5 Things to Know

1. In his new book, Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward writes that at one point in Fall 2022 Joe Biden’s national security team believed there was a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to CNN.¹ That was a striking assessment that had skyrocketed up from 5% and then 10%, according to CNN and WP. The staggering odds prompted U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to tell his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in October 2022 that “If you did this [use a nuclear weapon], all the restraints that we have been operating under in Ukraine would be reconsidered,” according to the book, as cited by CNN. In a second call that month, Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainians were planning to use a “dirty bomb”—a false story the U.S. believed the Kremlin was pushing as a pretext to deploy a nuclear weapon, according to CNN. “Don’t do it,” Austin told Shoigu. “I understand,” Shoigu replied, according to CNN.
2. U.S. and European media have continued this week to report signals from Western officials that Kyiv may, if not should, become more amenable to negotiations with Moscow. WP reported on Oct. 10 that Western diplomats in Kyiv have sensed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has become more open to beginning such negotiations. Two days earlier, Bloomberg cited officials close to NATO as saying that Ukraine’s allies are detecting that Zelenskyy may be getting ready to adopt a more flexible approach as they strive to bring an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Zelenskyy is under growing pressure from Western partners to find a path toward a negotiated settlement, according to FT. There is a widespread sense that a Kamala Harris administration would ultimately be in favor of negotiations and winding down the war, however difficult it might be to provide the requisite security guarantees for Ukraine, according to FT. 
3. The Russian armed forces this week claimed to have recouped control of six settlements in its Kursk region, even as senior U.S. officials assessed that Ukraine will be able to hold onto the territory it seized in the western Russian province for at least several months, according to AFP and Bloomberg. “Now that the excitement of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk two months ago has faded, the prevailing narrative has reasserted its grip. Ukrainian forces are retreating in the face of steady, if costly, Russian advances,” The Economist wrote.
4. An unspecified senior U.S. defense official stated on Oct. 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, ISW reported, citing several Western media outlets. This assessment coincides with Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties that was disclosed in mid-September, putting the number of Russian KIAs as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000, according to WSJ. Such a high level of casualties would explain why Russian recruiters have had to accept older volunteers, causing the average age of those recruited in Moscow to climb from 40 in 2022 to 50 in 2024, according to Verstka. The Ukrainian military, which reportedly has had to contend with casualties of 480,000, according to its own estimates, has also had to continue recruiting older candidates, even after lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. The average age of Ukrainian fighters is now over 43, according to estimates by government and military officials in a September 2024 report by WSJ.*
5. Russian President Vladimir Putin met his new Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian for the first time on Oct. 11, as Tehran is expected to seek Moscow’s help in upgrading its military to counter the threat of attack by Israel, FT reported. Prior to the meeting, an Iranian outlet claimed that Russia has already provided Iran with an S-400 air defense system and a squadron of Su-35 fighter jets but provided no evidence for this claim, ISW reported. Neither of the two leaders were reported to have publicly mentioned military cooperation during their talks, but the Iranian leader did disclose that he hopes he and Putin will sign an agreement on “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Iran and Russia when the two meet again at the BRICS summit in Tatarstan on Oct. 22–24. Even if the Iranian outlet’s claim was accurate, one air defense system and one squadron would be far from enough to defend even one major facility in Iran against an aerial assault by Israel, which is contemplating a response to a recent Iranian missile barrage.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine has accused Russia of routing its missiles to fly over nuclear power plants “every day,” a military tactic that heightens the risk of atomic accidents. Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko told the FT that Russian attacks had forced one plant into shutdown on Aug. 26 after a substation was hit. Since then, he said, Russian missiles had increasingly flown over Ukraine’s three nuclear facilities, which generate almost 60% of the country’s electricity. (FT, 10.11.24)
• Voters in Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium miner, backed the construction of a nuclear power plant in a referendum on Oct. 6. Kazakhstan’s central election commission said on Oct. 7 that 71% of voters cast their ballots in favor of the government plan to build a new reactor. (Bloomberg, 10.07.24)
• The U.S. has completed its first plutonium pit for the W87-1 warhead at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This is part of a program to restore plutonium pit production after a pause since 1989, with future production goals of at least 80 pits per year.
  (Fissile Materials, 10.01.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea is likely to deploy troops to the battlefields in Ukraine, according to South Korea’s defense chief, as Pyongyang ramps up its support for Russia while taking further measures to distance itself from any form of rapprochement with Seoul. The deployment is highly likely given that Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual treaty that is like a military alliance, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told lawmakers during a parliamentary audit session on Oct. 8. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
  • The Kremlin on Oct. 10 dismissed a claim by Seoul that North Korean soldiers were likely to be fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. "This seems like yet another fake news story," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met his new Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian for the first time on Oct. 11, as Tehran is expected to seek Moscow’s help to upgrade its military to counter the threat of attack by Israel. Analysts say that, as part of its deterrence, Tehran is looking to Russian technology such as S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries as well as electronic warfare systems and fighter aircraft. Pezeshkian said after meeting Putin that the two countries’ positions on global issues “are much closer than those of other states” and that they “can support each other,” state media reported. Putin, for his part, invited Pezeshkian to Russia for a state visit. Neither of the two leaders were reported to have publicly mentioned military cooperation during their talks, but the Iranian leader did disclose that he hopes that he and Putin will sign an agreement on “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Iran and Russia when the two meet again for the BRICS summit in Tatarstan on Oct. 22-24. (FT, 10.11.24, TASS, 10.11.24)
  • An Iranian outlet affiliated with former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei claimed Oct. 8 that Russia provided Iran with an S-400 air defense system and a squadron of Su-35 fighter jets but provided no evidence for this claim. (ISW, 10.10.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Oct. 11 that an Israeli strike on Iran's civilian nuclear facilities would constitute a “serious provocation.” Speaking at a news conference in Laos, Lavrov emphasized that despite the rising tensions, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which closely monitors Iran's nuclear activities, has not reported any signs of militarization within the Islamic republic's nuclear program. (Anadolu, 10.11.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine has documented evidence related to the execution of 93 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), according to a law enforcement official tasked with investigating war crimes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.05.24)
  • Cases of the alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs fall under the mandate of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the court is entitled to try such cases, ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has said. (RFE/RL, 10.09.24)
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets reported on Oct. 7 that Ukrainian authorities are investigating another case of Russian forces' unjust abuse and execution of Ukrainian POWs. Lyubinets reported that he sent letters to the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in response to recent aerial footage of Russian forces torturing and executing three unarmed Ukrainian POWs near Niu York, Donetsk Oblast. (ISW, 10.07.24)
• Some 16,000 Ukrainian soldiers have gone through 13 rehabilitation centers established since 2022. (WP, 10.11.24)
• A Ukrainian journalist who was captured by Moscow while reporting from occupied east Ukraine has died in Russian detention, a Ukrainian official said Oct. 10. Victoria Roshchyna, who would have turned 28 this month, disappeared in August last year after traveling to Russian-held east Ukraine for a report. (MT/AFP, 10.11.24)
• The U.S. remains committed to a $50 billion G-7 loan for Ukraine, despite Hungary blocking an EU extension of sanctions on Russia. Washington is working on alternative solutions to ensure its contribution, aiming to show unity with allies and continue supporting Ukraine financially. (FT, 10.10.24)
• EU officials are considering ways to circumvent Hungary’s veto of funding for Ukraine amid frustration over Budapest’s blocking of more than €6 billion ($6.6 billion) in aid. (Bloomberg, 10.07.24)
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that a conference on Ukraine's reconstruction will be held in Rome on July 10-11, 2025. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• Russia collected 118 billion rubles ($1.2 billion) in taxes from occupied Ukrainian territories in January-September 2024, surpassing tax revenues from these regions in all of 2023, the RBC news website reported Oct. 9. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Oct. 5, Russian forces reportedly struck three civilian vessels docked in Ukrainian ports likely as part of intensified Russian military, political and economic pressure to undermine confidence in Ukraine's grain corridor, Western support for Ukraine and push Ukraine into premature negotiations. (ISW, 10.10.24)
  • A bulker loaded with Ukrainian grain for export was damaged during a Russian missile barrage in Odesa region over the weekend, according to the Infrastructure Ministry in Kyiv. The Paresa, which sails under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, had 6,000 tons of corn on board and was near one of docks at the Black Sea port of Pivdennyi when it was struck, the ministry said. (Bloomberg, 10.07.24)
• On Oct. 5, Russian forces said they had captured another village in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces "liberated the settlement of Zhelannoye Vtoroye" in Ukraine's Donetsk region, the defense ministry said. (MT/AFP, 10.06.24)
• On the night of Oct. 6 to 7, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia in Crimea causing a fire near the facility and that Ukrainian authorities are clarifying the damage to the facility. (ISW, 10.07.24)
  • More than 1,000 people were evacuated in the annexed Crimean city of Feodosia after Ukrainian strikes sparked a large fire at a major oil terminal there the day before, Russian-installed authorities said on Oct. 8. (MT/AFP, 10.08.24)
• On Oct. 7, a Russian missile attack struck near a major Ukrainian military airfield, officials from Ukraine said, part of a broad campaign of assaults by Moscow aimed at degrading Ukraine's military infrastructure and wearing down its air defenses. In a rare acknowledgment that a military base had been hit, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that a Kinzhal hypersonic missile hit near the Starokostiantyniv air base in western Ukraine. (NYT, 10.08.24)
• On Oct. 7, Russian forces were reported to have advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced within central Vovchansk and continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. A Ukrainian military observer stated that Russian forces seized Myasozharivka (west of Svatovo). Russian forces also reportedly advanced west of Donetsk City amid continued offensive operations in the area on Oct. 7. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces have seized half of Maksymilyanivka. (ISW, 10.07.24)
• On Oct. 8, a Russian strike on an industrial plant in Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, killed at least two people and injured more than 30. (RFE/RL, 10.08.24)
• On Oct. 8, it was reported that Russian troops entered Toretsk, a city about 50 miles north of Vuhledar, and are advancing toward its center. The Russian Army has also made small advances along the jagged, curving front line that stretches from Toretsk to Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, closing in on several strategic towns and cities, the battlefield maps show. The fall of the hilltop city of Toretsk would allow Moscow to advance on a critical highway connecting several cities that form Ukraine’s main defense belt in the part of the Donetsk region it still controls. Cutting off the road would greatly complicate the Ukrainian military logistics in the area. (NYT, 10.08.24)
• On Oct. 9, Russia said its missiles had struck two launchers of a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• On Oct. 9, Russia's Defense Ministry said it had retaken two villages in its Kursk region that were captured by Ukraine in a surprise offensive. The ministry said in a statement that Russian troops "continued offensive operations, during which they liberated the settlements of Novaya Sorochina and Pokrovsky." Novaya Sorochina is located close to the border with Ukraine, while Pokrovsky is deeper into Russian territory. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)
  • On Oct. 11, commander of the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" Apty Alaudinov claimed that during the operation in the Kursk region, the Russian army recaptured 15 settlements. (RM, 10.11.24)
  • The U.S. assesses that Ukraine will be able to hold onto the territory its forces have claimed in Russia’s Kursk region for at least several months if not longer, according to senior American officials. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
• On Oct. 9, Kyiv said it had struck a Russian arms depot in the border region of Bryansk that was storing hardware and ammo including munitions supplied to Moscow by North Korea. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)
• In the night of Oct. 9-10, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai, where around 400 Shahed drones were stored, and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea. (ISW, 10.10.24)
• On Oct. 10, at least four people were injured and dozens of buildings were damaged after waves of Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia. (RFE/RL, 10.10.24)
• On Oct. 10, the toll from an earlier Russian ballistic missile strike on port infrastructure in Ukraine's southern Odesa region rose to eight dead and nine wounded. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• On Oct. 10, Russia's military said that it had shot down a barrage of 92 Ukrainian drones overnight, most of them over the country's southwest. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)

