5 Things to Know

• Iranian drones leave Ukraine without power: Millions of Ukrainians across the country are facing shortages of electricity, water and heat—and the prospect of a desolate winter without basic services—as Russia bombards civilian targets and infrastructure, the New York Times reports. Key to the latest onslaught have been Iranian “kamikaze” drones that left at least four civilians dead in Kyiv early this week, according to the FT. The U.S. says Iranian trainers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps are in Crimea helping Russian troops troubleshoot, multiple outlets write.
• Military hot spots: Ukrainian and Western military planners are keeping a close eye on Belarus, where thousands of Russian troops are gathering, but the main focal point right now is near long-occupied Kherson, a strategic city on the Dnieper (a.k.a. Dnipro) River, where Russia and Ukraine are girding for battle. Ukrainian forces bombarded Russian positions in the surrounding region Oct. 21, targeting resupply routes, AP reports. Russian-installed officials have been feverishly fortifying the city and trying to ferry out thousands of civilians. Ukraine’s president has warned that Russian troops have mined a large hydroelectric dam about 60 miles upstream from Kherson, preparing to unleash devastating flooding and then blame Kyiv; pro-Russian officials have levied comparable allegations against Ukraine, Reuters and others write. If Russian forces decide to flee eastward across the river—as comments from their new top general have led some analysts to believe—then flooding the area could stop a Ukrainian advance, The Bell notes.
• Putin imposes martial law amid mobilization backlash: Russia’s president on Oct. 19 introduced martial law in four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine and less severe restrictions across Russia, giving authorities a freer hand to tighten security and commandeer resources, especially in areas close to the fighting. His highly unpopular mobilization, announced a month ago, is likely to weigh on the economy for months to come, has caused a spike in stress and fear and pushed the country’s population decline to a historic precipice, Bloomberg reports.
• Nuclear tensions in the Arctic with a Cold War spy-game twist: Russia stepped up military posturing in the Arctic this week ahead of NATO’s long planned nuclear drills in northwestern Europe, the Barents Observer writes. Meanwhile, Norwegian officials have detained at least seven Russians in recent weeks—including the son of a once close associate of Putin’s—for flying drones or taking pictures near sensitive areas, according to The Washington Post, prompting an investigation by the domestic intelligence service and warnings that there could be more arrests.
• Russia Inc. 2.0? It’s worth noting that two of this week’s big developing stories—the illicit drone photography in northern Norway and some sanctions-busting smuggling of military technologies for use by Russian forces—involved Western authorities detaining the 40-something sons of current or former senior Russian officials. A trend to watch?

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine's energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, said Oct. 21 he saw no signs of progress toward a deal involving Russia, Ukraine and the U.N. nuclear watchdog on resolving the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied by Russian troops since March. (Reuters, 10.21.22)
  • Ukrainian technicians working to ensure the safe operation of the ZNPP were told earlier this week by occupation authorities that they have until Oct. 20 to choose sides in the escalating struggle for control of the reactor complex. The date seems to have come and gone without incident. Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Oct. 14 that the plant’s employees had come under “unacceptable pressure” to sign contracts with the state-owned Russian nuclear energy company, Rosatom, which would flip their allegiance from Ukraine to Russia. (WSJ, 10.17.22, RM, 10.21.22, NYT, 10.15.22)
  • The ZNPP was operating on emergency diesel generators Oct. 17 after Russian shelling cut off its external power supply, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company, Energoatom, said. Although the plant's six reactors have been shut down for weeks, they need a constant supply of electricity to keep the nuclear fuel inside cool and prevent a meltdown. (Reuters, 10.17.22)
  • Energoatom accused Russia on Oct. 18 of "kidnapping" two senior staff at the ZNPP—the power station's head of information technology, Oleh Kostyukov, and Oleh Oshek, an assistant to the plant's director. Energoatom said “nothing is known of their whereabouts or condition.” Energoatom chief Petro Kotin told AFP on Oct. 19 that about 50 ZNPP employees were in Russian captivity. (Reuters, 10.18.22, France24, 10.19.22)
• A senior Ukrainian official and Energoatom said Oct. 20 that Russian forces have started to leave Enerhodar, the city abutting the ZNPP , amid conflicting accounts of the city’s status. The situation at the nuclear plant, for the moment, appeared to be unchanged. Dmytro Orlov, Enerhodar’s exiled mayor, said Russian soldiers remained at the plant. (NYT, 10.20.22)
  • Energoatom said the departing Russian troops, who had been quartered near the ZNPP, were leaving in vehicles loaded with looted property. Images on social media showed Russian army trucks and private vehicles with Ukrainian license plates carrying televisions, refrigerators and carpets. (Kyiv Post, 10.20.22)
• Jill Hruby, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, and Frank Rose, NNSA principal deputy administrator, completed a trip to Kazakhstan on Oct. 5. (NNSA, 10.14.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• As Russia gets more “desperate” in Ukraine, it is "exploring arrangements with North Korea” in search of “the wares that it is unable to produce or to acquire through other means,” the State Department said Oct. 20. John Parachini, a senior researcher at RAND, told Newsweek the remarks are another case in which the U.S. is releasing intelligence to try to thwart what Russia is doing. "What [Russia] will do with North Korea is not clear, although there's a lot of suggestions that it would be artillery and short-range missiles," Parachini said. Since Russia's production lines seem limited, North Korea could potentially provide weapons in exchange for food, fuel or something else. (RM, 10.20.22, Newsweek, 10.21.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Negotiations for the U.S. and Iran to reenter an agreement on the production of nuclear fuel may be fatally stalled, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre suggested Oct. 17. “We don’t see a deal coming together anytime soon,” she said. State Department spokesman Ned Price acknowledged last week that a new Iran deal “is not our focus right now.” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell likewise said he did not expect progress in negotiations over reviving the deal. “That's a pity because we were very, very close," Borrell told reporters Oct. 17. (Yahoo News, 10.17.22, Reuters, 10.17.22)
