." (Wall Street Journal, 08.22.25)
• Lavrov said Aug. 22 that there are no current plans for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, despite Trump’s recent suggestion that such talks were imminent. “President Putin said clearly that he is ready to meet, provided this meeting is really going to have an agenda, a presidential agenda,” Lavrov told NBC’s Meet the Press. “There is no meeting planned.” (MT/AFP, 08.22.25)
• Zelenskyy said he’s not in contact with the Russian side on potential peace talks, even as his dialog with the U.S. continues. Speaking at a news conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Kyiv on Aug. 22, Zelenskyy said he doesn’t want to set conditions for potential peace talks with Putin as he could use them as an excuse to continue the war. (Bloomberg, 08.22.25)
• A new poll by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Razumkov Center finds that 73% of Ukrainians believe in victory over Russia—a figure that, while down 4 percentage points from last year, still represents an overwhelming majority. The top signs of victory, according to respondents, are the return of all prisoners and abductees (37%), preservation of Ukrainian statehood (31%) and cessation of missile attacks (30%). Fewer consider territorial liberation or confiscation of Russian assets as the main indicators of success. (Korrespondent.net, 08.22.25)  

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia has dramatically increased sabotage operations throughout Europe, a new report has found, with the number of attacks targeting critical infrastructure nearly quadrupling since 2023. The findings, by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, dovetail with a growing number of press reports, indictments, and intelligence warnings alleging Moscow has made covert sabotage and surveillance operations a major priority, aimed at destabilizing European governments. (RFE/RL, 08.20.25)
• Poland’s defense minister accused Russia of staging a provocation after a military drone crashed and exploded in the eastern part of the country on Aug. 20. Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told reporters that an object that fell in a corn field in the village of Osiny, which is some 70 miles from the border with Ukraine, was a Russian decoy drone. It flew into the nation’s airspace undetected at a low altitude and contained only a small amount of explosives, according to the Polish military. (Bloomberg, 08.20.25)
• The Netherlands will send two Patriot air defense systems to Poland as European allies step up efforts to defend NATO territory. (Bloomberg, 08.20.25)
• U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard signed a directive in late July barring the sharing of any intelligence related to Russian–Ukrainian peace negotiations with other members of the Five Eyes alliance, CBS News reported, citing U.S. intelligence sources. (Meduza, 08.22.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will host a welcome banquet for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders during the SCO summit in Tianjin, Aug. 31–Sept. 1. Xi will preside over the 25th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State and an expanded SCO Plus session, and is scheduled to deliver a key address. Putin and other leaders of SCO member states are expected to attend. (TASS, 08.21.25)
  • More than 20 foreign leaders are set to attend the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a bloc of countries led by Russia and China, Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin told reporters Aug. 22 during a briefing in Beijing. Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are among those expected at the meeting in the northeastern port city of Tianjin Aug. 31-Sept. 1. (Bloomberg, 08.22.25)
• Russia’s Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alikhanov said Aug. 19 that sanctions and market saturation are beginning to slow the surge in trade with China, tempering years of rapid growth since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trade between the two countries boomed after scores of Western companies left Russia in 2022, with turnover hitting a record $245 billion last year — making Russia China’s seventh-largest trading partner. But bilateral trade dropped 8.1% between January and July compared to the same period in 2024, totaling $125.8 billion. (MT/AFP, 08.20.25)
• Trump said he will hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country’s Russian oil imports, citing progress in his summit with Putin on ending the war in Ukraine. Trump, who had previously threatened steep tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, said he may revisit the tariff issue in a few weeks but sees no need for action now. He also extended a U.S.-China trade truce for another 90 days to avoid market disruption. (Bloomberg, 08.16.25)

Missile defense:

• The U.K. is bolstering its air defense capabilities with a new contract for missile systems, as European military planners work to map out a post-peace plan for Ukraine that could see its skies protected by western allies. In a deal worth £118 million ($159 million), the British government will buy six new Land Ceptor systems from multinational European arms maker MBDA over three years, the Ministry of Defense said. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)

Nuclear arms:

• Putin told young Russian nuclear scientists that Russia’s nuclear veterans, “with their talent and titanic will, … created a reliable nuclear shield for our country and were the first in the world to ensure that the peaceful atom worked for the benefit of the nation and all humanity.” “Achieving global nuclear parity became a true victory for our entire people,” he said. “In general, such programs are of national and, without exaggeration, global significance. Colossal in scale, they are designed to strengthen the country’s defense capability and sovereignty...,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 08.22.25)
• Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev said Russia’s nuclear “shield” must be improved in the coming years amid what he called “colossal threats” to the country’s existence. Likhachev emphasized that Russia’s nuclear deterrent is the guarantor of its sovereignty and said Rosatom consistently fulfills its defense orders for nuclear weapons. "Now, in the current moment of geopolitics, there are colossal threats to the existence of our country. Therefore, the nuclear shield, which is also a sword, is a guarantee of our sovereignty... Today we understand that the nuclear shield must only improve in the coming years," Likhachev told journalists. (RIA Novosti, 08.21.25).