• On Oct. 10, Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations east and southeast of Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced east of Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) and along the railway line south of Selydove. (ISW, 10.10.24)

  • The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector in eastern Ukraine likely remains the Russian main effort and has seen a high level of Russian operations over the past week. (UKMOD, 10.11.24)
  • Pokrovsk’s fall would not only impact military strategy but also Ukraine's steel industry, which relies on local coal. Losing Pokrovsk could disrupt industrial exports and weaken Ukraine’s economy. (FP, 10.11.24)

  • Nico Lange, a former chief of staff in Germany’s ministry of defense who has close links to the Ukrainians, says that although Russian troops are now in artillery range of the city of Pokrovsk, they lack the force numbers to make a concerted attack. (The Economist, 10.10.24)

• On Oct.10, Ukraine's OSINT group DeepState reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces have pushed through the left flank of the Kursk grouping of the Ukrainian armed forces. “[W]e are on the verge of another disaster due to repeated mistakes. We sincerely hope that encirclement can be avoided. The Kursk operation has been a major strategic success for the Defense Forces, but any victory needs to be maintained, not just relying on the enemy's continued incompetence,” the group warned. (RM, 10.11.24)
• In the night of Oct. 10-11, Russian strikes overnight on the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa killed four people, including a teenage girl, and wounded 10 more, the regional governor said. (MT/AFP, 10.11.24)

