5 Things to Know

1. Vladimir Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastward and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters. Asked by ABC on May 29 about the demand on non-enlargement, U.S. presidential envoy Keith Kellogg said: "It's a fair concern." "We've said that to us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table, and we're not the only country that says that—you know I could probably give you four other countries in NATO and it takes 32 of the 32 to allow you to come in to NATO," Kellogg said. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov lauded Kellogg’s comments, saying they came as a “result of Russia-U.S. talks held behind closed doors,” according to The New York Times.
2. Russian and Ukrainian officials continued to lock horns into the afternoon hours of May 30 on whether Moscow has to send its memorandum detailing its conditions for peace to Kyiv ahead of June 2 for the two warring sides to sit down for a second round of talks in Istanbul on that date. Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov insisted that the Russian side would present the memorandum in Istanbul on June 2, Washington Post reported May 28. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, said they had already sent their memorandum to Russia and that Russia should reciprocate immediately. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, Russia has not received a copy of Ukraine's memorandum, ISW reported. In a May 29 interview with ABC, Kellogg confirmed that the United States had received Ukraine’s memorandum, but was still waiting on Russia’s, according to The New York Times. He said the next step after the June 2 talks could be a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump, which is something that Volodymyr Zelenskyy also proposed this week.
3. In the past week, Russian forces gained 52 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a slight decrease in the rate of advance from the previous week, according to the May 28, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The past week saw Russian forces capture four of the Sumy region’s villages, Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka and Zhuravka, according to this eastern Ukrainian province’s governor, Oleh Hryhorov, in remarks reported May 27. Then on May 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zelene Pole in the neighboring Donetsk region. On May 29, DeepState reported that the Russian armed forces had occupied Romanivka and Troitske. In May, Russian armed forces have more than doubled the area that they seized in April, capturing an average of 5.5 square miles each day amid Kyiv’s claims of Russia’s pending summer offensive in the east, according to data provided by DeepState and reported by The New York Times. Russian forces are advancing on Ukrainian battlefields at the fastest pace this year, according to this newspaper.  If the pace of Russia’s advance so far this year, as estimated by ISW for January–April 2025 and DeepState for Jan. 1–May 22, 2025, remains unchanged (which is highly unlikely, as such trends are rarely linear), it would take Russia 140–180 years to capture the remaining 80+% of Ukraine’s territory.*
4. Russia’s aerial attacks against Ukraine in the past week have shattered some previous records, according to estimates by ISW that are based on data from the Ukrainian air force. Ukraine’s air force said May 25 that Russia had launched 69 ballistic and cruise missiles along with 298 attack drones. The air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said that it was the largest bombardment of the war in terms of the number of weapons used, according to The New York Times. Then, overnight on May 25–26, Russia fired what Kyiv said was the largest-ever drone barrage on Ukraine to date, including "355 Shahed-type drones" and nine cruise missiles. In between the attacks, Trump hit out at Putin “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” the U.S. president wrote on May 25. On May 27, Trump warned that Putin is "playing with fire.”¹ While attacking Putin, Trump oscillated on whether he’d agree to impose new sanctions on Russia. On May 25, he said he was “absolutely” considering new sanctions against Russia. But on May 28, he said he’s holding off on new sanctions against Russia in order to preserve the chance for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
5. The U.S.  has endorsed a Group of Seven communique adopted at the recent G-7 meeting in Canada, representing a significant change in the U.S. public position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. This past February alone saw U.S. either vote against condemnation of Russia for the Ukraine war or sign off on declarations only if the latter avoided assigning blame for the conflict on three occasions at international fora. First, on Feb. 21, 2025, the so-called Chair’s Summary of the First G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting had to be produced instead of a communique after top officials from the U.S. and several other countries skipped it and delegates remained far apart on key issues.² The summary said “there was agreement to support all efforts towards a just peace in Ukraine,” but it did not assign any blame for initiating the conflict. Then, on Feb. 24, 2025, the U.S. supported UNSC Resolution 2774 that mourned “the tragic loss of life throughout the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict” and called for “a lasting peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” but, again, assigned no blame to initiating the conflict. Finally, on Feb. 25, 2025, the U.S. voted against a UNGA resolution, which expressed “concern over “the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation,” and which demanded “that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine.” Such behavior at international fora has been consistent with the refusal by Trump and his top aides to blame Russia for the war. In contrast, however, the G-7 communique, which was adopted by G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on May 22, had the following language: “We condemn Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine... The G-7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace.” Thus the signatories of the May 22, 2025, communique, including the U.S. representative, pointed the accusatory finger at Russia for initiating the war against Ukraine.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia is building power lines in occupied southeastern Ukraine to link to its own grid the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant it has captured, according to a new Greenpeace report. It is the clearest evidence yet of Moscow’s intent to restart and exploit the offline facility, despite the risks and calls to address the plant’s status in peace talks. (New York Times, 05.27.25)
  • There is no sign Russia is preparing to restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, an IAEA official said May 29. (MT/AFP, 05.29.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has become a crucial source of missiles, munitions and even soldiers for Russia’s war in Ukraine as the sanctions-defying alliance between the two countries intensifies, according to a report by 11 countries, including the U.S. and Japan. (Bloomberg, 05.30.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The partnership between Iran and Russia to produce Iranian-designed Shahed drones on Russian soil has deepened military ties between them, according to a report by C4ADS. According to Ukrainian figures, attacks involving an average of 100 Shahed-style drones a night have become common this year, with last weekend seeing some of the largest onslaughts at about 300 drones a night. The numbers suggest that the manufacturing deal, which has cost Russia an estimated $2 billion, has borne fruit. (Washington Post, 05.29.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Since the onset of the invasion in February 2022, the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has verified over 13,000 civilian deaths, including close to 700 children, and more than 31,000 injuries, among them some 2,000 children. In April 2025 alone, close to 150 civilians were killed and nearly 700 injured, marking one of the highest monthly tolls in recent times. (OSCEPA, 05.08.25)
• More than 350 residents of Russia’s southwestern Kursk region have been killed and nearly 800 remain missing following Ukraine’s months-long occupation of the border area, regional authorities said May 27. “The fate of 789 residents of the border regions, including four children, remains unknown. There are 358 dead officially,” the Kursk region’s Prosecutor General Alexei Tsukanov said. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• Russia's military has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in its drone attacks on civilian targets in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, a new United Nations report has found. The report by Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, issued on May 28, was the latest evidence pointing to possible crimes allegedly committed by Russian civilian or military authorities in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.29.25)
• Russian forces reportedly recently executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the battlefield. The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office stated on May 23 that it launched an investigation into reports of Russian forces executing two POWs in the Pokrovsk direction on May 22. (ISW, 05.23.25)
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a second round of prisoner-of-war (POW) exchanges on May 24 as part of a larger 1,000-for-1,000 exchange agreed upon during recent bilateral negotiations in Istanbul.  Ukrainian and Russian officials announced that Ukraine and Russia each exchanged 307 POWs. On May 25 Russia said y it had exchanged another 303 Ukrainian prisoners of war for the same number of Russian soldiers held by Kyiv — the last phase of the three-stage swap between the warring countries. (MT/AFP, 05.25.25, ISW, 05.24.25)
• Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Kyiv and Moscow have conducted more than 64 prisoner exchanges that have seen thousands of people traded. (Financial Times, 05.25.25)
• Of the more than 5,000 POWs Russia has repatriated to Ukraine, at least 206 died in captivity. (AP, 05.27.25)
• Thousands of Russian soldiers remain in Ukrainian captivity after the prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine according to the formula "1000 for 1000," which took place last week. This was reported to "Important Stories" by the leader of the public movement "Our exit" Irina Krynina. (Istories, 05.28.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russian forces gained 52 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a slight decrease from the previous week. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces lost 4 square miles of their control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, according to the May 28, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 05.29.25)
• In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 504 square kilometers in Ukraine, according to a May 29, 2025, estimate by the Economist. (RM, 05.29.25)
• As of May 28, 2025, Russian forces occupied  113,070 square kilometers, which constituted 18.73% of the Ukrainian territory, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 05.29.25)
• Over the past year, Russia has taken only 0.6% of additional Ukrainian territory, at the cost of 1,500 killed or wounded per day, current and former Western officials said. (Washington Post, 05.25.25)