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Syria will issue new banknotes, removing two zeros from its currency in an attempt to restore public confidence in the severely devalued pound, according to seven sources familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by Reuters. Two of the bankers and another Syrian source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Syria had agreed with Russian state-owned money printing firm Goznak to produce the new notes. (Reuters, 08.22.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled Aug. 17 that new U.S. energy sanctions on Russia are unlikely in the near term, despite earlier threats from Trump to penalize buyers of Russian oil and gas. Rubio said imposing additional sanctions now could stall Ukraine peace talks, but left open the option if diplomacy fails. Trump echoed that new measures are off the table for now after his meeting with Putin. Senator Graham urged broader efforts to cut Moscow’s fossil fuel revenue. Sanctions on India for Russian oil take effect Aug. 27. (Axios, 08.18.25)
• India is under increasing pressure from the Trump administration over its continued purchases of Russian oil, with the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports as a punitive measure. While India has restored oil procurement from Moscow after a brief July dip, officials in New Delhi insist they won’t back down, instead strengthening ties with Russia and China as trade talks with the U.S. stall. The U.S. stance has drawn criticism for singling out India while not mentioning China or Europe’s Russian energy purchases. The U.S. position does not mention other countries that buy Russian oil, most notably China, the largest customer. Nor does it address Europe’s procurement of Russia’s pipeline gas, or the U.S.’s own purchase of fertilizers and uranium from Russia. To India, this inconsistency in the Trump administration’s stance indicates that the real issue is not the country’s crude oil procurement strategy, but fallout from stalled trade talks and a cooling of personal ties between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the U.S. president. India has complained of double standards in Washington, which continues to buy Russian uranium hexafluoride, and in the EU, which remains a key buyer of Russian liquefied natural gas. (Wall Street Journal, 08.08.25, Financial Times, 08.22.25)
  • The dramatic increase in India’s purchases of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine is “opportunistic and deeply corrosive” of a global effort to isolate the Kremlin and curb Putin’s war machine, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Financial Times. Navarro said he expects punitive tariffs of 50% on imports from the South Asian nation to kick in as planned next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed some of the “richest families in India” benefited from the purchase of Russian crude oil, while reiterating plans to boost tariffs on the South Asian nation. (Bloomberg, 08.18.25, Bloomberg, 08.21.25, Bloomberg, 08.19.25)
  • Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said Washington had previously encouraged India to buy Russian oil to stabilize energy markets, and is now taking a contradictory stance by pressuring New Delhi with higher tariffs. Jaishankar pointed out India's oil imports from the U.S. are also growing, and said the U.S. logic is “perplexing.” (TASS, 08.21.25)
  • Russia expects India to continue buying its oil and India pledged to keep buying Russian oil, a step that would preserve a vital market for Moscow’s barrels. Purchases will continue “depending on the financial benefit,” Vinay Kumar, India’s ambassador in Moscow, said in an interview with Russia’s Izvestia newspaper. “India buys what is best for itself,” he added. India’s state-run refiners have returned to buying Russian oil after a brief pause. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25, Bloomberg, 08.20.25, Bloomberg, 08.20.25, Bloomberg, 08.20.25)
• Russia’s oil exports to China fell by 7.6% year-on-year to 57.71 million tons in January–July 2025, according to Chinese customs data. The value of these supplies dropped even more sharply, down 21.3% to $29.48 billion. Despite the decrease, Russia remains China’s top crude supplier. In July alone, Russian oil deliveries to China rose 4.2% from June, while the value increased by 9.2% to $4.31 billion. (TASS, 08.20.25)
  • A Financial Times investigation reveals networks of brokers and shipowners from Iran to Panama and Switzerland have enabled China to import sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela through opaque companies, ship-to-ship transfers and “dark fleet” tankers. (Financial Times, 08.22.25)
• Hungary and Slovakia are urging the European Commission to press Ukraine to stop striking Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline after a drone and missile attack in the Bryansk region halted deliveries early Aug. 22, marking the third such disruption in less than two weeks. (MT/AFP, 08.22.25)
• Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled at least four major Russian oil refineries, forcing the shutdown of 44.3 million tons of annual capacity—about 13% of Russia’s total (328 million tons/year). Stopped plants include the Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, Volgograd (Lukoil’s largest in the south) and Samara Rosneft refineries, plus partial losses at Ryazan. Repairs are delayed by sanctions on western equipment, compounding Russia’s recent gasoline shortages. The drone campaign has driven domestic wholesale petrol prices to new records, with fuel increasingly scarce in some regions. (Moscow Times, 08.19.25)
  • Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have driven wholesale petrol prices in Russia to record highs, leading Moscow to ban all petrol exports as of Aug. 14 to protect domestic supply. Prices for Russia’s common petrol grade A95 jumped 55% since the start of 2025, hitting regions far from Moscow especially hard. (Financial Times, 08.22.25)
• A Ukrainian man, Serhii K., has been arrested in Italy on suspicion of helping to coordinate the 2022 sabotage of Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines, German prosecutors announced. The arrest, carried out under a European warrant, is the first in connection with the attacks, which damaged major pipelines linking Russia to Germany. Serhii K. allegedly aided a group that used a chartered yacht to plant explosives. Germany is seeking his extradition. Ukraine has denied involvement, but German investigators claim evidence points to a Ukrainian-led operation. (Financial Times, 08.22.25)