• On Oct. 11, Russian armed forces reported to have launched a major offensive in the Kursk region, advancing over six miles and capturing five settlements. On Oct. 11, Ukraine's OSINT group DeepState reported on its Telegram channel: "The situation in the Kursk region remains difficult but under control. It was a tough and tense night, and Ukraine's Defense Forces are indeed conducting stabilization operations, though it has not yet been possible to regain control of all the lost areas. The enemy suffered significant losses during the assault, making it difficult for them to fortify further. The worst situation is likely in Lyubymivka right now, but we need to wait and see how the new round of maneuver warfare ends." (RM, 10.11.24, Meduza, 10.11.24)

• On Oct. 11, Ukraine's OSINT group DeepState reported on its Telegram channel: “The enemy has occupied three settlements in the area of the Donetsk region’s city of Myrnohrad — Mykolaivka, Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar." (RM, 10.11.24)

• Now that the excitement of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk two months ago has faded, the prevailing narrative has reasserted its grip. Ukrainian forces are retreating in the face of steady, if costly, Russian advances across the front line in the Donbas, thanks to Russia’s vast superiority in troop numbers and firepower. (The Economist, 10.10.24)

• Pasi Paroinen, a military expert from the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which analyzes footage and satellite images from the battlefield, said that after the Kursk offensive, Russia advanced in the Donbas region at a pace unseen since 2022. In the past two months, it captured some 270 square miles in the area, roughly three times the amount taken in June and July, he said. (NYT, 10.06.24)
• NATO’s Mark Rutte told a Brussels news conference on Oct. 8 that Ukraine "could be facing its toughest winter" since hostilities began. (RFE/RL, 10.08.24)
• An unspecified senior U.S. defense official stated on Oct. 9 that Russian forces have suffered over 600,000 casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 — a stark increase from a prior U.S. intelligence assessment that Russian forces suffered about 315,000 casualties in Ukraine as of December 2023. The senior U.S. defense official stated that Russian forces have suffered more battlefield casualties in Ukraine in this past month – likely referring to early September through early October 2024 – than in any other month of the war. U.S. intelligence reportedly assessed as of December 2023 that the then-estimated 315,000 Russian casualties amounted to nearly 90% of Russia's military personnel at the start of the invasion. (ISW, 10.10.24, NYT, 10.10.24)
• The Russian military is seeing an influx of older contract soldiers who are largely seen as detrimental to its war effort in Ukraine, the investigative news outlet Verstka reported Oct. 9, citing anonymous military and parliamentary sources. Volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new recruits in Moscow, a senior Mayor’s Office source was cited as saying. The average age of recruits has risen from 40 at the start of the year to about 50, said another Moscow Mayor’s Office source. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)
• More than 1,000 men who have deserted from the Russian army with the help of a volunteer group called Idite Lesom (this translates literally as “go through the forest,” but colloquially means “get lost”). Idite Lesom has also helped tens of thousands of Russians dodge the draft. The organization says the number of requests from potential deserters rose tenfold from January 2023 to January 2024. Two-thirds of these deserters have left the country, primarily for Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – states that allow Russians to enter without a passport. The rest are hiding in Russia. Most western countries offer little help. (The Economist, 10.11.24)
• The BBC Russian Service reported the first case of approval of EU entry documents for a group of six deserters from the Russian army. They give the right to apply for asylum within France. (Istories, 10.11.24)
• Southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region is offering a nationwide record of 3 million rubles ($31,200) in one-time payments for signing military contracts to fight in Ukraine, authorities said Oct. 7. (MT/AFP, 10.07.24)
• Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks in Pokrovsk area since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in Summer 2024. (ISW, 10.06.24)
• Andrii Cherniak, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence, said that Russia had started using a new type of cheap drone carrying a camera to identify the location of Ukraine's air defenses. ''They identify where our mobile groups are positioned, where the machine guns are that can destroy them,'' he told Reuters in July. (NYT, 10.08.24)
• Victoria Mukhametova, a former Uralvagonzavod employee, was sentenced to 12.5 years in prison for state treason by a Sverdlovsk court. She was accused of selling military-technical information to Ukraine. (Meduza, 10.11.24)
• A Russian court has sentenced a 26-year-old Ukrainian woman to eight years in prison for allegedly plotting an explosion on the day that Russia claimed to have annexed four Ukrainian regions, the independent news website Mediazona reported Oct. 7, citing her lawyer. (MT/AFP, 10.07.24)
• Russian opposition activist Ildar Dadin was killed fighting for the Ukrainian army. (Bell, 10.11.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks on Oct. 10 with British, French and Italian leaders as part of a push to secure additional military and financial aid. Zelenskyy met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris after talks in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Zelenskyy said on X that he "outlined the details" of his proposed "victory plan" to defeat Russian forces in his meeting with Starmer, Macron, Rutte and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome. He added that he and the other leaders agreed to work on the plan together but gave no details on what it says. Zelenskyy said they discussed transatlantic cooperation and further reinforcing Ukraine militarily, adding, “These are the steps that will create the best conditions for restoring a just peace.” Zelenskyy also held talks with Pope Francis. Zelenskyy announced that the Vatican will assist in negotiations to return Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia. Ukraine will submit a list of detained journalists and has discussed the return of civilians and deported children. Zelenskyy invited the Vatican to participate in an upcoming meeting in Canada on humanitarian issues related to Ukraine’s peace plan. (Korrespondent.net, 10.11.24, RFE/RL, 10.11.24, RFE/RL, 10.10.24)
  • Zelenskyy said his military is confronting a shortage of military equipment as he reinforced plans to hold a second summit to push for an end to Russia’s war next month. “Before winter, we need your support,” Zelenskyy said in Paris after meeting with Macron. He said a ceasefire was not a topic of discussion with European leaders. (Bloomberg, 10.10.24)
  • A meeting of Kyiv’s allies, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, scheduled for this weekend at Ramstein Air Base in Germany was postponed after U.S. President Joe Biden canceled his travel plans to stay in the United States because of Hurricane Milton. (WP, 10.10.24)
• Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Oct. 9 that Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan lays out some things that Ukrainian officials “already have somewhat asked for,” and U.S. officials are reviewing the plan for “what’s really in the realm of possible.” Brown, speaking to reporters in Keflavik, Iceland, said there is a difference of opinion among NATO allies about whether to admit Ukraine to the alliance. U.S. officials would also consult further with Ukraine on the specific numbers and types of munitions it has requested. (WP, 10.10.24)
• The Netherlands has sent a first batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to the Dutch defense minister. The Dutch government had said it would send 24 F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. In a surprise visit to Kyiv and the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans offered 400 million euros ($439 million) to aid Ukraine’s drone program. (RFE/RL, 10.06.24, Bloomberg, 10.07.24)
• Germany announced a new €600 million military aid package for Ukraine, including air defense systems, tanks and drones. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also confirmed an additional €1.4 billion package would be delivered by the end of the year. (Korrespondent.net, 10.11.24)
• Ukraine signed a new agreement with Canada for an additional loan of 400 million Canadian dollars (about $300 million). This was the fourth such agreement between the two nations. (Korrespondent.net, 10.11.24)
• Kyiv’s forces are now also seeing a steadier supply of artillery ammunition after months of suffering through shortages, officials said. The steadier supply of shells is credited in part to efforts by allies, including a Czech-led initiative to deliver the munitions and a U.S.-French led effort to develop Ukraine’s artillery capability over the long run. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
• Ukraine is moving toward lifting a wartime ban on drone exports, as officials and industry participants say it is imperative to scale up in order to match Russia’s capabilities on the battlefield. (FT, 10.09.24)
• General Dynamics, the contractor that runs the 116-year-old Scranton Army Ammunition Plan in Scranton, PA, has added more than 200 jobs in this region since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Artillery production more than doubled, and the General Dynamics facilities in the region produce more than a third of the 155mm rounds the United States aims to send to the front lines each month. (WP, 10.06.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:  

• Russia intends to increase the financial pain for foreign companies seeking to exit its market, leaving them with only a fraction of the value of their assets. Companies that want to quit Russia will now have to accept a 60% discount on the sale value, up from 50% previously, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. The exit tax on deals will also more than double to 35% from 15%, they said. (Bloomberg, 10.11.24)
  • Two major buyers are currently in advanced negotiations to acquire Raiffeisenbank, the Russian subsidiary of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), the Kommersant business daily reported. (MT/AFP, 10.07.24)
• A St. Petersburg court ordered the freezing of $155.8 million held by JPMorgan Chase Bank due to two lawsuits filed by Russian state bank VTB. The ruling came from decisions on Oct. 8 and 9, drawing attention from Interfax on Oct. 11. (Meduza, 10.11.24)
• Unilever sold its Russian operations, including four factories, to Arnest for €520 million. The sale ended Unilever's presence in Russia, following criticism for not leaving earlier after the Ukraine invasion. Arnest has previously acquired other Western assets in Russia at discounted rates. (FT, 10.10.24)
• More than half a billion euros in frozen Russian assets held by Dutch banks and other financial institutions appear to have been released, De Telegraaf reported. Such a release is made possible by granting payment exemptions or suspension of sanctions for the company owners. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)
• Russia is proposing changes to cross-border payments conducted among BRICS countries aimed at circumventing the global financial system, as the heavily penalized country seeks to sanctions-proof its own economy. The alternatives include developing a network of commercial banks that can conduct such transactions in local currencies as well as establishing direct links between central banks. (Bloomberg, 10.11.24)
  • Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. will stop handling any transactions involving Russia as it moves to cut exposure to the nation hit with global sanctions. Singapore’s second-largest lender has told customers, including private bank clients, in recent weeks that the restrictions will kick in from Nov. 1, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
  • Russian exporters are facing mounting liquidity challenges amid delays in receiving payments from foreign banks fearful of falling foul of U.S. sanctions. While companies aren’t missing payrolls and other obligations, daily spending is increasingly difficult to plan because of unpredictable cash flows, according to executives at five major commodities producers, speaking on condition of anonymity as the information is sensitive. That’s adding to pressures on their cash reserves, the people said, particularly as overnight borrowing costs on domestic and foreign currencies have surged above 20% and there’s little or no availability of the yuan, the main foreign-exchange currency in Russia now. (Bloomberg, 10.10.24)
• The European Union gave preliminary backing to a non-refundable loan package for Ukraine of up to €35 billion ($38.3 billion) backed by immobilized Russian central bank assets as it seeks to sustain Kyiv’s war efforts. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
• The U.K. sanctioned Russian forces that it said were involved in using chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense troops and their commander, Igor Kirillov, were sanctioned over the “widespread use of riot control agents and multiple reports of the use of the toxic choking agent chloropicrin,” the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said in a statement Oct. 8. (Bloomberg, 10.08.24)
• International sanctions lists contain mistakes in key identifying data of Sergey Korolev, deputy head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). The EU and Swiss sanctions list the incorrect date of birth of Korolev. Almost all other sanctions lists don’t include the most likely spelling of his name or surname. Both of Korolev’s children have attended summer English courses, known as the Pilgrims Course, taking place at the prestigious Harrow School in London. Korolev's daughter can also be seen in the 2016 and 2018 photo reports of the summer programs at an American school in Switzerland. (Kyiv Post, 10.03.24)
• The European Union is expected to impose sanctions on Oct. 14, targeting individuals and organizations involved in Iran's transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. This marks the first set of sanctions linked to these transfers, following warnings to Iran against supplying advanced weaponry to Russia for the war in Ukraine. The sanctions will include airlines and companies linked to the missile transfers (Reuters, 10.11.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Western diplomats in Kyiv have sensed that Zelenskyy has become more open to beginning negotiations with Russia, even as Moscow’s forces occupy more than 20% of Ukraine and are unlikely to cede any territory they currently control. For example, Zelenskyy has said that Russia will be invited to the next peace summit that Ukraine plans to organize, though when that will take place remains unclear. (WP, 10.10.24)
  • Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied reports that it was ready to cede territory to Russia, calling such suggestions a sign of weakness and reaffirming its commitment to restoring full territorial integrity. (RBC.ua, 10.11.24)
• Ukraine’s allies are detecting that Zelenskyy may be getting ready to adopt a more flexible approach as they look at ways to help bring an end to Russia’s war, according to officials close to NATO. Zelenskyy this week again ruled out “bargaining” over Ukrainian sovereignty or territory. But with war-battered Ukraine approaching its third full winter of the war and Western support showing signs of flagging with no end to the conflict in sight, Ukrainian officials have signaled that they’re prepared to recognize that an endgame should come into play, the officials said. (Bloomberg, 10.08.24)
  • Zelenskyy said this week he aims to end the war by 2025 and guarantee that Russian aggression does not recur. He presented this plan at a press conference before meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. (RBC.ua, 10.11.24)
• The mood in Washington has shifted in recent months as Russia has made advances on the battlefield. There is a widespread sense that a Harris administration would ultimately be in favor of negotiations and winding down the war, however difficult it might be to provide the requisite security guarantees to ensure Ukraine’s survival. (FT, 10.08.24)
  • Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris declined to say if she would support Ukraine’s push to join NATO if elected, but vowed she would insist Kyiv’s leaders were part of any U.S. negotiation with Putin over ending the ongoing conflict. Harris said she would not meet “bilaterally” with Putin “without Ukraine.” “Ukraine must have a say in the future of Ukraine,” Harris added. (Bloomberg, 10.08.24, FT, 10.08.24)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban insisted that Ukraine can’t win its war against Russia on the battlefield when he answered questions from international journalists at a press conference in Strasbourg for two hours on Oct. 8. "If you simply can't win this war on the battlefield, then you have to negotiate and save human lives. I am convinced that it cannot be decided on the battlefield, so the strategy the EU is following is not the right strategy," he asserted. (BNE, 10.09.24)
  • Ursula von der Leyen lashed out at Orbán for supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine. “There are still some who blame this war not on the invader but on the invaded. Not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom,” she said. She also said Hungary should join EU countries that had stopped buying Russian gas and oil. “Russia has proven time and again, it is simply not a reliable supplier. So there can be no more excuses,” she said. (FT, 10.08.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Putin is unwilling to engage in peace talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite Germany's readiness for dialogue. Baerbock criticized Putin's focus on war and destruction, noting that he has even refused a phone conversation with Scholz. The last direct communication between the two leaders took place at the end of 2022. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• The second "peace summit" will not take place in November, said the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Daria Zarivna. (Istories, 10.08.24)
• Dmitry Medvedev speculated on what Putin might tell Donald Trump regarding the conflict in Ukraine if Trump, as a U.S. presidential candidate, calls Putin to negotiate. Medvedev suggested that Putin could demand Ukraine's capitulation and ensure it does not join NATO. This comment was a hypothetical response to U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson's statement that Trump might tell Putin "enough is enough" if he wins the presidency. (News.ru, 10.11.24)
• Russia's Levada Center² has released the results of a September 2024 poll on Russians' views of the war against Ukraine. It shows 76% of Russian support the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. At the same time, 47% believe the war has generated more damage than benefits, while 28% hold the opposite view. Some 54% of respondents favor an end to hostilities and the launch of peace talks, while 39% prefer continuing the war. That said, 71% believe Russia should refrain from making “certain concessions” for the sake of reaching a peace accord. Vast majorities oppose “concessions,” such as returning annexed territories to Kyiv or its membership in NATO, according to Levada’s September poll. (RM, 10.11.24) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO defense ministers will meet to reconsider the alliance's strategy toward Russia, recognizing that previous agreements, such as the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, are outdated. The new approach, prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, aims to be finalized by the 2025 NATO summit. (Euromaidan, 10.11.24)
• According to a new book, “War,” by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward:
  • Biden's early decisions, which were sometimes in conflict with the judgments of his closest advisers, shaped the course of the Ukraine war. Foremost was his public vow that Washington would not commit troops to the conflict, which took a key bargaining chip off the table but laid down a marker for the American public wary of new foreign entanglements. Biden, according to Woodward, felt past Russian aggression had been badly mismanaged by his predecessors, including the one he had served, Barack Obama. "Barack never took Putin seriously," Biden told a close friend. “They fucked up in 2014,” Biden said to a friend, according to Woodward. “That’s why we are here. We fucked it up. Barack never took Putin seriously.” Biden added, “We did nothing. We gave Putin a license to continue!” Biden was angry: “Well, I’m revoking his fucking license!” (WP, 10.08.24, CNN, 10.08.24)
• In the lead-up to Russia’s invasion, the U.S. had obtained a treasure trove of intelligence, which showed “conclusively” in October 2021 that Putin had plans to invade Ukraine with 175,000 troops. “It was an astonishing intelligence coup from the crown jewels of U.S. intelligence, including a human source inside the Kremlin,” Woodward reports. Human sources are among the most sensitive in the intelligence world. (CNN, 10.08.24)
  • In January 2022, Biden seemed to undercut American resolve by raising the possibility that Russia might seek only a "minor incursion." His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, had to do damage control with counterparts in nine NATO countries, in addition to Japan. (WP, 10.08.24)
  • Despite repeated warnings, Zelenskyy dismissed the idea that Putin would actually invade, even after Harris told him during a February 2022 meeting at the Munich Security Conference that an invasion was imminent. Harris told Zelenskyy he needed to “start thinking about things like having a succession plan in place to run the country if you are captured or killed or cannot govern.” After the meeting, Woodward writes, Harris said she was worried it might be the last time they ever saw him. (CNN, 10.08.24)
  • “That fucking Putin,” Biden said to advisers in the Oval Office not long after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Woodward’s book. “Putin is evil. We are dealing with the epitome of evil.” (CNN, 10.08.24)
• The militaries of Poland and the Baltic states will give an "immediate response" if a military conflict with Russia begins. Chief of the General Staff of Poland Rajmund Andrzejczak said that one of the targets that would be struck at the beginning of the conflict will be St. Petersburg. Putin said in March that Russia has no aggressive intentions toward European countries. He also called plans for a military clash between Russia and NATO "nonsense." (Kommersant, 10.11.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian and Chinese navy ships have carried out a joint patrol in the northeast of the Pacific Ocean, the Russian military said. The vessels "proceeded with maneuvers" to practice anti-submarine tactics, it said. The patrol came after the two countries held joint military drills, as the allies deepen ties that have seen NATO dub Beijing an "enabler" of Moscow's war in Ukraine. In early September, China said that the two sides would participate in a joint maritime patrol and that China would also participate in Russia's "Ocean-2024" strategic exercise. In July, the two countries held joint drills in the waters and airspace around Zhanjiang, a city in southern China's Guangdong province. (MT/AFP, 10.08.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Oct. 11 called U.S. actions in Asia "destructive," accusing Washington of being behind a "militarization" of Japan and attempting to turn other countries against Russia and China. (MT/AFP, 10.11.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Lavrov said: “Washington and its NATO allies provide political, military and financial support to Kyiv so that the war would go on. They are discussing authorizing the AFU to use Western long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. ‘Playing with fire’ in this way may lead to dangerous consequences. As stated by President Putin, we will take adequate decisions based on our understanding of the threats posed by the West. It is up to you to make conclusions.” (Newsweek, 10.07.24)
• Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s outgoing ambassador to the U.S., said: "It is noteworthy that even the American military started to contemplate a nuclear conflict." "At the same time, they mistakenly believe that this catastrophe will only affect Europe and Russia," he added. "This is extremely short-sighted. America will not be able to sit it out across the ocean. A global nuclear catastrophe would affect everyone." (Newsweek, 10.10.24)
• In his new book Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward writes Biden’s national security team at one point in Fall 2022 believed there was a real threat, a 50% chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to CNN. That was a striking assessment that had skyrocketed up from 5% and then 10%, Woodward reports. (CNN, 10.08.24, WP, 10.08.24)
  • The book recounts a tense phone call between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart in October 2022. “If you did this [use a nuclear weapon], all the restraints that we have been operating under in Ukraine would be reconsidered,” Austin said to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Woodward. “This would isolate Russia on the world stage to a degree you Russians cannot fully appreciate.”  “I don’t take kindly to being threatened,” Shoigu responded. “Mr. Minister,” Austin said, according to Woodward, “I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.” (CNN, 10.08.24)
  • In 2021, Biden and his advisers agreed that Putin’s invasion plan was “dead serious,” but it was still hard for them — and their allies — to believe it. “This is what Putin plans to do,” CIA Director Bill Burns said to Biden, according to Woodward. “This would be so crazy,” Biden responded. “Jesus Christ!” Biden said. “Now I’ve got to deal with Russia swallowing Ukraine?” Biden confronted Putin with the intelligence twice in December 2021, first in a video conference and then in what Woodward describes as a “hot 50-minute call” that became so heated that at one point Putin “raised the risk of nuclear war in a threatening way.” Biden responded by reminding Putin that “it’s impossible to win” a nuclear war. (CNN, 10.08.24)
  • In October 2022, the Russians requested a call with the Pentagon. During the call with Austin, Russian defense minister Shoigu dramatically claimed the Ukrainians were planning to use a “dirty bomb” — a false story the U.S. believed the Kremlin was pushing as a pretext to deploy a nuclear weapon. “We don’t believe you,” Austin said firmly in response, according to Woodward. “We don’t see any indications of this, and the world will see through this.” “Don’t do it,” he said to Shoigu.  “I understand,” Shoigu replied. (CNN, 10.08.24)
• As prime minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson tried to dissuade Putin from launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as he shared in his memoir “Unleashed,” reported by The Times on Oct. 3. Johnson said Putin expressed serious concern about NATO missiles being launched at Moscow. "No one was proposing to put NATO missiles on Ukrainian soil. But Putin kept coming back to this issue. He said it wouldn't take long for a missile launched from Ukraine to reach Moscow," Johnson is quoted as saying by The Times. Johnson recalled that at one point, Putin "made a kind of creepily joking remark about the risk of a miscalculation—an unintended nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO." (Nv.UA , 10.11.24)
• The Japanese group Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki who advocate for the abolition of nuclear weapons, has been awarded the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. (RFE/RL, 10.11.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Russia's Foreign Ministry said a decision to remove the Taliban from a list of terrorist organizations had been "taken at the highest level," the TASS state news agency reported. The decision needs to be followed up with various legal procedures in order to make it a reality, Putin's special representative on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, was quoted as saying on Oct. 4. (RFE/RL, 10.06.24)
• Ukraine’s Security Service has detained a participant of the international terrorist organization Islamic State in Kyiv. He had been wanted by Interpol and was hiding from justice for 7 years, according to the press service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU). It is reported that the perpetrator turned out to be a citizen of one of the Central Asian countries who illegally arrived in Ukraine using a foreign passport of a false identity even before the full-scale invasion. (RBC.ua, 10.11.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russia suffered major digital outages for a second day on Oct. 8 after hackers targeted Russia's court information system, taking down court websites and claiming to have wiped court documents and decisions in the system's database. The hackers, who called themselves the "BO Team," posted a message with an obscenity declaring that the attack was made to mark Putin's 72nd birthday Oct. 7, the same day a massive attack on Russia's online state media channels occurred. According to pro-Kremlin media outlet Gazeta.ru, that attack took down Russian state television stations Rossiya-1, Rossiya-24, Rossiya Kultura, Karusel and around 80 regional television and radio stations. (WP, 10.08.24)
• Russia’s move to ban Discord, an instant messaging platform popular among gamers and programmers, sparked a backlash from military bloggers who say it’s used by drone operators at the front in the war on Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Moscow’s use of the tankers sanctioned for their involvement in the Russian oil trade is accelerating, with close to one-third of the blacklisted vessels back at work. At least 21 of the 72 tankers sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.K. Treasury or the European Union in the past year have loaded a total of 24 cargoes of Russian oil since they were designated in response to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.10.24)
• Russia’s Lukoil covertly acquired a "shadow fleet" of over 25 vessels for transporting oil despite sanctions. These ships, bought through offshore companies and intermediaries, have enabled Moscow to continue its oil exports, raising concerns over sanctions enforcement and environmental risks. The FT’s investigation shows how Russia’s Lukoil used its shipping arm to finance a 74-year-old British accountant called John Ormerod to acquire the Canis Power and at least 24 other second-hand tankers between December 2022 and August 2023, at a total cost of more than $700mn.  Together, the 25 ships have transported some 120mn barrels of oil from Russia since they were originally acquired by Ormerod. At a conservative estimate of $60 a barrel that would amount to $7.2bn in exports. It is not alleged that the transactions have broken any laws. (FT, 10.10.24)
• Russia’s “dark fleet” of tankers for carrying liquefied natural gas has picked up activity in recent months, highlighting the country’s resolve to get the super-chilled fuel to market in defiance of western sanctions. Since early August, eight shipments are suspected to have been made from Arctic LNG 2, a flagship project crucial to raising Russia’s presence in the sector, despite western sanctions on both the project and vessels carrying the fuel produced at the facility. (FT, 10.08.24)
• Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Oct. 7 told Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico that Kyiv will not extend a gas-transit deal with Russia when it expires at year's end, a move likely to increase tensions between the EU and NATO member and Ukraine, which aspires to join both organizations. (RFE/RL, 10.07.24)
• Natural gas prices in U.S. are expected to remain low this winter, thanks to an oversupply caused by last year's warm winter and a surge in renewable energy production. Households using natural gas will see only slight increases in heating costs, while those using propane and heating oil may even pay less compared to last year. (WSJ, 10.10.24)

Climate change:

• A new report by Rosgidromet, Russia's federal service for hydrometeorology, has found that the country is warming at twice the rate of the global average, reports Vedomosti on Oct. 2. The data shows that Russia's territory has seen an increase in average temperatures of around 0.5°C per decade, nearly double the global rate of warming. This alarming trend is expected to intensify in the coming years, with both short- and long-term consequences for the country. (BNE, 10.02.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Oct. 11 he heard "nothing new" from Lavrov as they attended the East Asia Summit. Blinken said he had no direct contact in their rare encounter at the summit in Laos but that they did not leave during each other's closed-door remarks. "I think it's safe to say that we heard each other. I didn't hear anything new, unfortunately, about the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine," Blinken said. (AFP, 10.11.24)
  • “The final declaration could not be adopted due to persistent attempts, primarily by the United States, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand, to give this document a purely politicized character,” said Lavrov at an Oct. 11 press conference following the 19th East Asian Summit in Laos. (Kommersant, 10.11.24)
• The U.S. intelligence community “expects foreign influence actors to continue their campaigns by calling into question the validity of the election’s results after the polls close,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in an update on election threats. “They will likely take advantage of such an opportunity to use similar tactics in a post-election period to undermine trust in the integrity of the election, election processes and further exacerbate divisions among Americans. Russia and Iran are focused on the presidential vote, though on opposite sides, with the Russians favoring Donald Trump and the Iranians favoring Harris. (NYT, 10.08.24)
• Putin signed a decree Oct. 10 relieving Anatoly Antonov from his post as Moscow’s ambassador to the United States amid historic lows in U.S.-Russia relations. Antonov had headed the Russian diplomatic mission in Washington since 2017 and returned to Russia over the weekend. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• A new book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward:
  • Reveals new details about Trump’s private conversations with Putin – and a secret shipment of Covid-19 testing equipment Trump sent to the Russian president for his personal use during the height of the pandemic. “Please don’t tell anybody you sent these to me,” Putin said to Trump, according to Woodward. “I don’t care,” Trump replied. “Fine.” In one scene, Woodward recounts a moment at Mar-a-Lago where Trump tells a senior aide to leave the room so “he could have what he said was a private phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.” Citing a Trump aide, Woodward reports that there have been “maybe as many as seven” calls between Trump and Putin since Trump left the White House in 2021. Trump has denied those reports. (CNN, 10.08.24)
    • The Kremlin confirmed that Trump while in office sent Putin Covid-19 testing devices during the height of the pandemic, as recounted in a new book by journalist Bob Woodward. “But about the phone calls — it’s not true,” Peskov said. (Bloomberg, 10.09.24)
    • Harris sought to capitalize on reporting from a new book by Woodward that alleges Trump sent Putin Covid-19 testing devices. “That is just the most recent, stark example of who Donald Trump is,” Harris said Oct. 8 in an interview on The Howard Stern Show. The vice president said people were “scrambling to get these kits” during the pandemic, adding, “And this guy who is president of the United States is sending them to Russia, to a murderous dictator, for his personal use?” (Bloomberg, 10.08.24)
• Russian prosecutors have asked for a seven-year sentence in the trial of a U.S. citizen accused of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine against Russia, Russian news agencies reported on Oct. 5. Prosecutors asked the court to take 72-year-old Stephen Hubbard’s age into account and said he has admitted guilt, according to Interfax. (RFE/RL, 10.06.24)
• Two U.S. citizens were sentenced to lengthy prison terms in Russia on Oct. 7, fueling concerns over the political motivations behind their detentions amid heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington. The cases of Stephen Hubbard, 72, and Robert Gilman, a 30-year-old former U.S. Marine, have drawn intense scrutiny, with many viewing their cases as part of a broader pattern of Americans being used as leverage in the ongoing geopolitical stand-off between the two nations. Hubbard was sentenced by the Moscow City Court on Oct. 7 to six years and 10 months in prison on charges of being a mercenary. Separately on Oct. 7, a court in Voronezh, about 500 kilometers south of Moscow, sentenced Gilman to seven years and one month in prison for assaulting a prison official and a state investigator. (RFE/RL, 10.07.24)
• A Russian court Oct. 11 ordered the arrest in absentia of CNN journalist Nick Paton Walsh for reporting from Ukrainian-held territory in Russia's Kursk region. (AFP, 10.11.24)
• The United States should “redirect” its efforts toward investigating the criminal sex ring allegations against rapper Diddy instead of seeking to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24) Whataboutism?

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The government expects oil and gas revenues, which were the main fuel for Russia’s military machine in 2022, to decrease over the coming years. In 2025, they expect to raise 10.94 trillion rubles ($115 billion at current rates), 370 billion rubles down on the plans for this year. And by 2027, Moscow expects energy revenues to have dropped further, to 9.77 trillion rubles. Overall, the government expects tax revenues to increase to 29.4 trillion rubles in 2025, up 18.4% from 2024. It then expects more modest increases of 6.5% and 6.85% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. (Bell, 10.05.24)
• Luxury housing sales in the Russian capital reached a record-setting 174 billion rubles ($1.8 billion) in January-September 2024, the Vedomosti business daily reported Oct. 8, citing research by real estate company NF Group. The 1,270 luxury apartments sold in Moscow so far this year were up from 860 sales worth 110 billion rubles ($1.14 billion) in January-September last year and 690 sales worth 75 billion rubles ($780.6 million) in the first nine months of 2022. (MT/AFP, 10.08.24)
• At least 49 Russian citizens are currently being held in mental hospitals as a form of punishment against opposition and other activists, the human rights group Memorial said Oct. 10. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• A 16-year-old Russian schoolboy considered the country’s youngest political prisoner said he has been subjected to beatings by his cellmates in the Moscow detention center where he’s currently being held, the independent Mediazona news website reported Oct. 8. Arseniy Turbin, who is serving five years in a juvenile colony for allegedly attempting to join the Freedom of Russia Legion, said that he was being beaten by a cellmate named Azizbek. (MT/AFP, 10.08.24)
• Ilya Yashin, a Russian opposition figure who was exchanged in a historic prisoner swap between Russia and the West in August, says Russia needs a new federal treaty that allows for regions to secede from the federation. (RFE/RL, 10.08.24)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has declared a “blood feud” against three federal lawmakers from neighboring North Caucasus republics in his first comments on last month’s deadly shooting outside the Moscow headquarters of Russia’s largest online retailer Wildberries. Kadyrov has vowed to help Vladislav Bakalchuk, the estranged husband of Wildberries CEO Tatiana Kim—Russia’s wealthiest woman—to return his wife and block the merger of their e-commerce giant with the smaller outdoor advertising group Russ. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• The Levada Center’s October 2024 poll shows that 62% of Russians still receive news from TV, though its dominance is shrinking. Some 37% use VKontakte, while Telegram grew to 42% for younger groups. YouTube dropped to 18% due to blockages, and Telegram gained popularity as a trusted source, especially among younger people. WhatsApp remains the leading messaging app (63%), with Telegram close behind (57%). Discord is only used by 2%. Trust in TV has declined to 38%, while trust in Telegram channels rose to 24%. (RM, 10.11.24)³

