This Week’s Highlights

• After Russia’s near-total conquest of the Azov sea port of Mariupol, Russian officials appeared to be laying the groundwork for annexing swaths of southeast Ukraine, according to NYT. Shoigu said on May 20 that 1,908 Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol and that Moscow was nearing full control of Ukraine's eastern separatist region of Luhansk, AFP reported.
• The U.N. has confirmed more than 8,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, but warned that the actual number was likely to be considerably higher, FT reported.
• The United States said it is unlikely to extend a license that allows Russia to pay U.S. bondholders beyond May 25, prompting Russia’s Finance Ministry to push through $100 million in interest payments due under the country's foreign-currency debts, ahead of the deadline, WSJ and RFE/RL reported.
• In a highly unusual move, former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng spoke against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Diplomat reported. According to Gao, the odds are stacked so heavily against Putin that “it’s only a matter of time before Russia is fully defeated.”
• Biden called Sweden and Finland's applications for NATO membership "a watershed moment in European security,” BBC reported. Putin said “there is no direct threat for Russia” from NATO’s expansion into Finland and Sweden, but warned that Moscow would respond if they deployed new military hardware there. Shoigu says Moscow will form 12 new units and divisions in response to the planned expansion, RFE/RL reported. Russia has already suspended its electricity supply to Finland and will suspend gas supplies to Finland on May 21, NYT reported.
• Putin and leaders of other CSTO members gathered for a summit on May 16 to adopt a communique that said the collective security organization is prepared for “practical interaction with NATO.” The document contains no references to Ukraine and only Lukashenko spoke up to support Putin on Ukraine during the summit, according to NYT.
• Russia’s current account surplus more than tripled in the first four months of the year to $95.8 billion, the central bank said, according to Bloomberg.
• Mortgage loans in Russia fell by 77% in April, their largest margin ever, MT reported.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The EBRD has asked for international donors to help repair the damage left after Russian forces' control of the Chernobyl NPP area. It says initial calculations suggest it will cost at least 100 million euros to repair. (WNN, 05.19.22)
• Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, on a visit to the occupied areas of southeastern Ukraine, said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) will provide electricity to Russia. Ukraine’s electricity grid operator Ukrenergo said the country’s power system has no physical connections with Russia’s power system and that “any change in the situation at ZNPP will mean an act of nuclear terrorism.” (MT, 05.19.22)
• The IAEA plans to send its next nuclear safety, security and safeguards mission to Chernobyl in the coming weeks, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said May 17. (Nuclear Engineering International, 05.20.22.)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Four U.S. lawmakers on May 12 asked the CEOs of YouTube, TikTok, Twitter and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. to archive content that could be used as evidence of suspected Russian war crimes in Ukraine. (Reuters, 05.12.22) 
• Global wheat production is to total 774.8 million tons in the 2022-23 crop season, the first decline since the 2018-19 season, according to a U.S. government forecast of the upcoming crop season, confirming fears of a further tightening of supply. (FT, 05.13.22)  
• On Saturday, 37,000 people left Ukraine via crossings to the European Union and Moldova, and 46,000 entered the country. The influx of Ukrainian refugees entering Germany has slowed to around 2,000 people a day.  (WSJ, 05.15.22, RFE/RL, 05.14.22)
• At least 10 civilians have been killed by Russian shelling of a city in eastern Ukraine, the governor of the Luhansk region said. (RFE/RL, 05.16.22)
• Prosecutor General of Ukraine Irina Venediktova announced the identies of 45 Russian nationals suspected of committing war crimes on the territory of Ukraine. (Meduza, 05.16.22)
• The U.S. State Department has announced the launch of a new program to capture and analyze evidence of war crimes and other atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.17.22)
• The U.N.’s children's agency says war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem of severe hunger among a growing number of children. The war also threatens tens of millions of people with food insecurity, malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said. (RFE/RL, 05.17.22, WSJ, 05.19.22)