• Britain has joined France in viewing the Iranian supply of armed drones to Russia for devastating use in Ukraine as a breach of Iran’s obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal. There is no immediate plan to refer the issue to the U.N., but diplomatic sources said the issue was live. (Guardian, 10.17.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukrainians across the country face shortages of electricity, water and heat as Russia’s bombardment of civilian targets and infrastructure threatens millions of people with the prospect of a desolate winter without basic services. Since Oct. 10, the attacks have destroyed 30% of Ukraine’s power stations and caused “massive blackouts,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said Oct. 18. He met with senior officials to discuss security and emergency measures at power supply facilities. (NYT, 10.18.22, RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
  • The national electric utility urged residents in central Ukraine on Oct. 20 to “urgently reduce” energy consumption and charge devices in preparation for outages. (WP, 10.20.22)
  • Russia's missile and drone attacks on power stations and other civilian infrastructure in Ukraine are "acts of pure terror" that amount to war crimes, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Oct. 19. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
  • o “The big effect is definitely economic exhaustion, attacking Ukraine’s electricity availability going into the winter and also keeping the war nationwide,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA. “They’re essentially using these drones as sort of a poor man’s precision guided weapon against Ukrainian infrastructure.” (CNN, 10.17.22)
• Prior to the latest assault on civilian infrastructure, Ukraine’s economy had slowly adapted to war—and seemed to be growing again. Odessa’s ports are operating, albeit at less than normal capacity. The grain harvest should be 65-70 million tons this year, down a third from pre-war levels but a healthy total given the circumstances. In August just as many people entered Ukraine from the EU as went the other way. The share of firms working at more than half capacity reached around 80% in September, up from 58% in May. Hundreds of businesses have relocated to safer parts of the country. Adept policymaking has helped avoid a financial crisis. (Economist, 10.18.22)
• In Kherson, a southern Ukrainian region Moscow claims to have annexed last month after staging a sham referendum, Russian proxies this week began relocating civilians in apparent anticipation of a major fight for the regional capital. Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-installed deputy governor, said that some 15,000 people have already been moved, and Russian-backed officials have said they intend to move as many as 60,000 civilians to the eastern side of the Dnipro (Dnieper) River. “The battle for Kherson will start in the very near future,” Stremousov wrote on Telegram on Oct. 18, recommending civilians clear out to avoid the “brutal combat” ahead.  (Guardian, 10.18.22, NYT, 10.19.22, NYT, 10.20.22, RM, 10.18.22)
  • Zelensky on Oct. 20 warned that Russia was preparing a “false flag” operation to blow up a large hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka, about 60 miles upstream from Kherson, potentially flooding the strategically important city and 80 other towns and villages. He said the dam and related facilities had been mined and Russia would blame Ukraine for the resulting disaster. (NYT, 10.21.22, WP, 10.20.22)
  • In an early explanation for the evacuations, Russian-appointed governor Vladimir Saldo, echoing comments by Russia’s new commander in Ukraine, accused Ukrainian forces of planning to destroy the dam and warned of “an immediate danger of flooding.” (NYT, 10.19.22, Reuters, 10.18.22, RM, 10.18.22)
  • Russian forces have more direct access to the dam than the Ukrainians since the area has been under Russian control since early in the war, The Bell notes, adding that the only clear military advantage would be to stop a Ukrainian advance as Russian forces flee eastward across the river. [See “Military aspects” section below.] “The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a report this week, also noting that it appeared Russian forces were laying groundwork for a false-flag attack. (RM, 10.20.22, NYT, 10.21.22)
  • Pro-Russian authorities in Kherson said Oct. 15 that they had set up a hotline for civilians seeking to leave the contested area—but only if they wanted to go to Russia. The announcement built on days of calls by Russian proxy leaders for civilians to leave the area. (NYT, 10.15.22)
• Ukraine is producing new, lightweight body armor designed to protect children from shrapnel during evacuations from combat zones. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
• A center for Ukrainian refugees in Germany burned down Oct. 20 in a suspected far-right attack. The 14 refugees living in the brick and timber structure and three staff members managed to escape without injuries. (WP, 10.20.22, NYT, 10.20.22)
• The routine torture by Russian forces and their affiliates of detainees during their half-year occupation of the eastern Ukrainian city of Izyum was part of a "policy and plan," Human Rights Watch said in a statement Oct. 19. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
• The recapturing by Ukrainian fighters of much of the Kharkiv region a month ago is now revealing what life was like for thousands of people living under Russian military occupation from the early days of the war. For many there were periods of calm, but almost no food or public services. For those suspected of sympathizing with or helping the Ukrainians, it was pure hell. (NYT, 10.21.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• As of early this week, there was no longer an expectation that Russia would be able to seize significantly more ground in Ukraine: Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute said Ukraine has so dramatically turned the fight around that the outstanding question is how much more territory Ukraine will be able to take back—not whether Russia will be able to achieve its goals. (WP, 10.15.22)
• Ukraine's army, which was heavily outgunned by Russia at the start of the war, now outclasses the Russian military by almost every measure—from the sophisticated Western artillery systems it is using to pinpoint Russian targets far from the front lines to the availability and quality of the soldiers it can bring to the fight. (WP, 10.15.22)
  • The Ukrainian Defense Ministry claimed Oct. 14 that Russia began the war with 1,844 precision guided missiles—including sea-launched Kalibrs, ground-launched Iskanders and air-launched Kh-101s and Kh-555s—of which only 609 remain. Western officials said the numbers are in line with their estimates. (WP, 10.15.22)
• The Ukrainian military has a window of opportunity to make gains against Russia’s army over the next six weeks, according to American intelligence assessments, if it can continue its push in the south and the northeast before muddy ground and cloud cover force the opposing armies to pause and regroup. There is little chance Ukraine could take another huge swath of territory, as it did last month, but it may be able to retake more towns in the Donbas and potentially seize the strategic southern city of Kherson, a major prize in the war. American and Ukrainian officials say the fighting is likely to continue for months. (NYT, 10.20.22)
