Russia in Review, July 25-Aug. 1, 2025

5 Things to Know

  1. Just a day after Donald Trump gave Vladimir Putin a new, Aug. 8 deadline to end hostilities or face secondary sanctions over the Ukraine war, the U.S. leader expressed uncertainty about whether such measures would be effective, suggesting that tariffs "may or may not affect" Russia, according to The New York Times. Trump’s wavering stance has raised questions about the true extent of U.S. leverage over Russia and his willingness to use it, with little sign it will sway Putin, NYT reported. Speaking on Aug. 1, Putin claimed Russia hoped for more peace talks with Ukraine but signaled no shift in his stance on the issue.1 Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov merely "took note" of Trump’s latest threats, while his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has earlier “mocked Trump’s frequently changing ultimatums and deadlines,” according to this newspaper. Speaking after Trump issued his original, 50-day ultimatum for Moscow on July 14 to come to a peace deal or face the secondary tariffs,2 Lavrov said: “It used to be 24 hours. It used to be 100 days. We have been through all of this, and we really want to understand what motivates the president of the United States.” RM offered the following analysis of Lavrov’s remarks in the July 18, 2025, issue of this digest: “Lavrov appears to be openly criticizing Trump. Lavrov is usually very professional, so this move seems clearly deliberate and likely coordinated with Vladimir Putin. This provides insight into how Putin assesses Trump—and also suggests that Lavrov is willing to risk angering Trump, possibly to Russia’s detriment.”*
  2. Trump said on Aug. 1 that he has ordered nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” after former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reminded the United States that Russia has the Dead Hand nuclear retaliation system, according to The Washington Post. Trump wrote on his Truth Social account: “Based on the highly provocative statements of… Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.” Thus, after years of seeing his nuclear threats largely ignored by the U.S. leadership in their public remarks on Russia, the former Russian president has finally managed to elicit a counterthreat from the sitting U.S. president. Both the threat and the counter-threat appear to be symbolic. The Dead Hand (Russian code: Perimetr), if functioning, would not get activated until after a nuclear strike on Russia, while the U.S. SSBNs can be presumed to be rotating in their patrols “in the appropriate regions” anyhow.
  3. Senate Republicans have introduced the PEACE Act to let European allies finance U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine by replenishing U.S. stockpiles, in line with Trump’s push for allies to share more costs, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Peace Act proposed by Sens. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.) and Jim Risch (R., Idaho) provides the most detailed outline yet of how Trump could carry out his new plan to arm Kyiv with European funds, according to this newspaper. The PEACE Act aligns with Trump’s view that Europeans should be paying more for arming Ukraine, as it is in their vital interests and they can afford doing so. While the EU’s GDP is smaller than that of the U.S. in MER, the gap is insignificant when measured in PPP.
  4. Russia gained 105 square miles of Ukrainian territory (the size of one Nantucket island) over the past week (July 22–29, 2025)—just over three times the rate of the previous week’s (July 15–22, 2025) gain of 29 square miles, according to the July 30, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week alone, Russians have reportedly claimed to have entered Pokrovsk and established control over Chasiv Yar in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukraine’s military has not so far confirmed the loss of Chasiv Yar, but the frontline map maintained by Ukraine’s OSINT group DeepState shows most of Chasiv Yar controlled by Russian forces as of July 31, 2025. The DeepState map also shows Pokrovsk in full control of Ukrainian forces as of that date, but Russian forces advancing on it from the north. Pokrovsk’s importance lies in that it is a road and rail hub. It lies on a key highway which has been used by the Ukrainian military to supply other eastern outposts, including Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka, according to Reuters. As for Chasiv Yar, Russian armed forces’ capture of this town, if confirmed, would advance Moscow's grinding effort to encircle the "fortress city" of Kostiantynivka as these forces seek to establish full control over the Donetsk region per Putin’s directives, according to this news agency.
  5. Ukraine is in the midst of its most ambitious defensive construction effort to date, erecting obstacles to thwart Russian assaults, but the efforts, which are well into their second year, have been “beset by delays, attacks and arrests for alleged corruption,” according to Wall Street Journal.The effort “now faces being overrun by the enemy it is trying to repel,” WSJ warns. While there seemed to have been a consensus among the Western press’ military sources that the proliferation of drones has become a game changer in this war, making traditional advances of infantry backed by armor vehicles difficult, this WSJ article seems to suggest a rather urgent need for “hundreds of miles” of fortifications of the kind and scale seen back in WWI.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on July 30 that radiation levels at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remain normal, with no increase in background radiation detected. IAEA representatives stationed at the facility confirmed its stability and emphasized there are no safety concerns regarding radiation levels. (Korrespondent.net, 07.30.25)
  • Russia’s Zelenogorsk Electrochemical Plant has finished modernizing its main production lines, completing the replacement of older centrifuges with 9+ generation models—a process started in 2019. (IPFM Blog, 07.15.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Logistics data show Russia increasingly relies on North Korea for ammunition—over half of “explosive material” shipments in 2024 came via ports used by North Korea. China’s exports of defense-related goods to Russia have also surged, providing crucial non-lethal supplies for Moscow’s defense industry. (Financial Times, 07.28.25)
  • Russia’s first direct flight from Moscow to Pyongyang, North Korea, took off July 27 evening. (Bloomberg, 07.27.25)
  • North Korea said relations between its leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump are “not bad” but any attempt to resume dialogue between the two countries should start with recognizing the North as a nuclear power. (Bloomberg, 07.28.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

  • Trump told reporters in Washington that Ukrainian refugees will likely be allowed to remain in the United States until Russia’s invasion ends, Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reports. According to Forbes, as of June 2025, more than 236,000 sponsorship applications had been approved and over 187,000 Ukrainians had arrived. (Meduza, 07.30.25)
  • Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said over 10,000 instances of Russian forces using chemical munitions since February 2022, including ampoules of chloropicrin and riot control agents delivered by drones. (ISW, 07.30.25)
  • For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

  • Russia gained 105 square miles of Ukrainian territory (the size of one Nantucket island) over the past week (July 22–29, 2025)—just over three times the rate of the previous week’s (July 15–22, 2025) gain of 29 square miles, according to the July 30, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • “In response to numerous successful Ukrainian one way attack uncrewed aerial system (OWA UAS) strikes, Russia has commenced a program to protect vulnerable aircraft at a number of airfields close to the Russia-Ukraine border. (UK MOD X Account, 07.29.25)

Friday, July 25, 2025

  • Russian forces have likely seized Novoekonomichne, northeast of Pokrovsk, and are conducting limited sabotage and reconnaissance missions into Pokrovsk as part of ongoing efforts to envelop the town. Russian advances are also reported near Nykanorivka, Boikivka, Zatyshok, Sukhyi Yar, Novoukrainka and Zvirove. While Russian units have temporarily entered Pokrovsk, ISW has not confirmed enduring positions. Ukrainian forces continue localized counterattacks and have retaken positions west of Hrodivka. Separately, Russian troops have recently advanced into and around Kupyansk. (ISW, 07.25.25) Russia has recently intensified its offensive on Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, control over which is important for both sides. It is important because Pokrovsk is a road and rail hub that lies on a key highway which has been used by the Ukrainian military to supply other embattled eastern outposts, such as Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka, according to Reuters.