• The Russian village of Bezymeno 50 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv was damaged in an attack that wounded at least one person, while a truck driver making a delivery to a distillery in the Russian border village of Tyotkino was killed, according to Russian sources. (MT/AFP, 05.19.22, MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• Prosecutors in Ukraine are seeking life in prison for the first Russian soldier to stand trial on accusations of committing a war crime in Ukraine. Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin pleaded guilty in the shooting death of a 62-year-old Ukrainian civilian in the northeastern region of Sumy. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• The U.N.’s human rights office has confirmed more than 8,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in February, but warned that the actual number was likely to be considerably higher. (FT, 05.19.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of using food as a weapon in its war against Ukraine by blocking ports used to ship grain and other commodities. An estimated 20 million tons of grain are stuck inside Ukraine.  (FT, 05.20.22, RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• Videos and eyewitness testimony provided evidence of Russian troops executing eight Ukrainian men in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, implicating them in a possible war crime.   (MT/AFP, 05.20.22)
• The International Committee of the Red Cross has begun registering hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers who left a besieged steel plant in Mariupol as prisoners of war. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said May 20 that 1,908 Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered at the Azovstal steelworks. Many of them were reportedly transferred to territory in eastern Ukraine controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists. Commander of Ukraine’s far-right Azov Regiment Denys Prokopenko left the premises of the Azov steel mill in Mariupol and surrendered to Russian forces, RBC reported May 20, citing a Russian Channel I correspondent. (RM, 05.20.22, FT, 05.20.22, MT/AFP, 05.20.22, RFE/RL, 05.20.22, RFE/RL, 05.19.22)

 

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggest that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the attempted crossing of the Donets River at Bilohorivka on May 11, placing it among the deadliest engagements of the war. (NYT, 05.15.22)  
• "The brutal invasion [by] Russia is losing momentum," NATO Deputy-Secretary General Mircea Geoana said May 15. (RFE/RL, 05.15.22)
• The head of NATO has told reporters that he believes Ukraine can defeat Russia, saying the conflict isn't going as Moscow had planned. (WSJ, 05.16.22)
• Ukraine on May 16 claimed that its troops had reached the border with Russia after weeks of a successful counterattack that pushed Russia’s invading forces back from Kharkiv. (FT, 05.16.22)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he met Blinken in Berlin on May 15 and that "more weapons and other aid is on the way to Ukraine.” At a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, Germany's Annalena Baerbock said it would provide military assistance "for as long as Ukraine needs this support for the self-defense of its country."  (RFE/RL, 05.16.22, MT/AFP, 05.16.22)
• The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces claims that up to 2,500 reservists are being trained in Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod and Rostov regions to participate in the war. (Meduza, 05.16.22) 
• As of May 16 Vazhnye Istorii has identified names of 2,373 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. Media Zone and BBC confirmed 2,622 Russian KIAs as of May 20. (RM, 05.20.22)
• “I must state that the operation to defeat the enemy’s Donetsk grouping, widely publicized in late April-early May, failed,” the Donbas rebels’ ex-defense chief Igor Strelkov-Girkin wrote in his Telegram channel. “Only tactical successes have been achieved in more than two weeks of fierce fighting,” he wrote. (Girkin’s Telegram channel, 05.16.22, RM, 05.17.22)
• This week, retired Russian colonel Mikhail Khodarenok appeared on prime-time national TV in Russia to urge viewers not to swallow “informational sedatives,” such as “claims of moral and psychological breakdown among the Ukrainian armed forces.” “The situation will frankly get worse for us,” Khodarenok warned. (RM, 05.20.22)
• The Ukrainian armed forces reportedly have received their first Mi-17 Hip helicopters as part of U.S. military and security assistance. (Defence Blog, 05.17.22)
• Putin is involved in Russia’s push to capture eastern Ukraine on a tactical level, British media reported May 16, citing unnamed western military sources. Russia spent more than $300 million per day on defense last month as its invasion of Ukraine continued to drag on, according to Finance Ministry data, more than doubling its pre-war defense spending. (MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• Missile frigate "Admiral Makarov" may become the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet after the sinking of the cruiser "Moskva." (NVO, 05.18.22)
• Ukrainian officials are growing frustrated with the Biden administration’s resistance to providing U.S.-made long-range rocket systems. (Politico, 05.18.22)
