6 Things to Know

1. In his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, U.S. President Donald Trump failed to secure the Russian leader’s consent for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, with Putin agreeing instead to suspend attacks on energy infrastructure. The U.S. and Russian readouts of the call also revealed substantive differences between the two sides’ interpretations of the content and outcomes of the March 18 conversation, which lasted two-and-a-half hours. While the White House version claims that the leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with a 30-day energy and infrastructure ceasefire, the Kremlin version refers to an energy infrastructure ceasefire only. Likewise, the Kremlin readout includes items not mentioned in the White House readout, including a claim that the two leaders discussed “a complete cessation of providing Kyiv with foreign military aid.” In addition, the White House readout doesn’t acknowledge Putin’s list of root causes of the conflict or his conditions for a ceasefire, which can both be found in the Kremlin’s readout. The Kremlin's version, more than double the length of the White House readout, provides considerably more detail about the topics discussed, signaling Putin's greater interest in unfreezing the bilateral relationship now that the U.S. no longer treats him as a pariah, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict notwithstanding. In a clear effort to encourage Trump to move with Putin toward further normalizing the U.S.-Russian relationship, the Kremlin's readout says the Russian leader praised his U.S. counterpart during the call for “striving to achieve the noble goal of ending the hostilities.” In spite of the panegyric, however, the divergence of the Kremlin and White House readouts of the March 18 Trump-Putin call reaffirms the existing significant, but not necessarily irreconcilable, differences in each sides’ visions of potential pathways to stopping the war. These differences, perhaps, explain why before his call with Trump, Putin reportedly “made it clear” to Russian business leaders that they should not expect a swift peace agreement in the war with Ukraine. In contrast to Putin, Trump said after the call that he expects a full ceasefire in the war “pretty soon.”*
2. Although Russian gains again slowed—to 92 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Martha’s Vineyard island)—in the past month, in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 48 square miles in the past week; it’s down to controlling just 31 square miles, or 4%, of the 470 square miles it controlled in early autumn 2024, according to the latest issue of RM’s Russia Ukraine War Report Card. Ukraine’s forces appear to be no longer contesting the Kursk region, but are instead focused on an orderly withdrawal from this western Russian province.
3. Trump proposed that the U.S. acquire control of Ukraine’s power plants, including nuclear facilities, during a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling it the "best protection" for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, according to WSJ. However, Zelenskyy ruled out ceding control of Ukraine’s nuclear plants, Bloomberg reports, but expressed openness to U.S. investment into these NPPs, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia plant, emphasizing that Ukrainian control is essential for its operation.  
4. Russia and Ukraine will hold separate talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia next week. U.S. and Russian delegations will meet in Jeddah with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz leading the U.S. team, according to Meduza. Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy aide to Putin, said the talks between Russian and U.S. officials would be taking place on March 24 in Riyadh, adding they would focus on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea. Also, on March 24, U.S.-Ukrainian talks will be held in Saudi Arabia, according to Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, European leaders will convene in Paris next week to coordinate their stance on Ukraine and the peace process, involving EU and non-EU nations like the U.K. and Canada, Bloomberg reports.
5. Trump expressed caution over closer ties between China and Russia, outlining plans to improve relations with two countries that have united in opposing the U.S. on the world stage. "I don't want Russia and China to get together," the U.S. leader said. “As a student of history, which I am—and I’ve watched it all—the first thing you learn is you don’t want Russia and China to get together,” the U.S. leader told Fox News. The Republican leader cast doubt over the foundation of Moscow and Beijing’s bilateral relationship, saying it wasn’t “natural.” “They’re probably friendly now, but we’re going to be friendly with both,” he added, according to Bloomberg.
6. The ruble has surged almost a third against the dollar this year on hopes of an end to the three-year conflict, FT reports. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• In the past six weeks, the NNSA has lost a huge cadre of scientists, engineers, safety experts, project officers, accountants and lawyers. More than 130 employees took the government's offer of a payout to resign, according to internal agency documents obtained by NYT that have not previously been reported. Those departures, together with those of about 27 workers who were caught up in a mass firing and not rehired, wiped out most of the recent staffing gains. (NYT, 03.18.25)

• Russia and Tajikistan have signed an agreement to cooperate on rehabilitating territories affected by uranium mining and ore processing activities. The deal aims to address environmental damage and improve the ecological conditions in impacted areas. This partnership underscores ongoing efforts to mitigate the long-term effects of industrial activities in the region. (Rosatom, 03.18.25) 

• See “Ukraine” section.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Early last month, the North Korean units returned to the Kursk region. While they'd initially operated as simple rifle units, these new brigades included the 91st and 92nd Special Forces and now had their own command structures and attack plans sharpened by previous missions. Operating in small groups on either flank, they joined elite Russian forces and outnumbered the Ukrainians by a ratio of about 2 to 1—helping seize the key stronghold of Sverdlikovo near Ukraine's main logistics routes. (WP, 03.18.25)
• A top security aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un amid talk of a potential summit between the two leaders. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu discussed the renewed contacts between Moscow and Washington, as well as the situation in Ukraine, with Kim, according to comments he made broadcast by Russian state television. The two spoke for more than two hours and Shoigu passed a message to the North Korean leader from Putin, state television reported. During talks they also discussed “many other issues” related to security on the Korean peninsula and in other regions, he said. (Bloomberg, 03.21.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• In its statement on the March 18 Trump-Putin call, the White House focused on issues beyond Ukraine, saying that Trump and Putin “shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.” No such language appeared in the Kremlin’s read out. (RM, 03.18.25) For a detailed analysis of the WH’s and Kremlin’s readouts of the March 18 call, see this RM blog post.
• Trump told Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a recently delivered letter that his nation has a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear accord. It is unclear how the U.S. would react if a deal isn’t reached, but U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly suggested he could “go in militarily” if necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)
  • The Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved diplomatically, and there is no reason why this can’t be done, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (TASS, 03.21.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• During a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on March 19, Trump and Zelenskyy discussed the situation in Russia’s Kursk region, the return of deported Ukrainian children and a potential partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes. Zelenskyy described the call as “positive” and confirmed support for a mutual ceasefire. (Meduza, 03.19.25)
• Widespread video evidence suggests some Russian units in Kursk have a policy of executing prisoners. Ukrainian military sources say the Russians began to take more prisoners as time went on, but they fear this may be preparation for a future show trial. (The Economist, 03.17.25)

• Ukrainian officials say 16,000 civilians are in Russian captivity. Humanitarian groups estimate the number could be several times higher. Around 170 have been released as part of prisoner exchanges, according to Ukrainian officials, but no clear legal process exists to free them. (WSJ, 03.20.25)

• Investigative journalists at 7x7 have identified at least 30 civilians killed during Ukraine’s occupation of Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine’s offensive displaced over 112,000 civilians, with many others trapped in the war zone facing shelling, lack of medical care and essential aid shortages. Russia’s Defense Ministry recently announced the recapture of most towns in the region, including Sudzha. (Meduza, 03.18.25)