Saturday, July 26, 2025

  • On July 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Vovchanskі Khutory, Yablunivka and Horikhove. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • Russia on July 26 said it had captured two villages in Ukraine: Maliyevka and Zelenyi Hai in the Donetsk region. Ukraine did not immediately comment directly on claims by the Russian Defense Ministry that its forces had on July 26 captured Zeleniy Hai. (RFE/RL, 07.27.25, MT/AFP, 07.26.25) Ukraine’s OSINT group Deep State reported that Russians advanced in Zelenyi Hai on July 27 rather than captured it.
  • Several people died overnight on July 25-26 in Russia's latest large-scale air attack on Ukraine, this time focused on the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. The Ukrainian Air Force reported launches of 12 Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 7 guided missiles and 208 Shahed-type and decoy drones from multiple locations. Ukrainian defenses downed 183 drones and 17 missiles, but some still struck nine locations in Ukraine. (ISW, 07.26.25, RFE/RL, 07.26.25, RFE/RL, 07.26.25)

Sunday, July 27, 2025

  • On July 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Zelenyi Hai, near Piddubne, Andriivka-Klevtseve and Popiv Yar. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • Ukrainian officials said the military shot down 78 of the 83 Russian attack drones or decoys fired overnight and into the morning, including several whose fragments damaged buildings in the Poltava region. (RFE/RL, 07.27.25)

Monday, July 28, 2025

  • On July 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Poltavka and in Voskresenka. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • Early July 28, Ukraine’s Air Defense said in a post on Telegram that it shot down and jammed 309 out of the 324 drones, as well as two out of seven missiles launched by Russia overnight. (Bloomberg, 07.28.25)

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

  • On July 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Razine, Temyrivka, Maliivka, Oleksandohrad and Yablunivka. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • On July 28-29, Russian strikes on Ukraine killed at least 28 people. In Kamyanske, a hospital was hit, killing four—including a pregnant woman. A correctional facility in Zaporizhzhia was struck, killing 16 prisoners and injuring nearly 100; the U.N. states this may violate international humanitarian law. In Kharkiv Oblast, five civilians were killed while waiting for aid. On July 29, a Russian missile struck a Ukrainian military training facility, reportedly near Chernihiv, killing three soldiers and wounding 18. Ukrainian authorities are investigating the training site attack, amid repeated strikes on military facilities this year. (RFE/RL, 07.29.25, ISW, 07.29.25, Meduza, 07.30.25, New York Times, 07.30.25, Washington Post, 07.30.25)
  • Ukrainian forces are intensifying long-range strikes on Russian military industrial facilities and transport networks. On July 29, Ukraine targeted a railway station and resource base in Salsk, Rostov Oblast, disrupting logistics for Russian frontline operations. Drones have also struck key railway, fuel and infrastructure sites in Rostov and Volgograd oblasts. (ISW, 07.29.25)
  • Russia's Investigative Committee said July 29 that Ukrainian operatives were behind the recent forest fires in the Zabaikalsky region (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

  • On July 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Kamianske and Verkhnekamianske, and advanced near Ivano-Daryivka and Bila Hora. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • Kyiv is in the midst of its most ambitious defensive construction effort to date, erecting obstacles and carving up the earth to thwart manned and unmanned assaults. Well into its second year, the wider front-line program has been beset by delays, attacks and arrests for alleged corruption, according to the WSJ article, entitled “Inside Ukraine’s Effort to Fortify Hundreds of Miles of Defensive Lines.” It now faces being overrun by the enemy it is trying to repel. The government says it allocated more than 46 billion hryvnia, equivalent to $1.1 billion, for defensive construction in 2024, close to 2% of Ukraine's military spending for the year. (Wall Street Journal, 07.30.25) 
  • Ukraine is rapidly moving to mass-produce cheap interceptor drones—targeting 1,000 per day—to shoot down the Russian drones. Interceptors, which cost under $5,000 each, show a 70% success rate but require increased funding, production and trained operators to keep pace with Russia’s high daily output of kamikaze drones. (The Economist, 07.30.25)
  • Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has detained a Ukrainian Air Force pilot-instructor accused of spying for Russian military intelligence. (RBC.ua, 07.30.25)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