• The British Ministry of Defense said Lt. Gen. Sergei Kisel, who commanded Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army, has been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. Also Vice Adm. Igor Osipov, who commanded Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, has been dismissed following the sinking of the cruiser Moskva. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• It’s the steady flow of weapons and other assistance for Kyiv that’s had the most decisive impact in helping Ukraine repulse Russian attacks. Kremlin officials admit privately that they didn’t expect the U.S. and its allies to move so quickly to offer Ukraine such broad support. (Bloomberg, 05.19.22)
• The U.S. Senate on May 19 overwhelmingly approved a $40 billion package of military and economic aid for Ukraine, sending the legislation to Biden. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• A lack of reserve manpower is forcing Russian commanders to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups, according to the Institute for the Study of War. (NYT, 05.20.22)
• After Russia’s near-total conquest of Mariupol this week, Russian officials appeared to be laying the groundwork for annexing swaths of southeast Ukraine. They have already made changes in some areas, introducing the ruble currency, installing proxy politicians and cutting the population off from Ukrainian broadcasts. (NYT, 05.20.22)
• Shoigu said May 20 Moscow was nearing full control of Ukraine's eastern separatist region of Luhansk. (MT/AFP, 05.20.22)
• The G-7 leading economies have agreed to provide $9.5 billion in new economic aid to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.20.22) 
• Russian soldiers preparing to be sent to fight in Ukraine are required to buy personal equipment at their own expense, according to several servicemen who spoke to MT. (MT, 05.20.22) 

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia suspended its electricity supply to Finland May 14 in apparent retaliation for Helsinki’s decision to pursue NATO membership. (NYT, 05.14.22)
• Portugal has blocked the sale of a $10.4 million mansion because of a "strong conviction" it belongs to Kremlin-linked billionaire Roman Abramovich. (RFE/RL, 05.14.22)
• UniCredit and Citigroup are exploring asset swaps with Russian financial institutions as western banks exiting the country scramble to avoid hefty writedowns on their operations. (FT, 05.15.22)
• McDonald’s will sell its Russian restaurants to Siberian businessman Alexander Govor, the U.S. fast-food giant announced May 19. Govor, who co-owns oil firm NefteKhimServis, already operates 25 of the chain’s restaurants in Russia. (MT/AFP, 05.19.22)
• Renault is selling its stake in Russia’s Avtovaz for a symbolic sum. The French group’s exit involves a €2.2 billion writedown. (FT, 05.16.22)
• The Russian business of Authentic Brands Group-owned Reebook has been taken over by Turkey’s FLO retailing. The deal could be worth 1.5 billion rubles ($24.26 million). (Euronews, 05.16.22)
• The £4.25 billion takeover of Chelsea football club has hit last-minute problems after the U.K. government clashed with Abramovich over the terms. (FT, 05.17.22)
• Two special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, created by Russian businessman and investor Ivan Tavrin have continued trading normally on the Nasdaq Stock Market even as other large Russian companies and exchange-traded funds remain suspended. (WSJ, 05.17.22)
• The EU Commission said May 17 that opening accounts in rubles at a Russian bank to pay for gas would breach the bloc's sanctions against Moscow. (EUobserver, 05.17.22)
  • About half of all Gazprom’s gas buyers have opened accounts at Gazprombank, after a presidential order demanded that payments from “unfriendly countries” are made in rubles.  (FT, 05.19.22)
  • Italian energy giant ENI has begun the process of opening a ruble bank account with Gazprom Bank to facilitate its purchase of Russian gas. (FT, 05.17.22)
• Canada on May 17 introduced a bill in the Senate that will ban Putin and some 1,000 other members of his government and military from entering the country. Additionally, Canada announced May 20 a ban on trade in luxury goods with Russia, and added 14 more Russian oligarchs and other associates of Putin to its sanctions list. (AFP, 05.20.22, Reuters, 05.17.22)
• Russia has announced the expulsion of French and Italian diplomats in a "retaliatory" move. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow said May 18 that 34 employees of French "diplomatic institutions in Russia" had been declared personae non grata. The same day, the ministry said 24 Italian diplomats were also being expelled. (RFE/RL, 05.18.22)
• Russia is shutting down the Moscow offices of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation in retaliation to Ottawa banning Russia’s state-run RT networks. (MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• Google’s Russian branch has initiated a bankruptcy procedure over its inability to pay a $100-million fine for keeping up content Moscow deems illegal. (MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is stepping up talks with EU and G7 allies on a potential price cap or tariff on Russian oil. Ukraine and Canada are also among those that have supported a price cap. But many European officials are quietly voicing skepticism of the approach. German officials, for instance, have questions about the effectiveness of the price cap proposal. (FT, 05.18.22, WP, 05.19.22)