  • Russia on March 16 said it has moved 371 of its civilians to safety from areas it retook from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 03.16.25)
• The Kremlin's official readout of the Trump-Putin call stated that Putin "informed" Trump that Russia and Ukraine will each exchange 175 prisoners of war (POWs) on March 19 and that Russia will also transfer 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers, whom Putin claimed are currently undergoing medical treatment in Russian hospitals, as a "gesture of goodwill." (ISW, 03.18.25) 
  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged 372 prisoners of war, including nearly two dozen severely wounded Ukrainian soldiers, authorities in Moscow and Kyiv said March 19. (MT/AFP, 03.19.25)
• A memorial service was held on March 14 on Kyiv's Independence Square for six Americans killed fighting against Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.15.25)
• The Trump administration has terminated a U.S.-funded initiative that documents alleged Russian war crimes, including a sensitive database detailing the mass deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. (WP, 03.18.25)
• A Yale University unit that has played a key role in gathering evidence on Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine will close down on March 28 after the U.S. State Department cut funding. In an exclusive interview, the executive director of Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab, Nathaniel Raymond, said the move was "a catastrophic blow" to efforts to document war crimes and bring people to justice. (RFE/RL, 03.19.25)
• Putin ordered Ukrainian citizens in Russia to either “legalize” their immigration status or leave the country by Sept. 10, according to a presidential decree published March 20. (MT/AFP, 03.20.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

Friday, March 14, 2025

• On March 14, Trump claimed that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) had encircled thousands of AFU soldiers in the Kursk region and asked Putin to spare them. Responding to Trump’s plea, Putin urged the AFU personnel in the Kursk region to surrender. However, Zelenskyy and his top aides denied that AFU forces were surrounded, and RM could not find any plausible evidence in open sources to support Trump’s claim. Moreover, Russian pro-war Telegram channels, such as RF MoD-associated Rybar, made no references to any major encirclement in their latest reporting on the combat in the region. Another pro-war Russian Telegram channel, Dva Mayora, acknowledged that AFU had withdrawn its experienced units from the Kursk salient, sending some novices instead. (RM, 03.17.25)
  • While some AFU servicemen acknowledged in interviews with NYT that the Russians managed to cause a “little panic” by sneaking up on the Ukrainian forces through a gas pipe, and that the Ukrainian forces’ retreat was “a mix of organized and chaotic,” we, nevertheless, we believe the AFU retreat will be more or less completed this week. (RM, 03.17.25)
  • The Ukrainians retreated relatively intact from the Kursk region, and a sizeable force still remains up to 10 kilometers inside Russia, having taken up more defensible positions on high ground. (Economist, 03.18.25)

Saturday, March 15, 2025

• On March 15, the Russian forces captured occupied Sudzha, Rubanshchyna and Novolyubivka, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map. (RM, 03.21.25)
• Russia said it had retaken two more villages from Ukrainian forces in its Kursk border region, where it has launched an offensive to wrest back seized territory. Moscow has pushed this week to retake a large part of the land that Ukraine originally captured in its western Kursk region. The Russian Defense Ministry said troops took control over the villages of Zaoleshenka and Rubanshchina — north and west of the town of Sudzha, the main town that Moscow reclaimed this week. (MT/AFP, 03.15.25)
• As of March 15, Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from all but a sliver of land in Russia’s Kursk region, according to military analysts and soldiers, as their monthslong campaign to seize and occupy Russian territory appears to be nearing an end in the face of Moscow’s counterattacks. At the height of the offensive, Ukrainian forces controlled some 500 square miles of Russian territory. By March 16, they were clinging to a narrow strip of land along the Russian-Ukrainian border, covering barely 30 square miles. (NYT, 03.16.25)
  • AFU’s setback in the Kursk region, which dashed Kyiv’s hopes to use the salient as leverage in negotiations, resulted from multiple factors. For one, Russian forces disrupted supply lines and cut off escape routes. In addition, the recent suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing weakened Ukraine’s precision targeting. Also, Russian troops staged a surprise attack through an abandoned pipeline, causing confusion, while North Korean forces, which had improved their combat capabilities, broke Ukrainian lines near a key settlement. (NYT, 03.16.25)
  • Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk continues to divide opinion. Some top officers opposed it from the start; the commander of one of the four elite units spearheading the August 2024 offensive resigned before it started. Others who had been excluded from armed forces commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi’s decisionmaking thought it a mistake. (Economist, 03.18.25)
• Ukraine said March 15 it had downed 130 Russian-launched drones across the country at night, as international efforts to end the three-year war intensify. Also, Russia says it downed 126 Ukrainian drones overnight, mostly over its southern Volgograd and Voronezh regions. Kyiv's air force said the Iranian-made Shahed drones were downed over 14 regions, and that Moscow had also attacked with two ballistic missiles. Kyiv also said that the number of wounded in a Russian strike a day earlier on Zelenskyy's hometown Kryvy Rig rose to 14. (MT/AFP, 03.15.25)

Sunday, March 16, 2025

• The current frontlines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression. Russian forces are just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, roughly 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhia City and 30 kilometers from Kharkiv City. Russian troops on the Dnipro River could use a ceasefire to prepare for the extremely difficult task of conducting an opposed river crossing undisturbed, significantly increasing the likelihood of success in such an endeavor. (ISW, 03.16.25)

Monday, March 17, 2025

• On March 17, the Russian forces advanced in Pyatykhatky and near Mali Shcherbaky, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map. (RM, 03.21.25)
• As of March 17, Russian opposition OSINT group “Conflict Intelligence Team” estimated that AFU was still in control of 4–5 settlements in the Kursk region. (RM, 03.18.25)
• Authorities in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region said March 17 that a large fire at the Tuapse oil refinery was extinguished three days after a Ukrainian drone attacked the facility. (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• Zelenskyy has appointed Andriy Hnatov to be the new chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to the General Staff’s Telegram channel. (Axios, 03.17.25)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

• Although Russian gains again slowed—to 92 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 1 Martha’s Vineyard island)—in the past month, in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine lost 48 square miles in the past week; it’s down to controlling just 31 square miles, or 4%, of the 470 square miles it controlled in early autumn 2024. We assess that Ukraine’s forces are no longer contesting the Kursk region, but are instead focused on withdrawing from this western Russian province in good order. (RM’s Russia Ukraine War Report Card, 03.19.25)
• On March 18, the Russian forces advanced near Nevske and Pryvilne, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map. (RM, 03.21.25)
• On March 18, Russian forces were reported to have recently advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid intensified Russian offensive operations in the area, likely as part of efforts to leverage Russia's deliberate stalling of the temporary ceasefire proposal to make battlefield gains. (ISW, 03.18.25)
• Even as they were being pushed out of a pocket of Russian territory in Kursk province, Ukrainian forces staged a surprise raid several kilometers into Russia’s Belgorod province. They may be seeking to create a buffer zone and improve their negotiating position. (The Economist, 03.19.25)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry claims that Ukrainian forces tried but failed to break through toward the towns of Demidovka and Prilesye, supposedly launching five attacks throughout the day. Russian military officials estimate that roughly 200 Ukrainian troops participated in the operation. (Meduza, 03.18.25)
  • “Let me reiterate: under Russian law, all Ukrainian military personnel, especially foreign mercenaries who entered our territory and committed crimes against civilians, shall be, and are, legally classified as terrorists,” Putin claimed at the expanded meeting of the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office Board on March 19. (Kremlin.ru, 03.19.25)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