Climate change:

• An ongoing drought in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region has caused around 46 billion rubles ($572 million) in agricultural losses so far this summer, the head of a local agribusiness lobby said Aug. 20. “ (MT/AFP, 08.20.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• U.S. oilfield services giant Weatherford International is expanding its Russian business despite new sanctions, increasing local revenues and job postings even as rivals like Baker Hughes and Halliburton have exited the country. The company’s Russian unit accounted for 7% of global revenue in early 2025. Legal and energy experts warn U.S. firms may be exploiting loopholes, continuing to provide critical equipment for Russia’s oil sector and undermining Western efforts to cut off a key source of funding for Moscow’s war against Ukraine. (Financial Times, 08.21.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin said Aug. 22 there was "light at the end of the tunnel" in Russia-U.S. relations. The Russian president said he was sure that Trump's leadership qualities would help in restoring relations from recent lows. "The next steps now depend on the leadership of the United States, but I am confident that the leadership qualities of the current president, President Trump, are a good guarantee that relations will be restored.” Putin announced Aug. 22 that Russia is discussing joint projects with the United States in the Arctic region and in Alaska. (Reuters, 08.22.25)
  • The Russian president sent his American counterpart a photograph of the two of them from their face-to-face meeting. "I was just sent a picture from somebody that wants to be there very badly," Trump said. "He's been very respectful of me and of our country, but not so respectful of others." (New York Times, 08.22.25, ABC, 08.22.25)
• Trump revoked the security clearances of 37 current and former officials—many involved in Russia or election-related intelligence—in his latest move to challenge the intelligence community and refocus public attention on the 2016 election. The action, directed by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, also resulted in some officials losing their jobs. Officials stripped of clearance include nonpartisan intelligence professionals, with some only remotely connected to the original Russia assessments or critical of the Trump administration. (New York Times, 08.20.25).
  • Trump has purged one of the CIA’s most senior Russia analysts, revoking her security clearance along with those of 36 other current and former officials, in a sharp escalation of his administration’s campaign against intelligence professionals critical of his policies—especially those involved in reporting on Russian election interference. (The Economist, 08.21.25).
  • In a public letter published in The Atlantic, CIA Director William Burns expressed support and gratitude to the "discarded" public servants recently fired or forced out of government in a wave of retribution and political purges. (The Atlantic, 08.20.25)
• Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, has delivered Russia’s Order of Courage to CIA Deputy Director Juliane Gallina. CNN reported the news, citing a senior White House official. The medal was awarded posthumously to Gallina’s son, Michael Gloss, who died fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine last year. Putin gave it to Witkoff during his visit to Moscow on Aug. 6. (Meduza, 08.21.25)
• American filmmaker Woody Allen will headline the Moscow Mayor’s Office film festival that opens this weekend, organizers said. (MT/AFP, 08.22.25)
• American R&B singer B. Howard will represent the U.S. at Russia’s answer to Eurovision when the competition kicks off in Moscow later next month, organizers announced on Aug. 21. (MT/AFP, 08.21.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s budget deficit hit $61 billion by August 2025, surpassing annual targets. As the government raises defense spending and cuts health and education budgets, Russian officials admit urgent fiscal consolidation is necessary. Defense costs now account for over 40% of federal spending, according to ISW. (ISW, 08.20.25)
• Russian authorities will be forced to raise taxes, Reuters reported on Aug. 20, citing an anonymous government source. “Otherwise, we simply won’t be able to make ends meet, even with a reduction in defense spending. Oil and gas revenues are falling and the economy cannot fully compensate for this,” the source said, describing tax increases as “unavoidable.” The source said the draft budget, due in September, will set aside just over eight percent of GDP for defense and security, a figure they described as a slight underestimation. Military spending will not be reduced in 2026, they added, and cuts in 2027 would only be possible if the fighting ends. (Meduza, 08.21.25)⁸
• Russian companies are widening their campaign to find young African women to help fill a labor shortage, heightening concern many are being deployed in Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 08.22.25)
• Russia’s Finance Ministry has drafted legislation that would set the personal income tax rate for “foreign agents” at 30 percent. (Meduza, 08.20.25)
• On Aug. 22, Russia’s Justice Ministry expanded its list of “foreign agents,” targeting four individuals and two media projects. Among those freshly blacklisted is political analyst Sergey Markov. Early reports suggest that the designation may be connected to Markov’s supportive comments about Azerbaijan. (Meduza, 08.22.25)
• Russian prosecutors fined a top official at the Yeltsin Center, the library and cultural center dedicated to the late Russian president, after she re-posted an anti-war message on social media. A district court in the central Russian city of Yekaterinburg ordered Lyudmila Telen, the center's first deputy director, to pay a fine of 45,000 rubles ($560). (RFE/RL, 08.21.25)
• A June 2025 Levada Center poll found that 71% of Russians fully agree it is better to be a citizen of Russia than any other country, with another 17% mostly agreeing—higher than past years. Meanwhile, 76% believe Russia is better than most countries, up from 36% in 1996 and reaching a new high. Both indicators have steadily increased, reflecting a rise in national pride over the past decade. (Levada Center, 08.21.25).

