The authors write:

• Our study provides initial evidence that, overall, the public in Kazakhstan is less supportive of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine than the public in Kyrgyzstan. On the surface, this result is not necessarily surprising. Despite continued strong ties with Russia, the government of Kazakhstan has long pursued a multi-vector foreign policy that has sought to balance between competing world powers. Russia’s invasion may also have tapped into long-standing fears that Kazakhstan will someday become a target of Russian imperialism due to its shared border with Russia and large ethnic Russian minority population. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, is more economically dependent upon Russia: Russia is one of Kyrgyzstan’s most important trade and economic partners, and remittances from Russia make up a substantial portion of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP.
• The study reveals that ethnicity, language preference, and media use play important but nuanced roles in shaping attitudes toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan consistently express more pro-Russian attitudes and hold views more consistent with Russian narratives surrounding the war than their counterparts from titular ethnic groups. Russian language preference, meanwhile, is less consistently related to pro-Russian attitudes and varies by issue area and political context, a finding that underscores the importance of disaggregating various measures of ethnolinguistic identity. Finally, while Russian media use in both countries is generally associated with pro-Russian attitudes, the impact of traditional Russian media is diminishing due to the shift toward internet-based news sources.

Read the full article on PONARS Eurasia website.

The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors. Photo by US Department of State shared under a United States government work licence.