• The new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, gave his first major interview Oct. 18. He acknowledged that his troops were under broad pressure and faced unspecified hard choices. "The enemy continually attempts to attack the positions of Russian troops," he said, highlighting difficulties in Kupyansk and Lyman in eastern Ukraine and the area between Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih, around the northern part of the Kherson region. Some observers have interpreted his comments as an attempt to prepare the public for a possible Russian pullback from Kherson. (RM, 10.18.22, Reuters, 10.18.22, AP, 10.21.22)
• Ukrainian forces bombarded Russian positions Oct. 21 in the occupied, illegally annexed southern Kherson region, targeting resupply routes across the Dnieper (Dnipro) River, while inching closer to a full assault on one of the first urban areas Russia captured after invading, the regional capital, also called Kherson. Russian-installed officials were reported desperately trying to turn the city into a fortress. (AP, 10.21.22)
  • Russian forces in the region have been driven back by 10-20 miles in the last few weeks and are at risk of being pinned against the river’s western bank. The British Defense Ministry and the Institute for the Study of War say Russia may be preparing for a withdrawal from the region, with RFE/RL finding video evidence that Russia has been ferrying equipment to the eastern bank. [See allegations of planned dam blast in “Humanitarian impact” section above.] (Reuters, 10.18.22, WP, 10.20.22, RFE/RL, 10.20.22)
  • Pro-Russian commentators argue that the Kremlin’s strategy is to clear out civilians, consolidate forces and cut the Ukrainian army to pieces as it attacks Russian defenses in and around the city. (Kyiv Post, 10.20.22)
  • The Dnieper figures prominently in the regional battle because it serves critical functions: crossings for supplies, troops and civilians; drinking water for southern Ukraine and Crimea; and power generation. Much of the area, including the power station and a canal feeding water to Crimea, is under Russian control. (AP, 10.21.22)
• Major elements of Russia’s military leadership are “increasingly dysfunctional,” the British Defense Ministry said Oct. 19. Four of the five generals responsible for directing the Russian invasion in February have been dismissed from their posts, and there is a growing shortage of officers capable of organizing newly mobilized reservists, the ministry said. (WP, 10.19.22)
• An influx of Russian troops and a surge in military activity in Belarus is stirring unease that its autocratic leader, President Alexander Lukashenko, could take a more direct role in Moscow’s faltering war in Ukraine. On Oct. 16, Belarus’s Defense Ministry announced that the aviation component of a fresh Russian troop deployment had begun to arrive in the country, the day after ground forces started moving in. The ministry said just under 9,000 Russian troops would be stationed in Belarus as part of a "regional grouping" of forces to protect its borders. (WSJ, 10.16.22, Reuters, 10.16.22)
  • o The Ukrainian army general staff said Oct. 20 that there is a heightened chance Russian forces could launch an attack from Belarus to cut off supply routes for Western weapons and military equipment. But Latvia’s defense minister, Artis Pabriks, said Oct. 21 the assembled forces may still be too weak to make a successful new thrust south into Ukraine. (AP, 10.20.22, NYT, 10.21.22)
  • o Earlier this month, Lukashenko’s comments that Belarus must not let NATO “drag us into a war” were interpreted as showing deep unease with what Western and Ukrainian officials believe is increasing Russian pressure to send Belarusian forces to fight, which would bring immense political risks. (NYT, 10.15.22)
• Putin on Oct. 19 declared martial law in four regions of Ukraine that Moscow recently annexed but does not fully control—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The move would allow pro-Russian authorities to exercise even wider powers, including forced relocations, forced labor, restrictions on movement and confiscating property. Experts said it was the first time the Kremlin had declared martial law since World War II. (NYT, 10.19.22, The Bell, 10.19.22)
  • Additionally, Putin signed a separate decree introducing less severe restrictions and modes of alert across Russia. [See “Domestic politics” section below for details.] (Meduza, 10.20.22, MT, 10.20.22, The Bell, 10.19.22)
• At least four civilians were killed in Kyiv on Oct. 17 after a morning barrage of “kamikaze” drones, the first of three rounds of attacks that day. Hours later, Russian cruise missiles struck across the country, Ukrainian officials said, and the evening was capped off with more kamikaze drone strikes. Explosions were reported in at least two regions of western Ukraine (Vinnitsya and Khmelnitsky); Ukrainian officials also reported rocket strikes in Odesa, the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Sumy region, while drone attacks were also reported in Mykolaiv. (FT, 10.17.22, NBC, 10.17.22)
  • o Across the street from the ruined apartment building where the civilians were killed, the offices of Ukraine's energy company were also hit. The facility was probably the intended target of the strike. (BBC, 10.17.22)
  • Russian kamikaze drones hit tanks with sunflower oil at one of the terminals in the port city of Mykolaiv late Oct. 16, the city’s mayor said. (Reuters, 10.17.22)
• As Ukraine pressed ahead with a campaign to recapture territory in the country’s east, authorities said Oct. 21 that there was intense fighting near Svatove, a city in Luhansk region that has been key for Russian resupply. "A very severe situation persists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," Zelensky said Oct. 15, "the most difficult is near Bakhmut,” a wine-making and salt-mining city that Russian troops have been pummeling for weeks. (NYT, 10.21.22, AFP/MT, 10.17.22)
• Officials in two Russian regions bordering Ukraine blamed Kyiv for new strikes on their territory Oct. 18. Train traffic in the Belgorod region—an important staging ground for Russia’s invasion, which had been hit by more than a dozen explosions two days earlier—stopped temporarily after shelling damaged railway infrastructure; one man was wounded by shrapnel. In Kursk, the governor reported shelling of two villages and power outages. Kyiv has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility in the dozens of cross-border attacks reported on Russian soil since Feb. 24. (MT, 10.18.22, NYT, 10.16.22)
• Iran has sent trainers to occupied Ukraine to help Russians overcome problems with the fleet of drones that they purchased from Tehran, according to current and former U.S. officials briefed on the classified intelligence, a further signal of the growing closeness between Iran and Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The trainers, from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, are operating from a Russian military base in Crimea where many of the drones have been based. (NYT, 10.18.22, NYT, 10.20.22)
  • o The White House said Oct. 20 that the U.S. has evidence Iranian troops are “directly engaged on the ground” in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian population, though it is a “relatively small number” of personnel and “it’s the Russians who are doing the piloting.” (AP, 10.20.22)