• Last week, Russia levied sanctions on gas trade with Europe, which Germany's vice chancellor and economy minister in December, Robert Habeck said would cut Russian gas deliveries to Germany by 10 million cubic meters a day, the equivalent of around 3% of Russia's annual gas exports to the country. (WSJ, 05.18.22)
• The Kremlin called a suggestion that frozen Russian foreign reserves be used to finance the rebuilding of Ukraine an act of "outright theft," after Germany's finance minister told reporters that a comparable move is being discussed among the G-7 nations and EU members. (WP, 05.18.22)
  • Scholars and lawyers are warning the decision to confiscate Russia’s frozen funds would be fraught with risk, legally questionable and could generate unintended consequences. (FT, 05.16.22)
• Western sanctions imposed on Russia that came into force on May 15 have forced Western oilfield service companies to reconsider their approach to doing business in Russia. Baker Hughes terminated all contracts, including service contracts, with sanctioned Russian entities, while Halliburton transferred its assets in Russia to a new legal entity, which it is then going to sell to local management. Schlumberger, which has the largest presence in Russia, may consider a similar exit scenario. (Kommersant, 05.18.22) 
• The United States is unlikely to extend a license that allows Russia to pay U.S. bondholders. The license is due to expire May 25. Russian finance officials said May 20 that they had pushed through around $100 million in interest payments due under some of the country's foreign-currency debts ahead of the deadline. (WSJ, 05.20.22, RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• Russia had taken steps to prepare itself for a food crisis even before Putin sent troops to Ukraine, Putin adviser Maxim Oreshkin said. (MT/AFP, 05.19.22)
• A poll released this week by Bank Otkritie found 58% of Russians said they’d noticed shortages of foods in stores since the war started, and a third said they’re stocking up. Another survey by Levada Center found 85% of those surveyed said now is a bad time for big purchases or taking out a loan, the highest level in more than a decade. (Bloomberg, 05.19.22)
• Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and the CEO of the shelved Nord Stream 2 project Matthias Warnig resigned May 20 from the board of directors of Rosneft amid pressure over the war in Ukraine. Germany’s governing parties have earlier decided to strip Schröder of his parliamentary privileges, as anger grows over his refusal to distance himself from the Kremlin. (FT, 05.18.22, MT/AFP, 05.20.22) 
• Russia will cut natural gas supplies to Finland on May 21, according to Finland’s state energy provider, the latest salvo in a growing confrontation between the two countries. (NYT, 05.20.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Negotiators for Russia and Ukraine appear farther apart than at any other point in the nearly three-month-long war. Vladimir Medinsky, the head of Putin’s delegation, has claimed that Russia has still not received a response to a draft peace agreement that it submitted to Ukraine on April 15. Rustem Umerov, a top Ukrainian negotiator, responded by saying that Russia was operating with “fakes and lies.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the talks have come to a standstill because of a “lack of willingness” on Kyiv’s part. (NYT, 05.17.22, MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• The U.N. on May 19 urged Russia and Ukraine to "build on" contacts and coordination that enabled the evacuation operations from Mariupol in order to resume stalled peace talks. (MT/AFP, 05.19.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Finland's parliament on May 17 overwhelmingly endorsed a bid to join NATO, abandoning more than seven decades of neutrality. Earlier, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde signed the official request to join NATO. Finland and Sweden then handed in their official applications for membership. (RFE/RL, 05.17.22, RFE/RL, 05.18.22)
  • Speaking alongside Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto at the White House on May 19, Biden called their countries’ applications "a watershed moment in European security." (BBC, 05.19.22)
  • Turkey blocked the start of Finland and Sweden's accession talks to NATO on May 18. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has objected to Sweden's granting of asylum to members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. A Turkish pro-government newspaper said Ankara’s  demands of the Nordic countries include a demand to limit contacts with  PKK. Bloomberg says Turkey’s wish list also includes F-35s. Turkey also wants Sweden and Finland to lift restrictions on arms sales imposed on Turkey. (FT, 05.19.22, Aviacionline, 05.19.22, WP, 05.18.22)
  • Putin said “there is no direct threat for Russia” from NATO’s expansion into Finland and Sweden. However, he warned that Moscow would respond if they deployed new military hardware there. "This is another grave mistake with far-reaching consequences," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. Shoigu says Moscow will create new military bases in its western regions and form 12 new units and divisions in response to Sweden and Finland's move to join NATO. (RFE/RL, 05.20.22, FT, 05.16.22, MT/AFP, 05.16.22)
