3 Things to Know

1. In the course of intensive talks in Geneva, U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators produced an “updated and refined” version of the original U.S.-Russian 28-point peace plan, dropping or amending multiple provisions seen as overly favorable to Moscow and incorporating what Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov described as “most of the key Ukrainian priorities.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Geneva session the most productive to date, noting that major disagreements were narrowed point-by-point, including on security guarantees, territorial provisions and the removal of earlier terms requiring Ukraine to cap its army and accept blanket amnesty. This revised 19-point draft set the stage for a new phase of diplomacy on Nov. 25, when U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi to begin to bridge remaining gaps. While in Abu Dabhi, Ukrainian negotiator Umerov said only minor details remain. However, while Vladimir Putin said last week that the original 28-point plan could “form the basis for a final peace settlement,” his Foreign Minister hinted this week that Russia could reject the revised 19-point plan. Sergei Lavrov said on Nov. 25 that any peace plan must uphold the “spirit of Anchorage”—the understandings reached between Donald Trump and Putin at their Alaska summit in August. In contrast to Lavrov’s caution, Trump enthusiastically hailed what he described as “tremendous progress with respect to ending the war,” asserting that “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement.” The U.S. leader wrote on Nov. 25 that his envoys will be meeting Ukrainian and Russian leaders, presumably, to bridge the remaining gaps.
2. It would take Russia two years to take the Donetsk oblast “completely,” according to Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, while ISW estimates that a full conquest of the Donetsk oblast’s “Fortress Belt” would require “years. “Russia’s slow grind in 2025 has gained it less than an additional 1% of Ukrainian territory at a massive cost estimated at over 200,000 troops killed and wounded, according to WP. All in all, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to U.S. chargé d’affaires in Kyiv, Julie Davis. Such a level of casualties did not constitute a win, in her view.As of Jan. 1, 2025, Russian forces were in control of 18.5% of Ukraine’s territory, according to a site affiliated with Ukraine’s Deep State OSINT group. As of Nov. 24, 2025, Russian forces were in control of 19.2% of Ukraine’s territory, according to DeepState. Thus, according to this site, Russia gained 0.7% of Ukrainian territory this year. According to ISW data analyzed by RM staff, Russia gained 1,903 square miles of Ukrainian territory in January-November 2025, which equals 0.8% of Ukrainian territory.*

3. Republican opposition to U.S. military aid for Ukraine is rising, according to a Nov. 15–17, 2025, Economist/YouGov poll.The share of Republicans wanting to stop all Ukraine aid increased from 14% last month to 22% this month, and those favoring decreased aid also rose, from 17% to 20%. Overall, however, 34% of Americans support increasing aid compared to 35% last month, while 21% would maintain current levels compared to 22% last month, 11% would decrease it compared to 9% last month and 16% would stop it altogether compared 11% last month.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• No significant developments.
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• As of Nov. 24, 2025, Russian forces occupied 115,629 square kilometers (44,645 square miles), which constituted 19.15% of Ukraine’s territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 11.25.25)
• Russia’s slow grind in 2025 has gained it less than an additional 1% of Ukrainian territory at a massive cost estimated at over 200,000 troops killed and wounded. While Russian forces are poised to take Pokrovsk, a stubborn fortress city in Donetsk that has held out for over a year, Western military analysts still don’t see Russia as being on the brink of any kind of stunning advance that might break Ukraine’s will to fight. Instead, the staggering loss of life — barring some diplomatic intervention — is expected to continue. (Washington Post, 11.25.25)

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• On Nov. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Odradne and Bologivka, and advanced near Dvorichanske, Chervonyi Lyman, Zelenyi Hai and Vysoke. (RM, 11.25.25)

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025

• On Nov. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk and near Dachenske. (RM, 11.25.25)
• On Nov. 22, Ukrainian forces continued to resist repeated Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk and contest Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction. While Russian commanders have exaggerated battlefield victories, ISW notes there is not enough evidence to confirm Russian control over all of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian troops are still fighting to prevent encirclement and logistical isolation in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. (ISW, 11.22.25)

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025

• On Nov. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampil, Katerynivka, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. (RM, 11.25.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike overnight caused a fire at the Shatura power plant, which supplies around 6% of Moscow’s electricity, as both Russia and Ukraine step up attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure ahead of peace talks. Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, injuring at least 14 in Dnipro. (Bloomberg, 11.23.25)
• On Nov. 23, Russian advances remained slow, with some progress near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad but no major change of control; continued Western aid could further slow or reverse gains. (ISW, 11.23.25)

Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

• On Nov. 24, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Siversk, Novoselivka, Zatyshya, Novoekonomichne and Myroliubivka. (RM, 11.25.25)
• Despite recent Russian advances, ISW assesses that Russian forces are unlikely to imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin has promoted the narrative of inevitable victory to pressure Ukraine and the West, but Russia’s efforts to capture key population centers in Donetsk—the “Fortress Belt”—have consistently failed. ISW concludes that a full conquest would require years and substantial Russian manpower and materiel, with no guarantee of success. WP columnist David Ignatius wrote it would take Russia two years to “take Donetsk completely.” (Washington Post, 11.22.25, ISW, 11.24.25)
• As of Nov. 24, Ukrainian forces maintained positions and conduct limited counterattacks in Pokrovsk, with recent geolocated footage showing Ukrainian patrols and clearing operations along the E-50 highway and central areas. (ISW, 11.24.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv on Nov. 25, killing at least seven people and injuring at least 20. (New York Times, 11.25.25)
• “Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, in close cooperation, successfully hit the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk as well as the Tuapse oil refinery,” Ukraine’s General Staff said on Nov. 25 in a Telegram statement. The claims could not be independently verified. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25)
• At least three people were killed in a major Ukrainian drone attack on the southern Rostov region, local authorities said early Nov. 25. Residents reported a fire at a site that Telegram news channels later claimed was an airstrip owned by Beriev Aircraft Company, which manufactures military aircraft. (MT/AFP, 11.25.25)
  • The plane that was struck in Taganrog last night was a unique, experimental A-60 flying laboratory, based on the Il-76 transport aircraft. The A-60 was developed in the Soviet Union as a carrier of laser weapons. It was used in experiments to blind and temporarily disable the optical systems of reconnaissance satellites. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the development of this project has been halted multiple times, mainly because of the lack of funding. The work restarted in 2010s. (Status-6 X Account, 11.25.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote that a U.S. official told him that contrary to some reports, the Trump administration was "100%" committed to continued U.S. intelligence support for Ukraine. The 28-point plan was "aspirational" and open to negotiation, he claimed. Trump's public comments have not been so reassuring. (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
• Republican opposition to U.S. military aid for Ukraine is rising, according to a Nov. 15–17, 2025 Economist/YouGov Poll. The share of Republicans wanting to stop all Ukraine aid increased from 14% last month to 22%, and those favoring decreased aid also rose to 20%. Still, only slightly more Republicans want to stop all aid than to increase it (22% vs. 18%). Overall, 34% of Americans support increasing aid, 21% would maintain current levels, 11% would decrease it, and 16% would stop it altogether. (YouGov, 11.18.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russian exiles and activists are alarmed by the European Union’s decision to restrict multiple-entry tourist visas for Russians, saying it punishes ordinary people and will do little to stop Kremlin aggression. (New York Times, 11.22.25)
• The European Union has stopped issuing multiple-entry tourist visas to Russians, now requiring a new single-entry visa for each trip. (New York Times, 11.23.25)
• Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys urged the EU to urgently decide how to use frozen Russian assets, arguing that taking action is essential for Europe to secure a role in Ukraine peace negotiations. (Bloomberg, 11.24.25)
• As Ukraine peace talks advance, EU leaders are increasing pressure on Belgium to approve a key loan package for Kyiv using frozen Russian sovereign assets. The EU and G-7 have immobilized about €210bn of Russian state assets, with €190bn held at Brussels-based Euroclear. (Financial Times, 11.25.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

• On Nov. 21 Trump administration envoys delivered a hardline ultimatum to Ukrainian and European officials in Kyiv, warning that there is little room for negotiation on the new U.S.-Russia peace plan and pressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign by Nov. 27. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Chargé d’affaires Julie Davis told European diplomats there are limits to U.S. support, while U.S. President Donald Trump insisted Zelenskyy “will have to like” the plan. European leaders described the meeting as “shocking” and called the proposal a “capitulation” to Moscow. (Financial Times, 11.21.25)
• On Nov. 21, Trump, in a lengthy post on Truth Social, claimed that the Russia-Ukraine war “would have NEVER HAPPENED” with “strong and proper U.S. and Ukrainian LEADERSHIP,” asserting that the conflict “began long before I took office for a Second Term, during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration.” He argued that if the 2020 election “was not RIGGED & STOLEN,” Putin “would never have attacked!” Trump wrote that he “INHERITED A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, A WAR THAT IS A LOSER FOR EVERYONE,” lamenting the “millions of people that have so needlessly died.” He complained that Ukrainian leaders have shown “ZERO GRATITUDE,” criticized Europe for continuing to buy Russian oil and said the U.S. “continues to sell massive $amounts of weapons” to NATO for Ukraine, while “Crooked Joe gave everything, free, free, free.” (Truth Social, 11.21.25)
• On Nov. 21, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reported to have sought to distance the U.S. from a 28-point peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia, according to senators he spoke to. “It is not our recommendation. It is not our peace plan,” said Republican Sen. Mike Rounds, who spoke to Rubio as the secretary of state prepared to travel to Geneva to meet senior European and Ukrainian officials to discuss the plan on Nov. 23. Rubio told senators that the Russians gave the plan to Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, which the U.S. then relayed to the Ukrainians in its role as an intermediary. After the senators’ remarks were published, Rubio posted on X that: “The peace proposal was authored by the U.S. “It is offered as a strong framework for ongoing negotiations. It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.” On Nov. 20, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Witkoff and Rubio had been “working on a plan quietly” for around a month. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)¹
• On Nov. 22, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States “authored” a 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, after a Republican senator asserted that Rubio had distanced himself from the proposal and called it a Russian initiative. (New York Times, 11.23.25)
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) wrote Nov. 22 on X that “several areas” of the U.S. proposal “are very problematic and can be made better.” Graham said “the fate of the almost 20,000 Ukrainian children kidnapped by Putin’s forces” must be addressed in the settlement, also underscoring that “the goal of any peace deal is to end the war honorably and justly — and not create new conflict.” (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
  • “This so-called ‘peace plan’ has real problems, and I am highly skeptical it will achieve peace,” Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a post on X. “Any assurances provided to Putin should not reward his malign behavior or undermine the security of the United States or allies. In particular, any suggestion that we can pursue arms control with a serial liar and killer like Putin should be treated with great skepticism.” (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
  • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), wrote on X that “rewarding Russian butchery would be disastrous to America’s interests.” And Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement on Nov. 22 that he strongly supports imposing “tough, targeted sanctions on Russia to weaken Putin’s war machine and strengthen America’s hand at the negotiating table.” (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
  • “It is essentially the wish list of the Russians,” said Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)
• Amid U.S. pressure to accept a 28-point peace plan² that would require ceding territory, reducing Ukraine’s military, and abandoning NATO ambitions, Zelenskyy declared Ukraine is facing “one of the most difficult moments in its history.” With Trump setting a Thanksgiving deadline and threatening to cut U.S. support, Zelenskyy warned Ukraine risks losing its “key partner” but insisted he would not betray Ukraine’s interests, constitution, or dignity. European allies have rejected the plan’s major concessions as tantamount to capitulation and emphasized that any settlement must safeguard Ukraine’s security and sovereignty. (Bloomberg, 11.21.25, The Guardian, 11.21.25)
  • Zelenskyy has officially accepted the ideas in the new 28-point U.S. peace plan after direct talks with U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv, Ukraine’s new ambassador to the United States, Olga Stefanishyna, told David Ignatius. Driscoll’s visit included meetings with Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s military cabinet, as well as frontline assessments of the military situation—a development the ambassador described as “the start of a good process.” (Washington Post, 11.25.25)³
  • Many Ukrainians, from the front lines to cities hit by Russian strikes, dismiss the Trump administration’s U.S.-Russian peace plan as “capitulation,” saying it effectively meets Russia’s demands by requiring Kyiv to cede territory, shrink its military, and abandon NATO ambitions. (New York Times, 11.22.25)
• European leaders, including Macron, Merz, and Starmer, pushed back strongly on the U.S.-Russian peace plan of 28 points, insisting any settlement must be “genuinely fair,” and that the line of contact, not Russian de facto control, should be the starting point for territorial discussions. They reaffirmed that Ukraine must determine its own future under sovereignty and that any deal should safeguard Europe’s and Ukraine’s long-term interests. (The Guardian, 11.21.25)
• Ukrainian civil society, government sources, and West European commentators have overwhelmingly condemned the Trump plan as a capitulation, criticizing its one-sided nature, lack of Ukrainian or European input, and arguing that it grants Russia major rewards while failing to ensure genuine security or justice for Ukraine. (The Guardian, 11.21.25)