Defense and aerospace:

• Over the next three years, Russia’s Defense Ministry could recruit at least 225,000 contract soldiers, according to estimates from the independent outlet iStories, which reviewed the government’s draft federal budget for 2025–2027. (Meduza, 10.04.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The Lefortovo Court of Moscow has remanded in custody the Deputy Director General of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) Alexander Popelyukh. According to Kommersant, security officials conducted investigative actions in the corporation's central Moscow office. They interrogated two high-ranking managers, including Popelyukh. (Kommersant, 10.10.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Data from a Sept. 26–Oct. 2, 2024, Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Center survey show that like Americans, significant shares of Russians (up to 42%) say they do not know enough about the conflict in the Middle East to express their opinions. A clear majority say Israel has gone too far in its military actions in Gaza and is not justified (59%, 15% justified, 26% unsure). Russians also tend to believe Hamas’ actions on Oct. 7, 2023, were more unjustified (40%) than justified (18%), though 42 % are unsure. Half of Russians (49%) favor the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while 14 % oppose it and nearly four in 10 (37%) are unsure. (Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 10.07.24)
• Russian spies are on a “mission to generate mayhem on British streets” while Iran has been fomenting lethal plots against the U.K. at “an unprecedented pace and scale,” the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence service warned. The number of aggressive state actions investigated by MI5 had “shot up” by 48% in the previous 12 months, and the agency had responded to 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots since January 2022, according to MI5 director-general Ken McCallum. McCallum said that there has been a "staggering rise" in the number of such attacks recently, coordinated by Russia's GRU military intelligence agency. (FT, 10.08.24, WSJ, 10.08.24)
• Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, nicknamed the “Merchant of Death,” has made a comeback to the arms trading business and is seeking to broker sales of small arms to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants. (MT/AFP, 10.07.24, WSJ, 10.07.24)
• A Russian court on Oct. 4 placed a Dutch national under arrest for "violence towards police personnel," a charge that carries up to 10 years in prison. (MT/AFP, 10.05.24)
• The bodies of Wagner Group mercenaries killed in fighting in Mali this summer have been returned to Russia, the state-run TASS news agency reported Oct. 9, citing a Russian officers’ organization. (MT/AFP, 10.09.24)
• A new investigation by the Associated Press details how Russia has lured dozens of young African women to produce drones for its invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)

Ukraine:

• The Ukrainian parliament approved a draft law to increase taxes on individuals, companies and banks starting from this year to cover increased military and defense needs. The bill increases a tax on personal income, raising the rate to 5%, from 1.5%. It also retroactively doubles taxes on bank profits, to 50% for this year, and raises taxes on the profits of other financial institutions to 25%, from 18%, among other provisions. Legislators backed the tax increase bill on the second reading Oct. 10. The tax increase approved on Oct. 10 will help to fund a $12 billion military spending increase for this year. (Bloomberg, 10.10.24, NYT, 10.11.24)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov appointed Serhii Melnyk and Serhii Boev as deputy ministers. Melnyk will focus on education, medical, and humanitarian sectors, while Boev will handle European integration. Umerov also announced the creation of supervisory boards to oversee defense procurement, aiming to enhance transparency, minimize corruption, and integrate international standards. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has asked the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to investigate a food supplier for potentially falsifying documents after substandard canned pork was provided to the Armed Forces. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• Ukrainian police are investigating the former rector of the National Aviation University, Vladimir Isayenko, for allegedly embezzling 1.3 million hryvnias (about $35,000 USD). Between 2018 and 2020, he reportedly instructed university staff to grant him unauthorized bonuses. The Ministry of Education audit uncovered these irregularities, and Isayenko could face up to 12 years in prison along with asset confiscation (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• Ukrainian authorities opened an investigation into General Serhiy Shaikhet, head of the Migration Police Department, after journalists revealed his use of a $1 million apartment and misuse of a police car. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.11.24)
• Zelenskyy stressed the importance of European unity as he took part in a summit in Croatia with Balkan leaders on Oct. 9. If Europe is not united, it cannot expect peace, Zelenskyy said, speaking in Dubrovnik at the start of the third Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit." (RFE/RL, 10.09.24)
• Trump’s distrust of Ukraine began during his 2016 campaign, fueled by claims that Ukraine supported Hillary Clinton and Democrats. This skepticism deepened after a 2017 meeting with Putin, who portrayed Ukraine as corrupt and unworthy of U.S. support. Putin’s influence helped shape Trump’s foreign policy, which later surfaced during Trump’s first impeachment. As Trump campaigns for the 2024 election, his stance on Ukraine remains ambiguous, with potential consequences for U.S.-Russia relations. (NYT, 10.10.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Putin on Oct. 8 announced an agreement that will see Russian border guards withdraw from the Armenian-Iranian frontier checkpoint as of January 1, 2025. (RFE/RL, 10.08.24)
• President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Oct. 10 to extend Russia’s visa-free regime for Georgian citizens. (MT/AFP, 10.10.24)
• The European Union will allocate a record €1.8 billion ($2 billion) to Moldova to support the country’s plan to join the bloc. (Bloomberg, 10.10.24)
• A draft resolution from the European Parliament warns Russia to stop its "provocations and attempts to destabilize" Moldova ahead of a crucial presidential election and referendum. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu is running for reelection on Oct. 20 and Moldovans will also vote the same day in a referendum on joining the 27-member European Union. (RFE/RL, 10.08.24)
• More than 1,800 state workers have been mobilized in the southern Tajik region of Khatlon to go door-to-door to warn people about joining religious extremist groups. (RFE/RL, 10.09.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. An NYT 03.09.24 article by David Sanger said that in October 2022, the CIA assessed that “under a singular scenario in which Ukrainian forces decimated Russian defensive lines and looked as if they might try to retake Crimea — a possibility that seemed imaginable that fall — the likelihood of nuclear use might rise to 50% or even higher.”
2. The Levada Center remains the most respected of Russia’s independent pollsters despite increasing constraints on such activities in authoritarian Russia.
3. Summarized with the help of ChatGPT.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.