  • o The U.S. government has examined the wreckage of Iranian-made drones shot down in Ukraine, deepening its insight into the unmanned craft, according to two U.S. officials. “There is extensive proof of their use by Russia against both military and civilian targets there,” John Kirby, a National Security Council official, said Oct. 20. “We’re going to make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia.” (WP, 10.20.22, NYT, 10.20.22)
  • o Iran has denied sending drones to Russia or deploying trainers to Ukraine. And the Kremlin has denied using Iranian drones to attack civilians. (NYT, 10.20.22)
• Ukraine on Oct. 18 sent Israel an official request for air defense systems that will allow it to counter any Iranian ballistic missiles and Iranian attack drones used by Russia in Ukraine. The next day Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Israel has offered to assist Ukraine in developing a missile warning system but won’t provide weapons—a move Jerusalem has been resisting, presumably to preserve its strategic cooperation with Russia in areas it considers higher priority. (Axios, 10.19.22, Bloomberg, 10.19.22, RM, 10.17.22)
  • o A new poll published this week shows that 41% of Israelis oppose sending arms to Ukraine, compared to 21% who support it. (GZERO Media, 10.20.22)
• NATO anti-drone systems capable of countering Iranian-made drones will be delivered to Ukraine in the next few days, Jens Stoltenberg, the bloc’s secretary general, said Oct. 18. (WP, 10.19.22)
  • o A U.S. defense official told CNN on Oct. 17 that the Pentagon is trying to speed up the delivery of two advanced NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine as Russia has increasingly used Iranian-supplied drones that explode on impact to pummel Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. (CNN, 10.17.22)
• Elon Musk has said he will continue to fund the Starlink mobile internet system in Ukraine for free “indefinitely” following discussions with the Pentagon. The billionaire entrepreneur had complained this week that the service was costing his company SpaceX “approaching $20 million a month” and had written to the Defense Department requesting financial support. (FT, 10.15.22)
  • The EU is discussing whether to cover the subscription cost of the Starlink terminals donated to Ukraine as part of options to safeguard internet communications in the war-stricken country. (FT, 10.17.22)
• Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin-linked magnate who leads the notorious Wagner mercenary group, said Oct. 19 that the private military contractor was “forming a people's militia” in Russia’s Belgorod region on the Ukrainian border. (MT, 10.20.22)
• Zelensky claimed Oct. 15 that over 65,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war so far, adding that he worried that even 100,000 dead would not be enough to “prompt the Kremlin to think a little bit.” (Politico, 10.16.22)
• A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation traveled to Kyiv to meet with Zelensky on Oct. 21, as Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the U.S. Senate, called for the Biden administration to step up assistance for Ukraine, breaking with his counterpart in the House of Representatives who warned earlier this week that aid for Kyiv would be reined in should the GOP take control of the lower chamber in next month’s midterm elections. Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California said Oct. 18 that a Republican majority would be unwilling to “write a blank check” to Ukraine, causing “shock” in Kyiv. (NYT, 10.21.22, FT, 10.21.22, NYT, 10.18.22, FT, 10.19.22)
• France is making its military support for Ukraine clearer than ever, but, with limited stocks, it may not have a lot more to give. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Oct. 15 spelled out the details of the latest batch of aid: France would send Crotale air-defense systems, to be operational within two months; train 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers; and is looking at sending LRU multiple-launch rocket systems, similar to American HIMARS. Some reports suggest that three of those systems are already on the ground. (Economist, 10.18.22)
• The EU on Oct. 17 approved a two-year military training mission in Europe for thousands of Ukrainian troops and a plan to provide around €500 million ($486 million) in extra funds to help buy weapons for the war-torn country. (AP, 10.17.22)
• After nearly 250 days since the Russian invasion, as the intense fighting persists with no sign of a let-up, Kyiv is increasingly confronted with the psychological hardships of keeping troops in combat without relief for such long stretches of time, while continuing to take advantage of their most experienced fighters. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
• A series of blasts on Oct. 16 severely damaged the offices of Russia’s puppet government in Donetsk, a Ukrainian city firmly controlled by Russia and its proxies since 2014. (NYT, 10.16.22)
• Denis Pushilin, head of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said Oct. 17 that Russia and Ukraine have completed another prisoner swap, with Ukraine releasing 110 prisoners. Russia’s Defense Ministry said they included 72 seamen from commercial vessels who had been held since February. The ministry said the Russian side had handed over 108 Ukrainian servicewomen. (AP, 10.17.22)
• Zelensky urged men in Russian-occupied territories to try to avoid recruitment by forces loyal to Moscow and encouraged them to flee to Ukrainian-controlled regions. If people are forcibly conscripted and “cannot do this … at the first opportunity try to lay down your arms and come to Ukrainian positions,” he said. (WP, 10.20.22)
• The Red Cross has conducted at least five visits to Ukrainian prisoners of war since Russia invaded Ukraine, Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador in Geneva, said Oct. 20 while insisting that “practical arrangements” were holding up a trip to the Olenivka prison in Donetsk region where dozens of POWs died. (AP, 10.20.22)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Oct. 20 that his three underage sons have been fighting with the Russian military on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. (MT, 10.20.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The Biden administration on Oct. 19 announced a round of criminal charges and sanctions related to a complicated scheme to procure military technologies from U.S. manufacturers and illegally supply them to Russia. Some of the equipment was recovered on battlefields in Ukraine. The Justice Department charged nearly a dozen people, including nationals of Russia, Latvia and Ukraine and brokers working for Venezuela’s state oil company. (AP, 10.20.22)
  • One of the Russian nationals, 40-year-old Artem Uss, who was arrested in Italy, is the son of the governor of Russia’s Krasnoyarsk region. (RM, 10.20.22)
• Britain and the E.U. imposed a fresh round of sanctions aimed at Iran on Oct. 20 over the drones being used in Ukraine. The sanctions will target the manufacturer of Shahed-136s, diplomats said, and three Iranian generals. (NYT, 10.20.22, FT, 10.17.22)
  • o Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Oct. 18 that Ukraine should sever diplomatic relations with Iran and that Kyiv would be ready to share a "bag of evidence" with European powers in doubt about the drones’ origins. (NYT, 10.18.22, Reuters, 10.18.22)