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025

• Trump told reporters that Zelenskyy “will have to like” his administration’s proposed peace plan to end the war with Russia, saying Kyiv must accept the 28-point deal—requiring it to cede territory, limit its army, and forgo NATO membership—by Nov. 27 or face continued fighting. Zelenskyy countered he “would not betray” his country, and the plan is seen in Kyiv as favoring Russia.  Asked what would happen if Zelenskyy refused to sign the peace agreement he said, “he can continue to fight his little heart out.” However, he also signaled some flexibility with Zelenskyy. When asked if this is his final offer to Ukraine, Trump said, “No,” adding, “I would like to get the peace. It should have happened a long time ago. … We’re trying to get it ended. One way or the other we have to get it ended.” While Mr. Trump has said he wants Ukraine’s response to the peace plan by Nov. 27, he has left open the possibility that the deadline could be extended “if things are working well.” (New York Times, 11.23.25, Washington Post, 11.22.25, The Moscow Times, 11.22.25)
• U.S. army secretary Daniel Driscoll told European ambassadors and western officials at a volatile meeting in Kyiv late on Nov. 21 that he was “optimistic that now is the time for peace” — but warned that Washington would show little flexibility. Driscoll showed up late and laced his comments with profanities, according to people present. “We need to get this shit done,” he said. “We are not negotiating details,” he said, according to a senior European official in the meeting at the Kyiv residence of U.S. Chargé d’affaires, Julie Davis. Some EU ambassadors in the meeting framed the U.S. proposal as a strategic victory for Russia. Davis countered that the loss of 1mn soldiers — the U.S. estimate for how many Russians have been killed and wounded since Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022 — did not constitute a win. As the meeting came to a close, the EU ambassadors argued that instead of cutting a deal now, more pressure on Russia was needed. The Americans said what was on offer was the best Ukraine could expect. Driscoll told European ambassadors and western officials that Washington was “not negotiating details.” (Financial Times, 11.22.25, Financial Times, 11.22.25)
• On Nov. 22, on the sidelines of a Group of 20 meeting in Johannesburg, more than a dozen European leaders drafted a counterproposal to the 28-point plan, calling the original “a basis which will require additional work.” The group, which included French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said in a joint statement they are “concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.” “We reiterate that the implementation of elements relating to the European Union and relating to NATO would need the consent of E.U. and NATO members,” the statement said. Under the European proposal, no restrictions would be imposed on Kyiv’s armed forces. Ukraine would regain control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the Kakhovka Dam, and enjoy “unhindered passages” on the Dnieper River and control of the Kinburn Split. Other territorial disputes will be addressed after a ceasefire, the proposal said. (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
  • Ukraine’s Western allies say more work is needed on the U.S.-Russia peace plan for Ukraine, insisting that the EU and NATO must have a say over its terms. Leaders from 14 countries, including Germany, France, and the U.K., emphasized that the draft 28-point plan needs “additional work” and warned that limits on Ukraine’s military could leave the country vulnerable. The call comes as Washington pressures Kyiv to sign the deal by Nov. 27 in what European officials call a “capitulation” to Moscow. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)
• A statement by European leaders offered cautious support for the U.S. push to craft a Ukraine peace plan, saying an initial 28-point draft “includes important elements” but will require “additional work” to ensure a just and durable settlement. In a joint statement, they emphasized that borders “must not be changed by force” and expressed concern that proposed limits on Ukraine’s armed forces could leave the country vulnerable to future attack. They also stressed that any provisions touching the EU or NATO would require the consent of their respective members, while reaffirming strong, coordinated support for Ukraine and continued close consultation with Kyiv and Washington. (RM with use of materials by European Council, 11.22.25)
• David Ignatius wrote: “Because of Ukraine's political instability, U.S. officials included a proposal for national elections in Ukraine within 100 days after an agreement is signed… They [U.S. officials] added a clause providing postwar amnesty, at Ukraine's request.” (Washington Post, 11.22.25)
• U.S. officials and lawmakers are concerned about a meeting last month in which representatives of the Trump administration met with Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian envoy who is under U.S. sanctions, to draft plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. The meeting took place in Miami at the end of October and included special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Dmitriev, who leads the Russian Direct Investment Fund, one of Russia's largest sovereign wealth funds. The meeting resulted in a 28-point plan for ending the war, two people familiar with the situation said. The plan, which was made public this week by Axios,⁴ came as a surprise to U.S. officials in various corners of the administration and has stirred confusion at embassies throughout Washington and in European capitals. (Reuters, 11.22.25)
  • According to the U.S. officials, Ukraine’s Umerov said in the Florida meeting that Zelenskyy might be ready to compromise on the crucial issue of swapping land in Donetsk for a peace deal, which has been a Russian demand. Umerov also said that Ukraine might be willing to cap its army at 600,000, U.S. officials told David Ignatius. (Washington Post, 11.22.25)

