4 Things to Know

1. The first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years ended on May 16 in about two hours and with no signs of meaningful progress other than a prisoner exchange deal as Ukrainian officials accused Russia of making "unacceptable" demands, RFE/RL reports. Despite offering to hold direct peace talks with Kyiv on May 15 in Istanbul in lieu of the 30-day ceasefire Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders demanded on May 10, Vladimir Putin ultimately did not attend, sending a midlevel delegation to Turkey instead. Zelenskyy, who reiterated his intention to meet with Putin directly throughout the week, slammed the move as disrespectful, saying “I think Russia’s attitude is unserious,” according to the New York Times. During the negotiations on May 16, Meduza reports that the Russian delegation reportedly said Moscow would agree to a ceasefire only if Ukraine withdrew its forces from the four regions Russia claims to have annexed (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia), according to Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll, citing a “well-placed” source. “Moscow also threatened to seize two more [regions]: Kharkiv and Sumy,” Carroll wrote. According to Carroll, Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said Russia does not “want war,” but is “ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes.”
2. Following the unsuccessful peace talks in Istanbul, Donald Trump said there’ll be no resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine until he meets with Putin, Bloomberg reports. “We have to meet. He and I will meet. I think we’ll solve it, or maybe not but at least we’ll know. And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting,” Trump said May 16, according to Bloomberg. “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together,” Trump said May 15. “And obviously he wasn’t going to go [to the talks in Istanbul]. He was going to go, but he thought I was going to go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there.”
3. The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression, the Financial Times reports. The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements—which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free—came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats, according to the Financial Times, and will cost Ukraine about €3.5 billion in revenue a year. The arrangements lapse on June 6, and the EU is planning to replace it with “transitional measures” while the two sides update their overall trade agreement.
4. Putin claimed May 13 that up to 60,000 people “volunteer” to join the Russian Armed Forces every month, compared to what he described as 30,000 Ukrainians being forcibly conscripted, MT/AFP report. Meanwhile, BBC News Russian and Mediazona have identified the names of 108,608 Russian soldiers who have died in the war in Ukraine, according to Meduza. There is no evidence that Ukraine’s recruitment efforts are any more coercive than Russia’s, and Russia’s problem is that in military terms, even double the rate of recruits doesn’t gain Russia much leverage because Ukraine is inflicting twice as many casualties per square mile, and three times as many military equipment losses as Ukraine, according to the latest calculations in Russia Matters’ May 14, 2025, Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. It is true that Ukraine’s casualties represent a higher percentage of its population (3.1%) as opposed to Russia’s (1.9%), according to the card. So how the recruitment numbers matter depends on whether they are used to imply victory or defeat (no), or the long-term costs of continued fighting (yes).*

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The White House is drafting plans to weaken the independence of the nation’s nuclear safety regulators and relax rules that protect the public from radiation exposure, moves it says are needed to jump-start a nuclear power “renaissance,” according to internal documents reviewed by The Washington Post. (The Washington Post, 05.09.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. is nearing an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear activities, telling business leaders during the final leg of his Gulf trip, “I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal.” (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Iran is preparing for a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran's government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani was quoted by Russia's state RIA news agency as saying on May 12. "Putin's trip to Tehran is currently being worked out, preparations are underway," Mohajerani said. There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 05.12.25)
• Iran dismissed claims that it plans to deliver missile launchers to Russia to support its war in Ukraine and called them “utterly ridiculous,” state-run IRIB News said, citing a statement from Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York. Reuters reported Friday that Iran was preparing to send launchers for short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, citing Western and regional officials. (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
• The Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) free trade deal with Iran went into effect on May 15, paving the way for increased trade across sectors ranging from agriculture to metals, a senior Russian official said. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The U.N.’s aviation council ruled on May 12 that Russia was responsible for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 that killed all 298 passengers and crew, including more than 200 Dutch and Australian citizens. Moscow criticized the ruling as being "biased.” In a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Moscow on May 14, Putin called for a “thorough and comprehensive investigation that was free from political influence.” He said the Kremlin was prepared to engage with organizations it deemed impartial. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25, RFE/RL, 05.13.25, Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Pope Leo XIV used his first Sunday address to call for peace in Ukraine and Gaza, building on the message of his predecessor, Pope Francis, and offering a glimpse into the likely geopolitics of his papacy. (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
• Russia has struck 25 hotels near Ukraine's front lines from the beginning of the war in 2022 through March in what appears to be a campaign to discourage journalism in the area, according to a report by the media rights group Reporters Without Borders and a Ukrainian organization, Truth Hounds. (Washington Post, 05.16.25)
• Germany has rejected the vast majority of asylum requests submitted by Russian men of draft age since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Berliner Morgenpost reported May 13. Just 349 of the 6,374 Russian men aged 18 to 45 who applied for asylum between early 2022 and April 2025 were granted protection, the paper wrote, citing Interior Ministry data. That includes either refugee status, asylum or protection from deportation. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 120 square miles in Ukraine (a little more than 1 Nantucket island), according to the May 14, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 05.14.25)
• In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 294 square kilometers (114 square miles), (a little more than 1 Nantucket island), in Ukraine, according to a May 14, 2025, estimate by The Economist. (RM, 05.14.25)
• As of May 13, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,757 square kilometers (43,536 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of the Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map. (RM, 05.14.25)
• A team of volunteers and journalists from BBC News Russian and Mediazona has identified the names of 108,608 Russian soldiers who have died in the full-scale war in Ukraine. The list includes more than 5,000 officers, among them 10 generals and 524 colonels and lieutenant colonels. One in four of those confirmed dead by BBC News Russian and Mediazona had signed a contract to serve in the Russian army after the war had already begun. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
• Russia returned the bodies of 909 Ukrainian soldiers killed in combat, Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said May 16. (MT/AFP, 05.16.25)
• Putin claimed May 13 that the Russian Defense Ministry is recruiting nearly twice as many soldiers as Ukraine’s military each month. Speaking at a Kremlin meeting on economic development, Putin claimed that up to 60,000 people “volunteer” to join the Russian Armed Forces every month, compared to what he described as 30,000 Ukrainians being forcibly conscripted. (MT/AFP, 05.13.25)
• Until recently, Ukrainian troops were at risk while getting critical supplies to the front lines. Now they're using fiber-optic ground drones, which are not vulnerable to electronic jamming from Russia, to do the job. The remotely controlled vehicles can deliver hundreds of kilograms of ammo, food, and water to troops, say operators. (RFE/RL, 05.15.25)
• One of the F-16 fighter jets provided to Ukraine by its Western allies was lost during a combat mission, the country’s Air Force said on May 16. According to a statement from Ukraine’s Air Force Command, contact with the aircraft was lost around 3 a.m. local time on May 16. Preliminary reports indicated that the pilot had shot down three aerial targets and was engaging a fourth when an emergency occurred on board. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
• At least 10 former prison inmates who joined the Russian army have escaped from a military training ground in southern Russia’s Rostov region, local media reported May 13, citing an anonymous law enforcement source. Four of the deserters were reportedly detained while attempting to flee the Rostov region, which borders Ukraine. Authorities have located two others and were preparing to detain them, the outlet’s source said. The whereabouts of the remaining four men were not immediately known. (MT/AFP, 05.13.25)
• Russia’s Orthodox Church has launched theological programs in the cities of Yekaterinburg and Rostov-on-Don aimed at training priests to work alongside the military. A master’s program called “Training and Interaction of Military Clergy With the Armed Forces” was announced May 15 on the Yekaterinburg Theological Seminary’s website. It did not specify when enrollment would begin or which courses would be offered. (MT/AFP, 05.16.25)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