Friday, May 23, 2025

• The Ukrainian Air Force reported May 24 that Russian forces launched 14 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from the directions of Taganrog, Rostov Oblast; Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai; Bryansk City; and occupied Crimea; and 250 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down six Iskander-M missiles and 128 Shahed drones, and that 117 drones were “lost in location.” Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strike heavily targeted Kyiv City and that drones and missiles also struck Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. (ISW, 05.24.25)
• Large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks rattled multiple Russian regions for the third consecutive day, grounding flights, disrupting internet access and stretching the country's air defense systems thin. Russian officials claimed more than 700 drones were intercepted within the past 72 hours, nearly 100 of them near the capital. (Washington Post, 05.24.25)

Saturday, May 24, 2025

• On May 24, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zorya, Bahatyry and Zelene Pole. (RM, 05.29.25)
• On May 24, Russia's aerial attack on Ukraine was particularly significant, involving 250 long-range drones and 14 ballistic missiles, with Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, the main target. Ukraine's air force said it had intercepted six missiles and nearly all the drones, but at least 15 people in Kyiv were injured. (New York Times, 05.24.25)
• On May 24, Russia's defense ministry said it had intercepted 94 Ukrainian drones overnight. (New York Times, 05.24.25)

Sunday, May 25, 2025

• Russian forces conducted what so far has been the largest combined drone and missile strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 24 to 25, launching 69 ballistic and cruise missiles along with 298 attack drones. Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said in an interview that it was the largest bombardment of the war in terms of the number of weapons used. Ukrainian officials reported that the strikes killed at least 12 people and injured up to 60 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 30 cities and towns had been targeted in 12 regions. (ISW, 05.25.25, Meduza, 05.25.25, Financial Times, 05.25.25, New York Times, 05.25.25)
  • Trump on May 25 hit out at Putin after Russia’s aerial attacks killed civilians and destroyed apartment blocks, shattering any hope a record prisoner exchange completed earlier in the day might lead to a cessation of hostilities. “He is killing a lot of people. I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” Trump told reporters. “We’re in the middle of talking and he’s shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities . . . I don’t like it at all.” Later, Trump said in a Truth Social post that “something has happened” to Putin. “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” the president wrote. Trump also appeared to take exception to a comment by Zelenskyy that Russia’s weekend attacks were being met with “silence” from the U.S. “Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop,” the U.S. president said. (Financial Times, 05.26.25, Financial Times, 05.26.25)
    • After Trump’s comments on May 25, Russia carried out its third huge air attack on Ukraine in as many nights. The Ukrainian air force said the assault was the single largest drone attack since the Russian invasion began, trumping even the previous two nights. It said Russia had launched 903 drones and 92 missiles against Ukraine since May 23. (Financial Times, 05.26.25)
    • The Kremlin May 26 brushed aside Trump’s criticism of Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as an “emotional reaction” and defended the deadly campaign of missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. “At the same time, this is a very important moment, which is associated, of course, with an emotional overload of absolutely everyone and emotional reactions,” Peskov added. (Bloomberg, 05.26.25)
    • German foreign minister Johann Wadephul said on May 25 evening that Russia’s weekend attacks were “an affront” to Trump, who had “made great efforts to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.” “It’s clear that Putin doesn’t want peace,” Wadephul said. “He wants to continue the war. And we must not allow him to do so. That is why we will decide on further sanctions within the European framework.” (Financial Times, 05.26.25)
• Dozens of Ukrainian drones targeted industrial sites across Russia late May 25 and early May 26 morning. The attacks came in waves, with Russia’s Defense Ministry saying it downed 96 Ukrainian drones overnight and 12 more on May 26 morning across several regions. Aviation authorities temporarily halt flights in and out of multiple cities. (MT/AFP, 05.26.25)
• On May 25, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Tykhe and Stara Mykolaivka. (RM, 05.29.25)
• Russian forces have eliminated the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk after a four-month-long offensive operation to level the frontline south and southwest of Kostyantynivka in order to set conditions to advance towards the settlement. (ISW, 05.25.25)
• Ukraine is increasingly worried about securing more U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems, as stockpiles sent during the Biden administration are drying up. (Washington Post, 05.25.25)
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev called for Russian control over a buffer zone encompassing nearly all of Ukraine, apart from a relatively small area of Volyn and Lviv oblasts along Poland’s border. (ISW, 05.25.25)
• What separates Ukrainian teenager Kyrylo Horbenko from the thousands of battle-hardened soldiers he will soon serve alongside is that when he signed up, he secured for himself an interest-free mortgage, and the first installment of a sign-on bonus totaling a 1 million Ukrainian hryvnia, equivalent to about $24,000—a sum that exceeds many experienced soldiers' yearly pay. But few young people are swayed by Contract 18-24 so far. The government says only around 500 have joined the scheme since it launched in February. (Wall Street Journal, 05.25.25)

Monday, May 26, 2025

• Authorities in northeastern Ukraine's Sumy region said that Russian forces had captured four villages amid their efforts to create a "buffer zone" near the Russia-Ukraine border. Sumy region Gov. Oleh Hryhorov, writing on Facebook, listed four villages he said were now held by Russian forces — Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka and Zhuravka. He said their residents had long been moved to safety. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• On May 26, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Bilovody, Kamianka and Kotlyarivka. (RM, 05.29.25)
• On May 26, Russia fired its so far biggest-ever drone barrage on Ukraine, Kyiv said. Russia fired "355 Shahed-type drones" including decoys, as well as nine cruise missiles, between May 25 night and early May 26, in the largest drone attack of the invasion so far, Ukraine's Air Force said. The Kremlin said the May 26 strikes were a response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Ukrainian officials said the strikes damaged several Russian military-industrial facilities, including a factory that makes parts for ballistic missiles. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25, Wall Street Journal, 05.26.25, ISW, 05.26.25)
  • Over three consecutive nights, 23–26 May 2025, Russia conducted three of its largest-scale One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) attacks against Ukraine since the start of the war.  Over 900 OWA UAS were fired at Ukraine. (UK MOD X Account, 05.30.25)

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

• On May 27, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Troitske, Yablunivka, Stara Mykolaivka and Malynivka. (RM, 05.29.25)

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

• On May 28, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zelene Pole and advanced near Novosilka, Vodolahy, Loknya and Bilovody. (RM, 05.29.25)
• Zelenskyy said Russia has amassed around 50,000 troops near Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region. Zelenskyy said he believes Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone of around 10 kilometers (6 miles) deep into Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy suggested Moscow does not have the resources to successfully launch a new major ground offensive. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25, Washington Post, 05.30.25)
• Zelenskyy warned on Russia’s own drone production push, saying Moscow was probably manufacturing 300 to 350 daily, with a goal of reaching 500 per day. (Financial Times, 05.28.25)
• In recent months, Zelenskyy said, Russia has been able to recruit 40,000 to 50,000 new soldiers, while Ukraine is mobilizing 25,000 to 27,000. (New York Times, 05.28.25)
• A major Ukrainian drone assault targeted the city of Zelenograd, known as Russia’s “Silicon Valley,” as well as a machine-building plant north of Moscow. Russian civil aviation authorities temporarily suspended flights to and from Moscow’s Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky airports as the Defense Ministry reported downing nearly 300 Ukrainian drones overnight across 12 regions and Moscow. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25)
• Medvedev claimed on May 28 that almost 175,000 people have arrived at military units and that more than 14,000 people have joined volunteer units since the start of 2025, for a total of roughly 1,285 people per day. Medvedev also reiterated Putin's May 13 claim that 50,000 to 60,000 people voluntarily join the Russian military per month. (ISW, 05.28.25)
  • In 2024, up to 407,200 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. This follows from the data on federal budget expenditures for 2024, which were studied by Important Stories. (Istories, 05.30.25)
  • Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine. A Russian military observer visited a Moscow Military District (MMD) training center and reported on May 18 that Russian contract servicemen undergo only a week-long basic military training and spend another two weeks in training centers in occupied Ukraine. (ISW, 05.30.25)
• On May 28, a former Russian officer who commanded air operations during the siege of Mariupol and later became deputy mayor of Stavropol was killed in an apparent bomb attack. Stavropol Mayor Ivan Ulyanchenko confirmed the death of his first deputy, Maj. Zaur Gurtsiyev, 34, a veteran of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.29.25)