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025

• Top of Form
• On Nov. 23 in Geneva, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators unveiled an “updated and refined” version of the 28-point U.S.–Russian peace plan, softening some initial terms but leaving key issues—especially security guarantees—unsettled. The Trump‑backed framework still includes territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s military, and renouncing NATO membership, though U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said further revisions are possible before Nov. 27. Many Ukrainians and U.S. allies remain uneasy. Ukraine and its European partners are promoting a counter‑proposal requiring a full ceasefire before any territorial talks with Russia. They want a U.S. guarantee equivalent to NATO’s Article 5, the use of frozen Russian assets for reconstruction, no surrender of unoccupied territory, and phased sanctions relief tied to Russian compliance. European leaders, surprised by leaked U.S. terms, say the plan needs more work and are slowing efforts to finalize it by Thanksgiving. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz doubts a deal is imminent, while Ursula von der Leyen insists any agreement must uphold inviolable borders, Ukraine’s unrestricted sovereignty over its armed forces, and a central EU role in securing peace. (RM, 11.23.25, Axios, 11.23.25,  Reuters, 11.23.25, Bloomberg, 11.23.25, Bloomberg, 11.23.25, Financial Times, 11.23.25, Financial Times, 11.23.25)
  • Rubio described the Nov. 23 Geneva talks, in which Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Yermak participated, as “the most productive and meaningful” of the process, with U.S. and Ukrainian officials reviewing the proposal point-by-point and making changes to narrow differences. Rubio emphasized that while the aim is to end the war quickly, more time is needed to resolve issues around U.S. security guarantees and other major points before terms can be presented to Moscow for approval. He said discussions about Ukraine’s NATO and EU future would occur separately from these talks, with the current U.S. draft excluding NATO membership for Kyiv—a matter requiring consensus among all 32 alliance members. Rubio also noted he has not seen any counter-proposals from European partners. Rubio expressed optimism but noted the final text will require approval from both Zelenskyy and Trump before being sent to Moscow, with some issues—particularly around sanctions and Russian assets—flagged by European leaders as EU prerogatives. (Financial Times, 11.24.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.24.25)
  • Suggesting there is intent to ensure Ukraine's security, Rubio said that they all "recognize that part of getting a final end to this war will require for Ukraine to feel as if it is safe, and it is never going to be invaded or attacked again.” (Fox News, 11.23.25)
  • Kyiv is “satisfied” with the Geneva negotiations on the U.S.-led peace plan, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov said Nov. 23. Umerov noted that the current draft — now in the final stage of coordination — already reflects “most of the key Ukrainian priorities,” and he thanked the United States for its “constructive engagement” and close attention to Ukraine’s concerns. He added that Kyiv expects further progress “during the course of the day.” (Korrespondent.net, 11.23.25)
  • Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov said the latest draft of the U.S. peace plan now reflects most of Kyiv’s key priorities after several rounds of talks in Geneva, although the document is still being finalized. The initial 28-point proposal aligned with many Russian demands—requiring Ukraine to cede territory, reduce its army size, and renounce NATO ambitions—but Umerov and Zelenskyy indicated that the current version increasingly incorporates critical Ukrainian interests. Trump has set a Thanksgiving deadline for Ukraine’s response but suggested some flexibility. (Moscow Times, 11.23.25)
• Trump publicly attacked Ukrainian and European leaders as peace talks in Geneva began over the U.S.’s contentious Ukraine plan, declining to blame Russia for the war and venting frustration at Kyiv for not accepting a truce. (Financial Times, 11.23.25)
  • Trump wrote: “The war between Russia and Ukraine is a violent and terrible one that, with strong and proper U.S. and Ukrainian leadership, would have never happened. It began long before I took office for a second term, during the Sleepy Joe Biden administration, and has only gotten worse. If the 2020 presidential election was not rigged & stolen, the only thing the Radical Left Democrats are good at doing, there would be no Ukraine/Russia war, as there wasn’t, not even a mention, during my first term in office. Putin would never have attacked!” Ukraine “leadership” has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts, and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia, he wrote. (Truth Social, 11.23.25)
  • Finnish President Alexander Stubb said he and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke directly with President Trump about the U.S. 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, during the G20 summit in Johannesburg. Stubb, who is regarded as having a good rapport with Trump, declined to share details, noting that European leaders were not aware of the plan before it was announced. He emphasized that peace negotiations “need patience.” (Bloomberg, 11.23.25)
  • U.S. outgoing special envoy Keith Kellogg expressed optimism about the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, telling Fox News that the end of the war is near: ““He has brought the war to a point where, in the army, we say the last 10 meters to the target are always the hardest. We are roughly on the last two meters. We are almost there.” Kellogg emphasized that the current framework is real and close to being signed, but additional security guarantees must be included. He also said Ukrainian officials trust the U.S., and described the conflict as “the longest war in Europe since World War II.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.23.25)

Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

• The Trump administration’s initial 28-point Ukraine peace plan, criticized for aligning with Russian demands, has been heavily revised after strong objections from Kyiv and Europe. The original draft—created with input from Trump advisers, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and Ukrainian officials—included contentious provisions: ceding a buffer zone in Donetsk, de facto recognition of Russian occupation, renunciation of NATO membership and NATO troop presence, vague and non-binding security guarantees, capping Ukraine’s army at 600,000, blanket amnesty for Russian forces, use of frozen Russian assets for U.S.-led reconstruction instead of EU-backed reparations, and preemptive decisions on European security architecture. After Geneva talks, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the proposal a “living, breathing document.” The revised 19-point draft, according to Ukrainian officials, drops or amends several points: the army cap and blanket amnesty, restrictions on NATO aspirations, EU-exclusion from asset issues, Russian demands on European security, and non-Ukraine-focused clauses. Unresolved issues—territorial questions and detailed security guarantees—are set for direct talks between Presidents Trump and Zelensky. (RM, 11.24.25, New York Times, 11.24.25, Financial Times, 11.24.25, Financial Times, 11.24.25, ABC News, 11.25.25, CBS News, 11.25.25, Istories, 11.25.25, Umerov on X, 11.25.25, Politico, 11.24.25)
  • The most difficult of all remaining obstacles is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the parts of Donetsk province, in the east of the country, they currently control.  It would mean Ukraine surrendering its “fortress belt” composed of the cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka which have formed a bulwark against Russian forces since 2014.The territory abandoned by Ukraine would become a “neutral demilitarized buffer zone”. But if Russia were to breach that zone in a renewed attack, central Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, would be badly exposed. (Financial Times, 11.24.25)
  • The current draft agreement features robust, legally binding security guarantees for Ukraine from the U.S. and European partners, which Yermak described as historic. There has been positive U.S. reaction to formalizing these guarantees in a treaty, a significant upgrade from previous proposals that only offered political assurances. Yermak also confirmed that, despite the original U.S. plan asking Ukraine to renounce NATO membership, the new text allows Ukraine to maintain its constitutional commitment to NATO ambitions, while recognizing the reality that “we are not in NATO.” This adjustment helped bring the plan closer to Ukraine’s main red lines. (Axios, 11.25.25)
  • Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, is also in Abu Dhabi for meetings, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25)
  • Ukrainian negotiator Sergiy Kyslytsya described the revised draft as bearing little resemblance to the original, controversial 28-point proposal, with points like the 600,000 troop cap and blanket amnesty reworked or removed. Both sides praised constructive talks, but major choices now await the presidents. (Financial Times, 11.24.25)
• Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine’s delegation had left Geneva as work continues on refining a U.S.-backed peace proposal, with both Washington and Kyiv describing “meaningful progress” on the updated framework. Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that Ukraine’s situation could deteriorate further and Russian demands might intensify next year, arguing that no leader could survive—politically or physically—by accepting a deeply unpopular and painful peace package the society rejects.  (RFE/RL, 11.24.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.24.25)
• On Nov. 24 Driscoll, an ally of U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, began talks with the Russians, according to a US official and two people familiar with the meeting. (Financial Times, 11.25.25)
• White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had said on Nov. 24 that there were no plans “at this moment” for Trump and Zelenskyy to meet in person. (Financial Times, 11.25.25)
• The Kremlin said it has not yet received official details from the White House about the latest U.S. peace proposal following Geneva talks with Ukraine. (Moscow Times, 11.24.25)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko predicted an imminent end to what he called the “dragged-out” war in Ukraine, telling a Russian regional governor that the conflict will be concluded soon so that both countries can focus on internal affairs and improving the lives of their citizens. (Meduza, 11.24.25)

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• U.S. and Russian officials have entered a new phase of Ukraine peace negotiations, with U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll meeting a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 24-25 to narrow remaining gaps in the Trump administration’s proposal. Driscoll presented a modified version described by the White House as part of an “updated and refined peace framework.” (RFE/RL, 11.25.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.25.25)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that any interim U.S. peace plan for Ukraine must uphold the “spirit of Anchorage”—the understandings reached between Trump and Putin at their Alaska summit. He said Moscow still hasn’t received an official U.S. plan, only informal versions, and will await a draft coordinated with Europeans and Ukrainians before responding. Lavrov stressed that if key Anchorage agreements are missing from the draft, Russia’s stance could fundamentally change. (Korrespondent.net, 11.25.25)
• Donald Trump said in post on Truth Social on Nov. 25: “Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine ..... Last month 25,000 soldiers died. The original 28-Point Peace Plan, which was drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement. In the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan, I have directed my Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and, at the same time, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians. ...I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages.” (Truth Social, 11.25.25)
• Zelenskyy said talks with the U.S. about a peace plan were continuing following a report suggesting that Kyiv agreed to the terms of a potential deal to end Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Communication with the American side continues,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X following a phone call with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Nov. 25. “I am grateful for all of America’s efforts and personally for President Trump’s efforts.” The agreement is on the broad framework of a deal — with key points still to be resolved between U.S. and Ukraine, including the thorniest issues such as territory and security guarantees, which have to be resolved at the level of presidents, according to a person familiar with the matter. They requested anonymity because talks are confidential. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25)
  • Zelenskyy is seeking a meeting with Trump “as soon as possible,” potentially over Thanksgiving, to finalize a deal on ending the war, his chief of staff Andriy Yermak told Axios. While most issues in the revised U.S. peace plan are settled, Zelenskyy insists that only direct talks with Trump can resolve the sensitive matter of territorial concessions. (Axios, 11.25.25)
• Ukrainian ambassador to U.S. Stefanishyna revealed that formal security guarantees are now part of negotiations, including legal commitments from the United States and European allies as well as discussion of possible European or Western “deterrence forces” on Ukrainian soil. She emphasized these should be equal to what NATO allies receive, reflecting Kyiv’s demand for robust postwar protections. (Washington Post, 11.25.25)
• Top of Form
• In a rare diplomatic move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping initiated a call with Trump to discuss tensions over Taiwan and the evolving U.S.-led Ukraine peace initiative. According to Chinese state media, Xi emphasized Taiwan’s “return to China” as integral to postwar order, citing historical treaties, while Trump acknowledged the sensitivity of the issue. While Beijing focused on Taiwan, Trump brought up Ukraine, as Washington intensifies efforts to end Russia’s war. Xi affirmed China supports “all efforts committed to peace,” reflecting Beijing’s intention to be more involved in the Ukraine process. (Wall Street Journal, 11.25.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron stated that any eventual U.S.-brokered peace plan for Ukraine must include strong security guarantees for both Ukraine and Europe and cautioned that the agreement should not become a de facto capitulation allowing Russia to later resume hostilities. (Washington Post, 11.24.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025