• On May 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Makiivka, Oleksandropol and Rozlyv. (RM, 05.16.25)

Sunday, May 11, 2025

• Shortly after Putin made his remarks offering to hold direct peace talks with Kyiv on May 15 in Turkey, authorities in Kyiv said Russian forces had launched an air attack on the Ukrainian capital. (RFE/RL, 05.11.25)
• Kyiv on May 11 said that Moscow had launched more than 100 drones into Ukraine at night, shortly after a Russian 72-hour ceasefire had ended at midnight. Kyiv had not reported any drone attacks since May 8, when the Russian ceasefire came into effect, although it did accuse Moscow of violating the truce hundreds of times. “On the night of May 11 [from 2:00 am on May 11], the enemy attacked with 108 Shahed attack drones and various types of imitator drones,” Kyiv's air force said, adding that it had downed 60 of them. (MT/AFP, 05.11.25)
• On May 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Sribne and Vodyane Druhe. (RM, 05.16.25)

Monday, May 12, 2025

• On May 11–12, Russia launched dozens of drone attacks across Ukraine overnight, Ukraine’s Air Force said, effectively rejecting Kyiv’s call for a 30-day ceasefire to pave the way for peace talks. According to Ukrainian military officials, Russian forces began launching Iranian-made Shahed drones around 11:00 p.m. May 11, firing 108 drones across multiple regions. The Ukrainian Air Force said it shot down more than half of those drones. Ukrainian authorities reported damage in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk and Zhytomyr regions as a result of the strikes. Emergency officials said at least 22 people were injured in Russian attacks over the past day. (MT/AFP, 05.12.25)
• On May 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Toretsk, near Romanivka and Novooleynivka. (RM, 05.16.25)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

• On May 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Malynivka, Bahatyr and near Novosilka. (RM, 05.16.25)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

• On May 14, a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on the Belgorod region over the past day injured at least 16 people, regional authorities said. Meanwhile, Russia's Defense Ministry said that its forces destroyed 12 drones that Ukraine launched overnight, three of them over the Belgorod region. Tuesday's attacks came as authorities in the neighboring Kursk region said the body of an Uzbek national was found under the rubble of a hotel that was alleged to have been struck by a Ukrainian rocket over the weekend. Several others were injured in that attack, authorities said. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• On May 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Nove and advanced in Chasіv Yar, Malynivka and near Nova Poltavka. (RM, 05.16.25)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

• On May 14–15, Russia launched an overnight wave of drone attacks across Ukraine, damaging homes and sparking fires, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russian forces launched 110 drones overnight, including both attack drones and decoy drones. Of those, 62 were shot down, and 29 others crashed before reaching their targets. (Meduza, 05.15.25)
• Putin on May 15 sacked Russia's chief of land forces, Gen. Oleg Salyukov, the Kremlin said, in the latest removal of a high-profile military establishment figure amid the war in Ukraine. Salyukov, 70, will become a deputy to ex-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was removed last year and made Secretary of the Security Council. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25)
• On May 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Rozlyv and in Novooleksandrivka. (RM, 05.16.25)

Friday, May 16, 2025

• On May 15–16, Russia continued air strikes across Ukraine, launching more than 110 drones overnight, the Ukrainian air defense force said. Drones hit the capital Kyiv as well as the Odesa region, local officials said. At least three people were injured, Oleh Kiper, the head of the Odesa region’s military administration said on Telegram. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• No significant developments.