• U.S. Gen. Mark Milley spoke by telephone with Russia's Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the Pentagon said on May 19, the first conversation between the two since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. "The military leaders discussed several security-related issues of concern and agreed to keep the lines of communication open," said a spokesman for Milley. (Reuters, 05.19.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• China appears to be increasingly embarrassed by Russia’s conduct of its war in Ukraine, Britain’s defense secretary said, underlining a growing split in the once-budding relationship between the two powers that has dissuaded Beijing from providing material support to Moscow over the course of the ongoing conflict. (FP, 05.11.22)
• In a highly unusual move, former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng spoke against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Gao, the odds are stacked so heavily against Putin that “it’s only a matter of time before Russia is fully defeated.” (The Diplomat, 05.12.22, Settimana News, 05.13.22)
• The G-7 has called on China to support Ukrainian sovereignty and not help Russia, warning that Moscow's unprovoked war against Ukraine has threatened the globe by generating a severe food and energy crisis. (RFE/RL, 05.14.22)
• Russia is approaching Chinese companies to join in its bid to revive the Soviet-era Moskvitch car, and is in talks with Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co (JAC), and another unnamed Chinese carmaker to lead production, supplying parts and designs. (MT/AFP, 05.19.22)
• "China proposes to start the BRICS expansion process," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told an online meeting of BRICS foreign ministers. Lavrov shared Russia’s assessment of the situation in Ukraine at the meeting. (TASS, 05.20.22, Reuters, 05.19.22)
• Russia positively views the role of Chinese companies in Arctic energy projects, including Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2, and would welcome Chinese businesses to other regional projects, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador at Large Nikolai Korchunov said. (Interfax, 05.20.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• A Russian hacking cartel carried out an extraordinary cyberattack against the government of Costa Rica, crippling tax collection and forcing the country to declare a state of emergency. The ransomware gang Conti, which is based in Russia, claimed credit for the attack, which began on April 12, and has threatened to leak the stolen information unless it is paid $20 million. (NYT, 05.17.22) 
• Putin on May 20 called for "technological sovereignty," saying Russia has been hit by numerous cyberattacks since Moscow sent troops to Ukraine. "The number of cyberattacks, including complex ones, has increased many times over" since then, Putin said during a meeting of Russia's Security Council. (MT/AFP, 05.20.22)
• Ransomware attacks are getting worse in the U.S. despite heightened efforts to combat them. A group of top cyber experts released a task force report one year ago laying out 48 detailed recommendations to combat the scourge of ransomware attacks. Ransomware payments by victims spiked 70% in 2021 over the previous year's levels. (WP, 05.20.22)
• The Italian authorities said on May 20 that they were investigating a claim of responsibility by pro-Russia hackers as part of a broad attack on the websites of several Italian institutions and government agencies. The foreign ministry’s website was still not working at 1 p.m. local time on May 20. (NYT, 05.20.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Germany plans to stop importing Russian oil by the end of the year even if the European Union fails to agree on an EU-wide ban in its next set of sanctions, government officials have said. (Bloomberg, 05.15.22) 
•  “The Europeans directly acknowledge that they can’t completely give up Russian energy resources,” Putin said on May 17. “It’s even more obvious that some EU states that have a particularly high level of Russian hydrocarbons in their energy mix won’t be able to give up Russian oil for a long time.” (FT, 05.17.22)
• Gorged with cash thanks to cheap supplies of Russian oil and gas, the Hungarian energy conglomerate MOL last month announced it would pay dividends of $652 million to its shareholders. (NYT, 05.19.22)
• Russia has exported about 450,000 barrels per day of crude to Italy this month, more than four times as much as in February and the most since 2013, according to Kpler, a commodity data company. As a result, Italy is set to overtake the Netherlands as the EU’s largest import hub for seaborne Russian crude. (FT, 05.20.22)
• Russia's revenues from the sale of gas to European countries in 2022 will amount to $100 billion, according to Citigroup’s forecast. (Meduza, 05.20.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• The Russian minister overseeing digital communications says the government has no plans to block YouTube despite threats to do so over parent company Alphabet Inc's failure to delete content Moscow has deemed illegal. Maksut Shadayev said "Russia must remain part of the global network," though it must "learn to filter information" in the Internet. (RFE/RL, 05.17.22)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• No significant developments.