• On Saturday, the 19 nations attending the opening of the G20 summit in Johannesburg signed a joint statement saying that in the face of a “challenging political and socio-economic environment”, they endorsed a “belief in multilateral co-operation.” (Financial Times, 11.22.25)
• A dispute has erupted within the UK’s armed forces over how best to allocate defense spending to counter Russia, with the Royal Navy arguing it needs a larger share to address the primary threat from Russian submarines and sea-based missile attacks. The Army insists it requires investment to rebuild land forces amid evolving drone warfare, while the Ministry of Defense prepares a major long-term spending plan. UK allies in NATO and the U.S. are pushing for more focus on the Arctic and Atlantic, but funding remains uncertain. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025

• Russia is exploiting political polarization and societal vulnerabilities in the West to weaken NATO unity through hybrid tactics, including infrastructure attacks and disinformation, Sweden’s chief of defense staff Michael Claesson warned. Claesson cited Russian sabotage in Poland and manipulation of migrant and drug trafficking routes in North Africa as part of Moscow’s destabilization strategy. He urged NATO to reduce bureaucracy in defense procurement and warned that emphasizing domestic production could hamper rapid response to current threats. (Financial Times, 11.23.25)
• Dutch authorities are investigating a series of drone incursions that forced the closure of Eindhoven airport for several hours on Saturday, the latest in a string of such incidents targeting EU military and civilian infrastructure. The suspensions, which also affected operations at the nearby Volkel air base, come amid mounting concerns from EU and NATO officials over suspected Russian provocations and renewed calls for a continent-wide “drone wall” to improve Europe’s airspace security. (Financial Times, 11.23.25)

Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

• The British Royal Navy intercepted two Russian warships—a corvette and a tanker from the Black Sea Fleet—transiting through the English Channel in recent weeks, tracking them with HMS Severn before a NATO ally took over monitoring near France. UK officials say Russian naval movements near Britain have risen 30% in two years, amid broader concerns over potential threats to offshore infrastructure. Moscow called U.K. accusations “provocative” and insisted its ships posed no threat. (Moscow Times, 11.24.25

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• German and Romanian fighter jets scrambled on Nov. 25 to track the latest in a series of drone incursions into Romania's airspace as Russia continues to attack targets just across the Danube River in neighboring Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 11.25.25)
• The European Parliament approved a €1.5 billion program to deepen EU-Ukraine defense industry integration, including €300 million in direct Ukraine support, aiming to boost both Ukraine’s and Europe’s security and military capacity as the war continues and the U.S. pushes its peace plan. (Washington Post, 11.25.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese exporters have sharply increased prices for goods with potential military use sold to Russia, with export-controlled product prices rising 87% between 2021 and 2024, according to new Bank of Finland research. Analysts say this is due to Russia’s reliance on China amid Western sanctions, dramatically raising Moscow’s procurement costs and constraining its military-industrial capacity. Western officials see this price gouging by Chinese firms as a somewhat positive byproduct of sanctions. (Financial Times, 11.24.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• A survey on nuclear weapons and the prospect of nuclear conflict was conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation. The share of Russians who believe that “there is a threat of a military conflict involving nuclear weapons in the world” has fallen from 71% to 57% over two years. The number of those who consider such a conflict impossible has risen from 20% to 28%. Currently, 49% of Russians support complete nuclear disarmament worldwide, although two years ago that figure was 58%. It can be assumed that this change in attitudes toward nuclear weapons is related to recent tests of Russia’s Burevestnik and Poseidon missiles. The tests inspired many Russians: 14% said they felt excitement and joy; 10% felt pride in the country; 6% felt a sense of safety and national security. Only 5% of Russians reported feeling fear after the missile tests. (Politsovet.ru, 11.22.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A Russian state-linked hacking group known as RomCom targeted a U.S. engineering company this fall because the firm provided services to an American city with a sister-city relationship in Ukraine, according to U.S. cybersecurity firm Arctic Wolf. The attempted attack, detected and contained in September, reflects Russia’s expanding use of cyber operations against foreign organizations even loosely connected to Ukraine’s defense effort. Arctic Wolf highlighted that RomCom frequently targets groups supporting Ukrainian institutions or providing aid to Ukrainian municipalities and civil society. Recent U.S. government warnings have also noted an uptick in Russian cyber attempts against American infrastructure and organizations assisting Ukraine. (Washington Post, 11.25.25) 

Energy exports from CIS:

• Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) is considering a bid for Lukoil’s international assets, which the Russian energy giant is being forced to sell under U.S. sanctions. IHC joins other potential bidders, including private equity giant Carlyle and oil major Chevron, in examining parts or all of Lukoil’s $22 billion overseas portfolio. Any sale would require U.S. regulatory approval, and prospective buyers have until Dec. 13 to negotiate under current dispensation. Lukoil previously failed to secure a sale to Gunvor after U.S. objections. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)
• Russian state oil and gas revenue is projected to drop by about 35% in Nov. 2025 compared to the same month last year, falling to $6.59 billion mostly due to cheaper oil and a stronger ruble, according to Reuters calculations. This marks a significant economic strain for Moscow as energy revenue remains a key budget source amid increased defense spending; for the first 11 months of 2025, overall oil and gas revenue is expected to fall 22%. (Reuters, 11.24.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• As diplomats wrestle with core elements of peace in Ukraine, one element of the draft deal has gone largely overlooked: sweeteners based on an imagined blossoming of U.S.-Russia business. Proposals hashed out mostly by Kirill Dmitriev, who heads one of Russia’s sovereign wealth funds, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff envisage a “long-term economic cooperation agreement” between the countries, including energy, rare earths and data centers. A U.S.-Russian investment fund for joint projects would create “a strong incentive not to return to conflict.” There’s another interpretation: the two businessmen-turned-diplomats are trying to craft a strong incentive for President Donald Trump to stay on board. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• No significant developments.

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Kremlin officials have instructed Russian state-controlled media to blame the West for an upcoming VAT rise—from 20% to 22%—in order to shield President Vladimir Putin from criticism as his war economy strains ordinary Russians. Media outlets were told to avoid connecting Putin personally to the tax hike and instead emphasize Western “obstruction” of peace and increased defense needs. The internal guidelines underscore Moscow’s growing concern over budget pressures as energy revenues fall and fiscal sacrifices become unavoidable. (Financial Times, 11.22.25)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Alexander Samofal, an FSB officer implicated in the poisonings of opposition figures Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza, has been promoted to deputy head of the Moscow FSB. Documents reveal his involvement in political persecutions, including surveillance of journalists and activists. Samofal has been sanctioned by the EU for his attempted assassinations and also participated in poisoning other regime critics. His promotion follows a pattern of elevating officials linked to high-profile political repression and attacks. (Istories, 11.25.25)
• Russia’s FSB reported that its officers fatally shot two residents of Altai Krai who were suspected of preparing a sabotage operation on a railway; the suspects allegedly tried to install a device to derail a train and opened fire when authorities attempted to detain them. The FSB claims they were recruited via Telegram by a representative of a terrorist group and were found with illegal firearms. Criminal cases have been opened on charges of sabotage and illegal weapons possession. (Meduza, 11.24.25)

• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Tuesday that it arrested a 17-year-old in the western Kaliningrad region for allegedly trying to attack a Russian Orthodox church. (MT/AFP, 11.25.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia maintains a contingent of more than 120 personnel in Venezuela, led by Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, commander of the so-called Equator operational group. (Korrespondent.net, 11.23.25)
• Russian disinformation efforts targeting Latin America, especially Mexico, have intensified in the past two years, with Kremlin-backed outlets like RT and Sputnik dramatically expanding their reach and seeking to stoke anti-U.S. sentiment, according to a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable and watchdog reports. RT’s Spanish-language audience in Mexico jumped from 191,000 views in 2022 to 715 million in 2023, with U.S. officials warning that Russia aims to rupture U.S.–Mexican ties by infiltrating local media and political circles. (New York Times, 11.24.25)
• South African police are investigating claims that Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, daughter of former President Jacob Zuma, lured 17 men—some relatives—into fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine under false pretenses, after promising them security training jobs in Russia. (Washington Post, 11.25.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has placed Timur Mindich, a close associate of President Zelenskyy and co-founder of Kvartal-95, on the wanted list over his role in a major corruption case involving alleged embezzlement at state energy firm Energoatom. The anti-corruption bureau also listed businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman as wanted. Mindich reportedly fled to Israel just hours before searches began; both suspects face personal sanctions imposed by Zelenskyy. The corruption scandal has been overshadowed by debates over a new peace plan. (Meduza, 11.22.25)
• In Lviv region, Ukrainian military officials—including a unit commander, engineering chief, and a civilian accomplice—were suspended after allegedly embezzling over 10 million hryvnia by buying 133 generators at inflated prices. While the equipment’s real value was about 7 million hryvnia, officials paid more than 17 million, funneling the difference through shell companies and splitting the profits. All three face charges of large-scale embezzlement and have been placed under house arrest. (Korrespondent.net, 11.25.25)
• “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Nov. 22 ordered an audit of the war-torn country’s large defense industry, after a sweeping corruption probe uncovered graft in the battered energy sector. Though the investigation mostly concerned energy, it has also found fraud in contracts that provided for the protection of the grid, particularly vulnerable to relentless Russian bombardments. “A decision has also been prepared regarding a full review of state defense companies and relevant contracts,” Mr. Zelenskyy said on social media. “All findings on revealed violations will be forwarded to law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies,” he added." (Straits Times, 11.22.25)
• “A Kyiv resident promised a man to arrange documents for caring for an elderly mother for $14,000—he has been notified of suspicion. The man claimed that he had connections and acquaintances in social protection bodies and the TRC and JV, so he could easily arrange documents for a military conscript to care for his mother. The main condition was that she had to be over 60 years old. According to him, no one would check whether the woman actually needed care. For this service, he demanded $14,000, with the payment to be made in installments. The suspect sent his acquaintance to collect the money. In this way, he received $10,000 from his last client.” (Antikor, 11.25.25)
• “In Ukraine, 21 members of a criminal organization will stand trial for embezzling nearly 90 million hryvnias of bank depositors’ funds, among them former Minister of Coal Industry Viktor Topolov, who was the main owner of the "Zemelny Capital" bank. The criminal scheme involved issuing non-repayable loans secured by fictitious property, with the obtained funds used to finance Topolov’s business projects, purchase luxury real estate, and cars.” (Antikor, 11.25.25)
• The Pentagon has urged the House to investigate whether Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA) improperly consulted on behalf of the Ukrainian government before joining Congress, alleging that Vindman and his brother acted as "paid brokers" for American defense firms seeking contracts with Ukraine without required U.S. government approvals. Vindman denies the allegations, calling them politically motivated retaliation by the Trump administration, and insists he and his brother complied with all laws. The Pentagon referenced possible emoluments clause violations and deferred to the House on whether to open a formal inquiry. (Washington Post, 11.23.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus has pardoned 31 Ukrainian citizens as part of an agreement between President Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal, framed as a gesture to help settle the conflict in Ukraine, also led the U.S. to partially lift sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia. The pardoned Ukrainians are being transferred to Kyiv. The specifics of their offenses are unclear, but Belarus has a history of jailing critics and opposition as “extremists.” (The Moscow Times, 11.22.25)
• For the first time in 30 years, freight trains from Russia and Kazakhstan reached Armenia via Azerbaijan after Baku lifted its ban on transit. According to Meduza, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly announced the decision during an Oct. 21 meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, stating that the first transit cargo would be Kazakh wheat bound for Armenia—a claim Armenia’s economy minister quickly confirmed. (Meduza, October 2025)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday, marking the start of a three-day trip during which he is expected to meet with regional leaders. “The visit will be an important event in the development of strategic partnership and allied relations between the two countries,” a spokesperson from Kyrgyzstan’s presidential administration told the Interfax news agency ahead of Putin’s arrival. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov said earlier that Putin will hold informal talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Tuesday, then take part in official negotiations and sign a cooperation statement on Wednesday. The Russian leader will be accompanied by cabinet ministers and business figures, including billionaire Roman Abramovich, Ushakov said. He added that the Kremlin leader is also expected to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during the visit. This marks Putin’s second trip to Kyrgyzstan since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His previous visit, in October 2023, was his first foreign trip after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest on war crimes charges over the alleged deportation of Ukrainian children. (MT/AFP, 11.25.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• U.S. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent said with regard to EU’s 19^th package of sanctions on Russia: “The Europeans tell me, ‘Oh, we are doing our 19th sanctions package.’ In my mind… if you’re going to do something 19 times, you failed,” the treasury secretary said, instead praising Trump’s economic sanctions package on India, which targeted Russian oil. (NBC, 11.23.25)
• Michael Kofman said: “In 2025 Russia’s leadership made two bets, both of which were proven incorrect. The first is that through sustained pressure at some point there will be a collapse of Ukrainian defenses along the front. The second is that through diplomacy they will engage the incoming Trump administration such that even if there is no collapse along Ukraine’s front line, there may be a collapse of Western military assistance for Ukraine, led by the United States, and then they will ultimately achieve the same outcome.” (Washington Post, 11.25.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron warned at the G-20 summit in South Africa that the bloc "may be reaching the end of a cycle," citing the absence of the U.S. and struggles to maintain unified standards on geopolitical crises and humanitarian law—especially with wars such as Russia's in Ukraine. Macron said the G-20’s very existence is at risk and called for urgent collective re-engagement, reflecting on multilateral institutions' growing struggles as the summit saw reduced high-level participation. (Bloomberg, 11.23.25)
• Fiona Hill, member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, said “Things aren't going well for Ukraine, but neither for Russia. Both are stuck in this horrific war. Putin's determined to win the war one way or another. If it is not on the battlefield, then some other way. And this is it: winning in the information war and winning over the U.S. president and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to get what he wants. As for Trump, he has set a deadline for reaching this deal ahead of Thanksgiving. He wants this war settled by the end of the year and Thanksgiving is symbolic for him.” (LeMonde, 11.23.25)

Footnotes

1. Many senior officials inside the State Department and on the National Security Council were not briefed on the peace plan, the two people familiar with the plan said. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, who had been working with the Ukrainians on negotiating an end to the war and plans to step down in January, was also cut out of the talks led by Witkoff and Dmitriev, they said. One senior U.S. official said Secretary of State Marco Rubio was read in on the 28-point plan, but did not clarify when he was briefed. (Reuters, 11.22.25)
2. Full text of the 28-point peace plan drafts, as presented to Ukrainian side, can be accessed here (Axios). Full text of the European counterproposal can be accessed here (Reuters). Full Text Of The U.S. Draft Proposal For A Ukraine Security Guarantee,  as reported by Barak Ravid of Axios is available at this link. Joint statement on U.S.-Ukraine meeting is available here. Full text of Leaders’ statement on Ukraine, European Council, 11.22.25 is available here.
3. She said: “So, there were like a lot of information about 28-point peace plan presented by Special Envoy Witkoff, but in fact it is today that my president has confirmed that he accepted the plan--or the ideas, as it's called as of today--on how to end the war, and he received it from Secretary of Army Driscoll who came to Kyiv for a two-day visit”
4. According to Axios, the 28-point Ukraine proposal emerged from an improvised backchannel effort conceived by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on an Oct. 22 flight from the Middle East, where Kushner—fresh off his self-styled Gaza diplomacy—tried to replicate his earlier “draft-a-deal-and-force-momentum” approach. Within days, they met sanctioned Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Miami and, drawing on supposed “understandings” from the Trump-Putin Alaska summit, produced the initial draft that Trump quickly blessed—despite Kushner’s lack of Ukraine experience and his checkered record of overconfident deal-making in Palestine. The plan then accelerated into a formal proposal only after Kushner, Witkoff, and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll briefed Ukrainian officials, triggering global shock once its sweeping concessions and rushed rollout became public.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: France's Chief of the Defense Staff General Fabien Mandon, left, and French President Emmanuel Macron, second left, attend a video conference of the 'Coalition of the Willing' on Ukraine at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025. (Teresa Saurez, Pool Photo via AP)