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The European Union is working on a new sanctions package that will target the Russian financial sector in the latest effort by Ukraine’s allies to place pressure on Putin to negotiate a peace deal to end the war. “We want peace and we have to increase the pressure on President Putin until he is ready for peace,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Tirana May 16. “And this is why we’re working on a new package of sanctions.” (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• European leaders are weighing the possibility of imposing punitive tariffs on imports from Russia after Putin failed to attend planned talks in Istanbul, Politico reports. According to the outlet’s sources, E.U., Ukrainian, and Turkish leaders are expected to discuss tightening sanctions against Russia during a meeting on May 16 in Albania. The sources said one of the proposals involves imposing steep duties—so-called punitive tariffs—on goods from Russia. The idea follows a recent proposal by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who called for 500 percent tariffs on imports from countries that continue to buy Russian oil, gas, and uranium. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
• Brussels is preparing to use capital controls and tariffs against Russia in case Hungary blocks the extension of the EU’s economic sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to its war in Ukraine. The European Commission has told national capitals that a large portion of the sanctions, including €200bn in frozen Russian state assets, could be moved on to a different legal basis to circumvent Budapest’s veto, five officials briefed on the ongoing discussions told the Financial Times. (Financial Times, 05.13.25)
• The promise of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has derailed European efforts to get the United States on board with imposing new sanctions on Russia if there is not an immediate 30-day ceasefire. (Washington Post, 05.14.25)
• If Putin declines the meeting with Zelenskyy or Russia doesn’t agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire on May 15, European leaders will urge Trump to follow through with his threat to sanction Moscow. (Bloomberg, 05.12.25)
• U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy was set to unveil fresh sanctions targeting Russia as Britain hosts a security meeting of European ministers for the first time. The sanctions will target “actors supporting Russia’s illegal invasion” of Ukraine, Britain’s Foreign Office said May 12 in an emailed statement. (Bloomberg, 05.12.25)
• For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, May 10, 2025

• Zelenskyy and a group of European leaders demanded on May 10 after talks in Kyiv that Russia join an “unconditional” 30-day ceasefire from May 12 to allow negotiations on ending the war or face crippling new sanctions, touting Trump’s backing of the proposal. (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
  • Zelenskyy met with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish premier Donald Tusk, and discussed the proposal in a 20-minute call with Trump that was described by a person familiar with the interaction as “warm.” (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
  • Trump May 10 evening in a post on Truth Social said such a ceasefire would be “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” in which “hundreds of thousands of lives” would be saved. (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Putin in a phone call on May 11 that Turkey was willing to host negotiations that would lead to “a permanent solution” to the war, his office said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)

Sunday, May 11, 2025

• "A full and unconditional cease-fire—one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy—could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are proposing it, and the whole world is calling for it," Zelenskyy wrote. "We await a clear response from Russia." Zelenskyy said Kyiv has "absolutely no problem engaging in negotiations, and we are ready for any format." (RFE/RL, 05.12.25)
• Putin ignored a call for quick 30-day cease-fire in the Ukraine war and instead offered to hold direct peace talks with Kyiv, possibly in Istanbul on May 15, “without preconditions.” Speaking to reporters at a middle-of-the-night briefing in Moscow on May 11, Putin offered to “restart” peace talks that were held by Russia and Ukraine in April 2022. "We are determined to have serious negotiations. Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict… and establish a long-term, lasting peace in the historical perspective," said Putin, "We do not exclude that, during these talks, we will be able to agree on some new cease-fire," Putin added. (RFE/RL, 05.11.25)
• Undercutting a weekend of European diplomacy, Trump on May 11 implored Ukraine to accept a Russian proposal for direct talks rather than insist on a cease-fire first—as had been laid out in a plan announced a day earlier by European leaders during a visit to Kyiv. (New York Times, 05.11.25)
  • Trump insisted that Ukraine meet with Russia to discuss ending their three-year war despite Russia’s reluctance to agree to a ceasefire that the U.S., Europe and Ukraine sought. “HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!” Trump said May 11 in a post on Truth Social. Zelenskyy signaled his agreement less than an hour later, saying on X he’ll be “waiting for Putin” on May 15 in Turkey—the venue the Russian president proposed early May 11 for talks “without any preconditions.” (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
  • “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on May 15, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump said. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible.” (Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 11 told Russian and French leaders that a “historic turning point” has been reached in efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and that Ankara was ready to host talks between the two warring parties, his office said. In a phone call with Putin on May 11, Erdogan welcomed the Russian leader's statement that peace talks should resume in Istanbul where they left off, his office announced. (MT/AFP, 05.11.25)

