• The stunning setback of Assad’s fall from power has occurred. Russia’s immediate concern will be salvaging its strategic military bases in Syria, the naval facility at Tartus, and the Khmeimim air base. They are critical to its ability to project power in the Middle East, they anchor Russia in the Eastern Mediterranean, and they serve as the logistics hub to support Russian operations in North Africa, including its military contractors in Libya and the Sahel. Many observers, including Russian military bloggers close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, argue that Russia will have no choice but to abandon those bases after Assad’s ouster and the victory of Islamic forces it has spent the greater part of the last decade trying to annihilate. The situation, however, remains quite fluid. The anti-Assad forces consist of many competing factions operating in various parts of the country. A long period of instability lies ahead, and Moscow is not without cards to play.
• As it became clear that the rebels were likely to quickly rout Assad’s forces, Moscow changed its rhetoric dramatically. Instead of railing against terrorist forces, it began to call for dialogue among all forces as part of a political process to end the fighting. Despite its rhetorical support for Assad, Russia never really provided much military backing against the rebels—perhaps understanding the fatal weakness of Assad’s demoralized forces hollowed out by corruption. Although it claimed otherwise, Moscow appears to have played a central role in persuading Assad to step down and flee the country. Tellingly, it was the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs—not an official Syria source—that announced Assad’s decision, and the Syrian president flew to Moscow for political asylum. At the least, the Kremlin will attempt to take credit for facilitating the rebels’ conquest of Damascus with minimal bloodshed.
• In the current period of great uncertainty, it would be premature to draw any far-reaching conclusions about Russia’s presence in Syria and the broader Middle East. One thing is certain: Putin is not going to simply abandon Russia’s military bases in Syria and calmly accept a major strategic setback—that would not only erode Russia’s reputation as a great power but also diminish his own domestic political standing.  

Read the full article at the Council on Foreign Affairs website.

Opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)