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s current account surplus more than tripled in the first four months of the year to $95.8 billion, the central bank said, as prices surged for its oil and gas exports and imports plunged. The surplus on the current account was the highest since at least 1994. (Bloomberg, 05.16.22)
• Some 71% of Russians identify as Christian Orthodox, 5% as Muslims and about 3% as followers of other religions (primarily Catholicism, Protestantism and Buddhism). Another 15% of respondents do not identify themselves with any religion and about 4% identify themselves as atheists, according to a Levada poll conducted in April. (RM, 05.16.22) 
• Mortgage loans in Russia fell by their largest margin ever in April. Russian banks approved 37,200 mortgage loans totaling 130.5 billion rubles ($2 billion) in April 2022. That marked a 75% drop from March, when banks issued 529.3 billion rubles ($8 billion) in mortgage loans, and a 77% drop in the number of mortgage loans. (MT/AFP, 05.17.22)
• The Russian government has published a decree that allows Russian automakers to stop installing a number of systems on new cars that are not available due to sanctions imposed on Russia. In particular, the newly-made cars won’t have to have ABS and ESP systems and airbags installed. (Kommersant, 05.16.22)
• In March-April 2022, 62,341 bankruptcy cases were registered in the database of arbitration cases in Russia. That was 10,000 more than a year earlier, and almost three times more than in the same period of 2020. (Forbes.ru, 05.17.22)
• The Basmanny Court of Moscow arrested in absentia founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team Ruslan Leviev on charges of spreading "fake news" about the Russian army. (Meduza, 05.18.22)
• The Khoroshevsky District Court of Moscow arrested Andrey Panov, Aeroflot’s former deputy general director of strategy and marketing, in absentia. Panov, who left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and publicly opposed the war, is accused of fraud. (Meduza, 05.18.22)
• Yury Shevchuk, leader and frontman of DDT, one of Russia's most popular rock groups, has been charged with an administrative misdemeanor over a statement he made during a concert about Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• A new investigation has named the former director of the Bavarian State Ballet as the partner of Putin’s second-eldest daughter. Igor Zelensky is reportedly in a serious, long-term relationship with Katerina Tikhonova widely believed to be Putin’s daughter. (MT, 05.19.22)
• Russia’s Ministry of Justice declared exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and chess player Garry Kasparov "foreign agents." (Meduza, 05.20.22) 
• Member of the Komi Republic’s parliament Viktor Vorobyov was declared a "foreign agent" after he received a refund for a train ticket in London. (Meduza, 05.20.22) 

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian military satellite Kosmos-2555, which was launched on April 29 and featured the pro-war Z symbol on its launcher, burned upon descent into the atmosphere on the morning of May 18. The satellite, which may have been designed to provide imaging, did not give radio signals and could not keep its orbit upon launch. (Media Zone, 05.19.22, The Insider, 05.19.22)
• The State Duma says it will discuss a draft bill that would remove the upper age limit and allow anyone over the age of 18 to sign up for the military, a possible sign that Moscow has suffered heavy personnel losses in its war against Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.20.22)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Evgeny Prigozhin’s libel lawsuit against Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins has been thrown out of U.K. court. (FT, 05.19.22)
• Russia’s Investigative Committee is investigating alleged cryptocurrency mining on the territory of a branch of a psychiatric hospital at Moscow’s Butyrka detention facility. (Media Zone, 05.20.22) 

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Moscow is expelling two Finnish diplomats in retaliation for Helsinki's decision to expel a similar number of Russian diplomats in April. (RFE/RL, 05.17.22)
• Russia says it is quitting the Council of the Baltic Sea States, accusing the organization of becoming "an instrument of anti-Russian policy" and "increasingly bogged down in Russophobia and lies." (RFE/RL, 05.17.22)