Monday, May 12, 2025

• Trump indicated it’s unlikely he’ll visit Turkey on May 15 for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, saying he would travel to the United Arab Emirates as planned. Earlier, Trump had raised the possibility of flying to Turkey on May 15 to join potential conversations over the war in Ukraine between Zelenskyy and Putin. “I was thinking about flying over,” Trump said May 12 at the White House. “I don’t know where I’m going to be on May 15—I’ve got so many meetings—but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen.” Shortly after Trump spoke, Zelenskyy posted on X that he would appreciate Trump joining the talks and said he hoped Russia “won’t evade the meeting.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to be in Antalya, Turkey, on May 14–16 for an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25, Bloomberg, 05.12.25, Bloomberg, 05.11.25)
• Trump has “issued an ultimatum” to Russia and Ukraine, saying that Washington will leave the negotiating table if they don’t engage in direct talks soon, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart in an interview published May 12. He added that key topics that must be addressed in the talks include control of Ukraine's occupied territories, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Ukraine’s access to the Dnipro River and the Black Sea. (Meduza, 05.13.25)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

• Zelenskyy reinforced his intention to hold direct talks with Putin in Turkey on May 15, even as the Russian leader offered no clarity on whether he’d show up. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)
• Zelenskyy intends to meet only with Putin when he travels to Turkey this week for potential peace talks, not with lower-level Russian officials, a top Ukrainian official said May 13. An anonymous White House official told CNN that Trump’s attendance would depend on whether Putin goes. “This is not a presidential-level meeting,” if Putin doesn’t show up, Zelenskyy’s adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak told exiled Russian journalist Alexander Plyushchev. “There is one decision-maker on Ukraine’s side… and one decision-maker in Russia.” (MT/AFP, 05.13.25)
• Russia is ready for serious talks in Istanbul, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on May 13 without elaborating on whether Putin would attend, according to Interfax. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)
• Zelenskyy appealed to Trump on May 13 to meet him this week for peace talks, saying it would put pressure on Putin to attend, but he cast doubt on Putin’s desire for either talks or peace. The Kremlin on May 13 declined to say whether Putin would travel to for a meeting in Turkey. (New York Times, 05.13.25)
• “If he takes the step to say he is ready for a ceasefire, then it opens the way to discussing all the elements to end the war,” Zelenskyy told reporters on May 13. If Putin refuses to show, “it means only one thing: that Russia is not ready for negotiations,” Zelenskyy said. In that case the U.S. and European partners must follow through with their threat to impose “strong sanctions” on Russia, he added. (Financial Times, 05.13.25)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

• Trump offered to make a detour and stop in Turkey during his trip to the Middle East if it will persuade Putin, to show up at talks aimed at moving toward a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow. "He'd like me to be there, and that's a possibility," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "I don't know that he would be there if I'm not there. We're going to find out." (RFE/RL, 05.14.25, MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
  • “Tomorrow, we’re all booked out, you understand that,” Trump told reporters on May 14. “We’re going to U.A.E. tomorrow. So we have a very full situation. Now that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t do it to save a lot of lives and come back. But, yeah, I’ve been thinking about it.” (New York Times, 05.14.25)
• Putin has no intention of accepting Zelenskyy’s offer to meet one-on-one in Istanbul, sources in the Russian government and the Foreign Ministry and people close to the Kremlin have told The Moscow Times. Although sources said Putin does not see Zelenskyy as his equal and will only agree to meet him in the event of his "public capitulation,” he cannot refuse the challenge outright because of Trump’s calls for the Russian leader to engage with his opponent. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• Putin late on May 14 named a group of low-level officials to represent his government at talks with Ukraine in Turkey, and gave no indication that he planned to join the negotiations. In a decree issued May 14, Putin appointed presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to lead the delegation that also includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, and Igor Kostyukov, head of military intelligence. A group of four other officials were named as “experts.” Medinsky also headed the ill-fated 2022 peace talks with Ukraine shortly after the full-scale invasion. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25, MT/AFP, 05.15.25)
• “We can’t agree on everything right away—that’s simply not possible. We have different views on life, different worldviews. But one way or another, we need to find a framework to end the war. There are certain things we need to agree on, and the technical details can be worked out separately,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with Der Spiegel. “If I meet with Putin, the meeting has to result in a political victory—a ceasefire or a prisoner exchange on an ‘all-for-all’ basis. And if he doesn’t show up, it means he’s not interested in a political victory—not for either country.” (Meduza, 05.14.25)
• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he plans to visit Russia to personally urge Putin to attend peace negotiations with Zelenskyy in Istanbul, Brazilian media reported May 14. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