  • On July 31, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map  that the Russian armed forces advanced in Chasіv Yar, Toretsk, Zelenyi Hai, near Oleksiyivka and Andriivka-Klevtseve. (RM, 08.01.25)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry declared Chasiv Yar fully seized on July 31, but geolocated footage shows Russian troops have raised flags in western and southern areas—suggesting they control most, but not all, of the town. Ukraine’s military did not confirm the loss of Chasiv Yar, but analysts from open-source intelligence group DeepState, which is close to the defense ministry, showed the city either under Russian control or part of its eastern district as no man’s land. (Financial Times, 07.31.25, ISW, 07.31.25)3
  • Overnight into July 31, Russian forces launched a seven-hour assault on Kyiv using over 300 drones and eight missiles. The attack killed at least 31 people—including at least one child—and injured more than 159 with 16 children among the wounded. The barrage struck several residential buildings, including a direct hit on a high-rise apartment block. This attack occurred shortly after inconclusive peace talks in Istanbul and amid renewed international pressure on Russia. According to Ukrainian officials, the wave of strikes targeted more than 27 locations in Kyiv, causing widespread destruction and civilian casualties across the city. (RFE/RL, 07.31.25, RFE/RL, 07.31.25, Financial Times, 07.31.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.31.25, Washington Post, 07.31.25,. RFE/RL, 08.01.25, Financial Times, 07.31.25, Washington Post, 08.01.25, Meduza, 08.01.25)
    • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram that in July alone, Russian forces launched about 3,800 drones, 260 missiles—including 128 ballistic missiles—and 5,100 guided bombs. "This despicable attack by Russia shows that additional pressure and sanctions on Moscow are necessary," Zelenskyy said. (MT/AFP, 08.01.25. (Washington Post, 08.01.25)
    • “It is probably time to reduce to zero all of the timeframes that had been given to Putin to demonstrate a constructive approach,” said Ukraine’s foreign minister Andriy Sybiha. “President Trump has been very generous and very patient with Putin, trying to find a solution.” “Putin does it on purpose,” he added. “He does not care about any attempts to put an end to the killing. He only seeks to destroy and kill.” (Financial Times, 07.31.25, RM, 07.31.25)
    • A Russian milblogger claimed on July 30 that Russian forces launched up to 200 Geran-2 drones (the Russian iteration of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone) and Garpiya-A1 kamikaze drones (reportedly another Shahed drone variant that Russia produces with primarily PRC-produced components) in the strike against Kyiv. (ISW, 07.31.25)
    • Trump on July 31 condemned Russia’s ongoing attacks against Ukraine as “disgusting” and threatened new sanctions if Moscow does not agree to peace by the end of next week. “Russia? I think it’s disgusting what they’re doing. I think it’s disgusting,” Trump told reporters when asked to comment on a Russian missile strike earlier in the day that killed 31 people and wounded dozens more in Kyiv. “It should be stopped. It’s a disgrace,” Trump said, adding that he plans to impose fresh sanctions on Russia if Putin does not end the war on Ukraine by Aug. 8. “We’re going to put sanctions. I don’t know that sanctions bother him.” (MT/AFP, 08.01.25)
  • Unlike men, many of whom are unwilling conscripts, all Ukrainian women under arms are volunteers. They number about 100,000 of the country’s 1 million military personnel. Some 5,500 are on the front line. (The Economist, 07.31.25)
  • The Ukrainian National Guard’s 1st Azov Corps has established a specialized “anti-Shahed” unit to detect, intercept and destroy long-range Russian drones. (ISW, 07.31.25)

Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed at a press conference he jointly held with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko at Valaam on Aug. 1 that the Russian army is advancing “along the entire line of contact,” and repeated the Defense Ministry’s claim of capturing Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. Ukraine denies full Russian control, with OSINT group DeepState calling the Russian action a staged flag-raising. (Istories, 08.01.25)
  • Russia has started using jet-powered kamikaze drones, likely Iranian Shahed-238s produced locally as Geran-3, capable of speeds over 500 km/h and flying at higher altitudes. Their speed and altitude make them harder to intercept vs. earlier piston-engine Shahed drones, complicating Ukraine’s air defense efforts. So far, use has been limited and targeted. (Korrespondent.net, 08.01.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, July 25, 2025

  • $652 million in new U.S. arms sales to Ukraine were approved, supplementing $310 million in May. The policy preserves Biden-era commitments for $30 billion in aid over 3.5 years, providing a critical resource as Russia’s offensive intensifies. (CSIS, 07.25.25)
  • Senate Republicans introduced the PEACE Act to let European allies finance U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine by replenishing U.S. stockpiles, in line with Trump’s push for allies to share more costs. The plan aims for $5–8 billion annually and would expedite aid delivery, as bipartisan appetite wanes for new U.S. funding packages. The Peace Act proposed by Sens. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.) and Jim Risch (R., Idaho) provides the most detailed outline yet of how Trump could carry out his new plan to arm Kyiv with European funds after his efforts to bring about a swift end to the war in Ukraine ran aground. Their bill would create a fund at the U.S. Treasury to accept money from allies. The U.S. has provided nearly $66 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. But there is little to no appetite or momentum in the Republican-led Congress to authorize another foreign aid package. European allies already have been paying U.S. contractors to build new weapons for Ukraine, which can take years. That effort is expected to continue. (Wall Street Journal, 07.30.25, Wall Street Journal, 07.31.25)
  • Now that Trump has agreed to allow U.S. weapons to be sent to Ukraine—provided that the Europeans foot the bill—complex negotiations are underway over what types of hardware they can provide, and with what money. Various ideas are being fleshed out but, to start, officials say, they need to cover about $10 billion of weaponry. (Washington Post, 07.26.25)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

  • The Senate Republican-led Appropriations Committee is proposing a significant increase in Ukraine aid within the $852 billion 2025 defense budget, including $800 million for long-term military support. This move rejects the Trump administration’s push to defund sustained weapons supplies. Additionally, Sens. Shaheen and Murkowski have introduced a $54.6 billion, two-year Ukraine aid package emphasizing weapons, stockpile replenishment, the use of seized Russian assets, arms sales and expanded presidential drawdown authority. Although Trump has become more open to aid, strong Republican resistance in Congress threatens passage, with prior aid packages having stalled due to ongoing efforts to cut foreign spending. (Washington Post, 07.31.25,4 New York Times, 07.31.25)

Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

  • Germany will supply extra U.S.-made Patriot air defense launchers to Ukraine in the coming days, with more components arriving in 2–3 months. The move, coordinated with Washington, follows devastating Russian strikes on Kyiv and is part of a broader push to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses amid relentless aerial attacks. Additional components will follow within months, with the U.S. providing replacements to Germany. (Financial Times, 08.01.25, Istories, 08.01.25)
  • The head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, discussed with advisers to the leaders of European countries the preparation of a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and the United States in the field of security. He reported this on Telegram Aug. 1. (Korrespondent.net, 08.01.25)

Monday, July 28, 2025

  • Trump said he would cut the timeline for Putin to reach a truce with Ukraine or face potential economic penalties, ramping up pressure on Moscow to bring the fighting to a halt. “I’m going to make a new deadline of about 10—10 or 12 days from today,” Trump told reporters in Scotland July 28 during talks with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. “I’ll announce it probably tonight or tomorrow,” Trump added. “But there’s no reason to wait. If you know what the answer is,” expressing frustration with Putin for rebuffing previous calls for a ceasefire. (Bloomberg, 07.28.25, Truth Social, 07.30.25)
    • Russian stocks fell July 28 after Trump said he would shorten the 50-day deadline he previously gave Putin to end the war in Ukraine to just 10-12 days. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) Index dropped 1.8% in just over an hour. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
    • Oil prices rose after Trump announced he will shorten the 50-day deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, warning of severe tariffs or secondary sanctions if Moscow does not comply. Brent crude climbed to $68.93 a barrel and WTI to $66.45. (Wall Street Journal, 07.28.25)
  • Russia banned gasoline producers from exporting fuel until the end of August to meet accelerating demand. (Bloomberg, 07.28.25)