• Russia's Defense Ministry said March 18 that it destroyed 46 Ukrainian drones in overnight attacks, with regional authorities saying six people were injured. The drones were "destroyed or intercepted" over the regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk near the Ukrainian border, as well as Orlov, the military said. In the city of Belgorod, a man was seriously wounded by falling drone debris, Belgorod region Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

• On March 19, the Russian forces advanced near Krasne Pershne, Skudne and Novosilka, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map. (RM, 03.21.25)
• Speaking March 19 morning, Zelenskyy said Moscow had launched 145 drones, four cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles into Ukraine overnight, "targeting energy infrastructure among other things," including two hospitals. (WSJ, 03.19.25, Meduza, 03.19.25)
• A Ukrainian drone strike started a fire at a Russian oil depot connected to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pumping station damaged in an attack last month in southern Russia. The depot, located in the village of Kavkazskaya, halted all operations early March 19, according to a statement from the regional emergency service. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25, Bloomberg, 03.19.25)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

• On March 20, the Russian forces advanced near Zaporizhzhia and in the Kursk region, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map. (RM, 03.21.25)
• Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk have lost ground in recent days but are not encircled by Russian forces, contrary to recent comments by Trump and Putin, according to three U.S. and European officials familiar with their governments' intelligence assessments. U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, have shared that assessment with the White House over the past week, a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter said. However, Trump has continued to claim that Ukrainian troops are surrounded in western Russia's Kursk region. (Reuters, 03.20.25)
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged mass drone attacks overnight, even as the two countries declared they’re ready to observe a moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure sought by Trump. Russia sent 171 explosive-laden Shahed drones toward Ukraine, up from 145 and 137 in the previous two days, the Ukrainian Air Force command reported March 20. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25, Meduza, 03.20.25.
  • Ukraine reportedly launched its "most massive" drone attack to date on Russia’s Saratov region, targeting the Engels-2 military airbase and other infrastructure. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down 132 Ukrainian drones, including 54 over Saratov. Engels is a key base for Russian strategic aviation, housing Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 strategic bombers as well as FAB and KAB glide bombs and cruise missiles storage facilities. (Meduza, 03.20.25, ISW, 03.20.25)
  • Confirmation that Ukrainian strikes on the Engels-2 Air Base of Russian Long-Range Aviation in Saratov Oblast were successful. An ammunition depot located on the territory of the base was indeed hit. (Status-6 X-account, 03.14.25)
  • Russian forces launched a mass drone attack on Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa late on March 20, injuring three people and damaging a high-rise apartment building and a shopping center, according to the regional governor, Oleh Kiper. He said there had been strikes in three locations that triggered fires, while three districts of the city were suffering from power cuts. (RFE/RL, 03.21.25)

Friday, March 21, 2025

• At least one person was killed and another seriously wounded in a rare midday Ukrainian drone strike on southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, authorities said March 21. (MT/AFP, 03.21.25)
• European natural gas prices jumped after an attack on a pumping station in Russia’s Kursk region, which formed part of an inactive link that sent fuel to the continent until recently. Benchmark futures rose as much as 6.2% in early trading on March 21 before easing gains. Russia and Ukraine accused each other of shelling the Sudzha gas pumping station in the southwestern Kursk region overnight, days after the two warring sides agreed to pause attacks on energy infrastructure. (MT/AFP, 03.21.25, Bloomberg, 03.21.25)
• Zelenskyy claimed that Russia is readying a new attack on Ukraine’s Sumy region, which borders Russia’s Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 03.21.25)
• Russia has likely sustained 900,000 casualties since beginning its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Of these, it is estimated that up to 250,000 Russians have been killed. 35,140 Russians were killed or wounded in Feb. 2025 alone. Every day in February 2025, Russia lost an average of 1,255 soldiers on the battlefield. (UKMOD X account, 03.21.25)
• The Russian Armed Forces have likely sustained approximately 900,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since invading Ukraine in 2022. Of these, it is likely 200,000–250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, Russia's largest losses since the Second World War. (UKMOD X account, 03.20.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, March 15, 2025:

• French President Emmanuel Macron said Russia should not have a veto of any deployment of foreign peacekeepers to Ukraine as part of a cease-fire deal. Macron also said any peacekeeping force would consist of "a few thousand troops per country" to be deployed at several locations. (RFE/RL, 03.16.25)
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese downplayed the scale of any Australian participation in a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine as allied leaders intensify efforts to secure a ceasefire. Albanese joined a virtual meeting hosted by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 15, when some 25 allied leaders agreed to tighten restrictions on Russia’s economy in a bid to draw Putin to the negotiating table. (Bloomberg, 03.16.25)

Sunday, March 16, 2025

• The leaders of 26 countries have agreed to move to an “operational phase” in planning for a multinational force to guarantee a ceasefire in Ukraine, Starmer has said, adding: “Let the guns fall silent.” Starmer said military planners would meet in London on March 20 to discuss how a truce could be guaranteed “by strong security arrangements through our coalition of the willing.” After hosting a video call of the 26 mainly European leaders on March 15, Starmer admitted the U.S. was still not prepared to provide a military “backstop” to ensure any peace was durable. (FT, 03.16.25)

Monday, March 17, 2025

• U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy claimed a temporary U.S. suspension on European allies sharing intelligence and military aid with Kyiv earlier this month did not have a “material effect” on Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia. (FT, 03.17.25)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

• In their phone call on March 18, Putin and Trump did not discuss stopping military aid to Ukraine during their phone conversations, Trump told Fox News. "We didn't talk about it, we didn't talk about it at all. We discussed a lot of things, but aid to Ukraine was never discussed," he said. (Istories, 03.19.25) For a detailed analysis of the WH’s and Kremlin’s readouts of the March 18 call, see this RM blog post.
• The U.K. and European Union are in talks to accelerate arms shipments to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, Britain’s foreign secretary told Bloomberg shortly before Putin agreed to a limited truce. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

• Germany's outgoing government has agreed to release additional 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) in military aid for Ukraine this year after lawmakers passed plans for a fiscal overhaul, a finance ministry document seen by Reuters on March 19 showed. (Reuters, 03.21.25)
• The U.K. government rejected a demand by Putin for Ukraine’s allies to suspend weapons supplies to Kyiv during any truce. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)
• European Union leaders tussled over weapons deliveries to Kyiv and who would represent them in U.S.-led diplomacy as the bloc struggled to formulate a strategy on Ukraine. An EU summit in Brussels was unable to agree on delivering €5 billion ($5.4 billion) to secure ammunition for Ukraine this year, as members including France and Italy balked at committing to specific financial volumes, according to European diplomats familiar with the talks. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)