• The anticipated round of Ukraine peace talks in Turkey descended into bluster and confusion on May 15, as Ukrainian and Russian delegations arrived in different cities and spent much of the day questioning whether they would even meet with one another. By evening, both sides indicated that the talks in some form were still on, but that they could be postponed until May 16. Zelenskyy, visiting the Turkish capital of Ankara, slammed the Kremlin for its “disrespect” in sending a midlevel delegation to Istanbul, where Russia wanted the talks to take place. (New York Times, 05.15.25)
  • “There is no time of the meeting, there is no agenda of the meeting, there is no high-level delegation,” Zelenskyy said at a news conference after sitting down with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. “I think Russia’s attitude is unserious.” (New York Times, 05.15.25)
• Trump said there’ll be no resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine until he meets with Putin, as a delegation from Kyiv set off to Istanbul for potential ceasefire talks with Moscow counterparts. “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together,” Trump told reporters May 15 on board Air Force One as he traveled to the United Arab Emirates. “And obviously he wasn’t going to go. He was going to go, but he thought I was going to go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there.” (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
  • Trump claimed that Putin chose not to attend talks in Istanbul because Trump himself did not go. “Why would he go if I'm not going?” Trump told reporters. (Meduza, 05.15.25)
• Zelenskyy said he had approved a team of negotiators led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to travel to Istanbul for talks with Russia in the presence of U.S. and Turkish officials on May 15 or May 16. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Upon his arrival in Ankara, Zelenskyy held a brief press conference at the Ankara airport. “We will start our meetings with President Erdoğan and Turkey’s full extended delegation. We’re in contact with the U.S. side, who I believe will also be present in Turkey at a high level. We’ll see what level the Russians show up at—so far, officially it’s unknown, but from what we’ve seen, theirs looks like more of a prop delegation. We’ll see if they actually have a mandate to make decisions,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 05.15.25)
• “The first step should be a ceasefire,” Zelenskyy told reporters after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. “If such things as an unconditional ceasefire have to be determined in direct talks between the leaders—I am here, we are ready for direct talks.” (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky gave a statement to journalists outside the city’s Russian consulate. Medinsky said Russia views direct talks with Ukraine as a continuation of the peace process that was interrupted in 2022. The goal of the negotiations, he added, is to “eventually reach a lasting peace by addressing the root causes of the conflict.” He said that the Russian delegation has the necessary authority and expertise to conduct negotiations. (Meduza, 05.15.25)
• On May 15, Rubio met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha in Antalya on the sidelines of a NATO meeting. The top U.S. diplomat said Washington was growing “impatient” with stalled peace efforts and was now open to “virtually any mechanism” that could lead to a breakthrough. (MT/AFP, 05.16.25)
  • “I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face-to-face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are moving forward,” Rubio told reporters in Antalya, Turkey, following a meeting of NATO foreign ministers there on May 15. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)