• Exxon Mobil on Oct. 17 said it has fully exited Russia, noting that Putin had expropriated its assets in the country and "unilaterally terminated" the company's Sakhalin-1 oil project, transferring it to a Russian operator. (CBS, 10.17.22)
• The Paris-based Financial Action Task Force has further cut back Russia's role in the organization due to its invasion of Ukraine. (AFP/Barron’s, 10.21.22)
• The U.S. and UK have agreed to bolster their cooperation in implementing and enforcing financial sanctions as they try to make it harder for Russia and other countries to elude economic punishment imposed by the West. In a joint announcement, top treasury officials said they had decided to take their collaboration to a “new level.” (FT, 10.17.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• According to a Sept.29-Oct. 1 poll by the Russian Field group, if Putin signed a peace accord and stopped the “special military operation” tomorrow, 75% of Russians would support these developments. (RM, 10.17.22)
• With Russian attempts to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Western experts say, Moscow hopes to force Kyiv to the negotiating table despite the Kremlin’s poor military performance on the battlefield. (WSJ, 10.20.22)
• In an interview aired Oct. 20, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Putin has shown “no interest” in “meaningful diplomacy” over the war in Ukraine, but that Zelensky has “also said he’s not going to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, only with the next Russian president.” (WP, 10.20.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO on Oct. 17 began its long-planned annual nuclear exercises in northwestern Europe as tensions simmer over the war in Ukraine and Putin’s threat to use any means to defend Russian territory. Dubbed Steadfast Noon, the maneuvers will run until Oct. 30. NATO is not permitting any media access. (AP, 10.17.22)
  • Russia stepped up military posturing in the Arctic ahead of the NATO drills, issuing an unusually high number of “notices to aviation” and navigational warnings around the Barents and Kara seas for Oct. 17-22. “At least some of the temporarily restricted areas are related to planned or ongoing weapon testing or live-fire training events,” said Kristian Åtland, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment. (Barents Observer, 10.16.22)
• Norwegian officials warned Oct. 20 that there could be more arrests after at least seven Russians—including the son of a once close associate of Putin’s—were detained in recent weeks for flying drones or taking pictures near sensitive areas, prompting an investigation by the domestic intelligence service. Drone sightings have been reported in Norway’s vast offshore oil and gas fields and at Norwegian airports. (WP, 10.20.22)
  • On Oct. 18 a judge ordered Andrey Yakunin, the 47-year-old son of former Russian Railways chief Vladimir Yakunin, to be placed in custody for two weeks for flying a drone around Svalbard. The younger Yakunin has Russian and British citizenship. (Barents Observer, 10.19.22, Barents Observer/MT, 10.19.22, WP, 10.16.22)
• A Russian aircraft released a missile near an unarmed British plane during a routine patrol in international airspace on Sept. 29, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace told Parliament on Oct. 20. He said Britain temporarily suspended patrols over the Black Sea because of the incident and now ensures its planes are escorted by fighter aircraft. A Russian investigation blamed the firing on a “technical malfunction.” (WP, 10.20.22)
  • Wallace met with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, in Washington on Oct. 18, a trip intended to reaffirm the security relationship between the allies amid “Russia’s continued brutal attack” of Ukraine. (WP, 10.19.22)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, on Oct. 21 about the war in Ukraine, the first conversation between the two men in months and only the second since Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24. Austin pushed for an immediate cease-fire and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication. (NYT, 10.21.22)
• A delay by Turkey in ratifying NATO membership bids from Finland and Sweden would harm security in the Baltic region at a time of heightened Russian aggression, the Finnish foreign minister has said. Despite a deal struck in June, Turkey and Hungary have still not ratified the Nordic countries’ accession, while NATO’s 28 other members have. (FT, 10.20.22)
• WNBA star Brittney Griner's release from prison in Russia is not a priority for the Kremlin, an aide to Putin said Oct. 16. Last week, President Biden had said there had been no movement with Putin over her case. Griner—who has been unable to speak with her parents or siblings since her detention in February as far as her lawyer was aware—marked her 32nd birthday on Oct. 18. A hearing to appeal her nine-year sentence is scheduled for Oct. 25. (Axios, 10.16.22, NYT, 10.18.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• In a momentous speech Oct. 16 to begin China’s once-in-five-years Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, made no mention of the war in Ukraine or the need for a negotiated settlement, which China has suggested in vague terms, but did criticize "Cold War thinking." (NYT, 10.16.22, Axios, 10.17.22)
• The share of China’s semiconductor exports to Russia that are defective surged from 2% to 40% after the Kremlin invaded Ukraine and Western sanctions forced Russian companies to source electronics from new suppliers, according to Russian daily Kommersant. (SCMP, 10.20.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Language in the new U.S. National Security Strategy referring to strategic stability indicates an unwillingness to carry out any dialogue with Moscow, Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov said in an article published Oct. 20. (TASS, 10.20.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia recently redeployed critical military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials based in the Middle East, underscoring how its faltering invasion of Ukraine has eroded Moscow’s influence elsewhere and removing one of several obstacles to Israeli support for Ukraine [see “Russia’s relations with other countries” section below for more on that]. An Israeli official also said that several Russian commanders had been redeployed from Syria to Ukraine, while Russia’s military leadership in Moscow has become less involved in day-to-day management of operations in Syria. (NYT, 10.19.22)
• A Russian delegation in Syria on Oct. 20 took 38 children from families of suspected Islamic State members for repatriation, a Kurdish official and AFP correspondents said. (AFP/MT, 10.20.22)

Cyber security:

• Experts warn Russia could escalate its cyber efforts in the November midterms as retaliation for the United States’ ongoing military and economic aid to Ukraine. Top U.S. cyber officials, including CISA director Jen Easterly, are warning that now is no time for governments or private sector companies to let down their guard, saying the recent denial-of-service attacks targeting the public websites of major U.S. airports—claimed by Russian hacker group Killnet—could be “the leading edge of other types of attacks.” (The Hill, 10.17.22, VOA, 10.11.22)
