The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, May 14, 2025

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive

May 13 update: In the last week, Russian forces gained 33 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1 ½ Manhattan islands), identical to its gains the previous week. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces have doubled their small hold on Russian territory, gaining 5 square miles in the last week for a total of 10 square miles as peace talks are expected between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey on May 15. While Zelenskyy has reaffirmed his intention to hold direct talks with Putin in Istanbul, the Kremlin has declined to say whether the Russian leader will attend.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of May 13, 2025)

For a higher-resolution image, click here (full screen button in top right).

 

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory and changes in Ukraine’s control of Russian territory

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +27,443 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to half the size of New York state).1
  • Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia: +44,068 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio.)
  • In past month (April 15–May 13, 2025): Russia gained 120 square miles. (Area equivalent to a little more than 1 Nantucket island.)2
  • In past week: Russia gained 33 square miles (about 1 1/2 Manhattan islands)—identical to gains from the previous week. In Russia, Ukraine doubled its toehold from 5 square miles last week to 10 square miles this week, gaining in both the Kursk and Belgorod regions of Russia.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–April 2025. (Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

 

Military casualties  

  • Russia: More than 790,000 killed or injured, according to an April 2025 estimate by Cavoli.3 48,000 missing.4
  • Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate by Zelenskyy.5 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

  • Russia:  652 killed.6
  • Ukraine: 12,910 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment7

  • Russia: 21,689 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 12,728.
    • Aircraft: 305.8
    • Naval vessels: 22.
  • Ukraine: 8,837 lost.
    • Tanks and armored vehicles: 4,519.
    • Aircraft: 183.9
    • Naval vessels: 35.10

Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian interceptions 11

In April 2025

  • Russia launched
    • 2,760 drones
    • 34 ballistic missiles
    • 92 cruise missiles
  • Ukraine intercepted
    • 1,383 drones
    • 8 ballistic missiles
    • 56 cruise missiles 

Since September 2022

  • Russia launched
    • 29,400 drones
    • 422 ballistic missiles
    • 3,513 cruise missiles
  • Ukraine intercepted
    • 19,507 drones
    • 69 ballistic missiles
    • 2,438 cruise missiles

 

Citizens displaced

  • Russia:
    • 800,000 left Russia for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
    • 112,000 were displaced in Russia’s Kursk region during Ukraine’s incursion in August 2024–March 2025.
  • Ukraine: 10.6 million displaced Ukrainians as of February 2025, 23% of Ukraine’s pre-invasion population of 44 million.
    • Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
    • International refugees: 6.9 million.

Economic impact12

  • Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
    • Russian ruble: 0.01252 U.S. dollars. +5% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 16.59%.
  • Ukraine’s economic growth (negative): -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
    • 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
    • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
    • Ukrainian hryvnia: 0.02412 U.S. dollars. -27% since the invasion.
    • 3-year bond yield: 24.8%.

Infrastructure

  • Russia:  
    • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
    • A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2025 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector have caused at least 60 billion rubles ($714 million) in damage.
  • Ukraine:  
    • Ukraine's extensive transmission infrastructure has suffered severe damage in the war, with capacity falling from 56 GW to an estimated 9 GW by the end of 2024.
    • Some 64%, or 36 out of Ukraine’s 25 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied as of 2024.
    • Ukraine had lost 80% of its thermal capacity due to Russian attacks as of September 2024.
    • Ukraine relied for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls, as of 2024.

Popular support

  • Russia:  61% support peace negotiations.
  • Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

  • Ammunition supply
  • Foreign military aid
  • Force generation
  • Military leadership
  • Training
  • Morale
  • Control of strategic locations
  • Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

 

Footnotes

  1. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of May 13, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,757 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,536 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory.
  2. In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 294 square kilometers (114 square miles), according to a May 14, 2025 estimate by The Economist.
  3. Here are more estimates of Russian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
  4. 600,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
  5. 1,000,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
  6. More than 750,000 killed or injured, according to a March 2025 estimate by DNI/U.S. intelligence community.
  7. Ukraine’s “Want to Find” project set to count number of Russian MIAs has 84,000 entries as of early 2025.
  8. Here are more estimates of Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded [in chronological order]:
  9. 400,000 killed or injured, according to Trump’s December 2024 estimate.
  10. 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded, according to Zelenskyy’s December 2024 estimate.
  11. 700,000 killed, according to Trump’s January 2025 estimate.
  12. Millions” killed in the war, according to Trump’s April 2025 estimate.
  13. This estimate was given by Russia’s Investigative Committee in March 2025. The Russian Foreign Ministry estimates that 292 civilian individuals were killed by Ukrainian strikes on the territory of Russia  in January-April 2025.
  14. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
  15. Not being updated as of 2025. In May 2025 Ukraine claimed to have shot down two Russian Su-30s by missiles launched from drone boats.
  16. Ukraine lost one F-16 in April 2025.
  17. Not being updated as of 2025.
  18. Jensen, Benjamin and Yasir Atalan, “Russian Firepower Strike Tracker: Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 17, 2024, https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine?f%5B0%5D=content_type%3Aarticle&f%5B1%5D=content_type%3Areport Note that due to limitations associated with refreshing of attack  and intercept data, this section of the scorecard is updated once a month.
  19. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Trading Economics, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,”  https://tradingeconomics.com/ruge3y:gov ; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.

*This card was produced by RM staff, Avoiding Great Power War research assistant Maryana Shnitser and Belfer Center Avoiding Great Power War Project researcher Quinn Urich.