Friday, May 16, 2025

• The first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in more than three years ended in about two hours and with no signs of progress other than a prisoner exchange deal as Ukrainian officials accused Russia of making "unacceptable" demands. (RFE/RL, 05.16.25)
  • Negotiating teams from the two sides met in Istanbul’s Dolmabahce Palace on May 16, hosted by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Russia’s representatives set out demands for full control of five regions of Ukraine during the talks in which both delegations used an interpreter, according to a person familiar with the meeting. “We’re spending great effort in order to end the war,” Fidan said at the start of the meeting. “It is important that this meeting may form the basis for a meeting between the leaders” of Ukraine and Russia, he said. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
  • A prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine involving 1,000 people from each side may take place in the near future, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said after talks in Istanbul, according to RBC Ukraine. “We know the date, but we’re not disclosing it yet,” he said. Umerov said the negotiations addressed “all modalities” of a possible ceasefire and added that further details would be shared later. He also noted that the talks included discussion of a potential meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
  • Russia’s demands during the talks in Istanbul were “unrealistic” and far exceeded the scope of previous discussions, Reuters reported, citing a source within Ukrainian diplomatic circles. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
  • During negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, the Russian delegation threatened to seize the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, according to Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll, citing a “well-placed” source. According to the source, the Russian delegation said Moscow would agree to a ceasefire only if Ukraine withdrew its forces from the four regions Russia claims to have annexed (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia). “Moscow also threatened to seize two more [regions]: Kharkiv and Sumy,” Carroll wrote. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
  • Carroll reported that Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said Russia does not “want war,” but is “ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes.” According to Carroll, Medinsky added, “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” Carroll also cited another statement attributed to Medinsky: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.” (Meduza, 05.16.25)
  • Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko also reported that the Russian side had threatened to seize the Sumy region during the talks. (Meduza, 05.16.25)
  • The meeting itself marked a tactical win for Putin, who managed to start the talks without first agreeing to a battlefield cease-fire that Ukraine and almost all of its Western backers had sought as a precondition for negotiations. (New York Times, 05.16.25)
• Speaking to European leaders in Tirana, Albania, on May 16, Zelenskyy said it was necessary to “clearly define which issues must be handled at the leadership level—not below,” adding “we all know who truly makes the decisions in Russia.” The Russian negotiating team is in constant contact with the president, who’s receiving information in real time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said May 16, according to the Interfax news service. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• European leaders in Albania on May 16 accused Putin of undermining the negotiations. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Europeans should show “absolute unity” in renewing demands for a ceasefire. “This is clear evidence that Putin doesn’t seriously want peace,” Starmer said in Tirana. “He’s dragging his heels.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, also in Tirana, told reporters Putin “made a mistake by sending a low-level delegation.” (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• Trump said he might call the Russian leader and would meet him “as soon as we can set it up.” The president told reporters aboard Air Force One that he “may” call Putin to get talks on track. “We have to meet. He and I will meet. I think we’ll solve it, or maybe not but at least we’ll know. And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting,” Trump said on his way back to the U.S. (New York Times, 05.16.25, Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said Moscow agreed that a meeting between the Russian and U.S. leaders was necessary. But he noted that such a summit would require careful preparation to yield results. (New York Times, 05.16.25)
• Rubio met with the French, British and German national security advisers in Istanbul to discuss the continuing Russian invasion. While he isn’t taking part in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Rubio earlier held talks with the Ukrainian and Turkish foreign ministers. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• The U.S. was set to be represented by Director for Policy Planning Michael Anton at working level talks with the Russian delegation on May 16, according to State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce. Anton met with Medinsky before the Ukraine-Russia talks began. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• U.S., Ukrainian, and Turkish delegations met at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace on May 16 morning, according to BBC News and Suspilne. The U.S. side was represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Keith Kellogg, among other officials. Representatives from Ukraine included the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Representing Turkey were the head of the country’s National Intelligence Organization, İbrahim Kalın, and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. (Meduza, 05.16.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia deployed a fighter jet in NATO airspace this week after Estonia tried to inspect a so-called shadow fleet tanker passing the EU-member’s economic area, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said. The spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry didn’t mention the incident in a weekly briefing nor was a question asked, although a video purportedly of the flyover has appeared widely in Russian media. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
  • Estonia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian embassy’s top official after the incident. Portuguese F-16 jets stationed in Estonia responded to the intrusion by a Russian SU-35 fighter jet, the Baltic nation’s military said in a statement on May 14. The Russian jet, which entered Estonian airspace for less than a minute, had no radio contact with air traffic controllers and no flight plan, while its transponder was turned off, the statement said. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25)
• “Russia has started re-arming in the Arctic region,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who led NATO for five years until 2014. That includes Russia opening air bases and other military installations and making “significant” investments in Arctic capabilities, he said. “We have to take this seriously,” Fogh Rasmussen said May 12. “They clearly have territorial ambitions in the region. In response, NATO should develop an Arctic strategy and take on a stronger role.” (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)
• NATO allies have started cobbling together an agreement to significantly boost defense spending in a way that may assuage U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand to spend 5% of economic output on the military. Negotiators in the military alliance are making progress on a path to achieve 5% of gross domestic product on defense and defense-related spending by 2032 ahead of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in The Hague in June, according to diplomats familiar with the matter. NATO foreign ministers will discuss the initiative at a meeting in the Turkish resort city of Antalya May 14 and May 15. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said his country is prepared to move toward spending 5% of its economic output on defense. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25, Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• U.S. military leaders are increasingly concerned that the United States faces the prospect of global flashpoints turning into prolonged, multifront confrontations stoked by its main adversaries—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Amid tightening ties between the four countries, this likely means that short, geographically contained wars—the kind of confrontations that the U.S. military has largely anticipated—are things of the past, U.S. military officials said on May 13 in Washington at a conference hosted by CSIS. (RFE/RL, 05.14.25)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his government’s top priority is to transform the nation’s military into Europe’s strongest conventional army to help counter the rising threat from Russia. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25)
• The U.S. approved the sale of $304 million-worth of missiles to Turkey as the NATO allies work to strengthen trade and defense ties. Turkey has requested 53 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles at an estimated cost of $225 million and 60 Block II missiles at $79.1 million, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Poland ordered the closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow after saying it has proof that a large fire in the country’s capital last year was ordered by Moscow’s secret services, according to the Polish foreign minister. Polish prosecutors said late on May 11 they had proof that the blaze at the sprawling Marywilska 44 shopping mall in Warsaw in May last year was coordinated by the Russian security services. Some of those involved in the crime were arrested, while the person in charge of the operation is currently in Russia, according to the statement. (Bloomberg, 05.12.25)
• Three Ukrainians have been arrested for their suspected involvement in the shipment of exploding packages, German prosecutors said on May 14, after a series of fires at European courier depots pointed to suspected Russian sabotage. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• China may within a decade possess scores of orbiting missiles with nuclear payloads capable of reaching the U.S. with much shorter flight times than traditional intercontinental ballistic missiles, the Defense Intelligence Agency said May 13. The agency released a chart as a prelude to a White House announcement regarding threats to the U.S. that the Golden Dome missile defense umbrella, a priority of President Donald Trump, would counter. The chart depicted potential advancements in increased traditional intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities among adversaries, including China, Iran and Russia. China, according to the chart, could field as many as 700 nuclear-tipped ICBMs by 2035 up from 400 today; Iran 60, up from none today. Russia’s inventory could grow to 400 from 350 now. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)

Nuclear arms:

• French President Emmanuel Macron said he was “ready to open a discussion” with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defenses against Russia. (Financial Times, 05.13.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Trump, swiftly dismantling decades of U.S. government policy that treated Syria like a pariah, held an extraordinary meeting on May 14 with its president, Ahmed al-Shara, the former leader of a rebel group designated as a terrorist organization by the American government. (New York Times, 05.14.25)
• Trump said he’ll lift U.S. sanctions against Syria following the toppling of former President Bashar al-Assad, a boost to the war-ravaged country’s ambitions of rejoining the international community. “I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness,” Trump said in an address to a Saudi-U.S. investment summit in Riyadh on May 13. “It’s their time to shine.” (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s oil-export revenues in April fell to the lowest in nearly two years as global crude prices declined amid sluggish demand, according to the International Energy Agency. The nation earned $13.2 billion from the export of crude oil and petroleum products last month, the lowest since June 2023. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• The European Union on May 14 approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting its so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and warning of harsher measures if Moscow fails to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire. Key elements include the blacklisting of around 200 oil tankers suspected of helping Russia circumvent restrictions on its oil exports. Sanctions will also target companies in countries such as Vietnam, Serbia and Turkey that are accused of supplying goods to the Russian military. Dozens of Russian individuals are set to be added to the EU’s sanctions list, which already includes nearly 2,400 people and entities facing asset freezes and visa bans. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• India has approved three Russian insurers, including a unit of top lender Sberbank, to provide marine cover to ships arriving at Indian ports, a government notification shows, helping Moscow maintain oil supplies to a key market. (MT/AFP, 05.13.25)
• Kazakhstan is set to raise its seaborne crude exports to a near record next month as tensions persist between Astana and its partners in the OPEC+ alliance over how much the landlocked country should be pumping. (Bloomberg, 05.14.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A senior member of Russia’s lower house of parliament on May 12 called U.S. President Donald Trump “weak” for downplaying the Soviet Union’s role in World War II. Trump claimed over the weekend that Allied powers were “not even close” to defeating Nazi Germany before the United States intervened in the conflict. “I’m not bothered by Trump because it seems he’s weak in history. And self-promotion using others’ victories is a sign of weakness,” Andrei Kartapolov, chair of the State Duma’s defense committee, told pro-government media. (MT/AFP, 05.12.25)
• Kseniia Petrova, a Russian researcher at Harvard Medical School was charged May 14 with illegally smuggling frog embryos in her luggage on a plane flight. Petrova has been held in custody since mid-February, when customs agents detained her at Boston’s Logan Airport on her return from France because she failed to declare biological material she brought into the U.S. as part of her research. The U.S. government is aware that she has been persecuted in Russia “for protesting against the Putin regime,” her lawyer said. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
  • Petrova will be transferred to Massachusetts and face felony smuggling charges there, a federal judge in Louisiana said on May 15. (New York Times, 05.15.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s currency rose to its strongest level against the dollar in two years May 15 as negotiators arrived in Turkey for what are expected to be the first direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv since 2022 and domestic appetite for foreign-currency dropped. (Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Price growth in Russia likely halted its acceleration in April for the first time in six months, bolstering the case for kicking off long-awaited monetary easing. Annual inflation was probably 10.3% last month, slightly lower than 10.34% in March, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, in part due to the ruble’s recent gains and record-high interest rates. (Bloomberg, 05.16.25)
• Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, announced May 11 that the State Duma plans to begin reviewing a bill in mid-May that would “tighten administrative liability for those residing abroad.” In a post on Telegram, Volodin said that the proposal would make it possible to bring misdemeanor charges against individuals outside the country if they commit offenses “directed against Russia’s interests.” (Meduza, 05.12.25)
• Russia’s Civic Initiative party said May 15 that authorities are seeking to dissolve it over “inactivity,” a year after the center-right party nominated the only anti-war candidate in the country’s presidential 2024 race. Civic Initiative’s most recent nominee, Boris Nadezhdin, was disqualified from the 2024 presidential race over alleged irregularities in his endorsement signatures. (MT/AFP, 05.16.25)
• A Moscow court on May 14 sentenced prominent Russian election monitor Grigory Melkonyants to five years in prison after finding him guilty of working for an “undesirable organization.” Melkonyants co-founded the election watchdog Golos, which rose to become one of Russia’s most prominent and respected monitoring groups. (RFE/RL, 05.14.25)
• A Moscow court sentenced exiled businessman Sergei Pugachev to 14 years in prison in absentia on charges of embezzlement and misappropriation on May 13, more than a decade after his bank collapsed and he fled the country. Pugachev, once a powerful senator and founder of Mezhprombank, was known in the 2000s as “Putin’s banker” due to his close ties to the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 05.13.25)
• A Moscow court has fined Medusa Project SIA 400,000 rubles (almost $5,000) for “violating the procedure for the activities of a foreign agent.” The Telegram channel of Moscow’s courts of general jurisdiction, which reported the ruling, did not disclose the specific basis for the case. (Meduza, 05.15.25)
• Law enforcement authorities searched the offices of Russia’s largest book publisher and arrested several employees over alleged LGBTQ+ “propaganda” and “extremism,” Russian media and rights groups reported May 15. According to the state-run TASS news agency, 11 employees of Eksmo Publishing House were arrested on May 14. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25)
• Moscow’s Metro installed a replica of a long-removed monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, further fueling debate over Russia’s steady rehabilitation of his image under President Vladimir Putin. The life-sized bas-relief, first unveiled in 1950 at Taganskaya Station, was dismantled in the 1960s during the Soviet Union’s de-Stalinization campaign. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25) Putin’s continuing investment in identifying his rule in Russia with the Soviet accomplishment of the defeat of Nazi Germany makes it both logical and necessary for him to continue to rehabilitate Stalin, a leader who is eclipsed only by China’s Mao as the ruler most lethal to his own people in modern times.
• Putin approved a set of emergency support measures aimed at stabilizing Russia’s struggling coal sector, including transportation discounts and guaranteed export agreements for key mining regions, Russian media reported May 14. Russia’s coal industry has been hit hard by Western sanctions, high production costs, falling global prices and logistical bottlenecks. “The crisis in the coal industry has become so severe that entire production facilities are being forced to shut down,” Deputy Energy Minister Dmitry Islamov told lawmakers at a State Duma energy committee hearing. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• Private clinics in the northwestern Vologda region have begun halting abortion services, the region’s governor announced May 14, coming amid broader efforts across the country to increase fertility rates. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the ex-commander of Russia's invasion forces in Ukraine who disappeared from the public eye in 2023, is now working in Algeria, according to pro-war Telegram channels. (Meduza, 05.13.25)
• Kazakhstan on May 15 denied reports that Russia plans to abandon its lease on the Baikonur Cosmodrome before it expires in 2050, amid speculation that Moscow may be preparing to ditch the historic launch site. Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Two former executives of the Russian explosives manufacturer Avangard, Stanislav Shevchuk, who led the EU-sanctioned state enterprise from November 2023 to October 2024, and his former deputy Mikhail Bogoyavlensky, have been arrested on charges of abuse of power and bribery, the RBC news outlet reported May 15, citing the FSB. (MT/AFP, 05.15.25)
• A court in southern Russia on May 14 sentenced four men to 10 years in prison each for participating in an anti-Israeli riot at an airport in the republic of Dagestan more than a year ago. The four men—Arsen Arbuliyev, Malik Aliyev, Saidpandi Abdulazizov and Nazhmudin Abakarov—were found guilty of participating in mass riots and violating transportation safety rules, the Stavropol regional prosecutor’s office said. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities issued an international arrest warrant for an exiled former senator and oil executive accused of fraud, media reported May 12, citing Moscow’s court system. Viktor Khoroshavtsev is accused of embezzling almost 9 billion rubles ($111 million), the Kommersant business newspaper reported early May 12. (MT/AFP, 05.12.25)
• Authorities in the Siberian republic of Buryatia on May 13 declared a regionwide state of emergency as firefighters continued to battle rapidly spreading wildfires blamed on human activity. Buryatia, which borders Mongolia, is the second-hardest hit region in Russia during this year’s wildfire season, with some 53,000 hectares (131,000 acres) currently burning. Wildfires in Far East Russia’s Zabaikalsky region continue to grow amid strong winds and dry weather, the country’s Aerial Forest Protection Service said May 11, with firefighters racing to prevent flames from spreading to populated areas. (MT/AFP, 05.13.25, MT/AFP, 05.12.25)
• At least three people were seriously injured and one remains missing after an explosion and fire at a candle factory in the republic of Bashkortostan, emergency authorities said May 16. The blaze broke out around 8 a.m. local time at the Svecha plant in the city of Salavat, located around 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) southeast of Moscow. (MT/AFP, 05.12.25)

• Nearly 30,000 people were left without power while coal miners were evacuated to the surface following a power station accident in Siberia’s Kemerovo region on May 16. (MT/AFP, 05.16.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Six Bulgarian nationals who were part of a Russian spy ring run by Wirecard’s fugitive ex-chief operating officer were sentenced to as long as 10 years in prison by a London judge. (Bloomberg, 05.12.25)
• Putin hosted Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in the Kremlin on May 14 for talks focused on economic cooperation amid Western sanctions. The meeting came two days after the UN's civil aviation body held Russia responsible for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine. Despite the timing, Putin said the talks covered a “full range” of bilateral and international issues, resulting in “concrete plans” to deepen ties. (MT/AFP, 05.14.25)

Ukraine:

• The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression. The decision to abruptly end special trade arrangements—which allowed most Ukrainian goods to enter the EU duty free—came after Poland led a push to protect the bloc’s farmers, according to diplomats. The EU has an existing free trade deal with Ukraine but went further in the wake of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion and temporarily suspended remaining duties. These arrangements lapse on June 6 and the EU is planning to replace it with “transitional measures” while the two sides update their overall trade agreement. Ukraine’s government estimates that a return to prewar trade conditions would reduce its revenues by about €3.5bn a year. The European Commission plans to reintroduce limits on purchases of Ukrainian wheat, corn, barley, poultry, eggs and other products from June through December, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg News. (Financial Times, 04.15.25, Bloomberg, 05.15.25)
• Ukraine and the U.S. have signed additional agreements concerning a natural resources deal, a key demand of U.S. President Donald Trump which is crucial for sustaining military aid for Kyiv. Two documents outlining the operation of an investment fund jointly established by Kyiv and Washington were signed on May 13, the press office of Ukraine’s Economy Ministry told reporters in Kyiv. However, in the view of companies and industry veterans, the resources deal will not yield mining production for at least a decade and require huge private sector investment to get projects off the ground. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25, Financial Times, 05.13.25)
• A Financial Times investigation, based on leaked Ukrainian state documents, court filings and dozens of interviews with procurement officials, weapons dealers and manufacturers, and detectives, has uncovered how hundreds of millions of dollars Kyiv paid to foreign arms intermediaries to secure vital military equipment has gone to waste over the past three years of war. (Financial Times, 05.16.25)
• Oleh Hladkovsky, the former first deputy secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), has been detained in Spain and faces extradition in relation to a graft case. Hladkovsky, formerly known as Oleh Svinarchuk until 2014, was a key business partner of Ukraine’s ex-President Petro Poroshenko. Hladkovsky headed the Bogdan Corporation, where Poroshenko also held shares. Investigators allege that Hladkovsky abused his official position to benefit PJSC “Automobile Company Bogdan Motors,” in which he and his close associates had ownership stakes. (Kyiv Post, 05.14.25)
• The European Union is discussing ways to prevent Hungary from undermining the opening of accession talks with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. According to the people, members believe Budapest aims to torpedo the process with Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s plan to hold a ‘national consultation’ on Ukraine’s EU membership—despite Hungary’s prior approval to open the accession talks in 2023. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Kazakhstan signed a $1.1 billion investment accord with a United Arab Emirates’ aviation services provider to develop the capital’s airport, building on a deal reached two years ago. (Bloomberg, 05.13.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Ramil Sitdikov, Sputnik Pool Photo via AP.