• The German government has removed the official responsible for keeping the country safe from cyberattacks, Arne Schönbohm, over reports that he kept in touch with a lobbying group that had links to Russian intelligence. To be fair, Schönbohm’s links appear tenuous: Before taking office he ran a cyber-security trade group, some of whose members appear to have had fishy pasts. (NYT, 10.18.22, Economist, 10.20.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• EU leaders agreed Oct. 21 after a marathon meeting to adopt a slate of measures aimed at bringing down energy prices that have rocked the region’s economies since Russia invaded Ukraine. A centerpiece of the measures was a cap on natural gas prices, which Germany had opposed. Details still need to be worked out; EU energy ministers will meet in Brussels next week. (NYT, 10.20.22, AP, 10.20.22, FT, 10.20.22)
  • The EU had unveiled a fresh proposal Oct. 18 for emergency measures to tackle the energy crisis. The draft legislation focused on joint purchasing of gas, cutting down further on gas consumption and strengthening fuel sharing between countries in case Russia turns off the taps completely. (NYT, 10.18.22)
  • Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Oct. 17 ordered Germany's three remaining nuclear plants to remain in operation until April to stave off an energy crunch. (DW, 10.17.22)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Oct. 19 that he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to create a "gas hub" in Turkey, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported. The hub would allow Europe to obtain gas while Russia's supplies were disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions and leaks at key pipelines. (AFP/MT, 10.19.22)
• Qatar’s energy minister has warned that Europe should have sufficient gas for power and heating this winter, but the tougher challenge will come in 2023 as reserves are depleted. Saad al-Kaabi added that the energy crisis could extend to the middle of the decade if Putin’s war in Ukraine continued and gas “does not start flowing back again” from Russia. (FT, 10.18.22)
• Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, on an official visit to the U.S., said his country is ready to buy fuel from Russia if it can pay the same rate as India. The West would have no problem with Pakistan importing discounted fuel, the minister said, since the country is reeling under the devastating impact of the floods. (Hindustan Times, 10.19.22)
• Investigators inspecting damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines have still not been able to find a smoking gun (or at least not one that they have revealed), but countries are moving to secure critical infrastructure in the wake of the sabotage. (Economist, 10.20.22, WP, 10.20.22)
  • The Kremlin said Oct. 18 that the investigation into the explosions that tore through the pipelines was being "tailored" to place the blame on Russia. (AFP/MT, 10.18.22)
  • See also “Russia’s relations with other countries” section below.
• The launch of coal mining on Russia’s far-north Taymyr peninsula was meant to lead to a boost in exports through the Northern Sea Route. Now, mining company Severnaya Zvezda instead seeks new markets and ways to replace sanctioned technology. (Barents Observer, 10.18.22)

Climate change:

• U.S. firms developing a new generation of small nuclear power plants to help cut carbon emissions have a big problem: Only one company sells the fuel they need, and it's Russian. The U.S. government is urgently looking to use some of its stockpile of weapons-grade uranium to help fuel the new advanced reactors and kick-start an industry it sees as crucial for countries to meet global net-zero emissions goals. (Reuters, 10.20.22)
• As nations prepare to gather in Egypt next month for a fresh round of U.N. climate negotiations, Ukraine and Russia are locked in a battle over who gets to claim the greenhouse gases of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory the Kremlin has occupied by force. Both countries are expected to submit official emissions numbers that they see as key to asserting their legal rights over the areas. (WP, 10.18.22)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Biden and Putin are slated to attend next month’s G-20 summit in Indonesia, setting up the possibility of a high-stakes face-off in the midst of an increasingly deadly Moscow invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials are taking steps to ensure that doesn’t happen. (Politico, 10.19.22)
• A majority of U.S. adults expect America's relations with foreign adversaries like Russia and North Korea to grow more hostile, according to a new poll, a major shift in public opinion: 60% of U.S. adults say relations with adversaries will get worse, up from 26% four years ago at the same point in the Trump administration, according to the poll from the Pearson Institute and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP, 10.17.22)
• When asked whether he thinks Putin is "still rational," Blinken said: "It's hard to put yourself in someone else's mind. I think he's rational, but the decisions he's making—or maybe better put, his objectives—are not rational." (ABC, 10.20.22)
• Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Oct. 19 warned against the growing populist tide in the Republican Party as he admonished “Putin apologists” unwilling to stand up to the Russian leader over his assault on Ukraine. (AP, 10.20.22)
• Igor Danchenko, a Russian researcher who contributed explosive details to a document dubbed the "Steele dossier" that alleged ties between former U.S. President Donald Trump's 2016 election campaign and Russia, was acquitted by a jury Oct. 18 on charges that he lied to the FBI about the sources of his information. (Reuters, 10.18.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin said Oct. 19 he was handing more power to regional governors, which would allow for significantly more restrictive measures to be introduced at home. These could be used to more tightly control critical infrastructure facilities, public transit and communications. The decree comes as Putin grapples with growing anger over his call-up of about 300,000 reservists to fight in the war. [See details on the latter in “Defense and aerospace” section below.] (NYT, 10.19.22)
  • Putin’s Oct. 19 decree assigned differing threat levels to Russia’s various constituent territories, largely depending on their proximity or significance to the war effort. Regions bordering the theater of combat—including Crimea, Sevastopol and six regions of Russia proper—were designated “medium response level,” allowing authorities a freer hand in tightening security, searching vehicles, commandeering businesses and relocating residents. The next level down applies to the Central Federal District, which includes Moscow, and does not allow restricting access to the area or forced relocations. The rest of Russia is in basic alert mode, for now. (RM, 10.20.22, The Bell, 10.19.22, MT, 10.20.22, Meduza, 10.20.22)
• Russia’s mobilization has hit consumer confidence and business activity and is likely to weigh on the economy for months to come, according to economists at the country’s central bank. A report released Oct. 20 noted the resulting labor force contraction, which would hit small and medium businesses especially hard. The bank also said Russians had withdrawn $7.5 billion in cash from banks in September, the bulk of it in the second half of the month after mobilization was announced. (Bloomberg, 10.19.22, Reuters, 10.20.22, RM, 10.20.22)
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its military mobilization—combined with falling fertility rates and the long-lasting effects of the 1990s population crisis—are pushing the country’s population decline to a historic precipice, Bloomberg reported Oct. 18. (MT, 10.18.22) 
  • Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030; yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding their targets were unrealistic. Meanwhile, the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the attack on Ukraine have brought Russia’s death rates to their highest level in the country’s modern history. (Bloomberg, 10.18.22, MT, 10.18.22) 
• Some 10.5 million Russians with diabetes have been affected by shortages of key medical equipment and rising drug prices since Moscow’s attack on Ukraine. (MT, 10.17.22) 
• Former Russian state TV journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who denounced the war on live television, has escaped house arrest and left Russia, her lawyer told Russian media outlet Avtozaklive on Oct. 17. A Russian court on Oct. 20 ordered her arrest. (MT, 10.17.22, Reuters, 10.20.22)
• “The end game is regime change in Russia,” former Russian opposition lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev told Euronews from Kyiv, where he has been in self-imposed exile. “You need to destroy the system … [and] that can be done only violently. There is no other way because the people around Putin will fight.” Ponomarev says he is a spokesman for the National Republican Army, an underground group that wants to violently overthrow Putin; the little-known NRA claimed responsibility for the car bomb that killed Darya Dugina, daughter of ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, but experts have cast doubt on the group’s existence. (Euronews, 10.19.22)
• Russia plans to give a grant of 90 million rubles for the development of a video game about Russian mercenaries fighting in an imaginary African country, according to the Kommersant daily. (The Bell, 10.19.22)
• Relocation.Guide, an online community that helps those who want to leave Russia orchestrate the details of their escape, started in February with 10 people and has grown into a 3,000-plus page resource, with over 50 chat channels on the encrypted messaging application Telegram. It has drawn millions of page views per month, its founder said, and counts more than 200,000 members. (WP, 10.15.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin on Oct. 20 made a rare visit to a military training ground near Ryazan in western Russia and met with Russian troops. Flanked by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Putin inspected equipment, visited a shooting range and spoke with soldiers, according to a statement released by the Kremlin. (WP, 10.20.22)
• Moscow's mayor said Oct. 17 that military mobilization in the Russian capital was now complete and the city had fulfilled its quota; authorities in more than 30 Russian regions made comparable announcements, while St. Petersburg sacked the official in charge of the draft there. These latest signs of problems with the unpopular and chaotic mobilization for the war in Ukraine came just days after Putin said the call-up to bolster his flagging forces would end within the next two weeks. (Reuters, 10.17.22, NYT, 10.17.22)
  • Two gunmen opened fire on a group of Russian military recruits at a training ground in Belgorod on Oct. 15, killing 11 people and wounding another 15, CNN reported, citing TASS. A senior Ukrainian official, Oleksiy Arestovych, said the two men were from Tajikistan and had opened fire on the others after an argument over religion. (Axios, 10.16.22, Reuters, 10.16.22)
  • Mounting evidence of ill-equipped Russian conscripts deployed to Ukraine with almost no military training has sparked bafflement and anger among friends and relatives. Despite draconian laws against criticizing the “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian social media has been awash with videos where newly mobilized men discuss or show their shoddy preparation for combat. (MT, 10.18.22, NYT, 10.16.22)
  • Nearly half of Russians said they felt stressed or fearful following Putin’s announcement of the draft, while another 13% said they felt anger, according to a poll last month by the Levada Center. A poll by the state Public Opinion Foundation around the same time also showed that the prevailing mood among Russians was now one of unease, according to 70% of 1,500 respondents. (WSJ, 10.15.22)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry has decided that no more than 30% of a company’s employees can be drafted, RBC reported Oct. 18. (RM, 10.18.22)
• A Su-34 fighter jet crashed near an apartment building in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region on Oct. 17, sparking a fire and killing at least 14 people. The Russian Defense Ministry said the plane crashed in the town of Yeysk during a training flight after one of its engines burst into flames. The Bell, an independent Russian-language news outlet, writes that the crash is at least the tenth non-combat loss of Russian aviation since the Feb. 24 invasion. (Meduza, 10.18.22, MT, 10.18.22, TASS, 10.17.22, RM, 10.17.22)
• See also sections on “Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict” above and “Russia’s relations with other countries” below.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• A court in Russia on Oct. 18 rejected imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s second appeal of his nine-year sentence. In an Instagram post on Oct. 20 Navalny detailed new criminal charges that his lawyers calculate could add 30 more years to his prison term. (AP, 10.18.22, Meduza, 10.20.22)
  • A new investigation by Navalny’s team says the family of Yury Borisov, the new head of Russian space agency Roscosmos and a former deputy prime minister, owns real estate in Russia and abroad worth at least a billion rubles. (Meduza, 10.19.20)
• Russia has handed down one of its first criminal cases for secretly working with a foreign government to undermine national security, Interfax reported Oct. 18. Moscow resident Pavel Pischulin has been given two months of pre-trial arrest; if convicted, he faces up to eight years in prison. Because the case is classified, the details of the defendant’s alleged crime were not disclosed. (MT, 10.18.22)
• After three missions in space, Russian cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev ran into difficulty on Earth when he drove over a colleague on a dark road outside Moscow less than three weeks after returning from his latest orbiting mission. (AP, 10.18.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Surreptitiously recorded remarks have revealed that Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian prime minister and prominent member of a new right-wing coalition expected to take power within days, blamed Ukraine’s president for forcing Russia to invade Ukraine. The remarks, complete with talk about a “sweet letter” and vodka from Putin, raise concerns that the new government could potentially lead Italy to undercut Europe’s united front against Russia. (NYT, 10.20.22)
• Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s government has radically decoupled the country from Russian energy supplies, but over the years Russian energy firms appear to have constructed an entire archipelago of influence operations in Germany, focusing largely on leaders at the state level. (Economist, 10.20.22)
  • In a recent exposé of what it calls the Gazprom Lobby, an investigative team from Correctiv, an online news portal, revealed a web of links between German politicians, German energy concerns and a clutch of seemingly innocuous NGOs. Members and distinguished guests of these well-funded outfits included numerous former and serving minister-presidents of Germany’s 16 federal states. (Economist, 10.20.22)
  • The CEO of the $10 billion (now bankrupt) Nord Stream 2 project was Matthias Warnig, a former officer in the notorious Stasi, East Germany’s secret police, who had used his connections to help German companies gain a toehold in post-Soviet Russia. (Economist, 10.20.22)
• Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev on Oct. 17 warned Israel that supplying weapons to Kyiv would destroy relations with Russia. Medvedev appeared to be responding to a tweet by Israeli Diaspora Minister Nachman Shai, in which Shai called on the government to provide military aid to Ukraine—a move Jerusalem has been resisting, presumably to preserve its strategic cooperation with Russia in areas that are higher priority. (Politico, 10.17.22, RM, 10.17.22)
• The White House is “deeply disappointed” Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told Putin that he mistrusts the Biden administration, a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council told Axios. “We don't trust it, we don't rely on it and under no circumstances can we accept that America is the sole party in resolving a problem,” Abbas said last week on the sidelines of an international summit in Kazakhstan, according to Reuters. He added that he is “happy and satisfied” with Russia's support for Palestine: "Russia stands by justice and international law and that is enough for us." (Axios, 10.15.22)
• In his first public comments on a touchy subject, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Oct. 20 backed a decision by his predecessor to cancel a deal to buy 16 Russian military heavy-lift helicopters and said his administration has “secured an alternative supply from the United States.” (AP, 10.20.22)
• Finland’s  Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Oct. 18 she was convinced that there is “wide support” within parliament to build a fence on the Nordic country’s border with Russia as proposed by Finnish border guard officials. Speaking later during a visit to London, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto warned that Europe’s security was “fragile” as Putin escalates his war in Ukraine. (AP, 10.18.22, FT, 10.20.22)
• Within hours of Burkina Faso’s second coup this year, the head of Russia’s shadowy mercenary outfit Wagner Group was among the first to congratulate the new junta leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traore. As Traore solidifies his grip on power, questions are already swirling about his relationship with Russia and how much it played a hand in catapulting him and his allies to power. (AP, 10.18.22)
• Putin on Oct. 14 brushed off comments from French counterpart Emmanuel Macron that Moscow was destabilizing the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (RFE/RL, 10.14.22)
• Russia reacted to the resignation of British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Oct. 20 by calling the short-serving British premier a "disgrace." (MT, 10.20.22)
• Estonian lawmakers on Oct. 18 condemned Moscow's annexation of Ukrainian territory and declared Russia a "terrorist regime." (AFP/MT, 10.18.22)
• The leader of Poland’s largest opposition party on Oct. 18 called on the country’s ruling party to fully clarify the facts surrounding an eight-year-old scandal involving the illegal recordings of top politicians and coal imports from Russia. (AP, 10.18.22)
• Four Chinese and one Russian group are on the shortlist as Bolivia’s leftwing government nears a decision on a possible partner for state lithium company Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos, with the kind of collaboration to be determined. One U.S. group is the only Western company still in contention. (FT, 10.16.22)

Ukraine:

• 70% of Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting until their country wins the war against Russia, according to a Gallup poll published Oct. 19 but conducted in early September, amid successful counteroffensives in the country’s south and east. Nearly all who supported continuing the fight defined victory as retaking all territories seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea, Gallup said. (WP, 10.18.22)
• The head conductor of Kherson’s top theater, Yuri Kerpatenko, was killed in his home by Russian forces, the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture said Oct. 15, after he refused to take part in an online day of music organized by Russian-backed local officials. (NYT, 10.15.22, Economist, 10.20.22)
• Crowdfunding started Oct. 15 for the capture of Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian nationalist who led Kremlin-backed separatists during Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. The total raised had exceeded $150,000 by the afternoon of Oct. 16, according to Serhiy Sternenko, the Ukrainian activist leading the effort. (FT, 10.16.22)
• The Moscow-installed authorities of the port city of Mariupol, which fell to Russian forces after a devastating siege earlier in the year, took down a monument to Ukrainian victims of Stalin's famine on Oct. 19. (AFP/MT, 10.20.22)
• Ukraine has recalled its ambassador to Kazakhstan after remarks he made about "killing" Russians spurred condemnation from Moscow. Russia's Foreign Ministry had urged Kazakhstan to expel Petro Vrublevsky. He later apologized for the remarks. (MT, 10.19.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Iran’s military is conducting large-scale military drills on its border with Azerbaijan, including practicing crossings of the Aras River, which defines a large part of the border between the two states. The exercises, which began Oct. 17, come as Iran has been stepping up diplomatic warnings to Baku about Azerbaijan’s intentions for a new transport link that would pass along Iran’s border with Armenia. (Eurasianet, 10.20.22)
• Kazakh officials said Oct. 19 that more than 50 international companies have relocated from Russia to Kazakhstan since Moscow launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22)
• Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili said Oct. 17 that her country may change its "liberal" visa regime for Russian citizens amid an unprecedented influx sparked by the Kremlin's mobilization of troops for the war against Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.17.22)
• Tajik authorities accused Kyrgyzstan on Oct. 19 of violating cease-fire agreements near disputed segments of their shared border after dozens of people were killed on both sides during clashes last month. Both sides are accusing one another of secretly returning troops and weapons to the contested border. (RFE/RL, 10.19.22, Eurasianet, 10.19.22)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, on Oct. 20 opened another international airport near Nagorno-Karabakh. It is the second airport to have been built there since Baku regained control over parts of the breakaway region and seven adjacent districts in 2020. (RFE/RL, 10.20.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.