Thursday, May 29, 2025

• After incremental gains for months, Russian forces are advancing on Ukrainian battlefields at the fastest pace this year. This month, they have more than doubled the area that they seized in April, capturing an average of 5.5 square miles each day, according to data from DeepState. Russia this month is advancing at the fastest pace since November, the data shows. (New York Times, 05.29.25)
• On May 29, 2025, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Romanivka and Troitske and advanced near Ridkodub. (RM, 05.30.25)
• On May 29, Ukrainian drones struck at least two apartment buildings in and around Moscow overnight. (MT/AFP, 05.29.25)

Friday, May 30, 2025

• In the night of May 29-30, Russia launched a large-scale drone attack on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv region that borders Russia, said in a post on Telegram that at least eight people were injured in the attack. (RFE/RL, 05.30.25)
• A Russian company awarded a dozen servicemen a total of 15 million rubles ($190,000) for destroying U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.30.25)
• Two powerful explosions rocked a Russian naval facility near Vladivostok, in an area regularly used for Pacific Fleet training exercises. While Russian officials blamed gas cylinders, Ukrainian special service sources told the Kyiv Post the blasts were the result of a successful operation by Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR). (Kyiv Post, 05.30.25)
• Ukraine’s 425th Skala Assault Regiment said it set up the country’s first combat unit on motorcycles, training soldiers to ride hard, strike quickly and disappear before Russian drones can lock on. (Financial Times, 05.30.25)
• Assembling Iranian drones in a Russian factory is an unusual option for a work-study program. Few students or migrant workers, however desperate or foolhardy, would willingly sign up to become a military target. Yet that is the situation in which hundreds of young African women, some of them younger than 18, have unwittingly found themselves. (The Economist, 05.30.25)
• New Zealand volunteer Shan Le Cairns died in the war in Ukraine. This was reported by the Ukrainian ambassador to Australia Vasyl Miroshnichenko on the social network X on May 30. (Korrespondent.net, 05.30.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Trump, speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One, gave no indication that he is willing to provide Ukraine with military assistance. (New York Times, 05.26.25)
• In the latest sign of a warming relationship, Zelenskyy met in Berlin with Merz. Merz said May 26 that Germany would no longer place range restrictions on the weapons it sends to Ukraine. “There are no more range limitations for weapons delivered to Ukraine,” he said. “Neither from the British, nor the French, nor from us. Not from the Americans, either.” But as he noted on May 27, those restrictions had been lifted months ago. And given that the kinds of weapons Germany has delivered so far do not generally exceed a working range of under 50 miles, the decision to lift limits has not changed the course of the war. Merz also said Berlin will help Ukraine produce long-range missiles. Also, Merz said that he has not ruled out the possibility of supplying Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles. (New York Times, 05.27.25, WSJ, 05.26.25, Financial Times, 05.28.25, New York Times, 05.28.25, Meduza, 05.29.25)
  • Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the decision by Western countries to lift restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine “dangerous,” saying that it “directly contradicts” Russia’s “efforts to move toward a political resolution.” (Meduza, 05.26.25)
• Zelenskyy called on Western allies to provide about $30 billion by the end of the year to boost domestic weapons production and hold off Russia’s advance. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• On May 25, Trump said he was “absolutely” considering new sanctions against Russia. “I’m not happy with what Putin is doing,” Trump said before Moscow’s latest barrage. “He’s killing a lot of people, and I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin. I’ve known him a long time — always gotten along with him — but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all.” (Bloomberg, 05.25.25, WSJ, 05.26.25)
  • The United States has not yet lifted all Joe Biden-era restrictions on Ukraine’s warfighting, but Trump is “seriously considering” to do so, two senior Western officials told Kyiv Post’s Washington correspondent on May 25. “All the previously imposed restrictions – whether already eased or not – are currently under the review as President [Trump] believes that the current status-quo does not serve our common interests of bringing Russia to the [negotiation] table,” one official said without offering further details. (Kyiv Post, 05.27.25)
• On May 28, Trump said he’s holding off on new sanctions against Russia in order to preserve the chance for a deal with Putin to end the war in Ukraine. “If I think I’m close to getting a deal, I don’t want to screw it up by doing that,” Trump said May 28 at the White House. “Let me tell you, I’m a lot tougher than the people you’re talking about.” Asked by a reporter if Putin is interested in a peace deal, Trump said, “I can’t tell you that, but I’ll let you know in about two weeks.” (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
• “Putin is getting dangerously close to burning the golden bridge that Trump has set out before him,” a U.S. official told Politico. Still, four administration sources said a decision on imposing tougher sanctions against Russia has yet to be made. (Meduza, 05.28.25)
• The U.S. Senate is expected to "start moving" next week on a bill introducing sweeping new sanctions against Russia, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said at a press briefing in Kyiv on May 30 attended by The Kyiv Independent. The proposed bill would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. At least 82 U.S. senators are prepared to vote for the bill, Graham said.  (Kyiv Independent, 05.30.25, WSJ, 05.26.25)
• Senate Republicans are seizing on Trump's growing frustration with Putin to argue the time to impose fresh sanctions on Russia is now. "ITS TIME FOR SANCTIONS STRONG ENUF SO PUTIN KNOWS 'game over,'" Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) posted on X May 28. (Axios, 05.28.25)
• Talks between the European Union and the United States on coordinating efforts to crack down on sanctions evasion by Russia have ended in failure, the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on May 26, citing an internal document from Germany’s Foreign Ministry. (Meduza, 05.27.25)
• The European Union is considering cutting more than 20 banks from SWIFT, the international payments system, as well as lowering a price cap on Russian oil and banning the Nord Stream gas pipelines as part of a new sanctions package. (Bloomberg, 05.24.25)
• German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said after meeting his U.S. counterpart Marco Rubio that he’s optimistic Washington will issue new sanctions against Russia if Putin continues to dodge a peace agreement with Ukraine. “We have a common position regarding Ukraine,” Wadephul said in Washington after a 45-minute meeting with Rubio on May 28. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
• The European Union says China, including Hong Kong, is responsible for "approximately" 80% of the circumventions of sanctions against Russia even though Beijing continues to deny it. (RFE/RL, 05.27.25)
• United Arab Emirates-based companies have reached out to Italy’s government with plans for a possible bid for Italian lender UniCredit SpA’s Russia unit. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
• Samsung Display quietly severed its sourcing ties with Russian suppliers of gold, tungsten and tantalum in 2024. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• Putin said late May 26 that Western tech companies still operating in Russia but acting against the country’s interests should be “strangled,” as authorities seek to replace foreign software and services with domestic alternatives. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov and the state corporation's director for special assignments Vasily Brovko have hired lawyers to advise on lifting U.S. sanctions, according to an agreement published in the U.S. register of foreign agents. (Novaya Gazeta, 05.30.25)
• An intermediary linked to a businessman close to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko imports luxury goods to Russia by reporting artificially low prices in customs documents to circumvent sanctions, the Belarusian Investigative Center (BIC) has found. (MT/AFP, 05.29.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, May 23, 2025