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

  • Just 24 hours after Trump threatened Russia with financial penalties over the war in Ukraine, he seemed unsure on July 29 about whether the strategy would even work. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said that in 10 days, the United States may have to impose “tariffs and stuff.” “I don’t know if it’s going to affect Russia, because he wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going,” Trump said, referring to Putin. “But we’re going to put on tariffs and the various things you put on. It may or may not affect them. But it could.”  Trump’s threats have raised questions about how much leverage the United States has with Moscow—and whether Trump is willing to use it. There is little indication that Trump’s ultimatum will change Putin’s mind on the war. (New York Times, 07.29.25)
    • Putin said Aug. 1 that Moscow hoped for more peace talks with Ukraine but that the momentum of the war was in its favor, signaling no shift in his stance despite a looming sanctions deadline from Washington. (Reuters, 08.01.25)
    • The Kremlin offered little in the way of reaction to Trump’s latest threat. Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said July 29 that the Kremlin had “taken note” of the comments. Putin’s allies have condemned, and even mocked, Trump’s shifting deadlines. “Fifty days, it used to be 24 hours, it used to be 100 days,” Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said earlier this month after Trump issued his 50-day deadline. “We’ve been through all this.” (New York Times, 07.29.25)5
  • Oil tycoon Eugene Shvidler has lost his bid to overturn U.K. sanctions imposed over his ties to Russia and oligarch Roman Abramovich. (Financial Times, 07.29.25)
  • One top Moscow university, the Higher School of Economics, is offering a new master’s degree in sanctions evasion. (New York Times, 07.29.25) One of the signs that Russian leadership expects major Western sanctions on Russia to remain in place for years.

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

  • Indian state refiners halted Russian oil imports in the past week, citing reduced discounts and warnings from Trump of potential tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. The companies are now sourcing alternatives from the Middle East and West Africa. Private refiners in India continue imports. (Reuters, 07.30.25)
  • Andritz AG settled a U.S. probe into sanctions violations after the Austrian engineering firm failed to seek a license for some exports to Russia. (Bloomberg, 07.30.25)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

  • India has told its state oil refiners to draft plans for sourcing non-Russian crude as the U.S. adopts a tougher stance and threatens penalties for continued Russian energy purchases. Indian refiners are now seeking alternative supplies, mainly from the Middle East and Africa, though a swift shift is seen as difficult and costly. (Bloomberg, 07.31.25)

Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

  • At least four oil tankers laden with Russian crude are waiting off India’s western coast, as the Asian country’s purchases of the commodity come under the spotlight amid pressure from the U.S. and European Union. (Bloomberg, 08.01.25)
  • The U.K. Treasury fined Markom Management Limited £300,000 for making a payment to a person subject to Russia-related asset freezes. Markom Group has been linked to the Rotenberg family, close associates of Putin, for using shell companies to mask high-value transactions. The penalty reflects broader U.K. enforcement of Russian sanctions. (Financial Times, 08.01.25)
  • Sergey Matviyenko, son of Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko, permanently lives in a €10 million villa in Pesaro, Italy, and transferred substantial family assets to San Marino before EU sanctions on his mother. The Matviyenkos reportedly retain residency, assets, and local business ties despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions. (Istories, 08.01.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Friday, July 25, 2025

  • Trump said July 25 he is confident a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy “will happen,” despite Kremlin denials of near-term talks. Trump also renewed his threat to impose secondary sanctions on Russia, targeting countries and entities doing business with Moscow. (Washington Post, 07.26.25)

Monday, July 28, 2025

  • On July 28, Trump told reporters that he was “not so interested” in talking to Putin anymore, having grown tired of the gulf between what the Russian president says over the phone and his actions immediately afterward. “We have such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people die [from Russian strikes in Ukraine] the following night,” Trump lamented. He then moved up the deadline he had previously given Putin to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, changing it from early September to “about 10 or 12 days from today.” (Meduza, 08.01.25)
    • The Kremlin itself didn’t immediately react to Trump’s statements. However, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev quickly sounded off on X. “Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10,” Medvedev wrote. “He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road!” (Meduza, 08.01.25)
      • Trump didn’t reply to Medvedev directly, but his ally Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, also a prolific and combative social media user, did: “To those in Russia who believe that President Trump is not serious about ending the bloodbath between Russia and Ukraine. You and your customers will soon be sadly mistaken. You will also soon see that Joe Biden is no longer president. Get to the peace table.” (Meduza, 08.01.25)
      • Medvedev fired back less than an hour later: “It’s not for you or Trump to dictate when to ‘get at the peace table.’ Negotiations will end when all the objectives of our military operation have been achieved. Work on America first, gramps.” (Meduza, 08.01.25)
      • That message finally prompted a direct response from Trump. Around midnight D.C. time on July 31—just hours after announcing a “penalty” against India for its purchases of Russian energy and weapons—he posted on Truth Social: “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.6 We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!” (Meduza, 08.01.25)
      • Medvedev’s next post came several hours later and was published only on Telegram. “About Trump’s threats against me on his personal ‘Truth’ social media network, which he’s banned in our country,” Medvedev wrote. “If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path.  And about India’s and Russia’s ‘dead economies’ and ‘entering very dangerous territory’ – well, let him remember his favorite movies about ‘the walking dead,’ as well as how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand’ can be.”7 (Meduza, 07.31.25)
      • Trump said Aug. 1 that he has ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” after Medvedev reminded the United States that Moscow still has nuclear strike capabilities. Trump wrote in his Truth Social account: “Based on the highly provocative statements of ... Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that. Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances.” (Washington Post, 08.01.25, Truth Social, 08.01.25)
  • U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged in an interview with Fox News Radio that the administration held secret talks with Russia this week—“not with Putin but with some of Putin’s top people”—and made no progress on a cease-fire. “I think what bothers the president the most is he has these great phone calls where everyone sort of claims yeah, we’d like to see this end, if we could find a way forward,” Rubio said in his interview, “and then he turns on the news and another city has been bombed, including those far from the front lines.” “So at some point,” Rubio said, “he’s got to make a decision here about what—how much to continue to engage in an effort to do cease-fires if one of the two sides is not interested.” (New York Times, 07.31.25, Washington Post, 08.01.25)
  • Trump has now executed a 180-degree turn on Russia, at least in tone, in roughly 180 days. He came to office questioning whether Russia was truly the invader of Ukraine, and hinting that the Ukrainians were responsible for their own troubles. His famous blowup with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February led him to briefly cut off aid to the Ukrainian military. That has been followed by a series of apparent reversals, with no public acknowledgment from Trump that he is changing strategy. He no longer relies on what he has framed as a deep past relationship with Putin in an effort to win him over. In fact, he has been quite open about his frustration that conversations about cease-fires are usually followed by Russian escalation, often in the pace of drone and missile attacks. (New York Times, 07.31.25)