Friday, March 21, 2025

• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is focusing a post-war European military guarantee for Ukraine on air and sea support, moving away from his previous priority of securing troops on the ground to enforce any peace deal with Russia. (Bloomberg, 03.21.25)
• Western allies began talks to hammer out the detailed military plans underpinning an Anglo-French-led peacekeeping force, stepping up preparations for a potential truce in Ukraine despite Putin’s rejection of a full ceasefire. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said the Baltic nation is prepared to deploy troops as part of a post-ceasefire mission to Ukraine as European allies grapple with how to maintain support for Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 03.21.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• European officials say the Trump administration has pared back its engagement with efforts to enforce sanctions on Russia as the U.S. pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine. The U.S. has been largely absent from several working groups set up by allies to crack down on attempts to get around sanctions imposed on the Kremlin, the officials said. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
• U.S. officials have told their European counterparts that the European Union will have to be involved in any Ukraine peace agreement given that Russia wants relief from sanctions imposed by the bloc as part of a deal, people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• The EU has decided against confiscating frozen Russian assets, opting instead to use interest from these funds to support Ukraine. The decision, confirmed in the conclusions of the EU summit on March 20, reflects concerns over legal, economic and strategic implications. Some member states argued that the assets, totaling over 200 billion euros, should remain frozen as leverage in future peace negotiations with Russia. The EU also plans to increase pressure on Moscow through additional sanctions and stricter enforcement of existing measures. (DW, 03.20.25)
• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said some 25 allied leaders agreed on March 15 to keep tightening restrictions on Russia’s economy in an effort to draw Putin to the negotiating table to secure a cease-fire in its war with Ukraine. “The effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy have been pretty profound,” Starmer told reporters. (Bloomberg, 03.15.25)
• The U.S. Justice Department has informed European officials that the United States is withdrawing from a multinational group created to investigate leaders responsible for the invasion of Ukraine, including Putin, according to a letter sent to members of the organization on March 17. (NYT, 03.17.25)
• Putin spoke at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Congress before his call with Trump on March 18 and claimed that some Western companies that left Russia following the February 2022 full-scale invasion now seek to return or are taking steps to return to Russia and that Russia will consider this return through the lens of prioritizing Russian businesses. Putin ordered the Russian Cabinet of Ministers to create a procedure for Western businesses to return to Russia. (ISW, 03.18.25) 
• Putin allowed a group of Western asset managers and hedge funds to offload Russian securities left in limbo by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one day before the Russian leader was due to speak to Trump in ceasefire talks. Investors including Jane Street, GMO and Franklin Templeton were approved to sell shares in Russian companies to a U.S. hedge fund called 683 Capital Partners, Putin said in a decree published on March 17. (FT, 03.17.25, MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• While Putin says he’d welcome the return of foreign companies that fled Russia over his war on Ukraine, his officials aren’t rolling out the red carpet to them. Western companies that sold Russian subsidiaries at “a throwaway price” shouldn’t be allowed to reclaim the assets cheaply under buyback options, Putin told business leaders in Moscow on March 18. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• “The Finance Ministry has calculated it, — Vladimir Putin noted with regards to sanctions on Russia. — I can tell you with confidence, with confidence!.. 28,595 sanctions against individuals and legal entities. This is more than all the sanctions against all the countries against which sanctions were imposed, and many times higher!” (Kommersant, 03.18.25)
• Russia will need to replace hundreds of foreign-made civil aircraft in the coming years as its fleet of Western planes reaches the end of its lifespan, warned Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec. At least 200 of the remaining Western planes operated by Russian carriers — cut off from maintenance and spare parts due to wartime sanctions — will need to be retired and replaced with domestically produced aircraft by 2030, Chemezov told reporters Russia’s commercial fleet includes around 700 Boeing and Airbus jets, which handle 90% of the country’s air travel. (MT/AFP, 03.19.25)
  • Russia’s Superjet airliner completed its first test flight using the domestically produced PD-8 engine, state defense and industrial conglomerate Rostec announced March 17. (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• A Russian court has canceled the legal protection of the Ericsson trademark, transferring it to the Russian company Rusklimat. (Kommersant, 03.20.25)
• For nearly three years, a $325 million, 106-meter super yacht has been at the center of a legal battle in U.S. federal court over its ownership. The U.S. government claims the Amadea, belongs to Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, sanctioned in 2018 for Russia’s global activities. The Justice Department seized the yacht, moving it from Fiji to San Diego, incurring taxpayer-funded maintenance costs. However, Eduard Khudainatov's lawyers argued he was the rightful owner and the U.S. case lacked evidence. On March 18, a Manhattan federal court approved the yacht's auction after dismissing Khudainatov's ownership claims. (RFE/RL, 03.18.25)
• A sanctioned former Russian governor of a strategically important port city in Crimea is standing trial in London for flouting the financial restrictions. Dmitrii Ovsiannikov, the Governor of Sevastopol between 2016 and 2019, along with his wife and brother are accused of buying a Mercedes Benz and paying thousands of pounds for his children’s private school fee while under sanctions, prosecutors said on the first day of the trial. Ovsiannikov was first sanctioned in 2017 by the European Union and then by the U.K. in December 2020. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• The next president of the International Olympic Committee said she would not categorically ban countries from the games over international conflicts, opening the door for Russia to return to the international sports competition. “I think you have to take each situation into account,” Kirsty Coventry told Sky News in an interview posted March 21. (Politico, 03.21.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:¹

Saturday, March 15, 2025

• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on Western nations to ramp up pressure on Putin, saying Russia’s president will “sooner or later” have to engage in serious discussions over a ceasefire in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.15.25)
• Trump on March 15 said he was naming Keith Kellogg his special envoy for Ukraine, narrowing the retired general’s portfolio after reports he was sidelined during recent U.S.-Russia talks at the Kremlin’s request. (Bloomberg, 03.15.25)

Sunday, March 16, 2025

• Trump said negotiations over a U.S.-backed cease-fire proposal had continued over the weekend and that discussions had included “dividing up certain assets.” “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on March 16 evening. “Maybe we can. Maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.” "I think we'll be talking about land ... we'll be talking about power plants," Trump said in reference to his planned phone conversation with Putin. "I think we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia. We're already talking about that — dividing up certain assets." Trump said he expected much of the discussion with Putin on March 18 to focus on territory that would be ceded to Russia, and on control of nuclear power plants. (NYT, 03.17.25, MT/AFP, 03.16.25, NYT, 03.18.25)
• U.S. officials expressed optimism on March 16 that a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire deal could be reached within weeks, following talks in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who met with Putin, described negotiations as "positive" and noted progress, though the situation remains "highly complicated." Ukraine may need to make concessions for a deal. Key issues include the Kursk region, a nuclear reactor and border security. Witkoff dismissed Macron’s claim that Russia isn’t sincerely seeking peace. Witkoff also said that Moscow and Washington are discussing access to Black Sea ports and issues related to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as part of their negotiations over the war in Ukraine (MT/AFP, 03.16.25, FT, 03.17.25, Meduza, 03.17.25)
• U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz stated March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions. (ISW, 03.16.25)
• “Plan A is: Get the shooting to stop,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio March 16, noting the U.S. administration’s main goal is to secure a quick ceasefire before moving on to broader talks about a settlement to permanently end Russia’s war on Ukraine. (Politico, 03.18.25)

Monday, March 17, 2025

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko claimed in an interview with Kremlin-affiliated outlet Izvestiya on that Russia continues to demand that Ukraine be a neutral state and that NATO states refuse to accept Ukraine as a member. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated to RBK Ukraine on March 17 that no country should have a "veto" over Ukraine's choice to participate in alliances, including the EU or NATO. (ISW, 03.17.25)
• The Kremlin continues to reject the prospect of European peacekeepers in Ukraine, in opposition to U.S. and Ukrainian positions on the matter and impeding the establishment of a stable, lasting peace to end the war. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko  stated March 17 that Russia will not accept peacekeepers from the EU, NATO or individual Western states in post-war Ukraine as Russia considers all of these possible peacekeeping contingents to be "NATO contingents.” (ISW, 03.17.25)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025 (before the Putin-Trump call):