• The Russian government is starting the process of unilaterally withdrawing from a series of international bodies, including the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organization, the Russian Duma’s Deputy Speaker Pyotr Tolstoy said. (Politico, 05.18.22)
• Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Pope Francis has spoken repeatedly about the suffering of Ukrainians. But he has conspicuously avoided condemning Putin as the aggressor. (WP, 05.20.22)

Ukraine:

• Zelensky has signed a new law banning pro-Russian political parties. (RFE/RL, 05.14.22)

• Zelensky welcomed a newly announced €9 billion EU support package to help his country. (FT, 05.18.22)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Ukraine's bid to join the EU cannot be fast-tracked despite Russia's invasion. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• On May 18, the U.S. said it was reopening its embassy in Kyiv, and the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved Biden's nominee Bridget Brink to be the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)
• Ukrainian lawmakers have outlined a resolution that would designate Putin as a war criminal over for his "aggressive" moves against the country. (RFE/RL, 05.19.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Putin met with his five CSTO allies on May 16. Only one of them, Lukashenko, spoke up to support him on Ukraine. Ukraine was not mentioned in the communique CSTO leaders signed on May 16. Notably, the communique said the CSTO is prepared for “practical interaction with NATO.” (NYT, 05.16.22, RM, 05.16.22)
• The U.N.’s Guterres has expressed concern over reports of escalating tensions and violence, including casualties, in Tajikistan's restive region of Gorno-Badakhshan. Protesters have clashed with police in recent days, with reports of as many as 21 dead, including one police officer. (RFE/RL, 05.20.22)
• The de facto leader of Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia has announced that the territory will hold a referendum on joining Russia on July 17. Holding the vote will be complicated by the fact that the South Ossetian leader, Anatoliy Bibilov, recently lost his bid for reelection. (MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• Belarus has introduced the death penalty for attempts to carry out acts of terrorism, charges that several opposition activists face in the ex-Soviet country. (MT/AFP, 05.18.22)
• Nikol Pashinyan asked the Kremlin to send CSTO troops to Armenia, following the example of Kazakhstan, Russia’s Baza news resource claimed, citing “several sources,” including a source in the Russian presidential administration. The reason behind Pashinyan’s request is the daily mass protests in Yerevan and other cities, which have, according to Baza, frightened the Armenian PM. (RM, 05.18.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “There’s the realization that India is far too big and far too important to be slotted into these convenient definitions of, ‘Either you’re with us or you’re against us’,” said Nirupama Rao, a former Indian foreign secretary. (FT, 05.15.22)
• Indian academic Pratap Bhanu Mehta observes: “It is one of the great mysteries of international politics that despite their terrible record at winning asymmetric wars, powerful countries continue to think they can win.” (FT, 05.16.22)
• Historian AJP Taylor concluded: “Though the object of being a Great Power is to be able to fight a Great War, the only way of remaining a Great Power is not to fight one.” (FT, 05.16.22)
•  “The director [of the FSB] himself cannot afford to report to management what management does not want,” an FSB official said in an interview. (Vazhnye Istorii, 05.16.22)
•  Fiona Hill said Putin has weaponized the Russian Orthodox church, a strategy she said is "pulled straight out of the pages of the 1840s and 50s" when it was used by Tsar Nicholas I to create "official nationality," shaping and defining the nation state around a triad of "the autocracy, Russian orthodoxy and the people." (Business Insider, 05.18.22)
• “Don’t trust Putin, he never keeps his word, never,” Pyotr Poroshenko said, by way of recommendations on how to deal with him, His second piece of advice: “Don’t be afraid of Putin.” (FT, 05.20.22)
•  “The economy has ceased to be a source of legitimacy for him [Putin],” said Sergei Guriev, a Paris-based Russian economist. “To force him to think about the economy, you’d have to impose an oil-and-gas embargo.” (Bloomberg, 05.19.22)