Friday, Aug. 1, 2025

  • Putin told a press conference he jointly held with Lukashenko at Valaam Aug. 1 that any disappointments in the progress of peace talks arose from "excessive expectations." "Negotiations are always in demand and always important, especially if it is a desire for peace. I evaluate them positively overall," Putin told journalists. Putin said Russia's conditions had not changed. Those conditions have long been tantamount to Ukraine's surrender. Putin said Russia needed "a lasting and durable peace on good basic foundations that would satisfy both Russia and Ukraine and would guarantee security of both countries." (Washington Post, 08.01.25, Meduza, 08.01.25)8
    • "As for negotiations [with Ukraine], negotiations are always in demand and always important, especially if there is a desire for peace. I assess this, on the whole, positively. ... We agreed that we can conduct such negotiations without cameras, without any political noise, in a calm manner and seek compromises. They have not worked so far,” Putin told a press conference he jointly held with Lukashenko at Valaam Aug. 1. (Kremlin.ru, 08.01.25) Machine-translated.
    • Zelenskyy responded to Putin via social media: “We hear statements from Russia, and if this is a signal of their serious readiness to end the war honorably and establish a truly lasting peace, and not just an attempt to gain more time for war and delay sanctions, then Ukraine once again confirms its readiness for a meeting at the leaders' level at any time,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 08.01.25)
  • Putin said his war goals in Ukraine are unchanged, as he dismissed U.S. pressure for a ceasefire. Trump on July 28 drastically shortened a deadline for Russia to accept a truce saying he was “disappointed” in Putin’s refusal to stop the war. Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul last week were “positive, in general,” Putin told reporters Aug. 1 as he met with Lukashenko. “As for any disappointments from anyone, all disappointments arise from excessive expectations,” he said, without naming the U.S. leader. (Bloomberg, 08.01.25)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Ukraine’s goal is to end the war with Russia this year, but accused Moscow of simulating peace talks. He backed Trump’s threat of strict new sanctions, calling them essential to halting Russia’s war effort and impacting global security. (RBC.ua, 08.01.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • Austrian Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger signaled openness to a national debate on NATO membership, citing new security realities due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. While Austria has maintained neutrality since 1955 and lacks public or parliamentary majority support for joining NATO, Meinl-Reisinger argued neutrality alone “does not protect” Austria and called for stronger self-defense and security partnerships. The move follows Finland and Sweden’s recent NATO accessions. (Kyiv Independent, 07.27.25)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov claimed Russia is “fighting alone against the entire West,” ignoring support from North Korea, Iran, and China—which provide Moscow with weapons, drones, technology, and sanctions evasion. (ISW, 07.28.25)
  • France’s departing military chief, General Thierry Burkhard, warned that Russia could rebuild its military to threaten Western Europe within five years. He stressed Europe must boost defense, adapt to new technologies and tactics, and strengthen nuclear coordination, as U.S. forces may reduce their presence. By 2030, he tells The Economist, “Russia will possess the means once again to pose a military threat to Western countries, and European countries in particular.” Yet there are reasons for optimism. General Burkhard thinks American armed forces will not leave Europe, though they might reduce their presence. (The Economist, 07.31.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

  • China and Russia have kicked off joint naval exercises near the coast of the Russian port city of Vladivostok as the two countries continue to deepen their ties through military cooperation. The five-day exercises that began on Aug. 1 have been dubbed Maritime Interaction 2025 and will see naval forces from both countries training in anti-submarine warfare, air defense, search-and-rescue operations, and “joint gun” exercises. (RFE/RL, 08.01.25)
  • Russian regulators on July 30 banned the import and sale of trucks from several major Chinese manufacturers, citing what they called a “direct threat” to public health and safety. The ban targets vehicles produced by Dongfeng, Foton, FAW and Sitrak, according to Rosstandart, the federal agency responsible for enforcing technical regulations and vehicle safety standards. Inspectors cited issues including poor braking performance and faulty seatbelt mountings. Rosstandart said it has ordered the manufacturers to recall the affected vehicles and halt sales or face fines. (MT/AFP, 07.30.25)
  • In Ukraine's Russian-occupied Luhansk, where shelling still echoes across devastated streets and reconstruction promises remain largely unmet, a new headline is making waves: Chinese activists reportedly plan to open a private school for Chinese citizens. (RFE/RL, 07.27.25)
  • A boom in learning Mandarin, including in President Vladimir Putin’s family, has become a stark example of Russia’s continued pivot toward China and away from ties with the West. That’s driven the cost to take on Mandarin-speaking nannies to double in recent years to $120,000 a year or more, he said, roughly ten times the average Russian income in 2024. (Bloomberg, 08.01.25)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

  • Putin told a press conference he jointly held with Lukashenko at Valaam Aug. 1 that Russia has produced its first serial nuclear capable ballistic missile system “Oreshnik.” “The first thing I want to say in this regard is that we have produced the first serial Oreshnik complex, the first serial missile, and it has entered service with the troops. Now the series has started working. First. Second. Our specialists—both Belarusian and Russian military specialists – have chosen a location for future positions, and work is currently underway to prepare these positions. So, most likely, we will close this issue by the end of the year.” (Istories, Kremlin.ru, 08.01.25) Also see Medvedev’s Dead Hand threat and Trump’s counter-threat of positioning two nuclear submarines in “appropriate regions” in the section on Ukraine-related negotiations.
  • Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that the current state of Russian-American relations is hindering the process of negotiating an extension of the New START Treaty. The Kremlin previously dangled the prospect of incentives that were unrelated to the war in Ukraine, such as bilateral arms control talks and economic projects, in order to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. (ISW, 07.29.25)
  • The U.S. has likely stationed nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time since 2008, in a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that it remains committed to European security. (Bloomberg, 07.28.25)

Counterterrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

  • Vladimir Putin said Russia was committed to supporting Syria’s reconstruction during a meeting with that country’s foreign minister in Moscow on July 31, as both nations seek a way forward after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, a crucial ally of the Russian president. (Bloomberg, 07.31.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