• The White House is reportedly considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory as part of a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, according to Semafor. The U.S. is also exploring the possibility of urging the U.N. to do the same. (Meduza, 03.18.25)

• Trump announced that “many elements” of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine have already been agreed upon ahead of a scheduled call with Putin. (Meduza, 03.18.25) 
• Putin is demanding a suspension of all weapons deliveries to Ukraine during a ceasefire proposed by Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• Ukraine won’t accept any peace deal that compromises its sovereignty or territory or restricts its ability to join military alliances, Ukraine’s foreign minister said March 18, ahead of an expected phone call between Trump and Putin. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• On March 18, before a telephone conversation with Trump, Putin came to the House of Music on Paveletskaya to take part in the XXXIV Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP). He delivered parts of his remarks behind closed doors. When doing so, he disclosed, according to some RSPP members, that participants in the U.S.-Russian negotiations are discussing Russia’s demand that Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions be recognized as part of Russia. If that demand is met in the near future, then Russia will not lay claims to Odesa and other Ukrainian territories. (Kommersant, 03.18.25)
  • Before his call with Trump on March 18, Putin “made it clear” to Russian business leaders that they should not expect a swift peace agreement in the war with Ukraine, the Telegram channel Faridaily reports, citing two sources who attended the meeting and another who heard about it from participants. Putin delivered this message during the closed portion of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) congress, an annual gathering of Russia’s top business lobby, held the same day as his call with Trump. “Let me put it this way: the president advised us not to be naive and to understand just how many people and interests are involved in the ongoing processes,” one attendee told Faridaily. Another participant said Putin believes that even if sanctions were lifted, the U.S. and its allies “would still find ways to pressure” Russia. A third source summarized Putin’s remarks: “This whole machine [the war in Ukraine and sanctions] won’t be reversed so easily.” (Meduza, 03.21.25)

Tuesday, March 18, 2025 (during and after the Putin-Trump call) 

• In his call with Putin, which lasted two-and-a-half hours on March 18, Trump failed to secure the Russian leader’s consent for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, with Putin agreeing instead to suspend attacks on energy infrastructure. The U.S. and Russian readouts of the call revealed substantive differences between the two sides’ interpretations of the content and outcomes of the March 18 conversation. While the White House version claims that the leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with a 30-day energy and infrastructure ceasefire, the Kremlin version refers to an energy infrastructure ceasefire only. Likewise, the Kremlin readout includes items not mentioned in the White House readout, including a claim that the two leaders discussed “a complete cessation of providing Kyiv with foreign military aid.”² The Kremlin's version, more than double the length of the White House readout, provides considerably more detail about the topics discussed, signaling Putin's greater interest in unfreezing the bilateral relationship now that the U.S. no longer treats him as a pariah, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict notwithstanding.² In a clear effort to encourage Trump to move with Putin toward further normalizing the U.S.-Russian relationship, the Kremlin's readout says the Russian leader praised his U.S. counterpart during the call for “striving to achieve the noble goal of ending the hostilities,” a panegyric not reciprocated in the White House readout. (RM, 03.20.25)
  • Trump said: “It’s a big thing — an immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructure.” “It will lead to other things,” the president said. “I think we’ll end up making a deal. It’s a good start.” Trump also revealed that the March 18 call with Putin was not the first conversation the two leaders have had in recent weeks.  “It was a very good call,” Trump said. “I think it’s the beginning of something good. The beginning really took place three or four weeks ago.” (Washingtonexaminer.com, 03.18.25)
  • Tatiana Stanovaya, Russia analyst with the Carnegie Russian Eurasia Center, said the most significant outcome was the implicit acceptance of U.S.-Russia cooperation on key international and bilateral issues, such as the Middle East. "This marks an obvious victory for Putin, who seeks to decouple bilateral relations from the Ukraine war," she wrote on X. (WP, 03.19.25)
  • Delegations from Russia and Ukraine are set to hold separate talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia on March 24, officials said on March 20. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, the U.S.-Russia talks will take place in Riyadh and focus on “safety of navigation in the Black Sea.” The consultations were agreed to with U.S. national security advisor Mike Waltz on March 19, Ushakov said. The Russian delegation will include Grigory Karasin, the chairman of Russia’s Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, and Sergei Beseda, an adviser to the director of Russia’s FSB, he added.[3] Ushakov’s comments hinted at the possible revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Zelenskyy on March 20 said a Ukrainian delegation will hold another round of talks with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia on March 24, as well. (Meduza, 03.21.25)
  • Ukraine considers the next meeting in Saudi Arabia as bilateral with U.S. representatives. No contacts between the Ukrainian team and the Russians are expected. (RBC.ua, 03.21.25)

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

• Zelenskyy agreed March 19 to a partial ceasefire with Russia focused on "energy and other civilian infrastructure." Zelenskyy, who spoke after an hour-long phone call with Trump, said it was a first step in what the Ukrainian leader said he hoped would be "lasting peace" more than three years after his country was invaded by Moscow. (WP, 03.20.25)
• Ukraine cannot end the war with Russia along the contact line, Zelenskyy said. In some places, it separates populated areas, he explained. “I told President Trump honestly: ‘Do we want Berlin, do we want many such cities?’” the president noted. (RBC.ua, 03.19.25)
• As of March 19, Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire. (ISW, 03.19.25)

Thursday, March 20, 2025

• “We are just a breath away from a full ceasefire, and then we can begin to talk about not just peace for a week or six months, but an enduring peace that the people of Ukraine and Russia and the world can rely on, and that is what America has helped facilitate, and that’s what we’re continuing to do each day,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told anchor Nichole Berlie on “NewsNation Now.” (The Hill, 03.20.25)
• There is little appetite in Ukraine and Russia for major concessions, according to a U.S. firm's analysis of online posts. But a minority of Russians want to keep fighting until Ukraine's president is overthrown Combined with new polling in Ukraine, the analysis by a Massachusetts-based company, FilterLabs, shows how difficult selling the terms of a U.S.-brokered peace settlement will be to both the Russian and Ukrainian public. (NYT, 03.20.25)
• Leaders from European countries will meet in Paris next week to discuss their position on Ukraine and demands on the peace process, according to people familiar with the plans. Germany, Italy and Poland will be some of the European Union countries involved, as well as non-EU nations such as the U.K. and Canada. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)