Defense and aerospace:

• In the second quarter of 2025, only 37,900 people in Russia signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense—a 2.5-fold decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when 92,800 joined. Federal data show recruitment has fallen to a two-year low, despite regional payment incentives. The first six months of 2025 saw 127,500 contract signings, far below official claims of 210,000 by Dmitry Medvedev. Regions like Irkutsk report difficulties meeting recruitment targets because of funding shortfalls for enlistment bonuses. (Istories, 08.18.25)
• Russian budget constraints are forcing Moscow to tap regional budgets and alternative means to fund enlistment bonuses, as the rate of contract recruitment fell to a two-year low. While Medvedev claims 210,000 recruits this year, budget data suggests a far lower number. These financial challenges may degrade Russia’s ability to sustain long-term force generation—especially if Western sanctions on oil revenues increase (ISW, 08.18.25).
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• At least eleven people died and more than 100 were injured in a blast that destroyed a gunpowder factory in the central Russian region of Ryazan. The explosion caused a blaze that tore through the facility at the Elastic plant on Aug. 15, RIA Novosti reported, citing local authorities. The Emergency Ministry deployed about 350 rescuers to the site, it said on Telegram. Eleven of the over 100 victims have been confirmed dead, the ministry in an update on Saturday. Emergency services continue to clear the site and are removing rubble. Russia’s Investigative Committee said it has opened a criminal case into the incident to determine whether industrial safety requirements were violated. Local media reported that the building was destroyed in the explosion. (Bloomberg, 08.16.25)
• Crime in Russia has hit its highest level in 12 years, the exiled news outlet Vyorstka reported, citing Prosecutor General’s Office data. According to the Prosecutor General’s Office, Russia registered 27,124 crimes in the first half of 2025 — 3,747 more than in the same period a year earlier and the highest figure since 2013. The figures also mark the first time that the tally exceeded 23,377 in a six-month span since 2014. The agency did not disclose the types of crimes. The figures come as more than 130,000 veterans of the war in Ukraine — including thousands of former prison inmates — return home. (MT/AFP, 08.20.25)
• Reports say the Kremlin may move Alexander Bastrykin, long-serving Chairman of the Russian Investigative Committee, to the Supreme Court as part of efforts to bring in a younger elite. This continues Putin’s policy of promoting loyal war supporters to leadership roles while shifting elder allies elsewhere. (ISW, 08.20.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed Russian leader Putin as a “friend” while his government moved to bolster relations with China, another sign the South Asian nation is tilting away from the U.S. in the face of Trump’s tariff threats. Modi held a phone call with Putin following the Russian president’s summit with Trump in Alaska. During the conversation, the two discussed issues of bilateral cooperation and agreed to remain in close touch, according to an official statement from New Delhi. “India has consistently called for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict and supports all efforts in this regard,” Modi said in a post on X on Aug. 18, adding that he looks forward to “continued exchanges” with Putin in the coming days. (Bloomberg, 08.18.25)
• India and Russia are looking to increase their annual trade by about 50% over the next five years to reach $100 billion, seeking to reduce tariffs as both countries see mounting tensions with the U.S., an Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said Aug. 20 during a visit to Moscow. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25) Also see the section on Energy.
• A French researcher who is serving a three-year prison sentence in Russia is now under investigation for possible spying, according to court documents seen by AFP on Aug. 20. Filings show that Laurent Vinatier is scheduled to appear in court on Aug. 25 as part of an espionage case, charges that carry a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. (MT/AFP, 08.21.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian authorities have dismantled five new schemes used to help men evade military mobilization, detaining the organizers in central, southern, and western regions. The schemes involved document forgery, selling fake medical certificates, university admissions fraud for draft deferral, and smuggling men abroad. Those arrested face up to nine years in prison and confiscation of property. Among the detained were a university official facilitating deferrals, a repeat offender selling fake disability documents, and an individual leaking law enforcement geolocations on Telegram. (Korrespondent.net, 08.21.25)
• An investigation by Slidstva.Info revealed that the family of MP Oleksiy Kuznetsov, currently in pre-trial detention for alleged embezzlement, has renovated a luxury 350-square-meter house in Kyiv worth over $400,000. Kuznetsov’s wife purchased the property for nearly 2.8 million hryvnias in 2021 and borrowed funds close to the purchase date. Meanwhile, since 2019, Kuznetsov has received 1.3 million hryvnias in state compensation for rent. The NABU suspects him of embezzling funds intended for military equipment purchases. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.22.25)
• A July–August 2025 survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that among Ukrainians doubtful Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member in 10 years, the main reason cited is corruption (25%). Other common reasons include government inefficiency or lack of trust in authorities (15%), doubts about EU accession/support (14%), belief that reconstruction/reform will take longer than a decade (13%), ongoing war and devastation (10%), skepticism about positive change (9%), economic problems (8%), and widespread destruction from the war (8%). (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.21.25)
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Friday, Aug. 22, unveiled more evidence alleging a top official from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) of harboring Russian ties. The government used the case as a basis to strip anti-corruption agencies of their independence in July, triggering nationwide protests, with the bill subsequently reversed amid public outcry. The SBU, in its Friday press release, unveiled more evidence accusing the father of one of the top NABU officials of conducting business with Russia and maintaining contact with a pro-Kremlin lawmaker accused of treason. (Kyiv Post, 08.22.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed his peace plan for Ukraine with Trump, suggesting the first step should be an “air truce” and mutual ceasefire along the front, halting all missile and drone strikes. (BelTA, 08.22.25).
• Armenia’s premier welcomed Iran’s response to a U.S.-brokered peace declaration with Azerbaijan, pledging to broaden economic ties with the Persian Gulf nation. During a visit to Yerevan made by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he appreciated Iran’s “objective assessments” and support for his nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. (Bloomberg, 08.19.25)
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has ordered the country’s military to prepare for war, citing new security threats and escalating tensions with Russia. (Korrespondent.net, 08.22.25).
• Dozens of migrants from Tajikistan say they have been held by Russian authorities at Moscow's Zhukovsky Airport for over a week. (RFE/RL, 08.22.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. For a breakdown of the key issues that separate Russia and Ukraine, see this New York Times article of Aug. 21, 2025.
2. In fact, every week since at least December 2024, Russian troops have advanced further and hold more Ukrainian territory than they did the previous week, according to RM’s analysis of ISW data.
3. For RM’s estimates of how many Russian missiles and drones have been launched and their rates of interception since at least May 2023, see the charts in RM’s “The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Aug. 13, 2025.”
4. White House officials have said Putin was open to “Article 5-style” security guarantees for Kyiv, a reference to NATO’s collective defense commitment. The Kremlin hasn’t confirmed publicly that Putin made such a commitment at his summit with Trump in Alaska last week. (Bloomberg, 08.21.25)
5. Read Meduza’s 08.20.25 collection of consecutive statements by U.S. and Russian officials to be informed of “the differences between Lavrov’s statements and earlier public comments by leaders in the United States and Ukraine” that show that “Moscow has not made the concessions in Ukraine talks claimed by the Trump administration.”
6. Trump dislikes the word “ceasefire” for Ukraine, so European leaders have started using “truce” and other terms like “stop the killing” in discussions and diplomacy. (New York Times, 08.19.25).
7. For a breakdown of the key issues that separate Russia and Ukraine, see The New York Times.
8. SWP’s Janis Kluge estimates “Russian military spending was almost 50% (!) of total budget revenues in the first half of 2025.”

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by The White House.