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine. Lavrov insisted on May 23 that any peace agreement must include conditions preventing the "repetition of what brought putschists to power through a bloody revolution," referring to Ukraine's 2014 Euromaidan protests. (ISW, 05.23.25)

Monday, May 26, 2025

• Trump is tiring of the peace negotiations and is considering abandoning them altogether if a final push doesn’t work, people familiar with his thinking said, a remarkable change for a leader who campaigned on his ability to end the conflict on his first day in office. (WSJ, 05.26.25)

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

• Trump lashed out at the Kremlin for its unwillingness to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump declared that Putin is "playing with fire" — a reference to Russia's escalating bombardment of Ukraine in recent days despite the U.S. president's efforts to broker a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. (Washington Post, 05.27.25)
  • Medvedev dismissed Trump’s remarks. “Regarding Trump’s words about Putin ‘playing with fire’ and ‘really bad things’ happening to Russia. I only know of one REALLY BAD thing — WWIII. I hope Trump understands this!” Medvedev wrote on X. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25)
    • Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg criticized Medvedev for stoking fears of World War III. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25)
• “We are grateful for Turkey for its readiness to continue assisting with such negotiations and a peace settlement,” Lavrov said after discussions with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Moscow. (Bloomberg, 05.27.25)
• Russia has called for a United Nations Security Council meeting this week to address what it claims are European efforts to obstruct Ukraine peace talks. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

• Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, according to three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations. The first source said that if Putin saw a tactical opportunity on the battlefield, he would push further into Ukraine - and that the Kremlin believed Russia could fight on for years no matter what sanctions and economic pain were imposed by the West. A second source said that Putin was now less inclined to compromise on territory and was sticking to his public stance that he wanted the entirety of four regions in eastern Ukraine claimed by Russia. (Reuters, 05.28.25)
  • Asked on May 29 about a Reuters report that Russia wanted a written pledge over NATO not enlarging eastwards to include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, U.S. presidential envoy Keith Kellogg said: "It's a fair concern." According to him, at least four other NATO member states share this position. "We've said that to us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table, and we're not the only country that says that - you know I could probably give you four other countries in NATO and it takes 32 of the 32 to allow you to come in to NATO," he told ABC. Kellogg also told ABC News that “Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table.” (New York Times, 05.30.25, Meduza, 05.30.25, Reuters, 05.30.25)
    • Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, lauded Kellogg’s comments, saying they came as a “result of Russia-U.S. talks held behind closed doors.” (New York Times, 05.30.25)
• Zelenskyy has proposed a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump. “If Putin is not comfortable with a bilateral meeting, or if everyone wants it to be a trilateral meeting, I don’t mind. I am ready for any format,” Zelenskyy told reporters on May 27. The Ukrainian president added that he was “ready” for a meeting between Trump, Putin, and himself. (Meduza, 05.28.25)
• Russia and Ukraine will meet on June 2 in Istanbul for a second round of peace talks if the Kremlin produces its promised memorandum of terms for an agreement. After the first round of direct talks on May 16 in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine agreed to prepare memorandums detailing their conditions for peace. In the evening of May 28, Lavrov proposed a second round of talks on June 2, again in Istanbul. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who led the delegation in the previous round of talks, said a meeting was possible, pending the receipt of the Russian terms ahead of talks. Lavrov said the Russian side would present its terms in Istanbul. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, said they had already sent its terms to Russia and that  Russia should put forth its peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine immediately instead of waiting for a new round of talks next week in Istanbul (Washington Post, 05.29.25, RFE/RL, 05.29.25)
  • Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led the last Russian delegation in Istanbul, claimed on May 28 that he spoke with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and proposed a date for Russia and Ukraine to exchange their memoranda. Umerov responded to the Russian proposal on May 28 that Ukraine has already presented its memorandum to Russia. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on May 29 that Russia has not received a copy of Ukraine's memorandum. (ISW, 05.29.25)
  • In a May 29 interview Keith Kellogg confirmed that the United States had received Ukraine’s memorandum but was still waiting on Russia’s. Still, he said that the Ukrainian authorities should not refuse negotiations even if Russia did not submit its memorandum in advance. (New York Times, 05.30.25)