Friday, March 21, 2025

• Trump said March 21 that he expects a full ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war "pretty soon." "I believe we're going to pretty soon have a full ceasefire," Trump told reporters at the White House. He said a "contract in terms of dividing up the lands, etc., etc." is being negotiated in the war, now in its fourth year. "It's being negotiated as we speak," he added. (AA.com, 03.21.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO plans to ask European allies and Canada to increase their stocks of weaponry and equipment by about 30% in the next few years. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
• Europe needs to integrate its armed forces and develop a regional command structure in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda, former Italian premier Mario Draghi said. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• France will add an extra 1.7 billion euros ($1.85 billion) to defense expenditure via public-investment vehicles as European countries prepare for a shakeup of the continent's security order. (WSJ, 03.21.25)
• Estonia’s government agreed to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense in 2026, Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in Tallinn. “The Russian threat is real,” Michal told journalists at a news conference, adding “evidently 5% will not be sufficient” in the years ahead. Michal previously pledged to aim to reach the 5% target in January, but he had not yet reached an agreement with his government. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• Poland and the three Baltic states gave notice on March 18th that they would withdraw from the Ottawa convention banning anti-personnel landmines. (The Economist, 03.19.25)
• Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, voted to loosen constitutional debt restrictions for defense spending, and to set up a €500bn ($550bn) fund for infrastructure. (The Economist, 03.19.25)
• Russia significantly stepped up its sabotage campaign over the past two years as it sought to pressure Europe and the United States to curb their support for Ukraine, according to a new study released on Tuesday. The report, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, found that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024. The report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that about 27% of Russia’s attacks were against transportation targets, 21% against industrial targets and 21% against undersea cables, pipelines and other infrastructure. Overall, the study tracked 52 separate acts of sabotage from 2022 to the present. (NYT, 03.18.25)
• Lithuanian prosecutors on Monday accused Russia of orchestrating an arson attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius last year, calling it “an act of terrorism.” (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is “disestablishing” the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, a key office responsible for high-level strategic analysis, according to a memo obtained by Breaking Defense. (Breakingdefense, 03.13.25)
• Oleg Gordievsky, the long-standing KGB double agent who defected to Britain, has died aged 86. (BBC, 03.21.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Donald Trump expressed caution over closer ties between China and Russia, outlining plans to improve relations with two countries that have united in opposing the U.S. on the world stage. "I don't want Russia and China to get together," the U.S. leader said, adding that "we're looking to get along" with both countries. “As a student of history, which I am—and I’ve watched it all—the first thing you learn is you don’t want Russia and China to get together,” the U.S. leader told Fox News, in comments that came shortly after he wrapped talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Republican leader cast doubt over the foundation of Moscow and Beijing’s bilateral relationship, saying it wasn’t “natural.” “They’re probably friendly now, but we’re going to be friendly with both,” he added. (Bloomberg, 03.18,25, TASS, 03.18.25)
• Moscow has expressed its readiness to collaboratively support Beijing and respond to security challenges together, according to Alexander Bortnikov, the director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). He made this statement during a meeting with Wang Xiaohong, the China’s Minister of Public Security, in Beijing. Bortnikov emphasized that Russia is prepared to "resolutely support each other and jointly address security challenges" alongside China. (TASS, 03.21.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• In its statement on the March 18 Trump-Putin call, the White House focused on issues beyond Ukraine, saying that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin “further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application.” The sole remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia expires next February, and negotiations on a replacement have not begun. In his first term, Mr. Trump said he would not enter a new arms control treaty without China also signing on to limits, though Beijing has expressed no interest as it expands its arsenal. The Kremlin’s readout said with regard to this issue: “Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also addressed some other international issues, including the situation in the Middle East and in the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in the crisis spots and establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security.” (NYT, 03.18.25, RM, 03.18.25) For detailed analysis of WH’s and Kremlin’s readouts of the March 18 call see this RM blog post.
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will “lay the keel” for the first in the next generation of the UK’s nuclear-armed submarines. The premier will formally mark the beginning of the construction of a new Dreadnought-class after earlier this week secretly meeting submariners returning from a six-month nuclear deterrence patrol. The cost of replacing the UK’s nuclear submarines has spiraled and currently stands at £36.7 billion, up from an estimate of £31.5 billion in 2021, according to figures from the defense ministry. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Three U.S.-sanctioned ships that left Russia this month briefly signaled Syria as destination before changing course. Aquatica, an Aframax, sailed from Murmansk on March 1 carrying 680,000 barrels of Novy Port crude, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel was indicating Baniyas as destination at the start of its journey before switching to China on Wednesday. Sakina, a Suezmax with 1 million barrels of crude, left Murmansk a week after Aquatica, but changed destination to Egypt’s Port Said. Separately, Sabina departed the same terminal this week, initially signaling Syria. It now also shows Port Said as its destination. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff denied Russia broke an agreement not to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and hailed the pact as a breakthrough that could end Moscow’s global isolation and revive energy projects such as the Nord Stream 2. “President Putin issued an order within 10 minutes of his call with the president directing Russian forces not to be attacking any Ukrainian energy infrastructure. And any attacks that happened last night would have happened before that order was given,” Witkoff said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “I tend to believe that President Putin is operating in good faith.” (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin seems confident that pipeline flows of natural gas to Europe could be stepped up if a U.S.-brokered deal to end the war in Ukraine is agreed—raising questions about whether the continent is willing to reverse course and revive that relationship. “If, say, the U.S. and Russia agree on cooperation in the energy sector, then a gas pipeline for Europe could be ensured,” Putin said at a briefing in Moscow on March 13. (Bloomberg, 03.15.25)
• LNG supplies from Russia to China fell by 22.5% in January-February year-on-year to around 923,000 tons, the General Administration of Customs of China reported. In value terms, China’s LNG imports from Russia decreased by 27.8% to $570.79 million, according to figures released. Russia is the fourth-biggest LNG supplier to China. (TASS, 03.20.25)
• Turkey is showing signs of diversifying its crude supplies—including importing Brazilian oil—after its largest refiner moved to restrict purchases of Russian barrels in the wake of sweeping U.S. sanctions. Of the roughly 650,000 barrels a day of crude that Turkey imported so far this month, just 19% is from Russia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)
• The U.S. has agreed to extend a sanction waiver, which would allow Turkey to continue buying Russian natural gas until May, according to a Turkish official with direct knowledge on the matter. The three-month exemption granted to Turkey was set to expire on March 20. More than 45% of the country’s gas imports came from Russia last year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the national energy regulator. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
• German customs officials have confiscated a tanker carrying 100,000 tons of oil, which they claim is a part of Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet,” weekly news magazine Der Spiegel reported Friday, citing anonymous sources. (MT/AFP, 03.21.25)

Climate change:

• Unseasonably warm weather triggered ice breakups and flooding in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region, located in the Ural Mountains. Rescuers evacuated 70 residents, including 20 children, in the city of Asha, around 260 kilometers (165 miles) from the Kazakh border, the Emergency Situations Ministry said. Images and videos showed rescue crews using inflatable boats to transport people and animals through flooded streets. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• In its statement on the March 18 Trump-Putin call, the White House “greed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.” The Kremlin’s read out said “addressed a wide range of areas where the two countries could establish cooperation, discussing several ideas aimed at fostering potential ties of mutual interest in economy and energy.”(RM, 03.19.25) For detailed analysis of WH’s and Kremlin’s readouts of the March 18 call see this RM blog post.
• The head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund announced Tuesday that he plans to meet with billionaire and SpaceX founder Elon Musk “soon.” “There will certainly be discussions with Musk soon,” Kirill Dmitriev said during the annual congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a major business lobby. “We believe he is a unique leader committed to advancing humanity as a whole.” Dmitriev said he had discussed potential U.S.-Russian cooperation on Mars exploration with the head of Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin is “likely to happen,” U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff says in an interview on Bloomberg TV. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)
• The Kremlin stated it is too early to determine when the next meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump will occur. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that no timeframe has been set, but preparations will follow if both leaders decide to meet. The announcement comes as Moscow and Washington work to revive bilateral relations and restore dialogue mechanisms. Trump confirmed plans to speak with Putin by phone on Tuesday. (Meduza, 03.17.25) 
• One office the order seeks to eliminate is the U.S. Agency for Global Media, the parent for Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Those organizations were established to emphasize democratic values by providing news in countries where a free press is threatened, including Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine. The organizations employ thousands of journalists. (WSJ, 03.17.25)
  • Trump's dismantling of U.S.-funded international media outlets such as Voice of America could put their journalists at risk, including nine currently jailed worldwide, Reporters Without Borders warned Monday. (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
  • European Union politicians said they are continuing their push into possible support for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL, 03.18.25)
  • Moscow is elated by President Donald Trump’s moves to gut U.S.-funded media outlets Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America, high-ranking Russian officials and diplomats told The Moscow Times. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s ruble strengthened to its highest level in more than eight months against the U.S. dollar on Monday, buoyed by hopes that upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could lead to progress on ending the war in Ukraine and a warming of relations between Washington and Moscow. By midday in Moscow, the ruble had gained 1.16% to trade at 84.5 per dollar, according to spot foreign exchange market data published by Reuters. The ruble has surged almost a third against the dollar this year on hopes of an end to the three-year conflict. (MT/AFP, 03.17.25, FT, 03.16.25)
• Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Tuesday that Russian authorities plan to sell off state-seized assets to boost revenues. “We plan to intensify the privatization of property coming into the treasury,” Siluanov told a board meeting of Russia’s Federal Agency for State Property Management (Rosimushchestvo), according to the state-run news agency TASS. Rosimushchestvo oversees the temporary administration of seized assets. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)
• The Bank of Russia kept the key interest rate at 21% on Friday. The move was forecast by all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank had maintained its harsh rhetoric at last month’s meeting, suggesting more rate hikes were on the cards. Achieving the 4% inflation target will require a long “period of maintaining tight monetary conditions in the economy,” policymakers said in a statement Friday. (Bloomberg, 03.21.25)
• The Russian Central Bank has proposed restricting cryptocurrency transactions to the wealthiest individuals, preventing most citizens from trading digital assets unless they meet stringent financial criteria. Under the proposed framework, only individuals classified as "especially qualified investors" would be able to buy and sell cryptocurrency. This status would be granted to those with financial assets exceeding 100 million rubles ($1.2 million) or an annual income above 50 million rubles ($580,000). (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• Earlier this month, Russia’s largest credit rating agency, ACRA, published a new study titled “Structural Changes in the Russian Economy in 2022–2024.” The biggest growth—18.5%—was in the public administration sector, which began expanding in the first quarter of 2022 and has continued to grow, with the pace accelerating in 2024. This trend was entirely predictable: a look at the country’s consolidated budget, in which healthcare has taken the biggest hit, contracting by 5.1%—despite the fact that demand for medical services has increased due to the war. (Meduza, 03.21.25)
• Russian tech giant VK posted a staggering net loss of 94.94 billion rubles ($1.12 billion) in 2024—nearly three times the 34.29 billion rubles ($405 million) it lost in 2023—despite achieving record-high revenue, according to its annual report published Thursday. The company reported a total revenue of 147.57 billion rubles ($1.74 billion) in 2024, a significant increase from 120.3 billion rubles ($1.42 billion) the previous year. (MT/AFP, 03.20.25)

• Telegram provides Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with data on users suspected of terrorism under Article 205 of the Russian Criminal Code, according to a ruling by the Supreme Court of Bashkortostan. (iStories, 03.18.25) 

• The governor of Russia’s Nenets Autonomous District, Yury Bezdudny, announced Tuesday that he is stepping down ahead of the region’s indirect gubernatorial elections later this year. Bezdudny was among five governors expected to be replaced ahead of September’s regional elections. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)
• Public opinion on Alexei Navalny’s activities has remained largely unchanged over the past year, according to a Levada Center poll. Half of respondents disapproved of his work, while 10% approved, and 27% were unaware of him or his activities. Negative sentiment peaked in July 2021 but gradually declined afterward, while approval ratings were highest in September 2020 before also decreasing. (Levada Center, 03.18.25)
• Two-thirds of Russians report having no savings, a 4-point increase since August 2024, while only a third say they have savings, a 3-point decrease, according to a Levada Center poll. The findings highlight growing financial strain among Russian households. (Levada Center, 03.20.25)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian courts last year confiscated 500 billion rubles ($6 billion) of property illegally acquired by officials, according to the country’s top prosecutor. The haul was achieved after prosecutors filed cases with the courts, Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said at a meeting of his office attended by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday. The number of identified major corruption crimes committed increased over the year, he said. Russia’s authorities have significantly escalated efforts to fight corruption since the invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to limit skyrocketing budget spending. The seized assets add significantly to available financial resources. (Bloomberg, 03.19.25)
• The St. Petersburg Garrison Military Court has ordered the arrest of Captain First Rank Oleg Lopatiev, chief of the Navy radio engineering service, on charges of accepting an eight-million-ruble bribe. Lopatiev allegedly received the bribe for facilitating state defense procurement contracts with JSC Izumrud. The FSB’s military counterintelligence department detained him, and the court placed him in pretrial detention on March 17. The case highlights ongoing corruption issues within Russia’s defense sector. (Zona.Media, 03.19.25)

• Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been allowed to temporarily leave France, where he is charged with multiple infractions linked to allegedly enabling organized crime, sources told AFP. He flew out to Dubai, sources said. (MT/AFP, 03.16.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday condemned Israel's renewed bombardment of the Gaza Strip, the deadliest since a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect in January. At least 413 people were killed in the latest strikes, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza. (MT/AFP, 03.18.25)
• The Romanian far-right leader who took the baton from barred presidential candidate Călin Georgescu has struck a more conciliatory tone, saying that Europe needs a united front against Russia. George Simion was cleared to run in May’s elections after judges barred pro-Russia frontrunner Georgescu, citing the threat Georgescu had posed to the constitutional order. “Putin’s Russia was and is one of the biggest threats for the European states, especially for us, for the Baltic states and for Poland,” Simion told the Financial Times. “We need unity, but not just in Europe: also between Europe and the United States, we need the same approach.” (FT, 03.17.25)
• A group of 65 Russian dissidents who relocated to Spain last year say they have been left in legal limbo after Spanish authorities allegedly failed to follow through on promises of providing residency status, El Pais reported Monday. The exiled activists, who included former regional coordinators for Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, received tourist visas on humanitarian grounds to travel to Spain last summer after diplomatic outreach from Madrid. (MT/AFP, 03.17.25)
• A Moscow court has toughened an embezzlement conviction against French banker Philippe Delpal, changing his initial suspended sentence to jail time, Russian state media reported Wednesday. Delpal, a former senior executive at the Baring Vostok investment group, was sentenced in 2021 to four and a half years of probation for allegedly embezzling funds from Vostochny Bank, which was partially owned at the time by a businessman linked to President Vladimir Putin. (MT/AFP, 03.19.25)

Ukraine:

• President Donald Trump proposed that the U.S. acquire Ukrainian power plants, including nuclear facilities, during a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling it the "best protection" for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and citing American expertise in electricity and utilities as the best protection for the facilities. This proposal comes amid efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, including a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes. However, both sides accused each other of violating the truce shortly after it was announced. Zelensky expressed openness to U.S. investment in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant but emphasized Ukraine’s sovereignty. "The United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure," according to the administration statement. (WSJ, 03.20.25, Meduza, 03.19.25)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy ruled out ceding control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, but left open the possibility of the U.S. investing in them following a phone call with Donald Trump. Speaking to reporters in Oslo on Thursday, the Ukrainian leader said he hadn’t discussed the ownership of the nation’s 15 nuclear power units with the U.S. president and said their control amounted to a “guarantee of security” for his war-torn country. "President Trump asked me: 'What do you think about this plant?' I told him that if it does not remain Ukrainian, it won't function for anyone," Zelenskyy said at a news conference in Oslo. "It is illegal. It simply won't work." (WP, 03.20.25, Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
    • Ukraine has earlier told the United States that processing the minerals would be viable only if the Zaporizhzhia plant was back under its control, according to the two Ukrainians, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks between Ukraine and the Trump administration. The currently serving Ukrainian official said the issue came up again last week during a top-level U.S.-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential cease-fire. (NYT, 03.19.25)
    • The U.S. could lead the operation of a nuclear plant in Ukraine “with very little problem” if the political decision is made to do so, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
    • Following the phone call between the two leaders on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt told reporters that Trump had suggested to Zelenskyy that “American ownership” would be the “best protection” for Ukrainian power plants. (Meduza, 03.21.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump says the United States soon will sign a minerals and natural resources deal with Ukraine as negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to end the war continue. Trump told reporters at the White House on March 20 that his efforts to achieve a peace deal for the country were going "pretty well" after his talks this week with the leaders of the warring countries. "We're doing very well with regard to Ukraine and Russia. And one of the things we are doing is signing a deal very shortly with respect to rare earths with Ukraine," Trump said. (RFE/RL, 03.21.25)
  • Trump said he would soon sign the deal. “One of the things we are doing is signing a deal very shortly with respect to rare earths with Ukraine,” Trump said Thursday during an education event at the White House. (Bloomberg, 03.20.25)
  • The Trump administration is seeking new terms for U.S. access to critical minerals and energy assets in Ukraine, widening its economic demands on Kyiv as it pushes for a peace deal with Russia. Washington wants Kyiv to agree to detailed provisions about who owns and controls a joint investment fund, and to a broader scope, potentially covering U.S. ownership of other economic assets such as Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, two Ukrainian officials said. (FT, 03.21.25)
• The figures who represented the Trump administration in secret talks with political opponents of Zelenskyy included former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and two of the U.S. president’s relatives, Politico reported on Tuesday. According to Politico’s sources, the negotiations involved: Donald Trump Jr., the U.S. president’s son Jared Kushner, the U.S. president’s son-in-law Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff. Politico had previously reported that four “senior aides” to Donald Trump had taken part in talks with Zelenskyy’s opponents over possible early elections in Ukraine but had not disclosed their names. The outlet noted that Steve Witkoff is the only member of the group with an official U.S. government role. (Meduza, 03.19.25)
• The Security Service of Ukraine has exposed another criminal scheme in the Kyiv City State Administration (KCSA). The defendants appropriated almost UAH 60 million, which was intended for palliative care for seriously ill people. This was stated in a message from the SBU on the Telegram channel on Friday, March 21. (Korrespondent.net, 03.21.25)
• A serviceman of the Belotserkovsky zonal department of the Military Law Enforcement Service was detained with a bribe of $10,000 for assisting in the placement of a person for military service in the rear unit with subsequent removal from the military registration, the Supreme Administrative Service reports to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (Interfax.ukraine, 03.17.25). Machine-translated.
• Ukraine’s High Council of Justice has dismissed Judge Pavlo Vovk, the head of the liquidated Kyiv District Administrative Court (OASK), who has been charged with creating a criminal organization and attempting to seize power, according to an official announcement published on March 18. Vovk was held responsible for "committing a significant disciplinary offense, gross or systematic neglect of duties that is incompatible with the status of a judge or revealed his incompatibility with the position he holds." Vovk has become a symbol of systemic corruption and judicial impunity in Ukraine. He and other judges from his court face charges of usurpation of power, obstruction of justice, organized crime, and abuse of authority. (Kyiv Independent, 03.18.25)
• The former Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Deputy Head of the RDA has been notified of suspicion of abuse of office and forgery, which resulted in losses of UAH 27 million. This is reported by NABU, according to UNN. The investigation established that in 2018, the head of one of the departments of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, who later became the Deputy Minister, and the Deputy Head of the RDA illegally ensured the payment of UAH 27 million of state aid to an agricultural enterprise as compensation for expenses allegedly incurred for the purchase of planting material. In fact, such products were not purchased, but were a contribution to the authorized capital of the enterprise from the sole founder. (UNN, 03.19.25)
• Veon Ltd. has agreed to a deal to list Kyivstar in New York, giving Ukraine’s largest mobile network operator a pro-forma valuation of $2.21 billion. (Bloomberg, 03.18.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Poland has charged a Belarusian with espionage and sabotage on behalf of Russia following an arson attack on a large retail store in Warsaw last year. (FT, 03.16.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “What is clear is that Trump can’t stand us,” a Ukrainian government source says, “and that in seven weeks we have switched from being allies to customers, and with largely imagined debts.” (Economist, 03.18.25)
• “Ukraine’s larger hope for a viable future lies in its relationship with Europe. A peace agreement should confirm its right to strengthen economic relations with the European Union on a path to membership. Over the next decade or two, the EU’s trajectory—from its economic growth to its military development to its role as a rising geopolitical player—vis-à-vis that of Putin’s authoritarian, security-first Russia will shape the chessboard on which Ukraine, caught between the two, can operate. If a lasting peace is achieved, Ukraine can hope to follow in the footsteps of West Germany, South Korea, and Finland to become a miracle of the 21st century,” Harvard professor Graham Allison wrote. (FP, 03.18.25)
• Meghan O’Sullivan, director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said: “Trump is very focused on ending the war, ending the violence, and doing so in very short order… And so he’ll be kind of interested in the broad outcome of the call more than any details. Putin on the other hand has very different objectives, he’s not interested in a quick end, and in fact he’s doing comparatively well on the battlefield. And so a quick end and an immediate ceasefire isn’t really in his interests. What he would like to see, the better outcome, is a reflection of the fact that for President Putin this call is not just about Ukraine. It's about his larger agenda vis-à-vis the Europeans.” (CNBC, 03.18.25)
• “And from someone such as myself, who I think has a bias against Trump, it feels to me like Putin has agreed to buy billions of dollars of Trump coin and that in exchange they've decided they're going to have two spheres of influence between two autocrats and carve up the world for their own financial benefit,” Fiona Hill, former Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs on the National Security Council and member of Harvard University's Board of Overseers, said. “Steal man a more logical explanation of the current complexion of Trump as it relates to Ukraine.” (Apple podcast, 03.20.25)

Footnotes

1. For an up-to-date list of Russia’s demands, see: “Here's what Russia has demanded to end its war in Ukraine,” Mary Ilyushina and Sammy Westfall, WP, 03.18.25.
2. The issue of whether Putin and Trump discussed U.S. military aid to Ukraine during the call remained disputed as of March 19, 2025.
3. Beseda, now an advisor to the FSB director, previously provided inaccurate intelligence that influenced Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. His resignation in 2024 followed internal power struggles within the FSB. (iStories, 03.20.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP.