Russia in Review, March 30-April 6, 2018

This Week’s Highlights:

  • Washington hit Moscow with another round of sanctions for meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, this time sanctioning seven Russian tycoons, 12 companies and 17 senior government officials (for more more on meddling, check out our updated compilation of evidence related to interference in the 2016 presidential race).
  • Shares in some Russian companies targeted by new U.S. sanctions plummeted on April 6, but the broader market showed little reaction.
  • Kremlin has invited Kim Jong-un to visit Moscow ahead of his summit with Donald Trump. Or not.
  • While greeting the Chinese foreign minister, Putin hailed the Chinese legislature's unanimous decision to reappoint Xi Jinping as president with no term limits.
  • It now takes 250 days to get an appointment with the U.S. visa section in Moscow, compared with four in Beijing and 31 in New Delhi.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The omnibus bill signed by U.S. President Donald Trump includes $34.5 billion in funding for the Department of Energy. The legislation includes record levels of funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration: $14.7 billion. (U.S. Department of Energy, 03.28.18, DT News, 03.22.18)
  • A truck crashed into the fence of the central checkpoint in the closed city of Seversk early on March 14, 2018. The city hosts the Siberian Chemical Combine, one of the largest nuclear sites in the world, holding dozens of tons of weapons-grade nuclear materials. (Russian Nuclear Security Update/Dmitry Kovchegin Consultants, 04.05.18)
  • Over the January holiday season, “Atom-Guard” guards with Rosatom stopped thieves from stealing materials from nuclear sites. At the beginning of January, two people were found trying to take material from the protected area of Rostov NPP, while a second incident happened at the construction site of Leningrad NPP-2. Reinforcing steel rods were discovered stolen and prepared for removal from the secured perimeter. (Russian Nuclear Security Update/Dmitry Kovchegin Consultants, 04.05.18)
  • “Neutralization of the threat of nuclear terrorism requires radical revision and creation of new foundations of the international security system that would rid the world of the arms race as well as of root causes of extremism … . Otherwise, the current pace of scientific and technological progress and the growth of the potential of terrorist organizations will bring along practical use of a nuclear weapon as an instrument of terrorism in the next decade,” write Migadat Vildanov, lecturer at the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and Nikolai Bashkirov, professor at the Academy of Military Sciences. (Nezavismaya Gazeta, 04.06.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • The foreign ministers of Russia and China have jointly denounced in Moscow what they described as efforts by the United States to unilaterally change negotiated treaties ranging from the Iran nuclear deal to the global-warming pact. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out that the Iran deal took years to negotiate, and said Russia took the position that any attempt to unilaterally change the deal represents a violation of its terms as well as of a U.N. resolution carrying out the deal. Lavrov also accused the U.S. administration of also trying to unilaterally alter World Trade Organization rules as well as the 2015 Minsk agreement. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi joined in Lavrov's criticism, but focused his remarks on U.S. plans to impose new tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. (RFE/RL, 04.06.18)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to travel to the United States to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on April 27. French President Emmanuel Macron is slated to meet with Trump in Washington April 24. The meetings would come shortly before a May 12 deadline that Trump has set for adjustments to the Iran nuclear deal. (RFE/RL, 04.05.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, in his final days in office, condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin in a speech on April 3. He urged the world’s democracies and their institutions to resist the Kremlin’s "pernicious form of aggression that combines political, economic, informational and cyber assaults against sovereign nations. … We have failed to impose sufficient costs." (Bloomberg, The Washington Post, 04.04.18)
  • Russia on April 4 started a live-fire military exercise in the Baltic Sea, just outside of NATO territorial waters, in a move a top Latvian defense official called a "show of force" just a day after Baltic leaders met with U.S. President Donald Trump. (The Washington Post, 04.05.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 2 that tensions between Moscow and the West are now worse than during the Cold War. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) head Sergei Naryshkin has cited George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984” to accuse the West of “unprecedented hypocrisy” and a Cold War mentality. "It's important to stop the irresponsible game of raising stakes and to stop the use of force in relations between states, not to bring matters to a second Cuban Missile Crisis," Naryshkin said. (AFP, 04.04.18, The Moscow Times, 04.04.18)
  • Russia’s former envoy to NATO has warned that the military alliance has crossed a “red line” in efforts to bolster air defense capabilities in Eastern Europe. “NATO countries are trying to find a balance between defense and dialogue, but they have crossed a red line,” Russia’s deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko was cited as saying. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.18)
  • The planned delivery of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries to Turkey has been brought forward to July 2019 from the first quarter of 2020. (The Moscow Times, 04.04.18)
  • It’s no secret that U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems) frequently operate over the Black Sea. The first reports of the gigantic American drone’s activities near Crimea and Ukraine date back to April 2015. (Aviationist, 04.06.18)

Missile defense:

  • Sources in the U.S. intelligence community told Ankit Panda that Russia conducted a test launch of the Nudol anti-satellite system in Plesetsk, this time from a transporter erector launcher. The Nudol system, also known as PL-19, is believed to be a direct-ascent ASAT developed by the Almaz-Antey design bureau. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 04.02.18)
  • Russia has test-launched a new anti-ballistic missile at the Sary-Shagan missile testing site in Kazakhstan. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.18)

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • No significant developments.

Cyber security:

  • Messaging platform Telegram has told Russian regulators that it is technically unable to hand the encryption keys to user accounts to the country’s secret services, just weeks after the platform was ordered to do so or risk being banned in the country. Russian state regulators then moved to block the app 48 hours after it missed a deadline to provide the decryption tools. (The Moscow Times, 04.06.18, Financial Times, 04.02.18)

Elections interference:

  • The Trump administration sanctioned seven Russian tycoons, 12 companies and 17 senior government officials including key allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin under provisions of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act that Congress passed last year to retaliate against Moscow for meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. (Bloomberg, 04.06.18)
    • Among the most prominent Russian tycoons identified April 6 is Oleg Deripaska, the billionaire founder and majority shareholder of En+ Group, the largest operator of Siberian power plants with a major stake in Russia’s biggest aluminum producer, Rusal. Other tycoons sanctioned on April 6 include Suleiman Kerimov, Viktor Vekselberg, Alexey Miller and Vladimir Bogdanov. The U.S. also identified associates of Putin linked to sanctioned banks: Andrey Akimov, CEO of state-run Gazprombank, and Andrey Kostin, head of state-owned VTB Group. The list also includes Kirill Shamalov, who was briefly catapulted into the ranks of Russia’s super rich after his marriage to Putin’s daughter Katerina Tikhonova. (Bloomberg, 04.06.18)
  • The new sanctions targeted top foreign policy and security officials, including the secretary of Russia’s security council, Nikolai Patrushev, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, head of the National Guard Viktor Zolotov, head of the country’s Internet regulator Alexander Zharov, senior Russian lawmakers Konstantin Kosachev and Andrei Skoch, deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank Alexander Torshin and governor of Russia’s Tula region Alexey Dyumin. Kosachev said the new sanctions were baseless and unfriendly. (Bloomberg, 04.06.18, RFE/RL, 04.06.18, New York Times, 04.06.18, The Moscow Times, 04.06.18)
    • Among the targeted companies were United Co. Rusal PLC, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, responsible for 7% of global aluminum production. Sanctioned companies also include weapons-trading company Rosoboroneksport and a financial institution it owns, the Russian Financial Corporation Bank. (Wall Street Journal, 04.06.18, Bloomberg, 04.06.18)
    • One senior U.S. national security official said the administration is preparing a series of actions to counter Russian aggression, some of which would be publicized, while others would be covert. "There will be more to come, and we're going to continue to employ our resources to combat malicious Russian activity and respond to nefarious attacks," the official said. (Wall Street Journal, 04.06.18)
    • U.S lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle are praising the Trump administration's new Russian sanctions Friday, saying it was much needed after Russia meddled in the 2016 election, though some prominent members of Congress are calling for more to be done. (CNN, 04.06.18)
    • Moscow said on Friday it would respond firmly to new U.S. sanctions imposed against Russian businessmen, companies and government officials.Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that no pressure could make Russian change its course and that the sanctions will only unite Russian society. (Reuters, 04.06.18)
    • “Russian oligarchs and elites who profit from this corrupt system will no longer be insulated from the consequences of their government’s destabilizing activities,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement April 6. But what if Russia doesn't have oligarchs? That may seem like a radical position, but that's the apparent stance of the Russian government. “There are no oligarchs in Russia,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said April 5. The term that the Russian presidential spokesman said he would prefer was “representatives of big business.” (The Washington Post, 04.06.18)
    • Moscow said on April 6 it would respond firmly to new U.S. sanctions imposed against Russian businessmen, companies and government officials. Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that no pressure could make Russian change its course and that the sanctions will only unite Russian society. (Reuters,04.06.18)
  • U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller continues to investigate whether U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to block his probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, but he has told Trump lawyers the president is not currently a "target" of the probe, meaning he is not currently a candidate for indictment on criminal charges. But Trump remains a "subject" of Mueller's investigation into possible attempts to obstruct the investigation into Russian ties with the Trump campaign. (RFE/RL, 04.05.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators have indicated to the president's legal team that they are considering writing reports on their findings in stages—with the first report focused on the obstruction issue. Under special counsel regulations, Mueller is required to report his conclusions confidentially to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who has the authority to decide whether to release the information publicly. (The Washington Post, 04.05.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller defended the indictment of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort by releasing a secret government memorandum granting him authority to investigate crimes related to Manafort’s political consulting work for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. The memo, dated Aug. 2, 2017, and signed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, supplements a May 2017 appointment order directing Mueller to investigate possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign, as well as “any matters that arose or may arise directly” from his probe. In an April 2 filing, Mueller’s prosecutors revealed some of the reasons they initially pursued Manafort, citing business ties between Manafort and the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. They said an investigation of links between Russia and Trump’s campaign “would naturally cover ties that a former Trump campaign manager had to Russian-associated political operatives, Russian-backed politicians and Russian oligarchs.” (Bloomberg, 04.03.18, Bloomberg, 04.06.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller revealed to lawyers for former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort that they obtained a search warrant for information about five AT&T telephone numbers, suggesting the sprawling investigation may be headed in a new direction. (Bloomberg, 04.06.18)
  • A federal judge expressed deep skepticism that Paul Manafort could use a civil lawsuit to attack special counsel Robert Mueller’s authority to charge Manafort with crimes unrelated to his role as the former Trump campaign chairman. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • Dutch lawyer Alex van der Zwaan who lied about his contacts with a top Trump campaign official and an alleged Russian spy was ordered April 3 to serve 30 days in prison, becoming the first person sentenced in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Van der Zwaan admitted to misleading Mueller’s prosecutors and FBI agents about his discussions with Rick Gates, Trump’s former deputy campaign chairman. He also lied about his work with a man who prosecutors say was a Russian military intelligence officer. (Bloomberg, 04.03.18)
  • A witness who is cooperating in the special counsel investigation, George Nader, has connections to both the Persian Gulf states and Russia and may have information that links two important strands of the inquiry together. Nader used his longstanding ties to Kirill Dmitriev, the manager of a state-run Russian investment fund, to help set up a meeting in the Seychelles between Dmitriev and a Trump adviser days before Trump took office. Mr. Mueller’s investigators have also questioned Joel Zamel, an Australian entrepreneur who has an office in Tel Aviv and knows Mr. Nader, according to people briefed on the matter. Zamel hasappeared before a grand jury and was questioned about Mr. Nader, though it was unclear whether Mr. Zamel had any information about Mr. Nader’s ties to Russia. Special counsel Robert Mueller has asked questions about the work of Zamel’s  Wikistrat private consulting firm that has undertaken projects for the United Arab Emirates, suggesting his probe is looking more deeply at foreign influence in Washington.  (New York Times, 04.04.18, Wall Street Journal, 04.02.18)
  • George Papadopoulos now tweets smiling beach selfies with a Mykonos hashtag. Rick Gates gets rapid approval for a family vacation and shaves down his potential prison time. Michael Flynn flies cross-country to stump for a California congressional candidate and books a speaking event in New York. The message is unmistakable: It pays to cooperate with the government. (AP, 04.05.18)
  • Facebook is expanding its response to people using the platform improperly and on April 3 said it had deleted hundreds of Russian accounts and pages associated with a "troll factory" indicted by U.S. prosecutors. Facebook said many of the deleted articles and pages came from Russia-based Federal News Agency. Russia wants Washington to provide an official explanation for Facebook’s actions, which it has called censorship of Russian mass media. (The Moscow Times, 04.04.18, The Moscow Times, 04.05.18, NPR, 04.05.18)
  • The trials of EUvsDisinfo.eu have laid bare the pitfalls for official campaigns tackling false news. The website was forced in February to retract three accusations of disinformation against Dutch news media, in a case that spawned outrage in the Netherlands. The battle has emboldened critics who argue Brussels’ tactic is fundamentally wrong. (Financial Times, 04.02.18)

Conflict in Syria:

  • In a statement issued at the conclusion of a summit in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani declared there was no military solution to the seven-year Syrian conflict and "reiterated the necessity to assist the Syrians in restoring the unity of their country and in achieving a political solution of the ongoing conflict through an inclusive, free, fair and transparent Syrian-led and Syrian-owned process." (Al Monitor, 04.04.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants to decide "very quickly" whether to withdraw American troops from Syria now that they have nearly completed their primary mission of defeating Islamic State. (RFE/RL, 04.04.18)
    • The White House signaled the U.S. is committed to keeping troops in Syria to fight Islamic State, a day after President Donald Trump said he wants to get out of the seven-year civil war soon. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
    • “It’d be the single worst decision the president could make," U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said. (Reuters, 04.01.18)
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he welcomes U.S. President Donald Trump's recent pledge to pull U.S. troops out of Syria now that Islamic State has been largely defeated there. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • Syrian Republican Guard forces pushed into the rebel-held area of Douma in eastern Ghouta near Damascus on April 6. Russian Maj. Gen. Yuri Yevtushenko, of the Russian military’s Reconciliation Center in Syria, said on April 2 that 1,146 rebels and their relatives have left Douma for the northern province of Idlib over the past 24 hours. The rebels were headed to Jarablus, where control of the territory is shared between Syrian rebels and Turkish forces. (AP, 04.02.18, Reuters, 04.06.18)

Energy exports:

  • Germany’s governing coalition pushed back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia, widening trans-Atlantic tension beyond conflicts over trade and security. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump declared "nobody has been tougher on Russia" during a meeting with the heads of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to the White House on April 3. "Getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing," Trump said. "Now maybe we will and maybe we won't. Probably nobody's been tougher on Russia than Donald Trump. If you take a look at our military strength now, which probably wouldn't have happened if the opponent had won ... We're now exporting oil and gas. This is not something that Russia wanted." Trump added that "just about everyone agrees" getting along with Russia is a good thing "except very stupid people." (CNN, 04.03.18)
  • Russia sought to move beyond last week's diplomatic confrontation with the West on April 2. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said that Trump, in a March 20 telephone call with Putin, proposed that the two leaders meet at the White House in the near future. Ushakov made clear that Putin would like to take Trump up on the suggestion. Russian officials said they were now worried those plans might be derailed by the latest spiral of tit-for-tat sanctions since then over the nerve agent attack on former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia. (New York Times, 04.03.18, Financial Times, 04.02.18)
  • Some senior Trump administration officials are pressing for more aggressive action toward Russia, hoping to persuade a reluctant U.S. President Donald Trump to change his approach. While aides say the president has become increasingly convinced that Russia is dangerous, he has still refused to embrace a tougher public posture himself and remains uncertain how far to authorize his administration to go.  (New York Times, 03.31.18)
  • The United States has reportedly drastically reduced visa services in Russia after its consulate in St. Petersburg was ordered to close after a deterioration in bilateral relations following the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain. It now takes 250 days just to get an appointment with the U.S. visa section in Moscow, compared with four in Beijing and 31 in New Delhi. The entire political section of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow has been asked to leave along with the embassy’s press secretary and the ambassador’s interpreter. The U.S. State Department confirmed the United States and Russia can replace diplomats in each other's countries who were expelled last week.  (New York Times, 03.31.18, The Moscow Times, 04.02.18, CNN, 04.03.18, Kommersant, 04.06.18)
  • Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater private security group and a close campaign adviser to Donald Trump, met a Russian financier with direct ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin's family in the weeks leading up to Donald Trump's inauguration. His wife is reportedly close friends with Putin’s younger daughter. (Financial Times, 04.01.18)
  • Embattled Fox News host Laura Ingraham has found some unlikely allies: Russian bots. Russian-linked Twitter accounts have rallied around the conservative talk-show host, who has come under fire for attacking the young survivors of the Parkland, Fla., school shooting. (The Washington Post, 04.03.18)
  • U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has said for the second time this year that the United States will never be friends with Russia. (The Moscow Times, 04.06.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Shares in some Russian companies targeted by new U.S. sanctions plummeted on April 6, but the broader market showed little reaction. Shares in EN+ Group, which is on the sanctions list and manages tycoon Oleg Deripaska’s aluminum and hydropower assets, were down 20.9 percent on the London stock exchange, while shares in aluminum giant Rusal, also on the list, fell 16 percent on the Moscow Exchange. (Reuters, 04.06.18)
  • Russia’s pullback on military spending is becoming a drag on the economy after its record arms buildup helped the country through the worst of a recession three years ago. While Russia’s military statistics are classified, the economy ministry has partly blamed a decrease in arms spending for swinging industrial output into a surprise contraction during the final two months of 2017. (Bloomberg, 04.03.18)
  • All but 4 percent of state contracts in Russia were carried out through uncompetitive tenders last year. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.18)
  • Russia’s central bank is to create a “bad bank” to ringfence 1.1 trillion rubles ($19 billion) in toxic assets from three nationalized top-10 lenders, vastly increasing the total bill for bailing them out. The central bank would transfer assets from three collapsed banks into Trust, another failed lender. (Financial Times, 04.03.18)
  • The arrest of a Russian oligarch on charges of embezzlement is part of a “tough” crackdown on the misuse of state funds, the Kremlin said. Ziyavudin Magomedov, the 63rd richest person in Russia with an estimated $1.4 billion, was arrested March 31 on suspicion of embezzling more than $35 million in state funds. His brother Magomed was also arrested. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed as “political gossip” allegations that the arrests were part of a pre-cabinet reshuffle directed at weakening figures close to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.18)
  • Even the recent addition of 2.3 million Crimeans won’t be enough to offset an expected 28 percent plunge in the number of women of prime childbearing age by 2032. Without a surprise surge in births or a larger influx of immigrants from predominantly Muslim Central Asia, the U.N. forecasts Russia’s population tumbling to as low as 119 million by 2050. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • Months after finding that a growing number of educated Russians were leaving the country for economic and political reasons, the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration found that exactly half of postgraduate students were ready to relocate to get a “good job.” (The Moscow Times, 04.04.18)
  • Authorities in the city of Volokolamsk began giving residents gas masks after demonstrators bombarded the regional governor with snowballs and demanded a state of emergency be declared. About 6,000 people demonstrated in the city on April 1. Residents of Kolomna, south of Moscow, defied riot police last week to block trucks carrying trash from the capital. (Bloomberg, 04.01.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that last month’s presidential election was "probably the most transparent and cleanest" in Russian history, accepting a certificate identifying him as the president-elect after a vote that opponents said was marred by fraud and international observers said gave voters no real choice. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • Lawmakers in Russia's Sverdlovsk region have abolished the direct election of the mayor in the regional capital, Yekaterinburg, a move that has met resistance from the current mayor and protests by residents of Russia's fourth-largest city. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • Just two days after he resigned as Kemerovo governor, citing an unbearable "moral" burden following a shopping-mall fire that killed 64 people, veteran politician Aman Tuleyev has been handed a seat in the region's legislature. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)      
  • Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny plans to establish a new political party. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • More than 100 gay and bisexual Chechen men and women have fled the country to escape persecution based on their sexual orientation in the past year. (The Moscow Times, 04.04.18)
  • A court has cleared Yury Dmitriev, a prominent Russian historian and rights activist, of child pornography charges that could have landed him in jail for 15 years. (The Moscow Times, 04.05.18)
  • Human Rights Watch has called on Russia to release Danish national Dennis Christensen on the eve of an extremism trial that could see him serve 10 years in prison for attending a meeting of the Jehovah’s Witnesses. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.18)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia plans to completely overhaul its Tupolev Tu-160 bomber fleet by 2030. (The National Interest, 03.30.18)
  • The RS-26 ICBM program did not make it to the 2018-2027 State Armament Program as the priority was given to the Avangard project (which is known here as Project 4202). Being a "short" RS-24 Yars, RS-26 was by all indications an intermediate-range missile, which generated some controversy. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, 04.02.18)
  • Russian lawmakers have given preliminary approval to a bill that would oblige draft-age men to report for military service even if they have not received a conscription notice. (RFE/RL, 04.04.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 6 fired 11 top officers in two of Russia's main law enforcement agencies and other ministries, in the latest shuffle of the agencies. (RFE/RL, 04.06.18)
  • An Israeli citizen has reportedly been beaten to death in St. Petersburg in unclear circumstances. (The Moscow Times, 04.05.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Former Russian spy Sergei Skripal is no longer in critical condition and his health is improving rapidly more than a month since he was poisoned with a nerve agent. Yulia Skripal, who was poisoned along with her father, has earlier phoned her cousin in Russia and said they are both recovering and that she expects to leave the hospital soon. Yulia Skripal knows that Russian officials have offered to help her, but she has not yet accepted their assistance. London's Metropolitan Police Service has earlier issued a statement on behalf of Yulia Skripal, quoting her as saying her strength "is growing daily" and that the entire incident has been "somewhat disorientating." (The Moscow Times, 04.06.18, New York Times, 04.06.18, The Moscow Times, 04.05.18, RFE/RL, 04.05.18)
  • Gary Aitkenhead, head of the Defense Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down, England, said that it hasn’t established the poison was made in Russia, and that it wasn’t the scientists’ job to do so. These comments appear to contradict remarks British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made in an interview with Deutsche Welle on March 20. Asked how the British government could be so sure Russia was behind the attack, Johnson deferred to “the people from Porton Down,” who he said were “absolutely categorical.” (Bloomberg, 04.04.18, The Washington Post, 04.04.18)
    • U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson “has some very serious questions to answer,” U.K. opposition Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
    • The Russian embassy in the U.K. on April 4 highlighted a Foreign Office tweet from March 22, which stated that Porton Down’s analysis “made clear that this was a military-grade Novichok nerve agent produced in Russia.” Deletion of that tweet drawing a direct link between the findings of scientists at Britain’s Porton Down laboratory and Russian culpability for the nerve agent attack allowed Russia to revel in London’s apparent inconsistency. British journalists also noticed that the Foreign Office had deleted the March 22 tweet. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18, Bloomberg, 04.04.18, The Washington Post, 04.04.18)
    • The U.K. must “apologize to the Russian side,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said regarding the head of the Porton Down laboratory’s remarks. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
    • Germany, which expelled four Kremlin diplomats, stands by the U.K.’s “very plausible” evidence that Russia was responsible for the poisoning. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • “There is no doubt that we have found nerve agent, that nerve agent has been identified to have been manufactured, we believe in Russia, and we believe that the nerve agent, the Novichok type of nerve agent is only capable of being produced by a nation state,” British Security Minister Ben Wallace said on April 5. “We can say that all roads lead to Russia, that we are beyond reasonable doubt that the Russian state is behind this.” (Bloomberg, 04.05.18)
  • Russia's call for a joint inquiry to be held into the poisoning of Sergei Skripal failed on April 4 when it was outvoted 15-6 at a meeting of the global chemical weapons watchdog. Of the 38 members present for the vote, 17 abstained. Russia was joined by China, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Algeria and Iran in voting for its proposal. (The Moscow Times, 04.05.18, RFE/RL, 04.05.18)
    • Prior to the vote, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he hoped the meeting of the global chemical weapons watchdog would help to defuse the major diplomatic row that arose over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal. (RFE/RL, 04.04.18)
    • Results of the OPCW’s technical evaluation of the incident, which was requested by the U.K., are expected to be ready next week. The details will be sent to the U.K., which has said it wants the report shared with other states. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
    • The EU has “full confidence in the U.K. investigation” into the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter, according to a statement presented at a meeting on the case of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague. It’s “imperative” that Russia responds to the U.K.’s “legitimate questions” and starts to cooperate with the OPCW, the EU said. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
    • Russia’s demand for a joint inquiry into the Salisbury attack is “perverse,” John Foggo, the U.K.’s acting representative at the OPCW, told the hearing in a statement. There’s no requirement under the Chemical Weapons Convention “for a victim to engage the likely perpetrator in a joint investigation,” he said. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said April 5 the poisoning was “staged” to justify the expulsions from many countries “whose arms were twisted.” “Instead of presenting concrete facts, instead of an honest investigation, unsubstantiated allegations are made,” he said. “Self-respecting adults don’t believe in fairy tales.” (Bloomberg, 04.05.18)
  • Russia’s spy chief accused the U.K. and the U.S. of poisoning a former double agent to maintain Western unity against Moscow, as the European Union cleaved hard to its support for the British government’s line of blaming the Kremlin for the attack. The nerve-agent attack was a “grotesque provocation” carried out by U.S. and British secret services, as part of the West’s fight against the “so-called Russian threat,” Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said. (Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • Russia told Britain at the U.N. Security Council on April 5 that "you're playing with fire and you'll be sorry" over its accusations that Moscow was to blame for poisoning the Skripals. Russia requested April 5's council meeting to discuss the U.K.’s allegations. (The Moscow Times, 04.06.18, Bloomberg, 04.04.18)
  • Russia says Britain must trim its diplomatic personnel in Russia by more than 50 people amid a diplomatic tit-for-tat ignited by the poisoning of the Skripals. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told news agencies of the demand on March 31, a day after Russia served expulsion notices to a slew of staff in Western embassies in the escalating standoff. (RFE/RL, 03.31.18)
  • Russia has demanded an explanation from British authorities over their search of an Aeroflot plane at London's Heathrow Airport, saying British airlines could face similar actions if London does not clarify what happened. (RFE/RL, 03.31.18)
  • The cousin of poisoned Yulia Skipral has been denied a UK visa to visit her relatives in hospital, the Home Office has confirmed. Viktoria Skripal had hoped to visit former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury, where the pair have been fighting for their lives after being poisoned by a deadly nerve agent last month. (Independent ,04.06.18)
  • Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired lieutenant general, was quoted in British newspapers on April 3 as saying the fallout of the poisoning attack could trigger "the last war in the history of mankind." (The Moscow Times, 04.03.18)
  • The leaders of Turkey and Russia marked the official start of work on building Turkey's first nuclear power plant on April 3, launching construction of the $20 billion Akkuyu power station in the southern province of Mersin. (The Moscow Times, 04.03.18)
  • Turkey has ordered the arrest of Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen and seven others over the 2016 assassination of the Russian envoy to Turkey. The order came a day before Russian President Vladimir Putin was set to visit the country. (The Moscow Times, 04.02.18)
  • German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas says that despite the loss of trust with Russia, his country is willing to continue dialogue with Moscow in efforts to settle regional conflicts. (RFE/RL, 04.01.18)

China:

  • While greeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on April 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the Chinese legislature's unanimous decision to reappoint Xi Jinping as president with no term limits. Wang in turn conveyed Xi's congratulations on Putin's reelection. (RFE/RL, 04.06.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China is expected to give impetus to the further development of close relations. Putin plans to pay a state visit to China in conjunction with the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Heads of State Council in Qingdao on June 9-10. (TASS, 04.05.18)
  • China's defense minister met his Russian counterpart in Moscow on April 3 to "let the Americans know about the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia.” "I am visiting Russia as a new defense minister of China to show the world a high level of development of our bilateral relations and firm determination of our armed forces to strengthen strategic cooperation," China's new defense minister, Gen. Wei Fenghe, said. (AP, 04.03.18, Business Insider, 04.05.18)

Ukraine:

  • A summit of leaders from Germany, France and Ukraine may be held in the German city of Aachen in May 2018. The leaders will discuss deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping mission in Donbas, Kommersant reported. This will be a meeting in the Normandy format with the exception of Russia. (UNIAN, 04.03.18)
  • The U.S. State Department is calling on Ukraine to repeal a law that it says has put undue burdens on civil society organizations and is for that reason discouraging their work. The law requires civil-society groups and international members of the supervisory boards of state-owned enterprises to declare their assets—a requirement that the department said was excessive. (RFE/RL, 03.31.18)
  • U.S. Sen. Rob Portman says advanced U.S. antitank weapons will allow Ukraine to better defend itself against Russian aggression as the conflict there enters its fifth year. (RFE/RL, 04.02.18)
  • Ukraine’s border patrol service has threatened to detain all ships sailing in and out of Crimea, a week after detaining a Russian-flagged vessel and taking its captain into custody. (The Moscow Times, 04.04.18)
  • Conversations in the offices of Ukraine’s top leaders often turn to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s late-night phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin. These are said to be quite frequent and quite relaxed for two presidents who have been unofficially at war in eastern Ukraine for the past four years. (New York Review of Books, 03.21.18)
  • Even officials only a step or two down from Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko often seem loath to explain or justify his more controversial behavior, such as his unwillingness to replace corrupt military officers or ministers. Among Ukrainians, this translates into a deep malaise. Many Ukrainians are disillusioned with their leaders and the political class in general, demoralized by the weak economy, worried about the frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine and frustrated by the president’s failure to address the systemic corruption that permeates all aspects of life. (New York Review of Books, 03.21.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • The United States says it welcomes a package of proposals put forward this week by Georgia's government aimed at improving the lives of people living in the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (RFE/RL, 04.06.18)
  • Uzbek police have detained Hayot Sharifkhojaev, former deputy head of the country’s National Security Service, the latest in a series of high-profile arrests of senior law enforcement officials. (RFE/RL, 04.03.18)
  • Turkmenistan's authoritarian president has appointed his son to a senior post in the foreign ministry, a move that comes amid what political analysts say are signs he is being groomed as a presidential successor. (RFE/RL, 03.31.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • No significant developments.