Thursday, May 29, 2025

• The U.S. representative to the United Nations told the U.N. Security Council on May 29 that the deal now on offer to end the war in Ukraine is the best possible outcome for Russia and that Putin should take it. Prolonging the war is in no one's interest, said John Kelley. (RFE/RL, 05.30.25)

Friday, May 30, 2025

• On May 30, Russia said it’s sending a delegation to Istanbul on June 2 for a second round of talks with Ukraine amid last-minute wrangling over Kyiv’s insistence that Moscow outline its peace proposals before any meeting. “Both memorandums, the Russian and Ukrainian ones, as we hope, will be discussed in the second round of talks,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said May 30, the state news service TASS reported. He also said talks of high-level meetings between the countries' leaders is premature and cannot be planned until progress is made at the delegation level. (Bloomberg, 05.30.25, Washington Post, 05.30.25)
• "Russia is drawing the war out," Zelenskyy said in a video address on May 29. "The so-called memorandum, which they promised and allegedly spent over a week preparing—no one has seen it yet." Zelenskyy accused Russia of deliberately delaying its memorandum and planning for any meetings between the two delegations to fail, while portraying Kyiv as the obstacle to peace. (Wall Street Journal, 05.30.25)
  • Ukraine wants to see Russia's proposals for a peace deal before it sends a delegation to Turkey, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on May 30. Sybiha accused Russia of stalling peace negotiations, saying that Moscow had yet to share a promised memorandum outlining its peace terms. "In order for the next planned meeting to be substantive and meaningful, it is important to receive a document in advance so that the delegation that will attend has the authority to discuss the relevant positions," Sybiha told reporters May 30. (MT/AFP, 05.30.25, Washington Post, 05.30.25, New York Times, 05.30.25)
• Despite the lack of confirmation that the talks will happen, Kellogg told ABC News May 29 that he expects them to go ahead. The next step, he added, could be a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy. (Washington Post, 05.30.25)
• Russia's permanent representative to the U.N., Vasily Nebenzya, told the U.N. Security Council on May 30 that Moscow’s “minimum” terms for a ceasefire deal are that “Western countries cease supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime” and that Ukraine end its military draft. (Meduza, 05.30.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Last week saw finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of 7 nations continue to blame Russia for the war in Ukraine, despite some initial resistance from the United States, and pledged to provide resources to help Kyiv sustain its economy and pay for its reconstruction. Officials also discussed tightening the price cap that they enacted on Russian oil exports as a measure to further squeeze Russia’s economy. “We condemn Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine and commend the immense resilience from the Ukrainian people and economy… The G7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace,” G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors said in a joint communique on May 22. (The New York Times, 05.22.25,Joint Communique, G-7, 05.22.25)
• When President Trump demanded months ago that NATO allies spend 5% of their national income on defense, leaders across Europe said it couldn't be done. Now those countries have found a way to meet his call—with a bit of creative accounting. Some NATO countries have in principle backed a new plan to broaden NATO spending beyond traditional items such as troops and weapons. The plan calls for a target of military spending at 3.5% of their gross domestic product, plus another 1.5% for newer, nontraditional ''defense-related'' spending by 2032, officials said. (New York Times, 05.24.25
• NATO wants Germany to contribute as many as 40,000 more troops for the alliance’s defense against Russia, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
• Germany may reinstate compulsory military service if a revamped volunteer system fails to meet recruitment goals, the defense minister Boris Pistorius said. (AP, 05.25.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday called Germany’s plans to build the “strongest” army in Europe a “very worrying” development. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25)
• The European Union wants to create a maritime security hub in the Black Sea to monitor potential threats and protect critical infrastructure, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, told reporters on Wednesday. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
  • The plan is part of a wider EU strategy that was presented on May 28 by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to forge closer cooperation with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine. The document, titled The European Union's Strategic Approach To The Black Sea Region, was seen by RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 05.28.25)
• Finland summoned the Russian ambassador to provide an explanation for a recent suspected violation of airspace. Two Russian military aircraft were suspected to have flown without permission in Finnish airspace on the Gulf of Finland on Friday, the government said separately, without providing details. (Bloomberg, 05.26.25)
• During a three-week exercise in Sweden, U.S. and U.K. forces joined Nordic and Baltic troops to practice potential war scenarios. The goal was twofold: Deter Russian aggression and more firmly integrate allies in this strategic corner of Europe. (Wall Street Journal, 05.28.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said his country is genuinely interested in the revival of activities within the framework of the Russia-India-China (RIC) format. Following the deadly Galwan Valley standoff between the militaries of India and China in 2020, the RIC troika has not been very active. (MP, 05.30.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said China has stopped selling drones to Kyiv and other European nations while continuing shipments to Russia. “Chinese Mavic is open for Russians but is closed for Ukrainians,” Zelenskiy said. (Bloomberg, 05.29.25)

Missile defense:

• President Trump's "Golden Dome" plan has riled the three countries whose weapons technology poses the greatest threat to U.S. territory, with China, Russia and North Korea claiming the missile-defense project is driving a dangerous new arms race. The Chinese, North Koreans and Russians are all developing such missiles, as well as new weapons intended to evade U.S. defenses and combat the U.S. in outer space. The three are also increasingly helping each other militarily. (Wall Street Journal, 05.28.25)

Nuclear arms:

• In recent years, Russia has invested heavily in the comprehensive modernization of nuclear facilities in the Orenburg region, using, among other things, products from Western companies. This was reported by the investigative project Danwatch and the publication Spiegel. (Istories, 05.28.25, Meduza, 05.28.25)
• Starting in late 2022, right when it began the deployment of the second regiment of Avangard missiles, Russia started an upgrade of missile positions. By late 2024, all positions of 368th missile regiment had been upgraded. (Russianforces.org, 05.28.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A previously unknown Russian hacking group was behind attacks last year on the networks of the Dutch police, NATO and several European countries, Dutch intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The group, nicknamed Laundry Bear by the security agencies, was most likely supported by the Russian state, the Dutch General Intelligence Agency and Military Agency said in a joint letter to parliament. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• Elon Musk has agreed a $300mn deal with Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, to distribute xAI’s Grok chatbot to the messaging app’s 1 billion users, in a sign of blossoming partnership between the two mercurial billionaires. (Financial Times, 05.29.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Oil tanker companies from Group of Seven nations are flocking back to the Russian oil trade. Tumbling global oil prices this year brought western-owned ships back into legal compliance with a G-7 cap that was designed to curb the Kremlin’s access to petrodollars. At the same time, sweeping farewell sanctions from the outgoing Biden administration temporarily disrupted a so-called shadow fleet of vessels that Russia had been using. In the past three months, almost a third of all the nation’s flagship Urals cargoes left Russia’s ports on western tankers, ownership and vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 05.30.25)
• The value of Russia’s crude shipments hit a two-year low in the four weeks to May 25. Flows averaged 3.39 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 25, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was down by just 10,000 barrels a day on the period to May 18. But the gross value of those cargoes was the lowest since April 2023. The value of Russia’s seaborne crude exports has been trending downward for more than 13 months. Since export income reached about $1.95 billion a week in the 28-day period to April 21, 2024, the price of Russia’s crude has plunged by 28%, while the volume of shipments is down by about 8%. It’s unclear whether sanctions have played a significant role in either trend. (Bloomberg, 05.28.25)
• Russia has begun sending military ships to escort tankers from its "shadow fleet" in the Gulf of Finland, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said in a new interview with the news agency Yle, calling the move unprecedented. (Meduza, 05.27.25)
• OMV AG sold its stake in a $20 billion natural gas concession off Abu Dhabi to Russia’s Lukoil PJSC, exiting a project once seen as helping it break free from the Kremlin’s energy orbit. OMV divested its 5% interest in the Ghasha development for $594 million, less a $100 million transaction fee, the Vienna-based company said Friday. (Bloomberg, 05.30.25)
• Serbia and Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom have extended their current natural gas supply deal by four months, pushing the expiration date to the end of September, Serbian media reported Monday. The extension comes as Serbia negotiates a new long-term agreement with Gazprom to replace its existing three-year contract, which was set to expire May 31. (MT/AFP, 05.26.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The CIA earlier this month unveiled a new gambit to persuade disgruntled Chinese officials to spy for the United States: a pair of Hollywood-quality videos that play on divisions within President Xi Jinping's government and offer instructions on how to anonymously contact the agency. It's a strategy that has already borne some fruit in Russia, CIA officials say. The spy agency in 2023 released similar videos aimed at recruiting Russians disaffected by the Ukraine war. Intelligence officials said that people there had contacted the CIA as a result, but they declined to provide details. CIA officials say they have evidence their messages aimed at China are being viewed there, despite heavy internet censorship. (Washington Post, 05.28.25)
• A federal judge on Wednesday ordered that Kseniia Petrova, a Harvard Medical School scientist from Russia who was detained for bringing biological specimens into the country for research purposes, be released from immigration custody after finding that a federal customs officer acted improperly by revoking her visa. Petrova remains in the custody of the U.S. Marshals Service in Louisiana on the smuggling charge and is being transferred to Massachusetts to face criminal proceedings here. (Boston Globe/AP, 05.29.25)
• Edward Snowden is a registered Russian taxpayer. The former U.S. National Security Agency whistleblower, who has lived in Russia since his revelations rocked the U.S. intelligence community in 2013, has a taxpayer identification number. (RFE/RL, 05.30.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The sharp rise in Russians’ living standards that has helped underpin support for the war in Ukraine is coming to an end, according to a Financial Times analysis of job adverts. Salaries for new posts rose by 4.2% between September and December 2024 in nominal terms, but only by 2.2% in the three months ending in April, according to the FT analysis. The method corrects for changes to the mix of new posts on offer and experience requirements. (Financial Times, 05.29.25)
• The boards of directors of at least two dozen publicly traded Russian companies have advised against paying dividends from their 2024 results to shareholders this spring as high interest rates, reduced revenue and sanctions pressure take their toll, the Vedomosti business daily reported Monday. According to state statistics agency Rosstat, Russian companies generated total earnings of 30.4 trillion rubles ($381.1 billion) in 2024, a decrease of 6.9% compared to 2023. Adjusted for inflation, which stood at 9.4%, real earnings declined by approximately 15%. (MT/AFP, 05.26.25)
• The probability of a systemic banking crisis in Russia is on the rise, according to a new report from a state-affiliated economic think tank. Experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) warn that while a full-blown crisis has not yet materialized. A systemic banking crisis, as defined by CMASF, would involve at least one of three conditions: non-performing loans exceeding 10% of total banking assets, a significant withdrawal of funds by depositors, or large-scale bank recapitalizations exceeding 2% of the country’s GDP. (MT/AFP, 05.29.25)
• President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday acknowledged Russia’s mounting potato shortage, driven by underwhelming crop yields that have led to record-breaking price increases. According to state statistics agency Rosstat, retail prices rose 92% last year. By May 2025, year-over-year prices had climbed by 166.5%—making potatoes the fastest-rising food item in the country and setting a record for the highest annual increase since the start of recorded statistics in 2002. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• After a slight decline in April, the share of Russians who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction has increased again in May—to 73% (an increase of 4 percentage points). The level of approval of Putin's performance as president has remained virtually unchanged over the past six months and is 86%, while the share of those who do not approve of the current president's performance has also remained unchanged—11%. The level of trust in Vladimir Putin has grown slightly and in May 2025 amounted to 50%. Every fifth person trusts Mikhail Mishustin and Sergei Lavrov (20%). (Levada.ru, 05.30.25)
• Nine out of ten Russians surveyed would not like to move abroad permanently, this figure is at its highest since 1990. 9% of respondents say they want to move abroad permanently, which is the lowest figure for the entire observation period. The main reasons that make people think about leaving the country are interest in another culture (38%), the desire to provide their children with a decent future abroad (32%), the economic and political situation in Russia (29% and 23%, respectively). Also, 17% each noted the high quality of medical and educational services abroad, 16%—greater legal and social security, 15%—greater opportunities for business and career growth, every tenth—due to fears of mobilization. (Levada.ru, 05.28.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from the launch pad No. 4 of the launch complex No. 43 of the Plesetsk space launch site. The Cosmos-2588 orbital plane is very close to that of U.S. reconnaissance satellite, USA 338. Estimates suggest that Cosmos-2588 can come to within 100 km from each other. (Russianforces.org, 05.23.25)
• A Russian drone manufacturer with ties to President Vladimir Putin’s daughter has published the country’s first school textbook on operating drones, the company announced on Monday. (MT/AFP, 05.27.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Monday that it dismantled a terrorist cell in the Nizhny Novgorod region that was allegedly working with handlers based in Poland. (MT/AFP, 05.26.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian ally Serbia has received a rare admonishment about supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine. President Aleksandar Vučić told the Financial Times that Serbian arms and ammunition were ending up on the Ukrainian side via intermediaries he claimed to have no control over. Russian President Vladimir Putin brought up the issue during a recent meeting in Moscow, and his foreign intelligence agency (SVR) issued an unusual statement accusing Belgrade of disloyalty. (Financial Times, 05.30.25)
• Three men in Germany were charged with working for Russia’s intelligence agencies and could have been plotting to kill a man, the German Federal Prosecutor’s Office said Wednesday. The three arrested in the “particularly serious case’’ in June, 2024 in Frankfurt were identified as Robert A., a Ukrainian citizen; Vardges I., an Armenian national; and Arman S., a Russian citizen. Their full names weren’t released in line with German privacy rules. (Boston Globe/AP, 05.29.25)
• British security officials are investigating whether Russia may be involved in three arson attacks on properties connected to Sir Keir Starmer, according to senior Whitehall figures. Prosecutor Sarah Przybylska has said in court that the alleged conspiracy is currently “unexplained.” Counterterrorism police leading the investigation are keeping an open mind about motive. (Financial Times, 05.26.25)
• Austria is deporting Chechen asylum seekers to Russia despite warnings they could be forcibly recruited to fight in Ukraine, court documents obtained by AFP show. (MT/AFP, 05.26.25)