  • Russian airline Aeroflot cancelled dozens of flights on July 28 after a hacker group called Silent Crow claimed a year-long cyberattack that disrupted its IT systems. Silent Crow, in coordination with Belarusian hackers, claims to have downloaded flight databases, stolen 20 terabytes of data, and destroyed 7,000 servers. The attack follows a wave of cyberoffensives against Russian state firms since the start of the war in Ukraine. (Financial Times, 07.28.25)
    • Ukrainian and Belarusian hackers who claimed responsibility for a major cyberattack on Aeroflot said Aug. 1 that they published the flight history of the Russian airline’s CEO despite official denials that any data had been leaked. (MT/AFP, 08.01.25)
  • A notorious Russian hacking group is impersonating a prominent cybersecurity firm and using the country’s internet providers to spy on foreign embassies, according to a report published July 31 by Microsoft Corp. The attackers, a group known as Turla or Secret Blizzard, engaged in a “large scale” cyber-espionage campaign in which they used Russian internet service providers, or ISPs, to conduct their hacks, according to Microsoft. Turla hackers also disguised their malware to impersonate cybersecurity software from the Russian cybersecurity company Kaspersky. (Bloomberg, 07.31.25)
  • During Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive, Elon Musk ordered a shutdown of Starlink satellite coverage in newly reclaimed areas such as Kherson, disrupting frontline communications and stalling an encirclement of Russian troops. The move, reportedly driven by concerns over potential Russian nuclear escalation, temporarily left Ukrainian troops and drones without connectivity. The episode highlighted how critical—and vulnerable—Ukraine and Western militaries are to Musk’s privately controlled Starlink network. (Reuters, 07.25.25)
  • U.S.-German company Auterion will ship 33,000 AI-powered drone “strike kits” to Ukraine by year-end under a Pentagon contract, aiming to counter escalating Russian drone attacks. The kits, known as Skynode, turn manually controlled drones into autonomous systems that can’t be jammed and can track moving targets up to 1 kilometer away. Ukraine, already ramping up drone production, is seen as a testing ground for cutting-edge military tech. (Financial Times, 07.27.25)
  • Palantir, the software and data analytics company has garnered at least $300 million in new and expanded business since Trump took office for his second term, helping to make it the S&P's top performing stock of 2025. Though the U.S. military doesn't publicly acknowledge specific uses of Maven in the battlefield, officials and news reports have referred to the use of the AI program in the Ukraine conflict, as well as recent fighting in Yemen and Iran. (Washington Post, 08.01.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia’s flagship Urals crude is trading at its narrowest discount relative to benchmark prices since the Kremlin started its war against Ukraine in 2022, suggesting that fresh European sanctions have so far failed to make an impact on petroleum products made from the country’s crude. Urals traded above $58 last week. (Bloomberg, 07.29.25)
  • Russia is shipping less oil to the world. In the first seven months of 2025, Moscow exported 4% less crude than it did in the comparable period of 2024, with an even sharper drop from the same timespan in 2023, ship-tracking by Bloomberg shows. (Bloomberg, 07.29.25)
  • The new trade deal announced by President Trump and the EU includes a European pledge to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy over three years, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian fuels. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said the move will help phase out Russian gas and LNG, with Europe’s U.S. energy imports already rising. Analysts note the pledged purchases would significantly exceed current levels, though implementation details are unclear. (Axios, 07.28.25)
  • Kazakh authorities said July 29 that the EU had granted the country permission to export coal to the bloc via Russian ports despite sanctions targeting Moscow. (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)

Climate change:

  • Farmers in southern Russia are facing the potential loss of up to 25% of key crops due to worsening drought conditions in the country’s leading agricultural regions, the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia reported, citing the Narodny Farmer association. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • The Voronezh region has declared a state of emergency in two districts after violent storms earlier this month destroyed large swaths of crops in one of Russia’s most important grain-producing areas. The emergency decree signed by Governor Alexander Gusev on July 25 and published July 29 affects the Verkhnekhavsky and Novousmansky districts, which were hit by a powerful hurricane and hailstorm between July 13 and 14. Voronezh ranks among the country’s top five grain producers and is a major supplier of sugar beets. (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said special envoy Steve Witkoff would be headed to Russia after wrapping up a visit to Israel ahead of a new deadline for Moscow to halt its fight with Ukraine. “Yeah, going to Israel and then he’s going to Russia, believe it or not,” Trump told reporters at the White House on July 31. Trump also said he expected to impose sanctions once a new deadline he set earlier this week expires, but did not foresee that it would alter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s behavior. (Bloomberg, 07.31.25)
  • The Kremlin on July 28 said it would not rule out a potential meeting between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump during celebrations in China this September marking the end of World War II. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • The head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos said July 31 that he had agreed with his NASA counterpart to extend operations of the International Space Station (ISS) until 2028. Roscosmos said earlier this week that its chief, Dmitry Bakanov, had arrived in Texas to meet with NASA’s acting administrator Sean Duffy, marking the first visit to the United States by a Russian space agency head since 2018. (MT/AFP, 08.01.25)
  • The Republican-controlled Senate confirmed Joseph Kent as head of the National Counterterrorism Center in a partisan vote, despite Democratic objections over his support for conspiracy theories and efforts to alter intelligence reports. Kent's past comments on Russia had clouded his nomination by Trump. Shortly after Russia's invasion, Kent described President Vladimir Putin's demands on Ukrainian territory as "very reasonable." (Washington Post, 07.31.25)
  • Since 2022, the U.S. Border Patrol has detained nearly 12,000 Russian nationals, with peaks in May–June and December 2022. From 2024, deportations of detained Russians nearly doubled to 40–50 per month, including those agreeing to voluntary departure before court. The CBP Home app now offers help with self-deportation. (Media Zone, 07.30.25)
  • A newly declassified annex to the Durham report concludes that key “Clinton plan” emails, cited by some Republicans to claim Clinton’s campaign framed Trump for Russia collusion, were likely fabricated by Russian intelligence. Investigators found no evidence Clinton’s team orchestrated a false Russia narrative. The annex details how supposed campaign emails were probably stitched together from real hacked messages to create disinformation, underscoring the role of Russian interference in election-era conspiracy theories. (New York Times, 07.31.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy, signaling the end of a short-lived wartime growth surge and forecasting a return to stagnation. In its July World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF projects Russia’s GDP will grow just 0.9% in 2025, a steep drop from last year’s 4.1% expansion. The revised forecast marks a 0.6 percentage point downgrade from the IMF’s April report—the largest cut among all major economies. The world economy is expected to grow by 3% this year and 3.1% in 2026. (MT/AFP, 07.30.25)
  • Russian authorities are increasingly restricting access to core government statistics, including economic, demographic and crime data, as concerns grow over a potential economic slowdown, analysts at the state-owned Promsvyazbank (PSB) said in a new report. Rosstat reported a nominal 12.2% year-on-year rise in retail turnover for June but omitted the real, inflation-adjusted number. PSB analysts estimate real growth may be closer to 2–3%. (MT/AFP, 08.01.25)
  • Russian authorities are increasingly withholding core economic, demographic, and crime statistics, including inflation-adjusted trade and population figures, amid concerns over a slowdown and war-related losses. Analysts say the real economy is weaker than government reports suggest, with data blackout trends accelerating since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 08.01.25)
  • Car sales for June came in with a 30% plunge. The Russian economy’s turn was also visible in Friday’s move by Russia’s central bank to slash its benchmark interest rate some 2 percentage points, following up on a 1 percentage-point reduction last month. Inflation concerns are morphing into worries about growth. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov last month even warned, “we are on the verge of slipping into a recession.” (Bloomberg, 07.26.25)
  • The Russian government has nationalized Glavproduct, one of the country’s largest canned food producers. (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)
  • Russia is slashing a multibillion-dollar program to modernize its aging civilian ship fleet as mounting war costs and falling revenues push the Kremlin to tighten spending across major industrial sectors. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • Russian tech giant Yandex reported a 34% year-on-year rise in second-quarter adjusted net profit to 30.4 billion rubles ($368 million), rebounding from a net loss in the first quarter, the company said July 29. (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)
  • United Nations experts on July 28 called on Russia to take urgent action to end the trafficking and forced labor of migrant women. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • Putin on July 31 signed into law a controversial bill that criminalizes accessing or searching for online content labeled “extremist.” (MT/AFP, 07.31.25)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed amendments introducing misdemeanor penalties for the “intentional” search for banned materials online, including when using a VPN. (Meduza, 07.31.25)
  • WhatsApp was supposed to be blocked in Russia by July 1, but propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova claims the deadline was pushed back to Aug. 1 due to “defenders and lobbyists” among Russian officials. (Meduza, 07.28.25)
  • Dutch journalist and entrepreneur Derk Sauer, who built a publishing empire in post-Soviet Russia that included The Moscow Times and Vedomosti, died at 72, Het Parool reported on July 31. He sustained severe injuries in a sailing accident in Greece a month ago and underwent treatment in Athens and Amsterdam hospitals. (Meduza, 07.31.25)
  • Share of Russians that think Russia is headed in the right direction declined from 73% in May to 69% in July, according to Levada. The share of Russians that approve of Putin’s presidential conduct remained at 86% in that period of time. (Levada.ru, 08.01.25)

Defense and aerospace:

  • The Russian Pacific Fleet conducted training to defend naval bases in Primorsky and Kamchatka as part of the mass “July Storm” exercises. Anti-sabotage and border guard units practiced repelling attacks by unmanned boats and drones, involving helicopters and naval FPV drones. The exercises, which involve over 150 warships, 120 aircraft, and more than 15,000 personnel from multiple fleets, run until July 27 and include over 550 combat drills. (Moscow Times, Kremlin.ru, 07.24.25)
  • St. Petersburg’s annual Navy Day parade has been cancelled due to security concerns, the Kremlin confirmed Sunday, coming days after local authorities issued and then removed a statement about the event being called off. (MT/AFP, 07.27.25)
  • Russia is planning to develop a reusable rocket aimed at reducing space launch costs, following the approach pioneered by SpaceX, Dmitry Bakanov, the chief executive of state space agency Roscosmos said in an interview with business daily RBC on July 28. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

  • An 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula early July 30, making it one of the six strongest earthquakes ever recorded. (Washington Post, 07.30.25)
  • Russia’s Interior Ministry has quietly stopped publishing data on deaths from criminal activity, according to analysts at the Esli Byt Tochnym (We’re Being Precise) project. (Meduza, 07.29.25)

  • Russia’s Investigative Committee has launched a criminal case into the alleged embezzlement of 2.4 billion rubles (about $29.8 million) from the Defense Ministry linked to the supply of substandard body armor to the military, Kommersant reported on July 31. (Meduza, 08.01.25)

     

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Nicaragua has formally recognized Russia's annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhia, expressing “full support” for Moscow’s territorial claims and its “special military operation” in Ukraine. (Intellinews, 07.31.25)
  • Russia deepened its foothold in West Africa on July 28, signing a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Niger’s military-led government that includes plans to build nuclear power plants and overhaul the country’s energy infrastructure. (MT/AFP, 07.29.25)
  • A group of European lawmakers walked out in protest during a speech on July 30 by Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliament in Geneva. (MT/AFP, 07.30.25)
  • Italy summoned Russia’s ambassador on July 30 after Moscow added Italian President Sergio Mattarella to a list of Western officials it accuses of using “hateful” and “Russophobic” speech. MT/AFP, 07.30.25)
  • Pope Leo XIV held a first meeting on Saturday with a senior Russian Orthodox cleric at the Vatican since becoming the head of the Catholic church earlier this year, the Holy See said without giving further details. Leo—who has called on the Kremlin to make a "gesture" towards peace in Ukraine—received Metropolitan Anthony of Volokolamsk, the head of external relations at the Russian Orthodox Church. (MT/AFP, 07.26.25)
  • Despite ongoing war and sanctions, Russian tourists are returning to Europe in growing numbers, especially to France, Italy, and Spain. Hotel stays by Russians in Italy and France jumped over 19% in the past year. (Telegraph, 07.28.25)
  • In June 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MOD) Africa Corps fully replaced the Wagner Group's deployment to Mali. Africa Corps likely has around 2,000 personnel currently deployed to Mali, compared to Wagner's prior deployment of around 2,500 personnel. (UK MOD X Account, 07.31.25)

Ukraine:

  • Ukraine’s parliament overwhelmingly restored the independence of anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAPO following massive youth protests and international pressure, reversing a recent law that threatened their autonomy. The Rada passed the bill nearly unanimously (331 in favor, 9 abstentions) after street demonstrations and warnings from EU officials that undermining reform would endanger aid and Ukraine’s EU hopes. The crisis, sparked by government moves against anti-corruption figures—including raids on NABU detectives investigating President Zelenskyy’s associates and a probe implicating his former business partner—damaged Zelenskyy’s reformist image and trust. The episode underscored Ukraine’s vibrant civil society oversight, even amid ongoing war and Russian attacks. (Washington Post, 08.01.25, The Economist, 07.31.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 07.25.25)
    • Up to 70 MPs from President Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party had been reportedly reluctant to support the bill restoring the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing possible prosecution by NABU and SAPO. (Financial Times, 07.26.25)
    • Crowds of demonstrators cheered in jubilation in Kyiv on July 31 as they celebrated a vote in Ukraine's parliament which approved new legislation to restore the independence of anti-corruption agencies. (RFE/RL, 07.31.25)
    • The European Commission said Ukraine’s new law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) restores key safeguards for their independence, following criticism of earlier reforms. The Commission praised the move but stressed ongoing efforts are needed for Ukraine’s EU path and the rule of law. (RBC.ua, 07.31.25)
    • A host of European leaders welcomed the news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a law restoring independence to his country’s main anti-corruption agencies.. (CNN, 07.31.25)
  • England’s High Court has ordered former PrivatBank owners Ihor Kolomoisky and Gennadiy Bogolyubov to repay $1.9 billion over fraudulent lending that caused Ukraine’s largest bank to collapse. This marks a significant win for PrivatBank and Ukraine’s government amid scrutiny of its anti-corruption efforts. The bank, nationalized in 2016, spent eight years in English courts seeking to recover the money. (Financial Times, 07.30.25)
  • An investigation by “Schemes” found that Anatoliy Komar, head of Ukraine’s Energy Customs, built a 70-million-hryvnia estate (USD 1,675,156) near Kyiv during wartime, with assets registered to relatives. His daughter attends a London college, and the family uses a luxury Mercedes at below-market rates. Komar declined to explain the wealth, while links to a firm accused of major customs fraud were uncovered. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.01.25)
  • Ukraine’s SBU revealed that over 1 billion hryvnia (about $25 million) was embezzled from funds for army food in 2022. Ex-procurement chief Bohdan Khmelnytsky allegedly inflated contract prices by up to 221%. He faces up to 12 years in prison, marking his fifth corruption suspicion. (Ukrainska Pravda, 08.01.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Moldovan President Maia Sandu on July 30 accused Russia of preparing an “unprecedented” campaign to interfere in the country’s upcoming elections, warning that Moscow is seeking to install pro-Kremlin figures in parliament. (MT/AFP, 07.30.25)
  • Estonia's Foreign Ministry said on July 28 it summoned Russia's charge d'affaires over a Russian vessel's breach of Estonian territorial waters. (MT/AFP, 07.28.25)
  • Local residents in Lithuania spotted an unidentified drone that entered the country’s airspace from Belarus on July 28 morning, according to Lithuanian police. (Meduza, 07.28.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

  • Former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi said: “The most valuable resource in war is people. Not only because this resource can’t be quickly replenished, but also because it can be mentally lost and rendered useless.” (Vogue.ua, 07.27.25)
     

Footnotes

  1. Putin told a press conference he jointly held with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on August 1 that Russia needed "a lasting and durable peace on good basic foundations that would satisfy both Russia and Ukraine and would guarantee security of both countries,” Meduza and The Washington Post report. In his Aug. 1 remarks, Putin said Russia will continue to strive to attain the goals he formulated in a speech during his meeting with the leadership of Russia’s Foreign Ministry in June 2024. In that June 14, 2024, speech Putin said that:
    1. Ukraine must cede all territory claimed by Russia within their pre-2014 administrative borders.
    2. Ukraine must commit, in law and practice, to neutrality and not join alliances like NATO.
    3. There must be demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine (as defined by Russia), and Ukraine must remain non-nuclear.
    4. All gains made by Russia in Ukraine (including Crimea and “new regions”) are non-negotiable and must be internationally recognized.
    5. Russian-speaking citizens’ rights must be specifically guaranteed in Ukraine.
    6. All sanctions against Russia must be lifted as part of a peace settlement.
    7. After this, Russia wants a new “Eurasian security architecture” that includes Europe established.
  2. On July 14, Trump gave the Russian leader a Sept. 2 deadline to end hostilities, or face secondary sanctions which could deliver a blow to Moscow's key energy exports. However, in remarks made on July 28 Trump then said he was “disappointed” in Putin for not ending the war and reset the deadline for a peace to Aug. 8.
  3. Russian forces have taken 26 months to advance 11 kilometers from the western boundary of Bakhmut, which Russian forces seized in May 2023, to western Chasiv Yar. Russian forces began an intensified effort to seize Chasiv Yar in April 2024 after slowly advancing to the settlement's eastern outskirts and seizing Ivanivka. Russian forces are likely to complete the seizure of Chasiv Yar soon, potentially enabling new offensives against Ukraine’s “fortress belt” of fortified cities in Donetsk. (ISW, 07.31.25)
  4. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) is one of two main ways the United States has supported Kyiv since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. Rather than directly ship U.S. military equipment, as the Pentagon also has done, the program orders weapons from American defense companies, which will then deliver the equipment months or years into the future. (Washington Post, 07.31.25)
  5. RM offered the following analysis of Lavrov’s remarks in the July 18, 2025, issue of the Russia in Review news digest: Lavrov appears to be openly criticizing Trump. Lavrov is usually very professional, so this move seems clearly deliberate and likely coordinated with Vladimir Putin. This provides insight into how Putin assesses Trump—and also suggests that Lavrov is willing to risk angering Trump, possibly to Russia’s detriment. Trump is inconsistent in many things—but not usually in tolerating personal criticism.
  6. New Delhi and Moscow have a “steady and time-tested partnership,” India’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Aug. 1, just days after Trump ripped the South Asian nation over its ties with Russia. (Bloomberg, 08.01.25)
  7. The “Dead Hand” refers to a Russian nuclear command system dating back to the Cold War that’s designed to automatically launch a retaliatory strike if the country’s leadership were incapacitated.
  8. [When asked: “One more question—are the conditions for a long-term ceasefire that you voiced a year ago still in effect?”] Putin told a press conference he jointly held with Lukashenko at Valaam on Aug. 1: “Yes, those conditions, of course, remain the same. In fact, they are not even conditions, but goals—I formulated Russia’s goals. Until then, we kept hearing that it wasn’t clear what Russia wanted. Well, we formulated them in June last year at a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Everything is clear there, but the main thing is to eliminate the causes that gave rise to this crisis, that is fundamental. And, of course, humanitarian issues, broad security issues—security for Russia, but also for Ukraine itself. By the way, from the Ukrainian delegation there was the idea that perhaps it makes sense to talk about the security of both Russia and Ukraine in the context of pan-European security. This was one of the leaders of the Ukrainian delegation who expressed such a view. Overall, we think this is correct, we share this view. And the humanitarian issue is the Russian language, the independence and decent conditions for the development of the Orthodox Church, the Christian church in Ukraine. All of this together should be discussed and should be laid as the foundation of a long-term, lasting, indeed with no time restrictions whatsoever, peace." (Kremlin.ru, 08.01.25) Machine-translated.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP.

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