Ukraine:

• The International Monetary Fund reached a deal with Ukraine to disburse the next portion of a $15.5 billion loan package for the war-battered nation. The IMF’s staff approved a fresh tranche of about $500 million after wrapping up a review during a visit to Kyiv this week, the Washington-based lender said. (Bloomberg, 05.29.25)
• Ukraine’s prosecutors have charged two senior officials from the customs office of the Volyn region for taking part in a smuggling scheme that deprived the state budget of approximately $1.3 million. (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, 05.29.25)
• Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) has delivered a guilty verdict against two lawyers and an individual who posed as a legal assistant, all of whom were caught attempting to bribe judges in the Poltava region. (Ukrinform, 05.30.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus will scale back joint military drills with Russia, scheduled for September, cutting troop numbers and moving exercises away from its western border. The number of troops taking part will be cut by nearly half, said Gen. Valery Revenko, head of the defense ministry’s international cooperation department, speaking at a security forum in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. (MT/AFP, 05.28.25)
• Russia may lose the race to China for the right to build the first nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan. China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is ready to build two NPP power units with a total capacity of 2.4 GW for $5.47 billion, as well as share technologies and provide the Kazakh side with the opportunity to fully manage the nuclear fuel cycle. This proposal was discussed at the end of May at a meeting between the head of the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China Dong Baotong and a representative of the Atomic Energy Agency of Kazakhstan Almasad Satkaliyev. (MT, 05.30.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. When asked if he sees Putin as a good guy or a bad guy on May 30, Trump said he was “very surprised” to learn Russia was shooting rockets at cities in Ukraine at the time when he thought the Russian and Ukrainian sides were getting close to a deal, according to Sky news.
2. U.S. Secretary of State Maro Rubio did not attend the event.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Alex Babenko.